Wednesday, February 20, 2019
4pm : Today KLCI reaching back to 1724 level, and it is a SELL day.
show them this quote ...
nothing to write ... haha. busy with classes and trading as market up further. SELL ... touch-n-go ... exit.
note : those stuck ... good market sentiment, rebound = sell.
good luck as I m OUT.
Thursday, February 07, 2019
Gamuda : If we are caught at RM5, should we be averaging down at RM4? Then .... wait for RM3 to buy more? How about RM2 ... we certainly need huge funds prepared for averaging it. Once RM2 done, are we going to all in at RM1?
This is Gamuda, one of the largest construction company in our country, Malaysia and listed in KLSE. It used to be index-linked, for your info.
Averaging down is not easy ... as we are prepared to be stuck for some time ... and expecting it to have reverse and uptrending again.
But ... we never know the BOTTOM. So, instead of timing the bottom, we buy in stages?
We were taught in very wrong ways/methods of averaging down, actually. We do not simply average it down. It the stock traded at RM5 previously, it doesn't mean RM3 is cheaper? Perhaps, you have bought at RM5 at very high-level? It is VALUATIONS thru biz-analysis and fundamental-analysis ... not base on the price traded in bourse, ok?
Averaging down in 2018 is kinda ridiculous decision to make ... and adding more in 2019 could be suicidal. But again ... no one knows, right?
Good luck to those averaging down. If we know what we are doing, no need to care about what others saying. Stick to our plans?
Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Do you know market ALREADY crashed ... and you might be one of those STUCK up there in some stocks, perhaps most part of your funds STUCK up there ... and you are still in denial mode?
Let me re-shared ... KLCI is comprises of only 30 stocks which could be easily supported. So, we are standing around 1700 level at the moment, down from 1800 plus before GE14.
Exactly ... a year ago, Feb 2018 ... we were at 1820 level , this week we are at 1683.
So, KLCI shown that after a year ... we are 'just' 137 points lower, right? So, technically speaking ... KLCI not crash yet ... and still sideway, awaiting to break higher than 1900 OR below 1500. Sideway ... no bear or bull. Just stay supported (artificially). Along the way, we seen TM taken out and inclusion of the over-valued Harta/TopGlove.
2018 was the year many crashed ... especially after GE14.
Markets dislike un-certainties ... so, punished many counters, which are fully-valued or over-priced anyway. One of the sector which battered the most was CONSTRUCTIONS.
With new PH-gov trying to prove their points, many projects cancelled, down-sized or deferred.
Construction-index down some 40% from exactly a year ago ... what is that call if not CRASHED?
Note : Crashes can lead to a bear market. That's when the market falls 10 percent beyond a correction for a total decline of 20 percent or more. It typically lasts 18 months. Bear markets occur with a recession.
The note is copied from : https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-examples-cause-impact-3305864
It was about 56% from the peak to recent bottom. Are construction counters CHEAP after such a crash?
Answer : NOPE
Answer : because many projects cancelled/downsided/postponed ... so, hitting hard in their EXPECTED earning ... bear in mind, stock-market factoring in the so-called good projected earnings ...
SO .... get ourselves clear here. KLCI will not crash yet till DOW to crash. But, we have more than 10 sectors which crashing .... or crashed.
Ask those MAJORITY whom stuck up there, of coz they wont tell you the truth they are stuck up there, right?
Are you sure we have not crashed? More to come, by the way.
happy CNY ...day 2
Tuesday, February 05, 2019
Happy CNY day 1 ... done nothing much except visited mom and sis/bro.
Not so well ... and napped. No one visited me, so far.
There is an up-coming talk : Investment Blogger Day. Interesting ... by i3-forum. So, I will try to make myself available and attend. If I m free (no tuition classes, I m sure to attend many seminars/talks) ... I m not invited (as speakers?) as I m not active in i3, and not even in blogging. Also ... this is not an INVESTMENT blog, in case some out there really thought I m obliged to write about 'stock markets'.
This blog is just another cyber space for me to ... unblock. Blog to unblock, heard of that phrase? Never mind ... most wont understand what a blog is, anyway.
We are taking a break here ... but DOW up 175 points last night and expecting to move higher tonight. Mixed news ... but I guess market in US welcoming FED-chairman 'hints". It is very difficult to follow news ... and one moment we talking about trade wars, next would be looking at FED.
Locally, we do not have GE14 to distract the market ... BUT as I have mentioned for whole 2018, we ALREADY crash ... that is what I was preparing for in 2016 : CRASH. But ... we have not seen the crash in index --- KLCI. We are indeed still strongly holding at 1700 level, pending breakout of 1725 and heading to 1800 ... perhaps ... 1900 ... new high to 2000?
ok ... ok .. it is CNY ... we are allowed to DREAM ... and do get drunk. haha. cheers.
Where are we in the cycle now?
As stock-markets in high-valuation level with NO CHEAP or UNDERVALUED stocks hangin around to pick (invest = buy-hold), we would want to check on those crashed ... example : TM, GenM, Astro ... FGV? Or Karex? haha. Even after those stocks down so much, it is still NOT cheap.
We are at the BLUE region ... "rising interest rate" after the 'rising of property prices. As the interest rate would continue to rise in coming near future, we would see selldown in stocks/equities. Slump in earnings ... cooperates failing and sectors crashing. Nope, we are not there YET ... we at increase in the interest rate level ... and might stay at this level awhile as market digesting 'inflation'.
We do see falling of share prices, actually. So ... for many sectors (such as O&G, Property stocks, Logistic etc etc) ... it is crashing. Falling of commodities also happening. Crude Oil price down from recent high of USD70 plus to USD50 plus now. Crude Palm Oil down from RM2800 to RM2000 level. So, are we in that stage now?
SLOWING down ... and moving to GLOOM.
So ... majority already STUCK in few hundreds stocks ... I have listed so many, if you remain in DENIAL mode, it is up to you to remain STUCK.
You mean, GenM moving up to RM5 or FGV to RM2 again? How about MyEg back to RM3?
Layhong to RM1? etc etc ... no, we should not allow ourselves to day-dream. But take the NEW YEAR to make new resolutions such as : I PROMISED MYSELF TO LEARN ... on how market works and NOT TO GET STUCK in stocks anymore.
Wish all happy CNY ... and huat ar? really?
Sunday, February 03, 2019
This is a monthly chart of Parkson, showing from RM to below 30cents ... no, it is not from RM1 peak ... so, I shown the historical chart in my facebook ... it was from RM20 level at peak before 1998 crash ...
Today, I read that they are closing the Suria KLCC outlet and I m not sure if this stock would be de-listed anytime soon as I do not read much.
Aeon : This is Jusco ... would it face the similar fate? Brick-n-Mortar ... I have written about them some time as many large retailing shops/names in US are collapsing too ...
So ... as we could see, Parkson is biting the dust ... and has always been related to TTB as he was an 'investor' in her. We have to admit wrong ... and move on. I used to like Parkson or Aeon too some years ago, before the emerges of e-commerce.
Sears : https://www.businessinsider.my/sears-bankruptcy-reports-downfall-photos-2018-10/?r=US&IR=T
Heard of JCPenney ? Here is the chart.
Anyway, avoid the sunsetting biz is the best ... and investors DO NOT buy into losing money and downtrending stocks, ok?
Feel sorry for those still stubbornly holding to Parkson ... and perhaps, Aeon?