Sunday, July 31, 2011

Trading Class

Sunday morning ... I am getting busier as KLCI is moving down. When there are sales everwhere, we should do some homework before we decide where to shop and what what bargain prices. We do buy when there are sales, yes? no?

KLCI index-linked counters.

1. CIMB
2. PChem
3. MayBank
4. YTLPower
5. YTL
6. IOICorp
7. Tenaga
8. GenM
9. MMCCorp
10. MHB

The 10 above selected due to its downtrending chart sited in first glance. One may use MA20-day to see the downtrend. Some is obvious and some in the making. It is arranged in the order of volumes(priority given). Then, I will check their RSI level for each and everyone of them. The lower, the better before I start to pick(short listing) the so-called 'nice waterfalls'. There are many more minor things I do before go shopping. Sometime, when I get lazier, that is the time I get myself punished for being too complacent.

The use to TECHNICAL analysis is meant to minimise our emotions involve in trading. It is TECHNICAL, nothing to do if you 'love' the stock due to your emotional attachment(for example, your ex-bf or ex-gf working there before!! haha).

Yeah ... easier said than done and it is lots of practice, lots of patience to LEARN. With still many out there wonder what to buy next WITHOUT much knowledge ... and refuses to learn, they will somehow know that it takes more than just "LUCK' in trading markets. Dont believe me, please. Find it out yourself ... many are still losing(or lost) in markets and WONT share with you their so-called painful experiences.

Trading Class

I have this so-called noble deeds ... to guide any novice/newbies some simple trading 'tips' and techniques for charity!! You dont pay me ... if you gain, you pay to a charity organisation some 'tokens'. But ... I m too busy and in needs of money myself at the moment. So, I will keep my plans for future when I m much more experienced and shown performances to many. I love teaching ... I like to share knowledge, I do like to help many NOT TO lose money in markets and I do wish to give more to charity. That is how this idea stuck in my head.

Those novices and newbies who wish to be my 'pioneer' few persons to learn from me, please e-mail me(at cpteh@yahoo.com ) but I will charge a 'minimal' amount. Currently, I am getting about RM80-120 per hour teaching Maths.

Fees : RM150 per hour to be shared by no of people in the class(min 3 to start)

Day and time : I m only free on Friday or Saturday night - suggesting 7.30pm to 10 pm.

Place  :At Subang Jaya.

Topic : How to trade good stocks using simple technical indicators

Level : Novices or Newbies(elementary)

Language used : English or Manglish

Objectives : To make sure learners understand the technical terms and how technical charts could help entry-exit points in tradings.

Charts will be sent in weekly basis to personal e-mail for discussion and learning purposes.

Once I have 3 persons interested to start, I will start, ok? I do have only a few interested so far but some could not make it next weekend. I will still open it for next Friday and next Saturday session. Otherwise, I will postponed it to next next Fri/Sat or indefinitely till I could get 3 interested persons to start!! hehe

Someone from JB and KK interested to learn but the travelling will not be possible. So, I am thinking of e-learning concepts. Unless I have many willing to learn(those staying out of Klang Valley), it will not be feasible for me to do much preparations on it. But, I m keeping in view.

e-book : Will come out with e-book for learning purposes(out by end of the year)
Background : You can read my profile, my disclaimers, my postings for the past 3 years(that might take you days of reading my rubbish. LOL). Or you may ask me, I m not here to con anyone. Haha.

Well, I shall wait for replies.

11.10 pm : Normally on Sat/Sun, it is quiet. No one read market news or blog much. So, I only have a reader(dont worry boss, Malaysians are welcomed - I am not racist, of coz) wrote to me to show interest. Good. Will wait till Wed for replies.

Call-warrants to punt?

MahSing - Buying coming in. Good signs. Considering MahSing-cb again.

MSM : Another to watch and looking at MSM-ca. Premium less than 10% with almost a year to expire!! Nice.

Armada : Either cb or cc but I think I shall go for its cb.

MRCB-ce : Nice breakout and premium at zero level. 80 days to expiry date. Nice.

Recently I do have many good trades as 'luck' was on my side. I was checking on my trades and noticed that many really shot up. It began with Equine and Jaks. Then, the popular waterfalls rebound, CyPark and SPSetia-wb. Before these two, actually I profitted more in MahSing-cb as I was 'lucky' to be there to watch it surging higher from 0.175 to grab her at 0.200. It was sold the next day as it shot up at 0.260. Luckily, as I was free and prepared for MahSing's waterfalling. Of coz my recent Kulim-wc and MBSB-wa were nice too. The failures to shoot higher are Alam and HuaYang which I cleared for small losses(ahead of Friday due to the risk of US debts debate). Keeping cash in hand is handy as we could continue to search for opportunities. Waterfalls like CIMB, YTLPower, Tenaga and MHB worth watching at the moment.

WCT-wb : I grabbed WCT-wb on Friday at 0.665, 0.655 and 0.645. Will see if it could jump again? Hmm ...

TEH

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Is trading suitable for you?

I have met many people interested in trading and I have also met equal number of people give up trading. Many people dream of getting rich and trading seems like an activity that does not require much work, yet has a possibility to double or triple your money. It would be unlike investing where a lot of time is required before one can see results. People are generally impatient and want to see gains fast. Trading seems to promise that. However, it is rather a perception that trading is a get rich quick avenue. There are indeed successful traders that make a lot of money. Statistically, this applies to a small group of people. They may be talented and genetically wired for trading, but they also need to gain experience over time to be good in the game. Probably for the average people who have a day job, it is difficult for most to sacrifice free time to learn trading? It is possible but it is going to be very tedious.

TEH : I have mentioned it over and over again that I am STILL in learning process. My 'old' readers will know my previous plans in my trading. I am EXPERIMENTING(and still do), creating hypothesis to be tested out and also do A LOT of work(obvious to u?). Who do not want to see profit fast? That also explain why many punted in call-warrants and also some 'tips' or rumours from friends, remisiers, dealers, insiders, forums etc etc(or even from this blog! Kidding me!!). I want to keep myself in that small group(hehe). But I do admit I need TIME to gain more experiences. I do have a full time job(teaching) and sacrifice my sleeping time or entertainment time for learning to trade. Yes, very tedious, indeed. I am a living example he is talking about. Haha. But, will I profit lots of money? Only time will tell ... as I am still only half way in my LEARNING how to trade. So, I repeat ... the MAJORITY of punters/traders in KLSE at the moment will NOT have a chance to succeed in trading due to lack of their knowledge and too EGO-istic to learn. They made one good trade and boast around. Believe me, no one could win every trades but the tricks could be gain more than you lose? In other words, if you could have 60% of gaining in a trade, in longer term ... you will win the game with the score 6 -4. Deal?

Of course, the best way to learn about trading is to go full time, and treat trading as a profession. Your odds of success would be higher than someone doing part time. But for some of us who have a family to feed, we would still need to rely on a dependable income. It is likely that you would not make money from trading in the initial years. It is still possible to trade part time, but this would mean that you have to choose a time frame that is longer, from days to months. This would require more patience and in addition, the profits will come only in certain months. The fluctuation of the market would increase the uncertainty, and you would not know what your pay check from the market would come.

TEH : I might go full-time trading and be a trading 'teacher'(I dislike the word guru or coach or sifu - teacher is someone who teach, I am in education line and loving it). At the moment, I do need a dependable income from my full time job while earning part-time from trading, from ads(blogging), tuition and now thinking of teaching trading part-time. Yes, I m only 3.5 years in KLSE ... so I do see I am still in initial years. As I m getting busier or market gets higher, I prefer a longer time frame. Profits come only when our securities shoot up in one fine day!!

Nonetheless, if you are trading part time and you still have an income, it is still nice to have supplementary income stream from trading even though it is irregular. But do not expect to get rich by trading part time. All the professional traders who really earn millions from trading do it full time. Their psychology is able to withstand large drawdowns on their capital and handle huge losses. As a part timer, you cannot risk so much and hence, you do not make big trades that make or break your account. In other words, part time trading is can be a good side income but it is difficult to become rich from it.

TEH : I fully agreed. If only I have more time to monitor and trade(also larger capitals!), I do believe I could do better than now. But again, I am too raw to go full time, yet. Trading do give me some good side income which I am accumulating well.


