Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Stock Watch
KLCI : Watch 1480 level. Currently my scanner showing 60 stocks oversold, from the previous 8 stocks. The list increases as FEAR is back. When you see the oversold stocks reaching 120 or more, you will know it is time to BUY good stocks. Watch, breaking 1480, we will get 100 in the list by then. Many are hanging there ...

Bursa : RSI 27. Level to watch 7.75. Very nice.

GenM : Grabbed at 3.20 as planned. Next buying at 3.14.

MMCCorp : RSI 27. Support at 2.70. Watch. Very nice.

Parkson : RSI 33, support at RM5.40. Watch. Nice.


DOW down 40 points, recovered from the early losses. KLCI at 1496.

As I mentioned, there is a huge difference between investing and trading. Now, if you are trading, one or two weeks ago, you would have cut-loss(or take profits) when markets go for correction. Perhaps, you would have jumped to other wagon that is moving north. For that, TA should be apply in proper manner.

But, if you like a good stock and think that you are investing in it, then it should be accumulating during weakness, buying at each support and patiently waiting for the BUY signal. If we have lack of those TA skills(many do not), then we could just buy in stages, buy when KLCI down 10 points for consecutive 3 days. It is good if we could know the support level of each stock so that we could buy into it at that level. Otherwise, no buying-no selling.

For those who trade strictly using TA(even KBunai also they could give you all those TA indications! Hmm...), then be it. But for those FA people, we should go for those stocks which we think could rebound(due to good fundamentals, not punting or guessing).

KNM : I received an alert SMS last week when it was still st 0.42, today at 0.54. I will not go for this very speculative counter. I do know that syndicate actually sending the rumours to play on the stock thru brokers, dealers, friends etc etc. It spreads and many bought into it, as the volume shown. KNM is back to be the darling, trying to take out KBunai's popularity!! There is a news KNM got some businesses. Again, I do not look for get-rich stock. I could have used it to trade but I hv many in hands with few warrants/call warrants to handle.

Scomi : At 0.36, remember the uncle who bought into Scomi-wa at 0.195? Perhaps he wondered why I said YTLpower-wb is better than his Scomi-wa? That was two weeks ago. It makes senses to him now. I hope he has cut-loss those I doubt it.

I will share this with my 'students' this Friday, the risk of playing with warrants and the RISK. Also, the knowledge needed. Warrants are not for everyone. Call-warrants are definitely much riskier. I have to cut-losses on TChong-cd, Bursa-co, Tenaga-cp and such ... as you could lose a lot if you use HA.

Saag and Talam are still actively traded, with many looking for that one 'bit' profit(or loss). It is for gambling-mentality. HWGB continues to attract uncles/aunties attention. These will never end as there are so many different personalities in the noisy market.

Look at K1, certainly a huge number one winner. It shot up another 25% in ONE trading day. Impressive. As k1 moves, KStar moves too. Simply because they shared the alphabet "k". Do you know what is the price of YTL-e now? It is at 1.30 ... hmm ... do you know what is the peak price recently? It dives from 1.70+. Impressive too.

So, for investing ... for trading ... for punting ... we all view stocks differently. We may view YTL-e as investing in their new businesses, supported by YTL group. For traders, riding on the huge upthrust ... and then cut it off. Those with good TA(and brave heart) could have profitted from the recent craziness. But more unforfunate group are uncles/aunties/novices moving in late to punt and get stucked(dont know what to do with it now as it dives ... cut is painful as we supposed to get-rich and it supposed to go to RM2.50, ok?!)

Depending on how you see it, to me the current correction is much over-due and technically needed. 3 weeks ago, many stocks in overbought region. Today, we could see those short-term traders cash-out and those dont-know-much sell off their stocks due to fear. Today, I could find many with RSI 30-40 range. Just nice. Current weakness is viewed as a buying opportunity. That is MY personal opinion and doings.

Someone nice e-mail me and telling me that I must be very new to market(yes I am, sir) to be such a ignorant that I was not there in market in 1980s where you will lose lots of money by averaging down. He is refering to my 'no brainer' of averaging down on LionInd(it is just an example, anyway). If you dont like LionInd as my RM2 example, please use Kencana or IGB for the Rm2 or any stock of YOUR choice as example. Thanks for the pointer. I may be new to market, I hope I m not that ignorant. I still have loooong way to go ...

RM1-stocks : JCY at 0.915 and Kinstel at 0.905. HuaYang at 0.96 is staying well. Remember I want to see who reaches RM1.10 first? I hv cleared JCY, as I m going for Kinstel. We shall watch if any of these three reaches the finishing line at Rm1.10. Not in the soonest of time, for sure. loong journey .

9.25 am : QSR and KFC diving, JCorp rejects takeover offers. Someone paying huge premium, still not taking profit meh? Due to the speculation news, finally reality seeps in again. I m stuck with a little of QSR-wb bought at 3.05 yesterday. Do you like Pizza Hut or KFC? Nice.

QSR-wb : Bought at 3.05 yesterday when it dives, sold at 3.15 and 3.17. Queue at 3.19 not done. It closed at 3.14 for lunch and frozen after that. I m still stucked with a small amount. I do not plan on her but thought just a short fling. Sometimes, things could get complicated!!

Once the news out, it DIVES. This morning, I grabbed back at 2.80-2.83 level. And ready to dispose it all(because it is UN-planned). I have taken profits yesterday and at 2.90, I will escape with profits! hehe. Very risky. Even no-profit, I will still cut it off and giving back the dinner I hv taken last night! That is a life of short day-trader which I dont which to take or encourage.

Please note that you can view me as a genius or an idiot, it does not matter to me. I m more concern what I m learning from my trade, and can I do better next time? If I m losing hugely in a trade, how could I reduce my losses(still lose la) next time?

Kinstel : At 0.885, bleeding further. No longer qualify to be in my RM1 stock. Perhaps joining my 80cents-group

Bolton and SigGas : Joining my RM1 category.

GenM : Tho this is a boring stock, its RSI below 30. So BUY la at 3.20. Slowly wait for it to climb. I want to ask my students to buy, but they too slow to re-act. Somemore all so young guys/ladies. I wait somemore, the slow train will move la.

谭咏麟 - 幸運星 - I like his songs VERY much in 80s.


Monday, November 29, 2010

Stock Watch

Bursa : RSI 29. Nice.

GenM : RSI at 29. RM3.20 and RM3.14 levels to BUY.

MMCCorp : RSI 31. Nce.

UEMLand : RSI 39. Wait.

DOW down by 140 points ... oh boy. Brace for the roller-coaster ride again tmr.

Which will be the next M&A play in property?

That is a headline in The Edge. I was reading it with great interests yesterday. With UEMLand+Sunrise and MRCB + IJMLand, what is the next equation?

SPSetia + MahSing is being speculated. With SPSetia net assets valued at RM2.07, that is expensive now. MahSing net assets at RM1.03, and trading at RM2 that is expensive too. So, is the equation possible?

E&O's net asstes at 1.26, a slight discount but YNH's NAV at RM3.10(by RHB) is at 43% discount. Share-buyback seen in YNH, stating that it is under-valued.



9.10 am : KLCI dropping 10 points. Oh boy!! I m wearing RED.

9.20 am : KLCI down 17 points!! ALERT!!

12.15 pm : Given my 'students' some pointers on buying GenM or MMCCorp - the risk vs reward.

Taken from RHB-forum

I don't know why some investors are thinking of adding more to their portfolio. The trend doesn't look good. A good counter won't even go up in this kind of uncertain situation. One more big bomb explosion in Korea and Pfftt!. My finger is always on the sell button unless I see the market is heading north again. Maybe I am wrong and pls do correct me.

Looking at the weekly chart it is still bullish but....... I think I'll stay aside, ignore all the tips and recommendations, take out my old Olympus and walk the streets of old Penang and take pictures.


Hi! Mr. Cheah, it all boils down of your investment horizon. If you are a short term investor/trader, yes it is the correct time to clear your portfolios because of the Korea war, PIGGS and US market. For those medium to long term investors, don't dispose off your stocks. It should be a good idea to buy some more once the above-mentioned adverse factors are clear or better and the market starts to move up with big volume. One must not depend on technical analysis alone for investing in any share market because other factors such as global and local economic , political and share market situation and so forth play the utmost essential catalysts for the movement of the market. Once you have studied these factors which would reflect in the technical charts, then you can determine when to invest , hold or sell the shares.

Your views, please.


3.55 pm : I just came back from 2 hours of classes and going for another 2 hours tuition now. KLCI RECOVERED. Wow.

WK : I showed my 'student' WK that I bought QSR-wb at 3.05 level, clearing at 3.15, 3.17 and 3.19. Only the 3.19 not done, so I m stucked with a bit of it as its frozen. That is real trade shown to my 'student'. I got this fish from an SMS from my friend(was my reader!!), KN. Thanks for the free dinner tonight.

6.10 pm : KLCI closed in GREEN. Oh my goodness!! These days KLCI very volatile - morning losing 17 points, I was busy queueing, sms-ing and buyng.

Malton : I was queueing at 0.675 and it was not done. Otherwise, it will be another good trade.

GenM : At 3.21, very nice level to BUY.

PChem : I need to add her to my 30 counters and BJToto taken out. Welcome, PChem.


Sunday, November 28, 2010

Stock watch

GenM and UEMLand

These two caught my attention with their current weakness. While GenM is not a good trading-counter(Genting is more volatile), UEMLand is worth a look.

