Monday, February 28, 2011
Don't Panic by Coldplay
9.30 am : KLCI dropping 10 points. I am wearing RED. Murdered. Wounded. Retreat ...
Bullish or Bearish : This is a question in eevryone's mind ... at the moment, it is VERY bearish, whatever technical indicators pointing downwards and for traders, it is a cut-loss. OUCH. But, this might be a good opportunity for longer-termed bullish investor to buy at dip. It is a difficult decision as many stil showing bullishness just weeks ago. A good discussion on Bull vs Bear. Whatever we buy, it drops ... CIMB huge profits did not help, either.
In bearish markets, warrants will be BADLY hurt. So, reducing our exposure will be wise. I have cut many with losses, waiting for some light in my very red warrants. Hope against hope ... I ahve to exit most of my Cws. The risk is too high as the selling pressure persists.
11.10 am : It is Monday blues for me ... with Liverpool lost, market tanking, loads of paper work(due dates soon) and exams(for students) nearing ... the stress is VERY high. I need to job/swim today(in more regular basis) ... the stress could be tremendous and bring us down-down ...
There are two groups of people : The bullish-camp nimbling along as stocks move lower(or sideway, waiting for the stock to bottom) ... and the bearish-camp continue to sell(taking profits or cut losses) and leave the market totally.
If one is overly diverisfied into few(or many) stocks, we might not have enough bullets left to BUY(as we failed to sell during the rally). That left with a choice of trimming(cutting losses) and only collecting selected stocks which they are still bullish-on. I am in this camp.
While the bearish-camp will like accept that KLCI could go much lower from here(technically it is VERY bearish and downtrending, ok?). Some suggested KLCI 1000 psychological level for the support. OUCH.
I am trying to maintain a positive outlook and continue to like O&G and Properties. That confidence shaken when I continue to read more and more BEAR stories. Is the bull really mordered? I will buy next month Personal Money(I normally dont) to judge it myself. Those still bullish may still hold to their bleeding portfolios but those bearish would have cut-off many.
Some of my CWs cut-off more than 20%-30% losses. That is huge, but if I did not ... I would have lost more than 50% now. HOPE for it to rebound? Cut-off and move on, staying sideline while nimbling on those I am still bullish on.
It is a hard month ... as today is 28th Feb and this weekend I will have to calculate my losses for this month. I think my profits in Jan all whipped-off and I m in losses now for year 2011. Never mind ... down but not out. Just need to be reminded of mistakes done(again).
For those readers following my buyings, I am sorry for your losses. We all need to use our own judgement - to BUY, HOLD or SELL. I admit mistakes but I am still bullish ... feel free to be bearish, after all ... we couldnt tell what's next? Or can we?
AMMB-cj : Cut off at 0.130 done. ouch.
1.20 pm : Going for lunch, KLCI rebounds from the morning selldown.
KLK : Check her out ... below RM20 today. BatuKawan and Kulim are top-losers. Plantation-rally is over.
Property-stocks : This is another rally ended ... MahSing, Bolton, HuaYang, E&O, Malton ... all down. My YTLLand and UEMLand are down too. IJMLand and Naim continue to move lower. SPSetia saw some bargain-hunters today. I am still bulish in property-stocks but I think I will let the sell-down to be over.
KLCI is GREEN ... but my MHB and Dialog in red.
JCY : At 0.60 now ... extremely oversold. How do we value her?
5.00 pm : KLCI closed 1.98 points up.
It is a destruction of 'wealth' for many who are still in KLSE. It is hold now, as cutting losses is too late(or too painful). IF .... just IF ... the bull-rally is over and IF ... just IF ... we are really heading down another 100-300 points from here, that is very gloom. Why am I reading more reasonings WHY there is a sell-down? Market is overvalued, Libya's tension and blah blah ...?
Yes, have to wait for these selling to subside ... and start collecting again.
I read before : If good news could not push the stock prices higher, it has factored in. So, it is REVERSAL from there on.
The good earnings recorded from many companies did not push the market or stock prices higher, does that mean we ARE seeing REVERSAL in KLCI, not a mere correction? NO ONE could have the answer for this question!!
Ok ... I have cleared what I need to clear, not going to buy till the dust is clear. So, I am going to sit on it(haha) and becoming a mid-term investor now. Perhaps, I might turn into a loooong term investor! Hehe ...
Note : I think a hammer formed today. Tmr we shall see some technical rebound. It is interesting to see that some still concern about DOW, which in my opinion, the correlation of DOW vs KLCI is very low(minimal).
Time to re-look into many waterfalls too ... but this whole month of March will be used to focus in my job and tuition. Displine and patience needed.
Time to go home for a swim!! I have not been to the pool for months now. I have not been to bowling alley for months. I have not been to the badminton courts for months. I have not been in relax mode for months!! Since ... JAN 2011. It is only two months BUT really feel like MONTHS ... haha.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
In fact, I want to increase the number of classes, teaching till night(I done that when I was in KK). Normally, at nights I will bring my wife&kids to nearby hypermart(Mydin or Giant). Yes, I know I need to spend some time with my growing kids. Thanks Imoogi, you have a good point there. I appreciate that pointer. I worked hard for family, so certainly my family comes first. We all should place our family first. Agreed.
1 pm : Lunch and rest for a while ... time to bring kids to National Library, then visit mom. Bring mom for dinner at One-Utama Jusco and by time I m home, I will be watching Liverpool's game.
One may check this website to know which public-listed companies with Khazanah's holding. UEMLand is one of them.
10.45 pm : Liverpool is two goals down. I dont see them winning the game, a draw will be a good results at the moment. Unlikely.
EAH : At new low ... touched 0.395, closed at 0.42 now. Low volume. Abandoned. Still fundamentally good stock to collect?
JCY : Touched 0.63(new low) and rebounded to 0.655. RSI at 22, it was at 15 level on Thu. I am still monitoring her. Abandoned. Can she recovers to ...say, RM1?
Plantation : KLK lost 50 cents, CPO dropping ... many plantation-stocks registering good profits but that didnt help the stock-prices. So, are plantation stocks reached the peak and retracing now? I have cleared all my plantation stocks. Only Kwantas shot up after I cleared her. The rest not doing well. Fundamentally, I still feel the demand will continue to be strong.
YTLPower : I couldnt explain why the prices retracing.
Jaks : At support 0.675. RSI at 31, it is a BUY but with tight-stop loss.
TWSCorp : From losses to profits. Was at 0.82 support during Thur sell-down, rebounded to close at 0.85 on Friday. Bullish candle-stick, green-histogram. RSI at 39 level. Worth watching.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
CIMB : With such good profits registered, we could expect it to fly-off next week, lifting KLCI with her.
E&O : Support at 1.12 level, quarter results not encouraging, so could that explain the sell-down(with the market)? RSI slightly below 40. No buying signals. So, I wont consider it. I am mentioning here for a reader who asked me(it was at 1.20 then) where I asked him/her(I cant remember!!) to wait for quarter reports to be out. It rebouded at 1.16 now. Please do not ask me or anyone if we can buy at 1.16 level. But, I do think market will stablise and rebounds next week which will help E&O(and many) to rebound too. Buy at your own risk.
WCT : WCT broken horizontal support, broken MA200d, forming lower-low and in downtrending now. Looking at RM2.84, RSI at 23.3 level at the moment. The rsik is obvious - the middle-east order-books(nearly 50%) in jeopardy, which I highlighted last week(from The Edgedaily). As it has broken all support and with fear intensed, I will like to look into her!! Yes, it is buying during fear intensed. Highlighted too are HIGH selling pressure-volumes registered which is an indicator where many given-up on her. A contrarian or plain stupidty again? Hmm ...
Alam : Someone asked if Alam is a BUY at 0.99, I said ... I will wait for 0.90 last week. Simple logic could be ... I bought at 1.04 and 0.95 and 0.90 before, and sold at stages when it rebounded(luckily it was a bull-running, remember?). So, since I did not grab her at 1.04 this time, I will only wait at 0.90! Now, it did not go THAT low but it is still below RM1. There is a green-histogram shown, and might shown a bullish crossover in stochastic(oversold region).
DOW up 60 points. What will that means?
11.15 pm : Tired again after whole day out. With the long day in-house training, and shopping at Tesco(Puchong) ... I m fully utilised(mentally and physically).
In RED : yet another lousy quarter.
Proton : I have wanted to write about her for some time now but couldnt find the time. What is interesting about her? The story of Proton-Perodua merger is a joke. Proton is STILL losing money and one of the badly managed companies. You know, the tak-apa attitudes plus politically linked. They have protected her FAR too long that this so-called Buatan-Malaysia's car company NEVER grow-up, still suckling the chut-chut. My kids without their chut-chut after 1 year-old!! Luckily for Perodua, they 'escaped' the parasite. Some donkeys in some ministry could have the guts to suggest the merger? Huh?? Merger? Haha ...