If you are interested to trade part time, go for a longer time frame. Do not do intra-day trading as you would not have the time and energy to focus on the screens. Trade a time-frame that does not require constant monitoring, and you can place or adjust orders once a day or once every few days.

TEH : Fully agreed for those working full-time, on the run always(like me) and especially for NOVICES. Yes, many newbies in KLSE are LURED by the great profits playing CWs. That is not trading, that is punting. If you gain, good. But if your trades go against you, do cut off ealier. If you are emotional about the trade ---- learn, learn, learn. Go and look at your portfolios now. I believe you have MANY 'loss' trades which you ars still holding and refused to cut. That is NOT trading.

Below are some of the questions that I think would help you understand yourself better and find a trading method that suits your personality and ability.

Why do you want to trade?

I find financial markets intriguing and I have a genuine interest in it. I enjoy trying to understand how markets work. I also see trading as another source of income. I believe in having multiple sources of income and hence, trading is one of them.

The reason must be compelling and you must feel strongly about it. If you do not really enjoy trading, find other things to do.

TEH : Yup, we need to like what we are doing to excel in it, and passionate about it. Even that, it doesnt guarantee a success but we could give ourselves a 'pat on the back' for trying. MOST of those in markets do NOT even try or try hard enough. Some paid thousands of dollars learning to trade, using the most sophicated computers and softwares ... and thinking they are 'ready' to trade. It is a journey, an adventure rather than a destination. Enjoy what you are doing, otherwise the 'fire' in us could easily die-off.

How much time can you devote to trading?

I have a day job and I can only spare about 2-3 hours a day for trading.

This would suggest your trading time frame. For me, I would look at the market at the end of the day and place/adjust orders for the following day.

TEH : I do use about 2-hours for blogging and trading per day. May be more hours in blogging than trading. I do spend time analysing charts and reading some news related. Key-in buy or sell takes minutes.

How much money can you afford to lose?

I can afford to lose 20% of my capital comfortably. As a young person with no financial burden, I can even afford to lose my entire trading capital in order to learn to trade properly.

Losing is a requirement in trading. Every trader loses. But every trader needs to carry on after losses. If you cannot handle the emotional loss, you are not suitable to trade.

TEH : Read the above carefully AGAIN ... it is about your risk appetite. If you think that paying for courses or classes is expensive, try trading markets without knowledge. You could easily get burnt. But, how much are you willing to lose? Can you take losses? Do you know why you lose in the first place? Do you think you will be discipline to do DIFFERENT thing the next time to avoid losing? Sure?? Think again. You and only you have the answer. If you never reflect on your losing trades, you could not learn the lessons paid. OUCH.

What is your personal character with regards to patience and discipline.

I am considered a patient person, able to wait for things to happen. I do not particularly like fast paced activities as I am not a reactive person. In terms of discipline, I can follow rules pretty well as long as I find it a point to follow them.

Trading requires both patience and discipline. Patience to wait for the right signals and not be trigger happy. There are times where you have to do nothing at all. Waiting for things to happen is harder than you think. Discipline is required to stick to your trading method through thick and thin in the market. You need to do the right thing at the right time.

TEH : Easier said than done ... being patient and disciplined.

Are you a big picture or detailed person?

I am definitely a big picture person. I can see how things connect together. I always think strategically, to an extent that I am unable to go to the details at times. I am not a meticulous person.

This would suggest whether you should use a bottom-up or top-down approach. A big picture person is more suitable for top-down approach, looking at the economy and major markets, and make trading decisions. If you like details, you can follow a few counters and be very familiar with them. You only trade this group of counters as it becomes your circle of competence.

TEH : For short term traders, especially for those trading fully using technical analysis, the bigger picture becoming irrelevant. If Wijaya or Muda give a BUY signal, time to execute the trade. Cicle of competence is important to me(so, I dont trade or write about Wijaya and Muda and such) ... I do not trade stocks which I do not stalk for a while ... to understand the characteristics of the particular stock. If you do not follow warrants and call-warrants closely, trading them could be taking too much of risk. Be focused.

What is your attitude towards money?

I believe money goes to the person who has the ability to command it.

Your mindset towards money is crucial to money management in trading. You cannot risk money unnecessarily.

TEH : Yes, this is an aspect that I have ample rooms for improvements.

What are your beliefs about market?

Market is not a get rich quick avenue. Most people lose money in the markets but it is possible to make profits if I can find and apply my edge. I believe it is all about managing risks, instead of looking at how much potential profits I can earn.

Likewise, your beliefs of the market would shape your trading methods. Adopting the right beliefs is essential to trade successfully.

Can you handle more losses than wins, even though the wins are bigger than losses?

I prefer small consistent wins to big profits.

If you want more profits per trade, you need to trade a longer time frame and you can be wrong most of the time. If you prefer to take small wins, your trades would be smaller and shorter.

TEH : Knowing that most losing money in markets is important so that we give ourselves some REALITY check. Seriously, we trade when we have the edge, when our risk substantially reduced and we should be consistent with our trades, not swayed by many hear-say. That also explain why I perfer a short 10-20% profits and I will be glad. Heck, market is always there ... why chase? why in hurry?


Taken from : http://www.bigfatpurse.com/

Shared by : A regular from Chart Nexus's forum

TEH : These are for NOVICES and NEWBIES and those many-many uncles/aunties who still dream to strike RICH without knowledge, without undertstanding of how things work, without experiences ... but full with emotions of FEAR and GREED.

Equip yourself with knowledge. Knowledge without practise is empty.

Please believe the statistics : 80%-90% lost or losing in markets. DO NOT add to the statistics.

LEARN first, market is always there!! I have lost so much of money and so many trades that I could not count or feel the pain. But, I learnt some good lessons. I have also gained much of money and so many good trades but I do not allow myself to be in greed or egoistic. The FEAR and GREED will blow us away, in the huge waves. We are too tiny.

Be careful when we are playing with fire. It is hot. OUCH.


TEH

Armada's Call Warrant

I have deleted 'Are you content' post and will post that to my personal blog. As I do have a 'song' blog, I will post songs there. This will remain as my trading blog. Yes, slowly I will remove many of personal's writings to my personal blog and all the songs to my song blog. I want to be more focus and organised. That will help me to monitor and my readers too.

6.20 pm : Tired as I have classes the whole day.

Armada's CWs : Which one to punt

ca :
cb:
cc:
cd:
ce:
cf:
cg:

Greed

You could see how these broker houses RUSHED to earn money and profit from the traders, gamblers, punters who generally WILL lose money in most of the call-warrants. As the statistics stand, 80-90% of those in market STILL losing money. I am talking about long term. Many quitted after lost a lot of money(due to lack of knowledge, ignorance and gambling-habit mentality). Some still losing money as they are still holding to many PAPER LOSS(not a loss till I sell mentality). But, those who just came into markets in 2009-2011 might get lucky and profit well. Even without much knowledge, these newbies done well due to the bullish market. But, I m speaking for a long period of time ... say, 20-30 years AFTER in markets - 0nly 10-20% profitted from the market!! How is that so?

Yes, greed in us ... if one speaking about market, we need to speak about FEAR&GREED(yes, I m promoting Pauline's book again - free ad here). The  markets fluctuate due F&G. Understanding that could that a longer time that we thought. Many newbies dont even know such psychological play.

I will want to check on Armada's and then relate that to GREED. The herds believe it will move much high from here, so ... every call-warrants are taken and grabbed. Hey, 30-50% profits in days, ok? Worth the punt? Wanna gamble?

10.10 pm : Too tired to do homework on Armada's CWs tonight. Just came back from SunWay Prramid. Time to rest.
Have a nice weekend.

TEH

Waterfall Watch : YTLPower

YTLPower is in selling down. The above chart clearly shown a downtrend and yesterday, July 29th 2011, it dived below RM2 to close at 1.96(touched 1.95) with huge volumes. This extreme selling giving us an opportunity to accumulate.

Last year Nov 9th, YTLPower done a stun never seen in my short 3-trading years. It shot from 2.35 to 2.76(closed at 2.60) in a day with huge volume. This is what I called 'climax buying'. That is the day anyone holding her, who do monitor markets should SELL. Extreme buying without solid and valid reasons(change in fundamentals) is a SELL to me. I dont care what the other technical analysts will say as I am a trader. If it still shoot high, never mind. I have taken my profits.

