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Monday, October 31, 2011

We are at resistance and overbought level

Noon ... been too busy to write ... as market moving to resistance level and into overbougth region, it is only logical to reduce our exposure and wait for correction. Of coz one may argue that he is a longer term investor and the coming correction will be a good time to average up, and riding on the current bull-rally. Bull or Bear rally? We dont even have the dicrection?

The Double-E

ENG : Seen some buying this morning and decide to take positions on her. Will increase my positions if breaking 1.62 today.

EAH : Shooting much higher today ... so, taking small positions.

Losses : I have cut Hibiscus-wa for a loss and it is the largest loss(of RM700+) so far in months. Yes, the last was in July when I cut-off many ...

SEGi : Up at ... 1.80 today. Some accumulation seen ... pushed up today.

Heard of the quote " Be fearful when others are greedy?". Of coz we do ... but but ...

TopGlove : Spent some time to share with my tratles(in our CLOSED facebook) regarding how we should buy into good stocks in order NOT to lose money. Two of them, BL and Jess are in postitions around 4.10 level. So, at 4.30 today, what is next? What I share with them are for their learning purposes. Profit-loss is their own responsibilities. It is my responsibilities to check that they DO NOT lose money by taking too much of risk.

RISK : It is many IGNORED and many more novices could not even understand. With 90% of them losing money in markets, dont you think so something is VERY wrong here? Who will tell me that they are in markets to lose money? But they do lose money!! And they dont even know WHY??

AirAsia : I was sharing with my cohort-2 and cohort-3 about risk-reward ratio. I mean, it sounds LOGICAL but how many of those in KLSE understand such simplest concepts? AirAsia being used. It is ridiculous to buy AirAsia on Friday at 3.95 level!! Whoever done that DO NOT KNOW much about markets? WHy not buying at 2.95 level?? Can I ask?That is what I done in classes ... sharing with them SIMPLE and BASIC of concepts of Support-Resistance and how to use it to calculate our R-R ratio. If I missed AirAsia, what will be my next entry level ... if any? Will AirAsia break RM4.20 level? Hmmm ... stop guessing!! If u are going to read NEWS, AirAsia always in news, anyway. Arghh ... how did QPR fair? Hmm ...

Penang Talk : So far, only 3 of 8 of those initially shown interested e-mail me. Do e-mail me if you are interested. Fees will be RM75 each for 2.5 hours. It will be THIS coming SATURDAY. This will be the only Saturday I could be free ... till end of year? I hope to get at least 5 of them. Thanks

3.15 pm : KLCI almost flat now but HSI down 200+ points.

Tenaga : Haha ... losing money, went down this morning and now in green? Hmm ... who is buying?

4.45 pm : I am still at office to finish my paperworks!!

KLCI in green ... and I am wearing long sleeves green shirt today!!

MaxBiz : Haha ... I was laughing when I checked the top gainer of the day!! It is up 50% today!! Yeah ... in one day, for a stock to shoot ... 50% ... it must be a well-loved stock, ok? Let me recalled what I read about MaxBiz years ago ....? Hmm ... their equipments kena-curi? Hmm ... then, PN17 ... with some investigations on, right? Memory failing me ... as I was reading about MaxBiz to understand how these irresponsible CEOs and managements continue to CON the public and suck the retailers!! My policy ... do not buy PN17/GN3 counters.

11pm : DOW down by 100+ points, dragged by banks such as BAC, C, MS, GS and JPM. WFC is down 2% too.Yahoo dropping 5% now.

Brokerage MF Global bankrupt after euro debt losses


NEW YORK - Struggling US brokerage firm MF Global filed for bankruptcy Monday, after confidence in the firm was shattered by a string of losses from European public debt holdings.

Shares in the brokerage -- which at one time held approximately US$41 billion in assets -- were halted on the New York Stock Exchange early Monday in anticipation of the move.

While MF Global is well-known on Wall Street, it is not thought to be so interconnected that its collapse could trigger a crash like that seen in the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.

But attention immediately turned to JPMorgan Chase and subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank, after MF's bankruptcy filing showed those firms to be the firm's two biggest creditors.

JPMorgan was said to have a claim of over US$1.2 billion with MF linked to bond holdings, while Deutche Bank had a claim of over US$1.0 billion.

Shares in JPMorgan fell 3.6 percent on the news while Deutche Bank's US-listed shares fell 8.1 percent.

Ahead of the bankruptcy filing, Chris Low of FTN Financial wrote that MF's downfall would be "the biggest US casualty so far in the European sovereign crisis."


"Hopefully, the firm's situation is unique. (Chief executive Jon) Corzine's bet on sovereign debt is what got the firm in trouble. According to regulators, other, bigger US entities are not exposed."

The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal earlier reported MF was to issue the filing as part of a plan to sell off assets to Interactive Brokers Group, although it was still not certain that deal would go through.

Taken from : Channelnewsasia

Last week I shown the chart of this MF Global's global chart. It dived below USD1 and rebounded to USD2 the next day!! Talking about 100% profit in a day!! But, well .. at 1.20 now, filing for bankruptcy.

Another chart I shown(US) is NetFlix. It went to lowest at USD74, and at USD83 now. Still watching to see the development ... and want to watch if they ever recover from their bulnders.



TEH

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Monkeys See Monkeys Do




Heard of the term 'herd mentality' in trading or investing, right?

I will want to write more about it as it is affecting most of us ... when market rebounds higher, we tend to be overly-optimistic and ignore the logical thinking. We tend to follow the crowd and convinced that it is the direction we should be following. Nothing is wrong about that ... it is our instinct. It is in-borne in us ... we have our genes to blame? Hmm ... in trading and investing, we do need COMMON SENSE, not our overly- charged emotions(up or down). That is why we have guidelines ... such as PE/PB etc ... or RSI/MACD, for example.



TEH

Saturday, October 29, 2011

My Trading Class

Last night I am done with my cohort-2, so that they will be combined with cohort-1 for meetings(fortnightly) starting next Friday!! Yes, these meetings becoming more important than the five basic modules. You see, they have been with me for 2-3 months now, enduring my hours of lecturing(very cheong hei also, keep repeating some rules and regulations!! Haha). There should be around 12 of them from Cohort-1 and 2 remaining. I am a realistic person, I see those dropping-out found that I am not suitable for their future progress or found reasons to dislike me(or my systems of learning), hence decided to drop. We should allow drop-outs as markets are for tough people with strong will or determination to succeed.

New place : I will be using SS18's "play-by-ear" place. Details will be sent to all of them and checking if all will continue my 'programme'.

please click here for the map and address : http://www.playbyear.com.my/


Meetings : The meeting will still NOT a stock-picking place. I am a person who believe in continuous learning. You cant trade by just knowing the terms, can you? NOPE ...in my opinions, you need months to even know the terms, you will take a few more MONTHS(or years) to learn to trade in proper manner. The meetings are meant for that --- to show them some BASIC step-by-step on how I used to do ... when I was still very raw. How do I set-up my trades and what do I do to continue to improve in my trades? Yes, until ... one doing it mechanically.

Cohort-4 : Yes, it is in place now. This new class will commence soon. My first module will be on 12th NOV for consecutive 5 Saturdays. Initially I planned for alternate Saturdays but I think I want to done with it as soon ... so that my cohort-4 will be joining my cohort-3. Yes, increasing the numbers so that each wont be paying too much. Too much for me means above RM80 each for a session. With average of RM70 per session(x 5 = RM350), then meetings to learn to analyse ... it certainly worth the amount you invested!! Yup, to me ... the first investment anyone should do is invest in our KNOWLEDGE.

I have 14 equiries so far. Well, for past experiences, some will last-minute chicken-out, some will give reasons for not attending etc etc. Hence, I think I might have only 10 attending. Then, some drop-out for some reasons etc etc ... may be 8 left. Adding to my cohort-3(current number is 9), I should have a good 16 of them.

I dont give excuses to many obstacles I am facing. Oh yes, I forgot to off my car's head-light and I could not start my car last night after class. I was supposed to shift yesterday but the lorry FFK-ed me. Sigh. I need to settle my car and shift in the morning, while thinking of my class with cohort-3 later!! Luckily no market-talk tonight, otherwise I will collapse!! Haha.

Anyway, I will still be around  ... being much more busier now with cohort-4 to handle. Yes, I will handle them 'differently' and through experiences, I could only improve in my teaching and sharing ... my task is just share of knowledge about trading and markets with many.

