Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Punt : EKA or Bison?



Another resting day for me ... so, I went for coffee alone to read a trading book. I have many books to read but hardly find the time ...

... as KLCI up 10points today, rebounded from 20MA support and going into end-month Mac (window dressing ... April will be un-dressed?).

BISON bulling into KLSE today ...

Anything else?

Oh yes ... I got to know that ANZO is that goreng-Harvest. Haha ... Harvesting during end-May, ya.

Those newbies in KLSE will not know the nice Harvest flew from 20cents plus to RM2 plus in less than one month!! Haha ... and CRASH ... trapped all greedy gamblers and punters. Feel sorry for those ignorant ones!!

Perhaps I should show all EKA which I discussed in my weekly e-meeting with my trading members, REMINDING them not to punt or gamble in such stocks ... market NOT crash yet. Capital preservation is rule #1 in trading as ... when market REALLY crash ... one fine day, we NEEDS my tips #2 ... BULLETS to buy as huge as possible.


EKA ... try to guess who STUCK inside ... those NEVER learn their lessons punters/gamblers la. Kena burnt from Sumatec ... XOX ... CSL ... Hibiscus ... those kaki-punters making noises in kopi-tiams, forums or telegram/facebook group!! They will NOT learn ... and will get badly burnt or stuck when market ... finally decided to CRASH ...

Ok ... I have given TWO tips for preparation in market-crash so far

#1 : Cut Loss or Capital Preservation

#2 : Preparing bullets

It overlaps ... as if we do not cut-loss, how are we going to have bullets? If we stuck inside EKA (slap yourself for being ignorant, move on) ... how are we going to escape? Nothing could be done except HOPE ... they will goreng again la.


As I was reading the book, I found these lines ... so, I took the pix and sent to our facebook-group ... to remind my trading members NEVER to buy so-called cheap stocks. Those PENNY ... those greedy to play on few bits. The bad HABITS ... will be VERY VERY difficult to correct.

Due to that ... as I m planning to be a good trader, I have to refrain myself from punting here and there. I create a system to trade, in order to be consistent.


Example : EconBhd ... waiting for breakout to take position as construction in play at the moment.

I traded EconBhd previous ... as I could understand the fundamentals and characteristics better ... than EKA?? Both is E ... one in play to TRADE ... another is to PUNT ... see the difference between traders and punters?

Traders PLAN ... buy on breakout. Cut-loss if breakout fails ... punters buy EKA for 2 cents spike, hoping to earn some pocket money. In loooong run, who will be consistent?

THINK before you punt in your next stock!! Majority in KLSE are PUNTERS ... not traders or investors, ok?

I shall leave this page ... with an advice for newbies (less than 3 yrs in KLCI). Do not bother to punt ... you will lose to the operators and ... you will regret, one day. Keep bullets ... prepare for crash, ya!

Have nice day

TEH

Monday, March 28, 2016

Resting week


Monday morning ... good morning!! I am still thrill by my trading-workshop yesterday as it has been a while that I conducted one. Anyway, few could not make it due to cheng-beng or Easter-day.

So ... I will re-schedule another one next month (24th April) for them. Those interested to participate, do contact me. Thanks.


EG : I read about their planning to list in SET(Thai's exchange) ... is it? I don't read much but the chart is not good. It has been down about 30% plus from the peak and now we hope that it wont break 83cents ... otherwise, the next support would be around 78cents. Yes ... running so so fast last year ... do you chased and failed to cut loss?

With classes slowing down due to exams going on, and KLCI on pull-back mode (cleared all), I will want to take a rest .... and planning for April to come.

What I will be reading ... are related to stock-market crashes and preparation for it.

The S&P500 and DOW bearish-crossover was discussed last night, showing charts and some sites, stating 2016 is a CRASH year. Many yelling that ... including R.Kiyosaki.




So ... listening to the bear-camp ... and I still don't see why 2016 will crash??

Perhaps ... we just prepare for it?

#1 : Capital Preservation

#2 : Prepare Bullets

#3 : Tools

#4 : Knowledge and Experiences.

These are my pointers I m drawing them out at the moment.

Time to go to gym ...

TEH

Friday, March 25, 2016

Furniture stocks : Abandoned




LiiHen : For discussion with my trading group, especially those in e-learning group.

Can we buy into LiiHen at the moment?


PoHuat : Kinda similar chart, indeed.

Tonight have a meeting with few members to discuss platforms, tools, instruments ... in preparation for market crash. Interesting ...

See you on Sunday for my trading workshop!

TEH

Thursday, March 24, 2016

KLCI is over-bought


Morning ... waking up to see oil&gold and DOW down ... 1USD = MYR4.02


As for KLCI, foreign-funds are back!! They are buying into blue-chips such as Tenaga and Genting. That helps the index surging higher ... and we are hitting resistance soon (next at 1735 level).

RSI (relative strength index) which I m using to gauge the fear-greed in market showing at high level ... above 70 is considered as overbought!! I was sharing with my current e-learning group about RSI last night ... showing to them the charts of Genting and Tenaga, which are overbought too.


