Saturday, October 30, 2010

I will not be going to the Affin's market talk as I hv some work to do. Also, I could not attend CN's meeting today as I have lunch-date with my sis/bro. To me, family come first. All these market could wait. Market is ALWAYS there ... people around may not be there with us forever?

Now, I was considering open my 'analysing service' to those reading my lines and trusted me. But, I m re-considering such an idea ... it is because we all have different risk-appetite and I m placing myself in risk. I need to take into account that majority of them are losing money at the moment, so they might be desperate. Some called me 'sifu' but how uun-true such assumptions could be. I was wrong many of times!! It is indeed amazing if someone could actually have the 'right' trade most of the time!!

Yes, I m willing to help those TOTAL blur people in market and they have to admit that they are losing money due to their LACK of knowledge and also LACK of mental capabilities to capitalise on opportunites.

IF I really could see future, for example ... AirAsia to fly from RM1.50 to RM2.50, I would have cleared ALL my holdings, get loans ... take huge margin and also borrowed some money here and there to BUY VERY HUGEly into in at RM1.50 ,... waiting for RM2.50. Yeah right ... you are looking for a wrong person, a wrong blog if you are thinking of such 'impossible' calls. Count me OUT ... and if possible, stop reading my blog as you gain nothing from here - except at times, I could be entertaining!! hehe

What I do learn from TA is to analyse a stock objectively using certain indicators. Yes, I will admit that I could analyse better than 'normal' average people around, thanks to my strong Maths abilities. I could see 'patterns' better. This is the 'service offer' I could provide my readers or anyone who who trust me(I need to trust them too).

Say, I like to buy CIMB(due to Najib or it is a blue chip or whatever reasons/excuses you have placed. I dont know) ... then it is job of technical analyst to check on when to buy, why buy at that level, when to sell and why sell at that level. Nope --- it is NOT certain. But, if we could find more than 50% chances of being RIGHT, then we have the EDGE. It is not 50-50. It is not mere guessing. Such knowledge of seeing a stock forming a certain pattern or certain formation which MIGHT have a high chance of reward is precious!!

I was lucky with my SigGas ... no one mention SigGas but today in CN's forum everyone is coming out with gases. When I bought into it at 0.88 level(and sold at 0.93, I think) I do see ascending triangle forming, waiting for breakout from 0.93 resistance. Yup, I do share it here weeks ago when I bought into it. YJ, a reader of mine bought at 0.93-0.94 too. It broke of 0.93 and all the way to RM1.04, my selling point for my first batch. It closed higher, actually. Yesterday, it has a second break-out but my RM1.20 sell not done.

Now, that is one good trade ... to me, it is just a trade. I m more interested with what I have leanrt from the trade, and what I have done right. Why do I take profit at RM1.04?? In fact it came back done and resting at RM1.04 before yesterday after lunch shoot-up. As I said, if I know it will fly higher than RM1.04, I wont be selling, right? To me, no such thing as 'what if' ...

Dont worry, there are many stocks forming into something else somewhere waiting to explode!! We just have to be patient to wait. But, if one could have a good analysis on a stock, they will know when to buy(at least near to the bottom or before it shoots up) and when they should sell(it might shoot up higher but target achieved, move on).

What chart should I show today and what learning point can I share? I m a learner myself, please do not call me 'sfu/guru'. There are many who want be called with such title - COUNT ME OUT. I am a NOVICE. You are taking a HIGH risk if you are buying into what I m buying as I do buy different stocks using different strategies, different indicators ... to TEST out my theories. Sometime I get lucky(like SigGas) sometimes I could be very wrong(like Gamuda).

I have shown IGB for sharing purposes on how a no-brainer way of trading IGB ... buy at RM1.70 support when it oversold and see at resistance at RM2.00 when it is overbought. It will be interesting if IGB could take out RM2.00 resistance convincingly. Then, RM2.00 becoming a support. That will be a different play!!

Well ..ok ... I use SunRise to share today.

SunRise : When SunRise dived from Rm2.40 to RM2.10 level, I get excited and then when I attended CN's meeting, our group was given few stocks to analyse - I kept quite as usual, listening to my music actually. Haha. Mr Chow, a veteran of CNX who recognised that I m CPTEH now(keep it to yourself, my friend) asked my opinion. Without hesitation, it is Sunrise, of coz. It was at RM2.10 then. If my target is RM2.30, it will be done yesterday, almost 10% in 3 weeks!! Is it 3 weeks ago, Mr Chow?

Anyway, technically it was so beautiful ... sideway trading at 20-MA, RSI at mid level with decreasing volumes. Very nice. I even wrote it hinting to buy at RM2.10-2.14 level.

Today it has moved with increasing volumes. When do we buy a stock again? When it is oversold. Chasing a stock which has moved could be very tiring(ask me that, I done it many times and more failure to show).

By the time SunRise move back to resistance at RM2.40 level, it will be overbought. When do we sell a stock again? When it is overbought at resistance. Simple?? Nah ... easier said than done. Ask many who still losing money! They know such simple concept after 5 years, 10 years or some 20 years in market.

So, there you are ... 3 weeks ago, they analysed SunRise ... anyone bought into it? I wonder ... I did. RM2.10 --- now RM 2.28. Buying next week, the R/R will not be good. But if next week it comes down again, alert me ... I will analyse the chart for you, for a fee!!

This Sunrise writing is for those MANY aunties/uncles in chart nexus who is still wondering if they could learn TA and catch a stock like YTLLand, YTL-e, Kuchai ... or SigGas now to gain HUGELY. Err ... sorry, aunties/uncles ... with all respect, I dont think so TA works for your trading. Perhaps after 3 years or so of using it, and still survive ... welcome graduates!!

Have a nice weekend.

counter : 253,000 at 9.20am Saturday 30th Oct.


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