GenM : If the RSI goes below 30 next week, I will ask two of my students to BUY her.

BRDB : There are some activities seen and I want to stalk her.

Sunday ... wont be free to analyse anything today. Another tuition class later, to KLCC for Kids Fair, to Nilai and by the time I m home ... it will be night and need to mark some papers!

Anyway, it seems that FEAR is gripping on markets now as many anxiously watching if Koreans will go to war.

CNX's forum : There were only 128 replies with 3318 views for the whole last week, way below the previous weeks. It shows BEARISH market. This could give me a simple market analysis(MA) as during market up, you could see about 5k+ views. The average for the recent weeks is 4k+. I am a Math-person, I see stats and wonder what it means. This is market forum with members(many of them are silent readers) viewing on so-called sifu/guru giving them some technical tips on 'hot stocks' that are moving high. It is seldom people want to know about the downtrending stocks or shy to speak about their loss-making stocks.

Hence, that was why I placed some stats of CNX's forum viewers and replies some time ago. I have written a post there about these. I remember there was once it was SO QUIET the whole week and someone asked why so quiet that week? SIMPLE logic ... market was diving!! See my logic? Majority in markets and many of them in CNX are those uncles/aunties looking for tips - not that they want to learn about TA using the software, ok? It is also a simple logic that they opted to go to CNX to 'learn' TA as they have NO CHOICE ... many of them lost lots of money ... and were hoping they could get some tips from the know-how.

I do hope those paid thousands of dollars to learn TA(four days crash course) will learn TA well. But, honestly ... they went to CNX with a wrong perception and wrong motive. They want TIPS and soon realise that TA is not their cuppa-tea.

I will go for the meeting whenever I m free and could only see FEW regular faces. Where are the hundreds of so-called graduates?? Too good to attend meetings? Hmm ... too busy could be used as a good excuse.

Imagine this : A person who never believe in chinese physician will always claim how good those doctors in high-class medical center are. Suddenly, he is down with a 'mysterious' ailness and after months(and thousands of dollars spent) in that hospital, he is not getting any better. What will he do? Finding an ALTERNATIVE. He heard of a friend recommending that popular chinese-physician. He has NO CHOICE ... but to take that alternative, hoping that his ailment could be cured.

CNX's marketing team is also good too. That increases their businesses. Unfortunately, many graduates could not benefit much from a good software. They went to CNX for wrong reasons.

I planned for 2 years plus when I was back in Sabah that I will come over to KL to learn a proper TA using a proper software. Another one to consider is next-view.

Seriously, I am thinking of KNOWLEDGE first, experiencing it with REAL trade and step-by-step learning to modify a system that suit myself. A person who understand about learning and education will go through stages in their learning.

To me, FA come first ... we need to reduce our risk by buying into a stock which with high chances will rebound. You cant be serious if you say KBunai will go to 0.36 level, can you? Base on WHAT? Hope Analysis = HA. Then Pray Analysis = PA(also Punt Analysis). These mentalities puzzled me ... but as we know 8 or 9 out of 10 of them are STILL losing money despite KLCI at 1500 now. They cant be gaining IF KLCI move back down to 1000 -1200 points, right?

INVEST in ourselves. My 'students' are 'lucky'. They dont have to buy so many books to read, so many hours spent in doing 'homework' as they paid me 'small' amount to coach them on how to get started. INVEST in knowledge will be the best investment BEFORE you think of investing in stock-markets. Unfortunately, MAJORITY will go into market WITHOUT any knowledge and buy through rumours/tips. They never learn how to FISH.

I have given my 'students' the pond - KLCI-linked counters and 30 fishes to choose from. I have asked them to open a trading a/c by next week(it is a homework!!), put ANY amount from Rm1k to RM5k.

Practicality : I believe in being practical. So, I wont wait for my students have ALL the knowledge needed in term of buying a stock. Look ... you could never feel adequate about knowledge, you need expriences in investing. You need to put your theories to practise. SERIOUS. I do know many who have been side-lined as they feel in-adequate to be in the market. It is RISKY, they said. But, HOW are we going to feel the REAL PAIN from the REAL FEAR ... and the up feeling of GREED if we are using 'virtual' money? How are we going to gain some experiences if we never test out our knowledge??

Brace for more downturn next week. Buy, Hold or Sell?

10.10 pm : Chelsea down by one goal.

I passed by One-South today when I was from Nilai to KLCC, using Sg Besi road. It is under constructions.

10.45 pm :


Saturday, November 27, 2010

DOW down 100 points.

Top 100 companies

1. Maybank - 16.6
2. CIMB - 20.9
3. Sime - 72.8
4. PBBank - 17.7
5. Maxis - 19.5
6. IOICorp - 36.6
7. MISC - 48.7
8. Axiata - 20.5
9. Genting - 36.2
10. Tenaga - 11.8

These are taken from The Star. If the data is reliable and we only look into P/E, we wont buy SIME(recommended by the panels during The Edge's investment forum). And the laggard is Tenaga with P/E less than 12. Theoritically, lower P/E is good.

11. PPB - 14.0
12. PLUS - 18.8
13. PetGas - 23.4
14. KLK - 34.8
15. GenM - 14.9
16. DiGi - 19.9
17. YTLpower - 13.9
18. AMMB - 18.0
19. RHBCap - 14.3
20. YTL - 17.1

So, from the list above, it is easy to understand why I do like YTLPower. Its P/E is the lowest the list there. This is a cash-rich counter which gives good dividends. Some do not like YTLPower giving away cash for YES. I do like the management team too. With many plus points on her, it is a good buy-n-hold counter. KLK at P/E 34.8 is certainly not cheap but she is still attractive with CPO expected to go high and the demand increases. PPB is another counter I like but the recent no-so-nice news from Wilmar affecting its stock prices. Buying her during correction will be a good strategy. Check out the dive of GenM.

Stock market - illogical gambling-den

PETALING JAYA: Loss-making Stone Master Corp Bhd's share price increased by a whopping 117.24%, or 34 sen a share, to close at 63 sen on rumours that the company would be involved in a merger and acquisition exercise with a foreign company.

There were 1.7 million shares traded yesterday at prices ranging from 26 sen to 67 sen. The stock's year low was 13 sen on June 29. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is up 293.75%.

Stone Master produces marble and granite products

TEH : Rumours are spread by syndicates or insiders who want to dispose their holdings. Rumours are spread through mouth, through e-mail, sms, brokers/dealers, through internet and many more channels. I warned my students(6 of them) yesterday ... if you want to remain my investment-students, DO NOT buy into any very speculative counters through rumours. One of my student's someone bought BJCorp due to gaming-licence rumours. She bought at 1.30+(today below 1.10). She said it went all the way to Rm1.80+(as if I dont know!) but it dived. Not knowing anything about markets, she did not take profit at RM1.80 or cut loss when it went below RM1.30. That is mainly WHY I wont allow any of them to buy into rumours in speculative counters.

Fundamental stocks are safer(risk is still there, of coz). If you are going to gain real money, you need to be a fundamentalist with longer time-frame. If the fundamentally strong stock prices going lower from your cost-price, be glad to buy more. On this point, I agreed with Pauline Yong.

Hence, those trade blindly on TA MUST make sure that their TA skills are good(I am NOT, I m a novice) and be very discipline.

Scomi :KUALA LUMPUR: SCOMI GROUP BHD [] reported net losses of RM166.48 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, in contrast to the net profit of RM22.97 million a year ago.

Remember the uncle who bought scomi-wa at 0.195? THINK again if he has cut-loss. I doubt he know what is cut-loss(from the way he speaks and acts).


UEMLand : diving alert. RSI at 39. Wait for Rm2, then I will welcome her as my RM2 stock.

GenM : At 3.27, queueing at 3.23 will be a good entry point. RSI at 32.

DOW down 100 points. Black Friday?

I have just done an 3 hours crash-course with my 6 students - slowly asking them to create a data-base to track 30 index-linked counters. Divided into sectors, they have to go to individual companies websites to download the AR and compile the values of EPS, ROE and DY for past 5 years, if possible. These data will be used to discuss further (pro and cons) in order to understand what these data giving us. Being a science-based persons, it could be very challenging. Then, at the end of the day ... how do we use these day to BUY into next counter?

I m tired ... need to sleep as I will have another VERY long day ... classes from 8 am till 4pm!! zzzz....


Friday, November 26, 2010

Will KLCI move above 1,500 level again and we shall see the peak? There is one new IPO today and many anticipating a bull-day. I will like to see if I could trim further some of my holdings especially YTLPower which I m holding on hugely.

Yesterday I met a friend who is an accountant. He is strong in his FA. So, I used the opportunity to ask him some 'valuations' point of views. You see, I m going to show my 'students' how to check on P/E and such, I need to tell them to be practical. Market is NOT efficient, in my opinion. A low P/E does not mean BUY and/or a high P/E doesnt mean not good. Such a statement could be very confusing to a new market-babies. No doubt we would prefer to check on a low P/E ratio stocks but we need to understand too that P/E ratio is only ONE of the many ways we could value a company.

LionInd having a low P/E(read latest MB) and seen as undervalued by the analyst. How true could that statement?

UEMLand having such a high P/E ratio but isnt she attractive with Sunrise coming in and huge Iskandar Malaysia(IM) in Johore buzzing?

No-brainer method

Lets say you like LionInd for whatever reasons/excuses.