Market-talk(PG) : Please re-confirm your attendence by sending an e-mail to me with your handphone number. I have about 8 enquiries last week, so far only 3 confirming. Please do so and I will send you all the details. I am penang-lang la ... so, I do speak Penang Hokkien too. Haha

e-book : I will include my modules and thinking of video-shooting for the benefit of my readers who are NOT in Klang Valley and wanted to learn. I hope I could get that out by end of this year!! Arrghhh ... busy-busy-busy ...

Facebook : Yes, do add me and let me know you are my readers, I will add you in. Slowly, I will create a 'follower' pages and might think of 'twitter'. Hmm ... Jess and BL, you are both right, I think I do need a so-called smart-phone. My RM50 hand-phone couldnt work much now. Haha. Anyone sponsoring my handphone, please? haha.

It is almost 7am now ... I slept at 2am and woke up 5.30am just now. I need to sustain my energy level till 6pm!! I need power-root's tongkat Ali. PWRoot is never in my list?! Do they give dividends?

8.50 am : Waiting for the technician to jump-start my car.

KNOWLEDGE : Yesterday, I was with YWC and Jess ... err ... so embarassing that I DO NOT know how to check on my car battery!! I know nothing much about a car I am driving!! Serious ... and they were like ... what?? Yes, I have been driving for many years but never change a ANYTHING by myself. I will call auto-assist or anyone to help me. So, I have almost ZERO knowledge about cars!! At least I still know it needs petrol to move, not pouring water into my petrol tank!! Haha.

Then, I shared with them how focus I am ... when I do my Maths and teaching Maths, I only know in-out of MATHS!! Nothing much else. And when I was focusing in bowling for 10 years, nothing else matter ... it is learning to improve in bowling, man. I am even known as the crazy Maths-man and then  obsessed bowling-kaki. Today, hmm ... will I be branded as insane market-gambler? Hmm ... I am so focus that I dont watch other movies or shows ... only biz-news related. I do not read any other magz except market-related. I dont even read books ... only investment-trading books!! And I have been doing that for almost FOUR years in daily basis now!! Talking about INSANITY. Haha

Another 6-years to go .. then, I will be crazy about my teaching of trading!! If things moving that way, I will let it moves ... we shall see how far I could go or my failure(yet again) in my teaching? I am still very much in teaching Maths, but once my trading classes increases(number of responses), I will slowly shift to focus in my 'business' of teaching trading --- MY WAY.

I was having dinner with MS(thanks, boss ... you dont have to. AirAsia profits is just an excuse you used to treat me and family, I know. Dont be too good to me la ... thanks) ... when I told him more about my passion in teaching. Well, he knew that by now ... that to me, teaching the RIGHT way of trading --- from basic --- and cultivating good trading habits is my main concern now. Many of them already in markets for some time, some of them for YEARS and losing(lost) a lot of money. SAM, my most expereinced person in market will agree that most of them lose money due to lack of KNOWLEDGE and
Have a nice weekend.

OFF.

TEH

Friday, October 28, 2011

Bull running ... buy?

DOW up 300+ points ... and we are in first leg-up now ... and it is bull again. Ride on it, as I will like to see it.

Warrants : MBSB, Gamuda, WCT and Hibiscus.

Riding on :  JCY, Latexx and MEGB

I have cleared YTLLand yesterday. It is a bull-running ... so, anything you buy will give you good profits. Today, we shall see MORE coming in ... so, ride on it ... and ready to offload as I am back heavily into markets!! Hey, I am supposed to be busy and not in market!! So, greed in play ... and time to get out?

Moving into smaller ones ... hmm ... which call-warrants? I have a few to punt today ...

The strong current rebound brings a lot of cheers to many. As far as I am concern, I will cut-short losses ... and hope to keep riding the wave up ... I dont predict. Let the analysts do that. Let them upgrade KLCI to 1680 or so again. In trading, what I do learn is ... gain 6-8 of your trades, loss the 2-4 trades small. In the end of the month, you should be in positive region. With such rebounds, the gains could be substantial. So, keep the capitals ... and do not lose it back.

To me, profits still a bonus ... the lessons we are learning will come handy to many of my tratles. Yes, for past 2-3 months they do see me trade(only 3-4 losses so far) this strong rebound. Some I missed the boats totally, some I have traded a few times ... and now I am riding on some 'new' ones. SIME or Axiata wont give me much, right? But ... I will still not go for Harvest and such due to my disciplined principle.


KLCI at 1470 level now. We might see 1500 level again. Yeah ... good days ahead!!! RSI at 62 now, so ... watching at 70 again. Sigh ... it was at 20 when I started buying again ... today, the upside limited. Checking RSI 70+ to sell all again ... the party just began for some but it is ending for me. I want to join in the party, can I? Clearing more today ...

10.45 am : I queued too high, too greedy. Only Latexx and WCT-wb cleared(partial). Hmm ... will clear more later.

KLCI still up 10 points, HSI up 300 points.

MBSB-wa  and Gamuda-wd : Clearing too. Too good to be true. So, get out.

Hisbicus-wa : Punted into her, back to my cost price at 0.315. Failed to clear at 0.34-0.35 today.


Hard work : In markets, hard work itself is NOT enough. It is market-smartness that we need. That will comes with experiences. So, it still takes TIME after much of hard work for years ... persistant and diligent.

Genting : At 10.60 now ... broken the resistance 10.00 level. Bullish now ... in many stocks.

Shifting : I am shifting later!! Yes, today ... then at night still got trading class!! Talking about busy and tiring day ...

Market-talk(KL) : I have to postpone it again to next month as there still remain only 4 enquiries. I am sorry as I will want to have the technical-rebound talk but guess bull is running, no need to learn technical rebound? May be went market is diving again, we could have that talk? I will have to e-mail/sms the four who have shown interests. Sorry.

Market-talk(pg) : Next Sat ... 3pm to 6pm. I will drive up just to meet my readers there. The talk will be RM75 per person. Two parts of the talk : One about technical-rebound play and part-two will be creating a good stalk list. Those interested PLEASE SEND E-MAIL AGAIN(with mobile no). I will send the details. Thanks. Limited to 10 only(my place too small la).

http://www.playbyear.com.my/

I was talking to the owner of play-by-ear. He is a musician, an educator and a businessman. So, I do like him as a person and I do think I could learn a lot more about business from him. Yup, as my trading classes expand, I will be
TEH

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Bull Day

HSI up 100 points. DOW up another 160 points. How will KLCI re-act today? I will like to clear off more ... it has been short-trades, which up and down ...

9.30 am : KLCI up 5 points. I was busy at Chemistry Lab, playing with matches ... 'pipet' and 'buret'. Actually, I know the difference between the two but I do not know HOW and WHY both being used differently? It is like MA and MACD ... they looks alike. Haha.

ENG : Touched 1.43 ... emm ... luckily I exited at cost price? Hmm ... wait.

YTLLand : At 1.23, my cost price again ... hmm ... how? Why not moving liao?

Personal Money : I just bought a copy last night as the IPOs stories which I have been reading sound interesting to share for today's post!! Hehe

JCY : Riding on her too ... it is wild out there. Whoosshhh ....

10.45 am : KLCI up 9 points now.

YTLLand : Sold partial at 1.30 done.

Glove-stocks : Supermax and Latexx moving again ... Latexx above 1.70, the price I sold recenty. Grabbing back?

12.55 pm : WOW KLCI up 14+ points. BULL BULL is running ... who said it is overbought? Check it out ... we are in bull-rally!! HSI up 300+ points leh.

Duta : Why the embassy is diving? IOI being blamed? Wanna me show you the chart which doesnt lie?

Google-adsense : Finally my first cheque is in my a/c after 2-3 months? Haha ... yes, my first!! Now, if I am too busy that I did not even check on my status ... and I noticed that there is a huge dive in my passive income here. The lowest registered was USD0.24. ouch.

9.40 pm : DOW UP 250 points. HSI closed 620 points higher. We shall see MORE buyings in KLSE tmr. So, buying today is still good?

I m too tired to write about IPOs ... too tired as I am shifting tmr after work, then at night got trading class!! Arrghh ... I need Red-Bull

TEH

The knives : Netflix and MF Global

Weekly Chart


MF Global Holdings Ltd : Supported at 1.85 level last week, today dropping OFF the cliff. At 1.20 level now, touched new low at USD1.07 ... losing 40% in first hour of trade. Lost about 60% plus in a two days(yesterday and today).



NetFlix : After yesterday's dive, going at USD75 level now. That is a sharp knife for anyone who as holding to her ... and selling intensified yesterday due to so-so bad news around. Question remains if she will ever recover, business wise?

TEH

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Insane or Genius : Abnormality in me

Insane or Genius?

