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Friday, September 30, 2011

Teaching Trading

DOW up 140 points ... hmm ... bull is running? In days, if KLCI continues to go higher, MANY will start to think that we are back in a bull-run and it might last another 2-3 years. WOW ... these short term noises are un-neccesary. What we need to think is a mid to long term views. Yes, as KLCI oversold, technical rebound is expected but will it last? KLCI is looking at global markets while local funds is supporting our 'small' market. Nothing much to write ... just ride on it for a while but reminding ourselves that we are still in a bear-raly? Dont dream of recession ... just take actions and see which direction we could benefit from - bull or bear.

He was right to say GS dont care if US or global economies recover. You see, as trader ... emotionless trader, we shouldnt care much. I do feel 'sad' when many ignorant aunties-uncles(novice yuppies too) losing lots of money. SERIOUS. We do feel for them ... I was one of them too, the difference perhaps I know I am learning and going to do better and improve myself!! As I went thru such phases, I will want to share my experiences(in learning and improving) with my readers here. Well, blogs are just words ... like you read any books or from the internet. It is DRY ... it is flat. It is between you and the articles you are reading. And if you are totally new in markets(or worst still, you are a science-background like me) ... you will be LOST.

LOST ... that is the feeling I went through. You read about 'carry-trade', you will be thinking how to carry the trade? Is it something to do with carrying the items you bought using a bakul/basket? Then, they tell you that USD index ... it is an index? What is index? And what do you mean by a basket of currencies? What the basket again? Currrencies as at MYR or SGD? Then ... they will list the top few currencies in the world? You wonder why MYR is not there? And so on .... confuse as you read further ... try to recall the first time you reading these terms and learning to relate that to OUR stock market or our ONE stock, say ... Tenaga? USD index down will benefit Tenaga? Huh? Is it? Then ... how will it affect Tenaga's stock prices? You mean, USD up up today, no wonder Tenaga stock going down? etc etc ...

You will get what I mean ... if you are in initial stage. That is my challenge .. to teach these 'novices' how to trade ... and only teaching them some BASIC terms used in technical analysis. I did not even combine those indicators and placing more indicators(suc as economics indicators) into play. Just a basic ... Price-Volume, MA, RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Support and Resistance, Candle-sticks ... trends, signals, divergence and such. Slowly ... I will talkl about FEAR and GREED, supply-demand, risk-reward ... which all these I feel their importance in trading or investing. Yes, I did not speak much about EPS or factors affecting the sector(s) and how these correlate to our individual stock(s)!!

All these, when apply in times ... and with experiences growing ... will grow the confidence in traders or investors. Do you really understand what it takes to be in markets? Sure?

10.55 am : Busy busy ... KLCI up 10 points.

Dialog : Up at 2.26 now ... a student of mine sms-ed me before market opening, stating that he read few bloggers(including S.Dali) wrote about her. I replied ... BUY. So, I bought at the opening at 2.18-2.19 and went off for classes. That is trader ... chances of it going higher is higher than the chances it is diving. Going lower .. you lose a little if you know how to cut-loss, but the profits ... you could let it run.

Yes, if I have larger capitals and more bullets, I will shoot more, right? You cant have SIME, Axiata, Maybank ... then want to buy PChem, MHB ... and then shoot IJM, Mudajaya, Gamuda ... then ... Sunway-wa, SPSetia-wb, WCT-wb ... right? Be realistic. What CS said there isnt logical to me and also shown he is either not a trader/investor OR he just want to confuse many novice readers around!!

Common-sense is very important to me as when it comes to emotional market, common sense is always thrown out of the window!! Amazing, right?

Teach me, please ... if I didnt clear my SIME and MayBank(for profits), how am I going to ride on MudaJaya today? Do you know why the change of the game plan? Are you telling me you KNOW what stock WILL shoot up in coming days? Unless u r working inside PNB-SP investment or those related parties, dont tell me that you know it will shoot to RM3.90? Hey, buying today is silly la ... traders TRADE. My two turtles bought SPSetia at RM3.20 level ... one lost as cut off earlier(but he learnt the lesson and shared with us. That is guts, man. Good.) and another sold yesterday for profits!! What ... waiting for SP to go RM4.50? teach me, please ...

Today, I have few around me ... through e-mail and sms, they will discuss with me what stocks they are looking. I m glad to help but .... I m exposing myself to RISK again. Yup, I have learnt that RISK is more important than profits. As Alpha Chart said "Think RISK before Profit". He is very right in this sense and I adopted that mentality in my tradings. That explain why I WONT go for aunties-uncles stocks. I dont. I am going to teach people to trade(with FA attached) ... not to lose money is no1 rule. Then, take profits as a bonus for being a little knowledgable than most of the rest in markets --- the herds and majority.

Blaming others and get frustrated will not take you anywhere further. Unless you really believe in fung-shui or lucky star(zodiac) ... and believe whatever date we should buy whatever stocks ... gosh ... you stock-pick according to that method. They called it 'astrological analysis = AA" haha ... I was laughing when I read that.

Yes, dont blame your un-lucky star. At times, we are in LUCK side(I agreed) and at times, we might not be so lucky. It has nothing to do much with that, carry-on ... more importantly, WHAT ACTIONS should you take when you are lucky or unlucky? That makes the differences between a good trader and just a person who rely on luck?

Do you think it is merely LUCK trying to buy a stock? Be realistic and logical again. It takes more than the 50-50 chances ... because, once in market, our luck will be running LOW. Ever ask WHY? If not, can I ask WHY NOT?

11.30 am : KLCI giving away the optimism ... FLAT not as HSI losing 320 points. Want to know what is up 25% today in HKSE?

CWP : Yes, CWP(0182.hk). I was sharing with BL that day about her as he was reading y previous posts!! CWP came down from HKD1 to HKD 0.30 level recently. And I told him I am very interested ... heck, NO ACTION, no gain ... at HKD0.40 now.

Challenge : I am thrown with a challenge ... to gain 10% in a year the capitals. Yes, ROI of 10%. It will be transparent etc etc ... nope, I wont write it here again ... this is just an uncle-blog. Haha ... so, I am taking up the challenge. We shall check by end of next year. Nope, I do not take it easy and in fact, I will draw up the whole plan for my given funds ... to attain my 10% target. If the fund is RM10k, then I need to profit RM1k by end of next year(minus those fess, of coz).

CS : Are you glad you got my attention? Haha ... look into a mirror. What do u see? Feel inside your heart, how do you feel? Hmm ... close your eyes and pray. Where are you heading to? Once you learn such, yes ... you might grow-up.

I am still a novice, in fact ... another 3 years, I will still say I am a novice. I define novice as those LESS THAN 10 years in market. When no of years should not be the main issue(as I knew many having more than 10 years BUT do not have much knowledge!! They are novices to me too), it is the amount of years of experiences trading markets with POSITIVE outlook. Do you have that? From the way you speak, you are a novice to me too. Welcome to our novice world.

I am going to ignore you from here on as speaking to you will not be constructive. Readers could see you are sour and something bugging you INSIDE that your cant face it to yourself. I do believe you are JL. Are you still sore when I taught you invest-trade for FREE? I even walked to your SMC(hopital in KK,Sabah) to teach you, ok? By the way, you still owe me RM8k. I tried to add you in your facebook but you rejected me, remember? Hey doc ... you are 30+ now. Grow-up.

Hmm ... you do sound like JL but you may not. You might be just another reader bought into a stock and lost money in market. Sorry for your loses. I am a novice, since when I said I am a sifu or asking anyone to BUY the stocks written here?

Whoever you may be ... I will ignore you. Bye CS.

p/s : CS can also be chee-sin. Hmm ...

3.10 pm : I had two 'free' extra class for my students this Friday and next Friday. I m talking about my further Maths students. They will be sitting for exams next month!! I want them to score. Management wont look into that ... what do I get? Many thank-you from my appreciative students. I gave them an overall of what I have taught them for past 1.5 years. Yup ... it will be good to make 'final' notes for them.

HSI losing 400 points. Yes, tonight I do have a trading-talk. Some of them started to bring a friend to tag along. Hmm ... there will be 3 new faces today itself. Hope wont be too crowded!!

Next Friday class will be as usual for all my cohort-2(plus 4 from cohort-1 which not making it today ... BL, PL, PT and EK).

Going back to nap as I think tonight will be another long night ... and my Saturday starts at 8am to 3pm.

4.20 pm : Interesting ... KLCI down 10 points. Very volatile and sentiments change of sudden?

Dialog : Someone bought 2.30-2.32 level ... hmm ... it is 2.24 now. Ok, top-up.

KLCI is flat today.




VIX : I m going to share in my class tonight.

off
TEH

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Alessio Rastani : I dreamt of recession

BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not a trader'
He's become the face of the global debt crisis and an internet sensation. The self-styled City trader who stripped away the jargon and bluster of the financial world and summed up our woes in just three minutes. "I go to bed every night dreaming of another recession," Alessio Rastani explained in a BBC interview. "It's an opportunity."

The soundbites won Mr Rastani instant fame. He became a viral hit and was trending on Twitter. BBC business editor Robert Peston was among the fans. "A must watch if you want to understand the euro crisis and how markets work," he told his army of 82,000 followers on Twitter on Tuesday.

The interview contained such gems as "Governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world [and] Goldman Sachs does not care about the rescue package."

Alessio Rastani Tells The Truth! BBC



Does Goldman Sachs rule the world?



Alessio Rastani on the BBC World Service radio

Can investing and trading be taught?

Today is THU ... an extreme busy day for me with 5 hours of classes, then tuition and some paper-work to rush out. So, I m cleared of my harimau-bank and wont do any trading for weeks to come!! Unless clear opportunities(currently in HKSE), nothing to do ... I want to clear my back-log of paperworks, e-mail to reply, re-reading some of my previous posts related HKSE ... and yes, I m also busy shopping(Jusco's member yesterday ... crazy buying!!) as I have to start getting things ready for my new place next month!! Too busy too with classes still on ... and my trading class too.

Cohort-3 : Tentatively, I m planning on 8th of Oct, Saturday around 2pm to 4.30pm. It will be continous for 5 Saturdays!! At the moment, there are 6 enquiries. So, I shall wait for more enquiries to come and confirmation!! Yes, I hope this is the 'last' cohort for the year. I want to focus in my turtle-meetings and such.

For a laugh about facebook, I was reading my Dec 2009 post about ZhongWang and re-discovered this piece of classic. Haha. He speaks my mind many of times.

facebook : We are also creating a facebook-page.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/12/facebook-makes-me-mad-sometimes.html

Sal.Dali wrote a very good post that day about investing!!