On few occasions, YTLPower was in sell-down(high volumes seen too) but any short-term technical rebounds were resisted and the down trending continues.

Yesterday was an interesting day for YTLPower as it went down below RM2 psychological level with huge selling volumes. Who are the sellers? Why the selldown on this so-called good stock? Will it ever recover to RM2 or high or will it continues to move lower from here and back to 1.80 level? Many are holding to this stock, some bought her for dividend etc etc.

So, it is in everyone's mind what is going on and what is next?

I am more interested to see this as a waterfall-watch, upgraded from merely a stock-watch which I placed weeks ago. Yes, I was watching for RM2. The rebound to 2.22 from 2.13 was short-lived. Now is the time to catch a knife? Ouch.

Buy at your own risk.

TEH

Friday, July 29, 2011

As I will be too busy today, it is not possible to trade. So, I will be selling some, take profits or small losses. No buyings tonight, not even a ding-dong trades which I have been doing for past 2 weeks.

Reducing the exposure could reduce our risks. If market really go down 20 points later, my lower queues for WCT-wc might be done. Otherwise, I will let it go.

9.55 am : KLCI down 5 points. I have to run again.

WCT-wb : Grabbed her instead of WCT-wc at 0.665 market price now.

11.50 pm : KLCI still down 5.7 points. Just done 4 hours of classes.

WCT-wb : More done at 0.655. Wait and see ...

AmResearch maintains Buy on WCT

Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 29 July 2011 09:48

KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch has maintained its Buy call on WCT BHD with an unchanged fair value of RM3.85 after the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary WCT CONSTRUCTION Sdn Bhd secured an earthwork contract with Vale Malaysia Manufacturing Sdn Bhd.

In a note Friday, July 29, AmResearch said that this was the first major contract that WCT has secured this year.

The award is for Phase 1A (Stage 1) of Vale’s iron ore distribution centre and pelletisation plant project in Teluk Rubiah, Perak.

The total contract value is estimated at RM115mil – and is to be completed in April 2013. Scope of works includes earthwork, drainage, roads & pavement, slope protection works as well as temporary sedimentation ponds at Vale’s.

“We have maintained our earnings forecast for FY11F – as this new job forms part of our new orderbook assumptions of RM2 billion.

“Most importantly, we believe WCT’s early success would provide the impetus for the group to be in a competitive position to secure more jobs for Vale’s massive project,” it said.



Haha ... this one is funny. Haha.


TEH

Exiting Time?



US STOCKS-Buyers exit market ahead of House debt vote
By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks faded in the afternoon on Thursday to end mostly lower, with investors skeptical a key vote by Congress would lead to a deal to avoid a U.S. default.

The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight day as buyers kept to the sidelines while lawmakers tried to hash out an agreement on the deficit.

A vote on a Republican-led bill to raise the debt limit was expected after the close of trading on Thursday in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democratic-controlled Senate is crafting a competing bill, and Democratic leaders have said the House bill will be defeated in the Senate.

"During the course of the day, it became clear that even if (Republican House Speaker John) Boehner does get the vote, when it's turned over to the Senate, the Senate is going to reject it. That seems to be the reason for the selling into strength," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

Analysts said dissension among the ranks of lawmakers has also made investors less certain that a deal can happen.

The wrangling over the U.S. deficit has boosted volatility as stocks have fallen. The S&P 500 is down 3.3 percent on the week and the market's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, rose above 23, the highest since mid-June.

"The lack of leadership has optimism flying at a very low altitude... It's basically leaving investors very skittish," said Steve Goldman, market strategist with Weeden & Co in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Stocks got an early lift from a dip in jobless claims and strong pending U.S. home sales data, a day after the S&P 500 posted its biggest fall in eight weeks.

Among gainers, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR.O) jumped 16.4 percent to $102.57 after the company said late Wednesday its third-quarter sales rose 18 percent. Green Mountain was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq, which ended slightly higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average markets/index?symbol=us%21dji">.DJI ended down 62.44 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,240.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 4.22 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,300.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 1.46 points, or 0.05 percent, at 2,766.25.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), the world's largest publicly traded oil company, however, reported results that fell short of expectations and its stock fell 2.2 percent to $81.46.

Also on the downside were shares of Internet delivery company Akamai Technologies (AKAM.O), a day after it lowered its revenue growth target.

Buoying the market early in the day, pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose 2.4 percent in June from May and was up sharply from a year ago.

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 for the first time since early April.

Some 7.67 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, roughly in line with the daily average of 7.47 billion.

Decliners outweighed advancers on the NYSE by about 3 to 2, while on Nasdaq losers were about even with winners.

"It's institutional selling. It may be related to mutual fund redemptions," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. (Additional reporting by Ashley Lau; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

TEH : It is time to exit as we never know what will happen on Monday. KLCI failed to break 1562, so technicallly it is bearish and we might see KLCI down again today. DOW down 60 points.

By Dick Young
Editor, Intelligence Report

Compared to what’s coming in the months ahead, the losses you’ve seen in your portfolio in July—and even yesterday’s big 198-point loss—are but a drop in the bucket.

The coming carnage will make the crisis of 2008 seem like a cakewalk.

If you’ve been paying attention, you know that the underlying problems that caused the financial crisis are still with us. And all the stimulus plans, bailouts, and Federal Reserve’s fancy footwork are making it WORSE.

The final straw has been the pathetic bickering between Congressional Republicans and President Obama. Our deficit this year will be over $1 trillion, but these jokers can’t figure out a way to cut a measly $1 trillion in spending over the next 10 years.

No wonder stocks are falling, our enemies and allies abroad have no faith that we can dig ourselves out of this hole, and companies are hunkering down and building their cash war chests to survive what looks like a long and ugly economic downturn.

TEH : Another doom report from the bear-side.
TEH

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Chart Chat

Recently I have been lucky as I managed to catch a few good rebound-play. We called it counter-trend trading. But, at the same time, I do look for breakouts. Hence, I will want to create a chart-chat which I will chat about some charts. I do wish I m free to write and place out many charts for learning purposes. It is just not possible as I m looking at too many!!



BIMB :  Failed to breakout of 2.40 level.Closed at 2.25, touched 2.24. The MA20day is the current support at 2.24. Technically, not so good.


Jaks : Broken 0.685 level that I am watching. Nice.



WCT-wc : Moving back to base ...  will check for rebound. Huge buying seen at 0.70 and closed at 0.705. So, I will check tmr morning to see if I could punt into her next?

TEH

Stock Watch : Tenaga

DOW down almost 200points. I am wearing red today.

Checking on my previous stock watch which many moving lower, some have rebounded. MahSing, CyPark, SPSetia, UOADev, KNM and yesterday SigGas rebounded strongly. That including TigerAirways too. But many more are still diving lower and drifting ..  one of them is TENAGA, who is losing her energy.

Tenaga closed at 6.10 now, signs of rebound soon, technically. I still hoping at RM6 level as market sentiments are still BAD and that might 'help' Tenaga to go lower. RSI at 23 level now, so ... RSI below 20 at RM6 is a BUY?

Waterfalls watch : YTLPower, MHB, CIMB, JCY, EAH, FLBhd, Latexx, MAA, KSL, HSL,  KimLun ... and many more are moving lower, some jumped down the cliffs.

As we are not allowed to short in KLSE, we could only watch and wait for them to rebound.

UEMLand : At 2.60 now, reversal in the making.

E&O :  Grabbed at 1.55, reversal signals confirmed.

Kulim-wc : Cleared half at 1.16-1.17 done moments ago. 1.03 to 1.16 in a day is a good trade. I still have 1.08 portion to clear, but checking if it could break 1.18 level I mentioned yesterday.

MBSB-wa : Moving above 0.60, I saw the buying came in yesterday noon.

BIMB-ca : Someone placed a comment that BIMB was in the brink of reversal rather than breakout. I said placing a buy at 0.43, at the moment 0.425. He was right. Thanks.

