Sunday, October 31, 2010

KIM LUN : 1st Green seen ... time to rebound soon.


KIMLUN CORPORATION BERHAD is an engineering and construction services provider specialising in infrastructure and building construction, project management, industrial building systems (IBS) and manufacture of concrete products. Ancillary to their core business, they also trade in construction and building materials. They have the ability to act as a one-stop services provider, capable of providing a complete and integrated range of concrete products and engineering and construction services to their customers.

Website :

I am not buying KimLun tho it triggers the buy and the upside could be huge. I dont have the bullets anymore. I m sharing it here that I m analysis KimLun for a reader and planned the trade for him. Yes, for a 'small' token .. to test my skills(if any) in analysing a stock : FA + TA.
Construction and property in play. Yes, KimLun is newly listed may benefit from that(speculatively). I have not read much about this company to talk about its FA. But, technically speaking, it is a good buy if it could break 20-MA next week(I do believe it is likely) and and testing 1.60 resistance. I m putting a RISK if I m saying it is a BUY at 1.40, ok? So, this is NOT a buy call. Read my disclaimer.

Sunday morning ... I received a few request to help them to analyse a few stocks for them but none is sincere to have a deal with me. All want a 'free lunch'. So, nope ... I will only post those stocks that I want to analyse ... most of the time not in-depth in my 'free' blog. Some stocks are for my friends, those who know me. At least they will treat me a dinner or my D&C, ok?

I repeat again : I will not entertain requests to analyse this or that. What do you think of KNM? Plantation stocks are moving, do you think I could still consider BStead? etc etc ... no comment from me. I will only say on surface my opinions, that is OK as that is not a buy/sell call. Read my disclaimer.

動力火車 -忠孝東路走九遍

Warrants that I like

1. AnnJoo-wb - moving to support
2. BRDB-wa - pennant in making
3. IJM-wc - strong uptrend
4. IJMLand-wa - missed the boat - bye bye
5. KPJ-wa - ascending triangle
6. SPSetia-wb - missed the boat - shooting star!
7. Sunway-wc - at 20MA.

To win in a trade, you must be able to stomach some losses!!

When we buy into a stock, we BELIEVE that it will move higher. Then, as we have it ... each time when we buy a stock, it moves lower. We still want to believe it will rebound. And if it continues to go lower, we started to doubt own beliefs. Hmm ... what went wrong? we asked.

First of all, perhaps our entry point is NOT right. We bought when it is overbought. We may not know anything about TA(many do not) So, logically it retraces and we are losing the confidence in our trade!!

Next, since we initially believed that that particular stock will move higher, why not average-down? We were taught NOT to average down our losing trade(as our bullets will stuck in) but cut-loss instead. It was obvious we dont have a good plan for the trade and 'accidentally' bought when it is at its peak. For majority who do not know much about stocks, it is a common situation.

Say, I bought AnnJoo at RM3.30 recently(at its peak)without knowing that at 3.30, it is a resistance and it was at overbought. It has been chased up from 2.30 since June.

So, we are in dilemma ... it is down down down ... oh boy, it is at RM3 now. What should I do as I m down almost 10% in days!! And I didnt plan to cut loss!!

Before you sell it off tmr, THINK. Why it goes down? Do you STILL believe that it will move higher or reversal in play?

If you still believe it SHOULD move higher(you have your own justification, I know), then it is only logical to average-down.


Saturday, October 30, 2010

Waterfalls : Education

HELP : At 2.40 support level, breaking this level ... let us look at 2.20 then. Then, the landscape changed. Can I help you with your HELP?

SEG-wa : At its low, watching it to drift further down and breaking RM1 soon? SEG's RSI at 31 level, and since it has been drifting(not diving) it is NOT a nice waterfall for me. Now, I wont grab SEG-wa tho it is in-the-money with 1750 days to expire(my tww main criteria in a warrant - low premium and long expiry date) because to play warrant, we need an uptrending stock(unless it is a put-warrant). Unless I have lots of bullet to wait for it to rebound. At the moment, the hammer failed. The only chance will be it move sideway, forming a base for a while before rebounding again.

Both SEG and HELP have shot too fast and furious, reality is back. Those without cut-loss point are still(and will) stuck inside. Warrrants are for trading, not for buy-n-hold. We buy warrants only when we see mommy has a potential of moving higher. KFC and QSR in mind.

So, what should I do if I have bought into SEG-wa and it is at the bottom now? No one could tell at the moment if it will form a base(best case scenario) or drift lower. A sharp rebound is not really possible(after the failed hammer). Technically speaking, it is bearish. AVOID at the moment. Those stucked, could only wait for it to move sideway. If the loss is not so much, cut it off and look lower. If you could wait and have enough bullets ... then HOLD.

It is in my warrant stalk list and also in my waterfall list. Beautiful, actually. Just that it is not time to buy YET. The upside is huge, so watch ...

My Call Warrants (update)

CIMB : At 8.29, reaching my 8.32 target soon. As RSI at 67, going into overbought level soon, count me OUT. Once target at 8.32 achieved, it will be a sell SOON for me. Surprisingly, its CIMB-ci which moving from 0.245 to 0.285, closed at 0.280 and in-the-money now. When I bought it at 0.26 level, premium was at 3%, if I m not mistaken. It shows that this baby is not really an obidient type who will follow his mommy closely!! Anyway, bullish-crossover seen with green histograms above zero level now. When to sell? HIGH at 0.295 ... so, I will be watching CIMB closely. Expiring in 2 months time. Watch.

Bursa : Closed at 8.59 now, testing the resistance 8.64 soon. Will it break away from the ascending triangle here? The Edge written about Bursa and Yusli in focus. Do read 'Wake-up call for Bursa' and watch what is the impact on Bursa's stock prices next week, ok? Bursa does not want to lag behind their neighbours but seriously, Indon and Thai(even Phillipines soon?) markets are doing better than ours(in many sense). SGX + ASX ... will that really attracts more foreign investors and spill over to our Bursa? Watch ... I do like such interesting developments in markets as I do track STI too. As for the Bursa-co I m still holding, it is still at 0.115, premium at 3.63%. It is expiring in 3 months time. HIGH RISK.

TanChong : At 5.66, needs to re-test 5.70 again and break this immediate resistance level, and move above 20-MA line(red). MACD, RSI and Stochastic positive. Good volume on Friday. RM6.00 is still the high level, a resistance and also my target. TChong-cd will be at 0.25 if TChong could move to RM6.00. It is in-the-money warrant now. Note that it is expiring in 3 months time. HIGH RISK.

Note : Only CIMB-ci giving me paper-profits while the other two still neutral.


Newly Listed IPOs (ACE market)


Focus Point


Flash-back : DEC 2008 - almost two years ago. I started this blog in 08.08.08. This post is interesting as I was testing my knowledge while listening to Mr KH Ooi, one of MY 'sifu', indirectly.

When Will Our Stock Market Recovers? By Ooi Kok Hwa
(The Star)

THE world’s stock markets, including Malaysia’s, have recovered lately.

Some analysts have viewed this recovery as window dressing activities while others have called it bear market rallies.

TEH : Whatever they call it, it is a rebound and we should ride the short-term tide.

And there are those who wonder whether we have seen the worst.

TEH : Obviously, NO. Worst is yet to come. Wait for 2Q2009 reports.

They are eager to know whether the current stock market level has reflected all the negative news, like the sharp drop in consumer spending, higher unemployment rates or lower sales and lower profits for most of the listed companies in the coming corporate result announcements.
Every investor wants to know when will the market recovers.

Some investors may be excited about the current stock market level as a lot of good quality stocks have been hammered down to attractive levels, and are keen to start accumulating them.
However, if the stock market continues to dip for long periods, certain investors may run out of “bullets” to average down their purchasing prices.

TEH : Don't average down. CUT loss is the game in BEAR market, if your buyings are against you. Accept small defeats, keep the bullets for greater war.

Then, they will start losing interest in the stock market as they do not have cash to purchase further and their earlier purchases also start to show losses.

TEH : Then, they need to LEARN first. EDUCATE yourself.

We need to prepare ourselves for the market turnaround.

TEH : Yes, fully agreed.

However, we need to be patient and wait for the right time to invest.

TEH : Hmm ... difficult to know the RIGHT time. Use strategies and plan out your buyings.

In this article, we will look into the past two major downcycles: the 1998 crash and 2000 crash versus the current 2008 crash.

From the table, it can be seen that the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled by almost 80% in a period of 18 months during the 1998 crash versus a drop of 45% in a period of 13 months during the 2000 crash.

The percentage drop and duration of the 2000 crash were much less severe and shorter compared to the 1998 crash.

For the current 2008 crash, our KLCI has plunged by 47% to its lowest level of 801 points on Oct 28.

If investors believe that the current crash is quite similar to the 2000 crash, then we may have seen the worst as the current percentage drop of 47% is near the 2000 crash of 45%.

However, if the 2008 crash mirrors the 1998 crash, then we may have to wait until the KLCI touches about the 300-point level (assuming the same 79.4% drop in the 1998 crash) before we can see any real recovery.

TEH : I think KLCI will not see 300-points. I m looking at 650, even that I m being very conservative.

Hence, we may have to wait for another nine months or until September 2009 (assuming the same duration of 18 months).

TEH : That is what most analysts predicting the location of 2008 crash bottom.

We do not think the 2008 crash is similar to the 1998 crash.

