Friday, September 03, 2010

DOW up 50 points - A123 up, at USD7.32. WDC up 1.6% and STX up 2.4%.

Newly listed IPOs : Yes, I m going for those newly listed and retracing from their peaks. JCY, SigGas, EAH, A123 ... and now looking at ZhongWang. I even look into ABC(trading in HKSE - hey, it is really called ABC, ok?) but note that I wont get involve with BJRetail(I dont go to 7-11 as things there are expensive, only to buy newspaper and bread).

JCY : I m only left wih 18k units of it, actually after yesterday's selling spree. I m selling more today - queueing at 1.11 now. We shall see ... it is due to open higher? Queues going lower now ... selling in place as expected?

9.05 am : JCY cleared some at 1.11 ... going to sell more at 1.15 next and 1.20 next. I think I will clear ALL if it shoots to 1.30 TODAY. I do not like very sharp rebound tho I like sharp dives. I am clearing those I bought at RM1-1.05 now ... for another 8-10% profits, as planned. Once it shoots up to 1.20 level again, I will start to clear those portions bought in 1.15 levels. At 1.35 level, I will sell(without TA used here, ok? Just my stupid un-common sense) ALL my portions bought at 1.20 levels. I have small portions to clear as the prices increase as I bought heavier when prices lower. I DO NOT expect it to jump so high, so fast, ok? I M JUST LUCKY.

Emotions : Please understand that I m an emotional kinda person but I put emotions ASIDE when trading. I DO NOT get sad or angry or anguish when I cut off JCY which I bought at 1.35 for Rm1k+ loss. I do not bang my heads to the wall when I started to buy it again at 1.20 and 1.15 levels. I do not get happy when I managed to take small profits at 1.22 levels before it HUGE dives ... I m waiting for my 1.10 level to buy, which I did. I waited for 1.00-1.05 levels to buy more, which I did. then buy again at 0.95 ... till 0.88-0.90 as planned. IF it still sharply go down to 0.77, I believe I m a VERY strong buyer of JCY and admitting catching a knife. But I was ... emotionless? I remember I wrote about my no-emotion state after my badminton game(Wed night) after I bought in at 0.88-0.90 when many started to worry for me(thanks for your concerns. I really appreciate that). It is simply TOO FAST ... I was preparing to clear in 3-6 months time and even planned for more bullets at 0.66(cleared MAS,Gamuda and TopGlove .. cleared my portions of BJToto too, if u didnt realise that my portfolios are more concentrated and focused into few now).

I will not regret and say ' hai yah, if I know it will break Rm1 ar, I wont sell yesterday morning la". Better still, if I know it will go up to 1.10 levels now, I will HOLD into my very huge positions and profit thousands in few weeks!! Wow ... if I know? To me, there is so such thing as SURE or CERTAINTY. To me it is STUPID to say "if I know" and to me ... many people pissed me off by saying 'IF I know" or asking "do you think JCY can buy now arr?". That shows emotion in trading which I have tried to avoid. It is easier said than done.

I have sold some at 1.11, queueing to clear at 1.15 and 1.18 now. I can tell you that I wont be HAPPY when all done or SAD if it retrace back to RM1.00! No need to congrats me as JCY jumps up as I m emotionless ... I see it as just a trade to learn more about such a trade IN ORDER to benefit more IN FUTURE when such situation occurs again and it WILL(may not be JCY, of coz).

Yes, I want to point is out AGAIN and AGAIN ... I m a novice, I m experimenting with my systems and using certain stocks for different trade reasons. Buying Efficient at 0.180 days ago certainly not the same as buying SigGas yesterday!! I m emotionless ... ok? It is just a system I m trying out, nothing to do if I m stupid when I lost a trade or intelligent when I profitted.

JCY : Cleared at 1.15, waiting at 1.18 ... it is at 1.17 now. Hold on.

SigGas : Bought at 0.78 ... queueing to clear 0.84 now. It touched 0.83 so far. Excuse me, that is RM500+ in a day trade? What a punt.