How about Lotus? That is another old-story ... she is Dr M's baby ... and so MANY INCAPABLE human working there - incompetence with their professions(from top to bottom) and so many failed models!! Remember the kun-choi(keranda/coffin) model? I cant remember the name!! Arrghh ... there are so few on the road!! I do remember Tiara or Savvy? Tiara = Tak-dak and Savvy = Sawi. I guess that is how they get the name from.
The foriegn tie-up which failed to materialise. They might hope to tie up with TATA or QQ now. Hmm ... technologically, Proton NEVER improve since its inception. 1985 ... Beli-lah Kereta Buatan Malaysia(they only help to assemble small parts, using Mitshubishi's models) ... SAGA!!
Hey, I like my Proton-Saga. Indeed, it is cheap , spacious and good!! That is the plus point. CHEAP. If you ask anyone who could earn more than me, will you buy a Proton-Saga? Haha ... They will even prefer to pay RM10k more to buy a MyVi. Get me?? Proton's name(as a brand) is tarnished. It is BAD ... when I first bought the car, some colleagues of mine asked WHY?? Why Proton? You can certainly afford a VIOS(sorry to say, I cant afford) and the non-quality products from Proton is WELL known!! Hmm ... is Proton's car THAT bad? So far so good for me ...
Remember WAJA with many problems and complaints? How was Iswara? How about Gen-2 or the 'luxurious' Perdana?
As a stock, Proton is LOUSY to me. But its cars are affordable for lower income bracket person like me. I thanked Proton for providing me this alternative of affordable car. Perhaps one day ... Proton will shine again. Then, we shall re-look at its valuation.
MAS : This Mana-Ada-Sistem posted lower profits (not losses meh?) ... I remembered Jala given MAS some good wake-up call but he is the very few glc's top-shot who is capable to manage a company. Most are corrupted, politically linked(with personal's agenda holding the top posts) and incompetence. Seriously, AirAsia seen as a great threat. So, some donkey minister might suggest a merger of MAS-AirAsia? Or perhaps they might ask SIA? Hmm ... interesting to read that AirAsia posted 800% increased in profits but MAS ... mana ada sistem-la? Tak-apa ... kan maruah lebih penting?
Having said that, I may not touch Proton-stock but I will still buy MAS-stock(looking at RM1.84 support level) as she is somehow beautiful. Gov will bail them out if anything happen la, dont worry. Haha
Remember, when one plans to buy a GLC-stock, do NOT think of fundamental too much. Think politically. Will BN wins BIG in coming anticipated election?
衛蘭 - 大哥
分清我心意 共行成長 數不清的故事
Was listening to Cantonese numbers as it has been very long I did not listen to Cantonese songs. My Cantonese really 'karat' since I stayed in Sabah for 10 years, speaking Mandarin. Many in KK speak Hakka, which I cant grasp.
Need to sleep as I have another looong day, attending the second day of training. It is not helping an old-dog like me to learn the so-called new tricks.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Me and my ...
Advertisement : I have not replied to CNX's request to place a adv on my blog. As I mentioned, I want to stay independent. Unless I am taken as their trainer someday, I think I will remain independent. CNX has yet to reply to my application to be trained to be a trainer. Perhaps I am lack of experience or expertise, which I could admit and accept. But, it is a matter of time I will improve.
Advertisement : There are two wrote to me about the advetisement, but they are from US. I doubt their sincerity and view it as spams!!
Readers : I have e-mail from readers but as always, I hardly have time to reply anyone. Some I could only say 'thanks' just as acknowledgement that I received their mails. Thanks. Some asked about a certain stocks, some merely want to say 'hi'. Again, sorry if I could not reply to e-mail.
Clients : I have also 'paused' from advetising to seek for clients. I hv 'failed' to service my current clients due to my busyness. It was hard on me when my dad passed away. I brushed everything aside for a week, frequenting Uni-hospital. I am still struggling to find time to replace the classes I have missed, and updating loads of paper-works(ISO and MQA officers will be coming next month for checking). Anyway, my current 'clients' limited to 6 of them, and as market tanking, all in deep paper-loss. Of coz I felt bad ... I even doubt my ability to serve them better. With market tanking, it is a difficult call to ask anyone to cut-loss. I could only tell them I have sold my positions(many, but not all) for the past two weeks to raise cash to start buy ... and I started to shoot yesterday(the extreme panic-selling seen). So, in the mean time, I will like to remain communicate with my existing 6-clients. Some are of more as a friend to me now. :)
Students : I have even took a break from having any coaching-classes for my existing 7-turtles. I am simply too busy and tired. But, I will have my 8th class with them in April, and to check on their progresses. I have planned for a second class from new turtles but decided to postpone the idea indefinitely. Yeah, need not to ask others to learn investing. If a person does not have the 'realisation' to invest when they are young, it is no point to persuade him.her. Nevertheless, I do still perosnally coach few of my turtles whenever I could be 'free' in office when I see them.
Talk : End of last year, I was thinking of having my first 'public-talk' for my readers and wanting to linit it to less than 10. It will be a training ground for me to be a trainer or a speaker(about trading or investing) one day. I am an educationist, an academician. I could coach, that doesnt mean I could play. Ask Sir Alex Fergurson of Manchester United. Haha. Well, that plan postponed indefinitely too.
Market-talks : I have missed many free market-talks organised by investment banks. I have personal invitation to attend ATIC(in April - KLCC) but if I go, it will cost me a lot of money(lost from cancellation of my tuition classes). KIV.
Meetings : I have failed to join CNX's traders club meeting for weeks now(none in 2011) as it clashes with my packed hours of tuition classes. I will want to join them during my break ... in JUNE! I also want to join any trader club's meeting beside CNX. Could anyone invite me there, please?
Tuition : This is my main focus at the moment as exams nearing ... and more students looking for tuition. So, I have started 2 new classes and my Mon to Sat schedule fully occupied with tuition classes. I might even have to use a two-hour of my Sundays for a tuition class!! TIME = MONEY. I wish I have more time!!
Blog : As I am writing, I could see that I m too busy to be 'original', to be 'me' and to be able to be 'creative'. Seriously, writing needs ILHAM ... inspirations!! Haha. Sometimes, idea just pop-up ... but when you are too tired(typing and staring on pc for whole day) ... it is blanked!! I have always like to see my blog as a platform for me to keep records of my trades and calls. I will want to learn and reflect on what I have been doing. So, I do not like to be pressured to write ... or please any group of readers. Neither do I want to offend anyone. So ... it is still a public's blog where whatever I write should be taken as an entertainment puprposes!! Entertainment?? Hey, it is bearish and many losing money, you know. Cheer-up la sikit. If cant see the light at the end of current dark tunnel, sell everything and wait. Hehe.
Readings : With limited time and energy(mental), I have to be selective on my readings. I do still glance through the headlines of some biz-news online and The Edge. I will read the whole article IF I find it related(or relevent) to my stalk-list. I have books to read too ... and biz-magz such as Malaysian Business(MB). BTW, I like Dec 2010 issue "2011 faces" and was re-reading about Francis Yeoh last night.
Authoring : A blogger, Alan Tan, recently wrote a book and asked me to write something in the front of his book end of last year before his book was published. I am not a promoter of any book but I think I will get his book(to show support and to learn how to earn extra money online, especially thru blogging!!) ... I have to say sorry to him as I am too busy to read his transcript and place a good comment for his book. Sorry again, Alan. Otherwise, I might indirectly advetising my blog to the buyers/readers of his book!! Why not?! Haha. So, I was thinking of a suggestion from a reader ... why dont you write a book?! About what? Trading?? Kidding me?? Hmm ... about my life? You think anyone cares to pay money and read? Hmm ... to ... to ... what is the title of the book I am going to write again?? Haha ... may be, one day ... when I a publisher SERIOUSLY interested with my writing ... and ask me to write!! Then, I might consider ... serious!! Haha.
Trainer : As I have mentioned above, CNX has not replied to me after about weeks I applied-in and I do not think so they even read my personal CV. So, I have to think of ways to train myself to be a trainer? Do I need to? Hmm ... I am just 3-year-old in market. Too young and raw, man.