TEH : Yes, agreed too. It is DEFINITELY not the same. In 1998 crash, it was ASIAN financial crisis, it was regional and DIRECT into our financial systems. As we all know, 2008 crash is due to the sub-prime crisis started in US housing last year. Of course the domino-effects from there were tremendous. We are LESS affected by it(compared to Europe, Singapore and Hong Kong, for examples) as we are so-called DUMB enough not to know about their 'products'. Ignorance is a BLISS here. So, we are less exposed. BNM ... betul ka?

Our current economic situation, like central bank reserves, the health of the banking sector as well as economic fundamentals, are much better compared to 1998. However, as mentioned earlier, we need to prepare ourselves for the worst.

TEH : YUP. Double-yup!!

What to expect from here on?

Our market will try to absorb all the negative news.

As long as the market continues to drop as a result of negative news, we know we have not seen the bottom yet.

TEH : Yes, that is an important indicator too when we try to look for its bottom.

We have to wait for the day when the stock market refuses to come down even when it is loaded with massive negative news; that should be the right time to buy.

Unfortunately, based on our past observations, by then most investors may not have any more cash to purchase or they will still worry about the economic situation.

TEH : I might be VERY NEW and NEVER have any experiences in any bull-runs, but currently I m dealing with a BEAR market. I think we all SHOULD listen to those know-how. So, I will listen to him. Yes, I agreed.

Investors need to understand that stock market cycles are always ahead of economic cycles.
Normally, when the stock market hits the bottom, the economic situation is uncertain or is still getting worse.

TEH : Yes, about 6 months ahead. So, by the time economy recovers, markets have bottom-out.

Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser licensed by the Securities Commission and managing partner of MRR Consulting

TODAY - This article was taken AFTER the Sept crash(I lost 60% of my capitals then), recovery was in place(recovered my losses in Jan 2009) .. then, crash again in Mac(much more experience liao ... started to coach Dr Julian Lim to BUY at dip) ... only to see it recovered STRONGLY till now ... it has been 1.5 years of BULL ... we are back to 1,500 level.

Will add in my comments tonight if I m free.

I will not be going to the Affin's market talk as I hv some work to do. Also, I could not attend CN's meeting today as I have lunch-date with my sis/bro. To me, family come first. All these market could wait. Market is ALWAYS there ... people around may not be there with us forever?

Now, I was considering open my 'analysing service' to those reading my lines and trusted me. But, I m re-considering such an idea ... it is because we all have different risk-appetite and I m placing myself in risk. I need to take into account that majority of them are losing money at the moment, so they might be desperate. Some called me 'sifu' but how uun-true such assumptions could be. I was wrong many of times!! It is indeed amazing if someone could actually have the 'right' trade most of the time!!

Yes, I m willing to help those TOTAL blur people in market and they have to admit that they are losing money due to their LACK of knowledge and also LACK of mental capabilities to capitalise on opportunites.

IF I really could see future, for example ... AirAsia to fly from RM1.50 to RM2.50, I would have cleared ALL my holdings, get loans ... take huge margin and also borrowed some money here and there to BUY VERY HUGEly into in at RM1.50 ,... waiting for RM2.50. Yeah right ... you are looking for a wrong person, a wrong blog if you are thinking of such 'impossible' calls. Count me OUT ... and if possible, stop reading my blog as you gain nothing from here - except at times, I could be entertaining!! hehe

What I do learn from TA is to analyse a stock objectively using certain indicators. Yes, I will admit that I could analyse better than 'normal' average people around, thanks to my strong Maths abilities. I could see 'patterns' better. This is the 'service offer' I could provide my readers or anyone who who trust me(I need to trust them too).

Say, I like to buy CIMB(due to Najib or it is a blue chip or whatever reasons/excuses you have placed. I dont know) ... then it is job of technical analyst to check on when to buy, why buy at that level, when to sell and why sell at that level. Nope --- it is NOT certain. But, if we could find more than 50% chances of being RIGHT, then we have the EDGE. It is not 50-50. It is not mere guessing. Such knowledge of seeing a stock forming a certain pattern or certain formation which MIGHT have a high chance of reward is precious!!

I was lucky with my SigGas ... no one mention SigGas but today in CN's forum everyone is coming out with gases. When I bought into it at 0.88 level(and sold at 0.93, I think) I do see ascending triangle forming, waiting for breakout from 0.93 resistance. Yup, I do share it here weeks ago when I bought into it. YJ, a reader of mine bought at 0.93-0.94 too. It broke of 0.93 and all the way to RM1.04, my selling point for my first batch. It closed higher, actually. Yesterday, it has a second break-out but my RM1.20 sell not done.

Now, that is one good trade ... to me, it is just a trade. I m more interested with what I have leanrt from the trade, and what I have done right. Why do I take profit at RM1.04?? In fact it came back done and resting at RM1.04 before yesterday after lunch shoot-up. As I said, if I know it will fly higher than RM1.04, I wont be selling, right? To me, no such thing as 'what if' ...

Dont worry, there are many stocks forming into something else somewhere waiting to explode!! We just have to be patient to wait. But, if one could have a good analysis on a stock, they will know when to buy(at least near to the bottom or before it shoots up) and when they should sell(it might shoot up higher but target achieved, move on).

What chart should I show today and what learning point can I share? I m a learner myself, please do not call me 'sfu/guru'. There are many who want be called with such title - COUNT ME OUT. I am a NOVICE. You are taking a HIGH risk if you are buying into what I m buying as I do buy different stocks using different strategies, different indicators ... to TEST out my theories. Sometime I get lucky(like SigGas) sometimes I could be very wrong(like Gamuda).

I have shown IGB for sharing purposes on how a no-brainer way of trading IGB ... buy at RM1.70 support when it oversold and see at resistance at RM2.00 when it is overbought. It will be interesting if IGB could take out RM2.00 resistance convincingly. Then, RM2.00 becoming a support. That will be a different play!!

Well ..ok ... I use SunRise to share today.

SunRise : When SunRise dived from Rm2.40 to RM2.10 level, I get excited and then when I attended CN's meeting, our group was given few stocks to analyse - I kept quite as usual, listening to my music actually. Haha. Mr Chow, a veteran of CNX who recognised that I m CPTEH now(keep it to yourself, my friend) asked my opinion. Without hesitation, it is Sunrise, of coz. It was at RM2.10 then. If my target is RM2.30, it will be done yesterday, almost 10% in 3 weeks!! Is it 3 weeks ago, Mr Chow?

Anyway, technically it was so beautiful ... sideway trading at 20-MA, RSI at mid level with decreasing volumes. Very nice. I even wrote it hinting to buy at RM2.10-2.14 level.

Today it has moved with increasing volumes. When do we buy a stock again? When it is oversold. Chasing a stock which has moved could be very tiring(ask me that, I done it many times and more failure to show).

By the time SunRise move back to resistance at RM2.40 level, it will be overbought. When do we sell a stock again? When it is overbought at resistance. Simple?? Nah ... easier said than done. Ask many who still losing money! They know such simple concept after 5 years, 10 years or some 20 years in market.

So, there you are ... 3 weeks ago, they analysed SunRise ... anyone bought into it? I wonder ... I did. RM2.10 --- now RM 2.28. Buying next week, the R/R will not be good. But if next week it comes down again, alert me ... I will analyse the chart for you, for a fee!!

This Sunrise writing is for those MANY aunties/uncles in chart nexus who is still wondering if they could learn TA and catch a stock like YTLLand, YTL-e, Kuchai ... or SigGas now to gain HUGELY. Err ... sorry, aunties/uncles ... with all respect, I dont think so TA works for your trading. Perhaps after 3 years or so of using it, and still survive ... welcome graduates!!

Have a nice weekend.

counter : 253,000 at 9.20am Saturday 30th Oct.


Friday, October 29, 2010

Market Chat

Topic: Bursa-Affin Market Chat 2010

Coverage : Malaysia Stock Market Outlook & Stock Pick Insight

Date: 30th October 2010, Saturday

Venue: Menara PGRM, Auditorium University, Seri Cempaka Services Suites,
Tower 2, Level 3A, Jalan Pudu Ulu, Cheras Kuala Lumpur

Time: 9.00am to 1.00pm (Registration starts at 8.30am)

Event Itinerary:

•Arrival of guests and registration.
•Presentation of new investment choices by representative of Bursa Malaysia
•Presentation on e-trading platform by representative of Affin Investment Bank
•Technical watch and Market outlook by Retail Strategist of Affin Investment Bank
•Stock pick insights by Retail Strategist of Affin Investment Bank
•Q & A
•Seminar ends
Admission: Free (Refreshment will be provided)

For Registration ,please Call Affin Investment Bank Customer Service at 03-2143 1113

Limited Seat Only…….So Don’t Miss Out

Copied from Alan's blog.
DOW at 11114 and KLCI still at 1499. Today it will attempt to break 1,500 for the third time. CIMB and Tenaga will be used to push KLCI?

7.10 am : counter showing 252,000 now.

Tenaga : I m still watching her movements as I have asked my 'investor' friends to grab her at RM8.80 level. It is still at RM8.87.

Learning Corner : Think In Probability(TIP)

Each time when people talk about 'tips', they mean ... do you have any stocks you are looking at that I could buy too and profit from there? Majority of them will LOVE you if you have 'insider tips' so that they could buy into a stock BEFORE the news is out in the media. But, those in markets loooong enough should have known that such a 'tips' may be wrong and worse still, it is to LURE us into buying a stock that they want to dispose!! how reliable is 'tips'?

