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Monday, November 19, 2018

Stock Alert : Jaks




JAKS : gapped down last Friday ...don't really know why as I didn't read/check. Is it with STAR news again? or Mr Koon sold some of his portion ... I do know he is holding hugely in Jaks due to their prospects in Vietnam ... but didn't read the details as the chart tell me : AVOID.

But for investors, they do like to see fundamentals of the companies or the growth in earnings (some could be in very distant future) .. so, depressing price is a BUY. The lower it goes, it is becoming cheaper ... and during selldown, it is a strong buy. That is looong term investors la.

Trade at own risk. Once Jaks breaks 80cents below, we shall see further downtrend.

TEH

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Some HKSE's giants




HSI : technically ...bear-market.



Geely : (PER around 10) was a ten-bagger ... now, retracing and bearish as HSI in bear-market too.

site : http://geelyauto.com.hk/en/


Li & Fung : A fallen giant ... rebounded slightly from recent historical new low.

site : https://www.lifung.com/


TenCent : this is another giant ...one of the largest company (by market cap) in the world!! Dropped from peak HKD470 to current HKD270. good to buy?

site : https://www.tencent.com/en-us/


AAC-tech : Is it as buy? From HKD180 to RM50 level at the moment ... cheap?

site : https://www.aactechnologies.com/en/

Note : Is tech-rally over?

just checking on some HKSE's stocks.

TEH




Saturday, November 17, 2018

Plantations : mid-Nov



FGV ... tracking the fallen giant.

Few of popular plantation stocks which with negative PER are : JTiasa (-18.53),  Kretam(-373.72), PinePac(-2.47), RSawit (-1.74), TDM (-69.66) ... and so on.

note : AVOID all the above.



GLBhd : PER -5.66 with NTA 2.13 . Closed at 38cents

http://www.glbhd.com/

done a short e-meeting last night regarding CPO crashing down at the moment and why we should avoid plantation stocks.

Trade at own risk.

TEH

Friday, November 16, 2018

e-meeting : Plantation


Friday, November 16, 2018 10:30 PM


You have been invited to a join.me meeting

Join the meeting: join.me/cpteh2019

 Topic : Sector - Plantation
 
Will talk a little about PLANTATION as CPO dived sharply today to low ...
 
TEH

Thursday, November 15, 2018

KLCI : Dec 2013 components


Morning ... a check on the list of Dec 2013 (5 years ago) and few of those stocks which taken out of the index.

Top 30 : Dec 2013

AMMB
Astro
Axiata
BAT
CIMB
Digi
HapSeng
Genting
GenM
HLBank
HLFG
IOICorp
IOIPg
KLK
MayBank
Maxis
MISC
PChem
PetDag
PetGas
PPB
PBBank
RHBCap
SKPetrol
SIME
TM
Tenaga
UMW
YTL


AMBank : at RM3.96 ... PER 10.37 with NTA 5.60. PEAKed around RM8 in Aug-2013.


to be continued later .... https://cpteh.blogspot.com/

TEH


post #4451 : fallen giants


1am : KLCI last minute rebounded to close slightly green, but now DOW minus 100 ... still early.

FKLI : I have been active shorting FKLI as every rebound is a SELL. Done well for 3 days and would pause tmr ...

FCPO : at new low ... hope it gap down again tmr.


KLCI poised for a rebound from here ... but sustainable or not, I m not interested to know.

OIL : dived sharply of 7% ... long time no see such a dive.


Astro : huge selling volume. new low today hit 1.05. crazy. biz is bad as many no longer interested to watch ASTRO.


Armada : closed at 33.5cents ...new low too.



Parkson : at 34cents now ... another index-linked falling giants.

will continue to write about these fallen giants. RIP.

night

TEH


Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Stocks : OKA and Superln


2.45 pm : Since I m free ...just home from lepaking at Pyramid, let me check some of Fong Siling's portfolios. He is one of the well-known best investors around, and wrote many investing books.


OKA : at RM1 support. Wait at 45cents level.

2018 at #7 with 1.6mil shares.
2017 at #6 with 1.7 mil shares.
2016 at #4 with 2.2 mil shares.
2015 at #6 with 1.6 mil shares.
2014 at #6 with 1.7 mil shares.
2013 : not in the top30 list. Min shares needed 192k.