Hai-O : Bargain buyers in today after managed to rebound from Rm3 yesterday.

10.10 am : KLCI down 7 points. AirAsia at 1.80 level.

10.50 am : SigGas is moving lower ... I will clear it anyway as it was supposed to be a short punt for a dinner, ok? KLCI down 8 points now.

Learning Corner : Pointers in mind

Be Independent : At times, I m influenced by some words from other blogs or CN's forum or some nice souls trying to give me advices. I should take it with a pinch of salt, so as they say. I should have my independent thinking!! I recalled how I lost RM1+ on BP trade as instead of buying at USD30(bought earlier at USD37), I sold it off. My initial plans were to BUY at USD37, in the height of FEAR ... and again at USD30 and USD25. I aborted my plans ... due to MANY fearing words from readers and such. Some even claim BP could NEVER recover ... hmm ... BP did went all the way down to USD27 and rebounded strongly to USD40. That is my selling point, actually. A FAILED trade and a loss registered as I was NOT independent enough.

Acceptance : If you are in markets, then you need to ACCEPT that there are only 3 ways your stock price could go next - either UP, sideway or DOWN. Yes, you will say ... "stupid fella, you think I dont know meh". That is your arrogance in play. Keep that in check. Now, it seems to be ALWAYS against you - you buy, it go down but if you sell, it moves up!! It happened SO SO often to me that I m so immuned to it!! SO, do accept that as part of market trading. The main point is to ACCEPT such a situation so that it wont affect your emotions for your next trades!!

Probabilities : Think in chances. FA or TA or RA ... use it to increase our chances(probabilities) in our trades or investments. Define your time frame well ... by taking a longer time period, we are 'reducing' our risks. Think in probability ... in chart-nexus discussion, make trends your friends. Yes, I agreed with that as it increases your probabilities of profits in SHORT time frame!! But, once you enlonged(planned before it and NOT get stuck with it and becoming looong term investor, UN-intentionally) our time frame, then the trends might change by then. So, whether we are buy-high-sell-high(short term) or buy-low-sell-high(longer term), we should do what it takes to INCREASE our probabilities in our trade. Logical? Mind you, most do not use logic in markets!! Wonder why ... errm ... this is the area of 'financial behavioural' aspect which I m very inetrested to read more. Remember ... no such thing as SURE go up or SURE go down one la. These are not concrete as we need to probe more into such statements.

Let us take EAH as an example : Recently, I wrote a simple 'case study' on it ON THE MOMENT it was shooting higher and higher as I LUCKILY sold it at 0.550, only to buyback at 0.53-0.50. Today I m 'stucked' with it at it is at 0.465 vs 0.470 now. I m queueing at 0.450 since then. IF you have positions bought at 0.49 and it jumped to 0.55 in one week time, will you HOLD(expecting it go higher) or will you sell(profit taking, to buyback at lower)? I chosen the latter, obviously. WHAT IF it shot up all the way to 0.60 or 0.65 next days?? So, I sold only HALF of it ... and never look-back in regrets!! Today, should I be relieved that I chosen SELL? IF it shoots to 0.60, you will say "hai-ya ... I shouldnt have sold it at 0.55 la - loook ... I TOLD YOU SO" blah blah blah ... hmm ... empty speeches. Hmm ... I will always keep mum when I heard of such words(I heard of that again yesterday when I spoke to my klse- investor-colleague!).

So, what is the probability that EAH will give me another 10% profits? Say, jump up again one day to 0.53? Yes, even 0.53 giving me 10% now. And what if it goes lower than 0.45(its HISTORICAL low - err ... new IPO la, very short history tracks!! hehe)? Will I be a buyer like what I done with JCY? Nope!! JCY and EAH are TOTALLY different kinda of stocks, need to trade differently!!

What is my time frame for EAH? Hmm ... forever? Haha ... ok ok, I seldom hold a stock longer than 3 months, so I want to hold it longer than that as a record! A123 ... I will hold till market collapse(if double-dip is here) and buy more at that dip!! I m looking beyond 2011 and recession should be back in US by 2012(end of world?).