Genting is going into HIGH-land ... the theme-park opening?

Hence, I maintain in cash position after sold off THPlant(at RM1.29, bought at RM1.18 last week) and BIMB yesterday. No trading for a while as market is over-heated now .... but ...


THPlant : A non-liquid counter ... following many plantation counters ... as CPO going above RM2600 level, hitting RM2700

.... due to the strengthening in MYR (vs USD), many so-called export-oriented stocks are diving again. Check-out FLBhd or Kossan ...


Kossan ... will not trade this time around. Good luck if the current level broken, more downside! The whole sector was over-played and many greedier ones, last minute jumped wagon .... and still do not get out ... are stuck inside. Sorry ... time to move on.

Time to rest ... as not trading this week.

This SUNDAY,  I will have the basic TRADING WORKSHOP and planning for the next one end of April too. But this week is the BEST as the market is HOT ... and we could learn to catch few stocks next week or so when they DIVE again.

Good luck.

TEH

Monday, March 21, 2016

TIPS # 2 : Prepare bullets


http://cpteh.blogspot.my/2016/03/cohort-19-trading-workshop-next-sunday.html

Morning ... Monday's blue as the reds lost last night. Sigh ... their defence really questionable.

In trading, we do need defence-system to work ... cut-loss to manage our losses, for example. We win trades ... but if we are to lose hugely, we will be wiped off too.

Ok ... I have done my promotion of my coming-workshop. And as this week I m kinda free from many tuition classes, I will slowly write about my coffee-dinner dates, which still round in the questions on HOW we could prepare for coming market-crash?

TIP #2 : Prepare bullets



When I asked casually to all my 'dates' on what we should do ... to prepare for crash ... so far ALL of them answer : PREPARE more BULLETS (funds/money).

Ok ... they got is partially right. We all needs fund to BUY hugely during crash. That is understandable about easier said than done leh!!

Before we go into other TIPS ... lets focus in this second TIPS : Where to get money(legally la) and more funds?

Going back to TIPS #1, cut-loss. Yes ... that is ONE of the way to get back our capital.

http://cpteh.blogspot.my/2016/03/tips-1-cut-loss.html

In case you missed my first very important TIPS ... read the cut-loss tips first. Otherwise, we will be STUCK inside XOX, Sumatec, Hibicus ... hmm ... THHeavy and many more. How to find fresh funds when we are all over the places, punting here and there ... and followed many so-called sifu/remisiers/broker reports/forums/blogs .... except our own decision??


THHeavy ... trading at 14cents. LOADS of money stuck inside there, expecting it to recover to sell? Ok ....


UMWOG .... if we have it at IPO value(was it RM2.80?), at 90cents we could not do anything much ... once 90cents support broken, we shall see more downside .... and more funds STUCK inside.

So ... hoe to prepare bullets when MANY retailers stuck inside here and there?

The tips #1 was ... clear ALL losing counters which you blindly bought into them and LEARN the bitter lessons!! Remember, market is ALWAYS there ... but will you be there, prepared?


TIPS # 2 ... to get more bullets, refer to TIPS #1 first.

Then ... think of how to take LOANS. Yes ... personal loans, credit-card loans ... hmm ... overdraft, gadai house ...

I went to Melaka last Friday, a day trip to meet two of my e-tratles(first batch of my e-learning ... some 3-4 yrs ago!!) and to discuss with them about their preparations on market-crash.

Interesting enough ... one of them(my senior) said ... take loans via credit-card. It is only about 5% (mine is 7%). Yes, that is one way .... say we have credit-limit of RM15k, have good track records of clearing the balances ... we stand a good chance to get loans from them!! I don't know what they called .... but I have taken before the personal-loan.

When time comes (by end of this year) I shall max the credit-card loans ... and paying 5-7% interests(p.a) ... and use the money(BE DISCIPLINE) to buy stocks during market crash!!

Sound easy? NOT at all ... as most of people have credit-card balances. Some will just pay the minimum(I was one of them some 6 yrs ago, I should know) as they are squeeze of cash(yet keep buying more items).

Then ... once u have cash in hands, DO NOT USE or trade. Sound easy again? Not at all.

Most will spend the money ... or jari-gatal syndrome to punt ... and lose the money!! Serious issue of planning and discipline!!

One of my date (#5) told me ... an uncle sold his house to have funds to buy into market crash in 2008, but was LURED by friends into some MLM ... some scams, I guess ... and lost his huge some of capitals!! At the end, he missed the WHOLE 2008 market crash!!

Can you imagine how difficult it is to be DISCIPLINE when it comes to money? Will you drive a kap-cai or cheap Proton ... so that you could SAVE as much BULLETS as possible, awaiting for market crash?

It is THAT difficult as most of us following the crowds!! It is called HERD-mentality. No cut-loss ... no discipline ... jari-gatal ... etc etc.

NOISES in market too tempting to ignore. That explains WHY 80% of them will get stuck inside stocks when markets crash ... and 80% will not be prepared enough bullets to BUY. Serious?? You really THINK (needs brain again... that is something most do not use in trading) they will buy during crash? Hmm .... that will be next coming TIPS.