IQGroup :

Superln :

2018 AR: OKA (#7) , IQGroup (#8), Superlon (#9), RCECap (#11), Salute (#15), ToyoInk (#17), JTiasa (#18), GSB (#21), AWC (#30)

2017 AR : SKH (#2), Hovid (#3), RGB (#5), Notion (#7), Hevea (#9), 3A( #12), MBSB (#12), Homeriz (#12), Johotin (#13), Orna (#15), PoHuat (#18), Wangzng (#18), Solution (#18), Mikromb (#18), Karyon (#22), TGuan (#24), Latitude (#24)

to be continued here : https://cpteh.blogspot.com/

TEH

post #4449 : DOW closed minus 602



10.05 am : morning ... closed my short fkli positions. So ... now, awaiting FCPO 10.30am


GS : broken support last night.

DOW closed minus 600 last night. wow. GS dived 7% ... blame it on LGE. haha.

Free today ... no classes, nothing much to do. Will laze around, reading some books as I m packing.

time to move away ... keep fully in cash.

TEH

post #4448 : DOW minus 400


12.50 am : DOW minus 415 as I m writing here ...


Astro (PER 11.84 with NTA 0.1113)  : closed at RM1.18, at new low ... ever since taken off the KLCI, Astro has been on downtrend ... sharp rebound ... and going lower.

What would happen to TM (Telekom) if she is taken out of KLCI too? Think.

TM (PER 11.91 with NTA 2.0405) ... wait for below RM2?

Looking into Fong Siling's holding (besides 10mil of JTiasa), I do wonder if that are small portion of this funds, and he is holding to 80-90% in cash?

Fong Siling's portfolios

2018 AR: OKA (#7) , IQGroup (#8), Superlon (#9), RCECap (#11), Salute (#15), ToyoInk (#17), JTiasa (#18), GSB (#21), AWC (#30)

2017 AR : SKH (#2), Hovid (#3), RGB (#5), Notion (#7), Hevea (#9), 3A( #12), MBSB (#12), Homeriz (#12), Johotin (#13), Orna (#15), PoHuat (#18), Wangzng (#18), Solution (#18), Mikromb (#18), Karyon (#22), TGuan (#24), Latitude (#24)

2016 AR : ---to be continued ---

Time to sleep and check on those counters. night.

TEH

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Stocks : JTiasa, RSawit and Subur




As JTiasa going back to 2008 crisis level of 50cents ... it is still not a buy due to negative-PER.

JTiasa : trading at 53.5 cents, PER -19.44 with NTA 1.84

RSawit : trading at 17cents, PER -1.80 with NTA 0.38. During 2008 crash-crisis, RSawit bottomed-out at around 20cents!! Now we are trading BELOW the crisis level, ya.

Subur : trading at 70cents, PER -7.47 with NTA 3.22. So ... the chart showing us that Subur wend down from RM5 to RM1.50 level during 2008 crisis time, rebounded to RM4 spike for a month ... and downtrending since then!! Now we are more than 50% below the 2008 crisis level.



Do you or anyone STUCK inside any of these stocks?

Note : Rule #1 in 2018 ... do not buy losing money stocks. If you do not know how to cut-loss in 2018 ... QUIT. Get out.

TEH

Saturday, November 10, 2018

post # 4446 : Is JTiasa a buy?


JTiasa (code 4383) : closed at 53.5cents. Is it cheap to buy?

Website : http://www.jayatiasa.net/usr/financials_information.html

step 1 : checking on the health ... from the klse-screener, we can see PER is negative (PER -19.44 with NTA 1.84). that is simple step 1. If the company is losing money, we need to know why. Is it one off ... or been losing/bleeding for many quarters?

For overall, we could get yearly EPS which is under "financial highlight" and many listed companies would show such data (good or bad).

Ok : hear is what I have seen in this step-1 of analysis ... EPS 5.49, 3.27, 5.60, 1.25 and latest (2.87)

So ... we could see that the EPS from 2014 to 2018 has been decreasing. But, its NTA 1.84 is considered as strong (relative to its current depressed price of 53.5cents). Gearing ratio : 35% is high.

oh yes, I have assumed that we know core biz of the company (timber and plantation) ... so, basic idea on the price of timber and ffb/cpo is needed. Newbies have tonnes to learn from here.

step 2 : download the latest ARs (annual reports) ... preferably for about 5 years or more.

