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Friday, March 18, 2011

DOW up 160 points!! Hurray ... KLCI up 10 points later?

TV : Last night was the second night I did not bring back my notebook ... yes, I am going to leave my computer at office!! So, there wont be any postings during weekdays' nights!! Time to watch movie/TV(bought a flat-TV last night! Haha). I will only write on Fri, Sat/Sun nights.

Evergreen : I grabbed at 1.41 average yesterday. WTK has been shooting the roof with RSI above 80. So, I grabbed Evergreen instead ... high volume registered yesterday(RSI 60) and selling should be when these CRAZY senseless speculating on Japan's usage of ply-wood or wood-related products to re-build the damages is over. I am queueing to clear some Evergreen at 1.50 and 1.54(resistance). Keeping another half to see how far it could fly.

Naim : RSI below 30 now, dared myself to queue at 2.86(support) closed at 3.05(support)yesterday. Sarawak election is on? Sure?

Will be in a so-called training for the whole day.

10.55 am : Glad to have my gang with me for the 'training'. At least we could joke and talk about KLSE. Haha

Property-sector

RHB Research remains positive on property sector but sees volatile market ahead

Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 18 March 2011 10:03

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research said while it remains positive on the sector, it is not bullish particularly in the coming 2Q11 considering the volatile market ahead.

It said on Friday, March 18 the property sector is known for its cyclical and high beta nature, and it is not a heavy weight component in the FBM KLCI.

“For sector exposure, low beta property stocks are preferred, such as Paramount and Mah Sing. REITs also could turn in favour due to their defensive yields,” it said.

TEH : MahSing may no longer categorise as low-beta as it has attracted many to trade/speculate on her. The fluctuation of its prices and votalities have increased since then. Hence, I think it is not appropriate to place Mah Sing as low-beta stock?

RHB Research said it was appropriate for investors to go for selective high beta stocks only if there is a strong project flow.

“In 2H11, key events to watch out for is the results for the tenders by developers for the Rubber Research Institute land, MRT’s “rail plus property” that Prasarana will develop with JV partners, and the official award of the development of land parcels in Singapore,” it said.

TEH : Could YTLLand benefit from here?

The research house said the biggest beneficiaries include MRCB, Ekovest (for river cleaning project) and UEM Land.

TEH : One of the reason to buy into UEMLand

The key surprise will be the JV winners in particular for the RRI land, which we think are likely to be the GLC-linked reputable developers. The best bets are SP Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing.

TEH : Yes, three of the darling of KLSE tho IJMLand no longer attractive after the fall-out with MRCB. Now, I do like IJMLand at current level.

“We believe the M&A catalyst for the sector still exists. Speculation will be centered on “who is next” to merge with MRCB, after the deal to merge with IJM Land lapsed.

“Similar to ULHB/Sunrise (a property arm of Khazanah), MRCB is the “so-called” construction/property arm of EPF, but MRCB is lagging behind in its property development and brand name. In addition, by merging with a reputable developer, its valuations are expected to normalise to a reasonable level in hopes of better fundamental grounds,” it said

RHB Research believed catalysts for the small cap property stocks are limited after a short rally in early 2011.

It lowered its fair value on Glomac and YNH. As for KSL, the stock is still largely undervalued (at 60% discount to RNAV) considering that it has just received its approval for its Bandar Bestari township project in Klang.



“Overall, as we are keeping our calls on big cap stocks, we maintain our Overweight rating on the sector. Our top pick is Mah Sing,” it said.

TEH : MahSing-cb still a good leverage play on MahSing. Expiring in 300-days, premium below 10%. IF MahSing run-up another 20%, this call could up 100%. So, MahSing-cb still one of the call-warrant I am watching to PUNT in once market stablise.

3.25 pm : KLCI up but Evergreen in RED, back to my cost-price 1.40. Hmm ...

Analysts say Bursa not in bear territory
By Goh Thean EuPublished: 2011/03/18

Foreign funds were net sellers of almost RM5 billion worth of stocks over the past six weeks, during which some RM30 billion has been wiped off from the stock market.

FOREIGN funds were net sellers of almost RM5 billion worth of stocks over the past six weeks, during which some RM30 billion has been wiped off from the stock market.

The bad news is, the trend is expected to continue.

Nevertheless, analysts declined to concede that the market is entering bear territory.

"In fact, technically, we are not even in a correction mode yet. I think the market is going through a consolidation period, where it will go sideways for some time, it could be weeks, it could be months," Jupiter Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew told Business Times when contacted yesterday.

A technical correction is when the stock market has fallen 10 per cent from its peak. This means the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI has to decline by 157 points from its peak of 1,576 points. So far, it has dropped to a low of 1,476 points - about 57 points shy of a technical correction.

A closer look at foreign funds shows they have bought RM12.13 billion worth of shares since February 2011, but have sold RM16.52 billion worth of shares in the same period.

During the period, the local stock market has lost about RM31.43 billion in value, to RM1.25 trillion.

Analysts said foreign funds have started to exit the local stock market, as well as other emerging markets, as early as mid-January this year, mainly driven by rising commodity and food prices.

When prices of food and commodities go up, consumers would have less disposable income. Analysts believe that in such a scenario, developed markets would be able to absorb the impact better than the emerging markets.

"That's why the funds are leaving the emerging markets, and moving back into the developed markets," said Pong.

Having said that, it does not mean that foreign participation would hit an all-time low this year.

"I think significant foreign funds will still be in the picture, it's just that their strategy may have changed from a long-term investment perspective, into a more short-term trading position," said Mercury Securities head of research Edmund Tham.

Retail investors are also consistently the net sellers on the local stock market, indicating they are also pessimistic on the market's short-term growth potential.

"Retail investors generally don't buy stocks and hold for long-term, they are looking for quick gains. So, we expect them to be net sellers when they see limited near-term upside on stocks," Pong said.

For the month of March, retail investors were net sellers every-single trading day, including on days when the benchmark index rose.

Despite several bad news recently, like Japan's earthquake and tsunami and unrest in Libya, analysts remained optimistic that the market will rebound.

Jupiter expects the benchmark index to hit 1,670 points by the year-end and OSK Research has a year-end target of 1,680 points.

"I believe that the market can hit 1,600 points easily by year end," said Tham.

TEH : Bullish vs Bearish views. Whiich side are you in?

IJMLand : A turtle of mine, CW, asking me about this one as he intends to hold to his IJMLand-wa(which is down). What are the risks holding to IJMLand-wa for ... say, ONE year? IJMLand-wa rebounded from the support 1.20(jotted down here last week). It is at 1.20 level now. Another turtle of mine, YH, bought IJMLand mommy at 2.62 last week. I want to check on their trades but I am 'lost' track.


Have a nice trading day as BULL will be running today!! Hopefully ...

TEH

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