Monday, January 31, 2011

8.05 pm : KLCI closed at 1520 level. It dived again this morning but I am too busy to check the markets.

Charts to check : Tenaga, CIMB, GAB and KFC

TEH

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Warrants to watch

Property-warrants

BRDB-wa :

IJMLand-wa

SPSetia-wb : Undoubtedly the darling of traders. Expiring in two years time, at a discount of 3%. Supported at 50MA, resistance at 1.83 now. It was unthinkable that it actually went below strong support at 1.60 before recovering. Such a panic-selling is needed to buy into a stock you like. I certainly like BRDB-wa and IJMLand-wa but I think I have a lover-affair with her. Technically bullish now, waiting for a breaking of 1.83 level(after CNY) to collect more. Yes, I am still bullish on her(a lot) and will continue to collect during the current 'weakness'.

Construction-warrants

Fajar-wa : RSI at 46, mommy up - premium at 1%. Very nice. Like her at current level.


Gadang-wa : Recently the bad-news affecting the mommy's price. Of coz baby also dive. Supported at 50MA now, at 0.38 level ... can go any lower? Mommy's RSI at 35, baby's at 42. This is a new warrant, exercise price at RM1, expiring at 2015. So, I will prefer the mommy rather than baby for this counter.



Gamuda-wd : RSI 46, some positive technical indicators. Premium 11.5%. So, a good buy for those positive in construction-sector.


IJM-wc : Mommy at support level (6.50 - MA20), premium only 3.5%. Uptrending with more construction news out. Bullish-crossover seen in stochastic at oversold region, a good indicator to buy? Among all the construction warrant, I like this one the most at this point of time. I do not have so-called favourite tho I traded WCT-wb the most.



WCT-wb : Mommy at 3.30, support level with RSI 47. Mommy down, but WCT-wb down only a little, so premium at 18% is high now. Expiring next Sept. Perhaps one could wait for it to retrace to 0.82 level to start collecting again.

Correction : Thanks David Ng for pointing out. As the exercise price adjusted to RM2.50, so it is 2.50 + 0.91 = 3.41. Mommy at 3.30, so premium should be at 3% only. That is a good buy, seeing that I am still bullish on her mommy. BUY.


Steel-warrants

AnnJoo-wb : RSI 45, premium only 7% and expiry 2013. Back to my purchase level as I failed to clear her at 0.795. It touched 0.79, actually. Next level to consider is 0.68 and way down to 0.62. But, I wont add more, and might clear for small profit/loss to grab more of Masteel, which are more volatile with news of johore-spore fast-link news in play. So, it is a sell for me soon.





Masteel-wa : RSI at 54 level, queue at 0.685, supported by 20MA, resistance at 0.765. Premium at 3%, expiry 2015, mommy at 1.33, bullish crossover soon. This new steel warrant came up from 0.40 level to go to 0.90 level before cooling-off at the moment due to market-correction. I have collected at 0.765 level, and 0.705 level at the moment. Next level to buy is way down at 0.580. I do not use FR as I am not familiar with it. If one is bullish on steel-sector, this could be a good leverage play. Note that coal-prices are at the high and profit-margins will be squeezed.

8.30 pm : Someone just left a message/comment, saying I am just a stupid guy who dont know what probability is. I m not in mood to reply but just pointing out such a coward hiding behind an 'anon'. My ex-friend-ex-student, Dr JL hided behind 'anon' and made bad comments when I was coaching him!! I never realise that until he left and I checked. So, it is psychological to me to wonder if it is from any of my 7-nice-students? I have been so badly betrayed by Dr JL that I promised myself not to coach any friends(and for free, ok?) as it might hurt the friendships again. Now, these 7-young students of mine as my colleagues, and those closest to me in my new working place!! I do not wish that they are cursing me at my back, for sure.

I did not coach them for free(tho I told them I wont mind, actually) this time ... so, I want to see it as ... if I have helped them in their learning in trading/investing, they paid me for it. I am being paid to do a 'job'. But, deep inside me, I know I am coaching them as I want them to start young - learn about money, earn, save and invest. If they learn well, someday they will appreciate me for leading them to a path of accumulating wealth.

To see even one of them cursing me and losing them as friends will be a big-blow to me. Not to my little ego, but to my sincere helping heart. I wont know if I could ever find the courage to coach anyone else next time. Perhaps, I am really just a stupid-guy as that coward mentioned. I dont know ... I m more worried any of them losing money!! Afterall, investing means possibilities of growing our money, right?

I am tired. Thanks for reminding me that I am stupid. Just to disappoint you, I do know what probability is. Do you care to listen if I elaborate? Sigh.

Give me a break. I just lost a dad. Night.

TEH

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Genting : At 10.80 level, at support level and at 50MA. Stochastic at oversold. DOW down 166 points, so next week market down again, RSI will be going below 40. Time to buy her?

Time to buy?

KLSE's top-30 stocks(RSI) that I stalk

1.Tenaga(17.2)
2.IOICorp(31.2)
3.GenM(36.9)
4.YTLPower (37.2)

5.AMMB(37.5)
6.Genting (40.0)
7.MAS (40.3)
8.Gamuda(41.1)
9.KLK (42.0)
PPB (43.3)
YTL (43.3)
MMCCorp (43.7)
Axiata(43.8)
CIMB(44.3)
UMW (44.4)
MayBank (46.5)
Sime (50.3)
PChem (60.4)

With DOW down more than 150 points(what?? due to Eygpt's unrest? What an excuse to sell!!). With that, will it brings KLCI lower on next week?



This song is dedicated to Alam, Kencana and Sapcres. I want them back.

O&G : As the stories continue ... do read The Edge about the bigger stories coming out. BUY O&G counters - MHB, PChen, Dialog, KNM, Dayang ... even Petra, TgOffShore, Naim, Ranhill, Muhibah being mentioned. A safe bet should be Dialog, Sapcres and Kencana. Dayang and Naim in focus due to Sarawak election-theme.

Youtube : A comment taken from a Birtney's clip. LOL

The types of YouTube comments:

1. 1-3 word comments that are usually positive, but really retarded.

2. Negative criticism normally consisting of insults of someones sexuality

3. Quotes from the video, like we all didnt just watch the same video.

4. Insane rambling arguments commonly about Obama or Christianity that start out somewhat sane, but quickly decline into runon sentences about government mandated brain control

5. Something about the dislike bar or Justin Bieber

He is right in mny ways. If you do read a few comments on YouTube, you will see how many of them have FREE TIME. If we are all allowed to comment FREELY and 'forced' to comment, I am sure to laugh my ass-off(LMAO). Haha. By the way, many dont know what LOL stands for? Nope, it is not a stock listed in KLSE. Haha.

TEH
Tenaga losing her energy



Tenaga : Closed at 6.23, in heavy selling. Dont know why. RSI at 17.2, extremely oversold. PE below 10 now. So, it is a BUY? I think an investor should consider her.

2.00 pm : Koo-Tan just lost their game to the Koreans, as expected. They are seeded 2 and the Koreans(certainly a better pair) seeded 6. The determination to WIN all their games no longer with them since their shot to stardom - they were invincible at a point winning every tournaments they played!! Then ... STARDOM gets into their heads when they have fans all over, with money(and more money) flowing their way. They no longer fight to WIN ... you could see that they are ALREADY reach, playing for the country is just a name. Do they have the heart?

If we are to go into market for MONEY, profitting more MONEY from market, then the intention is not right in the first place. Statistic has shown that majority of them lost or losing money in market(otherwise those fund-managers eat what?).

Take investment education seriously, make it a habit to learn from each of our trades. There is this homework many wont do - to jot down their LOSSES and learn from the mistakes!! Serious!! Many will rather switch off their pc when they see market correcting ... and it has been correcting for past two weeks now.

I like those waterfalls ... Tenaga is the safest bet. How about JCY, MEGB, Support ... and many more? Someone mentioned TopGlove?


TEH

Friday, January 28, 2011

3.15 pm : Tired ... physically and emotionally. Need to rest.

MahSing-cb : A quick short punt on her this morning at 0.265 was good, sold at 0.305 done. It is at 0.315 now. I will buy-back at 0.30 but reduce portion to half as it is moving higher, risk is higher. Mind you, MahSing's RSI above 70, ok?

TEH
KLCI up 7 points. So, buying yesterday waa good.

YH : bought GenM at 3.26 level. I hope she will jot it down into her journal as of why she did not wait for RSI below 30 and at 3.20 level? You see, she bought 3.20 level before ... and the next day after she bought GenM, it touched 3.19. Queue at 3.20 could have been done. And RSI was at 27 then. Nice?

Buying on Thursday when we knew KLCI forming hammer. Many came in to buy today. I missed today and might miss tmr trading too. DOW up and above 12,000 now. O&G counters running again, Kencana, Dialog and Sapcres.

SPSetia-wb shooting higher again ... tmr might see more buying into SPSetia and wb. I am collecting SP-cc.

