Saturday, June 30, 2018
CIMB : bottom 3.60, peak 7.40 (rounding up for easier calculation purposes) so 3.60 + 7.40 = 10.10. So, we divide two = RM5.05
Level 1 : So that is the first level we buy CIMB is around RM5.05.
So what is our next level to average down if it goes lower than RM5?
Level 2 : Take the mid-point of RM3.60 and RM5.05 = RM4.32
Level 3 : 5.05 - 4.32 = 0.73 ... so, next level is 4.32 - 0.73 = RM3.60!! Of coz. that bottom starting point.
Of coz those fundamentalist ... giving us detailed calculations and somehow I do wonder DO THEY really buy into whatever stocks they complicatedly calculated? If they are so great in their calculations ... based on whatever ratios, are they very rich now, right? Why are they conduction classes to teach retailers ... how to calculate those financial ratios? Hmm ... we can learn all those ratios BY OURSELVES thru youtube, websites such as investopedia etc etc ...
Of coz those technical analysts ... will give us all those lines and levels to buy in. They might use Fibo-Retracements for this case ... or what-have-you ... so, I do wonder DO THEY really buy into whatever stocks at that level they have drawn, technically? If so ... why are they busy talking about waves ... or promoting their softwares? Why are they conducting classes to teach waves? We can learn those in through websites and youtubes, right?
Note : I will start to show websites and clips where you can learn for FREE (treat me coffee, ok?). You don't have to spend thousands on learning financial-ratios or technical-charting, ok?
The above I m using CIMB as example ... for an uncle like me to buy into. No need much of brain ... just for fundamental reasoning : CIMB down ... why? Will it go bankrupt? If not, can I can plan my buying in stages? How?
Use simple uncle-method (for your info, many smart uncles who know on surface the fundamentals and technical doing MUCH better than majority 80% out there). Use brain and common sense.
Use minimal ratios ... use minimal technical indicators.
Yes ... I m going to promote uncle-method ... a method requires experience and knowledge, yet less technical and less ratios. Because ... think of it this way, WHY unit-trust agents asking us to invest in UT ... and they charged us fees? Why those so-called sifu teaching us waves-trading ... while they can use it themselves to profit hugely in trading OIL or DOW?
This is 2018 ... we need to survival. Market will continue to be challenging ... what we believe and what we know may give us a light to help us to survive ... and obviously, we need LOGICAL brain to think ... to question ... the LOGIC behind things that is going on?
Ever wonder why "people" give you FREE TIPS in forums, watsapp or telegram groups?
Every wonder WHY these platforms conveniently created and you are invited or added in? And it is FREE?
Ever wonder ... why they promote you softwares in those groups?
Think ... as we need to survive. We can only survive if we are LOGICAL enough.
And no way anyone could tell you or teach you to be logic. Either you have the brain ... or you don't use it. You are naïve if you are new in markets (don't worry ... we all went thru such ignorant stage).
Do consider my uncle-method of dollar-averaging ... tho I disagree that we should average-down.
One day, this method would be useful during crash .... to discuss more, treat me a coffee(nothing is free, remember? haha)
Have a nice thoughtful weekend.
Tips : don't over-think ... if kills our creativities
Thursday, June 28, 2018
Well ... more to come. Wait .. with cash. CASH IS KING as BIJAN (reversed) said.
Tambun : Still watching ... waiting for 40cents?
Ok ... time to go for lunch.
Huaan : A weekly chart ... showing the bearish-ness ... how they PUMPED up from below 10cents ... to 60cents and MAKING the whole punter-communities in KLSE noticed them ... and some sifu-runners promoting them. Steel ke, coke ke ... China ke ... never mind. As long as it is goreng-ing up ... they will punt.
If one is a discipline good trader, we can benefit from the craziness ... when the whole steel-rallying, we trade Huaan UP. Once the stock went sideway ... and BREAK neckline, we get out. Sound simple ... look simple but never as simple.