Depends on:

1) whom you are comparing with.

•the majority considers themselves normal, if you are not the majority or doing things differently from the majority, you are somewhat abnormal or insane. However if later the majority somehow realizes that your way of doing things is better follow the same, then you are a genius.
•you are the 20%, the rest are 80%.

2) the knowledge of your peers.

•when Galileo said that the world round, the people of his time thought he was crazy to sail beyond what they knew. They swear that if he sailed beyond that point, he would fall off the so-called 'cliff' of the earth. Now you try shouting 'the earth is flat' on the street today....
•you read a lot and put in lots of effort for this purpose. Knowledge gives you the confidence to venture into the risky paths. I guess that is what all professionals do.

3) the end result.

•the founder of Kentucky Fried Chicken was going around the country trying to get business partners to sell his fried chicken at the age of 80yrs old (if i am not mistaken). He failed many times for many years, still he did not give up. He could have died trying. If he failed, he would not be remembered. Or he would be known as the failure and crazy 80years old man going around selling fried chicken. Fortunately he succeeded. The rest is history...
•Your time will come. If this is a trade (not punting), then I am 90% sure you will be successful one day. Teh, investing trust in you is actually my first trade, not KNM.

4) the context ie the time and place the event takes place.

•a 'medium' shouting, chanting and jumping around at the temple is regarded as a holy sifu because he could communicate with the other world. Now if he performs this at the side of a busy highway, people will probably say, "Aiya so kesian, look at that crazy apek, talking to himself, just escape from the mental hospital, be careful when you drive past him in case he suddenly jump out, mati oohh..."

5) what you project to others and how others actually perceive you.

•two people standing at two different junctions with spoilt traffic lights doing the same thing, directing trafic. One wears a road traffic police uniform, the other wearing pajamas. I think this example is self explanatory.

Teh, so you see, genius or crazy is relative.

To me you are both.

What ever it is you are definitely not normal. But that is what makes you special.

Well, whatever I have said applies to me as well. For me to take heed of your teaching, i must be either crazy or i could be thinking that i have found an unpolished diamond.

If our venture is successful, then we will be on the way to a good life and able to provide meaningfully to our loved ones.

If we fail, you will be perceived as a con man (sorry to say) and I will be perceived as a stupid doctor who is crazy about getting rich and fell into the con man's trap.

So who we are is outcome dependent.

Crazy or genius? It doesn't matter for the time being...we just do what we are supposed to do according to how it must be done!

Profit is the bottom line.

All the best in our ventures!

Your guinea pig,

Julian.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------

I was trying to clear my e-mail ... 2000+ un-read and another 2000+ read. So, I was deleting in hubdreds!! Then, I saw few(9 to be exact) e-mail from Julian Lim(JL) ... my ex-friend and first turtle!! Yup, the above e-mail dated 29th March 2009. It still hurt(a little) to re-read such e-mail, re-calling my efforts trying to share my knowledge about markets with a TOTAL zero-knowledge novice.

Anyway, everything is a history ... I picked myself up(I promised myself to give up teaching trading, then!! Scrapping off my plans to teach and focus in my own blog&trade). Today, I do have 4 batches with me ... and the journey of my teaching has just began. I am taking it cautiously ... step at the time. Due to my INSANITY, I could easily offend ANYONE without me realising it. Yes, I am weird ... I am not your normal person. Julian knew me for 5 years, our family quite close and he knew how 'abnormal' I am. How can I be your normal Maths lecturer when I am so dedicated with my students results. Hey, they dont give me the 'best lecturer' award for nothing, you know. Reward or not, I will still be the same ... determine NOT to be normal Maths lecturer. From there, he could see how I learnt and how I motivate myself to teach!! Yes, I am much more motivated than normal-human. It comes from PASSION. Do you have passion in things you are doing? If you do, then you will understand how I took my kap-cai ... travelling 3 times per week from kepong to cheras ... rain or shine ... to play bowling!!

Then, you will understand that in the midst my my VERY busy schedule, I could travel all the way to Port Klang just for a RHB's market talk? I cant explain to anyone how weird I am ... and to equate me with your normal 'teacher' could be ... errmm ... never mind.

The above e-mail came after I sms-ed him a simple line : Do you see me as a genius or merely insane? He came to me ... seeing me as a genius ... telling my wife how fortunate he is being 'associate' with me and learning from me!! Hey, I was merely 1 year+ in market and also started to move in HKSE and using of charts!! I was as a novice as he was when it comes to HKSE and TA. You may want to read my posts during Aug2008 to Feb2009, before he willingly became my guinea-pig. Haha .. I could laugh it off now, after it took me a few months of pain of losing a good friend. Till today, he ignored me and rejected my apologies(WHY AM I APOLOGISING? My wife asked!!).

When mor eof my tratles starting to know me in person, slowly they will realise that I am INSANE. I am absurd, stupid, abnormal ... weird .. unique ... different ... blah blah blah .. which being thrown to me for 30 years!! Since I was young, I m seen as different and rebellious. Yup, How can we do something extra-ordinary being those normal human?

Profit is the bottom line? Wrong mentality to be in market, friend. I kept reminding him that. Yes, profits WAS VERY EASY to come then. DO YOU KNOW WHY? Check the date again ... it is APRIL 2009, the begin of BULL running ... it is those time when ANYTHING you bought shooting 10-30% easily. It was then ... GREED seeping in and arguements started. Yup ... he deemed me as STUPID and kept telling me ... we PROFIT first, Teh ... learn later, ok? DAMN .. I was so upset with his mentality and told him off. HOW ON EARTH are you going to learn when ALL YOU THINK of is profit?? Excuse me ... do you know market will dive back too?

Damn ... I was proven wrong as market went all the way up ... for two years till recently July 2011. Gosh ... he must be laughing that I was so wrong that market will be down.

CT : He is one of my tratle who have been in market ... gained HUGELY only to lose it back. He shared with me his experiences and that should be shared with ALL in markets. Today, he is wiser .. after 10 years+ in markets. Today, he look into protect his capitals.  Yup, today he came to me to learn to trade in proper manner. He also recommended his friend to join my cohort-4. Thanks.

So, what Julian missed out about market is ... it goes up, it will come down ... and it will go up again. If you dont know how to ride on it, you will lose more than you profitted. Serious issue ... MAJORITY going into markets .. thinking of profitting. Serious ... ARE YOU SURE? THINK.

Today .. I am telling my tratles NOT TO LOSE MONEY ... as by not losing your capitals, we could take the opportunities when the moment is here. Yes, I will share with them those moments so that we profit together. PROFIT doesnt come easily at current markets as volatilities at a HIGH level. Novices will not even understand volatilities. Experienced traders LIKE such volatilities .... yes, I see such moment as opportunities. Do you?

Book : I will consider to write a book ... one day. Instead of your normal title how to be millionaire, I will write how not to lose money and splash more cold water into your get-rich-quick dream, investinig in markets!!

I still have 6 years to go ... oh boy, I have used up almost 4 years to learn about markets. I have NOT venture into future-markets or forex. Yes, that will be after 2012. I am REALLY stupid, too slow for many to understand WHY I am doing such. I am too abnormal for your likings and yes, I am admiting ... I am INSANE.

Staying out of my way might be a good advice? Haha. Yup, it has been SO MANY of times I 'chased' away my blog readers ... but those who have stayed for more than 2 years must be really ... INSANE too? Some told me they read my blog everyday!! Wah lau ... for what, I really dont know. If I privatised it, say ... pay me RM100 per year also these readers willing to pay, u know. So ... they are my followers or fans. Should I create a 'fans' club too? Haha ... will do that using FACEBOOK --- a fan club and with my VIDEO shooting of my classes to share with many 'outstation' loyal readers.

Remnant(a blogger too ... thanks again, bro.) was the person whom I appreciated as he was there to pull a crying-me out of the pain of losing Julian as my turtle. Yup, I had a bad experience with him, and for that ... it is difficult for me to trust myself to teach others MY SYSTEM of trading. I am so different ... insanely different.

Thank God for my uniqueness. We are all different ... lets embrace our differences, ok?

TEH

Training Room Needed

Training Facilities And Services Include:

1.Fully Furnished And Equipped Training Room.

2. Layouts To Suit Your Specific Training Needs.

3. High-Speed Broadband Access.

4. Free Flow Drinking Water (Hot & Cold Water Dispenser).

5. Free Internet Surfing For Guests & Participants Through Available Desktop Located At Lounge Area.

6. 24 Hours Security Guard & Lifts Services.