Business : This is still hanging in my mind ... you see, before I came to KL, I have planned to increase the number of my tuition classes, get many to know that I am good in teaching Maths(A-level), establish myself there in Klang Valley, and invest in opening a tuition-center nearby with a tuition-operator-friend of mine!! It is still pending ... as I am still consider 'new' there. I m just one-year-old here. Give me 3 years, I should be known by many as a good Math-lecturer and students should be flocking looking for me for tuition. I believe I could do this well ... and succeed, one day(in 3 years time)
Do read Rich Dad, Poor Dad(RDPD). I am venturing into all 4-quadrants ... full-time job(lecturing), part-time income(tuition), investment(learning and coaching) and business(tuition center or training center). Yup, I believe in working hard, hope I am working smart. I also hope I could inspire young-ones that if an 40-yr-old person could start from ground zero, the young ones - with sheer hardwork and diligence - will certainly make it much better than me. I am still moving in a long winding uncertain road.
That could be the road to financial freedom for me. At the moment, I enjoyed almost everything I am currently doing. I like my teaching job(I love Maths since young, ok?), I like jotting down my thoughts in my blog(and share with those who appreciate my struggle!) and I like to inspire the younger ones to ... START EARLY. START NOW. I am proud of my 7-turtles who came to me, asking me to guide them in investing/trading. They will succeed one day ... I believe. By the age of 40, I wont be surprise that few of them will do very well, financially. By then, I m certainly a proud teacher. I have always been a proud Maths teacher. Afterall, how one could stay in a line for 20+ yrs tho it is not so well-paid, right?
Just a sharing of what I m currently doing or planning to do ... re-enhancing my goals, to myself. Make a goal-planning and commit to your plans fully.
Good luck. Night
AirAsia: AIRASIA BHD's earnings surged 835% to RM316.55 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM33.87 million a year ago while it was upbeat about its operations based on the current forward booking trend.
To be updated : Alam ,E&O ,Jaks ,KimLun ,Malton
Muhibah : At support too. Time to re-consider? The risk is high-la. How?
Parkson : At support ... time to collect?
WCT : At the level RM2.96 again. I remembered RM3 as it was months ago when I was using WCT as an example to show my 'turtles' on reading broker reports!! Yes, fundamentally reading those reports, what we should be looking for and such. The situations are different now - WCT's exposure in middle-east becoming a huge risk to their order-book(and future profits projected).
9.40 am : I am attending a Math-workshop for all Maths lecturer!! KLCI up this morning as it was pushed way too low yesterday but it is reversing again as that big-ego Mr Gaf decided to kill all his people there. God bless him.
1.25 pm : KLCI up 4.5 points, I saw SPSetia up today?
3.15 pm : I am having a sort-of training which would not help in my teaching of Maths!! Arrghh ... it is a two-full-day workshop and 'costing' me RM1k for my losses in my cancellation of my tuition classes!! Arrghh ...
9.10 pm : Just came from a free CNY's dinner by company. Nice.
Many rebounded today and showing signs of rebounding. KNM and AirAsia rebounded strongly today too.
KLCI at 1489.27
I was reading news instead of business related articles! Hehe
News : A robbery in Subang Jaya(using BMW). My wife told me that she was interviewed by a reporter when she was there at Taipan, Hai-O shop(she was buying some supplements - I wont touch Hai-O stock)!! It was near Public Bank(not Maybank), actually. As they took her picture, she wondered if she will be in the paper! haha.
TEH : My wife really appeared in a Chinese paper(China Press - Friday). Haha.
News : Legoland at NusaJaya. Yup, I will be one of the visitors as my kids will certainly love the place. Expecting to open end of 2012, I can wait.
News : What?? We are not allowed to be naked at OUR own apartment, simply because some 'miang' lady who is staying opposite our unit and 'accidentally' seen our naked body could sue us for indecent exposure? WTF ... pity the young man. I am always in my underwear at home, ok? Haha.
News : Quake in NZ ... the worst natural disaster there in 80 years.
I seldom read news, so I do not really know what is going on!!
1.11 am : Just done my work. Time to rest. DOW down 80 points. Night.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 24 February 2011 17:32
KUALA LUMPUR: YTL CORPORATION BHD's net profit after taxation and non-controlling interests rose 4.6% to RM443.1 million (US$145.3 million) in the first half ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM423.7 million (US$138.9 million) a year ago, underpinned by the key utilities and cement divisions.
YTL Corp said on Thursday, Feb 24 profit before taxation increased 8.5% to RM1.104 billion (US$362.2 million) compared to RM1.018 billion (US$333.7 million).
The group recorded a 13.3% growth in revenue to RM8.90 billion (US$2.919 billion) for the 1H compared to RM7.857 billion (US$2.576 billion).
YTL group managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh Sock Ping said the growth over the 1H ended Dec 31, 2010 was driven primarily by strong performance in the key utilities and cement divisions.
“In other areas, the re-organisation of our property development and hotels businesses is ongoing and is intended, upon completion, to streamline the Group’s operations in those spaces.
“We also continue to see good development of our ‘YES’ 4G mobile internet with voice service, launched in November last year, and are focused on further developing our coverage network and range of devices,” he said.
Yeoh said YTL Corp also proposed a subdivision of every one existing 50 sen share into five 10 sen shares “to increase the affordability, liquidity and attractiveness of YTL Corp’s shares to potential investors, as well as our existing shareholders”.
YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD’s revenue rose 11.4% in 1H ended Dec 31, 2010 to RM7.061 billion (US$2.315 billion) on-year; profit before taxation increased by 11.3% to RM738.7 million (US$242.2 million). Net profit after taxation and non-controlling interests increased 10.5% to RM532.1 million (US$174.5 million) this year over RM481.4 million (US$157.8 million) a year ago.
YTL Cement’s 1H revenue rose 9.9% to RM1.023 billion (US$335.6 million) from RM931.2 million (US$305.3 million) a year ago. Net profit after taxation and non-controlling interests increased 22.8% to RM154.4 million (US$50.6 million) from RM125.7 million (US$41.2 million) a year ago.
“The improvements in financial performance were due mainly to higher demand for cement in the CONSTRUCTION industry and consolidation of the results of the Batu Tiga Quarry group of companies which YTL Cement acquired during the 2010 financial year,” it said.
However, YTL Land’s revenue fell to RM41.4 million in the 1H ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM181.4 million a year ago. Net profit after taxation and non-controlling interests was RM5.4 million over RM11.0 million last year.
TEH : More selling of YTLLand will be seen tmr.
“The decline was due to lower revenue and profit recognition from the property development and construction segments and changes in the timing of launches of new projects,” it said.
Meanwhile, YTL e-Solutions recorded a 31.7% growth in revenue to RM29.9 million for the 1H ended Dec 31, 2010 and net profit after taxation and non-controlling interests of RM8.9 million, up 90.8% over RM4.7 million a year ago.
1. MISC - RSI 14.72
2. KNM - RSI 26.81
3. YTL - RSI 13.45
4. Kulim - N/A (split)
5. Genting - RSI > 30
6. RHBCap - RSI 28.19
7. SPSetia - RSI 30.77
8. KLK - RSI > 30
9. PPB - RSI >30
10. Naim - RSI >30
11. IJM - RSI 29.11
12. PBBank - RSI near 40
13. IJM-wc - RSI 27.21
14. SPSetia-wb - RSI 30.79
15. MudaJaya - RSI >30
16. BStead - RSI >30
17. KYM - RSI 29.15
18. Supermax - RSI >30
19. TDM - RSI 29.64
20. PEnergy - RSI 29.36
21. Unisem - RSI 24.48
22. PMetal - RSI 30.82
23. Muhibah - RSI 29.97
24. KimLun - RSI near 40
25. SIME - RSI >30
The winner is YTL. The most extremely oversold stocks in our today's top-losers. Congrats. With all the indicators pointing downwards, it broken whatever so-called supports which did not support her downfall. Next level to watch at RM6.87. Do tyr to find out why YTL is having such a huge selling-pressure before applying "Be greedy when others in fear".
Note : Cypark retracing, finally. One of the best IPO performer.
Worth noting : DRBHicom, MahSing, AirAsia, YTLLand and many more uptrending stocks start to give way today, crumbling down in fears.
Note : All the five are in my stalk-list.
Tags: Axiata Group Bhd Genting Bhd IJM Corp Bhd Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd Transmile Group Bhd. TSH Resources Bhd
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 24 February 2011 07:56
KUALA LUMPUR: Stocks on Bursa Malaysia could continue to see cautious trade on Thursday, Feb 24 as sentiment continues to be dampened by the weak overnight close on Wall Street, surge in oil prices and unrest in oil producer Libya.
On Wall Street, US stocks dropped for a second straight session on Wednesday as Libya's violence sent oil prices up briefly to $100 a barrel and tech shares sank, adding credence to calls for a market correction.