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2011/01/why-investing-is-so-difficult.html

And yes, I will re-wind these concepts and use them in my tmr's talk ... when I need to speak about Fear and Greed. Otherwise, how do you explain what MAJORITY is trying to do in stock-markets? It doesnt make sense .. it could be in Malaysia, Hong Kong or any part of the world. Hence, we need to analyse the behaviour of people ... herd mentality and such. Will speak about it tmr.

I will write about my opinions on investing-trading ... can we really teach someone these 'subjects' as they are subjective?

Group : Yes, I am forming a group - for learning, support and sharing purposes. The purposes are to learn from each other experiences, providing each other the supports needed and to share resources(knowledge and everything). This is my main idea when I started a trading-class. It is not really a stock-pick group which many mis-understood and some requested to join our turtle-meetings. It is a closed meeting, only meant for those under me for at least 3 months plus or so ... and where we could speak the similar language. You see, I want to save my energy, debating or arguing with some outsiders about opinions. We can discuss opinions in this blog but not my short period when I m teaching my turtles to analyse.

Another constrain is SPACE. My small room could only cater for 6-8 persons, at most. If the group is too large, I cant cater for the space and it wont be effective either. Effectiveness to LEARN is the priority. Due to such, I could not accomodate some of the requests. I am sorry, again.

SPSetia : Bye-bye to this good stock. Missed her. Bye-bye to my SPSetia-wb.

PChem : Above 5.50 now ... some local funds are buying. BUY BUY BUY ..

Coward-stalker : Haha ... at least you still come in daily and also recognise that I am good. Haha ... err ... they are turtles not tortoise la. Mind your vocab. By the way, I am starting to suspect that you ARE JL. Welcome to my blog.

10.50 am : I posted your second comment, CS. You see, when u speak with logic to debate(not with bad word, cursing and name-calling) it makes a little sense to me. Speaking to a inferior-complexity type of human like you will drain me ... so, I will still ignore you. Yes ... I am NOT open, not to a person like you. Haha.

HKSE is closed this morning due to typhoon.

11.05 am : An hour 'free' to jot down what in mind.

SHAMPOO Marketing



http://shanghaiist.com/2010/08/11/jackie_chan_finally_comments_on_baw.php

Bawang : It is not onion. It is a brand of shampoo - listed in HKSE(last year or so) and Jackie Chan is being used to promote their brand of shampoo. I do see 'Bawang' selling in some yok-choi-po(tabib china). The stock, 1338.hk dived from HKD6(peak) to current HKD 0.68. Yes, a penny-stock now.

I was smiling when I thought of a marketing strategies. You see, I m in education line for too long and I dont know how to do marketing!! Yes, it is the MARKETING that sells products(good or bad).

Lets say company A is a leader, selling shampoo of XXX. It is selling well as they are one of the first to come out with such product. Fine. We started to hear our friends telling us about this shampoo, to replace the bar-soap we have been using to wash our hair.

We used the XXX shampoo and found it very cool. WOW ... I am using SHAMPOO. Haha .. it is new in market and then, the company A advertise their XXX shampoo in media (TV, Radio and Papers). Sales were very good as there is not competators. Fine.

Then, company B set up to take advantage of the new hype. Hey, ours will be shampoo with some fragrant smell. COOL. Hence, it was hitting the market in smaller scale(we call it YYY) as no supermarkets will take in the YYY due to some obligations to company A's XXX.Well, YYY is making waves into sundry-shops, MLM and such ... selling like 'hot-cake' as trial package given free!! Hey, now I am washing my hair with SHAMPOO plus LEMON smell. This is cool ... and word spreads ... more and more going for YYY. Those who still using soap-bar are quick to change to YYY shampoo now.

Seeing such, a company C who was selling the soap-bar felt threaten. So ... we need to ditch the soap-bar soon ... let us brain-storming ... arrghhh ... SHAMPOO + SMELL + ??? = ZZZ. Bravo... eureka!! We tell them that they have dandruff, making them believe they do have dandruff!! So, we will have anti-dandruff ingredients in it!! Heck ... public will buy into our story ... we are getting back our market-portion.

With a better establishment and better position in marketing, company C easily promote their ZZZ shampoo. By now, company A's XXX new-hype ride is over ... they created SHAMPOO, yet they are losing the market share. They need to re-act to company B's YYY and now ... ZZZ is hitting the market. What should company A do? Ok ok ... add in anti-hair-dropping ingredient ... give it a better brand name ... say "XYZ+3-in-1". Yes ... that is a cool name!! We innovate and coming out with the word 3-in-1. 3 =  fragrance, anti-dandruff and anti-hair-fall. Then, get a nice model for advertisements. Make the impact with some gimmicks and in-thing. This time public will 'trick' to buy our product ... XYZ shampoo.

So, we have company A, B and C competiting with each other .. company D, E and F joining to have the pie ... consumers are confused. By now, we have 7-in-1(plus anti-aging ... for hair?).

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The above was in my mind when I was teaching this mornig. LOL ... I was smiling as my creative brain working this morning. Back to my trading-classes. There is no way I am going to beat the what the market(training courses and such) having at the moment. So, being the company G ... a new company setting up, I could not sell SHAMPOO with more ingredients, can I? The public is confused now. One company selling trading-system and claiming theirs the best(of coz). Another 'guru' have been coaching trading for years and know in-out of markets ... doing well too but not as good as another new competitors selling new-latest-sophisticated-complex system that could beat any trading system. It is a MUST HAVE for all "GOOD" traders. Complementary to that, they will have training-course on how to use the software. A few more training-courses promoting their softwares and they came from neighbouring countries. Hence, we have whole lot of traders/speculators/investors in amrkets .... losing money, yet wondering which one to join? Should I pay more money to learn and HOPEFULLY re-gain back my capitals? More confusing questions than answers to their plight ...

One day someone closed to me gave me a suggestion ... TEH, why not you share with them(new novices and others) some concepts about investing or trading? That was like ... last year. I thought he was joking. WHAT? I am sharing views in daily basis here, man. And it is FREE. It is my interest to blog. Haha.

Trading-class for novice? No way ... I paused. Those reading my posts in NOv/Dec, I supposed to start a trading class for my readers then!! I quit even before I started!! Hmm ...

3.05 pm : KLCI up more than 10 points.  Tenaga and SIME up. MayBank, AMMB and CIMB not so ok ...

PChem : Bought her today ... wait.

MudaJaya : Welcome back ... long time no see.


TEH

U.S. Stocks Are in a Bear Market

By Hao Li | September 28, 2011 6:02 PM EDT

U.S. stocks are in a bear market, Mikio Kumada, global strategist at LGT Capital Management in Singapore, told Bloomberg TV.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index fell 24.32 points, or 2.07 percent, to end at 1,151.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 179.79 points, or 1.61 percent, to finish at 11,010.90. The Nasdaq Composite declined 2.17 percent.
From peak to trough, the S&P 500 fell over 14 percent from the July 22 high. Although there is no official definition of a bear market, one generally accepted metric is a drop of 20 percent in a two-month period, according to Investopedia.

Kumada argued that U.S. stocks are in a bear market because the Federal Reserve disappointed the market and economic problems remain unsolved. In fact, they have deteriorated, he said.

The Federal Reserve, in its latest policy statement, announced Operation Twist, which lengthened the maturity of the Fed's balance sheet. However, there was no expansion, which fell short of expectations, said Kumada.

Authorities have not fixed the economic and financial problems plaguing the U.S. and Europe, he said. In both countries, there is also considerable political obstacle in reaching effective solutions.

Kumada said in a bear market, the best case scenario is for the market to "bounce along the bottom for a while."

He expects occasional rays of hope to fuel small rallies, only to be replaced by "reality sinking in" and further market declines.

He also expects dollar-denominated commodities to perform poorly because the Fed's Operation Twist is supportive of the U.S. dollar.

In the medium-term and long-term, however, he likes gold because investors still distrust government monetary policy actions.

Currently, he said his organization is overweight cash, which is useful and flexible in an environment where investors are "manic-depressive."

source : ibtimes.com

TEH

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

My Teaching Adventure : Meetings

DOW up about 150 points. Gold at 1640 level. Crude oil moving to USD83 now. HSI was up 700+ points, lifted by oil-stocks. So, KLCI continues it rebound?

Morning ... today is Wednesday. Slightly 'free' to watch but Wed is my day to clear some paper-work. I will be having a meeting with my 3 turtles today to discuss how we could work together for the benefits of all. Yes, I m 'suddenly' being pushed to lead the group!! Hmm ... initially, I just wanted to teach 4 module of technical terms and simple usages - then, added one more module to make it 5 modules. Yes, need to add 'market psychology' which I will be doing for this Friday and next Friday. Then, seeing their enthusiasm to learn further than mere surface of TA-terms, I was thinking of turtles-meeting. I dont wish to use the word 'member' as I m NOT recruiting members!! I want to speak similar language, hence I want everyone to go thru the 5-modules and also read similar books that I did. Hence, I am slowly introducing some books to read besides "Fear and Greed' by Pauline Yong. Many told me it is out-of-stock!! Pauline, will you do something about that? Thanks.

My Trading Class

Those NEW ones who wish to be my 'turtles', well ... you are welcome. If you dont wish to wait for cohort-3(planning on Saturdays 2.30pm to 4.30pm), you may join either my THIS Friday class or next Friday. Fair? I will try to make arrangement for classes you missed, for example ... putting you with my coming new-Saturday class!!

From experiences, many will ask about it, then some at least tell me they cant make it or dont wish to join. Fine. There are still many who just dont even bother to reply. I think they just want to know some details ... no need to check much(a person comparing my trading class with Fred Tham's ... and I personally asked her to join Fred's!! Haha) .. mine the cheapest(about RM50-RM80 per class). No need to compare ... those professional classes are conducted by 'experienced' people with qualifications and mine is NOT. Haha ... theirs are nicely furnished with facilities ... mine is NOT. Haha ... I like these parts, actually. So, mine is just a cheap uncle-talk about stock-market. How to learn TA like that wor? Hmm ...

What is the advantage of mine? You get to know me in person, talking about stock-market till wee hours after classes!! Heck, u still need to bribe me teh-tarik for me to be motivated to stay up till late night, ok? Ask my poor turtles being conned many teh-tariks from me!! Haha ...