11.10 am : Was very busy since morning. KLCI down more than 10 points, and failed to break 1562 level. Hence, the short rebound last week seen as temporary testing the resistance and we shall see lower tmr, due to the FEAR in US. If one is to bet that the debt-ceiling debate will give positive news, then time to bet on those moving so much lower.

Tenaga : Maintaining 6.10, and my queue at RM6 wont be done today. Touched 6.07 so far.

MHB : Opened 7.61 and up to 7.69. Should it closes high later, it will form a white candlestick.

CIMB : Losing 10cents ... placing her in my list if it goes to RM8 again. At 8.30 level today.

YTLPower : At 2.03-2.04 level ... should it goes below RM2, time to consider?

1.55 pm : Very busy ... going for lunch and another 4 hours of classes to go.

Armada : Gave birth to 5 babies today, quintuplets!!

MBSB-wa : At 0.63 now. Good. A reader bought at 0.610 this morning. BUY at your own risk, ok? I m clearing at 0.665 resistance or so.

E&O : Done at 1.53-1.55 level today.

5.10 pm : KLCI recovered from the morning blood-bath. Down 6 points.

MBSB-wa : Did not expect it to surge so high in a day and queues at 0.66 done. Cleared all. I was too busy to watch but my reader, WC who bought in at 0.610 this morning sms-ed me to let me know he sold his at 0.645. I asked him to sell at resistance 0.66-0.665. So, I sold mine too.Yes, just lucky with Kulim-wc yesterday and MBSB-wa today for 10% profits. Nice.

E&O : Came down after morning surge, so my lower queues done. Wait and see.

Alam : Resting today as market is getting nervous. So, I might want to clear her for small profits tmr to stay sideline.

Today, I will 'celebrate' a little by buying durian for my wife and kids. Hehe.



Photo taken from  http://dongsun2.blogspot.com/


Dunkin' Donuts IPO makes a scorching debut

By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY

Dunkin' Brands made a splash Wednesday, jumping 47% on their first day, causing some to wonder if investors are setting themselves up to get soaked.

The parent of Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins ice cream parlors found a strong reception as investors pushed shares to $27.85, up from the $19 initial price.

Such a strong welcome for Dunkin' Brands' initial public offering sets the tone for the rest of the week, a robust one for deals. Nine companies plan to go public this week, making it the busiest week since Dec. 13, says John Fitzgibbon of IPO Scoop.

TEH

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

DRBHicom : Part II

I want to write about her at 1.95 as 'answers' emerging after I asked days ago.

Taken from PEGGY's blog

But the next day, there was one technical analysis report, purely based on technical analysis and commented on DRBHICOM.

1) It said DRB Hicom was under strong selling pressure and have a long black candle.
2) DRB Hicom broke many of the support level
3).... this is the best part... The analyst expect DRBHicom share price to continue falling due to strong selling pressure and bearish signs....
4) Other comments include "avoid this stock", sell at RM2.00.


TEH : I want to know who wrote that analysis. I have said it again, TA cannot be used for such situation. It is silly to look at technical analysis, the indicators and such. But, somehow ... these PURE technical person being too technically, technically speaking. Haha. IT FAILED. There are MANY occasions technical charts or indicators SHOULD not be used. Do check on the intra-day volumes, queues, buying/selling and such before even look at the chart!! Manipulation could be done to charts.

So, to use technical analysis for DRB at 1.95 is totally flawed. It also shown the person has limited knowledge in market. Where do u get the article, Peggy? Send me the link, ya.

I read about the argument done by Dali. As always, he is the best in this field. Whether it is a manipulation by some broker houses or it is an error(who are they lying? Me ... I am naive. Yes, yes sir. It is error keying at 1.95). Error ... reminds me of KLK's error key-in ... that is genuine or real error, ok? But it is considered as a valid trade. Read about it ... it is interesting.


DRB-HICOM CE holders need a hero

By Francis FernandezPublished: 2011/07/30

Calling SC! Calling Bursa! I need a hero! He's gotta be strong, he's gotta be fast and he's gotta be fresh from the fight.
Alright, give me a break. I pinched those lines from a Bonnie Tyler song, and I don't need a hero, especially if it is a him.

The DRB-HICOM CE call warrant holders, however, probably need a hero badly, having been taken to the sewers due to one trading mistake.

On Monday, something dramatic happened to the DRB-HICOM mother share, when instructions to buy three million DRB-HICOM shares at RM1.95 a piece was wrongly keyed in as a sell order.

According to news reports, the error, which happened at about 4.50pm, saw three million shares transacted at RM1.95 until the closing bell.
By the way, at 4.48pm DRB-HICOM was trading at RM2.28 a share, making the lucky buyer's bid more than 30 bids lower than the actual value of the DRB-HICOM shares at that point of time.

This trading error cost the DRB-HICOM CE holders big time. The call warrants expire on August 1 with the settlement price based on the last five days' closing price.

As one commenter in a finance blog pointed out, since one of the five closing prices was pressed to RM1.95, even if the other 4 remaining closing prices are RM2.24, the settlement price will be only RM2.18, and the CE will be worth only 11.5 sen, as opposed to 14.5 sen if the five average closing price was RM2.24.

To make matters worse, the exercise price for the CE call warrants is RM1.95, and that set tongues wagging.

To set the record straight, OSK Investment Bank Bhd, the issuer of the now infamous call warrant, promptly issued a statement.

OSK said it was not involved in the substantial decline in DRB-HICOM, but noted as the closing price of the shares on Monday was RM1.95, there might "be a direct implication on the determination of the settlement price of the call warrant".

To weed out manipulation, instead of fixing the final settlement price through the last five days' closing price, the average weighted price over five days should be used instead, some have argued rightfully so.

Such an arrangement will provide retail investors a level playing field, though its cold comfort now to the DRB-HICOM CE holders.

They will remember that sunny morning on July 19 2005, when a broker mistakenly sold 18.42 million IJM Bhd warrant rights at one sen a piece. The warrant eventually rose on the same day to 45 sen, causing the broker to incur an estimated RM10 million trading loss.

Subsequently, investors were assured that there will be mechanisms in place to ensure there won't be a repeat of such mistakes.

Cold comfort indeed!

TEH

Stock Watch : Kulim

Kulim : Testing resistance at 3.70, a successful breakout will check on 3.90 level. Do check-out QSR and QSR-wa which I missed. When I missed QSR, I will check on Kulim and KFC.

Kulim-wc : Grabbed at 1.03 this morning due to technical break-out. Current high at 1.18, so I will like to see it to go nearing to 1.18 before considering selling. Averaging up later.


Kulim-cc : At 0.095 at the moment, the resistance. So, Kulim needs to break 3.70 level confidently for a further upward thrust for this baby(up 26% today, ok?). Ratio 5, exercise 3.38. Expire in Nov.

So, 0.095 x 5 = 0.475 + 3.38 = 3.855.

Fibonacci Retracement(FR)

Learning Corner : FR

DO you use FR for your TA?





Someone asked too(some long time ago)... and I have to say, I do not use FR as I do not know much about it.

TEH
Training courses : Do we need them?

Remnant : Thank, bro for your input. Yes, I have been looking into these courses which promoting themselves aggressively in Malaysia now(mostly from our neighbour) ... FOREX. will write about it further later.

Ivory : Someone asked about Ivory ... can buy ar? No, I do not know the answer or anyone could tell you that, unless u want to believe some insiders working there(top management) and know what they are actually doing. Otherwise, we ... as 'outsiders' could only guess-timate what to expect next! Some using FA, some trade using TA. Do look at Ivory post(waterfall list) which I was observing her when she went below RM1. It was traded at 90cents+, that was the level I do like. RM1 above, and today at 1.25 level ...that is 25% in 2 months? So, if we are buying at 1.25, tell me what is in your mind? You see, we are all different ... VERY different. So, we buy/sell using different strategies(if any). For me, I like those waterfalls and use counter-trend to catch some potential 'knives'.

Perhaps the latest article below might interest you. Good Luck.

Property hotspot in Penang

By Marina Emmanuel
Published: 2011/07/27

George Town: The development potential of Penang island's southeastern area is growing as more property developers are eyeing it for their projects.
Business Times has learnt that CP Land Sdn Bhd, the property arm of the CP Group, has disposed of 40 hectares of land it owns in the Queensbay area at Bayan Lepas to a Penang-based property player.

