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Thursday, August 05, 2010

EAH : I started to buy it three days ago(last black candle) from 0.535 level going all the way to 0.480 with increasing volumes made. I m not topping up as I still have queues at 0.45 to BUY. As now it touched 0.535 again, closed at 0.530 ... the volumes are low. I will SELL when technically it is OVERBOUGHT, or gaining me 20+% or high volumes moving in to buy. That is my selling point. Buying next level will be at 0.450. Whichever way it goes, I dont know but I will glad.

DOW up a little. KLCI up a little too.

JCY and EAH down today.

12.55 pm : I have to go for my classes in 5 minutes - busy till 6.30pm. My Acer netbook repaired. I went to the service center directly in the morning.

Notion VTec shares extend decline - the headline for The Egde Financial Daily Paper - first time I bought it to read. It written about HDD and Tech-stocks. So, I m a terrible investor - I bought JCY, Notion and EAH as they are falling!! And I started to collect on TopGlove and Supermax. Gosh ... these two sectors are badly hurt as it has been shooting for months. Currently markets are rebounding from the 'sell in May', as expected after the World Cup.

From btimes.com.my

JCY offer price 'fairly valued'

The initial public offer (IPO) price for JCY International Bhd, a hard-disk drive (HDD) maker, appears to be expensive, analysts say, although they conceded that the technology industry has a bright future.


JCY, to be listed on the Main Market at the end of this month, has priced its IPO at an indicative RM2 per share for retail investors.

"We think it's fairly valued and offers minimum upside.

"However, we think it's understandable. Naturally, the owner would want the best price possible," OSK Research head Chris Eng said.

ECM Libra said the IPO is priced at a historical earnings multiple of 19.7 times while a smaller peer like Notion VTec trades at a historical multiple of 11.8 times.

This makes JCY very expensive, ECM Libra analyst Lim Tee Yang said in a report.

The IPO, Southeast Asia's largest technology offer since 2000, is an offer for sale by its sole shareholder YKY Investments Ltd.

YKY will sell 25.9 per cent or 530.2 million JCY shares. About 11 per cent of that block is for retail investors and the rest for institutions.

The final retail price will be the lower of RM2 or 95 per cent of the institutional price. The book-building exercise for the institutions ends today.

The company plans to adopt a progressive dividend policy of up to 50 per cent of its net profit.

"Based on annualised financial year 2010 figures, dividend yields may go as high as 4.2 per cent assuming the maximum 50 per cent payout.

"However, as JCY has highlighted it will adopt a progressive dividend policy, we conservatively assume that JCY may pay out 20 per cent of its financial year 2010 earnings as dividends, implying financial year 2010 dividend per share of 2.2 sen or dividend yields of 1.7 per cent," said Lim.

JCY, which posted turnover of RM1.76 billion for fiscal year 2009, makes HDD mechanical components for Western Digital and Seagate.

"I think the demand for HDDs, especially the 2.5-inch HDDs, will continue to grow. I believe JCY has good future," said Eng

Read more: JCY offer price 'fairly valued' http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/jcy08/Article/#ixzz0vh23rAws


3.05 pm : Finally SUPPORT is moving!! Hmm ... IO no longer want to trade.

TopGlove : Done at 6.50 as it is down 15 cents. TopGlove is oversold.

Hai-O and Mudajaya continues its down-turn. Talking about FEAR, Mudajaya is making me freaking fear ... and I still didnt dare to catch this KNIFE. Hmm ... be greedy when you are in fear!!


MudaJaya : Free fall ... at 4.30 now, discounted 13% today.

3.30 pm : Mudajaya going below RM4, at 3.90 now. Buying??!! I m tempted as I m in FEAR. Reading the article form The Edge now.

3.35 pm : It was VERY fast ... MudaJaya done at 3.90, only 1k done. Looking at 4.00 now. OUCH!!

EAH : At 0.535 now, will only SELL when buyers rushing to have her. I have average around 0.495.

JCY : Back to 1.25 level.

Supermax : Bought yesterday at 6.01, up to 6.17 now.

MudaJaya another 1k units done at 3.95. Sit on it ... I m buying so many waterfalls and very much exposed now. I need to clear some. 3A which I cleared at 1.85, up to 1.89 now.

3.50 pm : Cleared MudaJaya moments ago at 4.10!! Wow ... I m so greedy, yet kiasu. haha. And it is still moving higher!! To be honest, luckily I m FREE at the right time.

Supermax : At 6.23. Good.