On 27th Oct, its RSI above 70 and it touched a high of 21.5. So, we dont buy at that level, right? We wait for it to retrace. Support at RM2, it correct for 3 days, I bought into it the fourth day when doji seen at 1.98. Fine. RSI was at 55. Then it rebounded to 2.11 level, which is my current resistance. RSI was at 65. I did not sell.

So, it retraced back to RM2 level before on 23rd Nov recently it DIVED. Two factors used - poor report and korean-news. The next support at 1.90, so grabbed at 1.89. RSI was at 38. And going into next support at 1.83, I waited the next day ... it was opened at 1.78, I think. I grabbed my third portion at 1.80. RSI at 41.

Now, my three portions done. If we bought at RM2.00, RM1.90 and RM1.80 evenly, the average should be RM1.90. No need to trade much ... just wait. Wait for it to go to RM2, sell the portion you bought at RM1.80 for more than 10% profits. Wait for next resistance at 2.11 to sell our second portion we bought at 1.90 and so on.

When it dives from 2.11 to 1.80, RSI will be pointing lower(of coz) but when it goes back from 1.80 to 2.10, expect a much high RSI. If it shoot very fast to 2.10, no question asked please ... SELL ALL. If it continues to shoot higher and you want her back, wait for pull-back and correction.

Seriously, these are no-brainer way of averaging many 'smart' investors using for their stocks. No need so many indicators for on TA etc etc. At times, when I see someone's chart with 8 TA indicators, I wonder ... need so much of brain to trade a counter? For the average us, try out no-brainer averaging method. ONLY apply to the counter you like(for whatever excuses). Dont ask me about Karambunai which are karam-ing now.

I am using such a no brainer for UEMLand now. On 8th Nov, RSI at 73, it was at 2.50. It corrects to recent 2.19 support level. RSI at 45. Buy portion one. Next support seen at 2.00. Say, suddenly South Korean retaliates, and it gives me good reason to grab at 2.00 for my second portion. With the next support at 1.77, allocate third portion below 1.80.

After these, WAIT WAIT WAIT ...

I m only using these two for illustration on this so-called no-brainer method. I m going to hold on both using this method. It applies to my Evergreen too.

Note : We should allocate a greater amount at lower price say, 20%, 30% and 50%.

Note : This is open to readers who want to learn my no-brainer way of investing. I m planning for a 'class'(Subang Jaya) to show some FA and plus using the above no-brainer way of investing to profit from YOUR stock(s). Those interested, please e-mail me with brief introduction and I shall furnish you with some details. Yes, this will be my first 'public meet my readers' session. Hehe. Ok, I m serious tho I m a joker.

This is for INVESTORS who want to learn a little of TA(I will use the simple RSI). The time frame will be 3 - 6 months. This is also NOT for buy-n-hold mentality. I m a trader, and one of my no-brainer system could be used for a time frame or 3 - 6 months. Stocks move UP and DOWN always ... and good stocks moving lower deserve our attention. Then, take the plunge once our 'homework' done.

So far I have 3 'potential students'. I want to limit it to 6 for my first session. Let me get it serious. We are talking about investing. KARAMbunai kaki wont like this one as I will use it as a ridiculous example to speak about GREED. Investing with good fundamental, good track records, good DY(if any), good management team and good what-ever FA. Karambunai-kaki are not welcome. I will also invite 2 of my friends to join. If they are OK, I will have 5 then. So, I need one or two more to start with!!

Day : Should be Saturday noon/night.

6.50 pm : Preparing for my class at 7.30pm now. Mentally prepared, I mean. That is how I prepare for my Maths classes - mentally.


1. Explaination on P/E for each market, sectors and stocks.
2. Type of P/E and when and why could be used as FA pointer.
3. NTA or BV - are there relevant? My friend mentioned RNAV.
4. Cash and DY - are they a must to buy into a stock?

I dont think so I could share much in the two-hour class as my 'students' are science-based lecturers!!

I spoken to my young finance-lecturer colleague. He must be wondering how come I know much being a science-based person. Now, reading ONLY could give us THEORIES. You could have deep understanding of 10 ratios BUT if you cant even apply it in your stock picking AND profit from it, then you may keep your 10 ratios in the closet! Haha. Yes, I m a practical person. I m more interested if these ratio(s) could be used in this particular sector for me to cmpare it to its peers. Then, I m more interested when I could buy into it, using WHAT strategies and what are my plans for it!! PRACTICAL ... dont tell me you know the formula of RSI. APPLICATION is more important than theories, ya.

I m going to give them an example : Hmm ... supposingly I m going to Jusco at Sunway Pyramid to buy my kids Pampers and a tin of Milo. Then, I used my Standard Chartered Platinum card to pay for the amount. I signed the dotted line and the transaction is on. I went off with my items. I walked down to the parking place and drive home.

Think ... how many business transactions actually going on with one simple swipe of card?!

It could be challenging for them. Haha. It is difficult to be my students! Haha.

Yes, I m teaching them how to FISH, not giving them the fish. They need to THINK and use their OWN judgement to evaluate the companies performances. P/E could NOT give us that, for sure.

All the ratios in FA and all the indicators in TA are for references only. Using appropriate FA and then TA could enhance our chances in a trade. Of coz, it needs to back up by a strategy and plan!! Arrghh ... why buying a stock is so complicated one? Hai yah ... tmr I hentam the Karambunai at 0.17, sure make money when it goes to 0.20 ma, right? Yeah right ...

I m already SIMPLIFIED for them(otherwise, why do they need to PAY me for classes?? Might as well by few books and STUDY those theories??).

Enough for today, no posting tmr as I will have 7 hours of tuition(collecting my bullets!! hehe) and then family time till Sunday night. Shall be back on Sunday night?

KLCI down 4.44 points. Oh boy, chinese wont like this number!! haha.


Thursday, November 25, 2010

The Stock Market

When people refer to "the stock market" or "the market" it can sometimes be confusing to beginning investors as to what those terms actually mean. Are they talking about all the stocks that trade on the NYSE, all the stocks that trade in the U.S., or all the stocks in the world? Typically when people refer to "the market" they are talking about all the publicly traded stocks in this country (they will usually say "the global market" if they mean the entire world). Indeed, the concept of "the market" can be a difficult one at first, especially since beginners tend to think of stocks as individual units. This section explains some different ways that investing experts think about the market as a whole.

Efficient Market

Proponents of the efficient market theory believe that there is perfect information in the stock market. This means that whatever information is available about a stock to one investor is available to all investors (except, of course, insiders, but insider trading is illegal). Since everyone has the same information about a stock, the price of a stock should reflect the knowledge and expectations of all investors. The bottom line is that you should not be able to "beat the market" since there is no way for you to know something about a stock that isn't already reflected in the stock's price. That's not to say that efficient market theory fans claim that all stocks are necessarily priced correctly; instead, they claim that there is no way for you to know whether or not prices are too high or too low. Proponents of this theory spend little time trying to pick stocks that are going to be "winners"; instead, they simply try to match the market's performance. However, there is ample evidence to dispute the basic claims of this theory, and most investors don't believe it.

Random Walk

The random walk theory draws conclusions that are similar to the efficient market theory, but it uses a different line of reasoning. The theory takes its name from a well-known book by Burton Malkiel (although others pioneered the idea decades earlier) which says that future stock prices are completely independent of past stock prices. In other words, the path that a stock's price follows is a "random walk" that cannot be determined from historical price information, especially in the short term. Much like efficient market theory fans, the random walkers believe that it is impossible to pick "winning" stocks and that your best bet is just to try to match the market's performance, usually by using a long-term buy and hold strategy.

Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance theory is very different from the random walk and the efficient market theories. Proponents of behavioral finance believe that there are important psychological and behavioral variables involved in investing in the stock market that provide opportunities for smart investors to profit. For example, when a certain stock or sector becomes "hot" and prices increase substantially without a change in the company's fundamentals, behavioral finance theorists would attribute this to mass psychology (also known as the "follow the herd instinct"). They therefore might short the stock in the long term, knowing that eventually the psychological bubble will burst and they will profit.

Bull and Bear Markets

In addition to the three market theories mentioned above, there are other ways of thinking about the market as a whole, that are less theoretical and more grounded in what is actually happening to them. One way is to describe the overall trends in the market, such as by defining them as bearish or bullish. A bull market, loosely defined, is a market in which the major stock indexes have risen by over 20% over a substantial period of time, usually measured in months or years. Bull markets can happen as a result of an economic recovery, an economic boom, or simple investor psychology. The longest and most famous of all bull markets is the one that began in the early 1990s in which the U.S. equity markets grew at their fastest pace ever.

Bear markets are the exact opposite of bull markets: they are markets in which the major indexes have declined by 20% or more over a period of at least two months (a decline that large for any shorter time period is simply called a "correction", especially if it followed a substantial rise). Bear markets usually occur when the economy is in a recession and unemployment is high, or when inflation is rising quickly. The most famous bear market in U.S. history was, of course, the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Seasonal and Time-Related Market Factors

During certain times of the year or certain times of the month, the markets tend to exhibit certain behaviors more often than would be predicted by chance. For example, the early fall, October in particular, has historically been a time when the markets have slumped, although the effect isn't extremely pronounced and there isn't a logical explanation for it. Strong stock performance in January is another example of a seasonal market trend. The so-called "January Effect" occurs because many investors choose to sell some of their stock right before the end of the year in order to claim a capital loss for tax purposes. Once the tax calendar rolls over to a new year on January 1st these same investors quickly reinvest their money in the market, causing stock prices to rise. But although the January effect has been observed numerous times throughout history, it is difficult for investors to profit from it since the market as a whole expects it to happen and therefore adjusts its prices accordingly

Copied from Investor Guide.