For a time being ... we could open a margin account, get personal loans ... withdraw our EPF (to trade) ... borrow from relatives/friends (give them 8% return la), get over-draft ....and save as much as CASH .... in preparation of BULLETS for the crash!

Are you are most are ready? They are still at TIPS#1 ... wondering what to do with their Sumatec, Iris, Wintoni and such, ok?

Get real. Be prepared. Treat me coffee ... and I shall interview you, getting more tips on how others preparing for market-crash(MOST of them do not).

TEH

Sunday, March 20, 2016

cohort-19 : Trading Workshop (next Sunday)



Sunday ... just came back from classes!! I m supposed to attend some talks/seminars but due to exams nearing, students needing extra tuition classes ... and have to skip the talks.

Anyway ... wanting to 'promote' my cohort-19 which is planned NEXT SUNDAY (27th Mac) as next week onwards, I will be a little free (students going for their trial exams) ... so, I will be preparing for my coming trading-workshop!!

cohort-19 : Sunday 9am to 6pm.

Topic : basic of trading using charts ... trading-plan and management of risk/money.

contact : 012-821 0129 or cpteh@yahoo.com

This is for those who wish to learn basic of charting.

Today I read an ebook which I bought yesterday about trend-trading. The term is LONG TAIL stocks/markets.

I m checking on these and making myself have that understanding and will like to share it 'online' in an e-meeting with those in the tratles-page : https://www.facebook.com/tratles/ 

The link will be sent there.

Time to reflect on my trades and notes for the preparation for market-crash(sharing them with those coming for next week workshop!)

See ya.

TEH

Monday, March 14, 2016

Dinner Date # 6


I met a reader (who is 3yrs plus in trading KLSE) ... for a dinner. After a whole day of classes, I was very tired but ... an interesting topic about trading, preparation for market crash ... and a free dinner ... motivated me!

So ... we met at Din-Tai-Fung. A nice restaurant as I do like Chinese food.


Ok ... nice dinner on him. If u r reading this post, thank you again for meeting me.

Question : Mr The, do u use different time-frames for your trades in KLSE's stocks?

The answer is NO. I only use daily chart most of the time. At times, I check on the weekly chart. So, I do not use hourly or 15min/5min time-frame(TF). To me ... KLSE's stocks lacking liquidity to use shorter time frame and the consistency is not there.

Anyway, he is using hourly chart to good effect ... hence, I will try to check on that ... and see if I could have entered at better price. We always learn from each other.

Ok ... that was Thu ... I told him, I have sold most of the stocks but bought two stocks : Supermax and KMLoong.


KMLoong : Out trading group bought at RM3.15-RM3.17 level as it was bullish. This was spotted by one of tratle(been with me for 3-4 yrs) and I thanked him for the good spot. But ... I sold ALL on Friday as it is reaching resistance RM3.30. At the moment, it is still up (breakout in making today!!) above RM3.40 now ... and I might buyback during pullback.


Supermax : Bought at RM2.73 level on Thu ... but have to sell at RM2.76 on Friday as I m clearing most of my stocks. There is no follow through to break above RM2.80 and ... yes, MYR strengthening might hurt the sector-play again. Supermax was lagging behind Kossan, TopGlove ... and even Harta. Karex got bonus-issue play ... but I sold for small profits in Supermax. At the moment of writing, Supermax trading at RM2.68.

So ... once sold KMLoong, if it goes higher, we could buyback. No need hai-ya ... I sold too early la. Or once sold Supermax as planned(no follow-thru above RM2.80, SELL .... these was given live and planned for my trading-group before bought into, ok?) ... no need to fell ...phew, luckily I sold Supermax on Friday.

See? One .... sold too early. One ... luckily sold.

As traders, we need to plan and execute. No point attending few thousands ringgit of trading course/workshop and waste the money as one will not learn how to EXECUTE. It is the emotion control that is needed ... not those indicators blah-blah ... I am SURE 80% of those attended workshop will STILL lose money in trading!! Sure.

So ... I asked him ... do you attend any trading course since you are new in markets? He didn't. He self-studied (great!! ... do that consistently, do not listen to those course preview, selling you their workshop and software!!). He read my blog and like it as I talked senses, according to him la. I cant be lying about what he said ... as he is reading my lines now!! haha.

But ... he said he wanted to join my workshop as his ex-colleague (IT line) went for my e-learning last year and found very useful! Oh ... his friend is in my trading-group since last year!! Well ... I reminded him about the first TIPS for market-crash preparation ... it is called CUT-LOSS.

No point holding to huge paper-loss or if trades going against us. He agreed to maintain discipline.

Anyway ... as he is new to markets and no experiences in seeing crash in markets, I could understand that he could not have the FEEL yet. So ... the only way I could advise him is to capital-preservation way ... by cut-loss on our bad trades.

He wants to meet me again ... well, as I will be seeing more dates ... I will go round-2 with him ... perhaps, next year.

Note : Join my workshop end of this month, if possible, ya. Thanks for the dinner.

TEH

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Bullish sentiment ... again?


