Friday, September 24, 2010

DOW down a little. I will be busy with classes today till 7pm. Hence, I dont think so I could write or trade.

Hanging man

Queues : To clear EAH, Efficient, Kinstel, SigGas and TAGB all at 10% higher than my cost prices. I do not think so it will be done today, but this is market ... you will never know. Also, queue to buy all my five babes at 5-10% lower. Yes, if they dive today, it is to collect more. KLCI is still bullish, buying during correction, ok?

Warrants : IJMLand-wa down yesterday and I will continue to queue to clear at 1.11 for 10% profits. GenM-cl is to hold for a while, watching the mommy GenM to rebound. GenM is still bullish and uptrend. The two days correction is good to maintain its uptrend.

Waterfalls : This is the term I started to use about 2 years ago ... hmm ... it is interesting that some of bloggers, forum-mers and my readers are using that term too. Someone mentioned a XXX lousy stock forming a waterfall! When I read that, I was ... thinking! Hey, if he is using my term of waterfall, that is NOT what I meant. Perhaps I never DEFINE the waterfalls I meant. So, I will write it here if those could not see the meaning behind it. My brain AT TIMES is 'complex' and 'abstract'(thanks to my Mathematical brain!).

Waterfall - How I define it

To be called a 'Waterfall', first of all the chart MUST shown DOWNtrend and it must be at least down for 2 weeks. If possible, down for two months. So, the longer(time frame) it has been falling, the nicer the waterfall be.

Second : The percentage of falling must be more than 10% down from the point when it starts falling, and the sharper(faster rate of falling) the better.

Combining the 1st and 2nd, I will calculate its GRADIENT(changes in price over time = rate of the price falling). IF the current gradient is larger than the previous gradient, then it is worth stalking while it is called forming a nice waterfall!

Third : Not all counters could be called water-fall. From the word WATER, being a Chinese ... WATER = MONEY. So when you said waterfall, it means money is falling!! In Malay, they used 'durian runtuh'(durian is falling). So, could u see how I termed waterfall now? Yes, money is falling, literally. haha ... it means, opportunities-la. So, those counters I termed nice waterfall must be a GOOD stocks which I think will rebound.

Example : Saag and LCL is NOT waterfall to me. I never bother to stalk them. BUT they satisfied my 1st condition. Saag is drifting lower in very slow pace, actually. So, it does not satisfied my 2nd point and definitely wont satisfy my 3rd water-falling point.

4th : A nice waterfall should also show some technical properties such as trading near the strong support. That will be nice. As selling pressure could press it lower to break the strong support, I will check its gradient at the support point. Then, look into its volume. If the selling volume decreases, it shows the selling pressure is drying ... and reversal might in line. Then, I should EXPECT its RSI to go below 30(the lower the better - I will also do some RSI analysis on it IF I have real intention to buy) and stochastic to show overSOLD region.

5th : wait till i could remember!!

Another term I do use(coined) is RA = rojak analysis. Haha. If anyone is using it, please ask me for the definition so that we all have the same understanding when we use it in our writings. Afterall, it started or originated from ... ME.

10.10 am : Oh boy!! Karambunai up another 30% with KLCI down 9 points. I m still wearing red today!! Cleared half of my GenM-cl for small losses. StockQuest ... what is that? PUNTERS and the winner is up almost 50% now. If I were him, I will STOP trading for whole month or play it conservatively, thanks to the LUCK of buying Karambunai using RM100k. If it is a REAL money, will you bet the syndicate will goreng this one? Look at KLSE top 10 stocks today, then you will know why some term markets as a gambling haven. IT IS ... and that shows many uncles/aunties are coming into KLSE to play too. I mentioned Talam to be goreng yesterday and it is ... but in a milder manner. It will be a good punt but the risk high IF you are using your real money. If not, PUNT PUNT ... gamble la(stock borkers will like many to go into markets to earn money/fees from them).

TWSCorp : I grabbed it back at 0.94 yesterday, expecting another day of profit-taking but it is not moving lower for me to collect more or it.

EAH : At 0.58 now, reaching my target at 0.60. I will clear half at 0.60 and all at 0.63 if it shoots in a few trading days. Otherwise, I will hold. RSI at 60s now. Watch to clear for another 10% profits. Traing this one is VERY different from trading call-warrants, ok? This is in ACE market. Sorry, I wont explain what is ACE market ... do your homework or treat me my dinner, I can use half hour to explain ACE market and counters in them.

Kinstel : Queueing to buy at 0.84. I hv already moved in, so it is only logical to grab more at lower price, positioning for the bull-day. Today is another bearish day. BUY during correction?

GenM : Someone asked if GenM can buy when it shot up to 3.60 that day. As normal, I do not answer such questions. It is simply NOT possible to answer as you do not know the personalities and risk appetite of the person. But, those looking into GenM, I can say are investors or those not so high risk players. BUT why buy when it shot up 10% per day? How often GenM shot up 10% per day?? Tell me,please. NOW I m going to answer his question - if you are looking into it for dividend, I think many more give a better dividend, historically(do your homework). But, u r positive about its prospect and buy into its recent positiveness news, then CORRECTION like yesterday and today would be a good day to buy. At 3.60, nope. At 3.40 now, 20 cents discount, right? No one could tell you if it goes up or not ... but be prepare for it to move down. Protect your risk, calculate that ... and execute, ok? Good luck.