7. Prayer / Surau Room For Muslims Provided By Building Management.

8. Catering For Lunch And Tea Breaks Available At Low Rates.

9. Dedicated Lounge Reception Area With Registration Counter For You To Register Guests, And Host Buffet / Tea Breaks / Refreshments.

9.Ample Of Parking Available, Public or Indoor Covered Car Park @ RM3 per entry

Ready Telephone Point For Your Terminal Credit Card Machine Should You Need To Collect Payments From Your Participants.

Venue : Sunway Mentari

Fees : RM178 for 4 hours.

Those who know of a place to rent(could be empty ... about 500sq ft) for me to convert it into a training center, please let me know. Appreciate that. It could be your house/place/office space to rent out.

Tentative : Found a place for my next month meeting place at SS18, Subang Jaya. Thanks to a reader of mine!! See ... there are still many good and kind readers helping me too!!

TEH

How a novice should start?

DOW down 100 points. GOLD up to 1700 level now. Crude oil at USD93. Yup, these strong rebounds... with USD vs MYR at 3.12(retracing).

MN : Sir, i really apperciate your way of teaching and your ethustatic to share your knowledge...i am still intersted to attend your class but please advice how should i prepared myself before attend the class..as u knw i just start to learn about trading stock and have zero knowledge about it.

it seems the classes for advance trader and i have long way to catch up with class...i thnk i should enter trading and get experience first before attend the class...i would apperciate much if sir could give me some opinion and advice ..... tq

TEH : Dear MN ... yes, you came for my first class ... it is for you to test it out. You will be joining my cohort-4 which will only start mid of next month. With you, I have 10 enquiries so far. Ok, I have my own way of teaching ... not so-called professional manner etc etc ... I dont even give a manual yet, not even provide u a drink!! Haha. But, yes ... I am a cikgu, I have passion in teaching(sharing of my knowledge) ... and will only teach what I KNOW and good in doing. I wont bull-shit with other indicators or systems I am NOT familiar with. One day, you will understand WHY 90% of them losing money. So, PLEASE DO NOT trade first, learn later.

You are NOT correct to say those coursemates of yours are advance traders!! They are not and as novice as you are. It is just that they have been in markets --- slowly you get to know them, they will be glad to share their experiences with you. That is HOW you should learn!! Not till you get burnt like many .. then only desperately paying few thousands searching for solutions with many stocks they get stucked with and blame the systems when they continue losing money!! Welcome to KLSE ...

Basic preparations : Internet ... get a broadband(it is cheap these days) so that you could be in touch with INTERNET and informations. Next, you need some basic BOOKS. You need a notebook/netbook or mobile devices which could download some CHARTS. Currently I am using ChartNexus's free 3-year chart.

Get The STAR or NST's business times. Read extensively either from newspaper or digital prints. ASK me for good websites if you dont know such. BUY the weekly The Edge and read extensively until one day, you will slowly make senses about things you read. ASK me how to start, I will show you how to read The Edge. I was reading The Edge, almost every pages in my first year!! Yes, without fail. Get the 'Share Investment' magazine from me and I teach you how to read those too(one day, I will have FA classes for those in cohort-1 to 4 who might be interested) ... and some counters to MONITOR. Yes, everything is in my plan .. to make a novice like you understand A LITTLE about markets. Yup, you are paying me a small amount to guide you. DO ASK, please. I might be strict and funny at times, but I am serious about YOUR learning. If you dont learn well, what am I there for?
Mentality : Get an OPEN-mind brain and work out your POSITIVE mentality. No one could go far with baggages of negative outlook about lives. LEARN is the key-word. Be enthusiatic about things you are going to do --- do it seriously. Treat trading as your business u are building now. You are building the FOUNDATION of knowledge. In my opinion, it is suicidal without KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCES.

To me, trading is a MENTAL test, not much about high IQ or more indicators or whatever .. it is COMMON SENSE and DISCIPLINE that many don't have. Dont worry, I was like you .. total ZERO knowledge about ANYTHING(serious la .. read my previous posts Haha) at all ... merely less than 4 years ago!! Believe it? Hmm ... I am a real person, u know. I can do it without much guidance, you can do it much better than me with my guidance. And you are only paying RM50-RM80(depending on attendence) per class, ok? Even after ONE YEAR with me, you have not paid thousands like many other courses!! Hmm ...

Nothing could replace EXPERIENCES. That is why I want you to join my Facebook's discussion into real trades or just for learning purposes. But, you need to attend my classes first, otherwise ... u will be lost. Yes, you will feel LOST ... of coz I understand that ... but trading or investing in stock-markets are REALLY a marathon!! Remember you told me that u understood?

TEH : Hardworking character is neede. It is a pre-requisite, actually. I do have some travelling from Kepong, Bt Caves, Rawang, Kajang ... just to learn, ya.

To gain some experiences, do open a trading account. DO NOT trade with real money yet(too raw) but trade with ''fake" accounts. If you are not sure, do ask me. Yes, I am avaiable in person for all of you to ASK. Just shoot. If I dont know or unsure, I will tell you I am not sure. It is OK to say ... we are not sure but we LEARN through ASKING and trying out. Hence, get a dummy-account, try it out.

To be conitnued .. happy Deepavali to you.

TEH

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Buying goreng stocks?


A : What happened to Redtone? All of the sudden, it went up to RM 0.37 and [mod] currently @ RM 0.30?

B : Fry (goreng) until hot hot then taking profit la....

C : Good to follow...Goreng kao kao...Major shareholders collecting $$$$ ????

D : it has been quiet for too long, the boss will take advantage of loss turn profit to fry until hot hot then taking profit. the boss face has recently appeared in the edgedaily, remember?

E : started wave C up trend after the wave B retracement from 0.37 down to 0.275...

Above are taken from RHBInvest's forum.



KBunai : A popular stock to goreng, right? Perhaps, targetting at 0.20 again?


Harvest : Feel lucky again today harvesting on her? Well, after shooting 280% from the base in days, it is only logical to take position today and wait for another huge push to 0.50? Then only we talk about sell? Goreng? What do you mean? It is in news and the gains from the current strong moves only prove that it is a strong counter to buy-n-hold, ok?


Hubline : Once in a while, being used to trap ikan-bilis. It is a bait. Buy in huge volumes at 0.085, wait for one day shoot up or queue everyday at 0.095. Well, 0.08 is the new low, so the risk is small?




TEH

Netflix : The boom ... and the bust?

Netflix Customer Loss Worse Than Forecast

By Cliff Edwards - Oct 25, 2011 7:33 AM GMT+0800

Netflix, the video-rental service, posted third-quarter customer losses that were worse than its September forecast and predicted more cancellations over a price hike. The shares plunged 27 percent.

Domestic suscribers fell to 23.8 million as of Sept. 30 from 24.6 million three months earlier, a bigger decline than the company projected, according to a website statement today. This quarter, U.S. customers will fall short of the 24.9 million analysts were predicting.

The outlook suggests Netflix has been unable to contain a subscriber revolt over a price increase and aborted plan to force subscribers into separate streaming and DVD services. The company now forecasts losses in 2012 because of costs to offer content in the U.K. and Ireland, and will delay further expansion until profitability is restored.

“Pausing is a good thing from an investor standpoint,” Chief Executive Officer Reed Hasting said in an interview. “We are going to pause and restore our global profitability.”

Netflix plunged 27 percent to $87 in extended trading after results were announced, putting its market-value loss at more than $10 billion since the stock made an all-time closing high of $298.73 on July 13, according to Bloomberg data.

Hastings, responding to questions, said he has no plans to step down and declined to comment on discussions with Netflix directors.

Subscriber Fallout

Investors are trying to gauge the extent of the fallout from the price increase and aborted plan to put DVD customers on a new service called Qwikster.

“To show even modest U.S. subscriber growth in the fourth quarter will require significant ramp-up in Netflix’s marketing spending,” said Paul T. Sweeney, director of research for Bloomberg Industries.

Hastings downplayed the likelihood of a big increase in marketing efforts.

“Our streaming marketing has been very effective in the past two years,” Hastings said. “We are going to work on improving the user interface, expanding to more platforms and delivering more content. There’s no grand gestures, there’s just a lot of steady and intense efforts.”

Domestic streaming subscriptions are forecast to decline this month, level off in November and rebound in December to end at 20 million to 21.5 million, Netflix said. DVD subscriptions will fall “sharply” to 10.3 million to 11.3 million customers.