Recently I have an interesting e-mail exchange with one of my reader. She asked : Is buying Tenaga at RM8.80 is a 'tips' I m giving to my readers? It is like to say ... hmm ... I know the big bosses in Tenaga about their coming reports(out yesterday, I think) before it was released. I said 'NOPE". The tips I m giving is called TIP = Think In Probability. Haha

Chart-wise, it could only give us higher PROBABILITY that a stock might move. Those indicators are just like road-signs but we need to drive the vehicle ourselves. Some of us DO NOT follow road-signs, right? OR do not follow all the road-signs, at least.

So, when Tenaga was at support level and the chart shown a nice movement, we will TIP. Possible for it to move high from the support now. This is Tenaga, ok? It is not your chap-pa-lang stocks that punters gambling on now. This Tenaga got energy to move KLCI to the next level, understand?

So, I m going to point out a tips here --- always TIP. There is no such thing as SURE go up 10% the next day la. IF anyone telling you that Tenaga will shoot up 10% on ... say, next Tuesday, he is BS(bull-shitting). From what I can think so, he is not even sincere in his call and certainly a 'crook' with ulterior motives. That is one BAD person there.

Many broker analysts are not bad - spare them, please ... they are just WORKING(cari makan) and instructed by their boss ... 'you write one good story about BUY SIME, ok? I dont care how you write la ... just ask the public to BUY the SIME, understand?

TIP : Supermax

IF we could TIP, that will be advantage to us as we are in the right track. Say, if I m asking my friend to buy Supermax at RM4, that is a HUGE risk I m taking(I wont be so lucky next time and she might kill me by now if Supermax at RM3 now!!). As she bought Supermax at RM5 and want to keep it as a coma-stock in her drawer, and jump into KheeSan instead(only those losing money in KLSE know why she is doing such a thing - ignore the old flame, look for a new pasture) ... then only I RISK myself(reputation?? hehe) asking her to buy Supermax at RM4. Then, as I know she bought at RM5 and RM4, assuming she bought the same amount to units(normally I will BUY more at RM4 - dollar averaging), he average at RM4.50. Then, we will only profit above RM4.50, right? When Supermax reaching RM4.80, it is at resistance. So by TIP, it is a sell ... higher chances of moving lower soon. I asked her to SELL last week as Supermax was STILL at RM4.80 while other rubber stocks ALREADY showing signs of weakness and retraced. So, I wrote in my blog last week that Supermax at overbought, at resistance and LAGGING behind in retracing!! SELL Supermax at RM4.80 ... no question asked, please. I m risking that it jumps up from RM4.80 and she will kill me again!! Boy, I took a very risky route guiding her to BUY ans SELL. That kind of RISK I will never want to take with my other readers!! I will be a dead meat when my calls are BAD and they want my head!! I thought you say this one Tenaga can buy at RM8.80? See what happened now? etc etc ... these words are ringing in my head IF these people could not understand TIP.

Anyway, it only dived down yesterday to RM4.63 and one of the big losers(besides AnnJoo and LionInd I mentioned yesterday). Well, the probability that it will continue to move lower is HIGHer now. TIP, ok?

Now, back to my Tenaga ... TIP, always. At RM8.80 support, chances that it will move beyond RM9 now is higher than it breaks RM8.80. Understand TIP?

Yup, that is how my brain work ... in probability. Chances that Liverpool is to beat ManU is low. So, even as an ardent Liverpool fans, do not BET that Liverpool will win. Serious, we are talking about money here not pride. We dont talk about 'You'll never walk alone' and burnt our money here, ok? Forget about pride - MONEY is more important to me now. Not pride.

10.00 am : KLCI at 1500, the magical number. Sunrise is rising, with CIMB reaching RM8.30 now. Not bad. SigGas is still waiting for time to shoot ...

I wrote about TIP this morning, if you insist the extra 's' into TIP ... then it is TIPS = Think In Probability, Stupid. TIP is just a tip of the iceberg, in trading.

12.45 pm : Lunch time - KLCI flat, steel and rubber continue to move lower. Steel-stocks have shot up too high, so the current correction is needed if its uptrend to be in tact. While as for rubber-stocks, It has rebounded hugely from last month selling spree to buying crazily. Once the crazy buying spree is over, reality coming back. I will buy TopGlove at RM5.00 and collecting more of it for my aunties. This is for aunties ... no need to see market at all for one year, ya.

Market-talk : KheeSan part II

EFG : Hi ABC ... you know what, that day you said KheeSan at 0.58, right? I quickly bought at 0.58 leh. It is at 0.60 now leh.

ABC : Hi EFG ... wah, you also look into the stock I goreng ar? Lucky you.

EFG : Ya ma ... next time you got such tips, must share la.

ABC : I m still busy with my HWGB la. This Genting is good stock, u know.

EFG : Genting? At 0.28-0.30 cents?

ABC : No la ... not Genting. This one is Genting baby, we called it. I think Mr Lim got share in it? Wah ... fatt-la ...

EFG : Never mind, I have KheeSan now. I think it will ...

CDE : Hey ladies ... sorry for being late. Caught talking to my remisier la.

EFG : Hi ... got any new tips or not??

CDE : No la ... old stuff like Keladi going to 0.25 soon. I walloped 50k units on Keladi just now lor at 0.190. A bit late but it is 0.195 now. Got money again liao ... hehe

ABC : So, we all fatt soon ...

All of the ladies were laughing as they cant believe their good fortune. Breaking the laughters ...

ABC : Hey you know what hor ... remember the friend I told you all that day arr?

EFG : Oh that stupid friend of yours who write a blog?

ABC : Ya ya ... dont say he is stupid la. No good la like that.

CDE : He is stupid ma. That day you gave me his site address, I actually clicked into his site leh. Haha ... I was laughing till my shit comes out.

ABC : Huh? What did you read ar? I also got read his writings ... but sometimes he is so cheaon-hei(long air) that I skipped those part la. I only see what stocks to punt next ma.

CDE : He is stupid. Dont you agree?!

EFG : ---nodding ---

ABC : Huh? EFG, you also got read his blog ar??

EFG : ---nodding while sipping her mocha-blended ---

ABC : He is not stupid, just that he is trading using what he called TA.

EFG : Technical Analysis?

ABC : Yes, yes ...

EFG : I heard of it before but I think those stuff are not for us la. We want to fatt-tatt fast la ... that method too low leh ...

ABC : Somemore ... he said must buying a good stock. That he called FA.

CDE : FA FA TA TA ... haha haha ... i can sing the notes! haha

ABC : Hai ya, dont make fun of my friend la. We are just different, as he told me many times. What we used is called LA + PA.

CDE : What is that??!

EFG : L:et me guess ... luck analysis and punting analysis!

ABC : Bingo. You are smart!!

EFG : Of coz ... only smart lady like me laughing to bank, with my knowledge in buying a stock, ok?

ABC : Ok ook ... lets not talk about my friend la. But, he is really hardworking leh. Wake up 5.30 am and till midnight still writing his blog.

EFG : One word : S-T-U-P-I-D.

CDE : Spelt STUPID!!

CDE and EFG : --- laughing un-controlable ---

ABC : Ok ok ... ladies, can we discuss about our plans and strategies on what to punt next?? That is why we are meeting regularly for, ok?

Waiter : Excuse me, maam. Your latte ...

ABC : Thanks.

EFG : So ... I bought KheeSan, it is at 0.60 now. I remember your stupid friend said not to buy KheeSan at 0.50, right?

CDE : Next time we read his blog ... he said dont buy, we buy. Sure kena jack-pot. A dumb person could only be dumber. Hehe

EFG : Good idea too ... did he say anything not to buy?

CDE : Not at the moment ... hmm ... he bought HuaYang, Sunrise ... SigGas and recently Jaks and LionInd.

ABC : He bought call-warrants too. But that one too risk for me la.

CDE : Call warrants? What is that? A stock too?

ABC : I think so la ... I see CIMB-ci so cheap. But, I do notice that CIMB up, this call-warrant also move up leh.

EFG : Hey hey ... that is cool! May be we should punt into call-warrants too!!

CDE : Yeah ... good idea!! Let us do some homework together now, see what to punt la, ok??

Waiter : Your change, maam.

EFG : Keep the change. It is just a small tips of RM8.

Waiter : ---smiling --- thank you, maam.

3.10 pm : SigGas jumps again ...

LionInd : Moving lower ...

A personal stock analyst

10.45 pm : Recently a reader, NJ willing to TRUST my analysis and willing to pay me XX for an analysis of a stock that he wants to BUY. So, yes ... timing market is a difficult thing.

NJ, thanks for trusting me. Nope, I wont disclose any of your particulars here as it P&C between us. I am professional, ok? But, I m writing here as an initial way to promote my 'skills in analysing' to many those who dont know anything much about stock markets!!

Wait ... it is base on TRUST - I need to trust that you will PAY me that 'small token' for my analysis and you need to trust that I do know a 'little' of knowledge in analysing a stock for you!! But, the responsibilities are fully yours. I could only tell you WHY I bought XYZ at that level, what to do next if it goes lower/higher. I could only tell you when to sell, technically speaking but YOU need to decide if you are selling at that level, fair?

So, I do hope I could trust NJ, being his personal stock analyst!! Haha ... yes, it is challenging as I do NOT know any of my readers(except those knew me personally lar). Come to think of it, I m putting my skills in test - I could put myself in HOT-SOUP again when they lose money. MONEY is a TABOO, remember?