Well, after you paid thousands of riggits in those courses, you could attend their meetings or stock-picks!! Yeah ... get rich together time. In fact, many PAID the courses for the stock-picks or forums!! They are not there to learn ... even if they wanted to, they CANT comprehend much of those technicalities in few short days!! MANY given up. ASK THOSE ATTENDED the courses, ok? ASK AROUND. If you are going to pay thousands, dont you think so you have the right to SHOP around? I was told by few of my turtles their opinions about those courses. Personally, I have attended many 'free' talks etc etc ... and PAID thousands to Chart-Nexus to attend their course(I did only two days, they still owe me two days!! I will attend the other two days IF I could find the time!!). Mind you, I knew most of all the indicators BEFORE I attended CNX's course last MAY. Serious? You may read my postings in MAY 2010. Haha ...

I am tired of promoting my classes!! So, I will do with whoever I hv in hands and those requested for weekends as they cant make it on Friday nights. I have to shift a tuition class of mine to Sundays just to make sure my Sat noon till night I am free. Most probably I will be having the trading class from 2.30pm to 4.30pm, then plan for my turtles-meeting from 4.30 pm to 6.30pm AND anothe batch at 7.30pm to 9.30 pm. That is what in my mind and will discuss with my three 'pioneer' turtles of my coming classes and meetings!!

contact : cpteh@yahoo.com


Wish me luck .... see if my HARI-mau will roar further later!!

GenM : Missed her ... at 3.36 now.

IJM and WCT : Missed both of them too.

11.10 am : KLCI in RED and now in Green. What's up?

MayBank : Sold half yesterday at 7.96, bought back some this morning at 7.87-7.90(lower queues not done). RM7.96 is an important level to break for continuation of rebound. Take a look at SIME, failing to clear RM8.10 ... these are levels I will check for my stocks.

Look ... bull is running ... buy or bye? Many taking this 'short' rebound to clear their stocks, for profits or losses. Many WILL STILL hold to their bleeding stocks and will think that PAPER-LOSS is not a loss. Sigh ... I hv been telling many here, and I will knock these theories into my turtles head. Their 'cover' might be hard to crack but the turtle's heads are easier to penetrate? Haha ...

11.55 am : Going into lunch now ... sold MayBank at RM7.96. Have something in mind ... HSI in red, down 200 points. I am very cautious these days. Hmm ...
KLCI still staying at positive zone ... perhaps for a while?

off


Excellent sharings by Dali

Dali : How does one become a better than average investor, don't even say super market player? I doubt very much one can be great by studying the books. I mean we get tons of super brainy people graduating with honours in corporate finance and/or MBA all the time ... and say these people go on to study religiously the ways and strategies of Buffett, Soros, Graham-Doddsville, Ben Graham, Peter Lynch, Bruce Berkowitz, etc... - can they then be superior investors?

I don't have to answer that because the reality is for all to see, an emphatic NOOOOO. Investing is quite silly and befuddling. We try to regard it as a "subject" that can be studied, I mean if a person is brainy and wants to be a doctor, you will eventually be one by getting the degree, and if one wants to be a surgeon, he can go for more studies and training, and he will be a surgeon, he can be a better surgeon by learning all the time about the latest equipment and research findings and hone his/her skills .... you put in so much, you get so much output and benefits ... but the same cannot be said about investing, its not like you put in so much, you will end up a better investor!!!


TEH : Very well said  as always ... not from me, but from someone everyone respected in our investing-circle. You see, investing and trading could NOT studied through books. talk to me about it, I studied so many books blah blah blah ... and still lose money!! Haha ...So, I shared with BL yesterday as he is VERY hard working in STUDYING .... markets do not work that as what the books you read!! Ask those VERY experienced in markets(I am talking about those open-minded and trust-worthy ones. Many are just salesmen selling systems or their training courses --- one of them is me! Haha).

That was also what I told JL, a medical doctor by profession. He said he is 'giving-up' to be a specialist to learn investing-trading!! And he is exceptionally glad to me my first turtle? WOW ... how is that? Can you pour cold-water to his dream? If you tell me he is not brainy, you are wrong. Being brainy doesnt help much!! In fact, it could counter-fire. It is a set-back being a book-worm!! Simply because I am not a book-worm, I m saying such? Hmm  ... one day, those studied tonnes of books will understand what I mean ---- it is easier said than done.

I tried to explain to my cousin-bro who is an engineer(young). We cant really rely on 'mugging' those books and expect to do well in markets. We are BELOW AVERAGE. So, that is why I am always pointing out I am a NOVICE. And splash it to my turtles ... if I am novice, where do you all stand? PIAK. That is what most DO NOT want to hear. They are here to learn to trade and get-rich? That also explain why I WONT get many students and many will drop-out. How the hell am I going to explain better that market is NOT for you? PIAK again ... can you last 5 years of losing while learning? Can you face the facts that TRADING is not for majority of us? Then, WHY spent another few THOUSANDS to attend those technical-analysis courses?

You attend my first class,  I tell you some truth ... splash some cold-water and you will understand that I have saved you thousands of riggits buying a more complicated softwares or charts!! Heck, many doing that, you must do too ... is it?

Enough said ... conclusion : by reading books, you will NOT be even above average investors. Then, we need to THINK how we could be an average? I do hope to be in that average trader, one day. Now ... stay in novice level and have some uncle-stock-talk. Haha.

Dali : For many people, we just want to beat the market consistently. Is that a futile effort? I don't think so. I believe there are many that can beat the markets consistently but must also be cognizant of a few truths:

a)
.
.
.
h) Woulda, coulda, shoulda ... stop thinking like the people talking rots at kopitiams because those sentiments will never get you anywhere and always uttered by people who will fail at most things they do in life. Learn, keep learning, give yourself the integrity of bypassing the "woulda, coulda, shoulda", move on ... what you did not do means diddlysquat to you and to all.

TEH : In my first class, I remember I have an aunty-turtle ... she will say 'hai-ya ... hai-yo ... ". Then, I stopped her and asked her to listen to herself. Those could be used in kopi-tiams, those FORUMS, those novice-investors ... and I even always hear such in CNX's meetings. Those are NOT productive. That explain why I dont hai-ya, I sold my XXX already, that fellow shot up like helllll ... or hai-yo, I bought liao hor, it comes down. Banyak sial punya market. Haha ... these jokes could be heard when I m making fun in MY OWN blog. But, u dont hear me saying such in person. If you are still those I SHOULD HAVE or WHAT IF kinda of person, you do need help. Nope, not from me ... go and see a psycho-doctor. He might be able to CONSOLE you. Yes, you pay him MONEY .. he listens to your hai-yo and hai-ya, then you feel good, he is happier(must be thinking how easy his job is ... the more market going down, he is happier!! haha).

If you are going into markets with such aunties-uncles mentality(OK OK .. I will include novice- yuppies, fair?) ... yes, if you tell me you are in markets for 10-20 years, I will sneeze ... err ... hai ya, I SHOULD HAVE BEEN there in market during the bull run in 1993 or hai-ya ... IF ONLY I am in market in 1997-1998 during market crash, I am RICH NOW. Hahaha ... still making jokes with those words.

Still thinking of the aunty who bought 30-penny stocks and hold for 13-years!! Hmm ... I told you so ... I am gaining money, I am the top 20%. Yeah ... hmm ... as if it is an exam that you need to show our grades to your daddy/mommy? Grow-up ... welcome to brutal markets!! Hai ya .... LOL


Dali : So, if you think certain books or courses can help you be a better investor, by all means do it, there is no magic "model" that is out there. If there is, you better believe that it will be selling for millions of dollars. Investing is a large unknown just like your brainpower usage rate, you might know 3% of the whole thing but if something can help you get to 4%, and improve your batting average, how can that hurt.

So, in the end all the gurus are just people who have 5%-6% knowledge of the topic compared to the average investor who may be at 3% ... overall, in that light no one is a guru, not even Buffett.

TEH : If there is really only 6% to know about investing, then ... using that yardstick, I will say I only have about 1% of the knowledge!! Hmm ... majority in those markets might think they are the 'guru'. Haha ... another thing, I DO NOT allow any of my turtles to call me 'guru' or 'sifu'. Since then, the term 'cikgu' being used. I am a cikgu now. Haha

Coward-stalker : I do want to meet u in person but I wont want you to be in my classes. NOPE --- I am not going to show blah blah blah ... not to you, not to anyone. LOL. Yes, I am just a blogger, you are just a reader of my blog. So what is next? IGNORE.

6.50 pm : What a lengthy meeting as I have the chance to TALK. Haha ... it is nice to know that these few turtles do trusted me. So, we will like to see how things work ... if we are going to gain from markets by end of next year. So, the ideas are good ... a lot of trashing out on details. I will only watch ... and be more focus with my stocks that we are going to analyse and stalk.

I am not good in paper-work, I am not good in PR ... so, once that 'handled', I will
TEH

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Winning Attitudes

Four types of people

1. Right
2. Comfortable
3. Liked
4. WIN



Do listen to the clip above. What type of people are you?

RIGHT : If you want to be right, I am easily GIVE-in. I do not need to be right as that is what my 'sifu' said. I am a very loyal to those 'sifu's I have selected in my trading journey. Yes, I dont argue if FA or TA is right. It shows immaturity and shallowness. They knew ALL the things and they are always right. Their mind is too set.

COMFORTABLE : Yes, I am always in an un-comfortable situation. In many of cases, indeed. I dont care to be comfortable as being comfortable(in our own zone) we could not learn new things. Yes, I am not going to talk to others who want to be comfortable. If you come for my classes, you will NOT be comfortable. No nice room, no good air-cond, no nice carpetting --- I dont serve you water!! Comfortable means ... you only want to HEAR what you want to LISTEN to. That is called lips-service, then you will be coming to wrong place. I wont give a damn as I am going to tell you some hard-cold facts that you will feel UN-comfortable. Instead of telling you that those indicators will give us 30% profits(look at how I caught XXX with these ... blah blah advertisements), I will tell you that it is your IGNORANGE and LACK of KNOWLEDGE that making you adding to the 80% of those LOSING(or lost and given up) in markets. THAT IS VERY UN-comfortable. Ask my turtles ... I will pour cold-water to your get-rich dream. Haha. Face reality or reality will look for you, anyway.

LIKED : I used to be one of this type ... simply becuase of my 'absurd' and ab-normal interests or the way I am doing things. So, I am un-like by many ... with very few friends. I dont feel comfortable when people started to like me. Heck, if you like this blog, you are weird too ... hmm ... I am not here to be 'liked'. I dont care if you like me!! LOL. But, if you read these blah-blah-pages and EDUCATING (and inspring?) yourself, then ... that is the purpose. INVEST in educating yourself. That is my advice. I AM SERIOUS .... you dont need to be 'liked' by doing something different. You dont need people's approval to IMPROVE yourself. Why must you wait till you lose-n-lose money in markets that you REALISE that you are just one of those in the herds? Well, to be liked? Heck with them ... I rather to be un-liked then. LOL

WIN : It is not how many times you are knocked down but how many times you stand up. Winners will win. But winning take sacrifices. Hang-out with WINNERS. If you continue to go to FORUMS or those get-rich-quick schemes(scams or plots), you will NEVER win. Getting to WIN needs COURAGE. The courage to be exposed, to be knocked down ... heck, to be UNLIKED. Everyone wants to win but they 'dislike' the winners as the winners are NOT them. Then, they never figure out WHY someone could win? It is tough sacrifices.