Reuters reported oil futures jumped to their highest since October 2008 amid worries about supply disruptions in Libya, a top oil producer. Late in the day, oil eased off the day's highs, helping stocks trim losses.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 107.01 points, or 0.88 percent, at 12,105.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 8.04 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,307.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 33.43 points, or 1.21 percent, to 2,722.99.
Stocks to watch on Bursa Malaysia after the barrage of corporate results include GENTING BHD , IJM Corp Bhd, Axiata Group Bhd, TSH RESOURCES BHD , KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD and TRANSMILE GROUP BHD .
The Edge FinancialDaily reports that PLUS Expressway Bhd, the country's biggest toll road operator, obtained its shareholders' approval yesterday for the RM23 billion takeover bid by its major shareholders UEM Group Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), despite over 100 minority shareholders claiming the EGM was "illegal" and walking out halfway.
The Edge FinancialDaily reports that brownfield oil and gas outfit PETRA ENERGY BHD is likely to post losses for the fourth quarter of 2010 even with crude oil prices around US$100 again.
Also in The Edge FinancialDaily is the report that Malaysia's inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January on the back of higher costs of food, transport and utilities. It is higher than December's 2.2% and the highest in 20 months.
Genting Bhd’s net profit surged 89.6% to RM465.43 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM245.4 million a year ago.
Revenue rose 76% to RM4.086 billion from RM2.320 billion. Earnings per share were 12.57 sen compared with 6.64 sen while it proposed a final dividend of 4.5 sen.
It said the higher revenue was mainly from the leisure and hospitality division with the commencement of operations of Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore, during the first quarter of 2010.
As for FY10, its earnings rose 110.9% to RM2.202 billion from RM1.044 billion while revenue surged 71% to RM15.194 billion from RM8.893 billion. Group revenue rose by 71% to record a new high of RM15.19 billion in FY2010 (FY2009: RM8.89 billion), while group profit before tax rose by 74% to post a new high of RM4.39 billion in FY2010 (FY2009: RM2.53 billion).
IJM Corp’s earnings rose 58% to RM132.19m in the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM83.64 million a year ago, boosted by its property and plantations sector. Revenue dipped 3.7% to RM901.34 million from RM936.31 million. Earnings per share were 9.78 sen compared with 6.32 sen. IJM said the lower revenue was mainly due to mainly to the construction and property divisions.
Axiata posted net loss of RM367.04 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2011 compared with a net profit of RM558.28 million a year ago, mainly due to impairment recorded in the current quarter.
Group loss after tax was RM260.8 million, down by 143.3% from profit after tax of RM602.4 million reported in 4Q09.Operating revenue was RM4.016 billion compared with RM3.755 billion a year ago.
For FY10, it posted net profit of RM1.77 billion which was attributable to the owners of the company versus RM1.65 billion in FY09. Profit after tax was RM2.116 billion compared with RM1.756 billion in FY09.
TSH Resources’ earnings surged 116% to RM44.22 million in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 from RM20.47 million, boosted by the robust performance of its Indonesian plantation. It said this was despite revenue had declined by 12.8% to RM247.44 million from RM283.88 million. Earnings per share were 10.8 sen compared with 5.01 sen. The board recommended a final single tier dividend of six sen for 2010.
Kossan’s net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 rose 21.4% to RM29.45 million from RM24.25 million a year ago, driven by the expansion in the company’s gloves division with better product mix and margin.
Revenue rose 11% to RM252.97 million from RM227.75 million. Earnings per share were 9.18 sen while net assets per share was RM1.40.
For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2010, Kossan’s net profit recorded an increase of 76.1% to RM118.59 million from RM67.33 million a year ago. Revenue rose 24.6% to RM1.05 billion from RM842.14 million.
Tan Chong’s net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 rose 21.8% to RM52.07 million from RM42.73 million a year earlier, boosted by across the board price discounting to clear 2010 inventories ahead of new model introductions in 2011.
Revenue for the quarter rose 16% to RM835.36 million from RM720.19 million a year ago. Earnings per share were 7.98 sen, while net assets per share was RM2.57.
Beleaguered Transmile Group Bhd faces suspension with effect from March 3 and delisting on March 7 for failing to submit a regularisation plan to the regulators for approval by Feb 22.
Transmile failed to submit the revamp plan to Securities Commission or Bursa Malaysia Securities by the Feb 22 deadline. However, it has until March 2 to submit an appeal to Bursa Securities
TEH : This is my daily morning reading. It is taken from theedgemalaysia.com
KLCI is becoming more volatile where one may see the difference of 10 points in a day or two index movements.
I will be too busy to monitor anything today(perhaps busy till April). So, it is a buy-n-hold. If didnt recover, it is cut-cut. This month's performance could be very bad.
AirAsia : Back in radar as it dives ... due to crude-oil prices.
10.10 am : A peep at Bursa, ooopppsss ... RED again. Arrghh ... cut more?
IJM : In deep red and below RM6 now. IJM-wc at 2.35 level. Downtrending now.
SPSetia : Below RM6, downtrending. I have cut her off last week. OUCH.
1.15 pm : It is like game-over again ... the volatility is very high. UP and DOWN. Arrghh ...
3.40 pm : OUCH. KLCI down almost 10 points. I added Dialog and MHB. Crazy selling. Many registered good profits, is the selling justified and over-done? I dont know ...
SPSetia-wb : The fav warrant at 1.45 now.
4.05 pm : Very heavy rain, could not travel to KLCC for a tuition class. So, I am stranded in college to complete some of my paper-work while watching KLCI bleeding ... gosh!! It is down 13 points now. OUCH.
KNM : Down 40cents today in a heavy sell-down due to not so good results. That I could accept but why selling of IJM which given good profits??
KLCI at 1497, below the psychological 1500 level.
9.20 pm : I took a nap, to continue to work. I m dropping here to check on the waterfalls - this time there are more stocks breaking many supports. The theory of BEAR-rally is back. The exit of foreign-funds, coupled with over-valuations of markets and risk of inflation. Suddenly, we no longer talk about election-rally ... we forgotten how bullish we were back in Jan.
I have a short-poll last week, generating 60% of readers who voted are BULLISH. If I am going to have another short-poll this week .. perhaps the BULLISH camp might want to change their point of views? That is how un-predictable markets are.
In the last minute, some selling seen to push KLCI down by more than 20 points!! The bull is killed?
While I have cleared and trimmed many(with losses), I am still thick in actions. Those bought into CWs will be badly burnt when there is such sell-down. Even many warrants are doing badly. In bear markets, these instruments should be avoided. But as greed as its dark-side, I bought more of MHB-ce when it dived more than 20% today. See if it will rebound?
Time to get back to work ... funny, if you listen to those broker-houses, you will start to be bearish and the bear will grip you soon.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Today will be another sell-down. Those holding CWs will be badly burnt. Ouch.
YTLLand : Ready to buy more at 1.65 level.
9.05 am : A short peep to see how red KLCI is. I am wearing very RED. KLCI dropping 10 points in early trade.
KLCI still down 7 points. Yes, I have cleared substantially and holding to UEMLand and YTLLand. As for CWs. I m bulish on O&G(crude oil at USD93) but Dialog, Kencana and MHB in red. Even the profitting AMMB is in red today.
WCT : Went below RM3 just now. WCT-wb went below 0.70 level.
12.20 pm : Taking a peep again before lunch and classes till 8 pm today. Wow. I am working too hard to collect bullets but shooting blanks at the moment.
9.55 pm : KLCI at the magical 1511 again. I worked from 8 am till 8 pm. Tired.
MahSing-cc : Welcome and added her in my cc-list. Will start collecting her.
Kencana-cc : Cleared off for a loss, as I m holding to Dialog-cc and MHB-ce for oil-stocks.
YTL : High in my stalk-list.
Crude oil at USD96 now.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
IJMPlant-wa : RSI at 20. Reversing from RM1.30, at 0.85. MA200d support at 0.775.
YTL : RSI 21. Broken 7.55. CLosed at 7.50. Next level to watch at 7.45(not far away). Is it almost time to BUY? It shows a reversal in trend now.
WC : Sorry, I m too busy to look into it. If you are bullish, then think of buying. If you are bearish then think of selling. Gosh .. no one could tell you that. I wish someone could tell me why there is another sell-down tho many registering good profits.
KLCI down 14 points and many of my stocks hurt badly. OUCCCCCCH.
12.40 pm : Terrible-la ... I didnt ask them to sell. I am now stuck inside, how? Never mind, we could always say ... I am a long term investors. LOL
For newbies and many more in markets ---- do read HERE (by Alpha Chart)
For my turtles, it is a MUST to read, ok?