Anyway, you need to write a long 'introduction' of yourself on your risk appetite - dont bother to look for my opinions IF you asking KheeSan bounced from 0.50 to 0.61 now. Can buy or not? That you could ask the taxi drivers the next time you are in a cab as I believe they heard more rumours or news about KheeSan or Jadi than I do.

So, should I charge RM1 for each time visiting my blog? With 1k clicks per day, I could be RICH. No need to work, just write this blog ... excuse me, sir/maam ... err ... effective from Nov 1st, I m collecting a toll of RM1(I promised not to increase the charges for 5 years, ok?) each time you are visiting my blog. Hmm .. that is a good idea. TOLL TOLL ... by the way, did you notice that Litrak stock price moving? Speculating that EPF will be buying Litrak too? Smell fishy ... want me to analyse Litrak in lay-man term to you? Yes, I analyse it so that you and me can understand cukup la. Why go so 'deep' with all those terms and 8 to 10 indicators.

Yippee ... NJ, I m glad that there is a reader trusting my analysis! Hehe. And being paid for working hard is worth it. Now, everyone want 'free lunch', right? THINK again ...

CNX, are you going to employ me as part-time trainer? Train me to be a trainer? Hmm ... interesting ... in My Trading Adventure.


Thursday, October 28, 2010

Stock Watch



Bursa left behind

CEO says SGX-ASX merger, if successful, will also benefit Malaysia

PETALING JAYA: Bursa Malaysia Bhd, the local exchange operator, would need to step up its game plan, or risk falling behind as its rival down south gets aggressive.

“The business of running an exchange is all about the volume game,’’ said a local fund manager, who declined to be named. “A bigger, more diverse bourse would definitely attract more listings and trading volume.’’

Bursa Malaysia had been struggling to attract more foreign investors to buy local stocks, and despite a recent surge in interest had remained a laggard compared to bourses like those in Indonesia and Thailand.

Earlier this year, Bursa Malaysia said plans were in place to allow cross-border stock trading for Asean investors from their home countries, although they were only expected to happen next year at the earliest.

The Asean region is home to a number of top performing bourses this year, but the industry is fragmented because of different country-based regulatory regimes and trading platforms.

The Singapore Exchange’s (SGX) US$8.3bil bid for the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), if it goes through, would be the region’s first cross-border merger of bourses.

The deal, however, had drawn considerable political opposition in Austrialia, highlighting the challenges of consolidating the industry in the region.

Bursa Malaysia chief executive officer Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff said the merger deal, if it happened, would draw greater attention to bourses in the region.

“I’ve mentioned before that any regional efforts by other players that will increase interest of investors to the Asian markets can be looked upon as an opportunity for other exchanges in the region to benefit from,’’ he said in an email yesterday to StarBiz.

“On Bursa’s end, we will continue our efforts to build and promote the strengths of our market, especially in Islamic finance, as well as commodities,’’ he added.

Press reports said the combined entity of SGX and ASX would house the region’s biggest market for real estate investment trusts, exchange traded funds and most derivatives products.

It would create the world’s fifth largest market operator by market value.

“The world exchanges are rapidly changing,’’ SGX’s chief Magnus Bocker said on Oct 25. The acquisition would make us a stronger player, he said.

Bursa Malaysia had witnessed a revival of foreign interest in the past couple of months as waves of liquditity made their way into regional markets.

CIMB Research in a report dated Oct 26 said the net inflow of foreign funds into Malaysia reached US$129mil in September, citing data from fund tracker Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

“This brings year-to-date inflows to US$186mil, beating last year’s total of US$158mil,’’ it said.

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index had risen 17.8% year-to-date, less than half the gains recorded by main indices in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Yusli said yesterday that Bursa was “always open” to exploring potential collaborative initiatives with strategic benefits to grow its business.

Bursa had partnered with the biggest derivatives exchange in the world, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, to grow its derivatives market. It had also in the past worked with other exchanges such as the Korean Exchange and NYSE Euronext on technology collaborations.

Taken from : The Star
Morning ... I am OK. I woke up 5.30am as usual today but didnt write here doesnt mean I m not ok-la. Thanks, CT for your concern. I received an e-mail from a reader just now wondering why no post this morning and wondering if I m OK.

Yes, I went to see doctor last night due to cough and flu. I m in medication, actually.

CIMB : At 8.19, nice ... I m looking to sell my CIMB-ci.

KFC : Nice ... at Rm3.50 now. Really finger licking good.

The 4-As : AirAsia, AnnJoo and Adventa in red but Alam trying to recover fast. I noticed that Sealink and Dialog also moving with Alam ... anyone sailing with vessels?

3.15 pm : I had a 'free' lunch treated by my future students - my young colleagues. I m making sure they understand some fundamentals behind a company and a market before coaching them a SIMPLE investing strategy. It is not free - they have to pay RM100/hr(otherwise, sorry bro .. nothing is free) initially on giving them resources and homeworks to be done. If I m NOT satisfy with my students progress, I might drop them totally. That will be the deal too.

LionInd : Coming down sharply today and RM2.00 done. I am waiting at RM1.95 and RM1.90 now. Welcome back, babe.

AMMB : Broken RM6.00 and continue to surge ahead. Nice.

10.50 pm : Played 185 average only today for 8 games. Too tired. I could used 'I m on medication', or 'I m too tired" etc etc as excuses but I wont. I played badly because I could not focus well.

Taken from my facebook

TEH : Supermax starts to drop from your Rm4.80 level. I dont hv a crystal ball when I asked u to take profits, ok?

SC : "Thanks alot TEH. HWGB gives me another round of kopi lui today. Just becareful when we are riding the bull, unexpected unforeseen circumstances will topple us.. honestly i'm not too optimistic of the General Election - klci may drop drastically. So my advice to myself is to dispose as much shares as i have right now. i'm still holding Mitra and E&O now. They are waiting to be awaken by Prince Charming. Oh yes, i buy Pratasco for long term play to accumulate prompt dividends (9%), its better for me to put in the bank. Pls let me know yr opinions abt my investment. tsk tsk tsk.. i'm just an ordinary auntie playing shares... huh huh huh.. You are so smart lah.. TEH, i really proud of you."

TEH : You are a punter. We are different. I have no comment. Good luck.

SC : investor, trader or punter - all about timing and knowledge. heh heh heh. sometimes i have none and i just depend on a little bit of luck. Cheers my good friend."

TEH : Wish you lots of LUCK again as you are using LA = Luck Analysis.

Dear readers, in a longer term, I m very concern about this good old friend of mine. She is playing with KBunai, HWGB and such ... so, I m worry(not envy of her profits?). What should I do besides telling her I have NO COMMENT on any of her trades?

Can anyone you have been market LOOOONG enough and loooosing money(sorry, as I know MOST of us DO NOT want to expose our losses!!) give her some advices on HOW you have PUNT in-out like her years ago, and then stucked with MANY stocks which de-listed or wont recover? KNM and Saag comes to mind? Anyone bought KNM above RM1 and stucked till today? How about Kenmark? LCL? There are so many stocks which dive till no light at the end of the tunnel.

I dont know what to say ... I am NOT smart, I m trying not to be the losing 80-90% losing in stock-markets. SC, if you are profitting now, good ... we are talking about sustaining your profits in loooong term. Luck today, lucky this year ... errmm ... may not be always lucky.

Sigh ... I have promised myself not to reply to you. I m just sharing here of my concern about your ways of punting. It is not called RISKY, it is called senseless gambling. Since when gamblers win and becoming rich? Once a gambler, you win huge now ... you will give it back, perhaps in double. You may also ask KK(my best friend, you friend too?) why he is working in the bank- trading markets for YEARS years ago, but NEVER want to do anything about stock-market anymore!! The question : Can you last longer enough? Please think about it, and may be you might want to LEARN a bit about FA. This thing first, I need to wash your brain totally clean from GAMBLING spirit!!


Wednesday, October 27, 2010

CWs : TanChong, Bursa and CIMB

CIMB : Breached RM8.05 resistance yesterday, gap-u0p today and testing RM8.18 soon. It might go sideway from here before taking off this resistance for the target of RM8.30. Another surge will see me SELL. When I started to look at it last week, it was oversold. How could CIMB in oversold position? Najib wont be happy with that when UMNO assembly is going on, ok?

CIMB-ci : I highlighted the day I bought into this one at 0.26-0.265, with target at 0.29. Today it closed at 0.270, touched 0.275. Watching CIMB at RM8.32.

Bursa : At RM8.51, could it breaks the resistance of RM8.63? We need another bull-run and Bursa breaching 1,500 level ... so this Bursa also run. It will be called BULL-sa then. Hehe.

Bursa-co : At 0.110(0.115 is planted - so not counted) now, premium 3.4% as Bursa closed at RM8.51. I bought at 0.11, 0.115 and 0.12 at the moment. Taking profits at 0.135 level, technically it is still very nice. Wait.

TanChong : Rebounded from RM5.40 to RM5.70. Sideway now(good!!) and trading at R5.60-RM5.70 range bound. Target RM6.00. Breaking RM6.00 will be new high - possible as market sentiments are still good. Need to wait. Someone asked me if it is too late to enter on Monday - I did not reply as I said - no one could tell.