I told my 5-yr old boy after the kids-run, after he LOST(he got no 14 ... and they only give hampers to top 10?) due to some distractions during his run. Look ... in order to win, I will tell him HOW he lost, what will cause him to LOSE ... and what is the meaning of losing?!! I am in a business of LOSING. Haha ... so, he is determined to go again NEXT YEAR. Yeah ... some courage rubbed on him from daddy!!

WINNING ATTITUDES : This is NEEDED to learn trading in markets. If you are looking for a 'buy-n-sell' system, no need to learn HOW ... just scan with a computer, a system will ask you to BUY XXX tmr and sell her for 10%-30% profits in a week, you do not have the RIGHT ATTITUDE to win. Trading is NOT as simple as many so-called salesmen trying to convince you about their system. Trading is not as difficult, either. It takes TIME to LEARN. Most of them in KLSE do not have the TIME to learn, in fact no learning attitudes in them!!

Yes, I will speak about ATTITUDES to my turtles ... as without it, they will be back-to-the-square. No right attitudes, no winning?

I was thinking of writing about how diffcult I was in the situation merely 3-4 years ago, losing-n-losing lots of money(2008 ... I dont even know what to do with my bleeding stocks!!) ... but again, I might be seen as rubbing salts to many who are trying to heal from current 'wounds'. It is still fresh ... the losses could be painful if you are new to markets. Also, IGNORANGE(and arrogance) is to pay hefty 'fees'.

Book : If there is a book I want to write, it will be HOW NOT TO LOSE IN STOCK MARKET ... something like that. This book WONT sell much as those 80% losers already quitted market by then and those NEW to markets will NOT look into such negative-views book!! I am in market to be RICH la, why you tell me how not to lose? Haha ...

sigh ... I m really teaching my turtles 'how not to lose' as by not losing, you are the top 20% in the markets!! Hold for 13-years, buy 30-penny stocks ... and you will win?! Hmm ...

Types of education - Robert kiyosaki



You are responsible for what getting into your head. If you want to BELIEVE that those advertisements of those courses that you will learn how to catch THE stock before it shoots the sky, THINK again. Ask those MANY and MANY attended courses for THOUSANDS of dollars. Get someone close to you or you could trusted. MANY people dont tell you the truth. It hurts. OUCH. Education ... getting PhD or such?

Bull Day : A mere technical rebound?

DOW up 270 points and the bull is charging back ... or just a one day flip again?

Crude oil slightly above USD80 ... I will write about good dividend stocks which I read from MB last night.

Lingui : Low at 1.06 currently. Looking at RM1. I checked the chart yesterday as someone just sold her off(finally) for a huge loss. The earthquake stories were long time over, the so-called timber-rally was over and due to ignorance and NEW to markets, someone holding to it is .... ouch.

Not to lose is more important that profitting at the moment. Losing 50% is too much as we need 100% increment to breakeven.


MayBank : So, RSI at 9 yesterday, two huge volumes of selling and some panic-selling seen at 7.40 level yesterday. Now at 7.75, I grabbed at 7.65-7.69 done just now ... and it is not random, either. I cleared my SIME for her ... yes, I told some of my turtles I m grabbing her!! Hmm .... the bank-harimau ... mesti mau, roaring again?

1.55 pm : KLCI up 20 points.

MayBank : At 7.83 now. Good.

Sime : Not moving much, that is why I opted for Maybank.

Gold and Silver is recovering well!!! Hmm ...

4.10 pm : Just finished my classes.

KLCI up 33 points and HSI up 660 points. Yippee ... bull is running now.UY BUY BUY .... or ... err ... bye?

When bull is running, many things you buy also go up. Wow ... suddenly WE BELIEVE it is BULL run now. Or is it time to take profit, hide as it might be just one-day flip again?

As traders, we try to follow the trend, follow our plans and work hard on preserving our capitals for next trades.

SPSetia : At 3.50 level now. Buying should be beow 3.20 ... I asked my two turtles to buy at RM3.20.

SPSetia-wb : This is what I really missed. OUCH.

MayBank : Sold half at 7.96. Nice.

This is what I am going to do when I retired ... wait for opportunities in markets - from equities, forex, futures and more ... with knowledge, I just need a few trades once in a while!! Nice way to retire?

10.15 pm : Very tired as I hv been busy preparing for some painting works to be done next week. Painting, lightings and wiring will be done next week. Then, air-cond, water heater and filter should move in too.

DOW up like ... wow ... another 200+ points. More buying will be seen tmr in KLSE and HKSE too. Those panic-selling yesterday could be hitting their heads tmr? MayBank and AMMB might rebound further ... who sold them yesterday? IJM also shooting ... SPSetia, MahSing ... arrr ggghhh ... got bullets to shoot or not?

GLD up 2.5% now as Gold prices recovering, at 1660 now.

SLV up 7% today after being hammered down.
TEH

Monday, September 26, 2011

Waterfalls Watch

Top Losers

1. KLK 19.56 (RSI 23)
2. PBBank 11.82 (RSI 13)
3. DiGi 29.38 (RSI 39)
4. RHBCap 7.13 (RSI 16)
5. BatuKawan 14.48 (RSI 25)
6. GAB 9.42 (RSI 15)
7. PPB 15.78 (RSI 29)
8. MayBank 7.51 (RSI 9)
9. IJM 4.38 (RSI 17)
10. TWS 7.46 (RSI 19)
11. MHB 5.32 (RSI 14)
12. Carlsberg 6.20 (RSI 21)
13. AMMB 5.38 (RSI 15)
14. MISC 5.65 (RSI 25)
15. TWSPlant 2.95 (RSI 33)
16. Taann 4.25 (RSI 22)
17. BStead 4.54 (RSI 20)
18. Scable
19. Harta
20. PetGas
21. GenP
22. MBMR
23. MSC
24. PetDag
25. Help
26. KPJ-wa
27. CBIP
28. Media
29. PChem
30. Proton
31. Kulim
32. Armada
33. IOICorp
34. Bursa lost 14 cents (RSI 20)
35. MPHB 2.21
36. UEMLand
37. AirPort
38. KFC 3.18 (RSI 17)
39. HSPlant 2.30 (RSI 20)
40. UOADev
41. Faber
42. BHIC
43. WCT
44. TDM
45. HLBank
46. IJM-wc
47. Esso
48. BRDB
49. MRCB
50. Sapcres
51. Sunway at 1.67
52. MahSing
53. AFG
54. MNRB
55. TChong
56. CYPark
57. Coastal
58. TSH
59. ENG
60. KPJ
61. IJMLand at 1.70 (RSI 13)
62. KNM at 1.14
63. MSM
64. IJMPlant
65. Parkson
66. etc

Going for shopping ... which one to buy?

TEH

Selldown : Bear in KLSE

It is almost 11 am ... I couldnt get online this morning. I do have classes too.

I am wearing very RED and my wife asked me ... today market will go down meh? I was laughing and said ... dont know leh, dear. You didnt iron the green-ones. Haha.

KLCI down almost 30 points now. Let me check first ...

As of today, 30 points is not a big deal anymore!! It is a big deal for KLCI to drop 10-20 points just merely 2 months ago. See how things change? Wanna bet that our friendly broker-houses are VERY BUSY coming out with more downgrading? Hmm ... are you going to WAIT for them to downgrade your stocks then only you are CONVINCED that we are in ... err ... downtrend? Hmm ... I do not control the markets, ok? I am pointing out what are expected next.

Banks : Hmm ... PBBank, Maybank, CIMB, RHB, AMMB, HLBank ... hmm ... more downside in banks, ok? I told my cohort-1 turtles to check the banking stocks last month when I posted a simple outlook of banks around the global. When some YTD down 20-50%, what is KLSE's banks? Sometimes, it is difficult to explain to those novices or many more in markets for years(merely punting without knowing anything much).

AMMB and MayBank : I do have an 'aunty' colleague always boasting to my two turtles(PT and EK) that she bought AMMB and MayBank in 2009(she subscribe to TTB's) and kept pointing to them I am just a speculator or gambler. She is a nice friend of mine but when it comes to stock-market, it is not point I debate with her, right? I have wanted to tell her to take profit on your AMMB(was at RM7 then) and Maybank(at RM9) ... but since last-year 'friction', I never speak to her about stock-market anymore!! I just find that I am taking the RISK of being keh-poh and what if KLCI continues to go up to 1700 level and these two babes of her reaching new heights? I am always placing myself in RISK ... writing these lines here. Sigh.

So, I checked with PT last Friday when he attended my class if this aunty still holding to her two priced-babes. Yup ... still holding and thinking of selling(finally). Guess if she could check market now, she might call her remisier to sell AMMB and MayBank. Yes, bought at 2009(cant remember her entry prices) was a good decision BUT selling of banks should be around July-August when banking index went down 200MA. If only she knows A LITTLE of moving-averages(she is teaching Maths too), she could keep a few more thousands of her profits? Am I going to risk myself and sharing with her later? Part of me wanting to help, but THIS IS MONEY ---- her money. I will be blamed, anyone could understand how difficult it is to ask anyone if we could BUY or SELL a stock?

PBBank : I was joking with a 'turtle' of mine(SAM) that PBBank is the tai-kor of banking in KLSE. He said ... no la, it is MayBank. Haha ... the joke was, PBBank's TEH is my uncle. Haha ... so, my uncle-TEH is the tai-kor. Yup, PBBank is built to be the BEST bank in Malaysia now. MayBank(or CIMB or RHB) are national-banks. Might as well nationalised them!! PBBank still give good dividends, ok? But for PBBank's price to double, that could take a huge bull-rally. By then, our Najib's bank will have tripled. BN-boleh

SAM : Yes, he is a very experienced person in KLSE and working in financial-line. Thanks for such a respect to attend my uncle-class, SAM. Wanted to treat you teh-tarik. Haha


KLK : Going down below RM20 today ... it was at RM20 when I first taught my cohort-0 (Nos 2010) about looking at leader of the industry/sector. Also sharing with them the sensitivity of certain counters with CPO. Some counters deriving their earnings from DIFFERENT forms. That is called homework to be done. Otherwise, one may not understand these reports. It is business, for your info. Some common-sense(not self-denial) will help too.

