Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Glove-stocks in play

DOW down another 250 points. Gold up.

Preparing for the slide .... zrroom ...

Many things playing in mind.

1. Shifting end of the month --- bought paints, ladder and items needed to paint and will start to paint today!! Yes, in daily basis, I will paint the walls by myself. Anyone want to help? I could treat you a burger(mamak) and teh tarik. We can talk about stock-market while painting. Haha.

2. Exams --- next week, and for a month my students will be taking their exams. So, I will be busy 'entertaining' their questions, extra classes and such. My students are still my priority.

3. Trading classes --- with my cohort-3 starting this Sat and my two existing classes to handle, I m fully tied. Couldnt join for lengthy mamak-session anymore due to tiredness and time constraints. Also, thinking about the turtles-meeting which to help them to learn hands-on analysing of charts using whatever they are learning now. I believe in being practical ... 5 modules of theories is needed to make sure we are speaking of similar language.

4. Future plannings --- having future progress going on with my 3-pioneering turtles. Meeting this Thu(weekly) to set things up and we are at initial stage of discussions.

KLCI down 7 points.

TopGlove : Glad to have you back. Why are you lagging behind Supermax and Latexx?

Glove-stocks in RHB's forum

As highlighted during my session of Bursa Malaysia-RHBInvest MarketChat @Johor Bahru last Saturday, latex prices are falling off with the weakening of the global economy affecting the demand for automobiles (and hence demand for natural rubber for tyres). In addition, the current volatility and uncertainty in global stock markets have prompted investors to repatriate their funds from emerging markets into safe-haven currencies, leading to the US$ appreciating in strength against the ringgit.
Besides, demand for gloves are typically not affected during a downturn (as consumption remains a small portion of the healthcare budget). As a result, you would see company’s which are more skewed towards natural rubber gloves gaining. Hence, my highlighted stock picks last weekend comprised the major natural rubber glove players, Latexx and Supermax, excluding Top Glove given pricier valuations.

Lester Chin (Analyst, RHB Research Institute)

TEH : The above is taken from today's RHB forum. Of so many forums, RHBInvest is the best as it is controlled. We dont see people throwing rubbish on each other. Congrats to Eric and gang for such good job. Now, today itself, MANY started to posted about questions relating to glove-stocks. How to see the top? When many of these people rushing in ... time to sell again when these un-informed people crowding the counters. Look at Supermax today ... shooting the star, then only they ask ... can buy ar? How to help? At least some decent replies to explain that it is due to low-latex price and high USD. When people are bullish, they will be OVER-due bullishness. It is time to look at Supermax at RM5 now, I think. Hmm ... logical? And these events occured to them SO MANY times, yet ... they will still running around asking ... Careplus can buy ar?

How not to lose too much of money?

There are few very important criteria I shared with my turtles in our facebook-page. Those 'turtles' of mine who have not register, add me in your facebook ya.

Yes, we need to place strict cretiria in such ding-dong market. If we go with the dig-dong, most probably we could not sleep well? So, how not to lose money becoming more important than how to profit in such volatile markets, especially if you are NEW to markets.

One of the criteria I placed is 'buy only good fundamental stocks'. You see, it is logical to many but due to get-rich-quick mentality(even they know market is tanking), this criteria could easily be put aside. Dont be influence by many in forums or if others call you 'sissy'. Heck, we are talking about YOUR MONEY, who cares what others will say, right? Unless it is a pointer to share, we should IGNORE noises.

Buying Dialog below RM2.20 now will not lose you money. So, I collected more below RM2.20 yesterday as it went down. Today I grabbed TopGlove below RM4 and it will not lose me money. Not much, I mean ... if the trade go against me, I still cut-short losses. Buying PChem even at RM5.50 will not lose me money(yet).

Buying MHB below RM5.20 or Tenaga below RM5 will not lose me much money. While MHB valuation is still high(PER16+), Tenaga is trading at a single digit.

While Supermax flying off these few days, I was thinking of TopGlove last night because it was PRESSED down yesterday. Check the chart. So, it is a buy of TopGlove for me. I dont wish to chase Supermax. Of coz, Latexx and IRCB is play now. While Latexx is still a good F-stock, nothing could be said about IRCB. Many punters rushing for IRCB, of coz. TopGlove will be too slow and lagging for them!!

Buying Sime below RM8 or GenM below RM3.20 will not lose you money much. Buying Axiata below RM4.50 wont lose you money too.

All the above might be temporary ... well, when market dives down, second-leg down ... all the above will lose you some money then ... just dont know about the magnitude. IRCB? Hmm ... better run fast if still got profits, right?