9.15 am : KLCI up 7 points. I m wearing LONG sleeves, green. Yes, it is seldom I will wear long sleeves ... but it shows I m bullish about the market after DOW rebounded and Koreans not going into war, afterall.

Malton : I did not give the fish to my client(now becoming a friend, was my reader too). He gave me Malton, with FA and asking my opinions. I m a trader, so ... I rather plan how to trade IF I m going to move into Malton. So, I m tracking Malton for him. Buying in stages. Buying when it is low. Holding power must be there. That will reduce our RISK. Dont talk about profit yet UNTIL it is DONE as planned.

Evergreen : Seeing a little greener today but still below my cost price. I will hold it till it is green again! Hehe. NT, a 'client' of mine sold bought it at 1.38 as me but sold for 6% profits. I m still stucked. Should have consulted her. haha. Another client of mine, a late comer, bought and stucked too. Give it 3 months, ok? This is not for short-trades.

BStead : One of the top gainer yesterday in red today, 10 cents discount.

9.40 am : IJMLand cooling off ... in red now. Hmm ...

Peter(of chat-box) : Malton is not my main trade of the day. When it dived, I grabbed LionInd much more, actually. I m buying a little of Malton to TEST the 0.720 support level holds? To check on my knowledge of BUYING when market 'collapsing'. To also monitor for my client, KN. I said ... I sold it off at 0.735 as I moved into BStead(my babe) instead yesterday morning at 5.20 till 5.30. I need bullets to shoot on the stock I am stalking. I also used bought into Malton to SHOW my 'student'(PT) who were with me. So, I traded LIVE just to show him. Nothing much to do with profits/losses. Real money, real trade LIVE for my student to WATCH. He is not even in market yet!!

KPJ : Breakout today - I sms-ed a client of mine as he wants to buy KPJ on Monday after I see its activity. But, unfortunately he does not have 'bullets' to shoot on her. Sorry.

12.45 pm : KLCI up 8.16 points. My shirt is green. A reader sms me and said he bought in something and will want to wear green tmr! Haha . I m painting the crowd green then. As if it works ... Haha.

Publish a book : I have an author(my reader too!) who will be publishing a financial book next year, busy on his work and asking me to help him to review on his drafts. I have to say I m very busy ... and not qualified too. I am sorry to disappoint you. I m seriously OVER-work and very busy.

My in-laws just flew in to KL and this weekend I will bring them out etc etc. With 3 tuition classes on Sat, I will be too busy to blog this weekend. Do I need to answer to any of my readers? Put it this way, if you are new ... you need to read my previous postings! Yes, from AUG 2008 to current to understand ME and MY writings. I m a joker, so dont take my trades seriously. I could even forgotten about certain trades etc etc. If you ask me when I bought KimLun recently and when I cleared it off, I cant remember. All I do remember is WHY I bought into it, WHY I cleared it that day. WHEN is irrevelent to me.

I always ask --- WHY --- as once my "WHY" answered, then the HOW and WHEN will comes naturally by itself.

Why am I not buying KBunai? Why not? If I m buying, WHY buying into it? These are my questions in my head? Next, with my reasonings/excuses ... When to BUY? More importantly, when to SELL?

Many new readers here are ONLY to check anything to buy to punt. I know that, of coz. I may talk about pisang-goreng and such, to make trading lighter ... doesnt mean I m really selling pisang-goreng, ok? Seriously, this is MY TRADING ADVENTURE.

It is an adventure, a journey on how I started my 'trading life'(from ground ZERO) and my daily encounters with fellow investors, fellow bloggers ... friends that I made along the way. It even included my first student, JL, and how he betrayed me. It is a reflection and a reminder to MYSELF. Read these lines again as I have written about it for TWO YEARS PLUS NOW.

THIS IS MY BLOG. I m only a blogger, who happen to be interested with stocks(incorrect- I m interested with whole idea of investing and trading). The blog is only for ENTERTAINMENT purposes. NONE of the trades here are real. It is only for illustrations and sharing to learn more on how we could invest/trade. It is a platform for those think-alike to share views. I appreciate good constructive pointers. Any other things are viewed as NOISES(empty vessels).

THIS IS "MY TRADING ADVENTURE". Read my disclaimer. Go to my profile to CHECK it out. Iiv written there 2.5 years ago "BEAR WITH ME, I M BULL-SHITTING". So, it will be GOOD if you view it as entertainment purposes rather than a call to buy/sell. Oh yes, can you see my creativity using the word BEAR and BULL. haha. Joker.

I am INDEPENDENT. I do not work with syndicates(haha ... I wish I am. Employ me, please. LOL), I do not work with any broker houses(believe me? haha) and I m not supporting ANY organisations. I support learning and education in markets.

Phew ... again and again ... more and more new readers. Some brainless ones making comments without checking on facts, some just want to get attention and make some noises. Some even pointed how selfish I am(SELL FISH = jual ikan?) hmm ... I had 4 messages in a day saying I m lan-si or arrogant(that was the day I gave loooong lecturing in my blog! PMS!! Haha). etc etc ...

This is really my adventure ... how I started to have some client-based 3 weeks ago and having 6 clients now. I will stop at 10 as I m too busy. How I started my class(finally) coaching some of my young friends about investing(which I planned 2 years ago!).

I have even written about what I am busy about!! I am such an open-book YET somehow I will have new readers jumping into some stupid conclusions about me. Be it, just leave la. Spare me the noises, ok?

I admit I do not reply sms or e-mail. Sorry. SMS needs MONEY(and TIME). Only TWO readers top-up for me last month ... so, I do reply to them, of coz. I do not reply e-mail as I m TOO BUSY. Some nice e-mail, I will just shortly acknowledge with a 'thank'.

If you do not know what I m busy about, then READ my previous posts. DO NOT expect me to give you the link! I cant even remember! Haha.

GLBhd : Breakout today too. oh boy ... I missed again as I want to collect BStead, instead.

YTLPower-cb : Grabbed back more at 0.230, current closing price. I claered some at 0.255 yesterday. What a volatile YTLpower. Unsed to be a stable, nice low beta stock!

3.20 am : DOW up 130 points. Crude oil up, to 83 now.

Malton : This is given to my 6th client(a friend now) and I asked him to allocate buying in three stages. Stage one - buy at 0.775, a bit below support 0.78. It was at 0.81 at that stage, mind u. so WAIT.

As market goes lower, that was down. The black candle-stick, market dived due to korean-news, stage two easily done at 0.745(a bit below support 0.75). And the strong support at 0.72, buy at 0.715(a bit below support) for stage three done on the same day!!

It rebounded yesterday. No buy signals yet, many jumped in ... and see shall see 0.78 again as resistance. Shall we watch? If plans being carried out, clearing at 0.78 will give us the profit in a short one week trade!! Of coz we may want to wait for 0.80 level again? Possible? We shall see ...

I grabbed Malton at 0.71-0.72, now you do know why, right? But, due to lack of bullets, I sold it at 0.735 yesterday morning as in the morning, BStead making a move. I have to move into BStead as I have stalked her when it dives from RM5.80 to RM5.20. It is NICE.

Emerging Markets Lead The Charge
by Ryan Cole, Contributing Editor, Taipan Daily

Laggards no more, the emerging economies of the second and third world are coming into their own.

Fear is back -- and with it, opportunity.

Emerging markets had been on a big tear this week. When the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.8% in only three days, many took that as a sign that economies thought the Irish bailout would alleviate Europe's debt problem.

If Europe can get healthy, it's great news for the export-driven emerging markets, which still need rich countries to buy their goods in order to expand.

But then, North and South Korea faced off in an artillery skirmish. Doubts about Europe's bailout crept in. And suddenly, halfway through the trading day on Tuesday, the Emerging Markets Index was off 2.4%.

But it didn't stay down. By the end of the day, the Index had eked out a positive gain. Know why?

Taking Center Stage

Emerging markets are no longer the redheaded stepchildren of the world economy. They're growing big enough, strong enough, and advanced enough, that in many ways it's emerging markets that are the new economic engine.

Make no mistake: emerging markets still need the developed world to sell their goods. The U.S. remains the largest manufacturer in the world, almost twice as big as China -- the number two producer. And it will be years before emerging markets enjoy the kind of wealth that developed nations take for granted.

But that doesn't change one simple fact: Emerging markets are growing at extremely fast paces, and that doesn't look like it will change anytime soon.

China is a huge disappointment if GDP growth dips below 8%. India isn't far behind, hitting 7.44% growth last year. Brazil is starting to play with the big boys as well. And that's not even counting the smaller players that are growing even faster, like Panama (9.18%), Ethiopia (11.3%), and even Iraq (9.78%)... all are currently beating China's 9% growth.

That's why you should look into investing in emerging markets; they are the main driver of global growth today.

3.50 am : I just replied/updates two of my clients. Time to sleep again. zzz


Wednesday, November 24, 2010

KLCI : Reaching 50-MA, it took 15 trading days to move up from 1486 to the new peak, but it too 3 long black candles to move back to the base. Yes, technically, breaking 50-MA, it is a SELL.
DOW down 140 points. I have to wear red shirts later. Many started to see that the rally is over ... after weeks of bullishness, we are back facing the bear ...