4.25 pm : 89 gainers, 899 losers. What a statistic, a ratio of 10 to 1 losers. KLCI still down by 10 points, HSI losing 500 points. You get me right, 500 points and it has been some time we seen such a sell-down in HKSE.
WHO is selling? Hmm ...
Let's check The Edge's "Asian markets fall on Mid-east tensions"
KUALA LUMPUR: Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, Feb 22, racking up losses of between 1.3% to 2.47% at midday on concerns about the Middle East with rising tensions in Libya, while an earthquake in New Zealand weighed on Australian bankers and insurers.
The mood at the Asian markets was also dampened after Moody’s Investor Services changed its outlook on the Japan's Aa2 sovereign rating to negative from stable on Tuesday, warning that government policies may not be enough to rein in the country's huge public debt.
The FBM KLCI fell 0.81% or 12.43 points to 1,513.42 at the mid-day break, weighed down by banking and plantation stocks. The broader market was weak, with losers thumping gainers by 853 to 67, while 158 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 1.01 billion shares valued at RM936.59 million.
The ringgit weakened 0.48% to 3.0500 versus the greenback; crude palm oil gained RM1 per tonne to RM3,657, crude oil rose US$6.75 per barrel to US$92.95 while gold eased US$3.20 per troy ounce to US$1,403.25.
Airlines also suffered as crude oil prices soared on worries of a wider disruption in supplies from OPEC countries following the unrest in Libya. AirAsia fell 13 sen to RM2.63 and MAS lost six sen to RM2.02 on account of the rising crude oil prices.
AirAsia : lost 22 cents to close at RM2.54.
WCT : Touched 3.02, bounces up to 3.10.
YTL : Went below 7.50, at 7.52 now. Extreme oversold.
Cut-loss : It is not easy to cut-loss, and it is much harder to ask ANYONE to cut-loss. Everyone in market(to trade) should know that there is a level that we just need to cut-loss(unless we are still bullish on it and market).
SPSetia : Dropped 17 cents to close at RM6.16 now. I have cut huge losses on SP-cc and yesterday was my last wounds. OUCH.
UEMLand : Closed at 2.80, moving back to my cost-level soon. In fact, it touched 2.75 today. I failed to take-profits(due to greediness) at RM3.
O&G : Crude oil above USD92 due to the tensions in the middle-east. MHB, Dialog and Kencana are in red. I am holding to their CWs and added Dialog-cc today.
10.40 pm : DOW down, USO up 6%, highest in a day. Thanks to the unrest in Middle-east and North Africa.
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Monday, 21 February 2011 17:23
KUALA LUMPUR: The DAP say the Employees Provident Fund’s (EPF) declaration of a 5.8 % dividend or RM21.61 billion payout for 2010 as compared to the 5.65% in 2009 is inadequate.
It said on Monday, Feb 21 the 5.8% division did not commensurate with the 40% increase in EPF gross investment income of RM24.06 billion as compared to 2009's RM17.22 billion.
“As compared to 2009’s 5.65% dividend, this increase of only 0.15% to 5.8% dividend does not reflect the economic recovery of Malaysia in 2010 with an expected growth rate of 7.2%,” it said.
The DAP said that despite a recession in 2009 with negative growth rate of -1.7%, the EPF could still pay 5.65%.
“It does not make sense that with an expected growth rate of 7.2% there is only a marginal increase in dividend rate to 5.8%,” it said.
Yes, everyone is speaking about the 5.8% dividend given ... hmm ... I am not allowed to withdraw my EPF for investment. I do not know how I could use the EPF money to good effect. Yes, a/c II could be used to buy my house in near future but the bigger amount is in a/c I, which generating less than 6% under EPF.
I will be too busy to write today and will only look into market at night. Whatever I bought, I could hold for a while. Will only clear UEMLand at 3.20 level, buy WCT at 3.00 level and hold to my YTLLand.
Ocean Deep - A nice love song for those in love.
Property-stocks : Malton and E&O moving lower.
Earning-reports : I am busy looking into the latest released results of stocks I am monitoring.
10.05 am : Oh boy ... KLCI being bashed again, dropping 11 points
UEMLand : While I was smart enough to take profits for my cc, I did not clear(even half) of my UEMLand. It is dropping to 2.83 level now(from the high of 3.07).
Monday, February 21, 2011
I was sharing with my two turtles, EK and PT last night and we checked charts till 12.30 am. So, I am lack of sleep, extreme tireness and could not work well now. Cramped.
WCT : RSI 35.8. Black hammer formed. Touched 3.07. Wait at RM3.00
YTL : RSI at 24.2. Black hammer formed. Touched 7.55 level, strong support.
TEH : The unrest in middle-east giving the risk-factor to these construction companies. FEAR is around now. Time to be greedy again?
New call-warrants : CIMB-cm and MHE-ce. Buy-n-hold.
11.20 am : Monday morning ... craziness resumed.
New Call-warrants by AM
KUALA LUMPUR: AmBank Group has proposed to issue eight new structured call warrants on various companies that will be listed on Bursa Malaysia today.
Announcing the proposed issuance of call warrants to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, AmInvestment Bank Bhd, the investment banking arm of AmBank, said it would issue up to 100 million European style cash settled call warrants for eight listed companies.
The warrants would be for Dialog Group Bhd (Dialog CW), IJM Plantations Bhd (IJM Plnt CW), Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB CW), Lion Industries Corp Bhd (Lion Ind CW), Tradewinds Plantation Bhd (TWS Plnt CW), Time dotCom Bhd (TimeCom CA), Sime Darby Bhd (Sime CW) and Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB CW).
Dialog CW has an exercise ratio of four warrants to one Dialog share, and a strike price of RM2.
IJM Plnt CW has an exercise ratio of five warrants to one IJM Plantation share and strike price of RM2.95.
MHB CW has an exercise ratio of 10 warrants to one MHB share and exercise price of RM5.80.
Lion Ind CW has an exercise ratio of four warrants to one Lion Industries share. The warrants will have a strike price of RM2.
TWS Plnt CW will have an exercise ratio of six warrants to a Tradewinds Plantation share. It will have an exercise price of RM3. Sime CW will have an exercise ratio of 10 to one Sime Darby share. Its exercise price will be at RM9.28.
MRCB CW has an exercise ratio of four to one MRCB share and a strike price of RM2.20. For TimeCom CA, given Time dotCom’s proposed capital reduction and set-off of its share premium account, among other corporate proposals, TimeCom’s exercise price would be adjusted to RM4.75, while its exercise ratio would be five warrants to one Time dotCom share. All the call warrants will have an issue price of 15 sen and expire on Feb 20, 2012.
Commenting on the issuance of the eight new call warrants, AmInvest director/head of equity derivatives Ng Ee Fang said global economies and the FBM KLCI had a buoyant start for 2011. The recent retracement in regional markets on external jitters might provide good entry opportunities for investors looking to get on board, she said.
“For this issuance, there is a focus on commodities, specifically crude oil and palm oil, both of which are the key exports of Malaysia. Malaysia is expected to benefit from rising global commodity prices, as it is a net exporter of crude oil and major producer of palm oil in the global vegetable oils market,” she said.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 18, 2011.
1.25 pm : KLCI recovers from the morning-sickness.
SPSetia-cc : Slow bleed ... cut-off.
Dialog-cc : Doing well, might add.
UEMLand-cc : Moving lower today as expected.
WCT : Below 3.10 now. Noted.
4.30 pm : KLCI up, pushed by Maybank and Tenaga.
Double-K : KFC still moving higher and Kwantas flew off today.
Goreng-stocks : I noticed that HWGB dives ... together with MANY goreng-empty-shell stocks. Wow .. syndicates decide to exit today with huge profits?
Sunday, February 20, 2011
As the saying goes ..."Make the trend your friend" ... so, you will not see me wanting to be stucked with my losing-stocks for long as I will have to cut-it-off. OUCH.
TEH : I am riding on Dialog-cc(breakout) and MHB-cc. Will be adding Kencana-cc and Sapcres-cc soon.
Here is a simple strategy to share. Say you are bullish in the outlook of the overall market and a sector. Take O&G as an example. Lets say you have RM10k to trade but dont know which O&G counter to grab. So, here is what I could think of what a person could do : grab the call-warrants!!
Buy and hold 4-call warrants related to uptrending O&G counters. Let us divide RM10k into 4. That will be RM2.5k each for call-warrants. Lets say ... I am going to place RM2.5k into each of Dialog-cc, Kencana-cc, MHB-cc and Sapcres-cc.
When to buy? One may choose to buy at the same day!! What the heck with TA, anyway? Haha.