Fourth-Quarter Outlook

Fourth-quarter profit will be $19 million to $37 million, or 36 cents to 70 cents a share, on revenue of as much as $875 million, the company said. Analysts were projecting profit of $1.10 a share on sales of $919 million, according to Bloomberg data. The company earned $47.1 million, or 87 cents a share, on sales of $595.9 million, a year earlier.

Domestic subscriber growth is particularly important because Netflix has used its wide lead over U.S. rivals to finance growth in its streaming business and expand overseas.

Earlier today, Netflix announced it will begin selling subscriptions in the U.K. and Ireland in 2012, putting it in competition with Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)’s LoveFilm.

Netflix had projected a loss of 600,000 users on Sept. 15 to end the third quarter at 24 million. The actual results were in line with the average loss of 780,000 customers seen by 10 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Domestic churn, a measure of subscriber turnover, jumped to 6.3 percent in the third quarter from 4.2 percent in the prior three months. The company’s total subscriber count, including service in Canada and Latin America, fell to 25.3 million from 25.6 million

For the third quarter, Netflix reported net income rose 65 percent to $62.5 million, or $1.16 a share. Analysts projected 95 cents, the average of 25 estimates. Sales rose 49 percent to $821.8 million, beating expectations of $812.8 million.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cliff Edwards in San Francisco at cedwards28@bloomberg.net

Taken from : Bloomberg


This is a weekly chart. Netflix has went up more than TEN TIMES your capital if you bought it 3 years ago. At the moment, it has dropped 60% from the peak due to the bad news. Hence, consolidation mode seen.

Question : Do you think they could overcome the damages DONE? For those who didnt get WHY I am checking on her, it is OK.

If you try to understand businesses and such, using technical charts to help you to check on the market psychology, you could benefit from your trades.

Netflix : Dropped to USD76 now ... it is 10.15 pm ... so, a DIVE of 35% in ONE HOUR.

Do you know why I posted this post this morning? Because I want to check if the PANIC selling is ... REAL?


Unusual Price Movement Encountered In (NASDAQ: NFLX)

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX): fell by 37.28% or $-44.3/share to $74.54. In the past year, the shares have traded as low as $107.63 and as high as $304.79. On average, 7945050 shares of NFLX exchange hands on a given day and today's volume is recorded at 4583525. The shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages which indicates that the shares have been experiencing downward momentum. The stock may bounce back to test the 200-day moving average. Thus, you may want to pay close attention for a move up to the $140.47 area but be careful because the stock may face selling pressure at this level.

Posted by Eric Savoie

TEH

Happy Deepavali



To all the readers who are celebrating the light festival, Happy Deepavali. To my Indian tratles, enjoy the festival day and mohon maaf from cikgu if I have offended any of you in my quest to teach. God Bless.

To my best friend, Siva and family ... my best wishes and I shall visit you all tmr. Thanks for being a friend of mine for 36 long years, buddy. Haha.

To my Indian friends and students(or ex), my wishes to all of you too.

Yes, I have many Indian friends and students. When I was with Stamford PJ for 10 years, majority of my colleagues and students I mixed with are Indians and getting to know their culture making me less Chinese but more becoming a Malaysian.

Thanks for such a nice feeling.

DOW up another 100 points. Many markets going into overbought again and yes, I will like to ride on it with intention to be out soon.

Penang Talk : It shall be next Sat as next Sat will be my only free Sat. I have not planned exactly where is it but a friend of mine is helping me to make the arrangements. Will inform further. Thanks.

ENG : Touched 1.50 yesterday, checking at 1.45 level next and consider when RSI below 15.




KSL : I noticed KSL with three huge volumes for the past three trading days!!Market was very bullish with many construction counters shooting higher ... but why KSL is lagging? A doji formed at 20MA is a good sign to buy? So, I see this counter with lower risk(technically, I did not check news related etc) entry and we shall wait to clear at 1.50.

Market talk(KL) : This Saturday night, I will like to have a 2.5 hours of market talk to those staying in Klang Valley. So far, I only have 4 enquiries!! Not so good response due to 'holiday' mood? It will be talking about TECHNICAL REBOUND, means ... if stocks diving lower and lower, what should we be looking for to catch its rebound(if any?) Hence, the short technical rebound WILL gain us substantial profits in the short period of time!! Isnt that what everybody want? Hmm ...

Stocks : MEGB, YTLLand and Jaks.

Stalk : Many ... such as KSL.

9.10 am : KLCI up 4 points. Jaks back to my cost price, the other two going for short-ride.

Bullishness


SOUTHEAST Asian stocks gained yesterday in thin trade as foreign buyers' appetite for risky assets rose.

"I think investors are really believing that a turnaround (in the eurozone crisis) is under way," said Singapore-based CIMB-GK Research's Regional Economist Song Seng Wun. "Also there hasn't been anything negative on the earning front."

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index closed 48.54 points, or 1.79 per cent, higher at 2,760.95. - Agencies

Taken from : The Edge

AUY' stock

Auntie-Uncle-Yuppy's stock : Perhaps I will use "AUY" as acronym. Then, I wont offend those aunties or uncles or those yuppies(in forums). I will make a definition of what I think of AUY's stocks which TECHNICAL ANALYSIS fail badly. It is also a 'gambling' or punting stocks which most of the time, without fundamentals to support the buyings or without logic of technical-analysis to trade. Mainly playing on so-called insider news or tips on rumours. Beware.

10.10 am : HSI up 100+ points. KLCI giving up early points, flat now .. causing my stocks back to my cost prices.

ENG : At 1.46 level now ... wait for RSI below 20 then?

11.15 am : KLCI is slightly in RED? Hey, DOW up 100+ points la.

I was chatting with PT ... well we are both free today as it is deepavali break for students while others having exams. He is totally in cash positions as he 'missed' the strong rebound and feels he do not want to chase. Good.

TIP = Think In Probability

Let us talk about CHANCES --- what are the chances that KLCI will go higher COMPARING to KLCI going lower at this point of time? If you want the answer, you draw those resistance lines for most of the KLCI-linked counters. Then, you will know that the rebound is over soon ... do you know probability? Does your brain work in such a LOGIC way that ... the risk is higher now?

4.45 pm : Busy with tuition classes. KLCI up 2 points. Tenaga still having the energy ...

Jaks : Cleared half at 0.60 done, at cost price.

Maths exams on Friday ... so, I will still have tuition classes tmr and Thu.

off.
TEH

Monday, October 24, 2011

My Trading Class

Updates

Cohort-1 : There will be our first tratle meeting NEXT Friday, combining with cohort-2. I will send an e-mail to ALL soon with details. Feedback appreciated.

Cohort-2 : Finishing Module-5 this Friday. PT, LK and YL to join this Friday. Zul coming?

Cohort 3 : Finishing module 4 + module 5 this Saturday. Well, next Saturday is off. Just done with it. SO, cohort-3 graduating from Level-1 this Sat too. I will send e-mail to confirm with all.

Cohort-4 : Will start mid of next month. I have 9 enquiries so-far. It will be in alternate Sat(with my cohort-3 meetings on). So, I should be finishing cohort-4 before 2012, and combine cohort-3 and 4 for my Saturday's tratles meeting. Hence, there will be no cohort-5 until next year June!!

Drop-outs : I do have one drop-out from cohort-1 after attending the first class. He feels too much of work for him to grasp. Too complicated. So, that is OK with me as at least he is honest to let me know. He is below 30, so still very young ... who knows, he might think the of the needs one day and look for me agian?

I have another drop-out after attended my first class and did not even bother to inform me. At times, I wish to have feedbacks, you see. For example, TEH ... I think your so-called trading-courses sucks and you are a con-man. I wont argue with you ... I will be glad to improve myself. After all, all these with me are my sort-of pioneer. One day, when I am very much organised with proper office and such, these are few people will benefit from my current classes. We shall see how they fair ... to see if my teaching is effective?!

Tratle-bring-turtle : Well, if my course is good, some of them might bring their friend to join!! After all, it is still cheap. Yup, my cohort-4 might be the last 'cheap' class and when I upgrade myself next June for my cohort-5 ...err ... it will still the CHEAPEST in town but definitely wont be at current rate. I might give discounts(LOL) to my current tratles who will be bringing in some of their friends or relatives to join in. I am thinking of that now.

Meetings : Well, once all the 5 modules are done, that is only the BEGINNING of learning to analyse some charts using BASIC indicators. Not to trade yet ... I told them in my first class that some need 3 years to be familiar and use them effective, but some could take up to 10 years to learn!! Arrghh ... a very discouraging word in the first class itself la. Haha ... splashing cold water now and then is GOOD.