9.40 am : KLCI down by 4 points on profit-taking after a good run yesterday. Yes, time for last minute CNY shopping again ...

OSK is coming up with new CW for SPSetia. It is SPSetia-ce. It shows bullishness in SPSetia. I am still bullish on her too. Generally, I do think property-stocks will be doing well this year. I have added MahSing in my stalk-list after S.Dali wrote 'good' things about her. The investor circles will somehow buy into the stocks he wrote(and he liked). That will create a 'herd mentality' and hence, the trend. Yes, making trend your friends and those non-performing stocks will be sacrificed.

MahSing-cb : Grabbed her.

I am OK, tho I know it will take some time for the cloud-of-darkness to be cleared. Time heals the pain, so they said. At times, when we have expected an event, we are actually mentally prepared for it. It is the emotion that we have to deal with when the event really turns out to be what we expected or worse.

Lets say, we bought a stock and then ... when market down for more than a week, we expect our stocks to tank or correct too. No stocks will be spared in such 'bad' environment. We need to take action if we are going to cut-loss and expect it to move lower, and buyback at lower level OR to average down on our holdings. Majority of us will average down as we want to believe it will somehow rebound? So, we expect it to go lower ... we cant see the light that it will rebound. Everywhere we go or whoever we speak to SUDDENLY painted a gloom situation. Analysts will come out to give their reasonings(after all, the PUBLIC or we called them 'the herd') on why some stocks not performing or why market needs to correct. FEAR starts to grip us ... we SELL our so-called good stocks(were good 2 weeks ago, ok?) after it moved lower for a week!! Only to see it rebounds days later!!

Do read the article I copied-n-pasted about Herd Mentality as that is reality. Accepting that WE are the herds being slaughtered could be our FIRST step of not being in the herd. Recently, I have created a 'herd mentality' in my students who are following me. Three bought into IJMPlant-wa without questioning their buying(the theories easily swept aside due to 'guru' worshipping mentality - my sifu bought it, it cant be wrong ... I want to profit hugely like him, so I buy what he is buying la. wont wrong one ... blah blah ... a long mental chat justifying their BUYings??).

Yes, I created the 'herd mentality' in them ... so that I could POINT them out in their next class(will only be in April as we will be too busy). Those reading these lines could feel 'trapped'. How could my so-called sifu trap me in the 'herd mentallity' that he taught us? Hmm ... interesting.

Yes, I need to make them realise that following blindly anyone's buying is nothing different from those aunties/uncles buying. That explain too why many have strings of losing stocks in their portfolio, with HOPE that someday, they will be alive again.

This is my believe at the moment : In the midst of gloomy market, it lies opportunites. I believe this year to be a bull-market(Alex Lu warned that we are at the tail-of-bull) and the current deep correction is a point to accumulate. I think traders will be back after CNY as many taken their bets of the CNY table.

You cant be bullish two weeks ago and only feel bearish now, can you? Think of the direction. The direction is the trend what we need to guesstimate ... bull or bear? You decide.

Ok for today. Off .

May my father rest in peace.

TEH

p/s : Thanks again for the condolences.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Thursday ... thanks for the condolences. I will be OK.

off today and a few days as I could not get my system up to think or write anything.

Market should rebound soon, and I have started to collect some yesterday. Will queue now to buy more ...

8.50 am : I m still in office, going to prepare some work for my students who will miss some of my classes today and tmr.

Construction-stocks : Muhibah, Gamuda and WCT are my choices at the current level.

3.30 pm : Home ... to rest. Thanks again to many who concerned. I am OK.

KLCI up 7 points.

WX : Kencana and Sapcres moving.

Buying spree : I bought Muhibah, YTLLand and IJMPlant-wa yesterday. The former two doing well today. Today my queue for Masteel-wa done at 0.72, waiting more at 0.70. I am changing AnnJoo-wb with Masteel-wa as this is more volatile, good for trading purposes with the high-speed link Iskandar-Singapore news in play.

Muhibah : supported at 20MA yesterday and with the good news out, I will like to see 1.85 or so to take profit.

YTLLand : At 1.81 now, looking to clear again at high of 1.90+.

Plantation still not in play. I am collecting plantation stocks.

TEH

Wednesday, January 26, 2011


11.20 pm : Just came back from hospital.
DOW up a little but KLCI down 6+points. It formed a nice black hammer. See if confirmation tmr and it will be a sign of reversal. As next week is CNY, trading days cut short and many will be off. So, buying on Friday will be the best day, in my opinion.

I am tired ... please check on many of the charts of the top-30 where many with RSI below 30, for grab. GenM touched 3.19 today but rebounded. Do check on intraday chart for most of the stocks which DIVED in the first hour of trading, which I believe some panic selling occured. It is NOT easy to hold your breath when market dives in such a manner.

Night, anyway. No posting tmr or Friday as we are preparing for my father's funeral. As I said, I am OK and hope to bounce back next week. No CNY celebration for us too.

TEH
A good write-up by Dali that should be read by all.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2011/01/why-investing-is-so-difficult.html

TEH
9.55 am : KLCI is still bleeding and I am still wearing red(pink, actually as I do not expect another culling). KLCI down 8 points. GOSH!! The bull is being sacrificed.

I am going to guide my few 'loyal' students who have been diligently following my blog? But I m still struggling with my work and emotions. So, no trading for me until I get myself clear of the cloud of emotions and such. I dont even have time to check on my bleeding portfolio yet.

Is it a reversal .... no more bull? If so, SELL and cut loss now. If one is still bullish that it will recover and rebound stronger, then it is about time to buy. I am still waiting for last minute CNY shopping ... will it stablise tmr?

11.20 am : KLCI at 1517, I was telling someone last week I will like to look into FKLI when it reaches 1520 level. He said that is NOT possible and was looking at 1545 level, rather. It was un-imaginary last week that KLCI to go to 1520. Today, it is REALITY. We have in the grip of bear. That is the psychological level for me to go long on KLCI. Now ... it is time?!! FEAR factor is real ...

I have taught my students(and shared with many - yet, I do not apply much of it due to greed) this point : FEEL inside yourself, if you are in GREAT FEAR, it is time to look at the market to BUY.

Now, you see as market moving lower, MANY of those KLSE-kaki close their pc(even the number of clicks in my blog are less than 1k this whole week - I didnt write much due to my dad ailing in hospital, not due to bleeding market, ok?). Many do not FACE the bleeding market, which I still think WE SHOULD DO THE OPPOSITE.

I am liking the current so-called BEAR. I started to see many of my portfolio down more than 10%. It shows BEARISH ... also the number of oversold stocks increase each daily. Do simple scanning on it. Check on the top-30 ... you will find many with RSI below 30. So, I alerted my students who have not bought anything to consider buying ... when? Friday? Friday is a day when many traders close their positions. With such situation, those bought into markets two weeks or last week will have to close with some losses.

So, with limited bullets to shoot, arent we glad if we could be PATIENT to wait for such a huge mega-sales? Time to buy or sell? We are still seeing many SELLING, pulling the KLCI lower each time ... as I am writing, KLCI down by 10 points. Oh boy ... time to look into many charts. As I will be at hospital at night, they do not have wifi and my broadband is not broad enough over there, I could not go online. I might look into some tonight.

GenM and Tenaga are nice ... Gamuda still down. MAS is having a rough landing ... KLK lost more than RM1 now. What's next? Blue-chips no longer blue?

Taken from the edgedaily

KUALA LUMPUR: Blue chips fell again for the sixth day on Wednesday, Jan 26, on profit taking on PLANTATIONs and banks though the volume traded was thin.

The KLCI fell 9.23 points to 1,517.20 at 9.42am, off the low of 1,505. Turnover was 289 milion shares valued at RM303 million. There were 126 gainers, 309 losers and 213 stocks unchanged.

KL Kepong fell 64 sen to RM20.76 with 409,200 shares done, Batu Kawan 38 sen to RM16.20, Tradewinds Plantations 13 sen to RM2,95 and PPB 12 sen to RM16.98.

DiGi lost 48 sen with 13,800 shares done while Guinness Anchor shed 25 sen to RM9.20 and HL Bank 21 sen to RM9.20.

Analysts said the local market, especially key blue chips with high foreign holdings, may have seen oversold conditions and they expect the market to regain its strength as there is still a lot of liquidity in the system.

They said for Malaysia, there is buying opportunity for oversold counters and plantations still offer upside based on the firmer crude palm oil prices.

They said the recent profit taking by foreign funds is due to risk aversion about monetary tightening and inflation risks.

“As for the US market, at some point in time it will stagnate but for Malaysia, everything is line for us, such as a stronger currency while the awarding of the marginal oil fields would create a sense of leadership among the oil and gas players,” said the head of a foreign research house. However, he was more cautious in the second half due to tightening liquidity measures.

TEH : I am still bullish for 1H. I m bullish on property and plantation. So, I hope I will dare enough to BUY into them soon.