When to sell? Hmm ... interesting. That you decide it yourself. As what I could think off, say ... sell when it moves 50% above cost-price(or at resistance or when expiry less than XX days) or sell if it dip below 10% of cost-price. No trading needed. Just buy-n-hold ... monitor the selling-points.
That is just a piece of my mind. I have many of these silly strategies but who knows, many may profit from reading these line and applying it! I might be 'famous' for introducing such a strategy. Haha. Ok ok ... I over-simplified my strategy in buying my O&G call-warrants. I have moved in MHB-cc and Dialog-cc. So, logically ... I am aiming for Kencana-cc and Sapcress-cc to complete my collections! Hehe.
Good luck. If you have benefit from my blog, please consider to contribute to me. Say, by donating a school-bag for my boy! Haha.
But, if you lose money as you follow my calls/strategies l... err .... sorry-la. Dont curse me and read the disclaimer!
Dow 12,391 S&P500 1,343 Nasdaq 2,833 Gold 1,388
Markets were up across the board again this week and the S&P 500 has officially doubled since the economic crisis intra-day low of 666. Wow.
If you haven’t already checked out our awesome new high tech stock research tools, we invite you to take a short video tour or simply get started: Go to Wall St. Watchdog >>
Now, for the 15 reasons markets moved this week:
•President Obama released the 2012 budget. Assuming the world doesn’t fulfill Mayan prophesy and end in 2012, we’ll have a ton of deficits to deal with next year. At least the deficits aren’t slowing mergers and acquisitions rumors from heating up.
•Walmart got downgraded, but Netflix and Starbucks made moves. JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) says Walmart’s (NYSE:WMT) is losing their grip on consumers hit by the economic crisis, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) are teaming up to put streaming media on Android (NASDAQ:GOOG), and a Wall Street research note has Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) getting into bed with Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). Don’t Miss: Have No Fear: The New Media Bubble is Just Getting Started.
•Oil (NYSE:USO) continued to lose emotional demand after Mubarak stepped down. Looks like traders need another issue in the Middle East to keep prices rocketing in the near term. Here’s Why Inflation and Supply Worries Are Driving Commodities
•Retail Sales disappointed after lots of recent juice. Wall Street doesn’t like to cool off, but the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.3% versus hopes for 0.5%. Although that’s still a superficial improvement, This Chart Shows Why Consumers are Depressed.
•NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) and and Deutsche Boerse AG are attempting to get hitched. The two exchange operators are aiming to create the largest exchange in the world. Don’t Miss: Will This Deal Renew Merger Lust for Exchanges.
•Gold (NYSE:GLD) caught a whiff of global inflation. China (NYSE:FXI) and the UK said inflation continues to hit their economies. Here’s Why Inflation and Supply Worries Are Driving Commodities
•Earnings keep coming in stronger. Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) got Wall Street giddy with prospective increases in business spending, bellwether teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) crushed earnings, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is selling a lot more bundles, and Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) is rocking on ag strength.
•Merger Mania! Family Dollar Stores (NYSE:FDO) caught a go-private bid, and Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ:GENZ) finally closed the deal to be bought by French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE:SNY). Don’t Miss: Sector Spotlight: Discount Retailers Become Acquisition Targets.
•Gold (NYSE:GLD) stayed up for more than 24 hours. The US Producer Price Index indicates input costs are rising with inflation, and Gold bugs love that word.Accumulate Gold but Be Cautious on Silver.
•Macro Economic data was solid. The Philly Fed Index was on fire, CPI was fine, and initial jobless claims were as expected. Here’s How Inflation Breaks Down for Each Sector in Today’s CPI Data.
•Stocks rocked. Utilities (NYSE:XLU) had a strong day and tech favorite Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) popped 8.7% after raising revenue guidance. Don’t Miss: Utility ETFs: The Top 5 Exchange Traded Funds for Your Utility Investing List >>
•Oil (NYSE:USO) popped on news Iran intends to send vessels to the Suez Canal.Protests in Bahrain also gave oil traders something to bid about. Must See: Oil ETFs: The Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds for Your Oil Investing List >>
•Deals continue to warm up the phone lines of investment bankers. Recent IPO Demand Media ended the day up 5.4% while recent IPO Nielson Holdings ended the day up 2.52%. LinkedIn and Pandora are coming soon. What’s on the horizon? Check out: A Sneak Peek at the 5 Leaders of the Coming Social IPO Bubble>>
•Technology is driving the economic recovery. Obama sat at dinner last night beside Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and Steve Jobs of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), while across the table from Eric Schmidt of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Larry Ellison of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL). Does it get any more powerful than that roundtable discussion? Don’t Miss: Innovation Nation: Obama and Tech Bellwethers Must Strike NOW>>
•Precious metals rose as Silver (NYSE:SLV) hit a 52-week high on a breakout. With a fear index increasing in the Middle East once again, there was a flight to safety on Wall Street. Must See: Silver in Breakout Mode but Silver Shares Lag>>
copied by TEH
Someone noticed that I bought call-warrants and most of it are 'cc', e-mail me and asked why. Such as SPSetia-cc, UEMLand-cc, Mudajaya-cc, DRBHcom-cc, Sapcres-cc, Kencana-cc, MHB-cc, PChem-cc, Dialog-cc and such. Haha.
note : I have taken out MMC-cc and MRCB-cc from my list. Dialog-cc is a new call-warrant which I added and grabbed some in day one. I am waiting for MahSing-cc. Maybe I should add BJCorp-cc in my list too.
p/s : They dont have AMMB-cc or CIMB-cc or AirAsia-cc currently traded(I know they expired la). So, I look into their cj. Yes, AMMB-cj, CIMB-cj and AirAsia-cj.
You see, I have a worksheet for 'cc' call-warrants listed in KLSE. If asked why 'cc' because I am monitoring too many!! So, if it is only the cc, it is easier for me to remember!! So, it is not really because they are of lower premiums or longer expiry date. To these two are my criteria too. You see, there were once I bought MHB-ca and got myself so messed-up and when I want to buy more of it, I've 'accidentally' bought MHB-cc. Arrghh ... MHB is ca la, not cc, I scolded myself for being careless. To avoid such mistakes(especially you want to have short punt), I stick to cc. We all have our strings of mistakes and we need to recognise it, create a system in order we will not repeat the similar mistakes, right? The mistakes may be small, but it is un-necessary. Trading is stressful enough, we do not need to add some challenges to our cramped brain!! Haha.
Poll-vote : The bull won ... many are bullish, some bearish view and some neutral. Wait a minute ... we have 3 spoilt votes. As usual, we will always have jokers who dont know wish to participate or have no idea what the heck the world is going on. Perhaps, they really dont understand the question such as ... what is a 'bull' or 'bear'. Hey, my turtles do ask me this term 'bull' and 'bear'. So, I wont be surprise that some newbies/novices dont know the terms, right?
Do you know the difference between volumes and turnovers traded in a day? Dont you laugh, we are supposed to share with those newbies ... that was a VALID question a turtle of mine asked. Haha.
11.15 am : Went to for another round to look for property around my area here in USJ.
Property 1 : A lelong double storey house at RM180k(very cheap!!). Set-back ... in-front of two petrol-station and it is t-junction. As it is lelong-house, we could not view the internal. Besides, I believe many wilol bid for it and the price could easily fetching RM220-RM250 level. Good-points ... near Mydin/Giant, also Chee-Wen chinese school. Nearby makan-shops.
Property 2 : Corner-house, USJ1 and well-maintained. Not-lelong, so I called the agent to ask about the price. I was shocked when he said RM488k(can discount a bit la if you are really interested, sir). Way beyond my RM200k budget(as it is corner-house and well-maintained, it is not logical to think of it at RM200k, so I was expecting RM350k to consider). When he asked me my budget, I said RM300k, he just said ... not-possible, sir.
Property 3 : Shop-apartment near my current staying place(USJ14), should be cheap but no-guard, walk-up, no covered-carpark, no balcony/patio, no swimming pool etc etc. It is for lower-income people(like me) to stay. So, I am kinda excited. Called the agent but no one answered. I am thinking of budget RM100k(and below) for it. If it is below RM100k, I will grab her. Should I use my EPF and cash to pay-off the whole thing? Then, I dont have to think of the monthly instalment!! The answer is an obvious NO. I rather use the cash to pay my credit-cards!! Take home-loan as it is still 'cheap'. Also, I rather use my cash to buy propety-stock(s). Haha. Using EPF to buy her? Hmm ...
