Wednesday, September 01, 2010

APWR : Watching it as I like windpower stocks. Historical low at 3.40 level. So, if US market to dive in Sept-Nov now, time to collect some. As markets going into overbought level, we have to prepare to huge corrections soon. I think it will plunge very fast rather than correct in slow pace.
It may take till DEC to recover ... so, hang-on or cut now? Accumulate at lower level?

Wake me up when SEPTEMBER ends

DOW flat ... APWR at new low at 5.70 level now. A123 at 6.50. Hmm ...

JCY : My simple poll generated only 36 votes with most giving me a SELL or STRONG SELL calls. Thanks to those voted. Those have not, please feel free to click you opinion on JCY. JCY is a 'hard-disk' related company, trading at new low everyday. I will want to drive to Johore next week(since I m going to Malacca for holiday!!) and visit JCY.

Hai-O : Since sold it at 3.44, I am watching it moving lower - at 3.14 now, lost 30cents since. It broken its strong support at 3.25(my buying point) and expect more selling pressure, technically, before bargain-hunters are back. Quite unlikely in such market sentiments now. I WONT be buying it unless markets dive, even then I will have a handful of beautiful waterfalls to grab. Hai-O will be one of it. FA is good for investors. Wait.

Efficient : I have only one queue to BUY today(others SELL), at 0.180. I will collect more at 0.170, 0.160?

9.05 am : KLCI up 8 points. BULL is running ... JCY going to new low at 0.945. Hey, KNM ... where have you been, babe? KNM is diving lower today? WHY?

KNM : At 0.435 now ... DOWN DOWN DOWN. Then, Lee will come out and say 'take it private' at 0.90. It will jump up again. Very speculative. KLCI up 12 points and bullish, ok?

JCY : Touched new low of 0.925 ... waiting for 0.88 as planned.

KurAsia : At 0.42 ... seeing 0.38? It is valued at RM1 by RHB, ok? I dont know if they have downgraded it?

Hai-O : At 3.08 now.

10.05 am : Hai-O at 3.03 ... we shall check after market closes later. Watching JCY as I m catching a sharp knife. OUCH.

11.15 am : New low at 0.90 ... 0.88 not done yet. Crazy or plain stupid? I read one of the blog - If you bought a rubbish-stock, you are staying with rubbish. You will stink too - nicely said. I m stinking now as I bought into JCY. CUT or BUY more? It is extremely oversold ... but this is a rubbish stock in rubbish sector. Notion and GTronic are moving lower each day too. Tech-stocks ... it is SELL SELL SELL ... louder now. I dont know if it is a mere correction or it could never see light anymore? Hmm ...

JCY : Queueing at 0.90, 0.88 and 0.85 now.

TopGlove : I cleared half at 6.10, preparing for ZhongWang. ZhongWang rebounds a little today but I rather wait for markets to dive now.

11.50 am : JCY done more at 0.90. OUCH.

Dali wrote about JCY in points form. Such a good analysis, as always. I read an analyst with a local broker house written that at 1.20, the weaknesses in the price is a time to BUY as the price has factored in. Now, Dali said the base might be at 0.65-0.75. OUCH. So, I shall stop buying while waiting at 0.66 level. Hmm ...

I do read about most of the points - I like point #5. Everybody is keeping mum. I wonder why there is no one from the management level making any statement to clarify things OR there is no share buybacks. That could shatter many investors' confidence(including mine). Perhaps they WANT the stock to tank and buy it cheaply at 0.65? Please understand that many of these 'culprits' are insiders ... and minority shareholders certainly at their peril ... arrghh ...

12.10 pm : SweeJoo ... I have not seen her for years now. Today it dives in HIGH volume as she is going into the PN17 zone. Is SweeJoo 'steel or metal' related stock? I cant even remember its business now. I do know KianJoo is dealing with 'cans' business. CAN = BOLEH.

2.05pm : Thanks for the two comments and two e-mail regarding JCY. Yes, it is a sector to avoid at all cost at the moment. Any technical rebound will see me sell some. I think I have an average of 1.08 after todays' 0.90 purchases. Will it go further down? Perhaps it will as the sector is rubbished by investors. I like the word 'cyclical' and it is in downtrend now. I like the negative outlook at the moment too. So, obviously stock-price will continue to go lower. When will it rebound? That is everyone's guess.