Technical Analysis : The failure of technical analysis ... so, for those trading using TA, it broken the support and should have triggered CUT LOSS points yesterday. That could also explain why there is a huge sell-down yesterday. Yes, cut-loss when it reaches our cut-loss point.

But, for fundamentalists and contrarians, yesterday is a buying opportunity. Or perhaps they may wait for another day of sell-down today to grab some of their sound fundamental stocks. And then, HOLD.

I am both - depending on my stocks. Some I will cut it off as I m trading it using TA, some I will gladly collect more. So, we are holding to paper-loss if we have bought into stocks one/two weeks ago and did not cut it off last week.

There are huge differences for those using FA vs TA. To me, TA fails badly for bad FA stocks. But, with the stop-loss point, it should be executed strictly. Otherwise, those KBunai-like stocks many not be able to recover.

Hence, as the sentiment suddenly have changed, we need to decided which to cut-loss(or take smaller profits) and which one we should top-up. Holding on to many counters, I will definitely need to trim down and cut off some holdings. Afterall, we do not have 'endless' bullets to shoot, right? Hmm ...

As I m so used to cut-losses and take-profits, it is just a routine cleaning-up and re-balancing my portfolios. So, i will ... JUST DO IT.

Dont know much

10.00 am : I was having a class ... KLCI in green?? What? It was opened in deep red just now!

YTLPower-cb : I was holding to huge paper-loss yesterday, and still buying at 0.230(from 0.27). Today is a relief day? Crazy market.

YTLpower-wb : Holding to paper-loss to until today 'suddenly' it shoots up today, gaining much now. Oh boy, I was wonder what I was doing buying at 1.32-1.35 yesterday!!

YTLPower : This is the mommy which I want to buy-n-hold.

AnnJoo-wb and WCT-wb : I did not buy more of them as I was buying focusing on YTLPower-wb. I have bought my second stage on them, so waiting for stage three buying to HOLD.

Malton : I was speaking to my 'student' PT yesterday when I shown him KLSE diving yesterday and I was busying queueing. One of them for Malton below 0.72. Then, I shown him the chart WHY I m buying at 0.720 and below. 0.72 is Malton's strong support level, ok? Wanna see the chart? Charts dont lie. Human do.

Evergreen : This is not green .. I bought at a low of 1.38, risk was low ...and now it is below 1.38. Interesting ... no, I m not clearing her.

Sell when it is hot

I like my pisang-goreng when it is hot. Just out of oven/kuali. Tho many will advise me not to take these delicious pisang-goreng especially it is still so hot, I will 'refuse' to listen. It is just tempting!! So, if you are going to sell pisang-goreng, you need to make sure that there will be customers in next one minute. Otherwise, once it is too cold, it wont be nice!! Sell when it is hot!!

Each time when I buy pisang-goreng(seldom now as I hv to be cautious about my health! haha), I will ask the makcik " Masih panas ka?". She cant lie, right? So, I will have it when it is hot!!

Now, when do we sell our stocks/holding? Yes, can you see that even when I m enjoying my pisang-goreng, I could relate it to my stock-markets? And could easily use it as an example?

Market is like ... errm ... lives to me. I oculd relate it to driving a car, to teaching or of coz, when I go to wet market with my wife. Haha. If you could see such, then you could enjoy writing about market like me. I might as well turn to be a writer! Hehe. Some suggested that, actually. I m considering it ... one day.

12.15 pm : KLCI up 2 points. Koreans decided not to go to war yet?

I will have classes after lunch till 7pm. So, wont be free till 8 pm. By the time I m home, market closed, checking on my queues and such, time for bed. Yes, I think I work a little too hard?

10.50 pm : I m just home ... from classes, dinner and some shopping. Tired.

I want to write about my buying this mornng into BStead at 5.20-5.30 ... and I sms-ed a friend and also a CNX member. Many CNX memebers are following my blog which I HOPE they wont buy into what I m buying! This morning I thought it will form a hammer but it formed BULLISH engulfing. So, many coming in to buy BStead in next two days will see me trimming my positions for profits.

I want to write about steel-sector, using LionInd as example on why I m buying more at 1.80 level. Also, will share with my students how to compare peers in similar sector. That will be for Friday's class - sectors!!

I want to write ab out SIME ... yes, that giant.

But, I m too tired with more classes tmr and a dinner with a reader tmr.

Tired. Night.

11.25 pm : counter 275, 555. nice number.


Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Correction or Reversal?

KLCI lost 16 points. HSI lost 628 points!!

There is an increased in the oversold list as I went thru the scan. 35 stocks today after the market dive due to Koreans. I cleared off KFC-wb and MEGB which I bought in the morning for a loss. Then, I also sold off SPSetia-wb for small profits. I sold MSports at 0.535, only to grab back some at 0.50(queue done). Then, market dives ... oh boy, I do not know about the Korean news, I was busy today. But, I grabbed Malton and top-up LionInd(double-blow). I have limited bullets left as many of other stocks are in wounds too. So, I drawing a conclusion to cut-off a few while top up more on those I want to hold longer. Also, I m ready to pump in some money into my new PBBank-invest account to buy more of YTLPower - a buy-n-hold counter.

RSI : With Evergreen at 35, Jaks at 36, Kinsteel at 37, AnnJoo at 38, LionInd at 39 and WCT at 40. That is cool order ... many more RSI are below 40 now. Time to buy if you think it is merely a correction but selling seen if you see it is a reversal. YOU DECIDE.

DOW down 150 points.



LionInd : At 1.92, will be testing 1.90 support level, also the 50-MA. All the arrows pointing downwards. So, I will be averaging down(not cut-loss). Next supports at 1.81 and 1.73. AFter today's sell-down, RSI will be below 50 now, and I m guessing it to be at 47. Check on my guess tonight.

Lion Industries posts RM18.7m net loss
Written by Joseph Chin
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 19:30

KUALA LUMPUR: Lion Industries Bhd swung into the red with net loss of RM18.7 million in the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 due to a decline in volume of steel sold and higher raw materials.

It said on Tueday, Nov 23 revenue declined 19.2% to RM1.09 billion from RM1.35 billion. Loss per share was 2.6 sen compared with earnings per share of 9.78 sen.

Lion Industries said the decline in revenue was mainly due to lower sale of the steel products in the domestic and overseas markets largely due to a steep contraction in steel consumption and higher raw material costs.

“As such, the group recorded a loss from operation of RM37 million as compared to a profit of RM71 million a year ago,” it said.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

LionInd - Double Jeopardy for Steel Division (OSK)

Lion Industries’ 1QFY11 net loss of RM18.8m was slightly deeper than we expected and was below consensus estimates. The poor results were mainly attributed to the arrival of expensive feed material, namely iron ore and scrap metal, which were mismatched with weakening selling prices. The one-month shutdown at its Labuan plant added to the drag on group performance. As we expect a turnaround in 2Q and in view of the company’s undemanding valuation, we maintain our Trading BUY recommendation with a target price of RM2.32. The fair value is derived from 6x PER and 0.6x NTA/share on FY11 figures



Taken from
: 30th DEC 2008 post

Written by me
: A novice who lost lots of money in Mac 2008 and Sept 2008. I was merely one year old in KLSE.

Well, being the last day of the year 2008, I know I have learned a lot about investing and trading. It will be a challenge to share with everyone on everything I have done. Some may sound so silly, some so tedious, but ... we all have our own way of LEARNING. That is EDUCATION to me.

Is the end results important? YES! Is the results everything? NO!

Results are NOTHING!!

PMR results just released and you could ALWAYS see our students getting better and better results each year!! Ever wonder WHY? 6% obtained ALL "A"s. Hmm ... I m one RARE lecturer who DO NOT bother what my students get. Not that I don't care, but I know their results are just a passport for the next level of Education. If they learn NOTHING else except GOOD results, they are a REAL failure to me. Of coz their parents and our STUPID society might want to argue about this.

Hey, ever heard of all those excellent students in PMR, SPM or whatever level living GOOD and HAPPY in their lives? Ok ok ... they might be doctors, engineers, accountants or whatever their PARENTS want them to be, but ... don't deny that YOU feel STUPID(regretting is too late, ok?) forcing your kids to get all the "A"s. Not forgetting spending TONNES of $$$ for their "education". What they obtained are called PAPER qualifications in order for them to WORK for others. Do you think they are SMART enough to earn THAT amount of $$$ you so-called invested in their 'education"? Get it right ... you are PAYING the price of that passport for them to work. Pathetic!! Many can't even be independent enough to THINK. Hmm...

I m not going to spark a debate with anyone about how I see my stupid surrounding parents(some are really pitiful as they REALLY thought excellent exams results are EVERYTHING!!) struggling to understand the whole meaning of education. Well, those of our students WILL be parents soon and they will REPEAT what their parents done to them!! Unless one fine day their minds open, the stupidity-cycle continues ... I have argued with my fella-teachers and recently with the head-master. KITA mahu semua pelajar dapat pangkat A, jika boleh. (We want ALL out students to get A, if possible). Stupid. Period.

Education is a journey

Ok, I m not going to expose your stupidity(and ignorance in terms of education). I m more into EDUCATION for INVESTING. As you could see, we DO NOT need high IQ people to excel in INVESTING. Ask Warren Buffett!!