Property 4 : In my mind, I am thinking of IJMLand's Canal City. The mimimal price for first phase of the huge development around RM400k. ouch. Again, if it is worth looking into it, to stay and as investment point of view, I wont mind considering. I still believe landed property in nearby Subang Jaya/Shah Alam area could appreciate further in future. So, I told my wife to be patient ... see if my property-stocks could do very well this year. So, I m still in the buy-property-stocks-not-property mode.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
DOW up another 73 points. Are you BULLISH or BEARISH for this year? I am talking about end of the year, not next week. Do you think by end of 2011, KLCI above current level or lower? Click the vote ------> here.
AMMB 3Q earnings up 21.2pct to RM325.31m from RM268.47m a year ago
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 18 February 2011 19:05
KUALA LUMPUR: AMMB HOLDINGS BHD net profit for the third quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 rose 21.2% to RM325.31 million from RM268.47 million a year ago.
The higher net profit was mainly due impairment writeback on financial investment and doubtful sundry receivables of RM38.3 million and RM2.3 million respectively as compared to impairment loss of RM19.2 million and RM4.0 million for previous corresponding quarter.
AMMB said on Friday, Feb 18 that in addition, higher income was reported for the Islamic banking business, transfer from profit equalisation reserve and other operating income by RM27.4 million, RM6.6 million and RM4.9 million.
Revenue rose to RM1.82 billion from RM1.71 billion in 2009. Earnings per share was 10.83 sen while net assets per share was RM3.31.
For the nine months ended Dec 31, AMMB’s net profit rose 34% to RM1.03 billion from RM766.87 million, on the back of revenue RM5.3 billion, up from RM4.87 billion a year earlier.
AMMB group chief executive officer and managing director Cheah Tek Kuang said the group posted a record nine-months performance by staying focused on its strategies of profitable and sustainable growth, and income diversification.
“We remain on course to achieving faster non-interest income growth, with higher contributions from foreign exchange, derivatives, and assurance businesses,” he said.
Commenting on the one-notch rating upgrade of AmBank (M) Bhd (AmBank) and AmInvestment Bank Bhd (AmInvestment) ratings by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) in December last year, Cheah said it reflected AmBank Group’s improved financial performance and asset quality, preserved capitalisation, and strong domestic franchise in investment banking.
“With our robust nine-month results, we are on track to deliver the fourth consecutive year of record performance, and in line with our aspirations for full FY2011.
“This is a testimony to the quality and strength of AMMB’s management team and its people,” he said.
Highlights of AMMB’s nine-month performance:
Retail Banking: Profit after tax (PAT) increased 12.7% to RM 450.1 million attributed to lower impairments. Income growth was driven by staying focused on profitable segments and pricing for risk despite the industry continues to experience uneconomic pricing in selected segments such as mortgage.
Business Banking: PAT improved 18.2% to RM 148.8 million backed by good income growth from lending to stable sectors, trade and transactional businesses and strong customer focus.
Corporate and Institutional Banking: PAT grew 23.0% to RM 153.5 million with higher contributions from international business and lower allowances.
Investment Banking: PAT down 13.1% at RM 90.5 million amidst a subdued debt market, and a higher income reported during 9MFY10 partly due to a one-time gain on disposal of a bond holding.
Markets: PAT rose 70.7% to RM 151.2 million. Foreign exchange (FX) and derivatives business delivered greater income contribution, with the division continuing to expand its product offerings.
Life Assurance: PAT transferred to the group’s shareholders surged above 100% to RM 51.6 million. Higher income was supported by larger fund assets from an enhanced agency network, better product bundling and higher cross-selling activities.
General Insurance: PAT increased 22.9% to RM 46.2 million as gross written premium grew from enhanced up- and cross-selling initiatives, and an established distribution network.
TEH : I am collecting AMMB-cj. See if it will surge next week with such good news and bullish market.
9.55 pm : Finally I could sit down to rest ... tiring day.
Too tired to look at anything. Tmr then. Night.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Loss aversion : There are many of us will try to avoid loss. Seriously, it is NOT easy to take-losses and move on. We will be admitting 'mistakes' and fear to be seen as losers. That FEAR is great, and it is greater than losing money!! As we all grow to be a better traders, cut-loss is a part of the game. What is important that I need to learn is STICK to the cut-loss point rather than hoping it will rebound. It will most probably not.
I am mentioning it here as last night I was looking at some downtrending stocks such as JCY or many more with no rebound in-sight in near future. Actually, we dont know ... and we should not time the market. What we should do is place a SELL(exit point) before buying. Most of us just failed to do that. Of coz I am also refering to myself. Even with plans, we failed to work the plan. We just failed. Hence, the losses becoming greater and our funds stucked into the market, only to lose out in other stocks which moving uptrend!! That is what I meant by opportunity costs when I was sharing with my turtles.
I am pointing these out for all to ponder. Should we hold on to our losing-positions only to console ourselves that as long as we did not sell(for a loss), we are not losing YET?
TEH : This is to respond to a reader who asked me about JCY. Sorry, it is bearish. Unless you want to HOLD till it recovers? That could takes months!!
11.10 am : KLCI up 6 points.
Welcoming Dialog-cc, to add into my cc group. Thanks.
JCY : At 0.71 vs 0.715 ... hmm ....
EAH : Touched 0.42 ... hmmm ...
MEGB : Mild buyings seen.
WCT : Down below 3.20 now. Noted.
YTLLand : At 1.89, looking at 1.85 to collect.
UP : Coastal, KFC, KimLun
Taken from Star-biz
“In our view, Malaysian contractors should be minimally impacted by the political riots in the affected Middle Eastern nations given their minimal exposure there,” said OSK Research.
OSK Research said that of the five construction companies under its coverage, WCT was the most exposed, with Middle Eastern jobs comprising 50% of its RM3.2bil orderbook.
However, its exposure to Bahrain is limited to fit-out works for the Bahrain City Centre, which has an outstanding value of RM81mil.
“IJM on the other hand has less than RM100mil of its RM4bil orderbook from the Middle East. Management indicates that it has two outstanding jobs in Bahrain which are smallish in nature and very close to completion,” said OSK.
Gamuda recently completed the RM640mil Sitra Bridges project in Bahrain.
“Gamuda's construction of the airport in Qatar is close to completion. So Gamuda is also minimally affected,” said one construction analyst.
As for Ahmad Zaki and Sunway, both have no exposure in the Middle Eastern countries experiencing the political riots as their jobs are in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi respectively.
TEH : Perhaps that could be the reason(s) for the sell-down in WCT. Looking at RM3 critical point.
3.30 pm : KLCI up 10 points. Bullish AGAIN? Next day BEARISH again? Haha. Please decide. Click on my vote -----> Thanks.
5.00 pm : KLCI up 9.00 points today.
UEMLand-cc : Cleared all, took profits today. Still holding UEMland, the mommy.
Dialog-cc : Grabbed some today for short-ride.
DRBHcom-cc : Missed her ... saw it coming but too late.
10.15 pm : HSI up almost 300 points today. Bullish sentiment again.
KFC : Glad that KFC-wb rebounded finally. As I believe that will be follow-thru buying on Monday and Tuesday, I moved in at 1.60 average today.
EK : I spent about an hour plus to coach a turtle of mine after work(till 7.15 pm = EK, u owe me a dinner! Haha). Yes, he followed me to buy into UEMLand at 2.74 level and we are looking at what level we should be taking profits. I mentioned that I cleared all my cc today as I m moving into Dialog-cc and also MHB-cc. So, today it shows a reversal candle-stick sign. Not good but healthy correction as RSI at 65 level now. With another 2 days of profit-taking, at what level should we collect more(average up) ... and at what level should we be ready to take profits and run? Yes, I bought hugely into its mommy too and need to trim her when it is reaching resistance. At the moment, I am looking at 3.22 level(clearing half). We shall watch ... EK, watch.
In my opinion, it is VERY difficult to coach anyone to trade, especially I am such a novice too.
Dialog : Breakout with high volume. As its cc is a new baby, I want to ride on her. Average at 0.205. RSI at 69, waiting for 75 level.
IOICorp : No good news for this giant. SELL call now.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
GPacket : Closed at 0.71. It is back to its IPO value as in 2005 soon. The above is the monthly chart showing the huge waterfall ... while GPacket's fundamentally continues to deteriorate. The historical low at 0.565. Watch that level, I wont touch her anymore. I bought at RM1 before to trade.
JCY : Closed at 0.735, touched new low at 0.725 today. RSI at 28.76. Oh boy, one of the worst IPO with optimism overblown. I remember I bought it at 1.30 level, only to cut-loss. Many are still caught into her sinkhole ... should we cut-loss or average down? It is difficult to value a stock which in un-favourable sector. With the weakening of USD and coupled with the high competitions(lowering of prices = profit margin squeezed further), one could only guess how low this one could go. Will HDD be obsolete one day?
