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Friday, October 29, 2010

DOW at 11114 and KLCI still at 1499. Today it will attempt to break 1,500 for the third time. CIMB and Tenaga will be used to push KLCI?

7.10 am : counter showing 252,000 now.

Tenaga : I m still watching her movements as I have asked my 'investor' friends to grab her at RM8.80 level. It is still at RM8.87.

Learning Corner : Think In Probability(TIP)

Each time when people talk about 'tips', they mean ... do you have any stocks you are looking at that I could buy too and profit from there? Majority of them will LOVE you if you have 'insider tips' so that they could buy into a stock BEFORE the news is out in the media. But, those in markets loooong enough should have known that such a 'tips' may be wrong and worse still, it is to LURE us into buying a stock that they want to dispose!! how reliable is 'tips'?

Recently I have an interesting e-mail exchange with one of my reader. She asked : Is buying Tenaga at RM8.80 is a 'tips' I m giving to my readers? It is like to say ... hmm ... I know the big bosses in Tenaga about their coming reports(out yesterday, I think) before it was released. I said 'NOPE". The tips I m giving is called TIP = Think In Probability. Haha

Chart-wise, it could only give us higher PROBABILITY that a stock might move. Those indicators are just like road-signs but we need to drive the vehicle ourselves. Some of us DO NOT follow road-signs, right? OR do not follow all the road-signs, at least.

So, when Tenaga was at support level and the chart shown a nice movement, we will TIP. Possible for it to move high from the support now. This is Tenaga, ok? It is not your chap-pa-lang stocks that punters gambling on now. This Tenaga got energy to move KLCI to the next level, understand?

So, I m going to point out a tips here --- always TIP. There is no such thing as SURE go up 10% the next day la. IF anyone telling you that Tenaga will shoot up 10% on ... say, next Tuesday, he is BS(bull-shitting). From what I can think so, he is not even sincere in his call and certainly a 'crook' with ulterior motives. That is one BAD person there.

Many broker analysts are not bad - spare them, please ... they are just WORKING(cari makan) and instructed by their boss ... 'you write one good story about BUY SIME, ok? I dont care how you write la ... just ask the public to BUY the SIME, understand?

TIP : Supermax

IF we could TIP, that will be advantage to us as we are in the right track. Say, if I m asking my friend to buy Supermax at RM4, that is a HUGE risk I m taking(I wont be so lucky next time and she might kill me by now if Supermax at RM3 now!!). As she bought Supermax at RM5 and want to keep it as a coma-stock in her drawer, and jump into KheeSan instead(only those losing money in KLSE know why she is doing such a thing - ignore the old flame, look for a new pasture) ... then only I RISK myself(reputation?? hehe) asking her to buy Supermax at RM4. Then, as I know she bought at RM5 and RM4, assuming she bought the same amount to units(normally I will BUY more at RM4 - dollar averaging), he average at RM4.50. Then, we will only profit above RM4.50, right? When Supermax reaching RM4.80, it is at resistance. So by TIP, it is a sell ... higher chances of moving lower soon. I asked her to SELL last week as Supermax was STILL at RM4.80 while other rubber stocks ALREADY showing signs of weakness and retraced. So, I wrote in my blog last week that Supermax at overbought, at resistance and LAGGING behind in retracing!! SELL Supermax at RM4.80 ... no question asked, please. I m risking that it jumps up from RM4.80 and she will kill me again!! Boy, I took a very risky route guiding her to BUY ans SELL. That kind of RISK I will never want to take with my other readers!! I will be a dead meat when my calls are BAD and they want my head!! I thought you say this one Tenaga can buy at RM8.80? See what happened now? etc etc ... these words are ringing in my head IF these people could not understand TIP.

Anyway, it only dived down yesterday to RM4.63 and one of the big losers(besides AnnJoo and LionInd I mentioned yesterday). Well, the probability that it will continue to move lower is HIGHer now. TIP, ok?