It is Sunday ... I do need a good rest after being attacked by heat-wave.

This morning, I brought my family for the hot-balloon air festival at Putrajaya. But after 11am ... it is very hot. We took a boat-ride ... to hide away from the heat but it is still VERY hot. Came back ... and took a good nap!!

Anyway, I received a call regarding my up-coming uncle's style of trading-workshop. I m glad he called (012-821 0129)... and that is the easiest way to explain the contents of my 8-hour workshop(cohort-19) this coming 27th Mac. Yes, after a day workshop, one may continue to join in my stock-watch group which we will trade 'live' together and attend e-meeting every Monday night for updates and further learning purposes.

Cohort-19 : A one-day workshop on 27th Mac(Sunday) from 9am to 6pm. e-mail cpteh@yahoo.com

Back to some analysis ... as I m in full-cash position while the market inching higher!!

DOW breaking higher ... up 200plus points, above 17000 level now. Soon ... all those yelling CRASH will be quieten and those so-called sifu-promoters coming out to say ... gogogo to many stocks. Will penny stocks in play again? Now we are goring-ing few hot stocks, so that the operators could DISTRIBUTE more to the greedy ignorant retailers ...

and ... stuck inside them ... then ... after distribution ... it will be quiet again during market correction while the bearish camp yelling CRASH. And the cycles repeat ... while we will be in heat-wave .. in daze of the going-on.

Bull or bear ar, actually? Can just tell ar?

I posted an interesting chart there : Go to https://www.facebook.com/tratles/ and like the page, ya!

I m still bullish in equities for 2016(but not for long) and ... as gold break 1240 resistance, GOLD will be in favour in such uncertainty time. We have negative interest-rate coming into market, we have more QE from Japan and ECB ... yes, China will continue to cut-rates to ... err ... spur the economy? Devaluation of currencies ... and so on. Not to mention the politics ... US election ... to Malaysia's 1MDB stories. By now, many of us knew Zeti is stepping down and guess who will be up there?

Thinking of that ... it wont be good for MYR, right? Besides, Jim Roger's is bullish on USD. So ... once USD-index break 100 level ... we shall see the export-stock theme in play AGAIN ... and do u know why? Because operators need to DISTRIBUTE to retailers ... knowing that 2016 onwards will be of high risk to be in equity-markets. Well ... if we are newbies, we will be hit ... and stuck into such ... and by the time we realised ... we are in deep red.

For example ... those China-stocks. Check out CSL if you like stationeries or MSport if we like shoes!!


CSL : This will NEVER recover for those having her at IPO level or punt into her after it surged ... I remember RM1.40plus? Now at 10cents level.


MSports : 3yrs ago ... it was at 50cents level. A remisier-friend asked me to check on them as someone went to check on the company in China and was impressed with the company's plan. I told him over the dinner that I do not trust those data published in Bursa by these companies (from China). So ... I will not dare to touch. Now ... it is under 10cents? Will never recover too.

There are many more ... XinQuan, Maxwell ... got one wine-stock? I can't remember them as I have deleted them from my list some 3-4 years ago.

Note : Many China-stocks listed in KLSE are low PE, cash-rich ... and shown good biz-plans. But alas ... many are empty talks and taken their listed status for a ride. WE ... the ignorant retailers STUCK into them ... and that is kinda ... stupid of us?

Do you want more examples how we ... as retailers are vulnerable and could be caught into these stocks ... and STILL hoping to recover? Don't hope ... facing reality is pain, but it is a must.


AAX will be another example ... for a failed IPO. right-issues at 22cents, IPO was at RM1.20(adjusted to around 80cents) and it went below 20cents ... with the turn-around stories out, now we are seeing 30cents with many funds/retailers STILL stuck at higher price.

SPACs : How about the failing of SPACs ....? Bunga-raya layu comes into mind as I lost in the dive!!



 Hibiscus :There you are ... from RM1 plus ... dive till 20cents level. They cant find oil ... and too bad.

If you are very new to stock-market ... welcome to the legalised-casino , where you are playing with many crooks!! Not many people will tell you the truth ... including 'media'? Be street-smart. ASK ASK ASK ... use common-sense(which NOT common in stock-market).

Seriously ... that is how many newbies STUCK in so many stocks and do not know what is hitting them. You need to pay me for dinner/coffee if you are to ask me. Come to my trading-workshop or join my trading-group to understand more.

I have not given many more examples on the speculative counters such as ... err ... Sumatec, XOX,  Iris ... oh yes, our baby IFCA(forgotten liao ... many still STUCK inside leh). Many more ways ... how retailers lose money. I could write a whole chapter for my book!!

If you are losing money now and market NOT crashing yet ... still STUCK inside many stocks and market NOT even crash yet ... do be VERY worry.

IF you hope for CSL, MSports ... err ... AAX to move back to IPO value, perhaps help yourself to wake-up to reality.

Move on ... prepare for the market to crash ... one day, we might be able to recover the losses and gain hugely?

BE PATIENT.

TEH

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Listen to the Sound of Your Dream


Morning ... it is 11am ... I have just finished a tuition-class. Busier for past few weeks due to exams nearing ...



