Morning ... by now, over the weekend ... many would have read about the these undervalued stocks and excited to buy into them ...
Valuation metric : P/B less than 1, no loss-making companies and ROE > 10%
#1 Opensys : with P/B 0.16, it is deemed to be the most under-valued ... so, attracted many buyers last week. So, if you believe in Opensys as under-valued ... time to accumulate and hold for say, 100% .... up above 60cents? Collect?
#2 Seal : with P/B 0.28, it is position as no 2 undervalued. Well ... a strong downtrend, and just buy in if one believes in media (will attract many punters and operators too).
#3 SDred : this is not liquid ... property sector and downtrending. I never trade her as it is not liquid. P/B given here is 0.31 to stand at no 3.
Conclusion : From the above, I will put Opensys in my list. I have avoided properties stocks since ... years ago?
Eatech : placed #1 by ROE-valuation ... time to buy? I have avoided shipping/O&G for ... years? So ... yup, I wont take either. Continue to avoid the sector ...
Buying or investing in 2019 is of HIGHEST risk ... so, as investors, we prefer a LOW RISK market environments. If you cant understand ... or not patient enough to wait for that moment, you are NOT an investor ... you are at best, an uninformed trader.
3M : hit high USD252 level in Jan2018 surge ... a year later, we are in downtrending.
American Express : Peaked at USD113, hit USD89 during recent selldown, rebounding for past weeks. Will check again by April, next quarter.
Apple : One of the most talked about stock in town ... as we do use iPhone and iPads. it is a strong down trending now ... no more 1T-talk here. If you cant understand 1T, u may not be following AAPL news and such. It is ok ...just tell you it is DOWN trending now. PEAKED USD230, now around USD150, will see if it would break USD140 and update.
After done so well in 2019 ... today, I managed to lose!! ouch.
cutloss all to be in full cash position as KLCI hitting 1700 level.
sold : Mitra, Frontkn and Supermax, all in small losses. Others all sold last Friday. Harta went higher. haha
If one could understand WHY markets so volatile ... and also WHY so many spikes ... then, u will know WHY retailers stuck up there BIG time ... way before market crashing.
Simple as that ... no one want to ADMIT market is crashing and most sectors are not doing well , fundamentally and charts showing strong downtrending. So ... the recent spikes in VS for example would be a good time to SELL/EXIT ... buy some stupid-naïve-greedy retailers jumped in at high 90cents or above , stuck ... today it closed below 80cents.
no ... I didn't take VS ... as it is too volatile for an old-man like me. haha
So ... I m focusing in SELLING and asked my group to reduce position or no taking anything this week as pullback expected.
we cant win all the time ... so, the rare losing day for me. And I m taking a pause for at least 3 days.
Be fearful when everyone is greedy? haha ... I shorted the FKLI. haha.
Bought : Hibiscus (as KYY bought) , MRCB (still in play, 3rd trade since 59cents) and AirAsia(thought breakout RM3 to sell today)
Sold : AirAsia (LOSSES ... some bad news, I sold off at 2.93 , gap down), Hibiscus, MRCB and UEMS for good profits.
As I was busy buying last week ... I have sold many. By today, I would be 'very light'. Selling YTL too for good profit, entered hugely at average RM1.01. Bye-bye green-market ... see you again when you are in red-red.
While I have profited in almost all my 2019 trades, somehow I lost THIS ONE. AirAsia.
How I do not sell her off at closing price RM3? This is becoming my main discussion in my closed-trading group this morning (by the way, I m asking them all to start reduce and selling today or tmr... get out).
AirAsia : failed to breakout of RM3 and formed a doji at resistance. SIMPLE. SELL at RM3, and I wont be losing, right?
There are many reasons ... one of it called 'complacency' ... when you have profited in 10 trades consecutively, you will tend to THINK you are good and it will go YOUR WAY. .... talking about inexperienced, I need to improve in my DISCIPLINARY" aspect of trading ... if I m going to be good trader.