BStead : Still moving lower ... buy-n-hold? Dont be investor at this point of time. It is just first-leg la ...

SIME : Not done at 7.90 and lower. It touched 7.95. At 8.02 level now, nothing much.

Note : I DO NOT take pleasure seeing anyone losing money especially those I know but I could not and should not ask them to buy/sell. The risk of losing a friend is great. This is MARKET. It is noisy, many are buying and today many selling. These activities generated by FEAR and GREED, which will be my module-4 for my cohort-1.

I am in up-beat mood as KLCI down 32 points now, HSI down 300 points. I cant hide my excitement. I am sorry for those losing as I have cut-cut-cut losses too. But, I did that much earlier. That is knowledge .. helping me to keep in the game(as what my sifu .... Livermore said).

GenM : At 3.04 now ... wow. Check her out. This is another stock my gal-turtle(WY) holding, bought at RM3.30 level in NOV 2010 and did not take profits at RM3.60 and RM3.80(those are resistance levels). I was talking to her on Sat ... she just smiled. I cant be asking her to clear her at RM3.20 then, right? What should I do? Tell her that GenM sure to go below RM3?? How do I know?? No way, I do not know, to be honest!!

Short the banking-stocks

HSBC : Going below HKD60 today. PE around 11. Watch her going below HKD50 first.

ICBC : Touched HKD3.78, new low today. ouch.

ABC : Touched HKD 2.65 new low today. ouch.

Click : Defensive stocks by Moo-moo

2.05 pm : WOW ... KLCI down 39 points. So, we are in downtrend now? Still no? Hmm ... technical rebound might be seen in days as KLCI is oversold la.

What is important to note is BANKS and PLANTATIONS are heavy-weights in KLCI-index linked. So, with these today in selling today, no need to check KLCI support la. Breaking ... and braking?

Proton : Upgraded to HOLD by CIMB ... due to Mitshu? Hmm ... Proton? Down 6% today and at RM2.60 now. Hold? Hmm ....

MHB : Down 7% so far today.

2.20 pm : HSI down 500 points now. Guess what is up in HSI? Hmm ...

Gold went down to 1570 level and Silver went down to 26 level. WOW.

2.35 pm : Ok ... KLCI down 45 points.

KLCI down 50 points now ... buy or bye? I am waiting for 70-80 points drop!! Dare enough to move in?

Going for BJToto or YTLPower? How about GenM? hmm ....

KLCI dropping 53 points. Got panic selling or not?

MAS : Mana ada sistem la? Drooping 6% now.

3.10 pm : KLCI above 1320 level now. Phew.

SIME : Clearing her too at RM8 done. Bye.

GOLD went down to 1540 just now, recovering. Very volatile now.

BStead : Going below RM4.50 now. Nice.

Twitter : I do have a twitter and I am going to use that(must learn la). Then, get a-smart phone ... can tweet and facebook. Yes, these are two 'instruments' I am going to create and use to reach for my turtles, readers and "members". Yes, it will be for member-only.

Those with twitter could follow-me, ya. Hehe

GenM : Was queueing at 2.98 not done. It touched 3.01, at 3.12 now. Never mind ... wait for her tmr or next week or next month ...

Axiata and Genting : Turning well too ... will check on top-losers tonight. Haha

4.00 pm : Was reading Jesse Livermore's book ... nice to re-fresh some of his superb trading mentality. Just that it is hard to follow. Hmm ...

4.25 pm : KLCI only losing 35 points.

GenM : At 3.20 now ... missed her.

MudaJaya : AT 1.80 now, down 3% today. RSI was at 16 level, after today it is around 12?

KLCI closed 34 points down. Done nothing much in KLSE except took the small profits from SIME and run ... keeping cash.

off
TEH

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Jesse Livermore(I)

Jesse Livermore : What's so interesting

Time Magazine described Jesse Livermore as the most fabulous living U.S. stock trader.

His progress from office boy to Wall Street legend - his trading lessons - his triumphs and disasters - is probably the most fascinating of any of Wall Street's stories.

Even today, many stock and commodity traders owe Jesse Livermore a deep debt of gratitude for sharing his experiences in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

The techniques he made public have endured through many decades; his trading rules earned him millions of dollars, provided he stayed faithful to them.

Livermore also lost his entire fortune on more than one occasion, when he ignored his trading rules.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Stock Trading Strategy

In a series of interviews with "Lawrence Livingstone" (a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore) the financial journalist Edwin Lefèvre got to the heart of the strategy and psychology of a master stock market trader. Lefèvre published his interviews in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Interviews with Livermore were highly prized because, as far as his market activities were concerned, Livermore was a secretive loner.
To give you a brief taste of where we will go, here are some comments from Jesse Livermore himself:

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."

TEH : No one wants to admit that most of those in markets are speculators. I am a punter and a speculator. I may want to say I am a 'trader' but I am following Jesse Livermore in many ways. Yes, I read him since last year and found that we all 'traders' and 'speculators' alike should have his mentality. I am not sure if I am stupid(only few told me I am stupid), I am not mentally lazy as I do THINK most of the time, I hope I do have inferior complexity and I am not in get-rich-quick adventure.

"...the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions."

"There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

TEH : This is a VERY important pointer always in my mind. As history repeats, we should not repeat our mistakes!! I ahve done countless of mistakes, errors, huge blunders etc etc in my trading adveture so far. As markets going to repreat whatever happened before, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS becoming very logical. Hence, last year ... I took TA in more serious manner.
"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done."

TEH : Agreed. Over-trading is killing most of us, including me. Time to reflect on this issue.
"The point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top price, but to buy or sell at the right time."

"I am tired of hearing the public and papers blame Wall Street for parting fools from their money... It's the successful business man who is the biggest sucker of the lot. He has made a fortune in his own line. How? By being on the job for years; by learning all there was to know about it; by taking reasonable chances; by utilizing his knowledge and experience to anticipate probabilities. He wants to increase that fortune at a faster rate and with less effort."

"It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right."

TEH : Then, it should take me about 10-15 years to play the game intelligently enough to make it big. I am going to be in my fourth year by end of this year .... way to go. But, I am never stop, never quit ... and will never complain about the long journey.

"Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices... the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements."

TEH : So, dont worry about your one stock if it is up or down. It is because when you took the positions, there is no plans at all when to exit and why. As we are so engrossed with our ONE stock, we miss the whole picture of the markets. I am teaching my turtles to look OUTSIDE their stocks. Rather than asking if AMMB will go lower and should you sell your AMMB for a loss, look at overall the whole banking and financial banks all around the world. I did share a post about US, UK and HK listed banks, didnt I?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am re-reading Livermore's book - yes, trying to learn from these greats will take a long period of time. Many of things are easier said than done. But it could be done!!

I will like to share more of his 'style' of trading(with my turtles) --- and hopefully, successfully to be applied in our trades.

TEH

Globally : Bearish Outlook


HSI : Below 18k now. Many stocks in new 52-week low. Many are trading at single digit PER. Worth looking into and much cheaper than KLSE.

I am forming  a group to do research into HKSE's stocks and to invest into these 'cheap' stocks. More downward to come ... so, we still have the time to check on them. Those interested to join too, may contact me. Thanks.




KLCI :  At 1365 level now. Oversold ... the dust is not clear and I think we should clear more of our positions rather than thinking of buying?

Remnant : Hi there ... yes, telco is not being spared, either. Maybank and HLFG are just in first leg down. AMMB broken its spine on Friday. Avoid banking stocks totally. Then, more constructions and property stocks will follow. Avoid them too. That is what I advised my 'turtles' last Friday. Building-naterial will not be building. Steel and Iron companies in HKSE are badly hurt. It will hit our shore too. Yes, GOLD is diving too(of coz silver will be bad shape) and Marc Faber said checking at 1600 levels last week. We shall buy during weakness but I will rather wait.

Thanks and Night.
TEH

Fear and Greed

Why Stocks Fell this Week: Fear Beat Greed
By Jill Schlesinger | Sep 23, 2011

Slow Growth + European Debt Crisis = Stocks Down, with a Twist

I used this equation about a year ago and I’m trotting it out again to explain why stocks slumped this week. A year ago, the same two issues that we face today were casting a pall over global stock markets: slow global growth and the European debt crisis. This year, it’s time to add a “twist” — investors have lost the confidence that either central banks or governments can address either of those issues effectively, which has thrown everyone into a full-fledged tizzy.

The summer of our discontent started with the debt ceiling debacle in Congress. Investors watched with dismay, as politicians appeared to be driving the U.S. economy off the cliff. The resolution came just in time, but not without draining investors’ nerves.

As the U.S. soap opera was playing out, the Greek drama continued to unfold, as European leaders promised action (it was serious enough to interrupt the beloved European summer vacation for all of the leaders!), but seemed incapable of coming together and creating a real plan of action. The EU, ECB and IMF are loathe to say this, but here’s the deal: Greece is flat-broke and the country itself, as well as the European banks that lent it money, will bear the costs together. The constant delay in speaking the truth is only making matters worse and ratcheting up investor anxiety.

Here’s how this all plays into the latest round of stock-selling around the globe: coming into the week, investors drove up stocks by five percent, buoyed by hopes that the Fed would throw the economy a lifeline and that European leaders were starting to get nervous enough to actually do something meaningful.

Unfortunately, the Fed’s acknowledgment that the economy is slow and Europe is a mess was far more powerful than the introduction of a new policy that will swap $400 billion of short-term bonds for long-term ones. In Europe, the inaction among government leaders trumped this week’s announcement by the EU, ECB and IMF that they were working together on a solution to the Greek debt crisis.

Investors and citizens are tiring of the words. Who cares if finance ministers from the G-20 leading economies pledge to take “all necessary actions to preserve the stability of the banking systems and financial markets”? We need specific actions to assuage us because neither global central banks nor government leaders have addressed slow growth or the European debt crisis in a meaningful way.
Maybe the answer is that leaders think we mere mortals can’t handle the truth about where the global economy stands. History tells us that when economies experience asset booms (think housing 2000-2006) that are financed with lots of easy lending, the subsequent bust is deep and the recovery is long and painful. How long? According Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, authors of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly“, usually 7 to 10 years.

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has recently updated the Reinhart/Rogoff thesis and has a sobering conclusion: “the recent U.S. financial crisis looks very similar to the historical crises as detailed by Reinhart and Rogoff - your “garden variety, severe financial crisis.”

If we are simply repeating history, then it looks like the next 3-5 years are going to be muddle-along ones. Until investors accept this potential outcome, they will continue to be driven by bouts of buying of selling, as they swing between their two basic emotions: fear and greed

------------------------------------------------------------------

It is Sunday ... I will be going to Mid-Valley for the renovation show. Well, I am shifting next month and been busy doing some shopping and planning. Due to lack of cash to spend, I will have to do things in stages.