As for trades, KLCI rebounded today and I have nothing much to trade. Just took Hevea at 1.23 (like the number) and sold at RM1.30 yesterday due to hitting resistance 20MA. Few hundred bucks is ok ... and now rest. Doing nothing ... I will listen to inspirational clips.

Sharing this morning title "Listen to the Sound of Your Dream"




I do not know her ... I saw someone in FB sharing this clip and like the title ... and been listening for 3rd time now as I m 'banana' ... I cant understand 30-40% of what she is trying to share. I will listen to 8-10 times ... and trying to figure-out what she is trying to say.

But I knew she is trying to share how she struggled and listen to the sound of her dream ... and realising and living it now. Great inspirational stories ...

I do have my own stories to share ... my struggles since I was in KK ... from being financially broke some 10years ago when I have my boy ... to current level, where I no longer in debt but still struggle to find the roadmap to my dream ... of financially free!!

I have been in markets for some 8 yrs now ... no longer a newbie. I m in novice level, dreaming of capitalising from the coming market-crash.

The dream came in 2009 ... where markets recovered so so fast ... and I do profit well in HKSE.

So ... since then ... I have a dream of profiting from the next market crash. Yes, how could I position myself to gain hugely ...

In 2009 ... I have just lost so much during the 2008 crash. I was too new ... I do not understand many things ... but I promised myself to gain hugely in the next crash!! To do that, I need at least 5-6yrs of experience ... and now , I m in my 8th year ... hopefully market will not crash in 2016 as I m not prepared YET.

Did you ever dream ... plan for YEARS ... and understand that we need to be patience, preserve and persistent? My 3 "P" that in my mind.

While many more yak-ing around about trading, talked a lot in forums etc etc .... I m in my own focus ... to make sure I m leading to my dream.

Listen to the sound of my dream ... I know I m going to realise my dream ... soon?


Two days ago ... I went to my first radio-interview. This internet-radio is quite new (1 year old) and this is Mr Eric who interviewed me (together with author Andrew Chia, one of my guru ... so privileged to join them).

They interviewed me about how I managed to get-out of my full-time teaching in colleges for 20plus years ... and quit my job(mid 2014). Yes, I opened my own tuition-center (A-Star tuition center). Turning to be an entrepreneur has been everyone's dream ... but never mine.

My plans of quitting full-time job(for 5 yrs of planning, actually) finally materialised. Then ... what is next? Well ... as I mentioned during the interview ... to open another center this year!! Expansion is the only logical plan!!

But ... nothing came easy ... nothing. In fact, it is too difficult as it needs courage ... and take that plunge! Being a teacher for 20plus years, confined to classrooms ... I knew NOTHING about biz. So ... that is scary, honestly.

Ask any entrepreneurs ...

What is my dream again?

Answer : Financially independent.

From my failures in goring-keropok back in Sabah ... failed in 2008 with my initial stage being in markets ... I have tried too many things and failed too many times.

But .. my focus is still there. To learn well about trading so that I could capitalise on the coming market-crash. I want to be prepared.

If my tuition-center could grow further ... and turning into a college one day, why not?

I may-not be too ambitious ... I just want to be financially free ... to be able to support my family, help those needy-ones ... and be able to be free to travel whole Malaysia on my bike!!

The moment is nearing .. as I m meeting another date tonight for dinner (date #6). The topic is ... HOW are we preparing for the market crash?

Time for lunch ... classes whole afternoon later.

Have a nice day.

TEH






Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Stock Watch : VS



This morning I wrote about VS ... just giving example that we do need to CUT-LOSS if the strong support broken ... in the case ... RM1.10 cannot break-leh.

I have bought VS recently at RM1.19 level and sold off in 3 days time at RM1.30 level as it hit 20MA too fast. Today will be a good time to buy at closing with many more "EXPORT" stocks rebound last minute ... due to MYR4.12, is it?

Oil just breached USD38 ... but most O&G counters in KLSE not re-acting to the 'good' news.

cohort-19 : I m planning to have a whole-day trading workshop end of this month (27th Mac) ... and those who wish to learn ah-pek style of REAL trading .. from real trader, contact me at cpteh@yahoo.com or 012-821 0129.

Time to rest ... and will write more.

TEH

Tips #1 : CUT LOSS




This is weekly chart of VS ... showing important support at RM1.14 level ... and today, it is testing this level again. Once broken ... expect more down-side.

I shared with my trading group ... given them the FIRST TIP of preparation for market-crash.

It is called CUT-LOSS.

As painful as it could be ... it is a MUST to execute to preserve capital. Heck .. you will lose 20% or even 50% of your funds ... cutting losses ... but look, MARKET NO CRASH yet leh ... what is market really crashing down? Do you think you stock(s) will go up or ... lower?

More TIPS coming up ... but I need to go for my interview now.

TEH

Monday, March 07, 2016

Crash or Bull?

Morning ... KLCI up 15points  and we are above 1700 now.


Breakout of the 200MA resistance. We shall see u at 1735?