2.05 pm : ALERT ... KLCI forming a hammer today. BUY.

3.20 pm : I MISSED THIS MORNING show. I checked many charts and it shown some PANIC selling by many in the morning, first half hour of trading!! I MISSED it.

Have to get back to my work, while queueing to grab more of my stocks.

猜測 光良 品冠



TEH

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

There are so many nice charts to watch now.

Top KLSE's Losers

1. KLK (40) RM21.40
2. Genting (39) RM10.84
3. TWS (55) RM7.01
4. SPSetia (52) RM6.26
5. AMMB 6.69
6. AirAsia 2.66
7. CIMB 8.30
8. Gamuda 3.77
9. Bursa 8.47
10. YTL 8.16
11. KEuro 1.40
12. Sapcres 3.44
13. MHB 5.70
14. HSPlant 3.20

It is a CNY last-minute sales ... so, the sellers are agressive. SELL SELL SELL? Anyone buying?

I hope I will brave myself to BUY into markets this week(before Friday) and believing that after CNY, traders will be back with their angpow-money.

TEH
DOW up 100 points, reaching 12,000 level soon but that doesnt help KLCI? Will be too busy to monitor.

Property-stocks in mind : SPSetia, MahSing, YTLLand and E&O. Which one should I consider?

10.25 pm : KLCI in red again, down 4 points. I am wearing red.

A peep into my portfolios most in reds, with some in trauma-ward. I am still doing nothing much ... trying to finish my paperwork before CNY. No CNY celebration this year for our family, anyway. But the few days break is what I do need, to bring myself back into my feet again. In hard times, we try to hang on ... making things to move, at least. In good times, we should be doing much better. I hope I dont give bad market sentiments to affect my emotions.

Nice song to cheer me up!



4.45 pm : BUSY the whole day ... gosh!! What is happening??! Buying anything today?

KLCI down 15 points!! Nothing is spared!! It is a bear market now?



TEH
DOW still up. The sell-down in KLCI losing steam ... those who need the money for CNy have taken out their money. So, time to buy some stocks tmr ...

As I am eyeing property stock, Dali written about Mah Sing and I believe, reading that, many will rush in to buy her tmr morning!! As for me, I will prefer to collect SPSetia, E&O and YTLLand. I have sold HuaYang for small profits today.

Tired .... need to rest. I might punt into MahSing-cb, a newly listed CW attached to MahSing.

TEH

Monday, January 24, 2011

Monday ... will be too busy to monitor.

CNY sales again? Do you think the bull is just resting and will be back after CNY?

11.20 am : Busy since morning ... KLCI down 4.8 points. CIMB and Tenaga not moving lower?

GenM : At 3.35 now ... looking at 3.28

AirAsia : Down 7% today, at 2.70 level now.

11.50 am : Time for lunch, more classes and more paperwork. BUSYYY.

2.05 pm : Just got to know a new colleague and he introduced himself as my ex-student!! That was 15 years ago, now he is my colleague! I am really old! Haha.

MHB : AT 5.75 level ... terrible.

KLCI down 7.3 points at the moment, reports saying foreign funds are exiting.

8.20 pm : Another sell-down in KLSE.

Property-stocks

As I m still bullish on property as a sector, a good look at some of the stocks being pushed lower.

BRDB : RSI at 32 now, abandoned.

E&O : At 1.20 level again, from 1.35 level. Noted.

IGB : Closed at 2.15, touched 2.12. It corrects from 2.30 level.

IJMLand : At 2.80, looking for 2.70 now.

Ivory : Closed at 1.08, back to RM1.03?

Malton : Look at 0.73 level. Touched 0.735 today.

Tambun : Newly listed, at 0.745, touched new low 0.74.

UEMLand : RSI at 51, correcting more than a week now. Worth looking into ... supported at 20MA.

YTLLand : RSI at 56, support 1.65.

10.50 pm : DOW up ... at 11,900 level now. Another 100 points to see 12,000. Wow!! They really taken out the funds from SEA-markets to move back to US? Hm ...


TEH

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Learning Corner : The Herd Mentality

Crowd Behaviours

Taken from : informedtrades.com

In this lesson you will learn how the marketrs are manipulated through some simple, yet extremely powerful, psychological factors.

People come to the markets hoping to catch some "easy money" or to "get rich quick". Sometimes it takes a lot of money, but it doesn't take much time to find out how wrong they are. Crowd behavior can help you a great deal in understanding how the markets really work. The markets trade on the sentiment of the crowd and the crowd's sentiments are based on emotions. In the final analysis, people trade based on one emotion: fear. The markets manipulate this emotion.

The term Collective Behavior refers to social processes and events which do not reflect existing social structure (laws, conventions, and institutions), but which emerge in a "spontaneous" way...Collective behavior, a third form of action, takes place when norms are absent or unclear, or when they contradict each other.

The crowd, or herd, or retail trader, has exhibited behaviours that have proven to be consistent over time. From the above definiton of Collective Behavior, these behaviours can be boiled down to two primary reactions to market changes: one is spontaneity, which is better defined as panic, and the other is confusion. Both are derivitives of fear and the product of being uninformed about the most important underlying process of market dynamics - psychology.

Greed leads to price chasing and over-trading. The crowd sees the market making a large move and they panic, fearing they will miss out on some quick, easy profits. As a group, they usually pull the trigger just as price has reached the top or bottom. Then they are confused why this keeps happening to them. They wait, watching the market move swiftly the other way and jump in again. Or, after suffering as losses mount, they get out only to see the market suddenly turn back, making gains in the direction they just exited and leaving them even more confused.

What is being referred to by "the Crowd" is the largest group of traders and, as a group they make decisions based on emotions. As a group they possess the greatest amount of capital (liquidity) in the markets and are the easy pickings for the professional group we'll be defining later as Smart Money (SM).

When comparing individual professionals to individuals in the crowd, the professionals have relatively enormous funds at their disposal. When comparing groups, the crowd has the greater amount of funds by far. Trying to control a market on a dollar for dollar basis would be futile for the professional. They don't have enough money to control a market, but they do have enough to cause psychological reactions in the crowd.

Anyone who is confused as to how the markets work is easily manipulated. Confusion feeds fear and fear breeds panic. Fear comes in two forms: the fear of losing money and the fear of missing out on a big move (greed). This works in every scale and time frame.

Charles Mackay's famous book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, is a collection of stories about crowd behavior in the market place. The stories can be seen working on charts everyday. An enduring bull market leads the crowd to believe the trend cannot end. Such optimistic thinking leads the crowd to overextend itself in acquiring the object of the mania. Eventually, fear takes hold when they start to realize the market is not as strong as they thought. Inevitably the market collapses and the fear turns to panic.

This is the nature of the crowd: a collection of usually calm, rational individuals getting overwhelmed by emotions. Those who study human behavior have repeatedly found that the fear of missing an opportunity for profits and the fear of great loses easily outweight rational behavior. At its fundamental level, these fears consistently overwhelm the crowd.

"Perhaps never before or since have so many people taken the measure of economic prospects and found them so favourable as in the two days following the Thursday [24th October 1929] disaster". J.K.Galbraith - The Great Crash 1929. However, "On Monday the real disaster began".

The disaster of 1929 continued down, then up; horror, then hope, then horror, for 6 months. It sunk the bulls, the speculators, the bottom fishers, the momentum trackers, the chartists, the value investors - everyone. Virtually no-one who had ever been involved in the markets came out of the other side with any money at all.

It is crowd psychology that forms the basis of professional manipulation: selling when the crowd is buying and buying when they are selling. Professional manipulation could not work if the efficient market hypothesis were true, since prices would only be determined by fundamentals.

ThisMatter.com, in an article about market sentiment, describes it like this:

To explain these market dynamics, the market is conjectured to be primarily composed of 2 groups: informed players and the much larger group of uninformed players. The informed player is considered to be the professional, who understands the valuation of assets according to fundamentals, but the uninformed players have little or no understanding of asset valuation, and, thus, is not a factor in their buying and selling decisions.

There are also liquidity players, who are market participants that buy or sell, not because of market forecasts, but because of organizational objectives or because they need the money, as when a pension fund needs to make payments to retirees or a mutual fund needs to sell to pay for redemptions, However, liquidity players are not thought to have a significant effect on prices most of the time, because their actions, motivated by individual needs, are not concerted.

Since the uninformed masses are a much larger group, they also have more money, and, thus, are a more important determinant of market prices. Hence, because market sentiment seems to be more important in the pricing of securities than fundamentals, a trader who accurately forecasts market sentiment will be more successful than one who only considers fundamentals. In this way, even informed players are swayed by the crowds.

As you can see, crowd behavior is no secret to the professional trader. The crowd still reacts to the market based on their emotions of greed and fear - and the professionals use this against them. For the professional, profits come, not so much from market analysis and technical indicators, it comes from manipulating the greed and fear of the crowd.

copied by : TEH

Saturday, January 22, 2011


HuaYang : Nice chart and news of good profits are out. PE still below far below average. I have used HuaYang as a study for my students of smallish un-covered stocks by most broker-houses but it will be good if we know how to read Annual Reports and/or quarterly report.