TanChong-cd : There are currently 5 CWs attached to TanChong and I have picked this one and bought into it on Monday. It closed lower today at 0.185. Strike at 4.55 with ratio 6, giving us RM5.66. With TanChong closed at RM5.68 today, it is in-the-money. Unless there is a huge reversal, no reason for me to clear yet. I have average about 0.175. So, waiting at 0.20. But IF TanChong could move to my target of RM6, this CW will go to 0.25. TanChong came down from RM6, this CW came down from 0.25. Will it rebound?


p/s : NJ, I saw that you said you bought into TChong-cd. I hope you are not buying into it as I said I m into it? Hope not.

Wednesday ... to clear GLBhd for TWSCorp. As for plantation, so many are overbought and waiting for correction. As for steel, watching Kinstel. Perhaps I will change Sunrise to more of HuaYang as technically HuaYang chart is very nice now.

Yesterday, the 3 persons ABC ... CDE ... and EFG ... are friends. Notice that their first/last alphabets intersected. So, they are connected - they are friends. The sister FGH ... well, together with EFG intersected twice - so they are more closely connected. So, FGH is the sister of EFG. Did you get it right? If you didnt notice the conversation well, you might miss many 'finer' points about trading ... and of coz, I m so used to listen to these uncles/aunties talking about stock-market. Hehe.

That is how my brain works ... I see relationtion. Touch once, support, touch twice ... strong support and touch a few times, becoming good support. It is just like our 'friends'. Meet once ... hi-n-bye ... meet the second time, spend longer time together, we know we have comfort. And if we meet regularly sharing our feelings, our views ... we have each other as support. Support is being used in technical analysis as it meant to be just THAT ... to support the stock as a certain level.

2.10 pm : It was a mistake to grab GLBhd only to get a shooting star yesterday. So, I hv to clear for small loss. It will retrace to support, then only to consider if I need to grab it back. LionDiv also retracing too, it is only 'logical' as it is overbought. So, plantation and steel will be taking a rest.

Today, SPSetia-wb exploded. I wrote about the channel seen and waited for it to correct for 3 days but it only go down one day. Then, today ... bye-bye SPSetia-wb. By the way, I wonder if my friend SL cleared her SPSetia-wb which she bought at 0.42? Wow .. that is more than double. Congrats. Can I have my free doughnut please? Hehe

Steel : AnnJoo-wb, Kinstel or Leader? I grabbed Jaks today, instead.

TWSCorp : still at base ... wait for support.

SigGas : At 1.02 ... hmm ... interesting now. Wait.

HuaYang : Added at 0.990 this morning done! Wow.

Cimb : At 8.14 now ... nice. My Cimb-ci is moving well. But still low volume, I m waiting for eruption.

TChong and Bursa taking a rest today.

The four "A"s : Alam, AnnJoo, AirAsia and Adventa are down today. These are the 4-As that I m tracking now. All in different sectors.

5.20 pm : KLCI closed at 1499.11, why not exactly 1500? It breached 1500 again today.

I did not write anything much as I was analysing my mistakes(over-trading) in GLBhd and LionDiv which I finally cut. It is obvious as I did not follow what I have planned, actually. Jumping in-n-out of a stock to another is ridiculously random and the chance we need to cut-losses. So, jumping into Jaks today is??

At the moment, I think I have Jaks at average 0.765, that is reaching its resistance at 0.770. Today, it closed lower, so the RISK of BETTING that it will break the resistance is high. Time to exit with a small loss again. See? Few losses in days due to over-trading.

Next, analysing WHY we have such a tendency? You see, I attended CNX to learn TA as TA will take out the emotion part of trading or that is what it supposed to be.

I like my plans on CIMB, Bursa and TanChong. Any others are quite random. I do like Sunrise at this level now. EAH been there and will be there till it moves up. How about HuaYang which supposed to be a short trades? Should I take small profits on it tmr? These are in mind ...

Again, we are all human - when we profitted hugely, we tend to be over-confident. But, if we could quickly check on these 'flaws' in human, we could still look forward to improve in our next trades. I m in learning process ... so, please DO NOT buy into what I m buying, ok? I m testing out the water, actually ... I might get drown?


Coaching my 'young' colleagues to be investors in market will not be easy as they are science-based people like me, without any knowledge about what is market. All we heard of are those BAD impression on markets - how people go bankrupt being in stock-markets(1987 crash comes to mind) and how many punters 'disappeared' licking there wounds. So, I have to remind myself to THINK RISK before profit.

It is not easy to coach others as firstly, they have to trust you. Then, you too have to trust them ... trust that they will do their own researches on counters that they might want to buy. It is difficult. I could not just point out that the fish ABC is nice ... surely in demand. I will always look for 5 good reasons and satisfying certain criteria. These are for investors, not short term contra-players.

What I have not came out is HOW MUCH should I charge them?Well ... I have BAD EXPERIENCES coaching my first 'student' about stock-market, only to be bitten by him. Yeah ... kacang lupakan kulit case. So, I want to place a charge - RM100 per hour? They will be wondering WHY I should charge so 'high'(excuse me, I m charging my students RM100-120 per hour for teaching Maths) ... RM100 per hour is NOT high. Wait till you lose tonnes of money(certainly 10 folds of the fees) when you move into market with zero-knowledge, zero-experience. You will be eaten alive. Hey, if I win some money, someone have to lose, right?

They are my colleagues, my friend. I do NOT want to have anything to do with their money. It is up to them ... I could only 'coach' these novices what is market and how to profit more than a mere FD/Bonds rate by being INVESTOR in KLSE.

RISK will be my first session with them(3 or 4 of them to share RM100 not expensive, right?) as investors should not be in stock-market without know the RISK. By being an investor with longer time frame, of coz the risk is lowered. By diversifying, we could reduce our risk too. But if the time frame is too long or too diversified, our profits will be small, if any.

Example : I could just give a fish named Maxis, buy below RM5.30(it closed RM5.25 today) and wait till RM5.50 ... how many percent is that? Need to minus the trading fees too, ok? Then say .. dont worry, Maxis wont collapse!! haha.

It is better to coach them HOW to fish, and gradually coach them what to look into the fundamental of the stocks. Place your own realistic criteria and decide it yourself.

Some people prefer calm river, some prefer a lake ... others might be more adventurous and going for a fishing trip in to the sea. We are all different in our risk appetite.

I hope I could be a good coach for my 'first' batch of students. I need to forget about my bad experiences with JL. It is just my bad luck to trust him and met a wolf in sheep-skin.

So, for not being taken for a ride(granted), I will make it clear ... RM100/hr of learn how to be an investor in KLSE and do batter than FD 3-4% rate. Sound easy? Not for me ... it is not. It is MONEY ... we dont talk about. It is TABOO ... like sex. I dont understand why .. never mind.

Time to analyse some stocks and dinner time again.


Tuesday, October 26, 2010

DOW is still flat but A123 at USD10.40 now. As I bought at USD10.50(when it dived) and USD9.80(breakout), at USD10.40, finally it is in green. Let me ask ... You bought at 10.50 ... it dives to 9.50, to 8.50, to 7.50 ... and to 6.50. You watched it diving ... wow ... what will you do? Why do you buy in the first place? So, I have been questioning myself a lot in this trade. So, now ... finally I m LUCKY to get thru it, what should I do? Sell for profits? Hmm ... nope, I will hold till next year, as planned!!

counter : 245, 000. I registered 1k click today. I know why ... but am I getting the wrong audience again?

SC : Thanks for not taking offence. That was just a joke - and a sharing on WHY so many aunties/uncles punting into market and lose money. They know NOTHING much about stock-market. Neither do I. Send my regards to my fans(besides WL and SS, who else ar??) ... and also, READ my disclaimer. Luckily you do not buy into what I m buying. phew!

Stock Watch

A123 : Breaking through USD9..75 level for me to grab more at USD9.80. Mind you, 9.80 is the magnitude of gravity acceleration that I used in my teaching when I teach 'Mechanics" in Further Mathematics. So, USD9.80 level is a buy. I have been holding this one for months now. This is still a buy-n-hold stocks for me, speculating on the green-cars which might be a hype-news next year. Could I be wrong? What if I m right? Analysts average target price is at USD13-14 level. So, I will be glad to sell at USD13 for 35% profits? No one could tell at this point of time - technically, it broke-out the ascending triangle!! At USD10 now.

CIMB : Nice volume seen today, and CIMB will be used to support KLCI, besides plantation-stocks.

Bursa : After a huge surge yesterday to resistance RM8.60, it is down today. It might be down for another few days before it tries to test RM8.60 level again. Once breaks RM8.60, we will see new high ... or is it? It will take some time for the ascending triangle to form. Do refer to AMMB.

AMMB : Breached RM6 today, and RM6 becoming the support. BUY near RM6.. This is for investor who know what FA + TA is.

p/s : I m looking into AMMB but I have CIMB and Bursa as financial stocks, so I dont think so I want to use my limited bullets for her.

TWSCorp : Signs of rebounding soon ... will like to change my overbought GLBhd and SigGas into this one.

5.30 am : DOW up by only 30 points, paring off some gains from 100 points initially. We are still having a bullish sentiments but in selected sectors - plantation and steel. Property-stocks are still on the move, so I will still hold on to Sunrise to rise. With SigGas clearing off soon, I m looking for next to shoot the sky - which one?

Steel Stocks

LionDiv : I joined William's party yesterday thru LionDiv. Yes, it came up from 0.50 level to current 0.56 level. I grabbed at 0.555-0.565. It is overbought and correction will be here soon.

