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Monday, November 15, 2010

Marc Faber : Taken personally by me. To me, he is my 'guru'.

Pauline Yong : This Sat I will like to shake-hand with Pauline and take a picture of her, and post it here next week.
FEAR and GREED by Pauline Yong

I have asked my five 'students' to buy this book as an initial reference!! Yes, Pauline ... you need to treat me teh-tarik. Haha.

I will be meeting Pauline Yong on her talk this coming Sat and claim my drink, then.

Next, I will be sharing with them Risk vs Reward in my first lesson with them. Their homework will be digesting first few chapters of Pauline's book and assignment will be given. And they MUST open a trading a/c by next week. Yes, I will treat them as students. They are my friends, my colleagues, ok? So, I have to make sure I m guiding them WELL. Hopefully.

Finally, I m starting a class after some planning. I will teach them Fundamental Analysis. This will take some time but those VERY hardworking one will learn well. We are educationists ourselves, of coz we could understand about teaching-learning better.

It is more of sharing rather than teaching. It is guiding and facilitate rather than one-way teaching. I m a strict lecturer and most of my students know it. But, generally most of my students could understand those Further Maths(deem to be a difficult subject) that I m teaching them. Yes, I m a good lecturer as many of my students will agree.

Teaching Maths is different as I hv 20 years in it and doing it very well. My Maths also VERY strong, making teaching Maths fun to me. I feel relax when teaching FMath. Haha. I was teaching 'probability density function' just now ... and thinking of the charts where I could 'normalise' them. Haha.

wow : Starting to be an irritating reader, trying to make a fuss here. You could see why these human have all the time to go into blogs to make a fuss. Teach me, without good attitudes, HOW are we going to be successful in our lives? By not being nice, and shit in other people's house, we are seen as no-manner dog. Un-trained and un-attended. Stray dogs. He is a REAL human behind the pc typing words to irritate others BUT it iw worthless to speak to these human, they are stray-dogs. That is how I m seeing these 'human'. Hence, I will need to remind myelf to ignore such dogs. Just clean their shits and do precaution. Perhaps, buy a sign saying "Beware of stray dogs".

Beta : A measure of a stock volatility in relation to the market. Lower beta, lower volatility and vice versa.

Example : If the beta is 1.00, then if KLCI up 2%, the stock should theoritically move up 2% too. If the beta is 2.00, the the stock will be moving up 4%. If the beta = zero, independent. I hope I have answered one of the question asked in my chat-box. Because the chat-box is being abused now, I m thinking of taking it out.


Normalising a probability density function(pdf)

Ok, let me share some basic statistics I m teaching my students who are doing FMaths. If you cant even cope with Maths or given back those theories you learnt years ago to your teachers, let me share what I m teaching today.

I was teaching pdf graphs. The area under the pdf curve represents PROBABILITY. In stats, everything is about pb, no certainty. Just like in markets. If anyone tell you AirAsia SURE rebound to form a hammer today, be suspicious. I do hear all these in daily basis.

Let us look into pdf curve/graph. They are NOT normally distributed, of coz. Only ONE specific pdf giving us the normal curve. Obviously, the total area below the normal curve is ONE. If you have to ask why ONE, then the following will be too challenging for you!

So, I am going to teach my students Central Limit Theorem(in two months time!!) ... which stated that, by taking a large sample, the mean of ANY distribution(of any pdf) will approximate to normal distribution!! Hence, we could use normal distribution to estimate the probability that the mean of the sample taken within certain intervals.

UNDERSTAND? I was thinking of normalising my pdf graphs - WTF you are telling me about MA, EMA for? Plain stray-dogs ... dont shit around.

Note : 'wow' replied and said what written about pdf and CLT is wrong. He meant in-correct. Hmm ... that shows he is FREE, reading these lines and do know statistics!! See? We could get these dogs to do our chores if we could control them. Otherwise, they might bite.

To wow : Since when do I write what is right in my mind, anyway? Haha. You are new to my blog. Welcome. Just stop barking. I will like to learn more from you, if you dont bite? Shake hands?

Question : A simple test for you, dog. MA vs EMA. Do you know the difference? Tell me 3 differences and HOW it is being apply using different strategies. If I m trading a warrant with higher beta, should I be using MA or EMA. Also, tell me how many days of MA or EMA you are using. Stop talking-cock about all the MA when people talking about A-level Mathematic, a simple CLT. Excuse me, we dont learn MA in A-level syllabus? You have not done your college level Maths? I will teach you for free when I m free to clean dog-shit, ok? Stop degrading yourself. I make me want to shit. Oppsss ... I need to take a break to shit.

Arrogance : Recently, I do have a check if my head filling with hot-air. Hot-air to me is like a bubble, bursting anytime soon. So, yes ... if I m arrogant, I will make sure I keep my feet on the ground.

I do not have the time to reply e-mail and such. That does NOT mean I m arrogant. I have written about these AGAIN and AGAIN previously but due to many new readers here, they DO NOT know me or how busy I am. Some even thought I m a remisier. So, I do not reply sms too as it cost me MONEY and TIME. Do you know how many sms I need to send per day? Also the time spent to reply sms etc etc. TIME is what I do not have. SORRY.

Recently, AC and KG re-load for me. So, what I wont mind replying their sms whenever I could remember or free. Normally, I m in my 'own world' and could not know what is going on around. Imagine 50 charts in my head, and I could visualise AirAsia chart this morning when it broken 2.25 level and able to write here LIVE in my blog. It touched 2.21(imagine how I could remember this one to write it here as I hv about 50 stocks in my stalk list now) ... and rebounded. So, I grabbed at 2.25 as 2.25 is support level, understand?

So, yes ... nice people could understand that I m NOT oblige to answer anyone's e-mail or sms but those nice one, I will be nice to them too. I need to be selective as we need to utilise our time for discussions with HUMAN, not dogs. Dogs just bark ... and if you ignore them they might just go away or perhaps trying to bite you. That is just dogs nature. HUMAN is God's creation ... with BRAIN. It is matter is we use our brains given to us. It is all depending if we are brought up in good manner to understand situations.

Trading could be very stressful for some. It should be. But if we could plan it out nicely, we just need to monitor and excute it. We also need to accept DEFEAT. These are only possible if you are a HUMAN using brain, not emotions. Mr Market likes those using emotion to trade. yum-yum .. and you are in some buaya-mouth.

Ok ... enough about that. I shit-out. haha. Back to work ...


Why FEAR & GREED are important elements to be discussed even before a person move into markets? Well, stocks move UP and DOWN due to many factor and the main one is driven by FEAR and GREED. For us to shut-off those noises, we MUST recognise that fear&greed(F&G) in play. But looking at things more objectively, rather than listening to noises, we could re-act and make a more rational decisions. F&G ... it is ALL in us, just a matter of degree or extend.

Time to analyse some charts and see any changes in the 50 stocks I m stalking.

TEH

2 comments:

Kris said...

CPTeh,

You are one of the local Malaysian bloggers that have a strong background in Mathematics :P

If you do a google, one of the most successful hedge funds are mathematicians. haha

KnowThymoney

Anonymous said...

Strong? academic .....