When NJ bought her at 0.97 about 2.5 months ago, I was targetting 10% in 3 months. Today, it is 10% and next week it should move higher after the news out. Initially he was targetting 1.20!! But I m always more conservative and if it gives me 10% in less than 3 months, I will be glad. He sold his portion at 1.05 level. I have asked him to buy-back last week and dont know it he done that.


I have spent my Sat night in Uni Hospital and will be there whole day tmr as my dad is ailing and we bro/sis could only pray that he will go soon without much pain. It is painful to see him suffering as he is at the moment. Anyway, I am ok.

KUALA LUMPUR: The local stock market may see cautious trade on Monday, Jan 24 after the profit taking by foreign funds on Friday, which pushed the FBM KLCI to the lowest since Jan 3 while RM18.07 billion wiped out from the market capitalisation in one day.

The FBM KLCI closed at a three-week low on Friday, the worst performance since this year as some funds took money off the table, in line with key regional markets on concerns about more monetary tightening policies by China's government.

The KLCI was down 19.08 points or 1.22% to 1,547.43, the lowest since Jan 3 when trading started for the year as local institutions stayed on the sidelines. The profit taking, especially of banks and PLANTATIONs, saw the market capitalisation reduced to RM1.306 trillion from RM1.324 trillion on Thursday.

I will not be writing anything for Sunday. Liverpool won.

Have a nice weekend.

TEH
12 noon : Just back from more shopping ... and time to go for classes again, and giving CNX stock-picking at The Star building today (12.30 to 2.30) a miss. I have tuition till 6 pm today!!

I have more work to be done before I could check on many things about market - I missed almost the whole week of actions as I was very busy and was not feeling too well too.


Tenaga : Looking at 8.40 could be a nice entry price. It touched 8.43, with RSI 34 at the moment. I do believe a report that I read that Tenaga will be used to pusk KLCI higher when election nearing. WIth that speculated news, it is safe to buy Tenaga at current support level.


CIMB : At 8.20 will be nice, supported at 100MA. I am still wondering about the HUGE selling volumes yesterday, some funds selling which I have not checked on it. RSI at 36 currently, closed at 8.34. The huge long black candle-stick showing the intensed selling. So, we wait at 8.20 level, with RSI moving to 30 level. Thai-CIMB just reported good profits and seeking to be listed there. Also, election in mind ... Najib will instruct some funds to buy this BEST bank in Malaysia and perhaps in region soon.

CIMB and Tenaga

At the current rate I am going, I really need to change some strategies. I need to buy those I could hold on too. From the current list, I like CIMB now. Yes, I still admit I like(or love?) Tenaga ... stalking her. These two big-babes could be use to support market and moving into election rally.

So, yes ... Tenaga is a buy to me, so one of my more conservative student, YH, will be buying her soon. I will push her a little to buy it next week. Ignoring the broker's reports, please. This is for buy-n-hold till it recovers and it will. By the value, its PE around 10, the cheapest blue-chip in town.

I will do some homework on CIMB-cw, anticipating its rebound. And I believe it will ...

TEH

Friday, January 21, 2011

CNY Megasales : KLSE's top 21 losers(that I stalk)

1. KLK (55) - look at 21.85
2. Genting (53) - look at 11.05
3. MHB (58) - look at 5.90
4. PPB (44) - look at 16.75
5. Kulim (55) - look at 13.10
6. CIMB (36) - look at 8.30
7. TWS (66) - look at 6.90
8. UMW (46) - look at 7.10
9. BStead (55) - look at 5.40
10. KNM (54) - look at 2.80

Stage 1 : List out all the top losers that I stalk during a day when there is a Mega-Sales.

Note : From here, I am focusing on the 21 stocks at this point of time.

Stage 2 : Check the RSI for each of the stock - create a working-sheet for them to jot down their current RSI.

Note : Choose the one with RSI below 50. Trim further the list.

Stage 3 : Draw a horizontal support to check on the next level to buy.

Note : If the stock have more space to move lower, highlight it further. Good stock to stalk.

TEH : I have done stage 3 with the top ten so far. So far, in the filtered list are CIMB, PPB and UMW. Yes, the top-30 preferred.

11. PChem (69) - look at 6.05
12. AMMB (44) - at support currently.
13. UEMLand (53) - loot at 2.58
14. Supermax (53)
15. Penergy (61) - look at 1.75
16. IJM (60) - look at 6.50
17. KimLun (49) - look at 1.62
18. TWSPlant (52)
19. Parkson (52) - look at 5.60
20. Bursa (62)
21. SPSetia (59)

11.50 pm : Just came back from Uni Hospital. Dad is ailing.

So, from the list above we have AMMB, CIMB, PPB, UMW and KimLun to stalk with intention to buy next week. Adding Tenaga, make it 6 in the stalk list.

The above is only for illustration what I might do if I was PATIENT with cash in hand, waiting for such a huge correction, and ready for shopping next week.


Who were selling yesterday?
DOW down, crude oil below USD90 ... HSI lost 400 points. Lucky for KLCI as KLSE close today? More selling will be seen later ...

Greatest love of all by Whitney.



I just done another 3-hour class regarding Trading Plans and Trading Journal on very basic ideas. They have to figure that out when they are more experience. I will only check 2-3 months time as we will be taking a break due to busyness in college. Trail exams is near and marking till April expected. So, less trading for me ... more on work work work ..

8.25 am : I am recovering ... back to work and trying to complete some paper work today.

Cypark : At the peak, RSI was at 90+, today back to 70. At 1.80, can one still move in? Staying green, anyone?

11.25 am : BUSY ... KLCI in deep RED. It is down 14 points now. Talking about bull-market?

Many of my warrants and CWs in deep red now too.

LionInd : RM2 done, in fact it went below RM2, touched 1.97.

Now, when should we buy more of stocks as it is in correction mode. If we need to cut-loss, should we cut today and buy back after CNY, perhaps?

SPSetia-cc : At 0.210 ... oh boy. Trim and take some losses?

12.25 pm : Someone sold hugely at 0.20 done. Going for lunch, in deep red with this one now. Few following me into buying these will have to decide to cut-loss now or buying more? Or hold ... it is always a decision to do, dealing with the HIGH risk of punting into CWs, ok?

1.15 pm : Tonnes of paperwork to be done.

CWs : Those punted into CWs will either have to decide to cut-loss soon or move to buy more if this is seen as a mere correction. When the party is back? Why all the gloom before CNY? Well, as many claiming ...CNY is around, people need to withdraw some money to give the angpows!!

Neno the robot?

There is someone hiding behind many nicks, and most recent nick called NENO which has been spamming others blog, either in their chat-box or comments. Me? Am I spared from the robot? Of coz not ... what I do is just click DELETE or place under SPAM and then delete them in weekly basis. Yeah, it is tiring when you have few(luckily for me, not many leaving a comment! haha) comments and most of them from 'robots'. Unlike many usual spam I received, this NENO is irritating as he will move around to let others to know how good his sifu is. We could not be clear what his motives are, but as Moola pointed out, it is to promote his sifu's personal blog. You need to pay some money, I cant remember how much.

You see, it is not wrong any bloggers want to place his blog 'private'. And since many interested to know about 'stock picl', many willing to pay that small amount, with a HOPE that his call will generate huge profit, right? You dont get good tips if it is free, they said. Haha. I m fine with that ... but what I do not understand will be WHY envy on others? Let others say what they want, using TA if they like or writing ANYTHING we bloggers like? Cannot meh?

So, again ... luckily I get myself independent and free from the main Malaysian-blog-media. I have always want to be as independent as possible, linking my own thoughts with what I read or analysed. If I m writing here what I think I like, it is PERSONALLY mine. The disclaimer said it all ... trade at your own risk. Following my buyings or sellings WILL NOT profit anyone well.

Neno and many more 'robots', please spare me the clicks of deleting the comments, will ya? I will hope your sifu well ... and we do not need to irritate others with our 'EGO', right?

You can have it your FA way ... many may have it their own way, or can we?

TEH : To answer Moola question if Samgoose is better than Dali or Alex? The answer is NO. But he is certainly better than me. Majority of the bloggers or traders in KLSE better than me. That I could agree with. Expect for those investors, traders, speculators or punters still losing money in market, than I think I m slightly better than that level.

I am so stress with my paper-work that I laughed reading about NENO. Perhaps, I should dedicate a post for him, seeing that he is such a diligent fish. Err ... Nemo or Neno?

2.50 pm : KLCI down 16 points. I m grabbing more SPSetia-cc at 0.195. Ouch.

SPSetia-wb : Wow ... below 1.80, at 1.78 now. Noted.

UEMLand : Down 16 cents now. Crazy selling is on ... after such a good run.

KimLun : At 1.66 today.

