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Monday, September 17, 2012

Malaysia Day

Besides our Merdaka Day(31st Aug), we came out with another day to remind ourselves that we are a 'family' ... a big united family, 1-Malaysia ... or whatever we have heard for years. No racist statement should be thrown, in the view of coming general election. Yes ... I would be naive if I am to believe in such soothing words. I was very naive, say ... 20 years ago, believing that Malaysia 2020 would make our country a proud developed country, placing us on par with those developed countries of the world. Seriously, my views regarding many gov policies have changed 180-degrees as I've grown up, working for 20+ years, reading tonnes of books/articles relating to Malaysia's politcal lives. We are in fact 55-years ago, can we still claim that we are in infancy age? Excuse me ... look at Singapore. We were on-par in 1960s, ok? Today we need RM2.50 to buy a dollar there. If u dont understand that ot what is tghat so, it might not bother you much.

I have 'left' political scenes .... in my own sense means, I no longer want to read anything relating to Malaysia's political news or anything much about the politics. Sigh.

If you are in KLSE, you do need to know some politics ... who is linked with who. Which counters are considered as GLCs, which companies supported by what funds ... etc etc. These are important, so I could not totally divorce myself from the developing news, political front. And with the general election(GE) around the corner, we need to know how to trade on such, what are the fear-factors and such. For example, those with higher foreign funds related counters(AirAsia, CIMB, MayBank, Genting, KLK ...) are in risk of the funds exiting due to political risk. That could bring our KLCI lower and definitely will give us the fear-factors towards our counters(lower liners). With bearish sentiment lurking, we do not expect more upside from here ... QE3? Queen Elizabeth 3 visiting Malaysia? Very unlikely ... those cheap money might give China-property another round of headache, while another rally for HKSE.

So, what would you do with such situations? Will we maintain to buy into DiGi or Maxis ... or whatever counters we are looking into in KLSE? With KLCI valuations is at the higher band, while HKSE valuations at lower bands ... which market is more attractive? How about the political risk involving here? We can't short our  stocks and the only way I could think of is shorting the FKLI. Perhaps one may want to try some put-warrants attached to some stocks but the risk is too high too as liquidity is really the main issue there.

Hmm ... what is in mind? What should we do? I have basically trying to explain my outlook(I am not a guru, not an economist, nor a market commentator) ... I dislike the high valuations in KLCI, I dislike the political risk attached to our KLCI, I dislike the manipulations of our stocks, I dislike the high level of KLCI(resistance 1655). I dislike Sept/Oct where these are spooky months for markets. Oh yes, Obama election is coming ... could that be in my 'dislike' list too?

So, I will like to short FKLI, I will like to buy cheap HKSE's stocks. Grabbing a gold ETF could be another good choice. Making money in markets is difficult as we need to try to understand the direction of each money markets. Knowledge itself is not sufficiently enough, we need to take actions and protect ourselves.

cohort-7 : I had my module 4 with this batch and stayed back till 7pm+ as some experinced ones asking me some questions. Yes, they would be very glad if only they knew me earlier. Words could not described my satisfactions when they thanked me and noting that my course worth all their money and time to learn. Money could not buy me these smiles?

Well, Happy Malaysia Day ... to us, it is a good day, we could have another day off from our daily job, and to be with family.

AirAsia : Due to the rebound of AirAsia(thanks to QE3 news), many in my group are profitting now. Some sold for profits, some still checking to sell higher.

Johotin : This is another counter many in our group bought(below 1.90 levels) and profitting well.

CIMB, UEMLand, MRCB ... all rebounded and some who bought into it profitting well too. I got few SMS and messages telling me that they are glad to listen(to sell before market came down and to buy during that 50points correcton).

Be happy, win or lose ... Malaysia day or not. BN or PKR. It doesnt matter ... what matter most should be what lies inside us. Are we satisfied with what we have?

TEH

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