Kinstel : Broken RM1 level yesterday as expected. RM1 is my level to watch, Closed at 1.02, I will start the queue at 1.01. Again, it is overbought. Most of the steel-stocks have moved significantly. AnnJoo and LionInd are huge gainers.

Leader : Broken 0.89 level to form a double-bottom yesterday. This is a more quiet party which more to my taste. Can consider.

PressM : Continue to impress but too late.

Plantation stocks

Golden Land : RSI at 68, no chasing ... so, I will wait for it to correct to near support before start to ride on it.

HSPlant : Mommy HapSeng is shooting so high now, and HSPlant going back to RM2.80, its IPO value. When I started to look into stock almost 3 years ago, HSPlant was listed as IPO. I was in Sabah, so I should know.

There are these two sector which is lagging behind - rubber-sector and tech-sector.

Rubber stocks

TopGlove : I told my aunties that I will grab a lot(1000 units) for them at RM5.50 and keep for a year. And if glove-sector bottom-out, I will change their BJToto(just got 8 cents dividend again) into TopGlove. I need their approvals as money is theirs. Yes, moving forward .. for investors, glove-sectors are still worth watching. I m NOT asking anyone to buy TopGlove, did I? RSI

Supermax : Oversold and still waiting for correction. Volumes are thinner now, divergence. So, it will likely to correct soon. Wait.

Latexx : Has moved significantly too.

Adventa is what I want - a laggard(RSI 46) and smaller player. I am watching the retracement, the lower high showing its failure to rebound, and RM2.40 and RM2.35 levels will be a good entry level.

What is hot and what is not

The big-caps have pulled KLCI up significantly for the past weeks and it is for the smaller caps to shoot now. The theme is plantation at the moment when crude palm oil(CPO) breached RM3,000. That is a big number!! Nothing gonna stop us now?

Hot : Plantation and steel

Not : Tech and Rubber.

I will like to look into rubber-stock(tech stock like JCY still very much in radar) as it will pay to be a contrarian. I just do not have enough bullets to shoot on them, so I m getting some funds from my 'boss', my aunties. Currently they are quite please with 12% gains from their capitals. Actually, I know I could do better than 12% for them(it has been 10 months now - 12% in 10 months?) but being conservative for them I only bought BJToto and MAS for them. I m going to change BJToto to Topglove. Or Supermax?

MLTR - nice songs.

Why we should not TELL anyone what to buy, what not to buy, what to sell and what not to sell.

Example : KheeSan at 0.585 now.

ABC : Arrghh ... that stupid TEH-la, I want to buy KheeSan to position for its strong rebound, he said KheeSan is not worth looking into and asked me to buy Supermax. Luckily the Supermax gained me 20% in 2 weeks, otherwise I will kill him the next time I see him. I KNOW KheeSan will shoot up one. Even my friend, Ms KLM given me the tips.

CDE : Why do you listen to him?

EFG : Ya-lor ... who is he arr?

ABC : Hai ya ... looong story la. He was my ex-classmate. Recently I found a blog and was surprised it was him. Anyway, he seems to know a lot about stock-market hor.

CDE : Really?? Can get tips ar? You bought SUpermax because he asked u?

ABC : Hai yah ... I talked also kek-sim la, I bought Supermax at RM5 hor, then I get stucked.

EFG : Hai-yo ... ya lor, I also get stuck with my ...

ABC : Yo, you let me finish first la.

EFG : ok ok ... hehe

CDE : So ... so ... Supermax went to RM4.50,I think

ABC : No la ... went to RM4.

EFG : Wah liao eh ... RM5 to Rm4, die la ... no wonder kek-sim! If I were you hor ...

ABC : EFG, you let me finish first can or not?

EFG : ----quiet ---

ABC : Ok, where am I? See see ... I forgot liao, disturbing only la(looking at EFG)

CDE : Supermax.

ABC : Oh yes, then I said I want to buy KheeSan at 0.50 level lor. Suddenly my friend, TEH, wrote a looong post about why I should buy Supermax at RM4 and not KheeSan.

EFG : But, Supermax go down from RM5 to RM4? How to buy? stupid meh?

ABC : No leh, Supermax came down from Rm6.50 leh. I thought cheap already ma. Some more, I called my old friend who is working there now ma. She said 'can buy can buy'. So, I buy lor. Mana tau ... no luck ma.

CDE : Ya la ... all depends on luck la

EFG : ---nodding ---

CDE : So, you trust him and buy SUpermax at RM4??

ABC : Yup, but hor ... when I bought at RM4, it still go down leh. He asked me to grab more at RM3.50 and RM3.00 ...

EFG : Siao meh ... you sure he know about stock market or not? So, stupid la. How long he is in stock market?!

ABC : His blog hor, got a lot of charts one ... err ... also a lot of TA-la, FA-la ... whatever-A, I also dont know what is that

EFG : Hai yah, those people hor like to show-off only la. They always talk-talk only. I also know ma. Got earn money only consider good ma.

ABC : That one I dont know la ... so, I see my Supermax going down to RM4, I thought die la this time. I want to buy KheeSan, now I m stucked with Supermax. One asked me to buy at RM5, I buy-la. Another asking me to buy more at RM4, I buy. SO how now? Should I sell ar? Cut loss very painful leh.

EFG : Got choice meh, I still got 6 stocks I dont know what to do also like MaxBiz, err ...

ABC : He asked me to buy and wait ... then, I saw him saying he bought Supermax at RM3.75. That was the tip of the bottom leh.

EFG : Sure or not ... he dont scare to die meh. How u know he really buy at RM3.75?

ABC : He wrote in his blog ma.

EFG : Haha ... you believe in blogs? He can write anything he wants la.

CDE ; Ya lor, ya lor ... (nodding)

ABC : Anyway, you should see how Supermax shooting up the next days ... wow ... went to RM4.20!!

CDE :How come you didnt call us and we buy also la?

ABC : I thought moments ago u said he is stupid?

CDE : Hehe ...

ABC : He sold at RM4.20 for profits but I m still in the loss, so cant sell lor. Last week Supermax at RM4.80, he said can take profits liao. I sell lor ...

CDE : What??! From Rm3.80 to RM4.80 now, he asked you to sell? I do think he is stupid la. What if it goes to RM5.80 today? And somemore, he sold at RM4.20 and it is at RM4.80 now? Haha ... what a joke. I think he is banging his head on the wall now la.

EFG : Ya hor ... you kill him la. Haha

ABC : Dont say like that la. He is still my friend, ok? Dont know la .. I still got a few coma-stocks stucked inside dont know what to do. Hey, I bought HWGB yesterday hor ... wow ... up almost 10% in one day leh.

EFG : Me hor ... I buy XXX at 0.140 ... it is up to 0.16 now, I will keep will it goes to 0.25. By X'mas hor, I could buy that XYZ handbag I loooonged to have leh ...

CDE : Sell your XXX at 0.28 la, double the money ma. And 28 28 ... a good number ma. Yee-Fatt = easy to prosper.

Laughters heard from a distance as the three ladies continue their stock-chat.

As the conversation continues ...

FGH : Hey sis(of guess who?), so you all are here? Still talking bout stock market, I guess.

ABC : Hi FGH, ya ... stock market so hot now, we all laughing to the banks.

CDE : Hi FGH ... long time you never join us? How is your Genting doing?

FGH : Oh ... I bought at RM4.50 after it reversed from RM4, and hold till today. I m glad with its performance.

EFG : Hai ya ... I cant never understand you la. We are having party with KBunai, HWGB ... you still stick to your Genting? How many months liao?

FGH : Hmm ... since April 2009?

CDE : Wah liao eh ... I beh-tahan you la. If you buy KBunai at 0.06 hor, you fatt-tat(rich) already la. Dont know how u think la.

FGH : ---smile --- What is KBunai? Anyway, I have to go. I have just bought into KLK 2 months ago as the CPO is rebounding strongly now. You all should look into GOLD too. Bye and enjoy your stock-chat, ok?

CDE : ---shaking her head --- bye la, dont know how to say u la.

Footnote : My friend actually THANKed me many times for spending time to analyse KheeSan vs Supermax for her, and she said she enjoys reading my blog! Haha. The above was created from the thin air in 10 minutes while having my morning coffee at home.

--------------the end ----------

9.50 am : Grabbed GLBhd as planned at 0.97-0.99. Grabbed more at 1.00-1.01 as it breached RM1. Will wait for closing to decide. This is for short trade as RSI is very high now. Riding on it ...
3.20 pm : Kencana still moving - grabbed Kencana-cc.

TWSCorp : Moving above 0.90 today.

7.15 pm : KLCI at 1497, and will be testing 1500 again. Watching tonight DOW up another 100 points?

My portfolios and their health conditions

GLBhd closed with a shooting star - time to run.

LionDiv will retrace too ... but this is to collect while looking into Kinstel.

CIMB showing good chart - increase in volume. I m collecting her thru Cimb-ci.

Bursa is taking a rest today, will like to see it breaking the ascending triangle at RM8.60.

Kencana still showing good strong uptrend - collected Kencana-cc at 0.245 and 0.250.

TanChong at RM5.70, still waiting for RM6 for my profit target.

HuaYang is still OK, to collect more once bullish crossover seen. Many green histrograms seen, waiting for the surge ... I might add my positions if it could break RM1.03.

Sunrise is not rising ... sideway, holding at support RM2.19. I might clear her soon to release my bullets

LingBao moved up another 6% today ... Sold it off last week good profits and grabbed it back today. There is crazy buying into gold-mining stocks now.