From the latest AR, the "chairman's statement" could be taken as overall view of the current financial situations of the company and also the company's directions.

Impairment : loss of RM30.1 mil

Decreases in : FFB decreased by 9% and CPO down 10% (at 2500) --- current CPO is around 2000, strong downtrend.

Production : log down 60% and plywood down 16%

Hike in timber premium (July 2017) by 74%, so the timber division making losses of RM27.3mil vs RM10mil profit in previous year.


so ... we check on their 'palm tree age profile' ... wow. 75% of the trees are at prime-age when CPO at lowest of price!! Talking about timing ...

From the latest AR, I saw Fong Siling (cold eye) is holding 10mil shares of JTiasa. As Fong Siling is a well-known investors (buy-hold), we would check further if he has been selling his positions, maintaining or accumulating. So ... we could go to 2014 to 2017 annual report.

Note : Here we do assume newbies know who cold-eye is.

A check on AR2017, Fong Siling was holding 4.33mil shares in JTiasa ... in the latest, he is holding to 10mil ... so ... means, he averaged down JTiasa?

Step 3 : go into the details of Balance Sheet and the Cash flow statements.

That would further telling us the stories on why the stock is trading current depressing level ...

Step 4 :Go to Bursa website to check the details of announcements and news related.

to be continued : https://cpteh.blogspot.com/

TEH

post #4445 : Steel sector




AnnJoo : (PER 4.51 with NTA 2.39) closed at 1.49. Peaked RM3.66 ... divide 4 = 91.5cents.



CSCSteel : (PER 8.46 with NTA 2.17). Closed at 1.11. Buy around 50cents.


LionInd : (PER 0.71 with NTA 2.72). closed at 71cents. wait 40cents level.


Masteel : (PER 2.74 with NTA 1.5842 ) closed at 49cents. Peaked at RM1.38 ... so, wait around 35cents. We are nearing ...



SSteel : (PER 2.32 with NTA 2.23) . Closed at RM1.13 yesterday. peak RM2.50 divide 4 = 62.5cents.


note : these are few steel counters in my stalk-list as I m watching them going lower, with no intention to accumulate. Trade ... yes, Masteel and LionInd still very active for short term trading. But all the stocks are downtrending. With constructions and properties bearish ... do you THINK logically ... steel will recover?

so ... those mostly in single digit PER ... it is still not cheap? I do know many retailers stuck up there ... especially the popular LionInd or Masteel ... besides, Mycron and such.

TEH


Wednesday, November 07, 2018

e-meeting : book-sharing on Irrational Exuberance



Irrational Exuberance

Wed, Nov 7, 2018 10:30 PM - 11:30 PM +08

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.

https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/556812829
will only share what I read tonight : two lines to share.

TEH

More waterfalls to check




IHH (PER 101.62 with NTA 2.57) : could easily placed under the falling-giant category ...but IPO was RM2.85, currently at RM5. So, we shall wait for it to go below RM5, RM4 ... and RM3 to place her to join the fallen giants.


BStead (PER 8.44 with NTA 2.98) : at new low too ... a fallen giant?


BPlant : a good dividend stock but CPO at new low. Not favouring plantation stocks.


Pintaras Jaya : strong down trend ... bearish on construction.

Just don't get stuck up there.

TEH

Monday, November 05, 2018

e-meeting : GenM gapped down



GenM : gap down

Mon, Nov 5, 2018 10:30 PM - 11:30 PM +08

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.

https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/302300237

discussion : buy, sell or hold/add

TEH


The falling 'new' giants



Astro : at RM1.37 ... was re-listed at RM3 ( 21-Sep-2012 ) and was a RM15b counter. Taken off from KLCI ... and dumped by funds.


FGV : IPO RM4.55 (31-May-2012), currently RM1.42 (ex-div 50cents since listed) ... so, it is down from RM4.05 to RM1.42. Market cap at current is RM5.18b



Malakof : IPO RM1.80 (17-Apr-2015) . currently at 87.5 cents (ex-div 22.3 cents since listed) ... so, it is down from RM1.577 to RM0.875. Market cap at RM4.375b now.