3.20 pm : KLCI down 18 points. I will be very busy this weekend to check on many charts!!

Dialog : Giving ways to the pressure too ... at RM2 level now.

KNM : Going below RM3 ... at 2.95 now.

SELL SELL SELL ... it is CNY soon, the CNY-rally is over!! SELL SELL ... one could hear these yelling on the phones of many today. I wish to be at a trading ground to witness such where we could only see it happening on TV, Bloomberg or CNBC channel.

3.35 pm : It is game over ... KLCI down 18.5 points now.

Mega-sales : Buying anything today? We buy stocks during sales, ok?

TEH

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Develop Your Own Trading Plan

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. A Trading Plan establishes a series of steps that ensure a higher probability of success.

The Plan will set certain guidelines for:

What stocks to buy
When to buy
When to sell


The Structure of Your Trading Plan

A Strong Market:

Before deciding what to buy, first establish if the market is in a positive phase. If the KL Composite Market has been negative over recent weeks (or longer), it is not a good time to enter the market. If the majority of stocks are going down or sideways, the probability of you buying a share that is going to rise in the immediate future is slim.

A Strong Sector:

Having waited until the market is in a growth phase, determine if there are any sectors showing strong growth in the past few weeks. These are the sectors that have stocks performing well and are increasing in price.

Examine stocks in these strong sectors and determine those that are on an uptrend, meaning the price of the stock has been steadily going up for at least 3 months.

These stocks will qualify as having potential for ongoing growth as they are generating positive market sentiment. If they have adequate liquidity on top of that, you could add any of these to your portfolio knowing that you could exit quickly at any point in time.

Exit Strategy:

Having selected shares to include in your portfolio you must then have an Exit Strategy in the event that these shares show signs of reversing. Simply set an Early Exit price to ensure that the stocks you buy never generate losses.

This is a simple description of a Trading Plan. It holds the basics for selecting stocks that have a good probability of increasing in price and risk management to protect your capital. These three ingredients are the key to success in stock trading.

Source : Bursa Malaysia


Building the Perfect Master Plan

What are the components of a good trading plan? Here are 10 essentials that every plan should include.

Skill assessment - Are you ready to trade? Have you tested your system by paper trading it and do you have confidence that it works? Can you follow your signals without hesitation? If not, it's a good idea to read Mark Douglas's book, "Trading in the Zone", and do the trading exercises on pages 189–201. This will teach you how to think in terms of probabilities. Trading in the markets is a battle of give and take. The real pros are prepared and they take their profits from the rest of the crowd who, lacking a plan, give their money away through costly mistakes.

TEH : I have done it a hard way ... by using real money to test out some systems but I found it more applicable by using(and losing) real money. While we view learning trading system for a longer term, in the short term, we should allow that our systems full with flaws and our lack of experiences to make decisions. TIP = Think In Probability.

Mental preparation – How do you feel? Did you get a good night's sleep? Do you feel up to the challenge ahead? If you are not emotionally and psychologically ready to do battle in the markets, it is better to take the day off - otherwise, you risk losing your shirt. This is guaranteed to happen if you are angry, hungover, preoccupied or otherwise distracted from the task at hand. Many traders have a market mantra they repeat before the day begins to get them ready. Create one that puts you in the trading zone.

TEH : Since I m not a full-time trader, I m not so concern about the mantra ... yet, I do think we all do some routines before we buy/sell a stock. Before we trade, we should be doing what we should be doing ... in out trading plan.

Set risk level – How much of your portfolio should you risk on any one trade? It can range anywhere from around 1% to as much as 5% of your portfolio on a given trading day. That means if you lose that amount at any point in the day, you get out and stay out. This will depend on your trading style and risk tolerance. Better to keep powder dry to fight another day if things aren't going your way.

TEH : This is something I never really plan before in my earlier days of trading. Today, I do take cut-loss as an important point in my plan. I have not always been that discipline(hope analysis) and allowed a stock went lower my cut-loss point before I FEEL I have enough and cut it off for higher losses. That is certainly un-wise but certainly happens to a novice like me.

Set goals – Before you enter a trade, set realistic profit targets and risk/reward ratios. What is the minimum risk/reward you will accept? Many traders use will not take a trade unless the potential profit is at least three times greater than the risk. For example, if your stop loss is a dollar loss per share, your goal should be a $3 profit. Set weekly, monthly and annual profit goals in dollars or as a percentage of your portfolio, and re-assess them regularly.

TEH :

Do your homework – Before the market opens, what is going on around the world? Are overseas markets up or down? Are index futures such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds up or down in pre-market? Index futures are a good way of gauging market mood before the market opens. What economic or earnings data is due out and when? Post a list on the wall in front of you and decide whether you want to trade ahead of an important economic report. For most traders, it is better to wait until the report is released than take unnecessary risk. Pros trade based on probabilities. They don't gamble.

TEH :

Trade preparation – Before the trading day, reboot your computer(s) to clear the resident memory (RAM). Whatever trading system and program you use, label major and minor support and resistance levels, set alerts for entry and exit signals and make sure all signals can be easily seen or detected with a clear visual or auditory signal. Your trading area should not offer distractions. Remember, this is a business, and distractions can be costly.

TEH :

Set exit rules – Most traders make the mistake of concentrating 90% or more of their efforts in looking for buy signals but pay very little attention to when and where to exit. Many traders cannot sell if they are down because they don't want to take a loss. Get over it or you will not make it as a trader. If your stop gets hit, it means you were wrong. Don't take it personally. Professional traders lose more trades than they win, but by managing money and limiting losses, they still end up making profits.

Before you enter a trade, you should know where your exits are. There are at least two for every trade. First, what is your stop loss if the trade goes against you? It must be written down. Mental stops don't count. Second, each trade should have a profit target. Once you get there, sell a portion of your position and you can move your stop loss on the rest of your position to break even if you wish. As discussed above in number three, never risk more than a set percentage of your portfolio on any trade.

TEH :

Set entry rules – This comes after the tips for exit rules for a reason: exits are far more important than entries. A typical entry rule could be worded like this: "If signal A fires and there is a minimum target at least three times as great as my stop loss and we are at support, then buy X contracts or shares here." Your system should be complicated enough to be effective, but simple enough to facilitate snap decisions. If you have 20 conditions that must be met and many are subjective, you will find it difficult if not impossible to actually make trades. Computers often make better traders than people, which may explain why nearly 50% of all trades that now occur on the New York Stock Exchange are computer-program generated. Computers don't have to think or feel good to make a trade. If conditions are met, they enter. When the trade goes the wrong way or hits a profit target, they exit. They don't get angry at the market or feel invincible after making a few good trades. Each decision is based on probabilities.

TEH :

Keep excellent records – All good traders are also good record keepers. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how. More importantly, they want to know the same when they lose, so they don't repeat unnecessary mistakes. Write down details such as targets, the entry and exit of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day, and record comments about why you made the trade and lessons learned. Also, you should save your trading records so that you can go back and analyze the profit/loss for a particular system, draw-downs (which are amounts lost per trade using a trading system), average time per trade (which is necessary to calculate trade efficiency), and other important factors, and also compare them to a buy-and-hold strategy. Remember, this is a business and you are the accountant.

TEH :

Perform a post-mortem – After each trading day, adding up the profit or loss is secondary to knowing the why and how. Write down your conclusions in your trading journal so that you can reference them again later.

TEH :

Taken from Investopedia

TEH
DOW down a little. KLCI might be in profit-taking mode again?

I m feeling much better but with many classes from morning till night, I might get very tired again.

Gadang : Supported at 20MA, bearish crossover seen in MACD, RSI 55.

Today KLSE close? I thought only Selangor off? Hmm ... too busy today anyway.

12.30 pm : Lunch hour ... just had 3 hours of class, teaching Integration and its applications. I m coaching these 4 brilliant(of the cream) boys further Maths. They are of 10As in SPM, at least. I like teaching these boys as they are SELF-motivated. And during public holiday, they will want classes. Yes, they will be successful in their own endevours in future ... and I am always glad that I have helped, indirectly.

Now, these very brilliant and hard working students are FEW. They were top students in their previous schools, exibiting un-common learning characteristics and moveover, determine to excel in their studies. Two of them applying for Cambridge University and taking 5 subjects. A normal good(above average) students could cope with 4 subjects, getting straight A should not be an issue.

What I will lilke to note ... it is the LEARNING characters in them which stands out from the crowds, the herds. I do admire many of my students, especially those doing something 'different' from the majority.

You see, many of them these days obtain straight As or excellent results but sad to say, not all of them will do well in their lives or career in future. What actually distinguish from those mere doing and those really doing it?

So, I will always like to point it out that it is NOT the matter of how many As a student obtained but HOW he/she obtain it.

You may profit well from ONE trade but DO YOU KNOW HOW you have profitted from the trade? If you are buying base of simple reading of a blog(not mine, I hope) to buy ... and of luck, gained well, do you give yourself a pat on the back? You are just simply LUCKY.