The CSCSteel weekly chart ... showing the downtrending. Still holding? As the theme play is over, it is over. I m waiting for RM1.10 to be broken ... then only will check on CSCSteel again ... nothing to do with under-valued ... flat-steel ...long or short steel. It is about BIZ ... demand-supply, and yes ... theme-play-rally.
HiapTeck broken 35cents ... gap down this week, actually.
Protect you down-side. Think RISK.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Gap-down = SELL.
Understand simple trading-rule?
Understand the logic ar? Or want to deny?
Or prefer to HOPE it will recover ... one day. Or lying around telling others you are an investor? and you could hold for very long ... say 10years?
Or living in illusion ... telling others you bought at 50cents ... and you cost so low ... you are taken profit at RM2.80 level. You will sailang if it goes to 50cents again ... as it is under-valued?
OR ... you might want to face REALITY of investing/trading ... admitting WRONG and start to learn to accept FACT.
If you are not going to face the PAIN ... the pain will EAT YOU INSIDE. If not, you will NEVER survive ... 2018 ... and coming crash.
I m not sure Superln would go back above RM2 ... yes, might take years to come.
Market also no crash yet .... why are you stuck?
Because you are reluctant to cut-loss ... because you are in PAIN and FEAR. Uncertain.
Because you are a sucker for information ... and asking around with HOPE of some good news, not understanding WHY it went up in the first place.
See the weekly chart for the whole trend.
Downtrend leh? no meh? downtrend ... not sell meh? What ... buy more? Sure or not? U talk-rubbish again ... when want to wake up and be a man(or woman) and face your mistakes? What ... someone asked you to buy ... so, you just buy? You ingat beli sayur ar?
Then ... you blame others for your buying? Apa-la you ... harga kangkung also turun leh? No meh ... blame it on the kangkung, it wont mind.
What ? The person asked you to buy didn't ask you to sell ... so, you no sell? Apa la ... since when got such human out there to benefit you one , for free? Think la logic sikit ...
And if he already in markets for 30years, STILL not being very rich ... still telling you to buy, you still can believe to buy ar? Who to blame ar? You got brain ma ... you click the buy-button leh. You think got pistol point to your head meh?
paused --- sigh ---
All these are what we all have to go through ... the PAIN of profit (sold too early) and the PAIN of losses (most of them reluctant to cutloss ... so, paperloss lo). Some newbies ... even have the PAIN of missing-the-boat.
So, I started to give public e-meeting since 2yrs plus ago, HOPING to reach out to those newbies or those ignorant uncles-aunties ... who QUIETLY read forums (i3-forum is most popular and attracted many runners, operators and so-called sifus there ... so, it is deafening noises) ... to buy.
Take a pause ... take a look at OURSELVES. Take that first step. We have ourselves to BLAME. No one else ... we believe a sifu who keep harping on low PER = buy. Or someone telling us that the stock trading way below its NTA, so it is a buy.
Some of us believe the STORIES created by the 'sifu' who are hiding behind to promote stocks(we called them 'runners') ... and we do not know WHEN to exit/sell (for profit or loss). Most of the time ... when those stories are over ... operators have dumped most of their holdings and exited. Then, it would be a slow death ... but we are still hanging on her.
Have you heard of my stories ... when I was VERY new in market, back in 2008? Some 10 yrs ago? Wow ... it has been TEN YEARS. Haha
Here is how you lose ALL your capital (not easy unless you are ignorant).
LionDiv : I bought at RM1.81 before 2008 crash ... I was 1-2 months into markets. No forum yet back then (luckily) ... but my dealer said this is a very strong company. Target price given by IBs was ranging from RM2.20 to RM3. So ... cant be wrong, right? It owns Parkson ... and the name of William being mentioned to me many times. So ... ok, buy la. Wait for RM2.20 to sell, at least.
HUAT AR ... I quietly kept it to myself ... thinking of how to treat my wife a nice dinner. In 2008, I was totally broken and took loan to buy shares!! Hahaha ... so naïve.