I lost in Simepro too.. Both ...my own stupid mistakes. haha.
Alcom : This one I shown recently ... lets just check now what news drove it up. Google it ...u will see the closure of largest alumina refinery in Brazil. That spike lasted 1-2 days and now we are seeing NEW low.
Cresbld : we can see the SPIKE for distributions ... and now it is back to base. Those chasing up, your greed is incorrigible.
ok ... lunch time and will continue later on those SPIKES. one can only view my updates from my blog ... and not from forums .
Tuesday morning ... 8.30am. As watching markets to open, it is my daily morning task for past 10 years?
Yesterday sold MRCB, POS, TENAGA ... great.
POS : hit 1.88 yesterday and was lucky to sell at day-peak.
Boilermac : At low too ... is it a BUY?
How low is low?
That question needed to be answered as MANY stuck up there in Boliermac, POS etc etc ... think LOGICALLY ... with brain. Do you think your stocks care if you could breakeven? What makes you think POS would be back to RM4 or RM5? How about Boilermac .... what catalyst to push it to bottom out from current 52cents level?
Padini : every FA-guru would like to mention her when it was strong uptrend, as if they bought her at RM1 or RM2 ...it hit RM6, as it they so great to sell off at peak ... and bought huge into her. Nope ... those are theories, don't be naïve to believe leh ... got brain, think a while. Do you think Padini could go up or down from here? The chart saying that short-term rebound is dead-cat ... and would be diving further. I m not sure what those FA-gurus would be saying ... high PER?
Market not even crash yet ... but retailers stuck up and inside Padini, GenM, Astro, FGV ....MYEG, DSconic, Presbhd, Iris ... wait, later I add in another 100 stocks.
Tell me when are you going to realize you will LOSE anyway, sell today or sell on short-term rebound as overall trend is DOWN?
What? GenM back to RM5? TM also back to RM5? Would Parkson back to RM5 or Coastal shooting back to RM5 then? Come on ... we all have better logical sense than merely HOPING
HA : Hope analysis widely applied in current market ... for many since 2015. STUCK inside IFCA, HengYuan, IWCity ... or crazy Sumatec, you wont escape and survive.
SELLING is a skill ... and most difficult to sell for losses. BUT A MUST, understand?
DOLLAR averaging in 2018-2019 is most stupid strategy anyone can recommend.
The quick ratio is an indicator of a company’s short-term liquidity position, and measures a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets. Since it indicates the company’s financial position to instantly use its near cash assets (that is, liquid assets) to get rid of its current liabilities, it is also called as the acid test ratio. An acid test is a quick test designed to produce instant results, hence the name
note : Taken from "investopedia".
Front page : ON THE DEFENSIVE
to be continued tmr ... want to enjoy my coffee and reading. haha
not only we need to get away from the noises of markets (forums, media etc etc), to de-cluster our lives ... we get rid of PRODUCTS and ITEMS. So ... to start with, shifting to a smaller place is a good beginning as it would force us to throw/give away many items.
In five years time, I wish to be able to call myself a "minimalist" ... without any watsapps/telegrams group to attach too ... even my own private stock-watch trading group would be 'dissolved' ... and only in touch with fewer individuals/humans.
Yup ... planning my retirement ahead in 5 yrs time. I do not which to be associated to any organisations and such ... but, I know I would still be watching markets (very much less) and move on to do my 'charity tasks' which in planning too.
workstation : the above is taken from a site ... nice simple set-up ... going to focus in making my trading desk/table nice and tidy too.
2019 is a trading year ... not for investing. It is still un-thinkable crazy for those STUCK up there, averaging those stocks lower and now ... crashing lower. But , short term ... stocks are ready to rebound ... so, I m still a net-buyer. haha
As 2018 ... distributions were on-going with many moving lower, once in a while, u see gap up or spikes ...example : Alcom
Alcom : Oct 4th the fate-ful day ... jumped 50% in a day as operators distribute to those naïve greedy (stupid too) retailers who jumped in. Some good news, if not mistake.