Can we be lucky consistently? That is the question I m going to post to my 7 students tonight when I m seeing them for their 6th class. As a teacher, we could only teach ... as a coach, we could only coach. It is really up to the students or players out their to follow instructions or apply what being taught.

If I am given such brilliant charactered boys to coach, even with only 3-hours occasional classes, they could beat most of those with 6-hours per week consistent drilling from attending classes. Serious ... this is my belief. It is a CHARACTER of the person that stands out.

No matter how good I m being seen as a Maths lecturer(certainly one of the best Further Maths lecturer around, ok?), it is still depending on if my students applied what being taught in exams. So, no matter what I 'knowledge' I m trying to share with many, it is still depending on if my students know how to apply in trading a stock.

If a system works well for you for few particular stocks, stick to it. Do not mend what is not broken. But, if you have been trading without a system(random), then it is about time to learn ONE system to trade ONE stock first. Start from there ...

Homework : Many will ask ... what homework needs to be done before buying/selling a stock?

System : Many will also ask ... whaat trading systems are you talking about?

We all done some homework before buying/selling ... I believe. Many of us have a system too, it is just that it is not written or being tested.

Look into your own homework and system. Check it out, write it down. That is my lessons for my students tonight.

off as I still have 2 more hours of tuition to go. I will be teaching Differential Equation later. Well, after teaching for 20 years, I do not need to prepare much, ok? I will go in a class with 2 white-board pens ... and start teaching!! Know what is called knowledge and experiences? Imagine if I m 20 years in market?


TEH

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

DOW up 60 points. It is late ... I napped around 8pm just now after taken my medication. I might be on MC tmr if I m still not feeling well. I do not take MC for the whole year last year, I think. Once I was on MC, I still go to college to teach ... I do not want to waste my students time. But, I m feeling very weak now. Need to rest ... and I know I will still go to work even on MC.

So, I m still awake reading a very good book by NextView entitled "Online Investment". I think all traders and investors should have this book. Again, I m independent ... I m not paid by NextView to promote their book. I m just mentioning what books I m reading and find them useful.

I could not finish the 'warrant' post I have wanted. I m too weak ... analysing needs brain-cells, you know. Will try to continue that tmr. But, tmr will be yet another busy day at work.

A123 : Long time I did not say about this US babe of mine. It is at 10.65 now. It touched USD11 days ago. I will hold it till the average analyst's target price at USD13.

9.30 am : On MC .... tired. Need to rest.

11.25 am : KLCI down 3.4 points. I am home to rest.

3.35 pm : KLCI down 5.6 points. I slept off after taken medication. Still in a daze.

KFC-wb : Back to the base 1.50 today.

Dialog : Finally losing some ground ... O&G in correction too after such a strong up-surge?

TopGlove : At 5.10 ... will buy back at 5.00.

YTLLand : Bought back some at 1.79, will buy at 1.65 in larger portion next.

Kinstel : Cleared all my portion at 0.995 today.

4 pm : KLCI down by 6.9 points now ... many of my CWs in red.

Evergreen : Moving higher ... TP at RM2?

4.25 pm : KLCI down 8 points. Bull is over?

BJCorp : At 1.09, the goreng news is over. It went up to 1.29 and continue it downtrend. BJCorp is one lousy stock which always play on news so that some buaya-darat could benefit goreng the stock. Somehow, so many aunties/uncles believe the stories they are cooking and trapped inside it. Learn it well ... discipline yourself. This is syndicated stock. Dont touch if you dont know how to ride on it and cut loss, ok? Look at 1.03 support again ...

Masteel-wa : Riding on her.

10.30 pm : KLCI lost 3.53 points. Tmr is a public holiday for Selangor but KLCI do open. I do have many classes, hopefully I m recovered by tmr.

Stock watch : KUB, TWSCorp, Gadang, Muhibah and PMetal.

TEH

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Warrants to stalk

AnnJoo-wb

Gadang-wa

Gamuda-wd

IJMLand-wa

IJMPlant-wa : Went down to 1.16, closed at 1.19 supported by 50MA. Stochastic at oversold region. Nice. Wait a minute ... I do not expect it to go below 1.20 days ago and mommy went up to 2.13 today, actually. Another case of baby not following mommy. So, look for 1.15?



Masteel-wa : I admit I was such a chicken watching it moving higher from 0.50 level ... to 0.90 level. Incredible, it moved higher each passing day. One of the best performing warrant around currently. Today is a good day for profit-taking? Looking at 0.765 level.


SPSetia-wb : A dive today is unthinkable. RSI at 50, looking at 1.82 and then 1.70. With the good news of Bangsar-land still fresh, this dive is not expected. ECM downgraded it. Is that real? Perhaps the RM1.14b fund raising news is not accepted by many? Whatever reasons or excuses for many to sell, it has moved up too high too fast.


WCT-wb : Has been moving higher since I cleared her much earlier(again). RSI at 69, at what level should we queue to if we want to grab her? Placing it at 0.91 and 0.87. It is difficult catching such a moving wagon .

TEH
10.55 am : KLCI down 2.4 points. I m down with fever and cough too. Down down ... but not out?

SPSetia : Touched 6.30 ... hmm ... down too ... queue at 0.215 done for SPSetia-cc. Wow ... I was up 15% yesterday morning, today I m down 6% now. SPSetia-wb down 14%. Selling or buying? I will alert PT, my student to dare him to buy. Haha.

Kinstel : Wow ... sold my 0.90 portion at RM1.00. Again that is not expected.

LionInd : I bought back at 2.10, it went to touched 2.06, I think. Today at 2.15. I want more of her at RM2.00 but not with steel starts to move, I might add her at 2.15 market price now.

AnnJoo-wb : At 0.77 now, been accumulating and doing well. Resistance at 0.79, so I will claer half at 0.790. Noted.

YTLLand : Down to 1.75 now ... see?? Now as many rushing in at 1.90 level(touched 1.96). So, tell me ... when should I buy her back?

DRB-cc : A consolation to my CWs list which many in deep red. This one up 8% at the moment.

Breaking All the Rules



3.05 pm : SPSetia-wb down 15% at 1.89, touched intra-day low at 1.83. Queue 1.80, ya.

Kencana-cf : OSK is offering this one .. should I subscibe to it? Hmm ... with my Kencana-cc still in hand, I think I will give it a skip.

HuaYang : Moving again ... nice.

Plantation : Many stocks down ... TDM, HSPlant, TSH, BStead ...

4.20 pm : KLCI in red ... down 6 points. Tenaga and Support still in red.

SPSetia-wb : Up to 1.89 now ... still watching. Will like to see it drops further tmr.

TEH

Monday, January 17, 2011

11.55 am : BUSY BUSY BUSY .. I just had my quick b/fast and lunch as I hv classes from 8 am to 11 am. This morning I woke up late 7am as I m not feeling so well. The fever and cough caught from my boy and wife. They went to see doctor last night and tonight I might need to visit the doctor. I m tired ... and still another 3 hours to go!! Arrghh ...

MHB-ca : Cleared.

7.20 pm : KLCI up 4.8 points.

I have taken my medication and need to rest. No analysis today.

night

TEH

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Oil and Gas

Alam
: This is another good trade, as I was down when it dived due to Vastalux debts news. This will be a good case-study to share. The crazy selling, I saw it went below RM0.90. Today, it is at RM1.20 level again. Local broker houses as always, came out to downgrade her with target price by OSK is RM1.00, I think(from RM1.60, ok??). If you listen too much to those target prices, you will CRY. So ... when to sell her? You may see BUYING is back AFTER it rebounded more than 10-20%. Logical?


Kencana : Strong uptrending, playing on oil-n-gas and election-rally. Touched RM2.66, MA10 support.Wait for RM2.52, MA20 support but I do doubt it could retrace to that level. We shall watch ...



MHB : RSI at 82, try to catch her when RSI 70. Waiting for RM6.22, perhaps. This strong uptrending new IPO-ed stock has been in overbought region for as long as it is listed. It only took a few days of breather to come back strongly to continue its uptrend. Has added RM2 + from its IPO value. Incredible and one of the best IPO around(I think Cypark is the best at the moment?). Using MA10 and volume reaction, we could wait for RM6.22 for the buying. The volume of selling should be low as it continues its uptrend.


Sapcres : RSI at 66, drops from a high of 87. Wait for 3.27 and 3.13 to grab more. Strong uptrending stock with huge orderbook. Could benefit well from the current oil-n-gas theme and seeing the uptrend to continue ... how high could it go?

TEH
Sunday morning ... just back from children playground. Bought a nice bicycle for my boy's 5th b/day.

There are MANY books in market I have collected over the three years. Some I do not even read a topic but some simplier ones, I have re-read a few times, especially those I highlighted and to remind myself about some important pointers ... in my trading and/or investing.


Learning Corner : Books to read


Books that I do like to re-read


Months ago, there are few readers asked me what materials I m reading and such. Yes, I will put in here a few books ... of my fav bed-time reading now.