Domino Effects : You sell, I sell. You buy, I buy. Err ... you profit, I profit. But if you lose, dont get near me!! Hmm ... domino effects always in my mind. What I mean is, the selling compounded as FEAR in play ... when we bought a stock, most of the time we are NOT independent. Majority DO NOT have a system. They bought it because SOMEONE they knew or heard some tips(from remisiers or broker reports - HAHAHA ... allow me to laugh) bought into it. Now, when someone cut loss ... screaming SELL, you will sell too. Then, you will call your friends whom you have ask him to buy due to hot-tips(sure go up la ... I see you are my good friend hor, I give you this hot-tips to buy what I m buying la) ... to SELL. I dont know how to phrase it in words but I guess we can understand domino-effects well in markets!!

Markets ALWAYS over-react towards certain 'news'. Capitalising on it wont be easy as you have to think logic and against the herds. Yes, you have to be a contrarian and be a fool. People prefer to point-out Warren Buffett's mistakes rather than his takes. But, many investment books will certainly mention him!! He understands domino-effects so well that he capitalised it to his benefits. Can you imagine that he bought BYD at 8.00 days after Lehman Bros collapsed and markets in chaos?? BYD went all the way up to 80.00!! That is 10-times in less than 0ne year!!(BYD corrects since then).

At the moment, JCY may be a very good example - SELLING was very very real since last week till Wednesday(RSI went all the way to 15). They will give you 10-reasons or more WHY MUST SELL. If I m holding to IPO at 1.50 level, selling at RM1 is painful afterall I was jumping happily as I was the successful subcribers to its IPO(3.5 time over subscribed), ok? But, selling was SO intensed on WEDnesday that domino-effects telling us nothing ... but to fall with others, like dominos!! Applying a contrarian mindset, it is a STRONG BUY.

I m amazed as yesterday the BUYING was so so strong that all my queues for selling done!! As for today, it is done at 1.11 and 1.15 so far. Buying momentum somehow follows domino-effects too ... technically, it rebounded yesterday giving 4R1G signal, MACD crossover, RSI at 38 and will be nearing 50 after today? TA giving a BUY and counter-trend applied.

Learning to understand domino effects on buying and selling is interesting as it involves human's financial behaviours!! Why do we see selling intensed after days later or why a stock continues to shoot higher even tho it is an empty shell? We are all gamblers. I admit I m ... being in markets?

Tell me ... is today a buy for JCY? We are all really different.

Knowledge : IF I m so confident about JCY's rebound, I would have BUY into its call-warrants. I was looking at JCY-cb and was at 0.03 on Wed night. It is at 0.045 now ... hmm ... 50% profits in two days? See? I have traded call-warrants before (KLSE, SGX and HKSE - I hv not tried options in US but believe me, I will). Looking into call-warrants is obvious way of leveraging on mommy's movements but it is HIGH risk instruments, ok?

Knowledge and experiences ... combined that ... imagine 3 years later, when I have both, do you think I will have higher probabilities of profitting compared to NOW? Think ... many NEVER even venture beyond blue-chips as market IS a risky place!

Example : TopGlove-cc at 0.115 today. I m watching it as when rubber-rally is back these call-warrnts will attract many punters alike. The trick is to get in earlier before the rally starts. SELL when the herds are back. But, how low is low? TopGlove is at 5.99 today.

Be Open-minded : This is one point I m reminding myself - as a novice and new to market environments(I know many viewing me as 'pro' but I m not, ok?) I need to learn and be open mind enough to constructively THINK about some trades. It is the only way I could benefit from my shallow experiences. So, I always keep myself open - even listening to some uncles boasting how well-versed they are in stock markets. He might as well own BURSA by himself! Or listening to some 'gurus' and learn from them. To me, I need to EXPERIMENT it in my way ... and not blindly follow any 'sifu'. Be my own 'sifu', I will say.