Now, back to my Tenaga ... TIP, always. At RM8.80 support, chances that it will move beyond RM9 now is higher than it breaks RM8.80. Understand TIP?

Yup, that is how my brain work ... in probability. Chances that Liverpool is to beat ManU is low. So, even as an ardent Liverpool fans, do not BET that Liverpool will win. Serious, we are talking about money here not pride. We dont talk about 'You'll never walk alone' and burnt our money here, ok? Forget about pride - MONEY is more important to me now. Not pride.

10.00 am : KLCI at 1500, the magical number. Sunrise is rising, with CIMB reaching RM8.30 now. Not bad. SigGas is still waiting for time to shoot ...

I wrote about TIP this morning, if you insist the extra 's' into TIP ... then it is TIPS = Think In Probability, Stupid. TIP is just a tip of the iceberg, in trading.

12.45 pm : Lunch time - KLCI flat, steel and rubber continue to move lower. Steel-stocks have shot up too high, so the current correction is needed if its uptrend to be in tact. While as for rubber-stocks, It has rebounded hugely from last month selling spree to buying crazily. Once the crazy buying spree is over, reality coming back. I will buy TopGlove at RM5.00 and collecting more of it for my aunties. This is for aunties ... no need to see market at all for one year, ya.

Market-talk : KheeSan part II

EFG : Hi ABC ... you know what, that day you said KheeSan at 0.58, right? I quickly bought at 0.58 leh. It is at 0.60 now leh.

ABC : Hi EFG ... wah, you also look into the stock I goreng ar? Lucky you.

EFG : Ya ma ... next time you got such tips, must share la.

ABC : I m still busy with my HWGB la. This Genting is good stock, u know.

EFG : Genting? At 0.28-0.30 cents?

ABC : No la ... not Genting. This one is Genting baby, we called it. I think Mr Lim got share in it? Wah ... fatt-la ...

EFG : Never mind, I have KheeSan now. I think it will ...

CDE : Hey ladies ... sorry for being late. Caught talking to my remisier la.

EFG : Hi ... got any new tips or not??

CDE : No la ... old stuff like Keladi going to 0.25 soon. I walloped 50k units on Keladi just now lor at 0.190. A bit late but it is 0.195 now. Got money again liao ... hehe

ABC : So, we all fatt soon ...

All of the ladies were laughing as they cant believe their good fortune. Breaking the laughters ...

ABC : Hey you know what hor ... remember the friend I told you all that day arr?

EFG : Oh that stupid friend of yours who write a blog?

ABC : Ya ya ... dont say he is stupid la. No good la like that.

CDE : He is stupid ma. That day you gave me his site address, I actually clicked into his site leh. Haha ... I was laughing till my shit comes out.

ABC : Huh? What did you read ar? I also got read his writings ... but sometimes he is so cheaon-hei(long air) that I skipped those part la. I only see what stocks to punt next ma.

CDE : He is stupid. Dont you agree?!

EFG : ---nodding ---

ABC : Huh? EFG, you also got read his blog ar??

EFG : ---nodding while sipping her mocha-blended ---

ABC : He is not stupid, just that he is trading using what he called TA.

EFG : Technical Analysis?

ABC : Yes, yes ...

EFG : I heard of it before but I think those stuff are not for us la. We want to fatt-tatt fast la ... that method too low leh ...

ABC : Somemore ... he said must buying a good stock. That he called FA.

CDE : FA FA TA TA ... haha haha ... i can sing the notes! haha

ABC : Hai ya, dont make fun of my friend la. We are just different, as he told me many times. What we used is called LA + PA.

CDE : What is that??!

EFG : L:et me guess ... luck analysis and punting analysis!

ABC : Bingo. You are smart!!

EFG : Of coz ... only smart lady like me laughing to bank, with my knowledge in buying a stock, ok?