Sources said the land was sold at RM420 per sq foot (psf) to Asia Green Development Sdn Bhd in May and the transaction is believed to be worth RM160 million.

Asia Green is said to be planning to build serviced apartments on the land, which is currently serving as a parking lot.

The Queensbay development sits on 29.2ha of sea-fronting land on which Penang's largest shopping centre, Queensbay Mall, and the Eastin Hotel are sited.

The mall was sold by CP Group Sdn Bhd to CapitaMalls Asia last year for RM657 million.

On Monday, property player Ivory Property Group Bhd announced that it had won the rights to buy 41.50ha of land at Bayan Mutiara on the island, which lies south of the Penang Bridge and close to the Queensbay area.

Some 27.34ha are existing land and 14.16ha are to be reclaimed for a proposed mixed development, Ivory told Bursa Malaysia in a statement.

The reserve price of the Bayan Mutiara land is said to be RM200 psf and it is learnt that Ivory's win-ning bid was RM240 psf, im-plying that total land cost was about RM1 billion.

It is also learnt that Ivory's payment to the Penang Development Corporation will be staggered over five years and the company intends to embark on its maiden launch of the project next year.

Meanwhile, at a stone's throw from the proposed Bayan Mutiara development, Boustead Holdings Bhd is believed to be embarking on a reclamation project.

A financial daily last September reported that Boustead will be allowed to reclaim an area "very much less" than 40ha between the existing Penang Bridge and the Penang Second Crossing in Batu Maung as compensation for having had to reduce the height on a 12-storey hotel it is developing at Weld Quay on the island.

Boustead was reported to have submitted a compensation claim of RM60 million to the Penang Island Municipal Council for revoking the initial approval of a 12-storey building in order to comply with heritage status guidelines within the Unesco heritage zone.

Boustead's initial plan was for a RM140 million development of a four-star hotel with 300 rooms.

Property experts told Business Times that the cost of reclamation per square foot currently stands at RM40 and Boustead is likely to pay RM174.5 million for the reclamation of the 40ha.

It is also learnt that the Penang government will be given 8ha of the 40ha free of charge.

TEH : I do not own CP Land. Haha.

Alam : Yes, I m moving into this waterfall but that is not a stock-pick. Please DO NOT buy what is written here as I have repeatedly said : This is NOT a stock pick blog, the postings here are to SHARE what is in my mind and also to LEARN about investing/trading. No matter how many times I tried to explain that I am just a novice/newbies like many around, many still think I am just joking or being humble? I am NOT. So, do not ask me ... ALAM can buy or not? Buy at your own risk.

Kulim-wc : Going for her today. Interesting development in QSR.

Affin-cd : Up to 0.125 now ... arrghhh ... I sold her for small loss at 0.115 yesterday, it closed at 0.120. Yes, Affin will still in a move.

E&O : I missed her at 1.46, thought I hv grabbed her at 1.46 the other day, and did not buy her at 1.46 the next day. It is at 1.50 level. I was eyeing at Alam days ago, actually.

4.05 pm : KLCI still 2 points down.

MBSB-wa : Grabbed at 0.60 moments ago. This is less riskier than MBSB-ca as I will be very busy for the coming two days.

Waterfalls : I still like Tenaga, YTLPower and MHB. These are so-called blue-chips and their 'fall' giving us a nice STALK seeing if any reversals.

Mine vs CNX

Trading classes : So far I only have 4 e-mail and show some intention to LEARN. Again, coming to me without the mentality to learn(but just want to know 'this one can buy ar") will be a pain for me and you. I am an educator. And since for novices, I will start with some basics of trading a good stock using simple indicators. That should be OK with longer time frame. I DO NOT like to promote things like "guaranteed profits from blah blah" like many(CNX is one of them attracted many AUNTIES and UNCLES ... believe me, they do NOT learn much in the 4 days, and less than 1% of them know how to apply!!). Trading is risky ... know yourself and attain knowledge first. If that sounds boring to you, I m not your kind of 'tutor'.

If u think I am teaching anyone to catch SigGas, for example ... you get me wrong again. I am not CNX or any compnay which need to cover their trainers' salary, overheads(rentals and such) and commisions to many YOUNG marketing personals. I went to CNX the other day, I saw few new faces to ENTERTAIN the clients there. Expect no such comfortable treatment and such(LOL ... I buang nasi. Haha). Be practical.

If you think I will touch on call-warrants, you are very wrong again. If you are novices or newbies ... I strongly advise against trading CWs which too risky for any novices.

These are few of my criteria to my 7 turtles I coached so far. Be practical, do homework and say no to gambling blindly. Otherwise, it is a WASTE of money and TIME. Dont waste my time as I am charging peanuts. It is for EDUCATIONAL purposes, not for earning money!!

Ask those CNX graduates, if you know any of them. Many retirees there, paying thousands to learn TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. I have written about one instance last year when I spoken to a retired ENGLISH teacher, went to CNX to learn TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. Yes, I am still struggling ... guess how will they cope? Hmm ... perhaps I am a slow learner, which I need to admit.

Those who which to LEARN, do contact me at cpteh@yahoo.com. ONLY for newbies and novices who know nothing much about markets and STILL losing money in such a bullish market!! When we admit mistakes, at least we could rectify what is wrong and making improvements. But, if we are in denial(many do), we will continue to be searching for so-called ... secrets of trading!! The secret is ... NO SECRET. Haha. Enough said.


SigGas : Please check the waterfall-watch when it dipping below. I told my chat-mates last week to look at Alam and SigGas. Yes, with Edwin(a blogger too). Then, I saw buying coming in yesterday around 4pm which I recorded here to check on her last night. I opted for Alam yesterday at 0.90(done in the morning), how am I going to grab SigGas too, with my limited funds? So, at times ... these cases happen and take it, man. You dont grab everything moving up and knock your head to the wall, cursing your luck missing the boat, right? I m not sure about many, as I said ... I do not have emotion much when trading. I did not trade for 2/3 months earlier as market continues to be in OVERBOUGHT region and I was NOT emotionally fit.

Believe me, market is ALWAYS there. Increase your knowledge, your chances of making a good trade is higher. DO NOT listen to these hai-ya here and there kind of 'traders'. They do not have systems to follow and purely speculating to JUMP in AFTER it has moved higher.

Thought someone said he bought HuaYang, SPSetia-wb and CyPark at my level and losing money(WAS) ... 'lau sai' and such? I dislike his language. He is quiet now, but today ... he is back with SigGas 'comment'. I allowed the comment to be shared as I wanted to show it here that someone has been pestering me,stalking me and such for months now. His purposes? Gosh ... it is easier to ask if Kulim going to break 3.73 level rather than answering what he is up to. So, I shall let him be. His purpose of putting that comment is to inflict 'pain' in me but it doesnt really work. What I am concern is ... JL. Is that him? He is a pain to me as I 'lost' more than a good friend in him. Sigh.

Is the 'comment' disturbing me? Hmm ... a little as I do pity such idiots. I do have many good readers but sometimes ... we wonder why we still have such a pest in our lives? Hmm ...
Alam Maritim edges up in early trade

Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Wednesday, 27 July 2011 09:40

KUALA LUMPUR: ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD shares edged up in early trade on Wednesday, July 27 after its unit received a letter of award from Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd to provide one anchor handling tug supply vessel for RM10.6 million.

At 9.35am, Alam Maritim was up one sen to 92 sen with 195,900 shares traded.

Commenting on the company’s latest contract, ECM Libra Research said Alam Maritim should be back to black by 3QFY11, after likely breaking even in 2QFY11.

The research house in a note July 27 maintained its BUY call and target price (TP) of RM1.31 on Alam Maritim, and said its TP is premised on a 14x P/E multiple pegging FY11F EPS.

TEH : OSK's TP is higher.

Alam Maritim on July 26 had announced a new short term charter contract from Petronas Carigali bringing total new contracts secured this year to some RM190 million.

“We continue to see Alam in a positive light as the group is just turning the corner in terms of earnings. With the jobs already secured this year, we will be hard pressed to see the group making losses for FY11.

“Vessel demand in the offshore O&G industry is indeed making a slow comeback. A drop off in new vessel deliveries in 2010 onwards will help to tighten the supply of vessels in the market, we believe, and eventually bring charter rates higher next year,” it said.


