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Saturday, November 20, 2010

5.30 am : DOW up a little. I wore a green shirt for last night dinner at PICC. Good guess again. Hehe.

Pauline Yong : I will be attending Pauline's talk later. Yes, I read her book "I love stock" 2 years ago and last year she came out with "Fear and Greed" which I m asking my 'students' to get it as their first book to guide them It is kinda advance-book a those never in market!! But, I know how to APPLY the book in my sharing! Hehe.

Topics:

1. Personal Financial Planning
2. About value investing
3. Fundamental Analysis
- Annual reports
- Financial ratios
- Analyst reports
4. Technical Analysis
- Price volume analysis
- Price charts
- Technical indicator
5. Market Psychology




Lee Hyori - 10 minutes





I seldom listen to Korean's songs but I do like this hot-song by hot singer!! I seldom(or never?) put a picture of a singer! Haha.

10-minutes before market closing is a very important minutes for me as I started to visualise now the candle-sticks would be to decide if I m going to grab more a stock I bought earlier or clear it as a day-trading stock.

10-minutes a stock could shoot up more than 10%, and a quick decision to sell. In 10 minutes a stock could dive down 10% and a quick decision to buy. These happen so quick as I made many split-seconds decision ... as 10-minutes is very short in market.

When AirAsia dived that day to my RM2.25 level in 10-minutes, I hv to execute my BUY decision, all in less than 10 minutes!!

3.45 pm : Went to Pauline's talk this morning - will like to summerise her simple talk tonight.

I need to nap as I woke up early to check on my charts. Tired. zzzzzzzzzzz

Pauline : Yes, nice meeting you too.

points to write : pauline's PRINCED, the uncle who bought scomi-wa; the small crowd, PT.

Personal Financial Planning : She touched briefly on being 'frugal', prudence in our spending and to save more(and invest). I m checking if I m still living frugally as I m in KL now, where I could see cost-of-living is higher, with needs or wants are higher now. So, it reminds me about this pointer. Be FRUGAL.

Credit-cards : Yes, with 18% p.a, I will withdraw some money in Dec to clear 80% of my credit-card debts.

Economics data : GDP, CPI, PPI, Interest rates, US Housing Price, Unemployment rate, Balance of Trade, Budget Spending, Crude Oil price, FDI.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/

Value investing vs Momentum Investing

While she practicing Value Investing, we are in the stage of Momentum Investing at the moment. It will be difficult to find stocks with P/E less than 10, ok? So, I will like to write abo9ut my idea to momentum investing at the moment. AVERAGING UP is the idea in bull market. Any corrections should be seen as BUYING opportunities. What you buy is important. AGAIN, I NEVER refer to those goreng-get-rich stocks such as KBunai, Jotech, HWGB, Tejari, Iris and such. Not even Time or Timecom.

Fundamental Analysis(FA) : To me, everyone SHOULD start from FA. It is the CORE in investing. That explains WHY I started my class last week with P/E(EPS), ROE and DY.

P : P/E ratio

R : ROE

I : Institutional buyers

N : NTA

C : Current Environmental Scan

E : EPS

D : DY

Question : Is NTA = P/BV?

Annual Report : She gave Proton as example.

TEH : I do not like Proton as Value Investing as tho its P/E is lower that average sector P/E, there is not much business growth in Proton. Tho its NTA is high, the utilisation is weak. And ... well, Proton is GLC with news of merger always emerge!! Haha. Proton? That is my car as it is the cheapest. I m practising living my lifestyle below my means!!

Analyst report : She used CIMB's report on Maybank - outperform with Target Price RM9.50.

TEH : I did mentioned to her that I wont like Maybank, and also the 'outperform' is not a buy as she mentioned 'outperform' is a buy. That encourages 'herd mentality' which majority of them do not profit much in bull-market and lose money in bear market! Serious. Then, I further to give her example of SELL SPSetia from many analyst reports last year where I asked my friend to BUY her at Rm3.70 level. It came down in AUG 2009 after all these SELL call, from RM4.50 to NOV 2009. Yes, RM3.70 during NOV, I was in KL to have dinner with my friend, SL and ask her to BUY SPSetia to hold for a year. Haha. Today, after a year, it is at RM5.20 now.

So, I told her that it is mis-leading to ask those lack of knowledge investors to BUY for outperform analyst reports and sell for those underperform. I m a contrarian. I stands to say that many of those reports are IN-CORRECT. This is market, very volatile ... so, analyst report should be taken with just a pinch of salt. I can write a whole page about these. Haha

Technical Analysis (TA) : She is not a technical person, all based on FA ... so, I could not blame her for in-correct information given. Many dont know much about these too, as the 'small' audience comprises of many young boys/girls with only 4 uncles/aunties. Surprising? I m one uncle there. Haha. Yes, I do not voice out anything about TA as I know she is not technical person.

