Friday, October 07, 2011

Confusions and Contradictions

DOW up ... we will be thinking of bull-rally again ... we have short-memory. Two weeks ago, we might say ... it is doomed. Get out of markets as it may dive to 1200 level soon. Today or next week(if still up 50 points la), we might think we are in reversal and in for a bull-run. THINK. Such a short period of time, we change our views, outlooks and sentiments? That is the difficult part of 'forecasting' and our analysts trying to give us the direction(s) we needed.

BoE having QE2? No one-the FTSE shooting up and DOW rallying. Is the rally sustainable? We shall see ... I thought Sept-Oct are bad months for markets? Perhaps, this time it is different!!! Heard of such wordings?

Many things playing in my mind ... not stocks, but my teaching of trading. Am I confusing my tratles further with my contradicting words?

Confusing and contradicting facts

For example : I asked them to equip themselves by buying good books to READ. Or at least google to read from internet or learn from youtube. Then, many of times, i will tell some of them that ... err ... actually, reading itself will NOT make a person a better trader/investor!! Confusing? Yup ... if reading tonnes of books will make u a good trader or investor, the LIBRARIANs will be the best, right? Not my word, taken from W.Buffett. It doesnt work that way ... while reading is good to learn the TERMS, to learn some strategies ... more importantly, HOW we apply WHAT and WHEN. That is the practical past of trading which COULD NOT be attained from merely readings, ok? Accpet it and move-on ... need not to argue with the books or blogs or whatever you read. They are not wrong, they just couldnt tell you exactly what is right for your ONE stock. Then, u are confused ... why the book says like that, actually another books(authors) put it in such a contrast mammer? Then ... you get upset with the books, you lost your trades(and money) and you might curse the authors. The more you read, I assure you ... you will get more confused!! Learn to be OPEN MINDED, accept what works FOR YOU(may not be for others) and filter what may not work for you(BUT work well to others). Markets are dynamic ... dont be stagnant. Move-on ....

For example : Indicators could be confusing too ... one moment one person said must use at least the 5 basic indicators to use, the next moment I might say 2 or 3 indicators will suffice. Hmm ... same indicators, different views. Same stocks ... analysed differently!! Wow ... this is confusing!! I am still sharing a joke with my tratles ... there is one uncle from Chart-Nexus who paid all the money, attended many of the meetings and telling us 'novices'(during teh-tarik session) that there is only ONE INDICATOR needed which he just discovered "Ichimoku Cloud". Heard of it? We are all like .. woo .... ooow ... this is cool. Yeah .. confusing usnovices) further!! SOmeone also commented(in good intention, thanks) that I should consider BB in my modules. Hmm ... I will once they could grasp SIMPLE concepts of technical-analysis. SERIOUS. I am teaching them that MA could be use for seeing trends and also use as support&resistance. That is how basic my modules are!! It is meant for novices tho I do have some veterans in my trading classes!!

For example : There is also a joke that no two economists will agree with ONE given situation!! Yup .. contradicting and confusing ... should you buy gold for longer term? Should you buy a gold mining stocks? What do you think of USD? Bear in mind, these are subjective and also from different perceptives. If you will listen to more from media(bloomberg and such), you will ALWAYS listening to contrasting views!! Then, if you rigidly taking their views, you will get confused and fed-up ... heck, are they trying to SELL their stocks or the show?? How do one economist interpret an economic indicator could be very different from another economist, ok? Accept it as it is ... and move-on, please. No need to find the ULTIMATE truth. There is none.

For example : If you think economists have varying views, try analysts. We could have a BUY, HOLD or SELL calls for one same stock at the same time!! How is that? Confusing enough? No? Look ... many good investment books or gurus will ask us to do our own research!! What?? Teach me how ... checking on ratios? How REAL could all those data be? LOW PER is good ... but it is not a buy? Good cash-flow giving us positive confidence but not a buy either? Hmm ... do you check their dividends as these could be good stocks, giving dividends(can get stuck and claim we are long term investors ma) ... so, a buy-n-hold? Hmm ... how about NTA, NAV, P/B, ROI, ROA, ROE, or perhaps GLC(gov-link counter la, not ratio, k? haha). Very confusing ... and obviously contradicting! : HSI up 500+ points  and KLCI back to 1400 level now.

KimLun and Muhibah : Hmm ... in red, hanging at my cost price. Wasting bullets on them ... so how now? Market so bullish ... thanks to TENAGA and YTLPower... power-play today?

HKSE : So many stocks in my list already flying about 10-30% in two days!! Buy buy buy .... hehe

Pointers shared with my tratles(FB)

When we think of PROFITS, we could easily forgotten about the risk. Like in chess, before we play offensive, we protect our king(by castling) first. The game is lost if you lose your king, no matter even if you almost checkmate your opponents king. THINK about it.

Cohort-3(tmr 2pm) : I have 7 confirmation so far. Those who have not, please do so as tmr is a first class. I will have to do first-come-first-serve as the room could not cater more than 10 people. Those who are still interested, you may want to e-mail me but priority will be those e-mail me much earlier. By tonight, if they did not reply, I will have to give the 'space' to another who is interested. Thanks.

3.30 pm : It is going to rain here ... it is RED in KLCI now. How is that? Najib not going to give us anything sweet, is it? hmm ...

A good example to discuss GREED in the morning, FEAR after lunch? hmm ....


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