4.05 pm : Using my WATERFALLS scan, I looked for top-loser in KLSE today... MudaJaya is a sore winner!! Topglove down 16 cents, asking me to grab her. Sime is pulling KLCI down with her, Tasek down ... Help, Jerneh and Proton also in top-10 losers. So, I went for a quick punt for MudaJaya and collect my TopGlove. That is how I spotted Supermax yesterday and moved into it. That is also how I trade, catching a KNIFE.

4.30 pm : Today is GTronic turn ... it is going down 6%, at 1.32 now.

MudaJaya : OUCH ... it went up to 4.20 after I released at 4.10 and now back to 4.00 level!! I m not going to punt, tho I feel greedy.

SuperMax : Sold at 6.24 as I m grabbing TopGlove.

Notion : Nice. At 2.15 now, as it went to 2.03 this morning below my purchase price of 2.08 yesterday. Wait.

8.50 pm : KLCI climbed up and closed slightly lower.

So, I m holding TopGlove(added today), EAH, JCY and Notion.

Oversold

1. BJCorp
2. Hai-O
3. JCY
4. Jetson-wa
5. Kossan
6. KStar
7. Notion
8. Technology
9. TopGlove

From the above, the reds mean below my cost price, the green is above my cost price. NONE of them I will sell as they are oversold. When I will sell? When they rebound to a level where it is overbought or TA showing reversal. Hope I know how to see that level and will share it here. Currently, I like Hai-O and Kossan.

I've exited Supermax for small profits today as I m more into Topglove which moved down. I might grab Kossan tmr(highly likely) while watching Hai-O. Do not tell me about Ranhill running up the hill or AirAsia taken off. I m NOT into momentum stocks. I must discipline myself and will NOT go into CN's forum anymore. They are playing a very different game. I m catching knives where I need to buy gloves so that my cuts will not be too deep? Yes, gloves ... and HDD.

Seriously, DO NOT buy what I m buying as I m going against the tide, and it is very difficult to swim against the tide, we might get drown.

KOSSAN is a BUY today. That is my stock pick. Hot tips or whatever you call it. Make sure you treat me dinners if you gain from it,ok?

10.10 pm : Another waterfall I bought was BP, when it dived from USD60 to USD37 ... but unfortunately I listened to too many FEARFUL(but they meant good!!) people around and sold for a loss at USD30. Today it is back to USD40, gaining me 10% actually. Ok, BP sold for a loss... I grabbed A123 when it dived from USD20 to below USD10 ... grabbed at USD9 but only to chicken-out for small loss at USD8.70. That is because that WRONGED TA of mine ... the wrong candle-sticks and it shot up after being upgraded by Barclay. Well, I grabbed at 10.50 ... today it is at 11.40. Wait ... from USD9 to USD11.40, how many percent is that? So, I decided to LISTEN to myself ... shut-off from those BEARS and those TA people around. Thanks for your concerns but I really like waterfalls, ok??

Tell me, when should we be buying a stock? I was taught to FOLLOW THE TREND, buy high to sell higher ... look at TA and breakout. Of coz, if it didnt fly-off, we called it failed breakout. I highlighted SOLAR stocks in US which being hammered in US ... SOLR was at USD5 just one month ago ... today it is reaching for USD8. When do you buy the stock again? After BP jumped to USD40 or USD50?? Or buying SOLR today as it is moving UP 13% now?? At a point, I admit I was BLINDED by the influence of many sifus in CN who have a buy-sell calls almost everyday!! Seriously, I really thought they are extremely good in TA. Hmm ... I prefer to do it my own way ... and be patient. I m more of a position-trader or swing trader rather than day-trader!! Even contra-play is NOT for me.

Tell me ... when do you buy a stock? When the news is out about E&O?? Or P&O?? Be careful with Sinotop or BJCorp. Even KNM, Scomi and such ... trade, do not buy and hold as syndicates are using these to LURE ikan-bilis. Admit it ... most of us get burnt by these trades. How many % of those holding KNM NOW are profitting?? Most of them are LOSING money, or paper-loss if you like it. KNM has been OPENLY used as speculative counter!!

So, I have every reasons to MYSELF to buy Kossan tmr and will continue to add into the oversold TopGlove while waiting for the sector to rebound. I dont know when, but I know it will and gladly to BUY more if TopGlove going lower tmr. We shall see ...
Tech-index in oversold today. Yes, the whole sector is BAD and lousy now!! When do you suppose to BUY stocks again? I thought it should be 'buy low, sell high'?? As low will go lower, right?

TEH

2 comments:

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YJ said...

At least Supermax is moving today. I think a rubber rally should begin soon. Most of the rubber stocks have been oversold for quite a while already.