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Monday, October 10, 2011

Is market rational?

Monday morning ... everyone is hoping that KLCI will rebound further, while budget was out. Many telling that normally KLCI will in profit-taking mode after budget annoucements. Well, while such speculations are short-term in nature(creating nervousness in many too), I will prefer to look at the broader picture. Is there anything there to offer us to take a position? Otherwise, since it is downtrending, it is a no buy?

Tenaga is showing strength. Going into such a giant will not lose you money, not much at least even you enter today. It might be slightly late, but, hey ... your risk is still lower than taking a position in ... say, KEuro?

It is logic ... it is natural logic, yet defying all the logic and denying all the current circumstances, many will still rush to grab KEuro later, for example. That is human ... that is the fact about KLSE-kaki and they could be young at age 20+ or older at 60+. This is our KLSE-kaki ... without experience in markets, without any fundamental knowledge or technical charts to help them. Without even simple understanding of market-psychology. Rushing in with greed in their mind, clouding the simple common sense or logic ... only to get burnt and sell during some panic-fearing situation. These cycle repeats ... again and again, placing us the market-cycle which I tried to explain to those listening ...



Note : I do lilke the dance above. Haha ... those are the graphs, actually.

10.20 am : KLCI in red

AsiaEP : Some 'tips' that someone going to goreng her last week. Up today due to the goreng news? As far as I am concerned, it is VERY risky to play with such fire ... so, it is not touch. That is me la ...

Sozo : Up today ... saw her in The Edge yesterday that she has plenty of cash in hands. Wait ... what is the risk? China-stock factor!! With many goreng their accounts, we could not determine how real what we are reading. At least I do know GenM or YTLPower or PChem are in  cash-positive. Sozo? Hmm ...

KEuro : At 1.02, down 6% plus this morning ... well, it was pushed up last Friday, right? So, a mere profit-taking(for us to go in to buy at cheaper rate) or will be pressed further down from current level?

Tenaga : Also down ... by 13 cents now, losing 2.4%. Well, still better than KEuro? Can we actually comparing these two? Hmm .. in what sense?

MudaJaya : At 2.14 ... down 4% plus.  Sold at 2.30 last week ... monitoring to see if I will buy her back?

What is Psychology?

It is a scientific study on human behaviours and thinking.

What is focused on in A-Levels Psychology?

• In AS, students study, analyse, evaluate and apply classical researches that has helped shape psychology today. The main areas that are focused on are Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Physiological Psychology, Developmental Psychology and Individual Differences.

Social Psychology – the study of people interacting with others individually or in groups

Cognitive Psychology – the study of how and why people think, remember or learn in certain ways

Physiological Psychology – studying the relationship between the physical operation of the brain and the behavior and thoughts of an individual

Developmental Psychology – the study of human development and the changes that they go through (eg. emotional, cognitive, personality, etc.)

Individual Differences – the study of how humans differ and what factors contribute to these differences (eg. culture, religion, etc.)

• In A2, there are two applied areas that are covered. Health Psychology and Industrial / Organisational Psychology.

Health Psychology is very relevant to students who wish to take up Health Sciences (eg. Medicine, pharmacy). Students learn about how to improve doctor-patient relationship, adherence to medical advice, how to encourage healthy behaviours and so on.

Industrial / Organisational Psychology is relevant to students who wish to go into Human Resource or the corporate world in general. They learn how to motivate employees, increase job satisfaction, work in teams, etc.

The above is taken from my e-mail ... written by a psychology-lecturer who is teaching few students who are doiong the subject. It is one of the most un-popular subject!! Perhaps, Malaysian students do not like to THINK and WRITE essays.

Time for lunch.

By OSK : Remain Defensive for now. Given volatile market conditions, it is difficult for us to forecast when the KLCI may fall past the 1300 pts level although a break below is possible in October itself. As such, our recommendation is no longer „time-based‟ but rather „level-based‟. For now, with 1300 pts still some 6% away from current levels, we remain NEUTRAL on the market with our call still focused on defensive stocks as per our Top 10 Buy list below.

The chosen ones : KPJ, Supermax, QL, GAB, MediaC, TRC, AirAsia, PetGas, TM and Axiata.

5.10 pm : KLCI closed 3 points lower, HSI flat, USD vs MYR down to 3.15 now. Gold up at 1660 now with Crude oil above USD82.


NTPM : Well, a good stock to trade for quick hit-n-run when it was heavily traded. But how to catch this one? It is not in my list, so I dont know ...

Jupiter : It opens a new branch at Subang Jaya SS19. I went to see the 'boss' there. Then, opened a trading a/c --- to get freebies(got umbrella --- sediakan payung sebelum hujan case. haha).

Then, I saw a customer there 'busy' clicking on charts. Seeing that he is quite friendly, I gave him my blog-address. Haha ... promoting myself. hehe ... you see, if you just sit there checking on the charts, there is NO WAY you could understand. So, I am sort of invite him to join my trading class(seeing that he is at Subang Jaya ... nearer ma).

NTPM : He was looking at NTPM ... hmm ... and I gathered that it gives good dividend. Ok, place it back into my list ... and ouch, I missed the DIVING at 30th Sept. That is extreme selling ... and no one alert me?

Olympia : Up today ... how to trade this fella? PUNT la ...

TEH

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