I admit that I might be at the higher end of the IQ normal curve. Our average Malaysians IQ is at 98, lower that Singaporeans at average of 104 and Hong-Kies at 108. That is the stats I obtained years ago. I m not sure if there is a decrease in our population average in IQ(some of our MPs DEFINITELY below 98), but I wont be surprise. Afterall, every year we producing SO MANY scoring "A"s without appreciating the journey of their education!!

Higher IQ just giving me a slight advantage ... that is ability to analyse a little faster and could see clearer the whole pictures of the situation. BUT that is all the advantage, I could say. Also, being strong in my Mathematics helps a little. I could comprehend charts/graphs easier than normal humanoids. I could calculate the averages faster and could understand the meaning of compound interest and its wonder, just a little better than normal. I m NOT being humble here, but stating a fact that IQ and MATHS do not play a big role in INVESTING!!

What are the ingredients then?

Control your thoughts

I believe we have READ enough to know how crucially important our CHARACTERS and ATTITUDES in our lives. Some books used the term EQ(Emotional Quotient) and some said it is FQ(Financial Quotient). So, we need to recognise that to be SUCCESSFUL in investment, we don't have to be a rocket scientist(or Astro-naut). Just a normal IQ is needed and essential. Well, i have to say that many of our Malaysians IQ below 90(those without many simple common-sense) ... chances will be slimmer to succeed in investment.

For example those queue-ing in a LOOONG queue at TOTO/MAGNUM, in the cramped non-aircond shoplot while smoking!! You can't help this LOWER cow-dung head person, even if you want, can you? Yeah right, enlighten when they strike jackpot. Hmm ...

Anyway, we need recognise the importance of our EQ and FQ. You can't STUDY from text-book about PATIeNCE, can you? Or pro-active or taking initiative? How do you READ from book to be HONEST? In your MORAL subject in SPM? Haha. I m such a cynic. Hehe

THINK POSITIVE in every aspect of our lives, including when we invest/trade. So, help yourself with many many motivational books ...

The Education just begin ...

Once you could do that : Welcome to investment world. It is NOT the other way round. You may be an Economic guru, but if you do not have the RIGHT mentality, you will NOT know how to apply your theories. Ask Economics lecturers/teachers(surely they cant be millionaires?).

Here I would like to list the books I read for past one year. To me, it is an INVESTMENT in myself, my education.

1. Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert T. Kiyosaki
2. The Millionaire In Me by Azizi Ali
3. How You Can Get Rich from Property and Stock Markets by Milan Doshi
4. Idiot's Guide to Reaching Your Goals
5. Personal Financial Planning in Malaysia by BK Lee and Andy Ong
6. The Money Book by CAP
7. Money Is My Friend by Phil Laut
8. Cash Is King by Yeo Keng Un
9. I Love Stocks by Pauline Yong
10. Investing During Bull and Bear Markkets by Dr Othman Yong
11. Essential Stock Investment Strategies by Ho Kok Mun
12. Everything Technical Analysis by Jacinta Chan
13. How You Can Invest Like the Very Rich by Martin Wong
14. How You Can Strike Rich in Stocks by Bill Wermine
15. Millionaire Exit Strategies by Bill Wermine
16. Secrets of Millionaire Investors by Adam Khoo and Conrad A Lim
17. Guide To Investing by Robert T.K and Sharon L.L
18. Top Moneytips For Malaysians by KC Lau

.... and many more from library. As for magazines, I only buy the weekly THE EDGE(stopped since last week!!) foor a year, without a miss. Other magazines, I will read it in the library such as Business Malaysia, Economist, Personal Money and such. Of coz I read a lot through internet. Also reports from broker houses : OSK, CIMB, JPMorgan, UBS.

With that said, my EDUCATION reached 20% of what I m setting out to obtain. 20% as I m setting my GOAL for 5 years. Yes, well-planned ahead. Of coz I do know MANY in KLSE much longer than me but do not see the needs to educate themselves. We all have our own goals, k? To me, I love Education ... so, I want to end-up teaching some about INVESTMENT, or may be trading(I won't charge high fees as by then I SHOULD gained much from the markets?).

Hence, while I m learning ... I m also teaching here in my BLOG!! Hehe. The lessons are FREE. It is meant to be shared as I believe WE ALL learn from each other. Some experienced ones will share their opinions ... Thanks again for those help me along. God Bless.

Make this your RESOLUTION : I WANT TO LEARN ABOUT INVESTMENT. You will not regret that as next year the global economies present us the opportunities to gain, financially. DONT DREAM ... start doing. ASK around, or ask me how to start ... JUST DO IT.



p/s: Sorry as I might sound a little FRUSTRATED when I mentioned about EDUCATION. I m living with so many un-educated people around in education line?
DOW down by 25 points.

Taken from THE STAR

KUALA LUMPUR: SHARE prices on Bursa Malaysia are expected to trade higher this week following positive indicators that Asian equities have stabilised as fears of China hiking interest rates fizzle out.

The European debt crisis was also effectively being contained by European policy makers, said an analyst, adding that it would, however, be a while before confidence and funds shift back.

Head of Retail Research at Affin Investment Bank Dr Nazri Khan, in an e-mail to Bernama, said the FBM KLCI was expected to consolidate within 1,500 and 1,520 points level this week given the improved sentiment in the local and regional markets.

He said most fund managers were encouraged by the latest economic data but remained sidelined awaiting evidence that the United States quantitative easing measures has had its desired impact.

Dr Nazri also said four main catalysts likely to propel the local market, in the near-term, were the rising foreign liquidity inflow, the year-end cosmetic dressing, rumours of possible mergers between MRCB-IJML, UEMLand-Sunrise and Maybank-OSK as well as Petronas Chemicals Group's initial public offer.

Turning to the chart, we see the FBMKLCI improving its technical position with the next immediate target pegged at the 1,520 points, he said.

For the week just-ended, the market moved within a tight range but closed higher last Friday on improved sentiment supported by Wall Street's rally and strong buying of blue chips.

The market was closed last Wednesday for the Hari Raya Aidiladha celebration.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the FBM KLCI closed 6.24 points higher at 1,506.05 compared with 1,499.81 previously.

The Finance Index declined 60.13 points to 13,756.48, the Plantation Index slipped 13.02 points to 7,758.74 but the Industrial Index gained 15.94 points to 2,875.52.

Weekly turnover declined to 4.56 billion shares, worth RM6.166bil, from 8.204 billion shares, valued at RM11.334bil, transacted previous week.

TEH : Do you think KLCI will be moving higher this week? It lost 2.5 points yesterday.

YTLPower : This is heaviest portfolio now as my queues lower done as it dived yesterday. The day YTLPower shoots up again will be my relief day. Hmm ... RSI now stands at 57, RM2.48 is a good support. If I m not mistaken, dividends will be given, Dec 3? So, I wont mind holding to mommy for dividends.

YTLPower-wb : At 1.40, support too. Premium a low 4% with expiry at 2018. So, decide to hold and collect more.

YTLPower-cb : Closed at 0.245, down 10%. So, my queues done from 0.27 till 0.245. Oh boy. Premium is low at 5.6% for a new CW, expiry at Nov 2011. This is for short-term trading. Recently I luckily sold it off at 0.30. Phew. Collecting at 0.25 level now, waiting for 0.30 again?

HWGB : I was checking on her report-card ... not bad, there is a positive turn-around, is that explaining why many buying into it? Due to punting mentality? Or liking her fundamental? Or like to play with syndicate? Or purely look into TA giving signals to buy high, sell higher? Or like her 'genting' name attached? Or ... hmm ... at how many angles should I look at her and still remain 'stupid' not to be attracted to her? i dont know why I m so discipline not to buy into these counters BUT buying into call-warrants? Riskier, right?

9.15 am : Grabbed KFC-wb for short-trade using HA.

MSports : Average at 0.490, sold at 0.535 moments ago.

MEGB : Grabbed below 2.20. Stage one. This is a waterfall I mentioned.

10.55 am : I m surprised that my SPSetia which I bought some yesterday also done 1.37. Just a short-fling for a dinner today. Thanks.

YTLPower : Very bad trade, as I moved in yesterday, now I m stuck to be looong term trader!

12.10 pm " LionInd diving down, I m queueing at 1.90, not done yet. There is a meeting for Lion's group and Parkson today, if I m not mistaken. I have bought LionInd at 2.00, so I will collect at 1.90, 1.80 and such. That is because I m still positive on steel-counters, and liking LionInd since 2 years ago! Do not love your stocks? Haha.

AnnJoo is trading below 2.90 now. Need to see if it could go to 2.80 or below.

Alam : Moving back to support at 1.11 soon. Wait.

Clearing : I m clearing MEGB and KFC-wb which I bought into today. There are too many for me to handle. Need to cut small loss on some to be able to top-up on others.

Bullish : Two weeks ago, when I attended Marc Faber's talk, and when SN Lock said next year will be super-bull, many clapping their hands. YEAH YEAH ... and I think many started to buy into market last Monday!! being kiasu, we need to be ahead of others! YEAH YEAH .. super-bull or bull-shit? haha ... he shown a bull without a shit in his slide. Haha. Funny, guy.

Now, KLCI going below 1,500 ... what do you think? Still bullish? Or your short time frame market outlook changed? Hmm ... isnt it interesting to deal with our emotions : Fear and Greed?

AirAsia : At 2.55 now, buying seen ... it was at 2.25, breaking support and it was just recently? Check out my post on AirAsia as waterfall ... beautiful with 5 technical pointers. It is flying again ... buying at 2.25, selling today giving us more than 10% now. But why buying seen today? Why today? I mean ... isnt it we read many books to buy our stocks when it is at a DISCOUNT? Why buying after it moves 12% up? Isnt that too late?