Wake-up ... 90% of them in markets still lose money. You mean, you really want to be in market YET remain LAZY and asking around TIPS to buy in forums etc etc? WAKE UP ... if those things work, why cant we all  WHACKED all into that so-called stock(s)? Harvesting again? Hmm ...

Common sense : I was sharing with my tratles A LOT of common sense. We are all normal people with normal senses ... so, we used the term "COMMON sense". But, somehow ... in markets, we THROW away all our common sense and use our EMOTIONS. That is very unfortunate ... a logical person becoming illogical when winning or losing in markets. Ever wonder why?





TEH

Lose to Win

"Lose To Win"

You wake up in the morning
But the story is the same as before
You're looking in the mirror
But you just don't see yourself anymore
So give up what you know,
What you learned and what you're all about
As long as you don't give up on you
Then you can find your way out...

It don't take any money, don't take nothing but what you have inside
It doesn't matter if you fall down
It only counts if you try...

So pull the blinds and let the light shine through
Don't you think it's time for the light
To finally shine right on you...

So let them know what's underneath it all...
You won't fall
And baby you'll move mountains too
There is nothing really left for you to prove

‘Cause everybody knows you lose before you win
And if you're finally at the end of your rope
Well then you just begin
When the world feels like it's left you behind
Just get back up and you will find
Everybody knows in the end you got to lose just to win...

So pull the blinds and let the light shine through
Don't you think it's time for the light
To finally shine right on you...

So let them know what's underneath it all...
You won't fall
And baby you'll move mountains too
There is nothing really left for you to prove
The only thing left to do

‘Cause everybody knows you lose before you win
And if you're finally at the end of your rope
Well then you just begin
When the world feels like it's left you behind
Just get back up and you will find
Everybody knows in the end you got to lose just to win...
Everybody knows in the end you got to lose just to win...
You got to lose to win...

And when you down on the luck and in the end of your rope you begin
‘Cause everybody knows you lose before you win
And if you're finally at the end of your rope well then you just begin
Everybody knows you lose before you win
And if you're finally at the end of your rope well then you just begin





Best of Me by Daniel Powter (like this song a lot)



"Best Of Me"

I was made the wrong way
Won't you do me the right way
Where you gonna be tonight
'cause I won't stay too long

Maybe you're the light for me
When you talk to me it strikes me
Won't somebody help me
'cause I don't feel too strong

Was it something that I said
Was it something that I did
Or the combination of both that did me wrong

You know I'm hoping you'll sing along
Though it's not your favorite song
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left to say
You know that some of us spin again
When you do, you need a friend
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left for me
And I hate the thought of finally being erased
Baby that's the best of me

Everything's behind you
But the hope still stands beside you
Living in every moment
Have I wasted all your time

Was there something that I said
Was there something that I did
Or the combination I broke that did me have

You know I'm hoping you'll sing along
Though it's not your favorite song
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left to say
You know that some of us spin again
When you do, you need a friend
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left for me
And I hate the thought of finally being erased
Baby that's the best of me
Baby that's the best of me

You know I'm hoping you'll sing along
Though it's not your favorite song
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left to say
You know that some of us spin again
When you do, you need a friend
Don't wanna be there when there's nothing left for me
And I hate the thought of finally being erased
Baby that's the best of me

Bull Day : Time to buy or sell?

Deepavali week ... havent check on the shorten trading week. With only WCT-wb to play with, I m too busy and out of markets. I shown KLCI chart to my tratles and charts DO NOT lie. Some funds might pump up our few KLCI-index counters, overall market is still not good. While the rebound might still be there(US up 270 points!!), it is time to reduce exposure ... year-end rally?

WCT-wb : Cleared some at 0.42 done. Waiting to clear more at 0.425 and 0.43.

ENG : Cleared last Friday at cost price as it is stucked. Today, it is down below the current low of 1.52, which is NOT good. Thailand's flood is a high risk at the moment. If it really go below 1.30, alert me again.

BULLISH : KLCI at 1460 level now. Who are those saying KLCI will be bloew 1400 by year-end? Hmm ... if I post another survey TODAY, those answering today will tell you above 1500 or 1600 now. That is how volatile market is ... no need to predict much, follow the trend. Once reversal, ikut saja la. But due to the RISK of bear-rally and overbought situation, REDUCE exposure or short-term trading is advised.

Contrarian : When market up up and away, it is time to SELL. That is always in me ... doing the opposite of what others doing. I am a short-term contrarian ... haha ... follow the herds, get out ... and wait for it to dive dive lower ... when many of those sense-less young kakis in forum talking about lau-sai or some older ones(can I call auntie-uncles or not? It is due respect la, of age)

Anyway ... many have these in mind --- to profit from market!! I am not qualified to tell you what you should do to profit from markets, but I do think I know what it takes to control our fear-geed. Once the psychological part is taken care off, we could focus in our trading using some mechanical methods. And once knowledge increases, we could move around more comfortably.

YTLLand : Chasing her this morning ... haha ... buy buy buy ... later it shoots back to 1.80 level, how? Hmm ...

12.05 pm : Time for lunch ... HSI up 700 points. KLCI still up 20 points. ASX up almost 3% this morning.

MEGB : Master with skills today la .. up to 1.30 soon. Nice move ... buy.

Faber : Released her too early ... yup, got a right stock, too kiasu and took profits 10+% ... but that was in days wor? How to chase now?

UOADev : Grabbed at 1.20 was good ... but but ... cannot wait for 1.60 level meh? hai-ya .. wasted my dinners.

Yes, UOADev and Faber were a good trade for me but at times, I do take profits too early. Need to learn how to be greedy!! Haha.

Tratles's FB : Posted YTLLand, MEGB and Malton for discussion today. Yup, discussion means LEARNING to check on HOW I see charts and stocks.

Qinfa : At 1.35 now. Shared with my tratles last week why buying at 0.90 is a perfect level. Hehe.

Nope, no point sharing too much here, many prefer to know what stock to buy(stock-picking) rather than learning. Anything I am sharing with my tratles is for their LEARNING. Once they are with me for another 1 year, they will understand how my brain work ... and perhaps adapt some strategies to their OWN risk appetites. Besides, most of them reading my blog are those KLSE-kaki. Let us keep it to ourselves?

2.20 pm :  KLCI in green .. I am wearing green, of coz.

Puncak : Going above 1.30 today ... it is peaking? I am letting her go ...

4.30 pm : HSI up 750 points. KLCI still up 15 points. Saw Tenaga moving ...

WCT-wb : Showing weakness ... so, cleared.

MBSB-wa : Still strong ... good.

MEGB : Breached 1.30 level. Good.

YTLLand : At 1.24 vs 1.25 level.

TEH

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Asian Financial Crisis : 1997-1998

http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/wp026.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

1997 Asian financial crisis

From Wikipedia



The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of Asia beginning in July 1997, and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.

The crisis started in Thailand with the financial collapse of the Thai baht caused by the decision of the Thai government to float the baht, cutting its peg to the U.S. dollar, after exhaustive efforts to support it in the face of a severe financial overextension that was in part real estate driven. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt that made the country effectively bankrupt even before the collapse of its currency. As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia and Japan saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt.

Though there has been general agreement on the existence of a crisis and its consequences, what is less clear are the causes of the crisis, as well as its scope and resolution. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis. Hong Kong, Malaysia, Laos and the Philippines were also hurt by the slump. The People's Republic of China, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam were less affected, although all suffered from a loss of demand and confidence throughout the region.

Foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167% in the four large ASEAN economies in 1993–96, then shot up beyond 180% during the worst of the crisis. In South Korea, the ratios rose from 13 to 21% and then as high as 40%, while the other northern newly industrialized countries fared much better. Only in Thailand and South Korea did debt service-to-exports ratios rise.

Although most of the governments of Asia had seemingly sound fiscal policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in to initiate a $40 billion program to stabilize the currencies of South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, economies particularly hard hit by the crisis. The efforts to stem a global economic crisis did little to stabilize the domestic situation in Indonesia, however. After 30 years in power, President Suharto was forced to step down on 21 May 1998 in the wake of widespread rioting that followed sharp price increases caused by a drastic devaluation of the rupiah. The effects of the crisis lingered through 1998. In 1998 the Philippines growth dropped to virtually zero. Only Singapore and Taiwan proved relatively insulated from the shock, but both suffered serious hits in passing, the former more so due to its size and geographical location between Malaysia and Indonesia. By 1999, however, analysts saw signs that the economies of Asia were beginning to recover


asian contagion 1997



Be prepared always. Thousands of those in KLSE gone broke and many STILL holding to their paper-loss, many de-listed and will never recover to even breakeven. These are those who do not know FA or TA and pure-ignorants about markets. Yup, in 2008 crash, it was NOT as severe as in 1997-1998. Hence, from the RISK point of views, many are in markets to PROFIT, and that is VERY risky.