What crash? Why just 1-2 months ago many yelling crash? Now ... yelling bull? How are we to decide what is what? Make up our mind la ... bull or crash?

After watching The BIG Short for the fourth time yesterday with a tratle, I was playing with the idea to SHORT FKLI or DOW ... hugely!! Take the extreme high-risk ... and wait for crash? 2016 will not crash ... so, it is silly to short too early.

He shorted housing-bond in mid-2005 ... waited for 2-3 yrs!! Wow ... was paper-loss hugely and funds down 19% ... but when he was right about the subprime crisis, he gained 489% for Scion Capital. Incredible analysis ... against all the investors wish ...

GAP DOWN ... it will be a norm in 2016-2017.


Armada is our STAR today for gap down ... hit 75cents ... at 82 cents now (10.15am). Most of the gap-down stocks will be hard to climb back to the cost-price as it will be drifting lower. ARMADA ... many subscribed to the right-issues having huge losses.


Armada ... check the weekly chart to understand how many people and funds stuck inside. Armada was an index-linked counter, u see .... blue-chips and AK's counter, they said. But ... the cruel dive in crude oil prices bringing more O&G counters to their knees.

There are many more gap-down stocks which I want to share here ... but just imagine this ...

MARKET NOT CRASHING YET ... but stocks gapping down and MANY STUCK INSIDE HUGELY.

Imagine ... if market starts to crash ... what do you think of the price of the stocks you are STUCK inside? Up or DOWN?

So ... THINK carefully if we are buying into speculative counters ... the whole O&G sector in deep deep RED ... those vessels ... those exploration ... with PETRONAS cutting capex ... laid-down few employees ... and expecting lower profit-margin.

We need to cut-loss if we are to be able to capitalise on the coming crash. Wait ... or we afraid of missing the BULL rally to ... hmm ... 1900? 2200??

All need to decide on that. If u r newbie(less than 3 yrs in markets) you will not understand the RISK you are exposed to. Not many honest people around (not in forums or media, mind you) ... if you are novice(like me ... less than 10 yrs), you will know a little the importance of CUT LOSS ... yet you may still not cutting-losses.

But if you are patient to WAIT ... great. Wait for crash to buy? Let's go bungee-jump ... haha.

I will like to write about my coffee-date #5 with a banker. It was a good chat about preparation of market crash and he appreciated my sharing with him so much(wait, you still owe me a dinner, ok?)

Time to go ... SHORT FKLI. haha

TEH



10 Ways to Prepare for a Stock Market Crash


10 Ways to Prepare for a Stock Market Crash by Lawrence Meyers

Date : 21st Jan 2016

Wall Street is off to a terrible start to 2016. The broad indices are falling — as of this writing, the S&P 500 is off 8% in just three weeks — major technical indicators are now in bear market territory, overall economic data is miserable and earnings are being revised downward.

None of this is good for the market, and I think we are headed for more downside — possibly a market crash.

So what precautions can you take against a stock market crash? Well, a lot depends on your own risk tolerance. There are many choices, and the level of your conviction will determine the strategies that are best for you to prepare for a market crash.

I have 10 suggestions, from conservative to aggressive. And as a note: My strategy in general with a stock market crash is to do a little bit at first, and as the decline gets worse, pile on to the strategy even more.

#1: Always set stop-losses.

You’re not always going to be hovering over your computer ready to tinker with your brokerage account at a moment’s notice. And that’s why the stop-loss order is an investor’s best friend. A stop-loss order simply lets you sell your stock at a predetermined price, or buy shares once they hit a certain price. You can do these either on a dollar basis or a % basis. So, for instance, you could set an order to sell your shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) once they’ve fallen 10% from the time of the order, or you could set an order to sell your shares of Apple once they reach $90. You decide how much pain you’re willing to endure, and let the market do the rest.



TEH : CUT-LOSS is a MUST ... even if it is PAINFUL. Recently I have to cut-loss POS as the support RM2.20 broken. This is my worst trade for 2016 .... and it is just 2 months into 2016. Yes, I have done many-more good trades but the fact that CUT-LOSS is painfully IMPORTANT, we must exercise that.

So ... whatever stocks we are buying and holding now ... REMEMBER to place a cut-loss point. We do not want our fund to be STUCK into those non-performing ones ... and seeing it drifting lower and when market crashing down, WHATEVER we are holding will be give 30-80% discount.

#2: Stay the course.

The easiest and best choice regarding a market crash is to do nothing. If you own a long-term broadly diversified portfolio, you can ignore the market and focus on the long-term, because 30 years from now this decline will look like a blip. My biggest lesson in diversification came during the financial crisis. The market was down 55% at its worst, but my broadly diversified portfolio was only down 35%. That might sound like small consolation, but considering I clawed my way back to breakeven before the rest of the market, then went positive before anyone else, I felt pretty good about my overall strategy.

