Thursday, November 04, 2010

3.45 am : I m having cough for a week now, and waking me up. DOW is flat and reading abot QE2. That could boost markets further ... and we shall see how far these craziness could go, making sure to run for your life when it collapses. HSI at the high too ... wow, we are in a bull-run.

We had one of the best Sept ... and normally markets perform well in NOV-DEC which some called in year-end rally.

In such a bullish market, should we hold on to those oversold downtrending stocks? SEG-wa is very nice now. Time to grab some and put it in the drawer for keep. Buy-n-forget?

Ok, continue my sleep. Till later.

4.10 am : counter : 257, 090 and 11.50 pm : 258, 010 : That is 920 clicks so far. So, as I estimated, it is around 1k click per trading day!! Adding another 80 clicks with another 4 hours to go wont be difficult.

8.10 am : QE2 of USD600b ... more money will be flowing and that could push HSI higher ... are we in a bubble-in-the-making? When interest rates maintained low, many actually taken their money out from FD and such to move into stock-markets. When KLCI reaching 1550 due to the craziness ... then, we need to check on MORE goreng-counter get-rick-quick empty shells being goreng, more uncles/aunties talking about how much they have profitted from market .. and also began to ask their 'stupid' auntie-friends to withdraw their money from the bank to 'INVEST' in stock markets, we know that HUGE correction is around the corner. So, I will want to elaborate on Mr Ooi's timely article.

Warning : If you are those uncles/aunties buying HWGB, JoTech and such, DO NOT continue to read if you are easily offended.

Oh Boy, i need to place warnings here and there before writing next time(sigh). It is like SX18 or SG18 ... those warnings? Haha

OOI : The recent rally in our local bourse has prompted many seasoned investors, especially those who experienced the super bull run in 1993, to wonder whether the current rally is about to turn into a real bull run. Of course, nobody can tell for sure what will happen next, but we certainly can do some homework, comparing the circumstances back in 1993 against the current situation.

TEH : I m only in market in the beginning of 2008 which I witnessed a huge melt-down and lost more than half of my capitals due to ignorance etc etc. So, I was not there in 1993

OOI : In 1991, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad unveiled the philosophy of “Malaysia Incorporated” which was a development strategy for Malaysia to achieve a developed nation by 2020. In the early 1990s, despite slowdown in the global economy, as the third largest economy in South-East Asia, after Indonesia and Thailand, Malaysia was supported by relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient financial system. With the real GDP growing at 9.9%, ringgit appreciation, strong export growth and the Government’s measures to hold inflation low at 3.6%, the local stock market became an attractive alternative to foreign investors.

Before 1993, foreign investment in Malaysia was mainly dominated by long-term direct investment in the manufacturing sector. However, as a result of measures taken to develop our domestic equity market, coupled with the strong economic backdrop, we saw a massive influx of foreign capital inflow, which helped fuel the super bull-run in 1993. Within the year, the market increased by 98% to reach an all-time high of 1,275.3 points and foreign investors’ participation accounted for 15% of total trading value of our local bourse. This had also driven the market into a highly speculative one, which lured many retailers into the market, thinking of making fast and easy money.

TEH : This is interesting to watch as 'foreign capital inflow' is still considered LOW at this point of time(but there is an increase for the past few months, still small). As KLCI is above 1,500 now ... shall we watch it breaching 1,530 next?How many percentage of the total trading value now are from foreign funds? I wonder ...

With the presence of new and unfamiliar players, the market became a huge “casino”. Retail investors bought into stocks based on rumours rather than company fundamentals. Among the hottest topics during that time were the awards of government mega projects, privatisation candidates, sector play and regular news on upward revision of corporate earnings. Examples for the highly speculative stocks were Ekran, Ayer Molek Rubber Co, Berjuntai Tin Dredging and Kramat Tin Dredging.

TEH : What else could I say ... but nodding. Yes, sir. What really happened to these stocks, actually? I do have a few who honestly told me that they are STILL holding on to paper-loss of those counters de-listed in 1997/1998 crisis. But, what really happened? I was not there ... So, are we in the similar scenario now where rumours of a casino & eco-developement sending KBunai to shoot few hundreds percent? Is HWGB our best bet now? Farlim is alive again today!! Is that a sign?


No comments: