Wednesday, June 26, 2019
E&O : RM2 peak there ... today below 80cents. RM2 divide 4 = 50cents. buy. Every 10cents down, add ... till 10cents? Will E&O go bust?
We shall see if the strategy works ... for E&O ...
Note : If we are buying at current 80cents, then staggers it every 20cents lower.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Q : Hi Teh ... I like your idea of dollar averaging in TM. Could it be applied to other stocks?
Yes ... and No.
The risk is ... the stocks may NOT recover. And some lousy stocks may even be delisted (or cash-calls etc) during crisis.
Let me take CSCSteel as example ... someone argued with me it is under-valued when it was up strong around RM1.80 ... so, fine. Buy more now ... right? silly naive fella.
CSC today at RM1.07 (PER 25.56 with NTA 2.19) ... not under-valued leh.
take peak : RM2 divide 4 = 50cents. Start to buy from there. every ten cents down, buy one portion consistently ...
sell every 10cents up. one may adjust to % etc etc.
There ... that is my take. Buying a downtrending stocks ... expect to be stuck with paperloss and need to buy more (be happy) when stocks becoming cheaper ... if u stuck up there CSCSteel at RM2 or RM1.50 ... i wonder why you are not adding at RM1? Ask ourselves why we bought high up there ... and STUCK. Investor or ... ACCIDENTALLY becoming investor ...
Morning ... awaiting G20 ... Trump + Xi = bull market but Turmp - Xi = bear market.
Interesting kinda speculations on-going ... markets no longer talk about fundamentals as it has deviated hugely from the reality but we are NOT in bubble stage yet ... DOW 30k, possible? If one needs to feel BULLISH ... go to US, selected stocks only, ya.
Over here ... we have stories on our own. 1MDB cases ... new MACC head ... new TM head ... new XYZ heads ...
The current great rebound in TM caught everyone off guard ... I SHOULD HAVE SAILANG TM ... at ABC level ... they exclaimed. Nah ... you wont. Markets work in such a weird manner ... one moment it dives ... it crashes the the whole sectors or stocks due to news ... and only to recover sharply weeks or months later ... some take years ... many more NEVER.
Strategy : Every RM1 down ... add and buy. Every RM1 up, sell a portion
Say we have RM 60k capital for TM.
RM6 ... buy RM10k = 1660 units
RM5 ...buy RM10k = 2000 units
RM4 ... buy RM10k = 2500 units
RM3 ... buy RM10k = 3340 units
RM2 ... slow slow wait (man-man-tan) ... almost hit.
RM1 ... crash time can get la.
Our average is not the mid-point as we can buy more units at lower price. Assuming we refuse to use brain but we are smart enough to know TM crashing down due to PH-gov taken over, our new minister want to cut-this-that ... putting those aside ... just need to know end of month, we have to pay our unifi-TM bills!!
So far ... we have managed to accumulate 9500 units using RM40k (2/3 of our capital) and our average is around RM4.30 (given some to fees).
Profit taking : Sold RM3 portion at RM4 : realised profit around RM3300.
So, now what is our average after realised some profits, while sitting on paperloss ... one fine day, TM would go to RM7 ... we would have exited all (man-man-tan la ... RM7? haha)
note : TM with PER 50 ... in case you think it is CHEAP and could go to RM7 ... in reality, it wont
Our average now is RM4.90 ... and we would be only SELLING next portion at RM5 and buying back 3340 units of TM at RM3 (again).
Do you think we could manage to sell TM at RM5? We dont know and wont care if market is going to be bull or bear. We WONT know, anyway.
Apply these to some other bull chip ... i mean, blue chips. Then ... we dont have to time the market and could be happier once the stocks dive sharply.
Be glad to buy more at lower, ok? If you bought TM at RM6 and not happy when it went to RM5, you are not an investor ... and at RM3, you panic? Heck ... it went to RM2.50 below ... you wont like it to buy more? Ok ...you are not an investor.
I wish I m smart enough to HOLD my TM which I bought around RM2.50 ... and buy big big. I m not smart .... enough.
Sunday, June 23, 2019
Amway (PE 17.3 and NTA 1.26) : Trading at RM6, down about 30% plus ... seeing it to drop further ... not bottom yet.
APM (PE 17.6 and NTA 6.35) : Trading at RM2.80, not as bad ... only dropping about 30% ... so, we shall wait for it to go to RM2 level to update again.
BStead (PE -4.15 and NTA 2.65) : dropped about 65% from recent peak ... penny stock soon?
Kwantas (PE -1.88 and NTA 3.78) trading at 73cents, new low. Plantation sector crashing ... except the few giants which being supported.
LCTitan (PE 11.58 with NTA 5.23) : Trading around RM3 ... crashed about 50% ... and sideway now. This one can buy as it is kinda newly listed ... shall I say, re-listed.
MSM (PER 80 and NTA 2.78) : dropped about 70% now, and at new low since listed.
PIE (PE 13.6 with NTA 1.12) : Trading at RM1.30 ... worth to check for trading purposes. dropped 50% from the peak ...
ANYONE stuck up there in these few stocks listed above? No worry, if I have the time (and mood), I could show many more waterfalls ... till those HOLDING (u hold paperloss for what ar?) will think of cutloss and selling ... perhaps, QUIT the market.
Time to rest.
Sunday morning ...during weekends, traders would read and check what are the news for the week and stocks in plaza.
Example : toll news pushing Gamuda and IJM.
Gamuda performed much better last week, moving too fast for me to catch ...so, I went for IJM breakout instead. There is no follow thru in IJM.
Initially when I saw construction moving, I thought it was linked to cement news.
By the way, in case someone saying Lafarge is uptrending again ...I better show the whole chart.
Anyway ...construction stocks is in play now ...spilled over to some steel stocks too, with the revival of some projects, these stocks would be in play for awhile.
Anyone bought Gamuda below RM2.50 and hold till now? Crash is a buy-hold ...next would be, when to sell her? RM4?
Note : buy during crashes is that difficult ...and we need to hold till recovery, if any.
Oil and gas is another sector media trying to push(to distribute) ...while Dayang is most popularly written ...Hibiscus or Carimin are following too. I choose to trade Hibiscus as it doesn’t swing as crazy as the other two.
Crude oil recently crashing down ... but recently rebounded due to Iran news. As speculators/traders, we have to follow the news to know short term movements of stocks ...short term as it is not sustainable. Once the news forgotten ...no longer hot ...the stocks or even sector would be abandoned.
Example : no more Jack Ma stories ...hence Efficen or Gdex tumbling down ...crashed and no one talk about them anymore. Hmm ...wonder why so many stuck inside efficen, gdex, tnlogis, century ...etc etc ...including POS (recently hit Rm1.20 now RM1.50) ...still holding on them? Perhaps they never learn to sell or cutloss.
Already ...so, read some news ...see what is hot for the week ...and trade those stocks. News ...fundamental check ...check charts ...plan and trade. Sound simple but it is not.
Will write again later ...using ipad to blog is not easy as I don’t know how to adjust the alignment etc etc.
Saturday, June 22, 2019
S&P 500: going to breakout into the sky ... long Trump ...long live Trump. Making US great again ...
Ok ...that didn’t translate to the new high in our KLCI (trading at PER 21 high level) or most of KLSE stocks. Currently we do see some rebound ...from 1600 level to 1670 plus ...reaching to 1700 ...perhaps 1800 ....no, wait a minute, new high 2000. Yeah ...once banking stocks recover, we would be there, ok?
How bout broader markets? Will we be seeing a new bull market from here on? Say ...Dayang breakout RM4 ...after all, it came diving from there, ok? Wait a minute, most of KLSE stocks showing such a crash-pattern, yet most out there stuck up there ...not admitting. Tell me base on the chart ...is it uptrend or downtrend?
Definition of uptrend : higher high and high low, breaking into new high. Example : Yinson
There are many things I would want to share ...but I would reserve my energy and thoughts to myself. Let all be in denial stuck up there in FGV or Astro?
I m in cash position again, sold of IJM, Dayang, Hibiscus ...hmm ...Karex(wasted) ioipg, simeprop ...what else if I could recall? By next week, I can’t remember much of my trades, actually.
It is a sell ...so, next week relax week ...again. Do nothing is the best strategy, while wait for pullback in Yinson, BAuto and such.
Hope all well ...tho I know most in forums and out there stuck up there in stocks, being in denial mode. No one could help ...if you are not helping yourself.
Friday, June 21, 2019
IJM breakout yesterday ... so, I took.
Today is a sell day ... so, I sold again (too early?!!)
once it breakout RM2.35 ... i took. Today, is my sell day.
to join my trades : contact 012 821 0129 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Note : I m a trader ... short term trading these day due to high risk market. I will wait for markets to tumble again to check them ... thanks for all the good trades for past few weeks.
Hibiscus : As oil up (rebounds actually), yesterday saw some crazy movements in Dayang n Carimin. Yinson hit new high too.
So, I took Dayang yesterday and sold off ... to buy Hibicus at RM1.07 ... and sold this morning RM1.10-RM1.11 done. Check the chart ... SELL is a must. We could only SELL if we have the stocks ... or bought earlier ... lower or higher ...
For oil-n-gas, I would only focus these few ... as they are 'in play'. Nothing to do much about fundamentals la ... just trade using charts, no emotion needed. This week good trades from these, ya.
Today is a SELL day. See S&P new high ... sell. See KLCI overbought, SELL.
See forums becoming noisy again. SELL.
This is how crashed looks like ... from RM4.40 to 40cents ...now around 60cents. This is also how bottoming chart looks like ... but when I checked the PER ... wow PER 164. No thanks.
Huge drop in EPS ... and making losses for past two quarters. Wonder how they are going to make a good turn?
Read the QR or AR ... go to their website. Keep them in the list, in case during crisis ... they might be trading below 10cents?
Thursday, June 20, 2019
KLCI has been so bullish for a whole month ... so, it is easier to trade for past few
I traded Dayang today ... and bought back Hibiscus as it breakout.
Many stocks showing bullish signals ... and yes, easier to trade during bullish mode ... and wait again as stocks to pullback and perhaps, correct sharply again?
Karex : missed the trade
Tenaga : sold too early ... and it continues to shoot the sky? What's up? We entered RM11.80 ... today is RM13.80 ...how I wish I m smart enough to buy-hold. haha
Time to check DOW flying off ... thanks to FED.