BJToto ... hmm ... buying at RM4.10 level wont lose you money, in fact they are going to pay you dividends again and again and the counter trading in a range-bound. SImilar to Maxis as they are dividends-stocks. Mind you, there are SO MANY of them dont even know which stocks giving dividends, which is not. If you say MayBank and PBBank ... you get stucked but holding for dividends, fine. But same could not be said for CIMB, right? CIMB is a high risk bank for me due to Najib's effect. Good for trading, not good to buy-n-hold.

That is why trading or investing in stock-markets is VERY challenging due to the changes in environments(sentiments, fear-greed or human factors, political) ... due to factors affecting global markets outlook .. and I could write pages regarding factors to consider(which I am compiling) that MIGHT affect OUR one counter(say, Tenaga). Low PER is not a buy ... low RSI is also not a buy. Then, when to buy?? High PER is not a sell, high RSI is also not a sell? Then, when can we sell?

12.10 pm : MudaJaya is moving again. I sms-ed my turtle this morning LK that if you are into riskier trade, consider my MudaJaya which I enter at 1.92 average days ago. Muhibah mentioned too.

MudaJaya : Wow ... that is fast and furious. Sold half at 2.10 done!! It was at 1.90 this morning, ok? Hmm .. grabbing back?

MHB : Not moving as I was collecting her below RM5.20 yesterday. Hmm ... any buyers? I want to sell.

1.35 pm : Checking on markets around as I was so busy this morning. HSI down 270 points to close for lunch. KLCI in red but glove-stocks in play. Yes, as traders ... trend is our friend. Ride on it ...

While I m heavily in stocks now due to my buyings and top-up, I m still buying today, into TopGlove now. So, I have to release some ... and it will be MudaJaya today. Need to check if I have to release PChem or MHB for small-loss as they are still hanging at my cost price. Both are oil-related ... so, having Dialog in hand, I will want to release the other two(with another two non-oil in my mind). Hence, these are in mind ...

Yes, I tend to get greedier when markets went down 30 points, HSI 770 points. Today, KLCI was down too ... so, I m only focusing in TopGlove. Supermax flying much agressively but if you are busy to monitor, it is 'difficult' ... so, you go for laggards and less riskier ones. That is my policy, nothing to do with being 'sissy'.

Not LOSING MONEY is still my priority as I shared with my 'turtles' such criteria. I have criteria and plans to follow. I wont jump into IRCB no matter what you could say .... because that defeat my purposes of being a improved and better trader(one day) ... I am still learning. And always still feel humbled by markets. I have high respect for markets as it could easily change the mood and crush us. From profit-position, we might even lose in the trades. Even you have grabbed at a 'good' entry level, it is the SELLING that make the difference ... profits or losses. Paper-profit is not a profit to me BUT paper-loss is a LOSS. That is another thing I shared with my turtles!! Yes, slowly I will tell them how DIFFICULT trading or investing is. Those get-rich-system or scheme or trading ... err ... yuse your logic to think?

S.Dali wrote it well to say that ... if there is such a system, fund-managers will be paying MILLIONS for the sure-profit systems. THINK, my readers. THINK.

Example : Someone analysed TAKASO(what is that? A Japanese counter?) using technical-analysis and then came out and saying how many percent he could profitted using his system on Takaso?!! Heard of such? Just an example la ...

In my opinion, MANY things are easier said than done. While it takes NOVICES to understand some terms and many more veterans to LOSE MORE money to understand that ... stock-markets are NOT for them. Imagine someone bought little of BJFood, OldTown and Sunway at high level. He is so young(around 20 only) and DO NOT KNOW what to do with the three stocks. Selling all will lose him RM400(I believe, in percentage wise, it is large?) but he got market TOTALLY wrong ... no fundamental, no technical ... not even news or emotional analysis. NOTHING. Just buy ... just simply kasi-hemtam ... then HOPE.

You see, he is 20 ... so I could excuse him for being naive. He has TIME on his side IF he wanted to SERIOUSly learn. But as he is building those BAD habits ... do you think he will learn??

Ask many around .. those veterans with 10 years and above in markets!! Slowly I do have confessions from my veterans-turtles. Yes, it is difficult to change the habits. It is like smoking ... if we are going to change our smoking habits, we DO NOT mix with our same smoking kaki, right? While mixing more with NON-smokers, and ask them to STOP you from smoking ... you find it difficult initially but ... you will quit the habit much easier with your new non-smokers group!!

This is my grouping purposes. To share resources and encourage each other. Reminding those veterans NOT to do what they havve been doing for past YEARS. If whatever you have been doing in years bring you good profits, GOOD. Learn to improve(not buying 30 penny stocks, hold for 13 years for recovery!! That is total ABSURD way and you will be lucky we dont have 10 years recession!!)