Silver : Buying silver bars in is good investment at this point of time. Silver prices dive to USD 31 now. SLV dived below USD30 too. Time to buy?

Public Talk : I am not sure if I done a good job last night as I tested it on my turtles. Haha ...yes, I do have a plan to give simple sharing on knowledge about buying gold-silver and what the risk are.

Cohort-3 : I am planning for my next cohort at my NEW home next month. It shall be on Saturday Noons. I am thinking of 2.30pm to 5.30 pm. Once I confirm my time, I shall make some promotion and asking my turtles to see if any of their friends want to join my classes. Hmm ... I will slowly combine my cohort-1 and cohort-2 together as some are inconsistent, making others having to pay more(due to their absence). In fact, for my cohort-3, besides it will be RM200 per hour, I will also make them to commit their attendance after first class. If one says YES to continue, then they have to pay in advance for the second class!! That will be fair to those coming too and at least I know how many will be coming.

My cohort-1 is OK now as I do have some 'regulars' and most willing learners to share the fees. My cohort-2 is a concern with many said they are coming, only to tell me that they have other commitments to attend to. Of coz I could understand that we do sometimes could not make it at certain times, but I m more concern to be fair to those came(and paying more).

By having cohort-3 on Sat noons, those missed the Fridays could join in. I am trying to be flexible as some geniunely wanting to learn but could not make it. So, these are playing in my mind.

So, those NEW ones thinking of joining my trading class(to learn to trade using FA + TA), you are welcome to write in.

have a nice Sunday ahead.
TEH

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Gold and Silver : In correction?

It is 12.30 am ... I just came back from my cohort-2. Quite disappointed with the turn-out again as I was expecting 9 of them(if all in list turn up, it will be 11) but ONLY 6 of them turn-up.

Trading Class

The turnout of the class could be an indicator that market is BAD and many are losing money. Well, I will am going to combine the two cohorts, then if everyone turn-up, it could be too many of them then. So, it is really difficult to please everyone when it comes to time.

So, I will like to thank those attended tonight. Well, at least I have a rough idea who is really interested to learn and who is not. Yes, I will want to keep those serious and keen ones, while slowly seeing those less interested ones to drop from the classes. This is a long marathon. The indicators may not be used at the moment, all down down down  ... and I will keep reminding many NOT to move into markets at the point of time.

1.05 am : GOLD at 1645 level now, dropping almost USD300 from the peak at 1920 level. Silver is at 31 level now. Is this a mere correction or they are no longer precious?

GLD going below USD160(losing 6%) and SILV going below USD30(losing 14%)

8.10 am : DOW up slightly. I will have classes from 10am till night today!!

11 pm : Just done with my 'gold talk' with 5 of my turtles. Yes, I give a talk about GOLD. Haha ... err ... who am I to share about gold, right? Well, again ... I am cheap-talker ma ... I charge RM40 per head only, ok? And these are few people who trusted me. So, of coz I will make sure I give right information and letting them to know about the RISK.
TEH

Friday, September 23, 2011

Selldown : Bear in KLSE

$A plunges to 10-month low on US fears

Terrible market now ... brace ourselves for another huge sell-down. I will see if I could grab some in panic selling. Shopping time if KLCI down 50 points.

Counters in mind is GenM and Genting. Maybe TM and Axiata. May be Kencana and Sapcres? May be back back SIME?

9.30 am : KLCI down 25 points only. Not really panic selling seen. I bought some SIME done at 7.90 so far.

AirAsia : Get caught with her yesterday. Landed. Minor crash ... and few passengers injured. Get out soon.

BStead : Intraday low at RM4.64, so I will queue at RM4.64, RM4.60 now.

AMMB : Broken RM6 today, earlier than expected. I shared with my 'students' two weeks ago to watch. At RM5.70 now, a free-fall now.

The way I see it, today in US will be MORE selling. So, I think I will only keep SIME. Keep cash.

9.55 am : KLCI started to recover a little, down ONLY 20 points now.

BStead : My 2.64 done.

Sime : Added at RM8.05.

USD : Strengthening further ... this is where THE money is now.

Gold and Silver down. Oil down. Stocks down. USD up significantly. Check out USD vs MYR.

10.20 am : KLCI still down 15 points.

AirAsia : Cleared half at 2.82 for a loss. Grabbed yesterday at 2.92. Ouch.

11.05 am : AirAsia flying up again ... will check when market closing.

T\rading class : Support and Resistance

Tonight I do have a class, talking about Support and Resistance. Some asked me about cohort-3(my next NEW classes) and I am sorry to say that currently I am too occupied. I will consider than next month on SATURDAY morning as I have more than 5 enquiries so far.

So, those NEW ones, you may want to come TONIGHT and e-mail me. It is kinda pack tonight, tho.

My next cohort-3 wont start until I could get my cohort-1 to finish their modules. They are at module 4 and module 5 next. That is another 1 month to go. Dont worry, market still collapsing .. learn first. Be patient.

Yes, I will increase the fees to RM200 for cohort-3 onwards(next year fees. haha) ... well, remember I lost money in my Topglove-trade and I have to cover my losses? Haha ... just kidding. I have explained that next year, my Maths tuition clssses will increase significantly as exams approching. From Jan till May, I will have a crazy time!! If you think it is too expensive, the lessons and losses in markets will be much greater.

2.45 pm :  KLCI down 19 points. NO alarming of panic selling yet.

Ads : I have banked in my first cheque I received from google(Citibank, US). It will take ONE month to clear. Wow ... thought it will clear soon as USD is high now la. USD vs MYR at 3.15. Thanks to those few who have helped me to click on my google-ads. For those havent, will you please help me to click on the ads?

I am home early as I need to nap, trying to recover from my losses(in markets) ... hehe.

CyPark : Resume trading ... up now. MOU only ma, why go up in bearish market? Hmm ...

http://www.crbenv.com/

5.15 pm : Cleared off AirAsia. Luckily someone going to treat me dinner. Phew.

SIME : Closed at 8.10

BStead : Closed at 4.80

Still giants are doing better ... no more touching those non-giants.

Got to prepare for tonight's class.

KLCI down 22 points and HSI down 240 points.

Gold at 1725 now.

TEH

Interesting buy-n-hold strategy

Taken from i3investor

I'm a novice investor, but i disagree. Even in a downturn, you can buy and hold.

In 1998 i used around RM17-18K and bought 1 lot each of 30 penny stocks.

I remained passive for almost 13 years and just left the portfolio alone. (Passive Buy and Hold strategy).

One third of those stocks died (delisted, consolidated etc).

One third did almost nothing (did not appreciate much etc).

One third did very well.

Portfolio value now at current market price is around RM60K.

(This does not include the Cash i received from dividends or the payouts from Amcorp and NSTP etc etc over the last 13 years).

In the last 2 months i decided to finally clean up my portfolio (after alot of nagging from my remiser for the last 13 years).

I sold all the laggards and used the money to switch to the top 100 counters by market capitalisation.

(I did of course pick a couple of riskier counters for some high risk, high gain exposure).

I have never punted & only invest for the longer term and i only use cash to play. (I don't understand the market well enough to punt).

I have almost completed readjusting my portfolio and will soon go back to my Passive Buy & Hold Strategy.

All i know is, is that, even when the market is going down, there are opportunities for small time investors to take advantage of .......

22/09/2011 11:06

Note : The above is taken from i3investor when someone placed a comment for my early morning posting. I will want to comment on her INTERESTING strategy. Then, readers could put in their views.

What do you think of his/her strategy?

Do share with me your views. RM16k to RM60k in 13 years.

TEH

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Waterfalls Watch

TOP LOSERS

1. Dlady
2. HLBank lost 62 cents
3. PetDag
4. Genting lost 50cents
5. MSM
6. Parkson
7. IJM
8. MISC
9. HLFG
10. PChem
11. AirAsia lost 26 cents
12. Sapcres
13. DiGi
14. RHBCap
15. MMCCorp
16. TopGlove
17. UMW
18. MHB
19. Bursa
20. PPB
21. MudaJaya
22. Dialog
23. BRDB
24. BStead
25. IJMLand
26. KFC
27. MPHB
28. QL
29. PBBank-F
30. KLK
31. Kencana
32. CIMB
33. Taann
34. GuanChong
35. GenM
36. BKawan
37. Bernas
38. SIME
39. IJM-wc
40. QSR
41. MayBank
42. MRCB
43. Kulim
44. Coastal
45. Affin
46. TSH
47. GenP
48. AFG
49. SPSetia
50. MNRB
51. MahSing
52. AMMB
53. Carlsberg
54. Tenaga
55. DRBHicom
56. Sunway
57. Armada
58. KPJ
59. TDM
60. UEMLand
61. PMetal
62. IJMLand-wa
63. KLCCP
64. Supermax
65. Faber
66. Airport
67. Gamuda
68. WCT
69. CyPark
70. SOP
71. IOICorp
72. Kulim-wc
73. QL-wa
74. CSCSteel
75. PetGas
76. Support
77. KFima
78. Dayang
79. ECM
80. LandMark
81. MBSB
82. Puncak
83. Ekovest
84. Axiata
85. Media
86. IJMPlant
87. Scable
88. KNM at RM1.23 now.
89. KimLun
90. MBSB-wa
91. E&O
92. Media-wb
93. Perisai
94. KSL
95. MAS
96. TM
97. BJToto
98. KianJoo
99. Benalec
100. KEuro lost 5 cents.

12.05 am : DOW down 350 points. It is 2008 again ... hai!! Sell sell sell ... really need to wake me up when September ends.

Bearish Day for KLSE

DOW down almost 300 points. Hmm ... here we go again ... selling our remaining stocks? You see, it was bullish yesterday as KLCI was up 10points(thanks to SIME). HSI was down 200 points. Moody is moody again, downgrading large banks.

News : The Federal Reserve did what investors expected Wednesday — it said it would buy Treasury bonds to help the economy. But stocks fell anyway. The reason? The Fed made it clear that it thinks a full economic recovery is years away.

News : Moody’s cut its credit ratings Wednesday on three large banks — Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — underscoring the challenges the sector still faces three years after the onset of the financial crisis.

So, we shall see more selling in coming weeks? Yes, I m currently reading a lot about banks ....and started to look into HKSE, leaving KLSE soon.