Be aware as we would have more such spikes to LURE stupid-greedy-inexperience retailers to jump in for them to exit. Yup ... many stocks at new low and it didn't come to THIS low in a month or so ... it is whole downtrending process, anyway. But ... due to greedy punters ... they would jump in and be trapped, as always. Will they change their stupidity? Er ... unlikely. Markets need such retailers to pump-dump.
Otherwise, we could not explain why people punting into DSonic or Presbhd at the moment. Many stuck up there, obviously and still holding (for whatever excuses). Many things could be explained ... but we need to go into explaining emo-psycho aspects of traders.
Benalec : Another nature of downtrending stock ... it rebounds without much volume ... spike a week for 10-20% ... and only to see lower ... and new low.
So ... avoid downtrending stocks with bad-deteriorating fundamentals ... and we have many stocks to avoid in KLSE. If you are stuck inside few of them, you would be a very loooong term investor. Unfortunately, most retailers would not cutloss (they too naïve and hoping their stocks would rebound for them to breakeven) ... and stuck for years and years to come.
There is something not so right about these dollar-averaging concepts which many preaching ... and most of us do not have any idea about analyzing fundamentals of companies. Some companies trading at low PER and huge discount of their NTA, yet it is not a BUY. Checking their quick-ratio ... oh boy, some companies in deep-shit ... and probably kena cash-call again ... understand how difficult it is just ... simple check low PER and high NTA to buy is VERY misleading?
No thanks to many so-called fundamental-analysis sifu/guru ... they continue to bombard us with those terms ... and showing us how stupid we are nothing understand XYZ they trying to point out, as if they profited well using those ratios. Don't be naïve ... markets not fully work on fundamentals, in fact.
Market works in CYCLE ... we called CA = cycle analysis. Now we have limited upside in most areas ... from economies to biz ... to squeeze of cash and high-debt ... and you name it, we are facing a perfect storm ... YET NO ONE TELLING US that we are CRASHING now as I write here.
I have shown waterfalls and new lows, had so many e-meetings since 2016 to warn retailers about TODAY ... way before the downtrend and new lows. So, I m telling you again ...the stocks you STUCK (Iris, Presbhd, Myeg ... etc etc ... no upside leh) would be going much lower.
KNM doesn't go below 10cents in a year, right? Heard of KNM when it was at RM1 plus? I knew KNM when it was RM2 plus. STUCK up inside KNM? No worry ... you are just one of the thousands retailers who knew nothing much about how stock works.
I m 'teaching' my group a simple term today : QUICK RATIO. haha
DO google and check QUICK RATIO ... it is very important to see if the company is liquid and can tahan or not the coming crisis as MANY stocks already in crisis.
Alert : APPLE is falling ... Newton discovered gravity.
Dufu : closed at RM1.58 ... the neckline was at RM2.20 level broken some time ago, an alert to all to SELL once RM2.20 broken ... well, majority do not understand technical-charting ... and still holding or buying?
Inari : closed at RM1.27 ... awaiting it to be back to be penny.
Gtronic : Yesterday ... diving below the neckline ... more diving to come.
More to come .... I exited tech in 2018 ... as I was trading them up in 2017. In 2019, it will continue to dive lower ... and yes, back to base. Don't talk about under-value, buy-hold ...ok? Most will STUCK inside many tech-stocks in 2018 and 2019 ... brace yourself to hold for 5yrs.
continue later ... more waterfalls to show everyone we are CRASHING since 1-2 years ago. Most stuck up there, keeping quiet ... will squeeze in their pain with more e-meeting. Already mentioned MUST cutloss since 2016 ...
good luck if u still holding stocks. Don't be naïve to average down.