TEH

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

10.30 pm : Just came back from a dinner at KLCC. Going to analyse some charts in mind before calling it a day. Tired.



AS : Thanks for the nice dinner. You have been a 'loyal' reader who I finally met. Yup, you are younger than I expected. Haha. Thanks for the info about Qatar too. Yes, I would love to visit Qatar when they have the World Cup there in 2022. By then, I hope I m 'free' to move and enjoy the game Haha.

MahSing(cb) back in mind. Zecon surged up due to the news.

Time to rest.

Night.

TEH

Technical Analysis Classes : Forex

Basics of Technical Analysis



Greg Secker




Here is the latest, complete review on Greg Secker's Trader's University KnowledgetoAction course. Thanks to the contributor of the review for sharing his full experience of the Forex trading course!

Knowledge to Action (K2A) – Greg Secker

First impressions; was that this was a sales pitch and nothing else; the guys were dressed in poorly tailored suits which didn’t go to meet people’s expectations that we would meet successful traders earning a mint. Of course since realised you can be trading very well and not be earning fortunes, but the first impression in any case was what I or the other 20 or so people expected.

The K2A guy, did a relatively good job explaining the forex market and it was possible to make money from the market. He handled the usual questions on “this can’t be true”, “this is gambling”, if you are a successful trader why are you doing this” quite well. He did boast a little too much he made, but being a designer man myself, I noticed the cheap shirts and clothing they were wearing.

At the end of the seminar in which he gave no real idea as to what strategies one would follow to make money they came out with sell. For £2000 + vat (disc from £3000) you’d get a 2 day Forex Training course, 3 coaching sessions of 30mins each and a Greg Secker DVD set. I had money that I had to use for retraining (any nothing else) so I went for it.

2 Day Forex Seminar

The 2 day seminar at their place in Fulham was interesting. The course was packed with 30 other people and we were all given a manual which contained 3 of Greg Seckers strategies that he teaches on the course. 1 for end of day and 2 intra day.

The Good bits :

1. The instructor was laid back, fun, interesting and had a few of trading ideas over and above the ones in the manual
2. The course went from “this is a candle” level to brief mentions of Fibonacci
3. Relaxed and motivating atmosphere
4. Step by step guide as to how to implement each strategy
5. Good overviews of the forex market and how it works

The Could do better bits :

1. No food given !!! For £1000 /day per person you think they could stretch to a sandwich!
2. Because it starts from basic principles it can be slow for some people, but then moves very quite quickly during the day two leaving the slower ones behind.
3. There is nothing in the course that you cannot read in a few £20 books and read for free on the internet
4. It is overpriced. It is priced at this level, in my view as people must think “if its this much; it must be good”. I have since seen similar courses for a less than half what K2A charge.

The Good bits

1. Met some other people who seemed serious about trading full time forex

The Could Do Better :

1. Be prepared – the coaches didn’t really have much of an agenda or seemed organised to handle the event
This was a no brainer piece of advice for me – don’t waste your money. If you look hard enough around London area you can find the same thing for a lot less.

K2A kept hammering on that brokers won’t teach you how to trade, I found by attending FREE on-line seminars in the evening, that they teach the same stuff, which I paid 2.5k for. K2A are con-artists, they promise the world but deliver nothing. They also fail to mention you require a 10k trading account to make the kind of money they promote in their seminars. Plus during our course they introduced a person who was advertising real wealth programme for £35k, really inappropriate found out from people they then discount to 15k +VAT.

In summary I am more convinced that Greg Secker makes more money from training that he does from trading as do his coaches. Have not seen or heard anything since to make me think otherwise. I am sure these guys trade and maybe some of them trade successfully, they talk a good game, just something in me isn’t 100% convinced of them as I am of what they sell.

On leaving the course, I was not at all confident in placing a trade, attended 4/5 on-line seminars which had some decent presenters, placed my 1st trade after 2wks and by chance hit profit.

I have booked coaching sessions with my coach – I’ll give a final review on these sessions when I have finished them. (Not flexible timing to suit your working life as promised)
==
Trading Classes : A Scam? Read here :

http://knowledgetoaction.blogspot.com/2010/05/knowledgetoaction-reviews-testimonies.html

Anonymous said...
I went to the free seminar this week and am delighted to say that I escaped without parting with any cash. I got lucky, and hope that everyone realises that IF these so called 'rich traders' have a fool proof way of making money, then why do they really need to tell anyone else? They don't need the £2k plus VAT if they can just do a trade and make that money anyway.

I should have read the reviews or even this forum before going then I wouldn't have wasted my time. The feedback on this page is truly invaluable. In fact this page is worth more that the £2k you might have spent if it stops others from getting fooled by these guys. Because once you've spent the money you still need more cash to fund an account, which may initially make some money but will your winning streak last?

There are clear reasons for my concern. They go on and on about how a good trader needs to be disciplined and follow the instructions of their software is giving them. BUT in reality no-one can predict the future and anyone that tells you they can is lying. More discerning is that they do not tell you what they are basing their predictions on ie, you have to listen to their advise without the proof. As we were told, 'we don't need to know how it works'.

Here my suggestion as to how it might work. Let's say for example they con five people to trade with them. They ensure that each of these subjects all place a trade on the movement of a particular stock. BUT each instruction to each individual is different. The first will be given a buy instruction the second a sell. The third a high limit, the fourth a short stop and the fifth a combination of all events. Basically one will probably make a killing but the four others will probably make a loss, But of course the stop loss of 1% will cover them and say they didn't win this time. It feels a bit like Takeshi's Castle. Ultimately everyone will loose, apart from that one lucky guy. Guess what, that's the guy they'll be using on their promo videos or the guy they will point to, to prove that their system works.

Of course, they are going to tell you all about how you can change your life by giving them your hard earned cash. Of course, they will put in trading room, miles away from the city where normal traders usually are. Of course, you have to be disciplined so that they can find a winner. Of course, when KnowledgeToAction call you it will be from a private undisclosed telephone number so it becomes difficult in call them back. Of course, you will be told that it's a once in a lifetime offer and that the normal price is £6K plus VAT. Of course, you'll still get the follow up call the next day to get you to buy in again, to this ONCE in a lifetime offer. Now, that's what I call hard sell with no comeback.

The banking world is really played havoc with our lives and people are getting desperate to do anything to make money. Life just seems to get harder. I just hope we can all look after ourselves and each other. Be careful out there.

24 June 2011 16:48

Successful Forex Trader: Be a Millionaire with Forex



Hmmm ... I am not sure if I could be confidence with him. I think I might be able to teach better than him?!



TEH
DOW down ... with 'debt ceiling' talk in play ... making the market nervous. So, staying sideline now is also good.

Will be busy in the morning ... and will only check on my queues after lunch.

9.20 am : Guess the top winner this morning? DRB, of coz. I still could not find the 'reasons' why DRB being sold at 1.95 in open market.

DRB-cd : Worth a punt now as fear is around, in the cost of DRB-ce. Ouch.

9.25 am : Grabbed DRB-cd at 0.150, market value. Time to run.

UEM-ce : Cleared at 0.105 for small loss.

Affin-cd : Cleared half at 0.115, cost price. Might clear all for small loss.

DRB-cd : Cleared at 0.155 done.

Alam : Gabbed at 0.90 today.

EPMB : Was at 0.90 level and it flew off today. Missed her.

MHB : Top loser of the day, at 7.70+ level now. After a strong uptrend since listed, it is finally giving ways. Worth watching.

1.30 pm : KLCI is flat ... I am basically out of market(due to the uncertainties in US) except that I bought Alam at 0.90 level(cut if goes below 0.88).

CyPark : At 2.20 today, might go below 2.20. I was asking the CNX's trainer on  Sat that if I want to buyback, at what level should I buy? With 2.20 was a resistance, so, 2.20 is a support at the moment, right? With a black candle-stick probable after closing today(unless a hammer forming later, instead?). So, buying at support?

KSL : At 1.80 level, in red.

3.20 pm : KLCI up 1+ points but ...

MHB : It is diving now, going below 7.60

KNM : In news, up almost 10% but Zecon flying higher. Each time KNM moving lower and lower with low volumes, someone collecting her and send out NEWS(again and again) for it to fly. Yes, this is a trading stock.