AirAsia RSI still at 50+, it is still ok. But, definitely the upside(reward) is limited with higher risk when it moves higher.

Now, can we apply such a concept of buying in our stocks? Waiting for OUR day?

SELL : Why do I need to sell my holdings? Some are only for short-trades. I sold Kencana-cc yesterday, taking profits. Today it moves lower. I need to chanel the funds to my 'ailing' YTLPower to buy more of wb at 1.30(I bought 1.40 level yesterday). When we bought a stock, BE PREPARE for it to move LOWER. Think RISK. So, I queue to sell my overbought SPSetia-wb for small profits. Again, to prepare more bullets on my 'ailing' Annjoo-wb. So, my portfolios will slowly be more focus on some stocks I want to hold for longer period of time.

Some are meant for short trade. Be it. Some are for hold-forever(LOL), then be happy to stuck with her.

MSports : I cleared it at 0.535, quite glad. It was planned last night when I see 0.535 as resistance. So, done. Now, I m going to grab it back at 0.50(if I hv funds). I do need to SELL MSports for profits as my babe, LionInd is bleeding today. Save me ...

Do read a book on HOW TO SELL, ok? Buy buy buy ... then bye bye bye.

KLSE on sales

4.45 pm : KLCI donw 13 points. I m caught with many stocks going lower now. CUT?

Malton : Grabbed her today.

LionInd : Top up just now.

9.50 pm : Oh boy ... did you read the above article by The Star? This week bullish? Of coz we do not foresee Koreans going into war? We have Ireland news now Korean news. Cant they enjoy Asian Games first? Sigh ...


Monday, November 22, 2010

WCT Bhd (Nov 19, RM3.04)

Maintain outperform at RM3.02 with target price RM4.21: WCT’s 9M10 results were below expectations as annualised core net profit came to only 82% of our full-year forecast and 90% of consensus. We were too optimistic about the timing of recognition of existing and new jobs. That said, 4Q should be better as new jobs will start contributing, activities are picking up in the Middle East and property contribution should increase. We cut our FY10 EPS forecast by 6.3% and maintain our FY11-FY12 numbers given WCT’s outstanding order book of RM4.4 billion. We maintain our “outperform” call and RM4.21 target price, which is pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to RNAV. The main re-rating catalyst is project wins. WCT is one of our top picks for the construction sector.

In 9M10, revenue sank 63.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), dragged down by the 73% y-o-y revenue slump in 3Q10 due to: (i) the completion of projects; (iii) delay in the recognition of new jobs; and (iii) slowdown in construction in the Middle East during Ramadan. However, earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin expanded 6.9 percentage points (ppts) to 12.8%, mainly due to the recognition of about RM15 million tail-end profits from the Abu Dhabi F1 job. This cushioned 9M10 core net profit which ended up down 13.3%. The absence of dividends was not a surprise

In view of the above, we cut our FY10 forecast by 6.3% which now assumes strong contribution from new jobs, a pick-up in construction activities in the Middle East and stronger property contributions. We expect 4Q to be a better quarter. Our FY11-FY12 numbers are relatively unchanged, driven by the RM4.4 billion outstanding order book and our assumption of RM1.5 billion to RM2 billion new contracts for the next two years.

The outlook for construction remains positive, both locally and overseas, and there is a strong likelihood of more contract wins in the next six months. WCT’s latest project in Qatar worth RM1.4 billion is by far the largest open tender project awarded to a local contractor this year. WCT’s YTD share price performance has lagged behind IJM Land Bhd and Gamuda Bhd’s. We view this as a buying opportunity. — CIMB Research, Nov 19
Oversold stocks

Ivory : Queue to grab at 1.13. Nice.



Classes start back to normal after students having their AS exams for past 1.5 months. So, I will be very busy with classes again ... and with more charts to analyse, I would have no time to blog much.

So, my trading strategy will have to be adjusted and no short day-trading too. When you cant monitor, you need to go for those technically nice charts to buy and hold for 2-4 weeks time. That kinda play will reduce our RISK.

RISK : We reduce risk by increasing our knowledge, by diversifying and by placing a longer time frame. I will be sharing with my 'students'(need to find a name for them) more on these this Friday.

REWARD : I asked them to look for a good 10% in a year(per annum). That is good for them as money in FD yields only 3%.

7.40 am : counter showing 272,277. Another nice number.

9.10 am : Nice move by TWSCorp this morning.

SPSetia-wb: Welcome back, babe.

YTLPower-cb : Sold at 0.30, buying back at 0.265-0.27 current level. Nice?

Kencana-cc : Sold and cleared at 0.285, as planned. Kencana's RSI at 70+ now. Thanks.

E&O : Welcome back, babe.

YTLPower-wb : Grabbed at 1.42 as it is moving lower. Queueing at 1.41, 1.40.

12.10 pm : KLCI is flat - I m wearing Yellow today, indicating that I feel market wont move up/down much. Turnover kinda low today.

YTLPower-wb : Grabbed more at 1.42. I m collecting at 1.40 level now. Using HA(hope analysis), it will shoot up to 1.50 ... sell. Anyway, it is a very good warrant to hold.

4.15 pm : Just done with 2 hours class, running off for another 2 hours.

YTLpower-cb and YTLPower-wb : All my queues done so far as it dives!! Even my cb done at 0.250 now. Do understand that when I sold it at 0.30, I DO NOT expect it to dive to 0.25 now, ok? This is a call warrant, very risky.

Note : I said I have three RM2 stocks last week - Sunway ran off Rm2, and today Kencana broker my 2.10 for me to SELL. Yes, I went for Sunway-wc at below 0.90 and Kencana-cc at 0.25-0.255. It might move higher later ... I dont know. Target achieved. Anyway, I m left with LionInd which is a stock. You see, even my three RM2-stocks divided into 3 categories - stock, warrants and call-warrants. Did ANYONE notice that 2 weeks ago when I 'exposed' my RM2 stocks namely Sunway, Kencana and LionInd?

So, basically my brain works into 'diversifying', not only sectoral-play but into time-frame and 10-20% taking profits play. Sunway-wc achieved in less than one week(after seeing the built-up for a breakout and lucky to be right?), Kencana-cc take 2 weeks plus and LionInd could take much longer it is heavy!!

TIP : Yes, my brain also work in "think in probability' and ALWAYS in such a mode when it comes to lives!! No certainty. Certainly not markets. I got TChong-cd very wrong. Cut Rm500 but today, it could even give me Rm500 profits, instead. That is RM1k difference in a week, ok? So, you see ... at that point of time, YTLPower-cb has higher chances to move up compared to TChong-cd which I been holding for almost a month now(failed to clear at 0.20 as I planned - it touched 0.20, ok?) So, I made a quick TIP check and decided to cut off TChong-cd(which in-the-money CW) and grabbed YTLPower-cb. the NET profits is more important, ok? You wont see me bang my head when TChong-cd shooting up now(due to news) as I have limited bullets. I have calculated and TIP. So, be it. Accept it and move on.

Market is a VERY noisy place. Wait till more retails coming in SOON ... it could be VERY VERY noisy.

Comment on CNX's forum :

stock alert(recent)

date : 22nd - 26 Nov.
date : 15th - 19th nov. No of views - 3947, no of replies - 204.
date : 8th - 12th Nov : 5320 and 389
date : 1st - 5th Nov : 3601 and 213
date : 25th - 29th Oct : 4166 and 205
date : 18th - 22nd Oct : 4368 and 273.

the low tide

6th - 9th Sep : 2640 and 93 only.
24th - 27th May : 1704 and 55 only.
15th - 19th Feb : 1255 and 60

Does these statistics showing you anything? Also need to consider if that particular week was a festive-week.


Sunday, November 21, 2010

Trading Idea

Adventa : A rebound seen, with flu-news. A recovery in rubber stocks?

MEGB : Trading at new low, a recent rebound shown failure. Huge upside seen. Technically oversold for very longer period of time now. I dont want to think if the sell down due to foreign funds pulling out or the PTPTN loans case. I do not bother if the IPO has been 'expensively' priced. What I do bother is ... will it find a base and rebound for me to have a short-term counter-trend trade? RSI at 27.4


NEP : Trading below MA-20. Buy when bullish crossover seen in oversold region - sell when bearish crossover seen in overbought region. Easier said than done. Do you like the 15% profits in less than 10 days? That is trading, not buy-n-hold. Volatility is welcomed.

The up in that 7-days was in tandem with crude oil price when it went to almost 88 level. Retracing to 80 level now, many oil-stocks retracing too. Wonder why I always write about crude oil prices in USD? It is a simple overview on traders view. It is an economic indicator.

6.50 am : Sunday is family day ... and I will going to Putrajaya for photo-shooting with family! Hehe.

EPL : I cant believe that Chelsea and Arsenal lost again, giving MU the advantage now. Liverpool whacked WHU 3-0, but they are not contenders this year. So, I missed their game as I rather sleep to wake up early!!

Holding power : This is something an investor should have if we are seeing market to move up higher from this point. I do not want to be over-exposed as being cautious is wise. So, whatever moving higher with high RSI, I will sell and to look into others. I do not have strong holding-power. I m actually diversifying my capitals into a few portions - and the one in 'investing portfolio' is for buy-n-hold. Even that, my holding power will not exceed half a year?