Well ... LionDiv delisted? Oh boy ... it gapped down in MAC 2008 after the GE12 results out ... BN failed to win 2/3 majority for the first time!! I remembered I called my dealer ... what should I do? It gapped down 20% ... he said it is due to sentiment ...so can still hold.
I do not blame him ... I cut-loss all before I started this blog in Aug 2008. Painfully ... I do not know what to do ... so, I re-started my whole new mindset and re-learn about trading-investing.
It was 10 years ago ... I was THAT naïve.
Gap down in MAC 2008 for LionDiv is a SELL.
Learn that ... as we will see more gap-down ... keep my words for that.
GE14 given us an eye-opener ... GKent, Myeg, Eforce and such limit-down ... gap down is nothing. It is common.
BUT WHAT WE DO IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHAT WE KNOW.
Will have an e-meeting to talk about GAP DOWN = SELL ... one day, when we see 20-30 counters gapping down.
Now ... just those affected by GE14 la. So sikit ... also sudah sakit?
Wait ... wait for that day. You will NOT survive 2018 if you are still hanging in forums yak-king away, quietly holding to paperlosses ... and reluctant to face REALITY.
No one going to wake you up as you chosen to be in comfort zone ...where losers gather around, consoling each other ... it is OK ... we all lose TOO. An approval of losing la tu.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Properties-Index : I rided property-stocks when the whole theme play was in ... from HuaYang, Tambun, Malton, MKLand, MahSing (wb), PJDev ... etc etc ... to bigger cap such as SPSetia (selldown due to boss Liew exiting and created Ecoworld thru back-door).
Eventually ... the theme play will no longer in play.
Unless you are believing that we have reached the bottom of the property-cycle and heading for recovery, there is no good reason to buy into those properties-stocks. In case you think they are cheap at current low... always remember that LOW could only go LOWER.
One homework all could do is to check HOW long could last.
Time to nap ... zzz ...
Friday, June 22, 2018
Superln : Dived to RM1 and rebounded 50% plus ... only to see back to RM1.25 level today, diving 18% ... understand the idea of SELL ON REBOUND?
See how volatile as it is diving? It rebounded sharply ... only to experience ANOTHER selldown ... eventually forming a strong downtrend ... awaiting to go below RM1, and letting many retailers stuck inside, still believing in buy-hold-averaging 'good' fundamental stocks.
Nope ... u cant help these people. They have been brain-washed.
Thursday, June 21, 2018
KLCI bearish ... warned when hit 200MA resistance ... last week told all SELL ... then, e-meeting last night to tell all not to average down.
Retailers have been net-buyers since after GE14 ... today : foreign funds net-seller again ... and RETAILERS are the MAIN buyers. Haha
We are so immune and wanting to believe every DIP IS A BUY.
Haha ... allow me to laugh. haha.
Think of risk of getting stuck, ya.
No e-meeting tonight as I m in Penang. Too tired.
Ok ... may the force be with you if you are stuck inside and up there.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
Mieco : Dropped 60% plus from peak ... I m not sure why many still holding. Too painful to cut-loss and hoping that the whole sector would be in play again? If you are not the person who are stuck up there, you may not care ... or you are those arrogant human who care only for yourself? I knew many with such characters ... they will be wondering why should we care for those who stuck -- they are stupid? --- well, as if they never get stuck before.
Note : Evergreen, Hevea, Flbhd and such also in strong downtrend and I knew MANY stuck up there, not wanting to face reality and started to understand the importance of learning to trade uptrend ... with a cutloss to exit. CUT LOSS EARLY ... by the time it dropped 30% or more, it will become very hard to cutloss
Ok ..market not crashing anytime soon ... but I know MANY stuck up there in MANY stocks. Till they want to FACE REALITY, they will continue to ignore and deny ... and hoping they will recover.
Monday, June 18, 2018
11.30 am : KLCI down by 15 points , recovered from opening selldown of 25 points.