TEH : TOTALLY disagree ... it is kinda silly to ignore the crash ... perhaps, I do not have 30yrs to see the return. I would rather SELL ALL and get out in 2016 rather than still into equities ... diversifying etc etc. So ... my point will be GET OUT FOR GOOD la ... then wait for crash to buy. Many 'newbies/novices' told me they will buy during crash ... and not now, I was like ... "ARE YOU SURE? Without experiences and knowledge HOW is one going to do that? Market corrected 5%-10%, all yelling crash ... and you are buying during REAL crash?" ... These are from naïve investors/traders .... or someone have misled them. Well ... told everyone that market is the only place people do not want to use brain to think.

Look .... if you do not dare to ride the roller-coaster, FORGET about bungee-jump or diving from plane, ok? GET REAL leh ...zzz.....

#3: Raise cash.

If I believe in a company and it is up significantly since I bought the stock, I won’t touch it. For example, I’m sitting on a 70% return in Walt Disney Co (DIS) even with the current decline. I don’t care. The company will survive. However, if I own a position that is 5%-7% from breakeven, either up or down, I will sell out and take the cash. The idea is that if I truly believe we are heading lower, I can get back into the same stocks at lower prices, or reallocate to other opportunities that become available.

TEH : This makes better sense than #2 ... sell first, raise cash ... get loans, sell house ... car ... underwear. Raise that CASH as cash is king during market crash, ok?

#4: Hedge with modest short positions.

One thing I’m doing right now is hedging my overall portfolio by deploying available cash into some inverse ETFs. This will give me downside protection against my long positions that I intend to hold. I opened a 2x leveraged short in the S&P 500 using  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), short the MidCap 400 using  ProShares Short MidCap400 (ETF) (MYY), short the Nasdaq 100 via ProShares Short QQQ (ETF) (PSQ), and am shorting the Russell 2000 via ProShares Short Russell2000(ETF) (RWM). This all comes to about 20% of my total portfolio, so I haven’t shorted everything, but I have set up a solid short position to hedge.

TEH : In KLSE ... we could short-FKLI (future months instead of spot if one is not trading) for hedging purposes. But ... FKLI is manipulated and not liquid. Well ... it is still an idea to hedge.

#5: Sell covered calls.

You can use options to hedge your positions as well. Take any stock or ETF you own, then sell covered calls against it. That means you are being paid so someone else has the right to purchase your position from you at a given price on or before a given date. So you collect money for selling the contract, and if the stock price is not above that strike price you contracted at, you also keep the stock. Thus, you’ve collected some funds against your position that hedges your downside. Now, you will pay capital gains taxes on those profits, but you may end up offsetting them if you harvest losses during the year.

TEH : I have not reach the OPTION-TRADING stage ... but I m moving into CFD-trading now ... where we could short some selected US stocks. Yes ... must learn how to short stocks, including KLSE's counters.

#6: Purchase puts.

The opposite of selling covered calls is to buy puts on any stock or ETF, whether you own it or not. Here, you are buying the right to “put,” or sell, that security to someone at a given price on or before a given date. You don’t have to hold the stock, because your broker will trigger a matching buy order at that same price. It’s a bit like shorting a stock, except you don’t actually borrow shares to sell until the exact moment of execution, when the shares are then immediately purchased by the put seller. If the price falls below the strike price you contracted for, plus what you paid for it, your difference is the profit. Thus, you’ve made money on the downside.

TEH : I will NOT buy put-warrants which traded in Bursa. EXTREMELY risky. No comment for those trying that. Good luck.

#7: Short Highfliers.

Another alternative, if you really believe the market is going to fall, is to hold onto your longs but short the highflying stocks. These are the most vulnerable to fall with the overall market. Stocks like Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are the companies I’m suggesting. You have to be quick on the trigger and very nimble. If the market turns back up, they could regain momentum. However, on the downside, they are likely to fall more than the overall market, meaning you may be able to hedge your long position very efficiently.



TEH : Yes ... if we see the stocks keep going to new high and way above the valuation, a good way to profit from the market-crashing is to SHORT these high-fliers. Ok ... will SHORT Tesla next week.

#8: Reallocate equities into exchange-traded debt.

This is a strategy that I just thought of last week. The stock market has been in a terrible place, yet exchange-traded debt is doing just fine. In fact, many issues are seeing buying interest and pushing prices up. Even when they went down, they didn’t fall nearly as much as the overall market — not even close. The reason is that this is debt and not equity. It’s much safer to invest in debt, so consequently the ETDs tied to debt issuances are becoming a kind of safe haven. You can even get paid interest while you wait out the tough time.

TEH : No comment

#9: Reallocate equities into preferred stock.

This is basically a similar concept as moving into ETDs. In this case, you are moving out of common stock to a stock-bond hybrid that is preferred stock. Most of these issues have been relatively stable as well. Preferred stock is tied to only one thing — a company’s ability to make good on its preferred dividends. Well, the common stock falling due to a lousy market has virtually no bearing on this issue. Thus, you can move into preferred stocks, which will hold value and pay dividends quarterly. Remember, though: Selling out of stocks may trigger capital gains.

TEH : No comment

#10: Sell out and go short big-time.