At the moment, I m collecting in stages. Perhaps, I should abandon my 0.77 buying level and prepare at 0.66 now. I m not cutting losses yet, but if there is a technical rebound(extremely oversold), I will clear some for losses, only to buy more at lower level. I m waiting for that technical rebound, if any. IF NOT, then I m preparing to hold till DEC and beyond.

KLCI moving to new highs everyday ... and overbought. I m not sure ... but I have a bad feeling that it will coreect HUGELY or dive soon. So, nothing look attractive much, and I m becoming the rubbish-collector! Hehe

My time frame : 3 - 6 months, as I hv written earlier.

Flash memory will not replace HDD in the nearest future but perhaps it will soon(or sooner than expected). That is merely my opinion. I m not a tech-person, either.

Perfect storm : I read about an article about contrarian before ... it speaks about buying during 'perfect storm' period. JCY is in perfect-storm situation at the moment. We wont know when the storm will be over ... but if we could hang-on long enough, perhaps when the storm is over, some rescuers will hear our S.O.S(save our ship). Hmm ...

I will take some losses ... but will continue to buy lower at the moment. Wish me luck, I need it till Christmas!

3.30 pm : JCY done at 0.88. OUCH. Every cent down is inflictin pain on me. OUCH.

4.15 pm : I cleared TopGlove at 6.09, market value. So, I do not have any rubber to rebound now. Hard-disk is too hard to rebound.

Efficient : Bought at 0.18 now. Next level is 0.17, 0.16 and 0.15. Hope it wont dive so fast like JCY, unexpectedly.

EPMB : At 0.485 ... another E that I will collect. I hv EAH, Efficient ... hmm ...

SEG-wa : At 1.15, losing 13.5% today. Hmm ...

Hai-O : At 2.97 now ... hmm ...

Adventa : At 2.42 now ... hmm ...

Warrants that I will monitor

AnnJoo-wb : AT 0.535 now ... hmm ... this will dive further, I think.

SPSetia-wb : At 0.485 now ... hmm ...

IJMLand-wa : At 0.995 now ... hmmm ...

KPJ-wa : At 1.66 now ... hmm ....

8.30 pm : Just done with my badminton. I promised myself to do some exercise and badminton is my game. With those sweat, I smashed as hard ... like hitting the hard-disk hard. Haha.

I have started to buy into JCY at 1.35-1.40 ... it was at its low at that point of time. I cut loss of Rm1k+ and bought at 1.20, then 1.15 ... only to clear half for small profits, before it started to DIVE ... I dont know if it is panic selling or some insiders selling due to 'they-know-better' news. So, currently I have added quite a huge position and I think my average is around 1.05 level.

I have no intention to cut loss yet ... due to I m in FEAR. If it rebounds a 8-10% each time, I will sell ... and continue to collect it lower. I DONT KNOW ...

Maybe I may not sound really sad or anguish or ... err ... are we supposed too? I used to but I m immune of 'losing'(that is bad!) ... so, I m still watching. Perhaps I should pause from buying for a time being. That is more logical ... with my time frame of 3 months, IF it goes all the way to 50cent level ... then it could be too painful to cut? IF fundamentally flawed, I will cut it no matter what. I have done that - burnt RM10k+ so far ... that is market giving us the lessons. Some learn it the hard way(like me), some are luckier with some gurus coaching and leading them. Whatever ... I m emotionless. Just wondering when this selling will ends ... hmm ...

Taken from the EdgeDaily

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of hard-disk drive manufacturer fell to its historic low of 87.5 sen in late afternoon trade on Wednesday, Sept 1 in the absence of fresh negative news despite RHB Research Institute maintaining a market perform call and fair value of RM1.32.

At 3.31pm, it was down eight sen to 88.5 sen. There were 23.74 million shares done at prices ranging from 87.5 sen to 96 sen.

RHB Research said that JCY, given its reliance on Western Digital and Seagate, was looking to expand its customer base as well as increase its margins.

Going forward, JCY’s earnings will be mainly driven by: 1) strong demand for the 2.5’’ HDD fuelled by stronger-than-expected demand for mobile PCs and consumer electronics; 2) resilient demand for the 3.5’’ HDD stemming for demand for desktops and gaming consoles; and 3) improving corporate and consumer IT spending.

“We maintain our Market Perform call on the stock with a fair value of RM1.32/share based on an unchanged 10x FY11 EPS,” it said.