Sold : I sold of my stocks too ... YTL, Sendai and POS, which I bought last week. Thought market recovering ... now, we seeing red again. Keep cash again ... so erratic.
Sendai : Breakout actually ... so, can hold.
Evergeen (and such) : I do not favour the whole sector ... so, when someone asked me Evergreen and gang, I will assume they stuck up there. I don't see any upside in the whole sector ... those some claiming they are cash-positive companies. Sure?
Many retailers stuck inside many : such as MyEg ... and now, they saying it is cheap and buying into MyEg. That is how retailers lose more ... as they average it down. Many stuck ... and stuck more due to averaging-down ... we do not see CRASH yet. This is just a knee-jerk selldown ... NOT even correction YET. Wait till you see 1620 level in KLCI, ya.
Nothing much to do ... going to jalan-jalan and read books again.
Have a nice weekend.
CIMB : Critically ... see if RM5.80 can hold ...selldown continues ...
MayBank : Going below 200MA again ... and watching RM8.80 level.
PBBank : See if critical support broken by this week.
Note : If these three giant-banks breaking the critical support, we shall see KLCI to break the current support 1700 .... see you at 1620 level next to consider buying.
Sunday, June 17, 2018
Learning Corner : Sectoral check
Step 1 : Go to each sector-index ... check the weekly charts and plot the 20MA
Step 2 : Check if they are above or below 20MA. If they are below 20MA (weekly), go to daily chart to plot the 200MA ... and if it is below 200MA (daily) then, it is a DOWNTREND. Avoid is the best ...unless you are an investor to buy-hold-average-down.
Step 3 : If uptrend, then check the leaders in the sector ... those big-caps-giants ... and buy them if it is uptrending. HOLD till the trend is over. If prefer to take mid-cap or smaller-cap counters, we need more knowledge and experiences to pick good trending stocks for trading it up.
Step 4 : Buy-hold ... and watch it up ...till the trend is over. take profit and move on.
Consumer : the BEST uptrending sector (due to no-GST?) ... check Nestle, Dlady, Panamy and such leaders. Buy-uptrending-hold. Then ... check stocks such as Padini (breakout and strong uptrend) buy-hold and add. Do nothing till trend is over.
Construction : I traded the whole sector during 2016 up ... Gamuda, OKA, Chinhin, Econbhd etc etc ... today, so many tumbling down due to GE14. Some rebounded well after the 'news' stating that MAYBE HSR is not cancelled ... Gkent, Econbhd, HSSEB, Gabungan ... these shot up crazily. Be aware that these are strong downtreding and if you are NOT a trader, avoid is the best advice.
Finance : After the GE14, it broken the 20MA uptrend line ... and now, we shall see the start of downtrend ... in Maybank, CIMB ... perhaps even PBBank.
Plantation : sideway and at support but below 20MA ... note that MANY smaller plantation-stocks at new low or 52-w low ... yet, the index is well supported? Check KLK, Simeplt and such ... these giants are heavier weightage in the index. So ... buy only into big-caps uptrending such as IOICorp. But when it comes to good-valuations, I do find few stocks trading at huge discount. I m not an investor, so ... no intention to park funds into them.
Properties : Another sector to avoid and strong downtrending ... many at new lows too.
Technology : Rebounded sharply (MPI, GTronic, Inari, Unisem and such) and back above 20MA. Is it sustainable and supported? I do still like some of those mentioned counters.
Another two sectors : Trading & Service and Industrial Products ... they are mixed, many over-lapping biz.
Time to rest.
Have a nice week ahead and HAPPY FATHER'S day
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Selamat Hari Raya to all readers and traders-alike.
DOW : well-supported by 10MA (monthly) and uptrending ... will be testing 26,600 level soon. Once breakout, expecting a new high and challenging 30,000 level.
Note : That is how bubble-in-making looks like ... and strong good uptrending... ride it up. Go to US.
Someone asked me about SKpres ... I checked ... nothing there. Sideway 1.35 - 1.65.