Adam Khoo's "Secret of Millionaire Investors". This is one of my first book that I bought in Dec2007, days before I entered KLSE. As I was reading the first charter or two, I was trying to APPLY whatever I am reading into markets!! That is how I m learning ... trial-n-error of whatever I read, listened and seen. The experiences I gathered were much more valuable than the profits or losses(I lost a lot in 2008, ok? and I know it is good for me!!).

The green-book ... is my current 7-students next text-book, after Pauline's FEAR and GREED. Yes, I m independent and NOT promoting their books. I do NOT get anything from Pauline, ya.

The white-book, Profit from the Panic bought a year later. You see, whenever I buy a book(at least two per month as I have allocated some investments in my knowledge acquirements)I do not expect to gain or profit from market. That is NOT MY PLAN. I m only interested with WHAT I could learn from the book and can I apply the theories or knowledge I have acquired? Yup, I m one of the VERY FEW who went into market but NOT thinking of profits!! I dont even bother about losses!! I was LEARNING to do things right. I was experimenting!! Yes, very few of them. If you read the stats that 80% of them STILL losing money in markets, you will understand that it is only logical for us to DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT. We cant succeed in anything by doing what the crowds or herds are doing.

So, get the books ... read ... understand ... and apply. jot down your experiences. That will be my nexxt topic for my students new week.

Topic : Writing trading plans and journals.

So, for those novice who know NOTHING about stock-market, I have been kind enough to share with many what I m coaching my current first batch of students, and putting them in the right track of gaining from their investments. Look long term what you could gain in FUTURE.

I am going to re-read the green-book again these few coming weeks so that I could share more with my students when I m asking them to buy the text-book. Already few of them have bought the book!! Good motivation!!

As I said, I am NOT TA-kaki, actually but simply because I used some TA terms doesnt mean I know anything much about them, ok? Such as RSI, MACD or even SMA. I knew and read about these before I joined CNX, ok? And I m certainly NOT a CNX promoter. Again, I m independent ... but I hv to be slightly careful of writing about CNX as MANY from there are reading these lines. I do not want to be the person pushing or pulling businesses. Yes, to them it is business. To me, it is education. I dread to see a retired English teacher paid thousands to learn Technical Analysis. It is un-imaginable ... how she could cope. You mean they REALLY go to CNX to learn TA? Hmm ... be honest.

Time to go CNY shopping. Later.


TEH

12.55 am : Yeah ... I have been reading for 4 hours now ... I did not do much reading for the whole one week due to my busyness.

Question : How do you find the value of 'beta' of a stock traded in KLSE?

Example : Tebrau's beta value at 1.528, given in today's The Star paper.

That is a valid question that my student, PT, asked as I never really bother to find out!! I feel it is irrelevent to my buying/selling of stocks!!

How do I gauge the volatility of a stock then? Simple ... view the whole chart vs KLCI. Then, it is a comparatively value, anyway. If the differences are larger, it is of higher beta! Haha ... yes, I do many things and analysis using COMMON sense, which are NOT common for those in markets. Some so-called genius want to know all the ratios correct to 4 decimals(at least), and all buying signals in place before he is convinced to BUY. If I said RSI, he will want to know the formula, the history to how it is derived! Hmm ... we do have such donkeys in KLSE, ok?

I told my students this simple concept of 'marriage'. You do not need to know your future's partner best-friend's second aunty to marry him/her, ok? Know what I mean? Hehe.

Learning Corner

source : www.stock.about.com

Do you know your stocks’ beta?

If you do, what does it mean and should you be concerned?

Beta is one of the most used and misused of the financial ratios. First off, let’s review what a beta is, then look at how you can use it in a meaningful way.

The beta is a measure of a stock’s price volatility in relation to the rest of the market. In other words, how does the stock’s price move relative to the overall market.

Beta Calculated

The number is calculated for you (thank goodness) using regression analysis. The whole market, which for this purpose is considered the S&P 500, is assigned a beta of 1. There is no single index used to calculate beta, although the S&P 500 is probably the most common proxy for the market as a whole.

Stocks that have a beta greater than 1 have greater price volatility than the overall market and are more risky.

Note : Change S&P 500 to KLCI for KLSE's stocks, ya

Stocks with a beta of 1 fluctuate in price at the same rate as the market.

Stocks with a beta of less than 1 have less price volatility than the market and are less risky.

Beta and Risk

Of course, there is more to it than that. Risk also implies return. Stocks with a high beta should have a higher return than the market. If you are accepting more risk, you should expect more reward.

For example, if the market with a beta of 1 is expected to return 8%, a stock with a beta of 1.5 should return 12%. If you don’t see that level of return, then the stock is not a good investment possibility.

Stocks with a beta below 1 may be a safer investment (at least by this one measure) and you should expect a lower return.

Beta seems to be a great way to measure the risk of any stock. If you look a young, technology stocks, they will always carry high betas. Many utilities on the other hand, carry betas below 1.

Finding Betas

You can also compare a stock’s beta to its sector to get a picture of whether the stock is out of line with its peers.

You can find a stock’s beta through a number of online services such as offered by Reuters.

You have to register (it’s free) to get to the level of detail where you can find a stock’s beta among the listed ratios.

Problems with Beta

While the may seem to be a good measure of risk, there are some problems with relying on beta scores alone for determining the risk of an investment.

•Beta looks backward and history is not always an accurate predictor of the future.
•Beta also doesn’t account for changes that are in the works, such as new lines of business or industry shifts.
•Beta suggests a stock’s price volatility relative to the whole market, but that volatility can be upward as well as downward movement. In a sustained advancing market, a stock that is outperforming the whole market would have a beta greater than 1.

How to Use Beta

Investors can find the best use of the beta ratio in short-term decision-making, where price volatility is important. If you are planning to buy and sell within a short period, beta is a good measure of risk.

However, as a single predictor of risk for a long-term investor, the beta has too many flaws. Careful consideration of a company’s fundamentals will give you a much better picture of the potential long-term risk.

TEH : I am a practical person in market. You dont have to show me that you know how to calculate the 'beta' or give me the formula. I am not interested. What I m more interested and concerned will be ... DO YOU KNOW HOW TO USE THOSE VALUES to trade your stocks in the right manner? So what you know Tebrau's beta value at 1.528. SO WHAT?

Beijing welcomes you - still very nice and like it very much.


TEH

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Wind-Power

Wind of Change in China

Crazy windmills



The World's Fastest Growing Energy Source




There Is No Energy Crisis, There is a Crisis of Ignorance




China's Green Beat - Wind Power in China




China takes the lead in wind energy development



China Wind Power Internatioal Corp


TEH
12.20 am : DOW at 11,750 level. We might be seeing 12,000 soon. Many screaming BULL is running ... and many stocks are overbought. BUY BUY BUY!! So, many target prices upgraded. Yes, that is main job of an analyst - UPGRADE and DOWNGRADE stocks whenever they think the crowd is going ... they cant be wrong, right?

I want to write on ny LionInd trades, a very interesting no-brainer way. Also, IJMPlant-wa, WCT-wb, YTLLand ... and many more. This is bull market, getting 10% in less than 1 month is not as difficult.

Those who bought into a moving, uptrending stocks should gain much. FOLLOW THE TREND is my current policy. You dont see me searching for waterfalls with RSI below 30, right? I m still stalking Support and I still like Tenaga but generally, I will prefer to move in a fast pace uptrending stock. There are many to mention a few. SPSetia and Kencana are highly in my list. Naim and BStead are very nice too(moved but could move higher).

So, when a strong uptrending stock is moving higher into overbought region, I asked my student, WX, to check during its correction. For example, currently Sapcres and Kencana are down ... if one is still bullish on them, buying during correction is only LOGICAL, right? No?? Hmm ...

9.10 am : Parents-Teacher meeting

Yes, I am working again this Saturday, supposed to attend ECM market-talk this morning. Next Sat I do register for CNX's traders club meeting but I am afraid I wont be free again. I will attend any market-talk as I like talking about stock-market!! Haha.

11.10 am : Non-stop concerned parents seeking to ask about their big boys/girls performances.




LionInd : It was at the peak of 2.15, came down to RM2.00 when I started to buy at first level. Then, it came down to RM1.90 for my second level of buying. As 'fate' has it, North Koreans wanted to rock the stock-markets(may be syndicated to buy cheap stocks?) ... booom!! Ok, it dived to my third level at RM1.80. At that point of time, I have to plan to buy at RM1.70, ok? Now, we all could see it is uptrending, we do know KLSE was bullish then too ... we have constructions news out now and then telling us more projects will be launched? These will give us EXCUSES to buy into building material stocks and LionInd has always been KLSE-kaki favourite. Dont ask me why ... I m only three years in market, ok? Perhaps the name ... LION ... it is the king of the jungle? To tame the king, you need to be a Tarzan? Oppsss ... too much of cartoons for me! Haha.