ZhongWang : Back to the support level or HKD4.90, my purchase price. Hold.

A123 : Bought at USD10.50 months ago(when it dived from USD18 to USD10), and average down recently at USD9.80. Now, it touched a low of USD6.30 - yes, do calculate how many percents gain from USD6.30 to current USD10.30?? I did not catch it at USD6.30 ... but waited for months for it to bottom out ... and break strong resistance at USD9.75 level. This is called resistance breakout. This is for longer term play.


Monday, October 25, 2010

Stock Watch

AFG : Another looking for a breakout. I saw this one in CN's forum, someone post it but I analyse it quite differently. I was looking into financial stocks during weekend and interested with her baby. 2nd green seen today, bullish-crossover seen. Uptrend and testing strong resistance to break FREE ... new high. Watching to catch it tmr, if breakout.

GLBhd : Plantation sector in play for past weeks, and today many 'smaller' players are surging ahead. Double-bottom seen and it breaks 0.90 resistance today. Up almost 9%, too fast to chase. I cleared WTK, HiapTeck and cleared some Sunrise today for this one(and many more in plantation). Count me in the party ... lets have oily one. Dont stop the music yet!

SEG-wa : A beautiful hammer formed as I was watching it this morning, touching RM1.01. What a beauty.

10.05 pm : DOW up 100 points and at 11234.56


Bursa : Up 38 cents today, closed at RM8.62, touched RM8.66. It needs another day of confirmation to break RM8.63 convincingly tmr ... and yes, my Bursa-co will benefit much. I was stalking her since morning as that is planned. I wrote about it last night before I sleep, actually. Today is execution day. 0.115 and 0.120 done so far. I think I started to believe in FOCUS.

12.20 am : Liverpool won, finally. Phew. Torres scored too. Phew. Turning point? Bottom-out? They were 2nd from the bottom. It is rarely that I need to scan all the way down to check on Liverpool's status.

Counter showing 248, 000. So, it is about 500 clicks for one Sunday. Too bad as I m too tired to post what stocks I was checking last night ... today, I m busy spending time with my family. :)

I will be watching financial stocks and stalking Bursa later ... I need to sleep. Night

6.45 am : Preparing for Monday market opening and this week trades. I m glad I m more focus now, using my little knowledge of trading to set-up my plans for this week. Market is dynamic, so we need to be aware and flexible. If a stock reaching our cut-loss point, we have to do just that.

Banking stocks in mind - Affin, Bursa, Cimb, Maybank and PBBank.

Answers to SC(the relevent one)

Question : Since najib did mention abt property and construction, will this sector really move?

TEH : SC, property and construction HAVE MOVED. It moved about 1-2 months ago. We do have property and construction INDICES to check. I know you do not even know such indices. I m TELLING you that I do track indices BEFORE looking into any stock in the sector. So, market moves BEFORE the news is out in public media. By the time you listen to Najib's budget day, you are 2 months late! Do you think you could still catch any worms being a late-comers?

Do you even use a chart? Do learn this simple point. You may get free charts from star-biz online or many more websites(links on my site). Do look into Gamuda, MRCB, UEMLand and such ... it MOVED. Currently, since the news are OUT, it is time to sell for profits to those IGNORANT people out there who listened to the budget and think ... I see ... I can buy construction stocks now!! Too late, maam.

Property stocks have moved too ... look into SPSetia, the leader. If you dont even know SPSetia is our property leader, LEARN. I m getting upset speaking to you as you seem to know nothing much, or are you pretending just to test me?

SPSetia is above RM5 now. Sunway and IJMland are moving much higher. Even a laggard YNHProp is moving. E&O? I dont know ... it is back to its support at 1.11 level, I think.

What is moving for past two weeks? Building materials - steel in particular. AnnJoo is back above RM3 and LionInd is at RM2, my watch level for steel. Kinstel will follow to go above RM1. These are my watch-level to know which sector is moving and I do know WHY it moves. So, we BUY into a stock BEFORE the hype of the media and anticipating the sector to be upgraded and eventually moves.

I have written MANY of times how the 'sheeps' following the crowds slaughtered. If you dont know anything much, the BEST advice should be - get out of market now and learn at least ONE strategy, stick to it until you learn the next! Buying HWGB or KBunai, KheeSan, Tiger ... and such will NOT make you rich. You might get lucky once a while ... get greedier and sucked in. Then you get stucked and once the market reverses, you dont know what to do with your 'punts'. Cut-loss at 10% is kek-sim to you. By the time you realised, you are 30%-50% down in your 'coma' stocks. If you are unlucky, they might go into PN17 category and ... buried them.

Do you know how many 'lost' their money THAT way? They are sheeps, to me. Yup, we are born in the year of sheep but I want to sail away with my ship, instead of following the sheeps.

I can continue to write pages about these IGNORANT sheeps as I was one of them in 2008 when I started to be in market. What is the difference between me and many sheeps? I continue to LEARN. Many do not think so they have anything to learn. Afterall, buying a stock like KBunai at 0.10 level, sell at 0.25 level is certainly better than those many stupid investors buying GenM or Tenaga, right?

Reply from SC moments ago

Wow.... u are extremely rite abt the property and construction... It certainly moves alot... True... I have been holding on my UEMland for a while and i'm not letting go as to see how far it can reach. As for HWBG , i just went in this morning for 26cents. The rest of coma shares includes of LCTH, Iris, Mitra and E&O - put in my drawer and kiss them every morning... Thanks for sharing ... Keep up your good writing to me, okay... I enjoyed every minute of it!

Comment from TEH : No comment is the best comment. Period.

9.20 am : KLCI up 4 points. Queueing for Bursa. Grabbed LionDiv @ 0.555.

SigGas and EAH continue to move up but HuaYang is at 1.01.

LionDiv : I m queueing at 0.55-0.55 now. It is at 0.565 now. SO, wait for it to come lower later or else wait for 4.30 pm.

YJ : SigGas is moving, breaking resistance ... to new high. Watch at RM1.00 psychological level. I will let it run up and collect more at RM1.00 when it comes back.

A week or two ago, I went to CN's meeting at The Star, and pointed out about JCY is a risk to buy. It is still at that level now. Then, I gave the audience(many uncles/aunties ... should be LOSING money, otherwise why would they paid THOUSANDS to learn TA and going for CN's meeting for TIPS?) a little tips - BUY broker-houses stocks ... such as OSK, TA, ECM, Hwang ... I dont know!! When I mentioned that, it is with a view that these OLD people there understand a little that TA is NOT for everyone - it used up my brain-cells. Do they have the mental capabilities? I do know most of them are LOSERS(in market, I mean) there, who were HOPING that CN's trainer could give them some tips or at least some veterans in CN's forum could ENLIGHTEN their ... road to financial freedom(at age of 50-60?? Kidding me?). Hey, PMCap and today Insas joined the party!!


11.10 am : I m 'lucky' again that Bursa is moving, grabbed Bursa-co at 0.115, 0.110 not done. Wait.

TChong-cd : You want it ... it is at 0.180, down 7% now. How now? SELL to take small profit, hold on and hope it rebound OR buy more anticipating it will shoot up with TChong flying to RM6? Deal or not?

11.25 am : SigGas breaking RM1.00 today. Hmm ... I must be lucky to get a strike again. Thanks. But EAH in red, HuaYang not moving ... Sunrise is not rising? How?? Cut it off and buy HWGB - Genting's brother? Haha. I m going insane soon. Perhaps I m hungry, then early lunch now. off.

It will be a lengthy story ... how I moved to a city called TWSCorp at 0.88, stole some treasures there ... ran away to a steel palace called Kinstel, took my rest there while looking back if any soldiers from TWSCorp kingdom catching up - took a nap ... and stole some iron-bars from Kinsteel before going to SigGas, an open hot-spot with gases evaporating from the ground. I need to run soon as today the gas explodes!

Everybody wants to rule the world by Tears for Fears. This is one of my fav song back then. VERY appropriate ... as everybody wants to rule the world or are they?

2.15 pm : I was talking to a young finance lecturer about foreign investors in Malaysia market(Bursa). And I used SPSetia as the example.

SiGas : Taking profits at 1.04 those I bought at 0.92-0.93 level last week. Still holding to those bought at 0.94-0.96 level.

4.20 pm : Wow ... SigGas done at 1.04, at 1.05 now. I will still hold the other half, while now RM1 becoming my next target of buying back. It broke out of my ascending triangle today. It is new high now. Do look into last week. YJ, I m glad you bought at 0.93, a nice more than 10% profit in one week. But, please DO NOT buy what I m buying-la, ok? Can I have my teh-tarik, on you?

GLBhd : Broken resistance of 0.88 to form a double-bottom. I will post the chart tonight. It was alerted by one of my reader(thanks).

4.55 pm : KLCI is flat and today SigGas shot up, closing at 1.11. Wow ... now, we should see if profit taking will be here in 2-3 days as many day-traders or contra players are around. I will SELL ALL tmr if it shoots to RM1.20, ok? Good trade. :)

5.45 pm : I m rewarding myself with a teh-tarik since NO ONE call me up to treat me one. It is normal trading day for me tho SigGas flying off and I pocketted huge profits today. You see, when I decided to take profit at 1.04, 1.05 is a huge resistance as huge SELL volume seen. The RSI shooting above 70 today, I think. So, taking half profits at RM1.04 is good. You dont see me saying hai-ya ... I should wait and sell at 1.11, right? It is STUPID as I still have so many trades with different strategies to handle tonight! What is done is done and you cant undo it. What is next should be ... at what level should I sell ALL my holdings and at what level should I buy-back? That I will watch and stalk ...