SKPres : Awaiting breakout of RM1.65 level.
Friday, June 15, 2018
Nasdaq at new high ... and we are not in bubble, just yet. For crash to come ... we need to see euphoria ... and bubble is building up. Go US ... go for Nasdaq. That was my trading idea last year ... unfortunately, I lost (cutloss) and didn't hold ... now, many at new high.
Example : I bought Apple around USD96 ... now AAPL trading at USD190 level ... and going above USD200 is very likely.
AMD : While AAPL double our capital ... stocks such as AMD was trading around US2-4 ... today at USD16 level, breakout USD15. BUY-hold is the idea ...
Of coz ... for higher risk takers, go for 'smaller' caps ... and more volatile stocks which could still go few hundreds percent. Just make sure you will SELL DURING BUBBLE.
Alright ... buy another Nasdaq counter on pullback. Just bought one last night.
Trading idea : go to Nasdaq ... buy-hold till bubble.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
VS : it was crazy ride yesterday ... as I q to buy at 1.68 and it was done ... and dived to my next support ... got her all the way to RM1.55 ... crazy-fast-furious.
Once 1.55 broken ... we shall see the further downtrend. It has been downtreding ... and I did not check VS for some time.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
BAuto : Mazda selling well ... profit swell up
EPS : RM4.93 ...more than doubled. So ... up 6cents yesterday. Pending breakout ... so, we wait.
Note : I m not positive in auto-sector ... so, I wont be taking.
GKent : up up rebound ... reported profit up again ... EPS RM3.80
PohKong : not tradable ... don't know why surged so vilolently last year Aug-time ... now should be back to 47cents level. Wont take ... EPS dropped to RM1.05 ... last year Aug profit up. I see
Ok ... time to check markets.
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
Foreign Funds are selling
Tue, Jun 12, 2018 10:00 PM - 11:00 PM +08
Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.
How are we going to sustain with the continuous selling of foreign funds?
JHM : Sideway ... low volume ... and no retailers interested. used to be very HOT stock due to tech-rally.
EPS : RM1.43 ... has been dropping since last year ... accelerated so fast. Cooling off season. haha.
Note : I m compiling on these companies ... and checking their fundamentals ... during crash, these will be back to base and NO ONE will be interested. So ... we want to buy into them when others NOT interested or selling due to pain.
So ... preparing a shopping list ... before the selldown further coming.
Monday, June 11, 2018
KLCI candles are not bullish but KLCI up 6points at the moment ... after opening in red.
Short-term fluctuations ... and the rebound is not sustainable. So, I would rather wait for another selldown to buy again ... I have cleared all my positions ... with holiday and Raya around ... rest.
Sunday, June 10, 2018
Ulicorp : closed at low RM1.41. This is a monthly chart ... you sure you do not cut-loss when the support broken?
Latest QR showing EPS 42cents. Drop in earnings, drop in dividend ... don't look good. no thanks.
website : http://www.uli.com.my/
ChinHin : hit support 75cents ... and sharp rebound last week. EPS reported is 68 cents, the lowest in all the quarters since listed. Listed mac 2016 ... and now, we are back to that level after a construction-rally ...
website : http://www.chinhingroup.com/
Note : building material is not in favour.
DRBHicom : STILL LOVE MONEY ... minus 53cents, narrowed losses is considered good, is it? Well, this one of my trading stock and last week sold her off at RM1.94 ... it hit RM2.01 the next day. Now, pending pullback and can be traded again ... surged to RM2.70, Geely's stories ... and downtrending.
So ... can trade ChinHin and DRB but UliCorp is not.
Bank of America : Uptrending still, testing support USD28.50
Citi : weakening ... testing support USD66
Goldman Sach : weakening uptrend and watch critical support USD210 to be broken.
JPMorgan : uptrending still.
Morgan Stanley : Still uptrending ...
So ... financial-sector in US is still uptrending and bullish.
Note : KLSE's financial too ... many still uptrending.