Frankly, I don’t advise this except for aggressive traders. This isn’t investing. Here, you are selling out of all your long positions, taking whatever capital gains or losses with you, and shorting the heck out of the entire market and/or individual issues. Now, if you think the market has a definitive short- to medium-term bias, then go for it. You can do very well. On the other hand, be aware that the market’s long-term expectation is to go higher. So you have to know exactly when to cover your short position, lest you get caught in a monster rally.

TEH : This is what I m preparing to do ... after 2016 (I said liao la ... 2016 no crash leh) ... prepare for BIG SHORT by mid-2017. If KLCI going up to 2000 level, SHORT leh. By then, the IBs and many sifus coming out .... yelling 2500 or 3000 level for KLCI and all the FEAR of crash disappear. I HOPE such situation will occur ... but highly unlikely ...

SHORT HSI or DOW, then.

Good night

TEH

Friday, March 04, 2016

Watch : The BIG SHORT


I bought the DVD ... to watch it over-and-over again ... and to start to short FKLI in BIG when we see craziness in market (when the herd is back ... and blue-skies everywhere).



If you have not watched the movie ... and you are in financial-market, perhaps the movie might interest you. If you do not show a sign of interest at all ... perhaps, financial markets NOT suitable for you.

SHORTING HOUSING BOND? He must be crazy to go against the banks!!

Me? Crazy person like me will be watching the movie ... and inviting friends to watch with me!! I will put up the screen/projector ... and I will explain how we could do that --- BIG SHORT.

How is that?

To start with, I m meeting few readers/traders who have e-mail to me (cpteh@yahoo.com ) on their preparation. One of my preparation is thru FKLI.

Dinner-date : Tonight, I will be meeting a person who seen 2008 market-crash and he wrote me a detailed ways of his preparation which one of the pointer is very good. He was from my e-learning group and will be glad to meet him.

So .. I m preparing for my another date ... collecting ideas what we should be doing, in preparation from the market crash ... BEFORE it crashes.

Have a nice day

TEH

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

AirAsia at resistance




KLCI daily chart ... hitting 1680 at the moment, 200MA at 1678. Yup ... see if could breakout of 1680 resistance.

Note : I am in cash position ... with nothing much to do. So ... I m free to blog.


AirAsia is HOT now ... due to profit-report. Hitting resistance at 1.60 level NOW ... someone ask if could buy? NO NO ... it is a SELL leh. High RSI, at resistance ... good news out in bullish sentiment. Sell la ... can wait for retracement to RM1.45 support la.


Dinner date : I have responded to THREE readers who wrote to me regarding discussion on MARKET CRASH ... and preparation. Yes, they wrote in kinda details on how THEY are preparing. It will be a good date ... to share with them my preparations too.

For those wish to share with me HOW you prepared(or preparing) for the coming market crash, e-mail to me(cpteh@yahoo.com)  ... with few concrete pointers. I will reply and get-in-touch with you. We will share opinions and experiences on how we could capitalise on the coming crisis.

http://cpteh.blogspot.my/2016/02/how-do-you-prepare-for-market-crash.html

prep·a·ra·tion (prepəˈrāSH(ə)n/)
 
  1. the action or process of making ready or being made ready for use or consideration.



By the way, I have met FOUR of my friends ... for coffee-date. The same question I posted to them ...

date # 1(PJ SS2): He joined my trading-group and learning about trading/investing in KLSE. His father was active in Bursa too and profited a lot from 1998 market crash. So ... he wants to treat me coffee(thanks) to have some pointers on how to prepare for market-crash. Well ... he could always have guidance from his dad too. Prepare "BULLETS" , he said. Haha.

date #2 : He is an author of a book and I read his book when I started trading some years back. Glad to have known him and becoming friends.

date # 3 : He was with my e-learning group(batch one) and been following my trades closely. Learning trading a hard-way ... practical real trades. And he is obviously not prepared for the crash, yet.

date #4 : Last night had a dinner with ex-colleague ... could only ask her to get out of markets, keep cash and wait for crash ... then, look for me again!

As I m too busy with classes, those meeting me need to be around PJ/SJ ... but I have responded to one from Penang. Yes ... I will drive up to meet him ... as he wrote me good pointers on his preparations.

More coffee-dates to come ... as I m talking to more investors/traders ... personally.

Will share my compilation ... perhaps into a book!! Haha

TEH

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Stock : GCB




GCB : This stock was hotly discussed last Dec as it was surging higher and higher ... without much pause. This is a weekly chart ... and from what we could see ... the PUMP started end of NOV ... accumulation could be around 75cents-95cents.

It went to hit RM1.60 ... wow ... huat-ar ... as many more buying into my fav McD's GCB(double) burger.


There ... if I m hungry and in rush, I would just run to nearest McD to grab my GCB.

Joke aside, GCB at RM1 as I m pointing here. DUMP.

There are MANY such P&D stocks ... if we are aware of them. It is very difficult for us to trade as we need to GET OUT before the dump-wave coming ... but those good traders could trade well ... and ride on the trend. Now the trend is DOWN ... do not catch.

As I have sold most of stocks last week ... this week is watch and see. No buying just yet. Today KLCI up tho DOW minus 120points.

Time for lunch and yes, you got it right ... I m going for GCB today.

Have a nice week.

TEH