Monday, March 07, 2016

Crash or Bull?

Morning ... KLCI up 15points  and we are above 1700 now.


Breakout of the 200MA resistance. We shall see u at 1735?

What crash? Why just 1-2 months ago many yelling crash? Now ... yelling bull? How are we to decide what is what? Make up our mind la ... bull or crash?

After watching The BIG Short for the fourth time yesterday with a tratle, I was playing with the idea to SHORT FKLI or DOW ... hugely!! Take the extreme high-risk ... and wait for crash? 2016 will not crash ... so, it is silly to short too early.

He shorted housing-bond in mid-2005 ... waited for 2-3 yrs!! Wow ... was paper-loss hugely and funds down 19% ... but when he was right about the subprime crisis, he gained 489% for Scion Capital. Incredible analysis ... against all the investors wish ...

GAP DOWN ... it will be a norm in 2016-2017.


Armada is our STAR today for gap down ... hit 75cents ... at 82 cents now (10.15am). Most of the gap-down stocks will be hard to climb back to the cost-price as it will be drifting lower. ARMADA ... many subscribed to the right-issues having huge losses.


Armada ... check the weekly chart to understand how many people and funds stuck inside. Armada was an index-linked counter, u see .... blue-chips and AK's counter, they said. But ... the cruel dive in crude oil prices bringing more O&G counters to their knees.

There are many more gap-down stocks which I want to share here ... but just imagine this ...

MARKET NOT CRASHING YET ... but stocks gapping down and MANY STUCK INSIDE HUGELY.

Imagine ... if market starts to crash ... what do you think of the price of the stocks you are STUCK inside? Up or DOWN?

So ... THINK carefully if we are buying into speculative counters ... the whole O&G sector in deep deep RED ... those vessels ... those exploration ... with PETRONAS cutting capex ... laid-down few employees ... and expecting lower profit-margin.

We need to cut-loss if we are to be able to capitalise on the coming crash. Wait ... or we afraid of missing the BULL rally to ... hmm ... 1900? 2200??

All need to decide on that. If u r newbie(less than 3 yrs in markets) you will not understand the RISK you are exposed to. Not many honest people around (not in forums or media, mind you) ... if you are novice(like me ... less than 10 yrs), you will know a little the importance of CUT LOSS ... yet you may still not cutting-losses.

But if you are patient to WAIT ... great. Wait for crash to buy? Let's go bungee-jump ... haha.

I will like to write about my coffee-date #5 with a banker. It was a good chat about preparation of market crash and he appreciated my sharing with him so much(wait, you still owe me a dinner, ok?)

Time to go ... SHORT FKLI. haha

TEH



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