SIME : These are further discussion in the FB regarding SIME, ranging from divergence etc etc. I am a trader and only in for short-term ride on SIME(due to huge selling) so, I wont look into weekly charts and divergence which need weeks or months to form(LL). Hence, TIME FRAME is important to mention here. As mine a short-term technical rebound, I might be selling today. Yup, I m not the normal TA-kaki. Shiro, you need to learn from others(Edwin too) as they will confuse further of the way I trade. I am looking into FA - then, MA playing a role ... before I place the S&R. I am looking for technical-rebound as I feel that current market is NOT a buy-n-hold. Investors SHOULD have sold their positions about 2 months ago when many blue-chips and giants prices went below MA200. Today, we are in for bear-rally. I rest my case.

Will be too busy to write further today until night, if I m not too tired. Yes, classes and preparations will make me work till 6pm+ again today.

coward-stalker(CS) : Thanks ... I will continue to BS, dont you worry. And thanks for visiting early in the morning. You made my day!! Can I call you CS since you shown that characteristics? If you have forgotten, I never call anyone 'coward' but you used that on me. Wonder you know the meaning? Hmm ...

11.30 am : KLCI down 18.7 points with HSI losing 760 points. How often do you see such sell-down?

SIME : Sold off half at 8.14 this morning done while looking at Genting.

SIGH : It is weird ... while I tried to be good to everyone(FA or TA), trying to help many understanding markets ... openly here ... there are still many very un-happy with what I am doing and trying to get some attention, in a negative manner. Seriously, we really have all sort of human in our surrounding. Just beware as these are crooks. They will prey on un-familiar, un-aware and weak people. These are bad humans, to me. Hence, to be successful, we need to get ourselves away from them. Ignored.

AirAsia : At 2.93 ... down 7% plus today itself. Landed. Reality seeps in ... NICE!!

Genting : At 8.90 level today ... ouch.

E&O : Lost in the trade again .. difficult market, better stay aside.

SPSetia-wb : Losing ground, cleared for small loss too.

Gamuda-wd : Cut cut cut ... yup, need to increase the fees from RM150 to perhaps RM200 per hour and give more hours to cover my losses in market. A good suggestion, indeed. Thanks again.

12.20 pm : My students not here and I am free for another half hour. KLCI hanging at 1400 level. Guess it will break 1400 or stay there for a while or move higher from here?

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2011/09/good-blogs-dont-die-not-so-good-blogs.html

Nice writing from Alex and will like to add further tonight. Got to go for lunch(free lunch today!! haha).

9.25 pm : WOW ... KLCI dropped 31 points and HSI lost 900+ points. WOW.

Buying anything cheap today? I was having lunch with MS and BL. I think many more interesting plans ahead after I am done with my modules and when trader-meeting organised. I will want to see how things work out. I am more interested in my teaching part ... the knowledge shared could be used in FUTURE and will always with us. Yes, market is ALWAYS there. Will you be there ... that is the question? If you get stuck deep into KLSE's hole at the moment, how could you be there when opportunities arises? Also, by increasing your knowledge, you could start to understand more ways of profitting, right?

Volume-play

I wanted to parade my waterfalls of HKSE's babes but too tired. I also chat with an air-cond shop boss who actually buying into goreng stock. He taught me his 'secrets'(after he lost RM2m in 1997/1998 experience) that buying stocks is meant for GORENG. You could not gain much buying Genting!! Wow. He said ... buy ASIAPAC at current level, buy hugely ... he is queueing for tmr for RM30k. Yes, RM30k for ASIAPAC because if ASIAPAC go up even one-cent or two-cents, he will sell for huge profits. Otherwise, he will HOLD. If it goes lower, he will buy more .. say, another RM30k, and HOLD. You get what I mean ... no need to check on charts or fundamentals Heck with those FA + TA. The best still PA = punting analysis.

There is some logic in his theory, actually. In fact, MANY uncles-aunties profit a lot for such strategy. I might want to consider to put some amount for such strategy - buy-n-hold those cheapest stock during market diving and HOLD till it recovers!! Yeah ...time to get rich again is here.

http://sportandstock.blogspot.com/

By ru40342
I don't actually agree on your opinion of technical analysis fail during bearish market. In fact, IMO technical analysis thrive during uncertain time as it provides clearest direction (beside EA ie economic analysis) of the market.


Furthermore the so-called pundit analysis is superbly unreliable and subject to very high ratio of risk. Limited gain but unlimited loss. Those uncles-aunties would be better off holding Pbb in the long run as good stocks tend to outperform stocks like Asiapac.


Holding a stock that has dropped and pretend that there is no loss incurred is immature in stock investing.

Hey RU ... yes, you seldom blog. Read that you are doing your PhD. Wow. Good luck, then. For those many new readers, RU is one of blogger I do read in my initial period when I was still wet-behind-ears. Haha. Yes, he is the person introduced the huge HKSE's casino for me to gamble and lost my money there! Haha. Thank ... RU. Your pointers have always been appreciated. Yes, I owed my learning to many 'senior' bloggers here. RU is one of them.

Hmm ... what I meant was TA failing for short-term trading. Many indicators giving more frequent failing signals. I didnt mean a blanket statement-la. Yes, I told my 'turtles' to check on MA ... as charts giving us the overall picture of markets. Those broker-reports will not. Those analysts was still trying to cope with the current situations and coming up with down-grading reports soon, in tonnes.

Yes, I am pointing out that MANY uncles-aunties actually punted into stocks THAT way. Serious ... I pretended that I do not know anything much about stock-markets and asked a lot of questions!! We were buying air-conds, water filter and water heater from him. Of coz he is happy to share his 'secrets'. I am his big client today. Haha. So, you see ... what they missed out is DIVIDENDS. When stocks stuck inside for long ... and MIGHT NEVER recover, they keep averaging down. In his opinion, AsiaPac will CERTAINLY doubled his money invested. Yes, he used the word INVEST. I just listened as he was excited to share his secrets.

Another stock he was queueing is Focus-wa. It is in huge amount and he doesnt mind showing me his queue for tmr!! I was like ... wow.... this is a big shark or is there bigger shark going to have him as dinner? That is the play there, see?

I knew a man told me about a stock name 'connect'(PN17)' and how he bet HUGELY into it and gained 200% from her. He told me his secret too ... "TEH, you see .. after years in market, I discovered this way of buying into stocks. I lost a lot of money buying into those Genting-stocks and then, I learnt to buy in huge volumes. Even one or two cents, I will sell as I am buying cheap-stocks".

So, there are really many ways of punting, trading, investing, speculating ... but the bottom line is PROFIT.

I do wish the best to the boss before I left. He said ... sure win money la. Otherwise, you buy Kencana ... Mahathir's son one. Sure earn money counter too. Hmm ...

I am around long enough to listen to many good 'stories'. Those bought CWs .. forgot about it and lost ALL their money in them when it expired. I have heard of a person told me he is holding to 20 stocks(even gave me the list and many penny stocks like Saag?) and wonder what he should do. I have also heard of a reader bought Nestle when it was at RM5(WHAT??) many years ago ... buy to hold.

Who are the actual person earning hugely from markets, besides the huge-funds?
TEH

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Technical Analysis : SIME

SIME : e-mail from Shiro

Shiro : Hi Teh, this is my first e-mail to you. It is better so at least I can keep track our conversation here.

TEH : Welcome ... but hope you could understand that I DO NOT reply e-mail unless for my turtles to learn. Do you know that I have 12 e-mails this morning, besides yours which related to KLSE, 3 from my turtles? Do you know that I have 4 hours of classes today to handle while another 3 stacks of paperwork to urgently do? If u could understand that, and being considerate, then ... this might be the last reply of e-mail. Sorry, I dont keep track of my conversations with my turtles. They are my priority. Not other readers. Certainly not someone e-mail me to check on THEIR stocks. I simply ignored MANY.

Shiro : I have check through many blogs available in the net I found out that there is a difference between you and Edwin, who taught me TA in early months.

TEH : That time was months ago, when things are BULLISH. So, I could tell you MBSB going to break-out(remember?) even way before it did. Today ... is different play. You dont expect breakout, do you? Yes, Edwin learnt from Chart-Nexus ... pure technical analysis. I have to mention here AGAIN, I am NOT from TA-school. I went to CHX to learn about TA, then I laughed(I still do ... cant help it). Look ... unless you are VERY veteran in KLSE, you could NOT talk about technical-analysis as TA FAILED during these times. UNLESS we could SHORT, we go the opposite way. Imagine IF I could short many. Hahha. There are VERY different methods of learning TA ...for example FR and EW. I dont even look at these and the 'guru' Bill shared with us that day ... and CONFIRMED my views into such technicalities. Haha. Talking about TA, it doesnt WORK in many environments. You can learn that from me, honestly.

Shiro : Please take note that everything I write here is purely based on my observations and my knowledge given from Edwin so far towards this field.

TEH : Good ... at least you are listening to Edwin(or me?) for good advices. DO NOT listen to your brokers, dealers and your friends/relatives. Most do not know charts, ok? Edwin is good and kind person to share with you all. What happen to the chat-box?

Shiro : 1. Based on Edwin's TA, whenever there's RSI broke into oversold region, it's a technical sell call. However, when I read your blog, you like to mention these oversold stocks and you are likely to buy them. As what you told me before, you have studied the stock based on historical data up to 3 years and its personality. Does this mean that the way you are trading is much more like 'punting', or put it this way, 'high risk, high reward' strategy? I understand that Edwin's TA is more to support and resistance analysis, and buy on support and sell on resistance, which leads to small profit if success, small losses otherwise.

TEH : Remember, I am doing what many WONT do. Buying into those diving like hell is stupid, in my opinion. Am I reating my stupidity here? Haha ... I do not believe in High Risk, High Reward. Ask my turtles how I teach them in first class to reduce RISK. I teach them NOT to lose money first. Profit comes later. Haha. I do mentioned buy at support too. Yup, I am a punter, a speculator, a trader .. whatever names they called it. Haha.

Shiro : 2. I have been following Edwin's and your blogs. Both of you have something in common, which is RSI. It seems that your hit rate is high enough by just using RSI and buy stocks based on low RSI. Is RSI really the most important indicator?

TEH : My first module with my turtles are MA and RSI. Haha ... yup, it is important to me. You dont get many know how to use such indicators well. I am still learning, actually. Yes, I told them that I learnt RSI for 6-8 months ... just ONE indicator!! Told you so, I am such a slow learner due to my stupidty? Hmm ... I believe in LEARNING things well, apply them in REAL actual trades. That is why last time, if you read my blog 2 years ago, I only mentioned about RSI blah blah ... If you are telling me RSI for a stock is low and it is a buy NOW, I find it very vague ... what? Since when I said LOW RSI = BUY?? With such markets now, of coz many are OVERSOLD la. Need to check RSI meh? hehe ...Yes, it is an IMPORTANT tool that I am using in my buying/selling.