Hence, I am trying to help ... I am just an individual. NO ONE could help a person if he/she doesnt see that he/she needs to change. MONEY is yours ... trades is yours in market. You decide.

CNOOC :  Reached a new low at HKD11.22 today. Watching.

3.10 pm : Classes since morning .. craziness while rushing around, I key-ed buy/sell. My brain over-work. Haha. HSI down 570 and KLCI dropping 5 points.

Gold : Reaching 1680 soon ... reversal too?

Quote : Be patient with your winners, have no patience for your losers

Selling-day : Today is a selling day for my stocks. Good. Keep cash as DOW might go in red again. Shopping again next round.

MHB : At 5.08 now ... what a close-call as I was LUCKY to sell her at RM5.20 this morning, and to collect more of TopGlove. Yup, the quote of the day holds.

Supermax : At RM3.20 now, was CHASED up to RM3.40 now.

MudaJaya :  Sold all too ... half at 2.10 done this morning and another at 2.05

Dialog : Sold all at 2.30 ... take profits as holding too much of her as I was collecting below RM2.20.

TopGlove : Cleared too at RM4.27. Thanks for tonight's dinner. Not always I get so lucky in a day!!

Left with PChem ... so, clearing for small-loss too? At RM5.44 now ... why selling for profits? Hmm ... markets in RED and most of my counters shooting high ... sell first, ask later. Haha.

Well, I am eyeing HKSE-la, actually. HSI closed 571 points down. Ouch.

MHB : Touched RM5 ... I like her!!

6pm : Tired after 6 hours of classes today.

Talk of the day : In the office, we were talking about a new graduate came for an interview. She graduated from local private uni with second class upper in Mechanical Engineering!! Yes, we do have many engineer-grad applying to teach Maths or Physic. IT DOESNT WORK THAT WAY. Anyway, my colleague who is experienced Physic lecturer went for the mock-lecture. Fair ... they only asked her MOST BASIC form-4 physic questions ... such as Newton Second Law with two connected bodies. And her answer was a TOTAL SHOCK. Then ... with another question on the direction of a normal reaction ... gosh ... I guess their jaw dropped!! WHAT?? Second-class upper engineering grad DOESNT even know form-4 Physics??

You see, our stupid and un-educated society REALLY believe that if you are an engineer-grad, you are well above those in Maths grad. And those Math-grad SHOULD be able to teach form-six Maths!! That is how shallow and naive our society is. Too bad, I m not going to debate about it. Look at the degree-holders nowadays!! Look at those getting MASTERS ... these are VERY cheap certs society is collecting and it has been going on for 20+ years now. It is diluting in contents(due to lack of quality and qualified tutors) ... diluting in values(like USD. Haha) ... and it is MASS reproduction!! Oooppsss ... I mean, mass production. Haha.

Let us talk about BRAIN ... the academic abilities in many of our young grads. Excuse me ... local private uni grads? If they are econ-grads, can I have a decent conversation with them? I want to learn from them , possible? They might get the fear speaking about the subject(s) which they learnt from the Uni for 3-4 years!! WOW ... what do they learn, then? Perhaps their essay writing is about Bernanke's beard? Sigh .. I am being cynical again!! I cant help it ... I am surrounded by so many young grads every year, and each year .... we have seen deterioting in QUALITIES. No substance inside that paper-qualification!! Congrats, you are a grad now. Welcome to the REAL world. Err ... encik, boleh tanya sekijap ... apa maksud 'sex'? Hmm ... the form means GENDER ... lelaki ke, perempuan ke ... atau kedua-duanya la. Haha. Nope, they are not asking you if you are a virgin. Dont worry.

Language ... the command of English these days in young grads is TERRIBLE. I remember I was told to attend a mock-lecture by a young grad(Maths from local Uni) ... she cant even speak ENGLISH!! Now, you cant teach the whole subject in ENGLISH medium if you cant even speak a SENTENCE properly, right? Many of our students are from well-to-do and educated family, you know. Then, how? Explain in Malay simply because during your uni-years all in Malay? How about asking Cambridge to have two versions of exam papers?? That is our STPM now la. Pathetic!!

9.45 pm : Due to my profits, I dont have to paint the walls. Haha ... err ,.. I was just kidding but someone offered to help me with the painting!! THANKS. And thanks MS too ... you know u are helpful. Not painting of the walls la. We have more things to be done.

DOW opens 150 points lower. BEARISH.

10.10 pm : DOW at 10, 500 level now. Breaking 10k level will be a disaster.


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