LCTitan : Still watching this RM10b company ... IPO RM8 RM 6.50 with 2.3b shares, making its market cap around RM18.4b  RM15b (16-Jun-2017).

to be continued : https://cpteh.blogspot.com/

TEH

Sunday, November 04, 2018

US : some Nasdaq100 stocks





Nasdaq-100 : below 200MA ... bearish too.


Apple : down 6% on Friday .. but still a good uptrending stock.



Facebook : bearish crossover and downtrending now.


Cisco : still uptrending.


e-bay : strong technical rebound last week, strong downtrend.


Qualcomm: nice weekly candle for entry (buy).


Texas Instruments (TXN) : Supported at 100MA at the moment, broken neckline and bearish.

many more ... some downtrending ... some still uptrending tho going through a correction at the moment.

TEH

Sector : Timber-related





Taann : ( PER 15.31 with NTA 3.06)


JTiasa : ( PER -19.44 with NTA 1.84 )


Subur : ( PER -8.17 with NTA 3.22)


WTK : (PER -1.94 with NTA 2.14)

Note 1 : They are into plantation (palm oil) too.

Note 2 : Lingui de-listed.

LISTING'S CIRCULAR NO. L/Q : 67367 OF 2013

Notice : Further to Listing Circular No. L/Q 67102 of 2013, kindly be advised that the shares of LINGUI will be removed from the Official List of Bursa Securities with effect from 9.00 a.m., Friday, 22 March 2013, pursuant to Paragraph 16.07(b) of the Listing Requirements.
Note 3 : The six biggest timber players (Swak) are Ta Ann, WTK, Shin Yang, Samling, Rimbunan Hijau and KTS.
 
conclusion : AVOID
TEH

Nassim N. Taleb





Nassim : The Black Swan man ...speaking ...

search him up ... an intelligent person.

TEH

Friday, November 02, 2018

Penang Trip


Morning ... DOW up another 265 points, after oversold ... rebounded sharply for third day now. Budget day for us ...


US-trade risk subsides ... market rebounds and rallying. Buy... buy!!

Penang Trip : off to Penang today ... meet-up tmr night for those wish to meet. contact me.

off.

note : to continue tonight

TEH

Thursday, November 01, 2018

飘摇 by 周迅





飘摇
演唱:周迅


风停了云知道
爱走了心自然明了
他来时躲不掉
他走的静悄悄
你不在我预料
扰乱我平静的步调
怕爱了找苦恼
怕不爱睡不着

Fēng tíngle yún zhīdào
ài zǒule xīn zìrán míngliǎo
tā lái shí duǒ bùdiào
tā zǒu de jìng qiāoqiāo
nǐ bùzài wǒ yùliào
rǎoluàn wǒ píngjìng de bù diào
pà àile zhǎo kǔnǎo
pà bù ài shuì bùzháo

我飘啊飘你摇啊摇
路埂的野草
当梦醒了天晴了
如何在飘渺
啊爱多一秒恨不会少
承诺是煎熬
若不计较就一次痛快燃烧

Wǒ piāo a piāo nǐ yáo a yáo
lù gěng de yěcǎo
dāng mèng xǐngle tiān qíngle
rúhé zài piāomiǎo
a ài duō yī miǎo hèn bu huì shǎo
chéngnuò shì jiān'áo
ruò bù jìjiào jiù yīcì tòngkuài ránshāo

你不在我预料
扰乱我平静的步调
怕爱了找苦恼
怕不爱睡不着

Nǐ bùzài wǒ yùliào
rǎoluàn wǒ píngjìng de bùdiào
pà àile zhǎo kǔnǎo
pà bù ài shuì bùzháo

我飘啊飘你摇啊摇
路埂的野草
当梦醒了天晴了
如何在飘渺
啊爱多一秒恨不会少
承诺是煎熬
若不计较就一次痛快燃烧

Wǒ piāo a piāo nǐ yáo a yáo
lù gěng de yěcǎo
dāng mèng xǐngle tiān qíngle
rúhé zài piāomiǎo
a ài duō yī miǎo hèn bu huì shǎo
chéngnuò shì jiān'áo
ruò bù jìjiào jiù yīcì tòngkuài ránshāo