SigGas : Coming alive ... at 4pm.




TEH

Waterfall Watch : Alam


Alam : Going below 0.90 today, I am still checking 0.88 level. Another few black candle-sticks will give us extreme selling. RSI at 29 at the moment, waiting for 0.88 or lower. Wait for some buying coming back and this could be a knife. But, it is worth a punt. My next 'waterfall watch'.

Extreme buying could be seen on 20th April, with huge un-usual volumes and it gapped UP. Traders/investors believing the cooked-up stories or it could be due to good sentiments(haha ... fundamentals of a company does not change in a week, ok?). So, such an extreme buying without any postive change in its fundamentals require us to think of the 'logic'. Market doesnt make senses, we have to make a sense out of it.

So, to me ... it is a SELL if it gapped up with extreme-buying. A few more in mind are Adventa, Tenaga, YTLPower and such. Check it out ... they are down-down after the extreme-buying.


TEH

Monday, July 25, 2011

DRBHiCom


The LOOOONG black candle-stick and closed at 1.95, lost 33 cents to be the biggest loser of the day. What is going on? 1.4 millions units traded at 1.95 with NO queue at any other prices. Some selling is priced at 2.27!! So, what is that?

For such a case, TA failed. No need to check its RSI or whatever indicators. Will check on her these few days to understand further.

DRB-ce : Expiring soon. So, that could explain the dive. Well, you see ... those holding CW was with low premium or in money. You dont think the issuer(OSK here) will pay you may, right? So, what do they do? Push it down so that the premium will be high ... selldown and many retailers holding to DRB-ce will lose money!!

Lesson : Always check the expiry date. Never to buy those expiring in a month time even the premium is low.

Comment by Ivan
hi dude,

correct me if i am wrong. most cw are at european style ; and upon expired will using 5 days W average price.

2) i dont think the issuer got such power to sell down the underlying share;with the objective to make cw holder lost money.

reason:
a) they might not have power to sell all - if theydid , thus who buy are very happy and say thanks to the issuer

b) 5 day price to sell down- wondering how many shares they need, and cost?

c) thus cw lost money, sure not hapyp . will tell their fried the issuer = bad guy ; issuer =reputation fall.



TEH
10.05 am : Monday morning ... KLCI in red. I am wearing red too.

Perwaja : Continue to shoot higher, following by Kinstel

MBSB-ca : buying at 0.085 done, wait for 0.08.

CWs : Both my Affin and UEM in red too. Checking to clear all my remaining AFG-cd at 0.30.

Bimb-ca : Should I punt? ok, going for 0.430 now.

UEM-ce : 0.110 done. Wait to clear at half at 0.120 then.

11.30 am : KLCI still down 3+ points as HSI down 170 points.

Hibiscus : Down 14% in day one trading. Welcome.

Catcha : Down 13% today too. These two new babes are wearing red.

Coastal-wa : Welcome ... Up to limit.

Tenaga : Down 6cents at the moment, waiting for RM6 level.

CWs : Bimb-ca not done, cancelled as I m caught with Genting-cv at 0.10. UEM-ce at 0.11 now.

3.10 pm : KLCI down 4 points and I might fail to take profits.

AFG-cd : Cleared all at 0.290, as holding to too many CWs now. My lower queues done.

Genting : Losing about 20 cents at the moment tho positive signals of buying shown. False signals?

E&O : Grabbed her at 1.46 done.

Affin-cd : Grabbed more at 0.115. Selling at 0.120

4.55 pm : Excuse me, WHY DRB at 1.95 now?!!

9.20 pm : I checked and E&O not done at 1.46! Dont know if that is good or bad ... when markets is heading for a strong storm. U need to be a storm rider to navigate out of this coming perfect storm. Many awaiting for QE3 which doesnt seem to be coming ... weakness in markets seen.

Genting-cv : Queued at 0.10 done, cleared at 0.10 too.

MBSB-ca : Done at 0.085 and decided to clear her for a loss at 0.080 before closing.

So, currently I am holding only Affin-cd and UEM-ce. See if I could exit too in this few days. Technically, many are showing weakness today as a good few days of running last week.

I was in selling-spree last Friday as many shooting high. Let us re-check on some of those I sold off yesterday.

MahSing-cb : MahSing is a sell at 2.50(as it shot too high for her own good), so cleared at 0.26 and today cb closed at 0.22. Buying back at 0.205?

SPSetia-wb : Sold at 0.995, went to 1.04 level but today closed at 0.965. Buying back?

CyPark : Sold half at 2.18(it went above 2.30) and sold all at 2.25 today.

Of coz, after we sold a stock, it might jump much higher the next few days. That happened countless of times. We could never get to the high and sell it there nor we could grab it at the real bottom.

CIMB Research has technical Buy on MBSB

Written by theedgemalaysia.com

Monday, 25 July 2011 08:49

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Research has a technical Buy on Malaysia Building Society at RM1.44 at which it is trading at a price-to-book value of 3.0 times.

TEH : So, at 1.41-1.42 level now, is a buy? P/B is very high., indeed.

It said on Monday, July 25 that the recent consolidation is probably at its tail-end as prices seem to be well supported above its 200-day SMA.

“As the candles swing past the 30-day SMA, it also means that the bulls are slowly making a comeback. The next upleg should lift prices above the 50-day SMA,” it said.

CIMB Research said the buying momentum should pick up strongly once this level is taken out. The following resistance levels are RM1.53, RM1.64 and RM1.72.

TEH : Will be glad to sell at 1.53 level, ok?

“Aggressive traders may start to nibble now while others should wait for a push above RM1.46, the wedge resistance, before going long. Always put a stop at below RM1.34 to minimise downside risks,” it said

TEH : So, stop loss at 1.34? Well, for me ... I will cut-loss at 1.38.

5 Consequences If America Doesn’t Raise the Debt Ceiling

By Peter Gorenstein

PostsWebsiteBy Peter Gorenstein | Daily Ticker – Fri, Jul 22, 2011 12:15 PM ED

America's finances are a mess. The federal government spends too much, and the debt burden is too high.

These are givens, and they are the reasons for public outrage. However, it doesn't mean the government shouldn't raise the debt ceiling. Standard & Poor's warns there is a 50% chance it will lower the U.S. government's AAA credit rating by one or more levels within three months. S&P said yesterday that even if Congress raises the debt limit in time to avert a default, it might lower the U.S. sovereign rating. Meanwhile, only 55% of respondents in the latest Wall Street Journal poll "say that failing to raise the debt ceiling would be a real and serious problem."

Today's Daily Ticker guest David Walker -- the former Comptroller General of the United States and head of the Government Accountability Office -- says it's imperative both sides of the aisle find a compromise that also sets conditions to lower our long-term debt and get us back on track. If they don't, the rest of us will pay.

Here's what he says will happen if the federal government can't reach a deal:

1. $4 billion-plus a day will come out of the economy.

2. Government and civilian military workers will be laid off temporarily. That will result in penalties for late payment, to be paid by taxpayers.

3. Social security payments will be delayed.

4. No one knows how bad the reaction will be, but Walker is confident it will be negative for the stock and bond markets and the economy.

5. Interest rates will rise. For every 1% rise in interest rates, taxpayers will be on the hook for an additional $150 billion in debt payments.


TEH

Stock Watch : PetroAsian (0850.hk)

SIX-fold your capital, twice in less than 10 years


PetroAsian(0850.hk) : Above is the chart since inception, IPOed in 2002. Bull started to run in Jan 2006 from HKD0.16 to 1.20+ in Sept 2007. So that is more than SIX fold your capital. Assuming that I placed RM10k to buy at extreme fear at 0.16 level(nah ... we could not get most of the stocks at low level especially these unknown penny-stocks. The fear is too great), I will have cash out RM60k in less than 2 years.

Due to global crisis(or China's stock-bubble burst), it dived below HKD0.10 cents. Assuming we bought it back at 0.160, we are in paper loss when it was at a low of 0.050 and might go bankrupt. We whacked RM60k(haha ... this is for illustration, of coz) at 0.160 level. In March 2009, market reversed globally ... and up up up again above HKD1.20(in fact it went to HKD1.40+ level) for our SIX fold profits again!!