Will we see another market crash ... KLCI going below 1,000 level again? Let us keep this posting and we shall check more in 2012 --- noted as a doom-day for our world.

This is global financial crisis, not confine to EURO. The US-crisis is not solved at all --- QE3 or QE4 --- so, it is not totally baseless when Peter Schiff pointing out another crash(double dip) is very possible. With that, NO MARKETS will be spared. Dont believe some NAIVE ministers stating that we are resilent. KLSE will come down too ...

I do not dream of such crash, I am a trader ... I am following these development in daily basis --- to make a decision on my trades. I will want to keep my mind open, up or down --- so, it is futile to argue with bull-bear opinions.

South East Asian Crisis 1997



TEH

Profitunity(Chaos) Trading System

http://profitunity.com/

e-mail 1 by Shim

Hi Teh

your posts are very educational, what i know about you is that you are a very few intelligent people who understands the markets and willing to share knowledge and teach people about technical analysis. I dont have much respect to those local so called qualified analysts who talk about technical analysis in local papers.

have you ever heard of bill williams trading system ? many softwares like metastock,tradestation,metatrader4 have included his indicators, i found out to be very impressive.maybe you can look into it good or bad maybe we can share some trading idea.

Hi Shim

I am still checking on the system by Bill Williams and have no comment yet. I need at least ONE YEAR or so to tell the difference of his systems and the validity to be used in our 'small' manipulated KLSE market. At times, some systems could be good for US-market(many from westerners) may not work well in our illiquid market. I believe u know what I mean. I will buy the book as soonest and will do the readings in DEC when I have two weeks break.

Thanks for sharing and allow me to share it with my other readers. Yes, as usual, if I have good information(to learn and educate), I will share it here with others. Perhaps there are someone out there successfully trading using his system or any other system MIGHT not be selfish to share with others?

e-mail 2 :
TEH

Stock Watch


AirAsia : At 3.80 level, bearish signals in candle-stick and MACD. An extreme of overbought case, SELL signals are there to take profits. Whoever JUMPED in on Friday showing they know nothing much about markets and technical-chart analysis. We dont buy into a stock which flying 30-40% in such a quick manner, unless of coz for shor-punts. So, is the music finally over for AirAsia? Watch.

Genting : Resisted at RM10, technically a sell on 18th Oct. It was discussed with my cohort-3 last Sat as I was showing them 'resistance', using Genting as example. Yesterday, I shown them MACD and Stochastic and hope they could interpret it now?

Abbott And Costello 13 X 7 is 28



Good morning ... it is almost 5 am now. I have been too busy for the whole week. It is really hectic days ahead for me.

Projector : On Friday and yesterday, I could use a projector ... finally. Yes, it is much more effective now. Yes, I have collected from my tratles some fees, kept that and re-invested into their LEARNING. Next to come will be internet to show them more of website for the learning purposes and will be sharing much more during our tratle's meetings. Yup, I am such a dedicated cikgu. Haha.

Anyway, making sure everyone to LEARN could be a big challenge. I have a batch of adults age ranging from 20 to 60. So, I am going to use the young ones to help my older ones. The young ones are better in dealing with computers and softwares. It is a matter of getting used to the charts and indicators --- so, the younger ones will learn in a faster pace. What I do admire the older ones is the spirit to LEARN. Yup, age is not a barrier for us to learn. We have many more youngsters NOT learning anything at all in trading, yet in forums yak-ing around about stocks!! Hmm ... such bad habits will bite them, for sure.

Cohort-4 : I am planning for next batch as I am going to finish my cohort-2 and cohort-3 soon. I have 6 enquiries so far ... so, I shall see if these are serious readers(of mine) who have what it takes to learn. If they dont, they will give excuses and quit anyway. Yup, winners dont quit, quitters wont win. My quotation for them in my first class. I am planning middle of next month.

Penang market- talk : It shall be on next-next Sat, 5th Nov. No promise as I am very busy yet. That is tentative for 6 of them so far showing some interests. I will bring my projector. Hehe.


TEH

Saturday, October 22, 2011

My Trading Class

DOW up 270 points ... I have cleared most of my holdings. Bought WCT-wb at 0.40 today. When market keep moving higher, I am getting 'smaller' ... from SIME to WCT-wb now. If this trade also fail, I am out of market. Otherwise, let it runs ...

I am ok .. no worry. I just had 3 hours of class with my cohort-2, module 4. Yes, they will graduate next week. Next week no classes for my cohort-1, but those free can dropby to yam-char to celebrate these cohort-2 of graduating!! Haha ... ok ok ... may be I should print a certificate of attendence? Haha.

It is late ... I am tired. I just came back from mamak teh-tarik with 2 of my tratles -- CT and SAM. One with 10-years of experience and another with 20-years of experiences in KLSE!! Wow ... what I am glad is that they like my classes and told me they learnt a lot from it. GOOD. That motivates me ...!!

It is easier to speak with someone with 20-years in KLSE and working in the risk-reward line!! Yup, easier to discuss on WHY so many of them losing money ... and MANY MORE will continue to lose MORE money next week, next month ... next year!!

Without knowledge, FA + TA ... chances that you will LOSE.

If you are interested, e-mail me to join my cohort-4 next month. I all ask SAM to promote my classes for me. I belanja you makan la, SAM. Hehe

NIght

7.05 am : DOW UP 275 points!! We are in the BULL market ... unfortunately, I have cleared most of my stocks!! Arrghhh ... hopefully my WCT-wb could fly further ... hope-analysis applied. Hehe.

It is SAT ... a busy whole day for me. Tuition and Trading classes. So, it will be another tiring day ...



Time to get ready and off.




12.10 pm : Rushing and rushing again.

Market Talk : There will be a market talk, tentatively NEXT SATURDAY(morning or night?) regarding short-technical rebound play. Yes, it is OPEN to anyone who is interested PLUS my tratles. It is a strategy where you see such strong rebound and learn how to catch short rebound in a SAFE manner. Reducing your RISK by increasing your knowledge.

7.05 pm : Done with my cohort-3. Quite disappointed as some absent and my remianing 6 of them have to pay 'hefty' fees for their absent. CAN I CHARGE THOSE didnt come and didnt inform me?

Tired ... as I have been out the whole day. Need a good dinner and rest.

TEH

Friday, October 21, 2011

Accidents do happen : Be prepared

I met with minor motor accident just half an hour ago --- I am physically OK but my bike has some wounds. It was very fast ... another bike came our from no where, I braked and knocked into him ... it was packed jam and on the left side, a huge lorry there. I knocked my head to the body of the lorry(luckily for the helmet. I just feel some pening). He sped off instead of helping me to get up my feet. Another biker helped me ... and was scolding him. Haha ... I was like ... am I ok? Just minor injury on my left-leg .. but I could still walk, joke around. So, I am OK ... haha.

Now, after the incident, I was riding with more caution on the way to office ... and thinking of trading!! You see, motorbike is seen as a VERY risky vehicle as we are 'exposed'. I have been warned since the first time I tried my first bike 20 years ago!! It is not a choice in KL ... I need to travel here and there to giving tuition back then. I travelled from Kepong to Cheras Mall just for bowling!! So, I was averaging 70km per day back then!!So the risk is VERY high. Accidents bound to happen ... and it did happened 3 times in KL, 3 times back in KK. Today's is considered too minor(cut-loss short).

Now, realising that markets is risky, what should we do? Recognising that driving is dangerous, what should you do? We get licenses for driving, why are we not getting licenses to TRADE or INVEST? Funny world ... oh, driving involve your life and others!! Ok ... financial losses could be recovered unless the person lost so much, went into depression and suicidal mode. Fine.

So, if you do not have experience AT ALL in driving, you will choose to drive a car, a simple car to operate and only driving in SLOW pace(longer time frame) around the small area you are familiar with, right?

Same here ... isn't it logical you go for big-blue chips if you are NOVICES, new to markets? And you drive it slow ... with longer time frame? LOGICAL to you?

After a few times of accidents, with one serious one ... I have learnt to be very careful and I even know how to fall so that my injuries are minimal!! Serious. Riding a bike is dangerous to many but as I have been riding for 20+ years, I do feel OK to ride. Due to AGE, I will only ride bike to office when it is necessary(to avoid the jam ... saving my time and petrol).