Genting : You do KNOW why there is a sell-down today, losing 26cents, right? Genting will go below RM9 soon, I believe. GenM will go below Rm3 too. For short-term traders who are riding on the rise of Genting, today is a profit-taking day, which pulling the KLCI lower(by 8 points now).

KLCI down 8 points but still stands tall as being one of the best stock-markets around!! Yippee ... Malaysia Boleh. MERDEKA ... as they yelled. To me, KLCI is OVERBOUGHT as due to correction(or dive, up to u to see). KLCI supprted by local funds in FEW selected index-linked counters. IF YOU DO NOT EVEN KNOW these, err ... time to pause. Buy during correction, ok?

We are looking at 1,500 and by 2011, new HIGH will be registered?? I just read The Star just now.

2.40 pm : MRCB up today in active trades. Yesterday UEMLand, Zelan and MMC. Gamuda too. Still optimistic on the projects? But, why Zelan? Syed's factor?

Support : At 1.67 now ... Remember I CUT it off? I was holding hugely in SUPPORT when I was in Taman Negara last month ... at 1.50. Today it is 10% profits!! Yeah ... buy now? Hmm ...

Hai-O : At 3.30, up 8% .... buy today? No la ... buying was 2 days ago. To me, buying today is too late. WHAT IF .... it shoot higher? WHAT IF ... it go back to RM3 later?? Think ...

I prefer waterfalls ... I mentioned Hai-O last week. I cant focus so many as I was looking into my knife, no no ... ex-knife JCY. At the moment, I like those waterfalls such as KurAsia, Waseong or even IJMLand. I may add in GPacket and Adventa!! Nice charts. Nope, I did not learn that from CN. Those are good in TA and buying those moving up. I learnt to catch waterfalls/knives since last year. So, I hv only 1 year experience attached.

Signs of Distress : I read not one but two comments placed showing distress from traders who are losing MONEY ... one in Alex Lu's blog(and he is so kind to answer him - definitely a loser or novice or both) and another at CN's forum(shooting the trainers!). Nope! I did not read the details, just glanced through to know what is going on around. It helps me to THINK and wonder HOW I could answer such 'bad comments' if I m going to be a trainer someday! I cant be telling the person ... yan-yan-yan and have green-tea, on me! Can I? Haha ... also, I cant be 'rude' as I m now 'ignoring' e-mail and comments, right? I m ANSWERABLE to them if they are my 'clients'.

It is better to be independent - pretending that you know about stock and write in your own blog for own pleasure readings!! I m talking about myself, of coz.

Today is the last day in office ... off for two weeks holiday! Yeah!! So, I m in jovial mood not because of JCY(stocks didnt really affect my emotions, human did).

Alam : Back in track today after the dive days ago.

MudaJaya : Done a stunt in last half hour of trading ... at 4.50 now, up 13%. It was in red this morning at 3.90 below!! WOW.



YJ said...

In my opinion, JCY is still not a BUY yet.. At least not until it successfully (and maybe strongly) close above RM1.20 which is the immediate resistance..

CP said...

Hi YJ,

It is a SELL to me, not buy. Will clear most of my holdings at 1.20, its resistance now. That is TA. I m not using TA. I used OA. haha

So, when can we go yum-char?


YJ said...

You are making a right decision by selling at the resistance cause you have been accumulating it at much lower prices. For someone just entering the stock, buying at above RM1.20 would be a good price because it may be an indication that the stock has changed trend and the stock should move upwards from there. Of course, it will become a SELL again if it happens to break below RM1.20 (resistance turned support).

I am mostly only free on weekends but it also depends whether I already have anything planned in advance or not.

Imoogi said...

It is always the case...they dont blame themselves for doing badly in the stock market. Had they blame themselves then they will be able to find the reason why and look at the root cause and improve from there.
That's why 95% lose in the stock market and only 5% win. Every losing or winning trade is a learning experience and it is good that you study your own trade rather blaming others.

As for JCY, on the TA side, am looking it to close above 1.30 then it can consider a buy or else still sell.