ABC : Ok ook ... lets not talk about my friend la. But, he is really hardworking leh. Wake up 5.30 am and till midnight still writing his blog.

EFG : One word : S-T-U-P-I-D.

CDE : Spelt STUPID!!

CDE and EFG : --- laughing un-controlable ---

ABC : Ok ok ... ladies, can we discuss about our plans and strategies on what to punt next?? That is why we are meeting regularly for, ok?

Waiter : Excuse me, maam. Your latte ...

ABC : Thanks.

EFG : So ... I bought KheeSan, it is at 0.60 now. I remember your stupid friend said not to buy KheeSan at 0.50, right?

CDE : Next time we read his blog ... he said dont buy, we buy. Sure kena jack-pot. A dumb person could only be dumber. Hehe

EFG : Good idea too ... did he say anything not to buy?

CDE : Not at the moment ... hmm ... he bought HuaYang, Sunrise ... SigGas and recently Jaks and LionInd.

ABC : He bought call-warrants too. But that one too risk for me la.

CDE : Call warrants? What is that? A stock too?

ABC : I think so la ... I see CIMB-ci so cheap. But, I do notice that CIMB up, this call-warrant also move up leh.

EFG : Hey hey ... that is cool! May be we should punt into call-warrants too!!

CDE : Yeah ... good idea!! Let us do some homework together now, see what to punt la, ok??

Waiter : Your change, maam.

EFG : Keep the change. It is just a small tips of RM8.

Waiter : ---smiling --- thank you, maam.

3.10 pm : SigGas jumps again ...

LionInd : Moving lower ...

A personal stock analyst

10.45 pm : Recently a reader, NJ willing to TRUST my analysis and willing to pay me XX for an analysis of a stock that he wants to BUY. So, yes ... timing market is a difficult thing.

NJ, thanks for trusting me. Nope, I wont disclose any of your particulars here as it P&C between us. I am professional, ok? But, I m writing here as an initial way to promote my 'skills in analysing' to many those who dont know anything much about stock markets!!

Wait ... it is base on TRUST - I need to trust that you will PAY me that 'small token' for my analysis and you need to trust that I do know a 'little' of knowledge in analysing a stock for you!! But, the responsibilities are fully yours. I could only tell you WHY I bought XYZ at that level, what to do next if it goes lower/higher. I could only tell you when to sell, technically speaking but YOU need to decide if you are selling at that level, fair?

So, I do hope I could trust NJ, being his personal stock analyst!! Haha ... yes, it is challenging as I do NOT know any of my readers(except those knew me personally lar). Come to think of it, I m putting my skills in test - I could put myself in HOT-SOUP again when they lose money. MONEY is a TABOO, remember?

Anyway, you need to write a long 'introduction' of yourself on your risk appetite - dont bother to look for my opinions IF you asking KheeSan bounced from 0.50 to 0.61 now. Can buy or not? That you could ask the taxi drivers the next time you are in a cab as I believe they heard more rumours or news about KheeSan or Jadi than I do.

So, should I charge RM1 for each time visiting my blog? With 1k clicks per day, I could be RICH. No need to work, just write this blog ... excuse me, sir/maam ... err ... effective from Nov 1st, I m collecting a toll of RM1(I promised not to increase the charges for 5 years, ok?) each time you are visiting my blog. Hmm .. that is a good idea. TOLL TOLL ... by the way, did you notice that Litrak stock price moving? Speculating that EPF will be buying Litrak too? Smell fishy ... want me to analyse Litrak in lay-man term to you? Yes, I analyse it so that you and me can understand cukup la. Why go so 'deep' with all those terms and 8 to 10 indicators.

Yippee ... NJ, I m glad that there is a reader trusting my analysis! Hehe. And being paid for working hard is worth it. Now, everyone want 'free lunch', right? THINK again ...

CNX, are you going to employ me as part-time trainer? Train me to be a trainer? Hmm ... interesting ... in My Trading Adventure.

TEH

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