我飘啊飘你摇啊摇
路埂的野草
当梦醒了天晴了
如何在飘渺
爱多一秒恨不会少
承诺是煎熬
若不计较就一次痛快燃烧
若不计较就一次痛快燃烧

Wǒ piāo a piāo nǐ yáo a yáo
lù gěng de yěcǎo
dāng mèng xǐngle tiān qíngle
rúhé zài piāomiǎo
ài duō yī miǎo hèn bu huì shǎo
chéngnuò shì jiān'áo
ruò bù jìjiào jiù yīcì tòngkuài ránshāo
ruò bù jìjiào jiù yīcì tòngkuài ránshāo

note : very nice song.

TEH

Selling on strength




JCY : downtrending ... spiked for two weeks for distributions and at new low, drifting lower.

Morning ... I had an e-meeting on selling on strength, selling when it spikes and cut-loss those stocks we are stuck up there, during good market sentiment (like now).

I gave Sapnrg,  IQGroup, Alcom .... Magni etc as examples. Stocks do not go to new low in few days or weeks ... they will rebound. If we are stuck (like most out there now), time to cutloss is when it rebounds ...

example now : LayHong and many more!!

the thumb of rule is when it rebound about 30% ... some only 20% rebound before it dived ... some rebound more than 50% ...that we could never know.


IWCity is another typical example of operators exiting with pumping it up ... spiked and dumped. Well ... IWCity was a popular stock back then (Malton and Ekovest were in play too) as it surged crazily ... and many retailers stuck. THAT short spike could be the last call to SELL on strength ...cut-loss and let her go.

Will these stocks spike again? we don't know ... we cant tell that as we don't know if the operators have exited all their positions or  new operators taking over the pumping task. What we do know ... the down-trending stocks, with purely speculating (poor fundamentals) would continue to be downtrending ... and eventually 'disappear' from being popular (example : IFCA  and many more).

It is very hard to sell for losses ... so, cutloss 'early' is definitely difficult but a must in 2018. It is also very difficult to sell-on-strength, seeing markets/stocks rebound sharply ... and to sell for losses, but it is also a must as distributions on-going in many stocks (Constructions, Properties, Plantations, Tech etc etc)

one may join my trading group to learn on these 'survival' skills ... and you would be better prepared for the down-side ... rather than just talking about profits.

Stuck in stocks?

contact : cpteh@yahoo.com or 012-821 0129

TEH

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

e-meeting : Sell on rebound



Morning to DOW plus 400. That is how volatile market is now ... KLCI flattish ... foreign funds are still net sellers.

8.50 am : FKLI up 13 points.

We are heading end-oct buying ... as many retailers stuck up there in many popular hot-stocks such as Frontkn, Hibiscus, Layhong ... and many tech-hot-stocks.

9.30 pm : e-meeting ... sell on rebound

Sell on rebound

Wed, Oct 31, 2018 10:15 PM - 11:15 PM +08

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.

https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/208765693

 

TEH

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

DOW swing 900 points



Morning ... ManC is too strong ... they beat Spur 1 - 0  to go top again.

DOW was plus 300 points ... but closed minus 200plus points. Brace for further selldown, if you INSISTED holding to stocks, stuck and averaging down, the choice is obviously yours.


LayHong : dived further to 34cents. It will go back to back 30cents ... interesting but those stuck and averaging down, you cant talk logic with them.

new lows ... what is new to those holding to many new low stocks, drifting lower and some without much liquidity.


Redtone : at new low ... a must to avoid. Saw Gpacket diving 10% today ...

Sapnrg : also hitting new low at 31cents. AVOID.

To check on new lows ... we could check properties, O&G ... and plantation. Many stocks at new low.


I have shown Century Logistic at new low ... checking on TNlogistic ... and GDex too.

time to settle stuffs ... off

TEH


Monday, October 29, 2018

Sector : Plantation




BPlant :

FGV :


IJMPlant :

JTiasa :


TaAnn :

TDM :

THPlant :




TSH :



WTK :

to be continued   https://cpteh.blogspot.com/

TEH