Saturday, October 02, 2010

Call Warrants to watch

TChong-cd : At 0.215, trading at a discount of 1%.

BJToto-cg : Closed at 0.070, low at 0.06 level. BJToto at RM4.17, still trading below RM4.20. Premium below 10%, expiring on May 2011. 0.065 would be a good punt, and recently it goreng-ed to 0.10 level.

Tenaga-cp : Closed at 0.165. Premium below 10%. Beautiful chart as Tenaga is going through correction period. Its trading at a low of 0.140 and a high of 0.190. At 0.160, it is a BUY. Mommy trading at support level, very nice. Adding to its name CP = me. So, if you have to ask why I m going to buy into this one, it is because of its code-name, ok? haha

p/s : MYR strengthening will benefit Tenaga.

Gamuda-cl vs Gamuda-cm : The CL at its new high of 0.260 while CM, the latest Gamuda's baby is consolidating. Premium-wise CL is lower but CM only at 10%, actually. Volume wise ...CM is one of the most actively traded CW at the moment. Hence, due to these three points, I selected CM to be of slightly a better probability to trade. Another good one is CI, doing a parabolic curve reversal. At 0.230 and low premium, it is very good too.

MPHB-ca : Closed at 0.250, premium 5%, expiring on Mac 2011. MPHB rebounding and may continue its uptrend. Low at 0.170-0.180 level. Watching 0.25 level as a break above this with high volume will generate some interests in it for CWs punters/traders.

CIMB-cj : At 0.165, this is a new CW offered by OSK. Touched a high of 0.21. I started with 1k units each at 0.20 and 0.205. Then it retraced lower and i grabbed more at 0.17-0.18 in the first day. So, I shall wait to collect more as market is bullish(or bull shit?). CIMB is retracing but perhaps on profit-taking. Watch CIMB and KLCI. If both turn bearish, 0.150 will be my cutting point.

Expiry date at Sept 2011 and ratio of 10 :1. Strike price at RM8. Premium around 20% level. No chart is needed as it is only two days old.

Supermax-ca : Closed at 0.125. I hv mentioned about my 'mistake'(of selling) on it but I have grabbed back. It is NOT easy to admit defeat, cutting off with losses only to see your stock move up 25% the next day. I m very objective - I cut it off as it goes to 0.100 my cut-loss point. In fact it went to 0.095 and I was queueing at 0.09. The next day morning it was still in RED. Hence, as I was queueing at 0.09, then it went up FAST, I queued 0.095 ... too fast. So, I grabbed 0.105-0.120. I think my average is around 0.115 now. Target price ... 0.180-0.190 when buying into Supermax might exhaust and retrace back again. Grabbed at 0.120 and to sell at 0.180 is an extremely good trade. That is 50% profit, mind you. Shall we watch my theory? Again, I will CUT if it goes below 0.10 ... my cut-loss point. By the way, the premium is 30% level which is HIGH(my criteria is below 20%) but the expiry date at Mac 2011. Technically, using RSI ... I like its oversold status.

Chart-wise : A divergence in price and MACD histogram seen. Bullish crossover of MACD lines. Volume increased significantly on Friday, and up 25% in a day. Supermax(which I entered too) closed above RM4, rebounding with the whole rubberish-sector, the elastic-rubber. Hence, be as elastic as possible if you are buying into rubber-stocks at the moment, ok? The TREND is DOWN ... so, do CUT it off if rebound fails. Technically RSI at extreme oversold and I hv written how much I love these waterfall. Watch it closely or we might get drown if the water really too hard falling on us. Place a CUT LOSS to your risk-appetite accordingly.

UEMLand-cc : Closed at 0.305, I have grabbed back this one for the third time now. Premium below 10% with mommy uptrending and in HOT news, moving together with Gamuda, MMCCorp, WCT, MRCB and such. On Friday, UEMLand in red, touched 2.24 but managed to close at 2.30. Watching on Monday, and IF mommy still in profit-taking mode, I will grab more below 0.300 and WAIT.

GenM-cl : Closed at 0.160, I have cut it off for a loss, actually. Currently it is trading below 10% premium. Expiry date on Feb 2011, mommy uptrending and the current correction is a GOOD time to collect. So, I will still watch this one closely, as I do believe GenM will test 3.60 level again. GenM-cl is a BUY at 0.15-0.16 level.

QL : The above is a monthly chart since its inception. Certainly one of the best performing stock in KLSE. It is a darling of many investors!! It has been uptrending since then ... and sky is the limit at the moment. With bullish market sentiments, it is good that AMMB offering its new baby, QL-ca for those who which to look for 'cheaper' entry and riding on its uptrend.

QL-ca : Being mentioned in The Edge. Listed on Sept 28th, ratio 6:1 and strike price at RM4.50. QL closed at RM4.72 and QL-ca closed at 0.165(0.17 is planted, so not counted - this is the weakness using daily candle-sticks as it wont be shown!). So, RM4.50 + RM0.99 = RM5.49. So, premium below 20%. As expiry in Sept 2011, more upside seen IF you are bullish in QL. Fundamental of mommy is good, it is uptrending.

So, using QL-ca as an example ... it satisfied most of my initial conditions. Conditions such as mommy on uptrend and good fundamentally. Conditions such as long expiry date and low premium making it attractive. This give us higher chances of upside while we could afford to hold longer. Now as I mentioned, TA could not really be used for CWs, we need to look into its mommy. By adding TA on QL, we could have a good trade, with high leverage play. IF QL gaining another 10%, we could treat your friends a good dinner(please invite me too) from the profits of QL-ca. Theoritically, ratio 6:1 means, QL gains 10% QL-ca gains 60%? WOW. Hence, I will place it as the next CW to buy and hold ... yes, hold for few days to weeks.

Supermax-ca, UEMLand-cc, Gaumda-cm, GenM-cl generates very high volume, but MPHB, QL are not. So, MPHB/QL could be for those not day-trading or playing contra but to ride on the uptrend of their mommies' backs.

Warning : Buying Call Warrants is VERY risky if you dont know what it is about and if you could NOT stomach 10-20% losses. So, I will highly recommend that these call-warrants are being used to TRADE and PUNT, not for investing. It becomes valueless nearing its expiry date and if it is not in-money. You may check how I gained 40% in trading GenS-c8 only to cut it off the next day for a 20% loss. Result : It is a 20% profit(the up and down percentage is NOT symmetical, actually. If you dont even know such basic, dont touch call warrants, ok?).


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