Back to my LionInd trades ... It reversed after 1.80 ... to 1.90 and stayed there a while. Ok, it starts to move again to RM2.00, and I cleared RM1.80 portion at RM2.00. You wont believe it, I was LUCKY as it moved higher ... to RM2.10 for me to clear my RM1.90 portion. Nice ... I was perparing to BUY back at RM2, then. It did not retraces BUT continued its strong uptrending ... with more HERDS rushing in to push it to RM2.20 and my last portion of RM2 done. Since I have sold LionInd at 2.20 ... it is overbought, it will come down? It might fly off to RM2.30, right? Yup.

It retraces ... and as FATE has it, I bought it back at RM2.10 now. Why I did not wait for RM2 this time? Look, at times ... we need to be REALISTIC. It is uptrending, do you think I want to see LionInd drops to RM1.70?? That is downtrending by then!!

You guess it right ... I will be buying at RM2 the next level. And so on ... this no-brainer trading plan works well for uptrending stocks in bullish market. If possible, a higher beta stock will give us the volatility needed to trade.

This is just an illustration on how I trade LionInd WITHOUT check much on its TA or blah-blah ... noises.

Note : I m doing that with TopGlove too. Bought RM5.50 then RM5.00. Then, I sold my RM5.00 at RM5.50 ... today it is down to RM5.25 now, guess what ... I will buy buy at RM5.00 and prepare to buy more at RM4.50. Mind you, it is still in downtrending ...

Back to December



Yes, arent we wish we could go back to December to BUY so many stocks which has not moved then?
TEH

Friday, January 14, 2011

It is Friday ... time to clear some stocks today.

Alam : Touched 1.25 yesterday. Time to take profits?

Kinstel : Moving up to RM1 again?

YTLLand : Going into new high ... might hold on to this one and top-up when it corrects.

Invest vs Trade

As it is bullish, I think that buy-n-hold will work better than those contra-trades or short-term trading. With CWs being used to trade with a week or two time frame, I will be holding on to few stocks. In fact, I m thinking of clearing off Alam and Kinstel to focus in only two stocks!! Which one should I choose?

With election rally in mind and O&G rallying too, Kencana could benefit here. S'wak stock and construction which I like Naim has moved. Should I move the funds into these two?

As for plantation, Kwantas is still doing ok ... but waiting for breakout. That could only happens when plantation counters start to move again. Now, I do like HSPlant as it is correcting now. Should I change Kwantas with HSPlant? Hmm ...

BStead : Breaching RM5.90 and we are seeing RM6 soon. I missed her. Hmm ...

So, am I choosing Kencana for O&G? Naim for S'wak play? And HSPlant for plantation? YTLLand for property? How about Tenaga?

Britney Spears - Oops!...I Did It Again



11.25 am : Checking on my queues, KLCI in red.

Jaks : Doing well today ... hold to it then.

YTLLand : I m holding to mine ... into wonderland now. At 1.80 level now.

UEMLand-cc : Diving ... good to take profit yesterday. This is one good trade done, pat on the back.

BJCorp-cc : Another one which I exited well, tho no profits registered. It is diving now. The news over?

Kencana-cc : Yesterday morning, at one point I saw that I was up 25%, now it is only 10%. That is called call-warrants. Haha. Kencana to look at 2.55.

Sapcres : Looking at 3.32 level to buy more ....

MHB-ca : Was up 10% yesterday, back to my cost price. ouch.

WahSeong : Certainly recovering well ... at 2.40 now. Up again today in my list.

SPSetia : In red today ... RSI above 90, ok?

MahSing :Doing very well ... noted.

LionInd : Bought back at 2.10

My '7' Students

As I m too busy to check on them, I will have to rely on their feedbacks. You know Malaysians ... err ... you dont ask, they wont say anything!! You need to like initiate anything for them. Creativity is certainly lacking!! Look at KLSE ... thousands in market, some DO NOT go beyond the few so-called blue chips for past 20 years!!

So, I m teaching my students 'Opportunity Cost" last week ... then, they could understand WHY majority 'lazy but greedy' KLSE-kaki losing money(yes, even in BULLEST market) or did not profit as much as they should I even told them that 10% per month is achievable with KNOWLEDGE and EXPREINCE. I m a living proof to them ... and I did shown some of my students my real trade to CONVINCE them that trades need to be REAL. WHAT?? Some asking to use fake-a/c.

YH : Done well with her two trades WCT(3.00 to 3.50) and GenM (3.20 to 3.60). Bought YTLPower at 2.40.

WK : Only a short RM200 profits for short trade so far. Bought YTLPower at 2.40 too.

WY : Holding to her GenM at 3.30.

PT : Bought PPB at 16.75, but today he told me he gained 10% in a week on two trades : WCT-wb and SPSetia-wb. Naughty boy following his cikgu's buying! Hmm ... must whack his butt if he didnt treat me lunches.

Note : Had lunch with him - profit also this teacher want to cakap-banyak. I reminded him about RISK. Chasing things up without a plan in hand is RISKY. I did not teach them how to chase a momentum stocks etc etc. They are too new but guess this young man like to take rollercoaster ride. Haha. He is also my most advance students as he done a lot of reading by himself to ask me a lot of questions.

WX : She is sideline till today ... so, I want her to move in. Buy, no question asked. Haha.

Call Warrants (cc)

Many of my cc in reds today!! Which one should I top-up today? Hmm ... I added IGB-cc and MRCB-cc to my cc list. Hehe ... added in stalk list, not buying la. Must save my bleeding 'cc's first.

Question : Ok, YTLLand in new high ... RSI at very high now with today up 8%. Should I hold, buy more or sell? Now, these are in traders mind everyday.

NJ : My first client and still with me ... I m glad as I hope to foster longer term of clients. Thanks sir. He has profitted many ... but there are still KFC which still not moving. Other than that, HuaYang, BStead, WCT he bought has profitted well. It takes time to foster the trust, sir. Be patient.

JO : This is a nice client I m having at the moment. Profitted from IJMLand-wa before the dive and sold all his YTLLand at 1.74 level. He bought at 1.55 and top-up at 1.62.

Alert : I will send out alert to some of my clients when I m buying into some stocks. So, it is up to them to buy into them(or not). I trusted my clients so far ... most of them have more than RM30k to buy. So, I m not so worry if they wont pay me the 'fees' when they bought into any I recommended. Also, some are kind to give me 'bonus'. I do appreciate such human. Money aside, it is the nice gesture and mutual respect I treasured. Thanks.

So, to be fair to these few clients of mine, I no longer writing what I m buying. My so-called stock pickings cant be accurate all the time, anyway. In bull-market, buy anything that moving, sure profit!! Hehe.

YTLLand : Reaching 1.90 now ... ask again, should I hold to my portions or sell for good profits now? Or top-up? Hmm ...

4.35 pm : YTLLand, Cleared. Thanks and see you when you come down, ok?

So today .. in the midst of a very busy schedule, I cleared YTLLand moments ago, bought LionInd at 2.08&2.10, also grabbed two CWs.

Sweet Dreams - I like this song a lot. Dream on ... in YTL-land ...



YTLLand : Alice in Wonderland case now ... Yes, I have 2 friends and 2 clients bought into it when I started to grab at 1.50 level. The 'late-comers' bought at 1.60, yet today ... it makes wonder. It breaks into new high ... flying with RSI will be at 80+ level today.

Then, last week I have a chance to show two of my students WY and WK on WHY I bought into YTLLand and said this one could fly soon ... watch. Yes, I m teaching them to look for 3 good reasons to BUY a stock at a certain level. Then, ask ... when to sell? Yes, plan to SELL before ever you BUY. Think RISK before PROFIT. Reduce the risk.

Luckily my client, a veteran in KLSE, sms-ed me and said he has no regret of selling his portion this morning at 1.75 level. You see, I received another sms from my friend(he does not read my blog? haha) who sold his portion YESTERDAY and was very glad with the profits, also dinner on him la ... blah blah ... suddenly today he REGRETed he sold his portion!! I have to 'console' him ... that is how difficult to deal with GREED of a person. Yesterday said I m brilliant, today said ... hai-ya, why you didnt tell me you have not sell your portion? If like that, I hv to SMS him for two weeks that I did not sell mine?!

In my mind, I was thinking ... let it be. I will take my free dinner from him but ... err ... sorry friend, I wont sms you anymore stocks to buy!! If he is reading these lines now, he will sms me tonight! Haha.

What I dislike ... these people DO NOT know anything about market but want you to give them the fish to eat(for free, if possible) ... then, when profit, they will jump like hell. But if the stock go down, they will curse you. These people are EVERYWHERE in KLSE ... they are THE HERD. YTLLand up to 1.90, you could start to see the herds are here ...

I shown YH just now ... see? I m selling my YTLLand at 1.89 now, ok? She said ... how come these people still chasing up the stock? Then, as a teacher ... I will said "HERD MENTALITY".



TEH