TEH : Time for RHB to revise their outlook in JCY, otherwise they look stupid too? Hmm ... Who is the analyst who peg the TP at 1.32 or 10x EPS ar?

JCY : BUY or BYE??


Kuala Lumpur, 12th February 2010 – JCY International Berhad (“JCY” or the “Company”), one of the largest global precision engineering manufacturers of hard disk drive (HDD) mechanical components held its balloting ceremony yesterday following a successful close of its Initial Public Offering (“IPO”) exercise for both its Institutional and Retail Offerings. The Company is scheduled for listing on the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad on 25 February 2010.

JCY Chairman Dr Rozali Mohamed Ali said that “We are pleased that our IPO has been well-received by both foreign and local investors. The company has been doing well and we believe we are well positioned in the global HDD market to benefit from growth opportunities. Those who are familiar with our industry or have read the prospectus would clearly understand our prospects and will know the extent of our capabilities”.

JCY’s Retail Offering of 59,893,000 shares closed at 5:00 p.m. on 8 February 2010, with a Final Retail Price of RM1.52 per share. The Retail Offering to the Malaysian public of 40,898,000 was opened for only a week and received 17,311 successful applications for approximately 184,752,900 shares, resulting in an oversubscription rate of 3.52 times

The Institutional Offering via a global bookbuilding exercise which ended on 10 February 2010 was successfully priced at RM1.60 per share in spite of the volatile market conditions. The Institutional Offering received healthy participation from both foreign and local investors. In the interest of investors, JCY fixed the size of the Institutional Offering at 383 million shares after taking into account response from the bookbuilding process, current market sentiment and the minimum 25% public shareholding spread requirement.

The total number of shares sold in the IPO is 442,893,000 representing 21.7% of JCY’s
share capital. Total gross proceeds from the IPO to the selling shareholder is approximately RM704 million. At RM1.60 per share, the implied market capitalisation of JCY is approximately RM3.3 billion, making it potentially the largest technology stock to be listed on the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad upon listing date. JCY has three facilities in Malaysia located in Johor, Melaka and Penang employing approximately 16,000 employees and contract workers. JCY also has a facility located in Saraburi, Thailand and is in the process of establishing a new facility in Suzhou in the People’s Republic of China. The company currently is one of the
strategic suppliers to Seagate and Western Digital. As of November 2009, the Company has started working with Alphana on base plates for Hitachi and Samsung Motor-Base Assembly.

JCY has total assets of RM1,461.1 million as at September 2009. The Company recorded a revenue of RM1,758.0 million and net profit of RM207.3 million for its financial year ended 30 September 2009.

Note : I m buying into JCY and it is NOT a recommendation of a BUY or SELL. Do NOT buy what I m buying as this might be a VERY sharp knife and I may never recover ...



YJ said...

Hi Teh,

I wouldn't say you are stupid or crazy. We each have our own ways of investing and ultimately, we are responsible for the gains or losses we make.

Anyways, I really think the tech and rubber sectors are to be avoided (for now), at least until they stabalize or show a "real" sign of recovery. Otherwise, you will be really buying into a "rubbish" sector.

To be honest, I think both of these sectors will recover some day but the question is when? After being battered down so much, I seriously doubt any recovery will be swift. How long are you willing to wait and park your money in these non-moving stocks? Perhaps answering these questions can help you decide whether to hold or cut loss.

Imoogi said...

JCY should be a SELL unless they can improve on their profit. Paying debts to owner and at the same time HDD business is on the downtrend. The flash memory will eventually replace the HDD...current flash memory is at 64GB and does not eat up space....beside that with 64GB x4, you can basically replace all those HDD in the notebook. With volume on the flash memory, price will fall further and make easier for the company to switch from HDD to flash memory.

Imoogi said...

Hello Teh, you can see that you cant get 3.5inch floppy drive in the market now...if not mistaken cd-rom drive already a collectors item as it is now being replace by dvd drive. So likewise for HDD. HDD will be used in the servers that requires terabytes of storage unless someone comes out with a new flash memory at 1TB. Look at the thumb drive...those days 256MB is a lot but now 16GB or more in your palm.

Just end of this year, more notebook/netbook without HDD will be in the market.

See this..

Article appear in June 2009 and now ipad is the 1st to use it...eventually more.

In short, avoid HDD company for now.

takeiteasy said...

hi Teh,

better to cut loss earlier next time rather than catching falling knives. i think all of us also kena 'burn' before.....