If you are going for value-investing, TA is less significance. Just buy in stages the counter you like. Buy when KLCI drops 10 points for 3 days!! That explained why I was buying from Thu-Tues ... and sell some yesterday for huge profits in days , ok? Of coz, a risk-player like me go for warrants/call-warrants. That is NOT value-investing. That is short-term punting! Hehe.

Market psychology : FEAR vs GREED is discussed.

PT : Well, that is more or less being discussed in her very basic investing idea. I brought my 'student' PT along. So far, PT is the most hard-working student showing high enthusism. Good. See if he could cope with more work, more seminars, more contradictions of what you read and what you do etc etc. I m a learner myself but I have advanced fast compare to MANY who have been in KLSE for years and years. Some dont even know where to start if they want to learn. It is all hard-work, PT. I m not I m today IF I m just those normal investors/traders. I woke-up 5.30am this morning preparing myself mentally for the talk, anticipating what she is going to say(I m almost 80% correct but she speak too basic to my understanding) ... PT, you are doing OK but be resilient ... VERY VERY resilient. We need right attitudes to be in market. Yup.

The small crowd : I m very surprised with the small crowd. Around 30-40 of them with so many CIMB promoters! The small crowd is important showing that we are nnot in hysteria stage yet. Haha. Reminding me of Amah-syndrome.

The uncle who bought Scomi-wa

This old couple sitting at my back row. He asked Pauline's about Scomi's NTA which at 90cents(I dont know as I do not look into Scomi anymore, it is a speculative counter). So, at 40cents, Scomi is cheap?

Then, when we have refreshments, I asked him if he owns Scomi. He said he bought Scomi-wa at 0.195 recently. "WHAT?? ", I was controlling myself ... and probed further. So, Mr-Scomi, buying warrant means you are a trader! I exclaimed. He said he just buy for one-bit profit and sell. "WHAT??". But, Scomi-wa is with high premium and Scomi is a speculative counter. So, you are short-term speculator? I suggested that he look into YTLPower-wb, for example. He said "no volume in that". "WHAT??". "Excuse me, Mr Scomi ... err ... do your homework-la. Not everyone dont know anything about market, u know". Then, I said ... YTLPower-wb is better than Scomi-wa. He looked a bit upset, ignored me and turned away!!

Based on questions i posted to Pauline, he could have known that I m a little knowledgable and exprienced in stock-market kinda uncle. Yup, he has EGO matter here. Also, he has 'lack of knowledge' matter. He is a retired uncle, talking stocks to her nice wife. I thought I could share a little of what I knew with him ... but, I have reminded myself to shut-up. I should have!


RSI of stocks

Adventa : RSI 43.37

AEON : RSI 55.39

AirAsia : RSI 53.49

Alam : RSI 53.16

AMMB : RSI 59.48

AnnJoo : RSI 44.65

AZRB : RSI 55.62

Bolton : RSI 39.56

BRDB : RSI 52.38

BStead : RSI 51.28

Bursa : RSI 48.00

CIMB : RSI 54.76

Dialog : RSI 71.81

E&O : RSI 50.24

EAH : RSI 65.25

Evergreen : RSI 40.01

Gamuda : RSI 48.68

Genting : RSI 46.61

GenM :

HuaYang : RSI 44.95

Jaks : RSI 40.91

JCY : RSI 39.34

Jerneh : RSI 56.66

Kencana : RSI 69.89

KimLun : RSI 50.39

Kinsteel : RSI 47.04

LionInd : RSI 53.89

Malton : RSI 61.73

Muhibah : RSI 67.80

Salcon : RSI 61.48

Sapcrest :

Sunway : RSI 69.71

Supermax : RSI 52.30

TA : RSI 57.19

Tenaga : RSI 45.49

TopGlove : RSI 55.36

TWSCorp : RSI 35.72

Unisem : RSI 54.64

WCT : RSI 45.46

YTLPower : RM2.60 with RSI 71.22

TEH

2 comments:

Imoogi said...

Hello Teh,referenced to your note below that buy low sell high is better than buy high sell high. I believe both works...see Nicolas Darvas theory who buy high and sell higher...in 18 months from US10000 to US2000000. So as long as there's money to make it doesnt matter which is bettter...both works.

CP said...

Hi

Yes, I agreed. f coz both works but depending on what works better - that is just my opinion that I m comfortable with.

I do buy Muhibah at a high RSi 72. I do buy many more at a new high only to sell it in days at higher price.

Thanks for pointing out. The writing are refering to MYSELF. Hehe

Note that I m going for Salcon, Sumway, YTLpower and such and they are at a high. I will sell higher, hopefully.



TEH