Think about it ... driving vs trading. It is SO interesting!! Next time you want to take too high of risk in trading, THINK of driving. Do you know what you are doing driving a Posche at 140km/hr during rainy days?

Note : Rainy days = BEAR market and 140km/hr = fast-trades.

Market-chat : The technical-rebound play talk will NOT be on this Sat. So far only 4 enquiries and I will postpone it to next SAT night if I have more than 5. Those still interested, please e-mail me for further details. Thanks.

My trading classes : Updates

Cohort-1 : Done with them all the basic 5 modules. For LK and PT who missed, do join next Friday. No tratle's meeting for cohort-1 just yet till cohort-2 and these two young tratles done too.

Cohort-2 : Module 4 today. Will do module 5 next Friday(28th Oct) instead of next-next-Friday. Hope to get it done by then.

Tratles meeting : Our first meeting will be next-next Friday(4th Nov) combining cohort-1 and cohort-2. I might get a new place by then to cater for all(some might drop-out or graduated). Cohort-1 and cohort-2 are for my Friday nights slot. Once they are combined, I could start to think of my cohort-4.

Cohort 3 : Doing their module 3 this coming Saturday. Hence, on 5th Nov, they will be finishing their module 5.

What is next?

Cohort-4 : There are about 6 enquiries or so. I am too busy to reply and keep track. I will only think of it MIDDLE of next month when I have done all my shiftings and also done with my three cohorts. So, everything in KIV.



Lyric from : Not Afraid by Eminem

Yeah, it's been a ride
I guess I had to, go to that place, to get to this one
Now some of you, might still be in that place
If you're trying to get out, just follow me
I'll get you there

I'm not afraid (I'm not afraid)
To take a stand (to take a stand)
Everybody (everybody)
Come take my hand (come take my hand)
We'll walk this road together, through the storm
Whatever weather, cold or warm
Just lettin you know that, you're not alone
Holla if you feel like you've been down the same road (same road)

...

And I just can't keep living this way
So starting today, I'm breaking out of this cage
I'm standing up, I'ma face my demons
I'm manning up, I'ma hold my ground
I've had enough, now I'm so fed up
Time to put my life back together right now! (now)

It was my decision to get clean, I did it for me
...

Comment 1 : correct me if i am wrong to say "in stock marke,follow the crowd is always correct if you follow them infront but not behind"

TEH : Yup, be the leader, use leading indicators ... take risk(with knowledge + experience to reduce your risk). Majority of us are followers. Ask a class of 30 ... anyone volunteer to come out to produce your work to the class? We might have only one(if lucky). Others will be questioning WHY ME? Never we ask .. WHY NOT ME?

Comment 2 : Do you agree with this statistic?

Out of all the trader / investor, ~10% are full timers and ~90% are part timers.1% of 10% are loser and 1% of 90% are winner. Therefore is correct to say ~90% of people that trade / invest loss money and ~10% make profit. Conclusion the full timers always have the advantages. Really like to hear your opinion on this comment. Thanks

TEH : Majority of us are NOT full-time traders. We are retailers ... many are there for SHORT punts, for GAMBLING purposes, for FUN chatting about stocks in forums etc etc. So, we do not have many investors(they are the one profitting the most in markets and most of them doing extremely well due to their discipline). Yup, majority ... 90% of them WILL lose in long-run. Believe me, these KLSE-kaki wont last. And some of them gained well initially, even thought they are GOOD enough go full-time. Look ... trading is a serious business. You cant trade full-time with STRESS of money. With lack of knowledge and experience, trading full-time is not logical. Yup, of coz full-timers will have the so-called edge BUT remember, nothing could replace experience and right MINDSET. Majority of Malaysians or anyone WILL FAIL here.


Commnet 3 : Glad to know that you are ok. Riding motorbike is as risky as trading….

TEH : Thanks. I am ok. Slight sprain in my left ankle.

I am a newbie and active following all the market kaki blogs, I try to learn the FA, TA, CA, NA, HA, RA TNA, etc….. to draw some conclusion on how to make profit from the market. This is every investor / trader main OBJECTIVE. Right? To be a successful profit maker, I think that person must able to trader full time with passion and able to seize opportunities from speculative, moving, news in play and herd mentality stocks and ride the trend and able to cut loss if the trade did not go as planned.

TEH : DIS-agree. We dont go to market to profit at initial stage. We prepare ourselves with knowledge, not to lose too much of our capitals ... accumulating knowledge + experience while learning some systems which might work for us and improve on it. SO BEING NORMAL KLSE-kaki, you will NOT learn much. You must me VERY new to market, so .. I am just being HONEST to you. Markets do not work the way MAJORITY thinks. They are too naive and too ... UN-realistic. Majority of those in forums etc etc will be wipe-out, 40% of them will NEVER be in markets anymore ... and 80%(of the 40%) will lose huge amount of money, stucked with their lousy portfolios etc etc. Dont take my words for it, get involve in a smarter way, you might lose smaller. Cut-loss? Hmm ... easier said than done. Good luck

All are mentality strategies and nothing really needs FA, TA, CA, HA…… all the As. Bring me back to the right path if I am wrong. Just a coincidence to pick your blog to relay my opinion. Anyway, like your blog very much and your die hard fan la.

TEH : Thanks for liking my blog(for what?). My blog is for sharing purposes of COLD_water splashing on many so NAIVE look into markets. They dont have in them to learn ... dont worry, once they lose lots of money, they will realise market is NOT FOR THEM. Unlessac DRASTIC change in the MENTALITY ... they might have a chance to survive and learn a little? I doubt that. If you get to know your friends in KLSE or markets, share with them my blog --- so that I could splash more cold water to their GET RICH QUICK with stock market metality. ASK THEM to check with MAJORITY in markets ... dont worry, 8 out of them lost money or losing money. If they said they GAINED, they must be new to markets. If they are in markets for 10 years and GAIN A LOT,  I respect that and wont mind paying good-money to learn from them. I am serious.

Not my purpose to condemn or belittle anyone, anyway I am not qualify to do that, just sharing and hope to learn from feedback.

TEH : I do not condemn others, I am just stating some facts which many may NOT want to face. Once you could face the touchness in markets, you might prevail.

9.10 am : KLCI up 3 points.

Latexx : Sold half at 1.70 done.

WCT : It is still moving ... nice. Grabbed WCT-wb.

MBSB-wa : Yes, riding in such a good trend with a warrant is much 'safer' than to ride on Ingens, for example. I shown my wife the forum(NOISES) that people talking about punting into INGENS last night, with 100+ comments on it. Believe that how st**id our KLSE-kaki could be? Plain nuisance!!

Redtone : In red ... down 7% today, profit-taking and time to jump in, buy in volumes and HOPE it goreng up further for another 25% profits? These are discussed in forums too. Amazing? GREEDY? Err ... teach me and tell me the TRUTH, how many percent of those in KLSE profitting from markets? Tell me .. how many percentage of these in forums buying Ingens or DVM going to be profit from markets? Do tell me again ... those without experience or knowledge, we will get caught in them right? And THEY ARE THE BIGGEST LOSERS??

Teach me ... WHY so many still holding to KARAMbunai, Ramunia, DVM, Tricubes, Iris, Saag ... and such ... many more holding to MANY call-warrants which is nearing ZERO in values? FACE IT ... or else I am going to splash cold water to your FORUMS and get-rich-quick mentality again. Yeah right ... I am so envious of many profitting and getting so rich punting into Tejari or Harvest? Good luck ... I believe you are cultivating BAD punting habits and MAJORITY of them will ... eventually lose ALL their profits + much more. Ego and greed clouding these punters. If you really know what you are doing, good luck ... from me.

4.45 pm : Just done with my class ... today is another selling spree for me.

IJM : What the ... who is selling?

KLK : What the f*ck is that? RM15.30?? Serious? I was busy ... could randomly queued at RM16 or not?

UOADev : D0wn 11 cents now ... game over? Someone greedy getting stuck? Buy more?

Latexx : In red now? Phew ... one night stand?

Harvest : Dropped 15% today ... anyone caught GREEDY at the top? Average down as it will shoot another 50% from here? Hmm ... wait, I go to forums and ask those sifus ... they have those nice Hokkien-slang in their conversations. Either lau-sai or si-si ... mati. Dived.

Rules to my tratles

1. Do not lose money

HOW?

1.

2.

3.

Fill in the blanks and then add in more as you trade and learn. Writing it DOWN is to face REALITY about losing money!! FACE it .. let go of ego as we are dealing with EMOTIONS here. Take it and move on. Difficult at first ... take time to recover the emotions in play ... but we could NOT move on with so much baggages draggin you ...


TEH