Over-diversifying showing lack of knowledge in a particular stock, and lack of confidence too.

As much as I like steel-sector at this point of time, I have divesified into buying LionInd(for its low PE, high NTA and KLSE babe character - I like her too), Kinstel(for its 'cheap' RM1 price, high volumes and nice chart too) and AnnJoo-wb(for trading and in my warrant-play).

Balancing my portfolio could be a challenge too with my 'small' limited capitals. I need to make sure some portions to be used in a higher leverage play, moving in and out of call-warrants for short trades. As I do like O&G sector too, I went for a more defensive ALAM(chosen her vs Dialog) while moving for quick trade in Kencana-cc. I m still eyeing Sapcres or SigGas.

While I wont mind holding to stocks, I do not want to hold to call-warrants. I do cut-losses, such as Tenaga-cp, TChong-cd, Bursa-co and such to move into other call-warrants or waiting for opportunities for short-trades. Recently when I said I moved into AirAsia at 2.25, actually I moved into AirAsia-ci. I have said that I wont want to encourage anyone to 'play' on the high risk call-warrant(I viewed playing with HWGB is riskier).

Averaging down, to me should be used only for good stocks where I have longer time frame(3 months?). I will average down my BStead and not TWSCorp. I will buy more into BStead and not TWSCorp. TWSCorp is very small-portioned as it is only being used to test my descending triangle(it broken the strong support recently and I m still thinking of cutting it off as the test is over). Also, I averaged down KinStel by cutting off JCY earlier. Such a decision may be fruitful or it may be risky. In market, we need to take calculated risk. For that, I use TA.

In bull-market, many will continue to go higher ... so, we could afford to average down on good stocks(with sector in play too) while riding it higher. we need to have holding-power.

Averaging up, to me should be used for an uptrending stocks in bull-market. While I like property and construction stocks( I termed them P&C = private and confidential, haha), I like Sunway and SPSetia. Going for smaller players, I like E&O(for its exposure in Penang and Klang Valley and also higher beta stock to trade) and Ivory(Penang, here I come). I do think P&C will be the theme too as it is being hotly panned out by many analysts.

Rubber-stock : Recently due to the flu news, suddenly rubber stocks went up on Friday. In the modernised world, we will see more new viruses, bacterias, disease and such ... and the demand of gloves will be higher. Perhaps, it has been factored in. I will like to take a closer look to play on its rebound. Personally, I still like the elastic-business.

As I bought TopGlove at Rm5.50 when it corrected last month, it is back to RM5.77 level now. I will sell it at RM6 level for my 10% profit. This is for my aunty, not mine. To them, 10% in ONE YEAR is very huge. Afterall, 30+ years putting money in FD(to grow??) is not a good idea of investing, anyway.
8.oo pm : Tired after a long day out - time to watch Chong Wei vs Lin Dan. Tmr will be a busy day for another one month before holiday starts ...


Saturday, November 20, 2010

My first e-mail to my 'students'.

Hi friends,

I hope you all have learnt some basics about FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS(FA) terms but the lessons have NOT started in actual yet. Much more to come.

So, have any of you done the simple exercise - listing up the 30-index linked counter in KLSE.

2. Axiata
3. BAT
4. BJToto
6. DiGi
7. Gamuda
8. GenM
9. Genting
10. HLBank
11. HLFG
12. IOICorp
13. KLK
14. MAS
15. Maxis
16. Maybank
17. MISC
18. MMCCorp
19. PBBank
20. PetDag
21. PetGas
22. Plus
23. PPB
24. RHBCap
25. Sime
26. Tenaga
27. TM
28. UMW
29. YTL
30. YTLPower

note : Plus being privitised bought by EPF, will be taken out soon.

So, done.

Next class we will learn sectors!! VERY important to understand these. Just bring a piece of ANY day biz-section of The Star paper for next Friday class, ok?

There are more works ... what are the values of PE for each of the counter above? I will show you all how to record these data using ms-excel for recording purposes. It is a must and to be update every THREE months.

EPS value given in The Star website which I've shown. So, start to calculate their PE values!!

Leave the ROE till I show you all Annual Report NEXT YEAR FEB, if all still following!!

I will give you all PE and DY in next class for discussion too.

That is all.



Welcome to the journey ... imagine you are in airplane for the FIRST time flying under turbulance conditions for 16 hours trip!!


1. AnnJoo-wb : At 0.685, RSI 47.84. Premium 8.70%. Gearing 4.28. 1/13. Top-up.

2. BRDB-wa : At 1.30, RSI 55.98. Premium (1.23%). Gearing 1.87. 9/12. Zoom.

3. Century-wb

4. Fajar-wa : At 0.63, RSI 57. Premium 1%. Gearing 1.78. 10/13. Zoom.

5. Gamuda-wd : At 1.42, RSI 51.86. Premium 10.27. Gearing2.61. 5/15. Missed.

6. Hunzapty-wb : At 0.72, RSI 60.56. Premium 8.33%. Gearing 2.33. 3/15. Missed.

7. IJM-wc : At 1.89, RSI 68.98. Premium 3.51. Gearing 3.01. 10/14. Missed.

8. IJMLand-wa

9. IJMPlant-wa

10. Jerneh-wa

11. KPJ-wa

12. KYM-wa

13. Latexx-wa

14. QSR-wb

15. Seg-wa

16. SPSetia-wb

17. Suncity-wa

18. Sunway-wc

19. WCT-wb

20 YTLPower-wb

Note : Glomac, GPAcket, KFC, KimLoong, LBS, Masteel(new), Notion, Ruberex, Salcon,TgOff, Unisem. WaSeong warrants could be used for short-term trading. Some not in my top 20 as they are of high premium tho I like the mommy(eg : WaSeong). Some are not liquid enough to trade(eg : KimLoong). Some mommies are in bad FA book(eg : GPacket). There are many more reasons/excuses for me to like one warrant than another, mostly due to technical. Yes, warrants are for trading. Trading using TA ... no FA in warrant, please.

Note : I wont even talk about HWGB, Jotech, K1, Tiger, Jadi, Petra and such. These are PUNTING get-rich quick stocks which I feel TA wont work on PURE speculative-syndicate-linked goreng aunties-luring stocks!


IJMLand-wa : This is taken from my workspace. I wont mind sharing with many, especially CNX members as we learnt the similar things. Matter if many applying what they have learnt.

Click the chart to enlarge.

Trade one : I bought at 1.33, as it broken 1.33 resistance level, with high volume seen, first green histogram, and bullish crossover. Arent that BUY signal? Bear in mind, most have read about about the 'privitisation' rumours and buying into it. I m using MA(market analysis) here. Once SDali written about it, many followers read about it and BUY. So, technically I waited for signal. 1.33 - ENTER. At 1.58, it is EXIT. Why? Technically, red histogram with bearish candlestick shown.It gave me a good 20% profits in less than 10 days.

Trade two : Then, it went lower due to profit-taking for few days for me to stalk. ENTER again on Tuesday at average 1.58 as technically BUY signal again triggered. Broken my 1.57 resistance with high volume, 1st green histogram with bullish crossover. Oh boy, NICE. Wednesday market closed. IJMLand in new news of merger with MRCB. So, yesterday I wanted to queue to clear at 1.80 ... cancelled to 1.82 ... and cancelled again to put higher at 1.84. You wont believe that I saw the buying volume so huge in the opening, I know many LATE-comers coming in... time to sell, no question asked with such HIGH RSI. LOGICAL? It closed lower at 1.75 due to people like me - profit taking. It gave me a good 15% profits in 3 days!!

Trade three : Will there be a trade three? I m still stalking and reading this news by BTimes about SDali's posts being seen as speculating on IJMLand's stock price. I m thinking on psychological side, and using TA to trade it. I m still plotting next assault or abandon it for others. Two good trades on her in less than one month is one of my best trades!! Thanks SDali for the writings. Dinner on me.


Shares of Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd and IJM Land Bhd perked up amid a weak broader market yesterday after a popular finance blog speculated on a possible merger.

The rise comes as retail investors have become more active in the market recently. Last month, they accounted for almost half of the volume traded.

IJM securities, namely the mother share and the warrants, were among the top 10 most-actively traded securities yesterday.

The mother shares gained 5.5 per cent, or 15 sen, to close at RM2.89, its highest in 40 months. The warrants were up by 16 sen to RM1.78, a record close.

Meanwhile, MRCB (1651), the master developer for the KL Sentral development in Brickfields, ended the day 9 sen higher at RM2.10 with more than 11 million shares traded.

The Malaysia-Finance Blogspot, under a post headlined "Does a MRCB-IJM Land merger make sense?", noted that "the word had switched from an IJM Land privatisation to a merger with MRCB. Something along the lines of a UEM Land-Sunrise deal it seems".

Early this month, UEM Land Holdings Bhd launched a RM1.4 billion conditional takeover offer for Sunrise Bhd.

But the price gains also indicate that financial-based blogs are becoming more influential, at least among the smaller retail investors.

Last month, another blog said that MMC Corp Bhd had made a bid to take over the UEM Group. MMC shares rose to a 27-month high on October 5 after it confirmed interest in UEM.

Jupiter Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew said financial blogs are increasingly gaining momentum in the marketplace due to renewed retail interest in equities.
TEH : Dont worry about my blog, Mr Pong. I m just an uncle talking rubbish and rojak. My reader-space is still small and they get burnt many times following my buyings. So, those have 'bad' experiences will not follow my writings la. Hehe.

Taken from