Shiro : 3. Put SIME as our stock case study.

This is Edwin's SIME sell-call

http://edwinextremebullrun.blogspot.com/2011/09/sime-technical-sell.html

This is your quote taken from your blog , 19th Sep 2011

SIME : At 7.86 now? What's up SIME? Checked with doctor about your diarrhea? Do take a rest, no more hot-chilly for you, babe. Yeah, I dont really wait for SIGNALS? That is risk, I know. What signals? Most TA indicators are lagging. Will check on the candle-stick later. Sime touched 7.64, my 7.60 not done. Too bad.

And it seems that you have bought and average down SIME at 7.60+, and now it's close to 8.00. As you mentioned, SIME is a blue chip company after all, and it shouldn't drop that way. It is true that TA indicators are lagging, but what advantage that gives you to get ahead from such lag? I find it very really impressive enough.




TEH : Luck? Pure stupidity of catching a knife? OF COZ I do know it is a risky trade. But, I do buy hugely into her, releasing Axiata on Friday. SIME looks more interesting at that point of time. Hmm ... if I need to answer this one, it will be very lengthy. Technical indicators?

Check the chart above ... a nice white candle-stick formed yesterday. Histograms still in RED. Mind you, KLCI was in RED yesterday, remember? What indicator(s) to use, if any?? Support at RM7.50. Queue at RM7.50 will not be done, my RM7.60 also not done. I was in sms with my turtle BL on this when I bought SIME. What indicator again? Pure punting, right? Today, it is at RM8.16 now(12.25 pm ), touched RM8.20 ... and if manage to close in green, the first GREEN histogram wil be shown in MACD histogram. Then, that is a so-called buy-signal, right? More from TA start to buy in tmr above RM8.20. What is next? Waiting for MA lines to cross to give us BUY signals? Hmm ... or RSI above 40/50?

Sime will be resisted my 20MA at around RM8.40 level, that will be the time I might SELL(keep funds to buy something else) ... and what indicators again? Wait till it break 20MA for confirmation of uptrend to BUY?

Look ... the chances of it is DOWN is much higher in such market sentiments. TA doesnt work well in such situations. Only some indicators could be apply. Check out my whole blog ... since when I bought Axiata? Only recently. Do you know that this is only the second time I bought SIME? I dont like SIME(haha) as a counter, I dont like SIME as it wont double even in bullish of markets for two years!! It is a lagging giant(like IOICorp).

So, everyone look at TA in different manner, that is why TA is interesting. It is powerful for those use it well. Do explain to me HOW those many uncles-aunties could understand TECHNICAL ANALYSIS in four days attending courses in Chart-Nexus? The software is good, the indicators taught are in a right manner ... but who is using it? In the hand of novices, IT DOESNT WORK. Ask those MANY who have paid thousands to attend the course and fizzle out. There are a few very good and learn well, of coz. I am talking bout the 80%? YOu ask them to wait till BUY signals, right? Do you think they will listen? With their many years in market punting away, reading forums, listening to rumours, do you think they care about your indicators? Then ... they will say Technical Analaysis is stupid, a scam blah blah ... without checking on THEMSELVES. Yup, they are NOT matured enough to be in market, do u know what I mean? Technical as is it ... wont work for many of them. It doesnt make sense ... as markets are dynamic. It is always in a move(and manipulated too). Dont expect technical analysis to work in such cases, ok?

12.35 pm : SIME closed at RM8.23 for lunch. Time for my lunch too.

Shiro : 3. Do you actually use real-time stock indicator?

TEH : Nope ... I am a simple person. I do use KNOWLEDGE which MANY do not have. I am lack of experience in market. Give me another 5 years, will ya?

Shiro : As I am not your student,I hope you will still drop me a reply :). I am willing to learn more here.
Looking forward!

Take care!

TEH : I replied here for sharing with all. You are welcome. Perhaps you might want to join  my classes? hehe

Shiro : P/S: My initial last name is JL, and the person who give you crap e-mails, those weren't me. is another JL :).

Cheers!

TEH : JL was my good friend of 5 years in Sabah, ok? His wife was my colleague too. We stayed at same neighbourhood and he is a young medical doctor. He was a novice with TOTAL zero knowledge about market. So, I guided him for FREE and finally ... he left after bitten me. ouch. Read Mac 2009 to Aug 2009 posts. I wont like to put anyone as JL, so you are Shiro to me. :)


SIME : e-mail from BL


Well, 1 thing I've observed for these few days is.... Usually when a stock has been oversold massively, dun too greedy to wait for it to drop further until itz support line. Eg: I was smsing w mr teh tht day regarding SIME... I was waiting to queue up at 7.6 as itz a support line for this stock. Well, I've juz realised tht support line & resistance line is juz acting like a subjective indicator for us... It doesn't mean tht we have to follow bulat2 to go in at the point.... Lookin fwd to learn more bout risk& reward soon... If I wasn't so ignorant to wait till the 7.6 level& grabbed some at 7.65, would have gt some handsome profit to get it around 7.65- 7.75 & ready to sell off at 8.4 level or at the level when every1 thinks the massive sold off by foreign funds are over& time to ride on the boat... Lots more to learn... To grab on the deal during waterfall sold off b4 the u turn rebound's there or wait till the confirmation signal's there baru masuk, this's an important decision to b made, hopefully by learnin more& getting more trading experience, we will master it better in future. :)

TEH :  Yes, BL ... support-resistance is SUBJECTIVE. You see, we reduces our risk AFTER it shown signs of reversal. For example, I caught a knife in TopGlove recently at 4.35(thought to be support) and then have to sell for a loss(tho small). Are you are risk taker? Do you have the experience of catching a knife? What if it goes lower and lower? Checking the volumes-action is important point I taught you. I caught SIME at 7.75, ok? I asked you to check 7.80 level, remember? Yup ... way to learn. But again, I do not wish to give you the fish. I am just writing here what I bought. I couldnt explain why as the deal done, we still dont know if it is a good trade or else we have to cut again? This is a yo-yo market now, more punting than trading. Yes, TA indicators lagging ... are you up enough to cut-loss if trades fail? Do think about it.

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7.30 pm : SIME closed at RM8.24. Let's talk about TECHNICAL indicators. MACD first histogram, an early signal of reversal. It didnt indicating a BUY, ok? RSI hooking upwards now ... just another indicator of early sign of reversal MIGHT be in place. Stochastic bullish-crossover at oversold region. RSI at 40 level. So, I am giving you THREE positive indicators, ok? With a WHITE candle-stick shown, is that enough? Or perhaps some 'donkeys'(stubborn head) might want to check other indicators like ADX? How about MA? No need to check MA meh? Heck, we are still BELOW 20MA, ok? What does that mean? It is a short-counter trend waterfall catching!!

Luckily it rebounded .. unlike my Topglove where I have to cut-loss. Similar trade ... TopGlove a heavyweight in glove-stock, broken RM4.50 and dive ... I got caught at RM4.35 then. I average down before market closed at RM4.29 then. The next day, it dive further ... and I waited at RM4.20 and it broken RM4.20 for me to cut-loss at RM4.19 level. Then, I sms-ed MS as I think he 'followed' my trade. Today, TopGlove did not recover well YET. How do you see such?

SIME on the other hand broken my RM8 level, dive ... and I was watching. Then, at RM 7.75, it was intraday low in the morning(you may want to CHECK the validity). So, I placed RM7.75 and went for classes. I was surprised it was done. Then, I placed RM7.70, RM7.65 and RM7.60. My cutting loss is at RM7.50 as it SHOULD NOT breach RM7.50(I told BL that day as he queued at RM7.30, i think). RM7.30?? Gosh ... I will run like hell having caught at RM7.70 level. Wait a minute, this SIME. This is NOT DVM, ok? Do you understand SIME? Hmm ... think again.

Conclusion : SIME is a BUY now due to positive indicators. ALL POSITIVE. Buying tmr, it might go up to RM8.30+ and I shall be SELLING(as always, people rushing to buy, I started to SELL ... that happened to my Axiata too).

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Lai Shien Nang : MFI is still heading south, this rebound won't able to last long.... may be 2 days story...
22 hours ago ·

Alan Ch'ng : Up or down, won't hug BB too long. If undervalued, good bargain. Can anybody help in valuation?
22 hours ago ·

Lee TG : It was a bullish harami pattern, but it needs confirmation. But with this pattern with the white candlestick close at the high with reduced volume indicates supplies had slowed, and demand appeared. I would interpret the probability of a mo...re likely up move. But during this period, it is difficult to estimate how high is a rebound, if there is because there will be many profit taking to resist any up moves. Those who can take risk may plan for a trade with a plan. If I were to plan this trade, I would only buy when it moves up today with some initial good volume (not a few lots) at least to a price of 7.94 for an entry. I may set a stop loss of 7.72 and have my initial exit target at 8.45, or exit early if it moves up be fails to strike above 82.5. I am making my interpretation and making those numbers based on candlesticks analysis.

But as I said many times, it is always better to stand aside during this period of high volatility unless one is confident of a plan and execute the plan with discipline. those already holding positions may just set a trailing stop, but if bought at the top of the latest candlestick, better execute the stop loss should it drop rather than confirming the bullish harami reversal
16 hours ago ·

Lai Shien Nang : market today no strength at all....
12 hours ago ·

CP Teh :  Time for me to sell my SIME when many started to talk about SIME. Thx, Lee. hehe
11 hours ago ·

CP Teh : Alan, when I speak about valuations, I will talk about FA, not TA. I will speak about business, CPO and global demands. These are boring stuff for TA-kaki. They prefer to talka bout MACD or BB... which, in my opinion, FAIL. It is absurb to talk about RSI and Stoc. Do u understand? May be kind Lee will explain more?
11 hours ago ·

Lee TG : CP, you may notice from my earlier comment on Sime, and most of my technical analytical comments that I do not talk about technical indicators except moving averages. Now I only look at candlesticks which is a raw indicator, with trend line...s and chart patterns for price S&R, and volume to analyst SM. Price derivative indicators lagging, but candlesticks and volume together are ideal combination of leading indicators that will allow a technical analyst to look forward to make a trading plan ahead than others who depend on lagging indicators.
12 minutes ago ·

CP Teh : Yup, I tried to explain how TA failed in my blog for my buying of SIME. You are right, I used volumes and candlestick. Also, some experience in catching a knife. Haha. Yes, MA is my resistance as this is counter-trend. Whoever drawing a SIME chart with MACD, RSI blah blah showing lack of experience in TA. We all learn from each other. Thx Lee.
2 minutes ago ·

TEH