How much is the cash in hand now? RM60k x 6 = RM360k. WOW.

Now, with RM10k turning it into RM360k, how much is the percentage gain?!!

So, what is interesting at the moment? It touched HKD0.20 recently, and theoritically ... we are buying with RM360k at 0.16 again, ok? Remind me to write about her when it go back to HKD1.20 again when China market recovers, economics recover etc etc ... and we shall turn our RM320k x 6 = RM1.920 million. Do remember that we BET our RM10k into her ... and keep for 10 years.

That is how much stock market could gain us ... think about it. Get your knowledge, know how ... and you wont regret.

Night

TEH

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Trading Ideas



DRB :  Sideway trading at 2.20-2.30. Currently reaching 2.30, and positive indicators. Checking if we could see BB-breakout this time.

With many sold, I am searching for what I could punt next week. Besides BIMB-ca to consider, I was checking on DRB-cd.



E &O :  This is worth watch as MahSing, UOADev and SPSetia have rebounded and E&O is considered lagging. Resistance will be at 1.50 and a break of 1.50 will confirm the rebound, and shall test 1.64 level again.



Genting : Positive indicators and if good market sentiment is back, Genting should recover back to RM11. RSI at 42. Nice. Noted.



TEH

Green Stocks

Extreme Selling : An opportunity or a threat?

ABAT :  Recently I posted her(last month) when it went down below USD1 and was at 90cents. Ina short weeks, it has rebounded 100%!! Now, it is a SELL to me(from the candle sticks) now. I was asking a question - why is it being dumped at ridiculous low valuation(if the figures could be trusted ... well, it is a China-stock, if u know what I mean). The PE went below 2 and nearing to 1. What?? Could you find a company in KLSE with PE ratio 1? Hmm ... anyway, technically, it was a buy and selling now. Touched a high above USD1.90 and retraced to USD1.50. Valuation-wise, still VERY 'cheap'.

Click on the chart to enlarge.

Got to go.

have a nice Sunday.

TEH

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Stock Watch : Finance


Affin : Positive indicators, closed at 3.39. RSI at 53 level. Nice. Checking 3.45 level next.

Affin-cd : 4 x 0.12 = 0.48 + 3.00 = 3.48. So, premium at very low level. Bought at 0.115, cleared at 0.125 and grabbed back at 0.12. So, it is wait and see if reversal is real. Might check Affin-ce too.



AFG : Strong uptrend and breakout of 3.43 and 3.62. We need to go back to its looong historical chart now for next resistance. Do your homework.

AFG-cd : 0.28 x 3 = 0.84 + 3.00 = 3.84. Closed at 3.72, so premium very low. Expiry end of year. The setback is that AFG's RSI at 73, limited upside as risk is higher now. One could wait for profit taking on Tues or Wed as latercomers will still punt on Mon. Took partial profit, left halg inside to see how far it could go.



BIMB : High volumes coming in. Technically, bullish crossover, green histrogram and RSI 65. Waiting for breakout of 2.40 level. I will bet on it to breakout, so buy first, think later.

BIMB-ca : 0.465 x 2 = 0.93 + 1.60 = 2.53. Closed at 2.37. So, premium below 10%, good volumes, expiring end of year. Good. Going for her baby.


MBSB : RSI at 54 hookinh up, technically nice. If one are more conservative, wait for it to break 1.50 level. Increasing in volumes, bullish-crossover. Above 20MA, resisted by 50MA. I like her new baby.

MBSB-wa : 0.605 + 1.00 = 1.605. Closed at 1.44, so premium at around 10% and expiry in 2016(5 years). So, a good buy at the moment.

I like the above but I m not saying 'buy'. So, please DO NOT ask me can buy ar?

TEH
12.15 am : It is Saturday and many investors/traders will be attending some talks(RHB and Martin will be having market talk) and something going on in KLCC, right?

I do have a class from 8am to 11am. Then, I will be attending CNX's meeting!! Yes, I hv not attend the meeting for months ... or is it the first one I m attending this year? Hmm ...

I have to 'new' chat-mates where I shared with them my trades!! Yes, I told them days in advance what stocks I am going to buy soon and stalking. Yes, they do learn through sharing.

I have postponed my intention to have classes to novices/newbies about trading. Well, what in mind?

I will want to have classes for novices or newbies to learn a little about markets, stocks and tradings.

Both of them, my chat-mates want to attend my class!! Haha ... anyone else interested, please e-mail me at cpteh@yahoo.com. Thanks.

It is for novices ONLY. Totally new to KLSE or stock-market will be the best. At least, their minds are not corrupted yet. haaha.

12.40 pm : At CNX ... will write what being discussed and add-sugar and salt to it, of coz. Haha.

Tenaga : Read about Tenaga written ... many analysts MAINTAIN a BUY call. That is a bad news to me as it will be supported at current level RM6.20-RM6.30 rather than dive to RM6. Target price still above RM7+.

Ads : Nuffnang earning is RM1.20, yup ... could buy me teh-tarik after 3 weeks putting up the ads. Adverlets doing slightly better with RM7.30. Thanks ... as that could give me a dinner. The earnings from google-adsense still the best. The no of clicks still at VERY low rate ... my readerships increased from 800 to 1200 recently but the no of clicks on my ads remain as extremely low level. That is ... sad? At times, I wonder ... why? Hmm ... it is just 'natural' not remembering to exercise on our fingers. I have only 5 clicks yesterday from 1230 views!! You mean, it will take you a lot to give me a click while I give u 'entertainment' here? Hmmm ... I have tried to increase my readership, thinking of the chances of some good understanding souls will give me my free teh-tarik, after all they are reading it 'free' here.


DO u realise that I have more postings these days? Well, it is also due to the diving of KLCI. Yeah, 'old' readers should know that I am a waterfall-catcher. I might get drown, at times. I have also spent about an hour changing my blog into this nicer outlook. Why am I do dedicated for?

To attract more to read my blog? Since when I want to do marketing? Haha ... yes, marketing is an important aspect of business - something I failed badly. Hmm ... this is still a free-space. I think I have at least 30 'loyal' readers and if half of them support me by clicking on the ads, that is 15 of them!! WOW ... 15 is a huge number as I rarely get such a good response!!
Nevertheless, I want to thank those 'loyal' readers and for those new readers, cant u do me this 'small' favour?

Tired ... and might as well take a rest rather than blogging?

8.55 pm : CNX does not have a direction today as many 'novices' there learning what is trend and counter-trend strategies. Then, we just analysed some stocks thrown from the crowd(of 40). Quite random ... mostly because these novices or aunties/uncles bought into some 'hot' stocks such as KurAsia, Time, JoTech and such, and some asked if CyPark and SPSetia are a buy when I tried to shared with many I am selling. Many do not care ... these are new CNX's members(of coz they dont know me) who keep saying 'can buy ar' each time the trainer said nice chart with positive signals. Yes, they are VERY blur, explaining why I seldom want to go to CNX meeting. These 'graduates' MAJORITY of them DO NOT use the software or even trade with the systems taught, all they want to know .... 'can buy ar'?

I threw one stock to them - BIMB about to break-out(check out AFG, similarities in the chart) and the trainer posted it in CNX forum.

Other than that, I m only glad being there to meet an old CNX friend, Mr Chow. We went for teh-tarik. Perhaps, that is more of the reason I m there ... otherwise, it is not worth the time, mixing with those novices looking for SURE win stock to PUNT. These 'graduates' need to attend my classes!! Should I promote that? haha.

Nope, I do not like those willing to pay money to be given fishes!! I prefer to teach a person how to fish. If you are not willing to learn, I will be a pain to you. I am not CNX where they need to treat their graduates as 'clients' to bring in more new clients for them. Tell me how many percent of these graduates(LOL) know what they are learning, use whatever they have learnt and apply the systems in their trading? How many percent again? 10%? I believe LESS than that. You wont see their faces anymore once they graduated!!

ok ok ... i m very winding today(haha ... due to low ad klik).

Bernard : Thanks for sharing. Seriously, there is nothing out of CNX. But, I gathered a few charts to check such as BIMB, LionDiv, Magna, GenSP ...


Have a nice weekend ahead.

TEH