I m surprised that SigGas is becoming a talk in CN's forum today. Hmm ... everyone love winners(which I cant understand why!) ... I prefer to speak about my 'failures' as I learned more from that 'pain of losing' than 'pain of not gaining'. Example, I want to write about Tenaga which I hv to cut-loss on my Tenaga-cp last week. WHY lost? What is going on in Tenaga? How do we interpret its chart now and will it jump up as I m anticipating? Why? Why not? That is in my mind - Tenaga - not SigGas. Once it is becoming a talk of many in forums, it is time to SELL to them. You want it, ok ... you may have it. I have others I m still looking and stalking. Take care of it and let it grow to RM1.30, ok? Hey, how do we know if Supermax could go to RM7.50 by ... say, Feb 2011? Sorry, I dont know such skills. Where can I get a crystal ball? WoFS?


Sunday, October 24, 2010

Learning Corner

How do I use RSI

If you are my 'old' readers, you will notice that I do use RSI the most(instead of MACD or Stochastic - I seldom mention about ADX or CCI, of coz). And many TA-kaki have pointed out that RSI should not be used alone by itself. Agreed.

Now, I do use RSI to see if a stock is at a high or low. That is only my first indicator telling me if a stock is reaching an overbought region. Then, by knowing that ... I could alert my friends that it is time to consider taking profit of reduce the positions. Or if they want to buy into a stock, WAIT. That is basically my first criteria in buying/selling. Reversely, we can consider to buy when it is at oversold positions.

TEH : You could buy me my D&C if you want more details on my "RSI" strategies, ok? hehe

Example : I m going to use IGB as an example as one of my friend bought into it at around RM1.80 loooong time ago. I think he is a buy-n-hold type. If a person buy-n-hold in such a volatile market, we might not gain as much as we wish tho market reaching a new high at 1,500 now. Is our portfolio gaining 30% or so too?

IGB : Trading at RM2.00 again(I will hear someone trying to correct me, it is at RM1.99 la - if you have such a MENTALITY, believe me, you are deem arrogant and stupid to me - get lost and get real).

I drew a horizontal line of RM2 - there are FOUR times it is at RM2, testing this level. We called it resistance(those arrogant FA-kaki who criticised TA, please get lost too. If you are pure FA, you do not need to read blogs or even trading books - investing is an easier work once foundation placed, ok?). Then, each time when it is at RM2, it will go to overbought region, indicated by RSI(I m using the usual 14 days here as it is NOT for short-term trading).

Imagine a person bought at RM2 on AUG 2009(first red), it is back to the square in OCT 2010. Wow ... that is ONE YEAR plus without a profit while KLCI continue to surge, property index continue to surge too!!

So, as seen in the chart(yes, only for those know what TA is - excuse me, I do know the FA of IGB, ok?), it went down to RM1.70 level twice(oct 2009 and feb 2010) and into oversold region. RM1.70 becoming our support level. WHEN should you buy into IGB? Yes, at RM1.70 when it is oversold. Dont ask me if IGB could go back to RM1.70 or lower, ok? IGB dived to RM1.50 level on 26th MAY 2010 this year. IF I m holding to IGB at RM2, I will wallop HUGELY on 26th May(assuming I do track ONLY IGB and my eggs in this basket). Why I will not buy at RM1.50 when I paid RM2 months ago?? Hey, it is a big discount? WHEN do you buy again?? When it DIVED. If you know how to see that candle-stick, before market closing ... gosh, BUY BUY BUY is yelling.

So ... it is back to RM2, its resistance with RSI showing overbought. To me, it is time for me to sell while waiting for retracement. But, if I have bought it at RM2, then I have no choice ... but to wait either (1) for it to go back to RM1.70 support level to BUY more - with a condition that KLCI is still in uptrend (2) buy more when it breaks RM2 convincingly.

So, I spent my 1hour Sunday morning typing these line for LEARNING purposes.

I have written about TanChong last week when it is oversold and I was preparing to move in. I did on Friday. Today, IGB is just the reverse ... it is at overbought, ok?

Treat me dinner, I might give you some idea, ok? What you want 'free lunch'? Then, continue to read this entertaining blog. Haha

This page is for novices and investors, actually. It is not a call to buy/sell IGB or TanChong, ok?

Message from my friend, SC

hi, u are an expert now with all yr AAA, wow i know nuts about this.. I took yr advice and left the tiger in the cage, just wana ask u abt E&O, i bought it rm1.17 and now she is having sakit perut, diarea the whole week. Since najib did mention abt property and construction, will this sector really move? i also bought coma counter like lcth at 27cents and its comatize for weeks now. Went in kbunai took profits and lari leow. Now tomorrow morning wat shd i punt ? Still thinking if i can go and grab HWBG for 25cents? Just hopeful! wat do u recommend? I missed Tanchong !

Reply to the message

Sorry, if you are offended. I DO NOT know much about FA or TA yet - I am only in market for less than 3 years, so I do not have EA to show. BUT, I do know I m LEARNING in order to be the minority 10% who is gaining from markets in the LONG run. I dont know how u view markets, but to me it is a place I want to be here for a loooong time. So, I will use another 3-5 years to LEARN. WHat you used is called PUNTING(TIKAM in malay) meaning you THOUGHT you have 50-50 chances but in longer run, believe me ... market is merciless to majority of punters. You MIGHT be lucky this year or next, wish you lots of LUCK. You do need it, honestly.

When a person bought at stock at a certain level, a WISE knowledgable minority 10% who is profitting are those who have as SYSTEM. So, if you are to continue YOUR ways of punting or gambling, please spare me YOUR heart-ache. You must be joking if you dont know what KheeSan is or Tiger is doing ... I thought of sending you the negative FA of Tiger to you until I QUICKLY realised that you are gambling, what is there to talk about FA? FA and/or TA are for those stupid people like me who spent THOUSANDS of dollars buying investment/trading books and attending talks or paid THOUSANDS to learn TA now. You(and many more punters) making me FEEL stupid ... I used averagely 6 hours per day reading biz-papers, economics 101, reading annual reports, learning tonnes of financial terms, recognising trends etc etc ... and now I m leading MACD, Candle-sticks, Money management ... nd using more hours daily writing this stupid blog to benefit those who wish to LEARN. I m stupid, as my wife pointed out. She asked " why should you be so concerned if she is going to buy KheeSan or Tiger"? Imagine if Tiger jump up 30-50% tmr, will I be blamed/cursed? Stupid fella stopping me from buying Tiger that day? See ... it is up 40% today. Know what I mean? Understand how I m concern ...? IF you are not my friend, I wont even bother to reply!! Ask my readers ... many messages 'unreplied'.

So, I will maintain my NO COMMENT view on your E&O. At least E&O is a cyclical stock I could use to trade. HWGB, KBunai and such ... God bless you.

I will want to make it CLEAR here OPENLY to you ... DO NOT tell me what you are buying as I m concern about you. Just keep it to yourself and I will PRETEND that you are good in your insiders news or think positively that you are gaining much from markets. I will promis myself NOT to reply to ANY of your questions anymore. We are VERY different ... I m stupid, I learn FA well, and currently applying some basci TA ... I m stupid as I m STILL using 4-6 hours PER DAY looking into opportunities. I m stupid to share it OPENLY to so many here. Excuse me, please.

No, you are NOT a trader as you initially told me. You are a PUNTER, thousands of those in markets doing daily. So, we are different ... sorry, I cant help you anymore.

But ... one day, IF you wish to learn ... you may join my classes(with a fees) for novices what to look for in FA and how to use TA to enhance our CHANCES in our TRADES. Even if you need to PUNT, you need a system. I spent HOURS of reading before that ... lost thousands when I first trading CWs 2 yrs ago(read my 1-2 years posts on CWs) ... and learning and learning till I m much more confident to TRADE call-warrants.

Sorry again if I offended you with my 'harsh' reply. You still only owe me my D&C for the Supermax trade(RM4 to RM4.80). That is called TRADE, my friend. Buy when RSI is ridiculously low, candlestick showing rebounding in play ... sell when it is overbought and candlesticks showing reversal. sigh ... why am I explaining for?

By the way, do you really THINK I was lucky with my JCY when I caught at 0.90 level and to sell for 15% profits in days? Do you really THINK I prayed hard enough to catch SUpermax at RM3.75 only to sell it days later at RM4.20? I was lucky to catch at almost the bottom, that is YES. But when I bought into it, I PLANNED for days of stalking and such. Watch ... do you think I m PURELY lucky to buy into TanChong on Friday morning and it rebounds? THINK again ... I get averagely 4-6 strikes per game in 10 throws because I DONE many 'small' things before I even bowl .. what I played is called bowling, not throwing!! Now THINK ... do you know how I catch TanChong-cd? Do you think anyone without LEARNING in their mind will EVER manage to do that? When I get a strike, I do know how it strike, not merely pure LUCK. I dont think so you want to challenge me in throwing ... ooooppsss ... I mean bowling.

Never mind. We all have our own mind and attitudes when in market. Good Luck.

TEH : There are few categories of readers - some read my blog(only WHAT TO BUY part) only to know what to PUNT next while on the other side, those NOVICES who think they have points to LEARN from my blog. I only WELCOME those wish to learn and share. Those punters, BUY at your own risk. Please GET LOST as you are making me feel stupid-la. Sigh.