MEGB : Closed 1.77, new low. RSI at 23.23. master without skills? Seriously speaking, those bought during IPO and still holding to her would be very frustrated. When the foreign funds exited, reports written about how good its valuation. Also reports on how 'defensive' it is in education and health sector. Whatever the reports saying, time to throw cold-water on them.
Note : EAH closed at 0.44, reaching new low and its IPO value soon.
Written by Sharon Tan
Thursday, 17 February 2011 12:28
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices took a major tumble yesterday, following the knock-on effect from falling soybean oil prices. Soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have fallen for three consecutive days following news of improved crop prospects in South America.
CPO and soybean oil are rival edible oils and their prices move in tandem.
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives’ CPO futures for three-month forward delivery in May fell RM140, or 3.6%, to end at RM3,745 a tonne yesterday, from Monday’s close of RM3,885 a tonne.
The contract had opened the day RM70 lower at RM3,815 a tonne. It later touched a high of RM3,822 a tonne only to fall to a low of RM3,741 during the day before closing at RM3,745 a tonne.
The three-month forward contract had traded to a high of RM3,930 a tonne this year — the highest since the commodity rally in March 2008.
Last year, the three-month forward contract’s lowest price was RM2,250 a tonne on July 7.
The contract reached its highest ever at RM4,466 a tonne on March 4, 2008, before crashing to a low of RM1,331 a tonne on Oct 28 the same year, after the global financial crisis hit.
One futures trader said the CPO price tumble yesterday was a knock-on effect from falling soybean and soybean oil prices, which fell sharply this week.
The closure of the exchange on Tuesday for a public holiday may have aggravated the fall, as CPO prices reacted — in one day — to two days of sharp falls for soybean oil.
Asked if the market could expect CPO prices to continue spiralling down, the trader said, “We should not see the same [pace of] tumbling if the crops prices stay stable. I don’t think we will have a sharp fall today unless something happens in the soybean market.”
A plantation analyst said CPO prices are close to peaking although it is difficult to pin-point the price and time they will peak at.
“Barring weather circumstances, we might see CPO prices trending down at the end of 1Q or early 2Q. We expect supply to improve in the second half of the year.
“And there is a lack of catalysts for investors to be excited about. Everyone has heard of the RM3,800 a tonne level, so it is nothing new for investors. The market needs really bullish news in order for interest to pick up again,” he said.
Credit Suisse said in a report last week that CPO prices could not be sustained as speculative positions in soy, corn and palm are at record highs and CPO futures are vulnerable to profit-taking due to high foreign participation.
“We believe the current palm oil rally could be closer to its end. During the commodity rally of 2008, palm oil prices remained above RM4,000 for just two days. Palm oil prices at such a high level could result in a slowdown in demand as affordability in poorer countries would be affected adversely,” said Credit Suisse.
US soybean and soybean oil futures tumbled on Tuesday as traders decided to reduce risk exposure following reports of improved South American crop prospects.
On Tuesday, CBOT March soybean futures, the most active contract, were down 34¾ US cents or 2.5% at US$13.68 (RM41.72) a bushel. March soybean oil futures fell 1.15 US cents or 2% to 56.48 US cents a pound.
“With record projected Brazilian crops doing well and Argentina receiving beneficial rains, South American crops are looking bigger,” Joe Victor, a business development specialist with the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, was quoted as saying in a Dow Jones report.
Brazil and Argentina are the second and the third largest producers of soybeans behind the US, and are expected to relieve the strain on US supplies in the spring.
However, some analysts caution that it may be too early to turn bearish on palm oil or soybean oil, as supplies are still presently tight.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates US soybean carryover for the 2011 marketing year at 140 million bushels, down 11 million bushels, or 7%, from 151 million bushels a year earlier.
An Iowa State University report on Feb 15 said that supplies for the current marketing year imply that US carryover stocks in terms of number of weeks’ of supply may be the lowest on record. It said that this summer’s US soybean supplies are likely to be even tighter than the low points in the early 1970s and mid-1990s. The tight supplies are due to weather problems and the expanding demand for biofuels.
The report noted that this season’s expected growth in total use of US corn is almost all in the processing of corn for ethanol. It also added that much of the growth in demand for US soybeans is coming from China although the use of soybean oil for biodiesel is expected to expand due to the reinstatement of biodiesel tax credits.
Another factor to note is the major drought in China. The epicentre of China’s drought-stricken area is Shandong province, a major soybean and corn producer, which is now facing its worst drought in 200 years. China’s Agriculture Ministry estimated that the area affected by drought now covers some 19.5 million acres.
Last year, a massive drought in Russia had a major impact on wheat prices.
Palm oil stocks also remain tight, due to falling production and adverse weather conditions.
Last week the Malaysia Palm Oil Board announced that palm oil inventories had fallen to a six-month low of 1.42 million tonnes in January, attributed to lower palm oil yields, which dropped 20% year-on-year due to heavy rain and flooding.
Despite the fall in CPO prices, the Kuala Lumpur Plantation Index rose yesterday, closing 70.05 points higher at 7,932.04.
Plantation counters such as IOI Corp Bhd added 13 sen to close at RM5.71 while Kulim (M) Bhd also went up by 68 sen to close at RM14.38. Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd slipped two sen to RM21.86 and Hap Seng Plantations Bhd shaved off 10 sen to RM6.40. Sime Darby Bhd and Genting Plantations Bhd were unchanged at RM9.28 and RM8.10, respectively.
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 17, 2011
TEH : I have cleared all my plantation-stocks during the sell-down.
The three 'M's
MahSing : Taking a breather and time to move in?At 2.70, RSI at 79. Not buying yet.
MHB : Rebounded strongly after Sapcres and Kencana rebounded the day before that. It is testing new high at 6.53, which I do think it will breakout and continue its uptrend. So, I am riding on MHB-cc.
MPHB : RSI at 73, not moving in yet too.
So, from the three-M above, the only logical one is MHB, which is also playing in the O&G sector.
Have you voted? Click here ------------> Thanks.
The Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) has been accumulating shares in AMMB Holdings Bhd recently, likely driven by expectations that the banking group would post strong quarterly financial results.
According to filings with Bursa Malaysia, the pension fund owns a 12.93% stake in AMMB currently, up from 11.1% as at June 30, 2010.
EPF bought a total of 37.5 million shares representing 1.24% equity interest in the banking group within the past two weeks. AMMB was also the only domestic banking group the pension fund was seen buying during this period.
Banking analysts said the pension fund could be acquiring the shares on expectations that the banking group’s third quarter ended Dec 31, 2010 (3Q10) earnings will be fairly strong. AMMB is likely to announce its numbers within the next few days.
“AMMB is likely to post strong earnings from higher loan growth and non-interest income, and may also beat analysts’ consensus. The banking group is also trading at attractive multiples after a selldown in its shares recently,” an analyst said.
AMMB dipped 45 sen to close at RM6.15 on Feb 11, from RM6.60 on Feb 8. The stock also saw heavy trading with volume surpassing 18 million shares on Feb 10 and 11. On Feb 14, the counter closed 12 sen higher at RM6.27.
In 2Q10, AMMB’s net profit rose 38.6% to RM332.9 million from RM240.2 million, underpinned by higher interest income and revenue from the life assurance division.
TEH : I moved in when I saw it dipped and touched RM6, with huge buying seen. EPF is supporting her at the moment.
Justin Timberlake - What Goes Around...Comes Around
Note : I like Justin Timberlake's songs and this is one of my fav number
10.05 am : Yet another very busy day in work.
KLCI up about 4 points, with MHB testing RM6.53.
IJM-wc at 2.42 now.Yesterday's RSI at 33, I think. After today's, it might go below 30 then. Noted.
1.01 pm :
AMMB-cj cleared 10k units at 0.155. Queued to clear 10k units each at 0.160, 0.165 and 0.170 not done but will continue to clear her since I have been collecting a lot now.
UEMLand : I told a reader yesteday that UEMLand should breach RM3 barrier today. Yes, it is done just that. So, my UEMLand-cc is doing good. Queue to clear at 0.50 not done.
Cut-loss : Cutting losses when it reached our stop-loss is important so that we could ride on others which on uptrend. That is why average-down is a 'sin' in trading.
2.50 pm: KLCI up 5 points.
UEMLand-cc running well, so I shall let it run. NO more buyings ... it is thinking of selling in stages now.
4.45 pm : KLCI still up 4 points. UEMLand will close at RM3, psychological level to break tmr to see the resistance at RM3.22. AMMB will close at RM6.32, and way to go to rebound.
IJMPLant-wa : Went down below RM1 today. Plantation-rally over? Will re-look into her tonight.
Alam : At 1.05 ... note.