12.15 pm : Really busy ... arrghhh ... I hv to run again as I hv another 4 hours of tuition today!! yeah, shouldnt complain as I dont think so my trades could give me that RM400 net profits in a day trade, right? teaching is still my job, my passion. Off I go ...

MEGB : Managed to push above RM3 today ... a good sign to watch and to grab some for rebound play.

EAH : At 0.585 today, my queue at 0.605(was 0.600 yesterday) might be done later? We shall watch ... that will be able to pay the dinner I m going to treat my whole family this weekend. Yes, I profitted a lot(thanks to GenS-c8 and UEMLand-cc, also SigGas) this week .. so, closing EAH today will be a great week for me. I have not be able to sell IJMLand-wa at 1.11 for my another 10% but that is not as much. I hv heavy positions in EAH and SigGas now.

4.35 pm : Cut off TWSCorp for small loss as it is still moving lower. Kinstel and SigGas maintaining ... good. It is bearish again today with Genting pulling KLCI down. Well, Genting shot up above RM10, too fast for its own good. Time to consider Genting? I will look into its babies.

Hubline : At 0.180, recovering ... I guess.

EAH : Will close at 0.585, forming a white bullish candlestick today. So, I shall see if I still want to clear all at 0.600.

Property-rally : Today, in a sea of reds ... property-stocks are doing well. Sunrise continues to rise.

10.20 pm : Tired ... DOW up 170 points! wow!! DOW above 10, 800 level now. I cant remember when I attended a 'free market talk' by sifu-DAR WANG ... which initially I wrote in my blog about his BEARISH view ... he said market will move to 10,400 at most and start to DIVE. A wrong prediction!! Market continues to move higher ... well, he speaks about WAVE - the next leg down, a variation of the famous Elliott wave. I m a non-follower of EW as it is kinda 'longer' term formation of a wave. To predict how HIGH market could move up now and predict the downturn and how lOW it could correct/dive ... is like staring at the stars and say, hey ... I THINK that twinkle in the stars above telling me market could dive next week!! Better sell tmr ... or a comet seen, time to buy tech-stock as it will rally next month!!

Predictions could go VERY wrong ... that is why no one wish to stick their heads out to be chopped. If you still listening to CNBC or Bloomberg(I no longer subcribe to the channel to save some money!!), then you will hear the BULL vs BEAR call every week and for their own reasonings!!

It is safe to say that we should be OUR own sifu. IF we do listen to someone we considered as 'sifu', then be prepare to be disappointed and accept your losses as YOUR own responsibilities. I m still sore(and slapped myself for the blunder) about my trade with SUPPORT - I was observing it for 3 weeks as it was forming a waterfall and manage to buy at strong support at RM1.50. I sold it off as the BEARISH candlestick seen, confirming the SELL signal. It went above RM2 easily ... do u hv pain losing or pain selling off your stock only to see it moving higher and higher? How about the pain of NOT buying into a stock which you like but hesitated to move in - the feel the pain? HAI-YAH ... ##%$@&

Since that 'lesson', I decided NOT to look into TA or CN for a while. I lost many trades and I think the number of losing trades in that one month or so is more than my previous losses in ONE YEAR. I was confused and dis-oriented. It mixed so much with my OWN system that I m so used to. I like something oversold, buying at support and then wait for the rebound to sell for 10% profits. It might take weeks. But those buying high and selling high, I m still learning the TA. It is simply too complicated for my brain. I admit I m NOT good at all in my TA. My learning paused as I m more comfortable with my own way, tho it is NOT

So, even those sifus and trainers could not predict the direction of the markets, who are we to time the market or a particular stock, right?

Conclusion : Too many sifus around - all have their strength and weakness. The best sifu lies within us - ourselves. Like it or not, we have to make a decision whether we believe market will continue to move higher, KLCI breaching 1500 or to be bearish ... DOW to dive below 10k level and KLCI going to 1, 200 level or lower again. Hmm ... you think not possible? Are you bullish or bearish? If bullish, the current correction would be an exciting time to BUY but if you are bearish, guess u hv cleared all and waiting for the huge double-dip ... and preparing to buy!!

Now, as DOW moving at 10,800 level ... do you think DOW will go to 11k level or 10k level first?? Decide on that and act accordingly.

At the moment, market sentiments are still good ... and positive. So, I m moving heavier into markets and even punted in CWs which I have 'left' it since the last time I cut off BJToto-cg for a huge loss. I m wiser than I was 6 months ago, frankly. And yes, I m so much wiser and knowledgable than I was 2 years ago. I m glad I never give up tho I was losing a lot of trades in my first year(2008) ... Next year, 2011 ... whether market moving up or down, I will be much more prepare to capitalise when the opportunities knocks. I know I will continue to learn and continue to listen to many other 'sifus'.


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