Wednesday, August 18, 2010

DOW up 100 points.

Think like a Turtle

1. It's not about who's right

2. Forget the past

3. Avoid the future tense

4. Think in probability, not prediction

5. Take responsibility for your own trades

MAS : RHBInvest has under-perform call with target price cut to RM1.94 but CIMB has a out-perform call with target RM3. Which one do you believe? It is at 2.20 now. If you are going to read more of these brokers' reports(which I have stopped for a year now!!), you will be confused and wonder WHY there is such a huge discrepancy in their price target.

Point #1 : Turtles do not care about being right. They care about making money.

So, using MAS as an example here. It doesnt matter whether you listen to RHB or CIMB regarding their views in MAS. It doesnt matter who is right. The most important thing in US, investors or traders is to profit from our trades in MAS. It makes sense, but it is certainly DIFFICULT for us to 'foresee' the future.

So, I 'lost' a trade in MAS as I went in when it was moving up higher, ignoring the GREED in play or even look into its over-bought charts. My mind was thinking .... it will be a short trade. Since I m going to clear more of my current holdings, I could top-up and clear it together the next day! Emotions always in play when we do not look into our plans critically and sway away from our plans(if any).

I m on CIMB side in this case(MAS). I will continue to collect MAS at 1.90(RHB's level) and using TA to clear it at 2.30 level. I FAILED to follow my plan. It touched 2.31 on Monday ... instead of clearing, I bought into it. So, such mistakes done by traders/investors are very common. What is needed is DISCIPLINE to follow plans. I failed in that many of times, honestly.

So, it is not about being knowledgable or think that we are intelligent. It is not to prove that we are right. It is the end-results or the bottom line - making money - that counts. Thats remind me of EXAMS. It is the final result A or F you obtain counts and NO ONE will ask you how many hours you put into your studies in the whole year!!

Tech-stocks are rebounding - Unisem and ENG are doing better than JCY or Notion at the moment. Now, it doesnt matter if my buying into JCY is wrong. I lost. JCY might rebound after Unisem/ENG ... we could NEVER know the future. But, what is important is to stick to my beliefs that in 2-3 months time, it will be clearer for tech-stocks and I believe they will recover. So, if I monitor too much about it, read too much of those reports/articles, listen to too many people around. I should listen to myself. Currently, I will ride on Unisem as JCY is not performing(yet). So, I cleared some JCy at 1.22 for Unisem at 2.14 yesterday. JCY may shoot to 1.30 later or Unisem going to 2.00 later ... totally against my trades, so I have to be prepared for such worst-case scenerio. But, trading with edge means ... the probability of that to occur is lower than what I have in my trading plan.

Another point to put is turtle-Curtis using 10 weeks time frame for his trades. I noticed that I seldom hold on to my trades longer than that, and most of my INITIAL trades were as planned, if I could hold longer to it. Hence, I m going to place a longer time frame for my trades, allowing the trades to done.

Let us use MAS again ... at 2.20, I will trim more later ... but in longer view, I still see that it will attracts investors. What I need to do is to grab back when it retraces to support level(s), accumulating it and be patient. The day like Monday, a crazy buying will be back. That should be the time to sell. Yes, need to think opposite ot the herds instead of being one of them.

That is also how I look at EAH. I will not do anything until it shoots higher in A day or in overbought region. That may takes me 2-3 months or longer. I just need to wait, and will only top-up at 0.45-0.48 level.

So, I was negotiating with myself, to adopt 'turtle' ways of thinking. It is not new to me as I have been reading about those 'correct ways' of thinking for a trader. What you know may not what you will do. We are all in such dilemma. That is also WHY I m learning TA ... to close of my emotions. I m so used to losing(more than winning) and I m immuned? But, I believe I will still continue to learn ... and slowly it starts to make sense to me(especially why I m losing) ...

I could only hope I do not give-up my learning and shorten my learning curves.

Till then, I could only watch more mistakes I m making and trying to correct it. I m not here to claim I m right as ... it doesnt matter whether FA or TA is right, it is about making money?


10.10 am : KLCI up 2point MAXIS moving, finally ... Ogawa is actively traded? Excuse me ... OGAWA? Time to buy a massage chair?

11.00 am : Supermax at 5.69 with Adventa losing 2 cents. TopGlove trying to stay at 6.15 level. I m interested with Supermax if its RSI going below 30. Is it really a rubberish sector now?

YTLPower : In uptrend and trying to break 2.30 today. Leverage on its baby. Almost at overbought level, move in when correction is here. WAIT.

Jordan's : 我不是偉人

是否很古怪 要去肢解
舊情人 即使假裝好友狀態

還是肯寬恕 對我不起
未別離 花光好心地去待你

*無法死心 忘掉自私非愛人
還有私心 仍能令你為我牽掛

恕我狠心 無限大方非愛人
還有真心 才難偽裝自己遮蓋良心
餘情未了 總有記恨 我講真

難道祝福你 你更好過
我為何 必須扭曲本性做我

如要講真 忘掉自私非愛人
還有私心 仍能令你為我牽掛

恕我狠心 無限大方非愛人
還有真心 才難偽裝自己遮蓋良心
然而為愛 總有記恨 我講真

重唱 *

恕我狠心 無限大方非愛人
還有真心 才難偽裝自己遮蓋良心
從前絕配 不夠道行 變配襯

MAS : Cleared more at 2.20 as I m eyeing Supermax now. Simply like those watefalls with RSI going below 30. Still in waiting mode. MAS will fly again one day. Hope I wont miss my flight ... then.

Hai-O : Cleared for profits at 3.45. Done. It might go higher but I want to focus in tech and rubber.

SPSetia-wb : UP 13% now. Another free dinner from my friend SL who bought at 0.42? It closed at 0.535 today. Take profits at 0.58 level, ok?

KLCI closed 7 points higher - BULLISH. Are we seeing 1,400 soon? Once it reaches 1,400 I really want OUT. Still stucked with my remaining JCY and becoming a long term investor in it? How about Unisem? Ok ok ... we shall re-name tech-sector as rubbish sector since they failed to rebound today. It all rebound again tmr, I could change our views, right? Hehe

I m being sarcastic ... I asked my friend SL to grab SPSetia(knowing she or her husband are looong term investor) when XXX and YYY broker houses downgraded her!! Obviously, it went below RM4. Instead of buying mommy, she bought her babies. That was looong time ago, actually. Today is the time to SELL ... from 0.42 to 0.54 ... excuse me? They have the patient to WAIT ... now is time to reap.

The same XXX and YYY broker-house analysts(I noticed that analysts started with ANAL ... hmm, full of shit) will UPGRADE SPSetia and might SUDDENLY said about some good piece of optimism such as they are the leader in property-sector to their venture in Vietnam SUDDENLY giving them huge profits! Haha. BS.

So, let us talk about DOWNGRADED stocks? The current rubbish and rubberish sectors will be treated as trash and the rally for them is OVER, at least for the time being. Therefore, to make the ANALysts look like working hard, they will tell you that Western Digital collapsing and the mere existance of JCY is on thin wire. Oppsss ... die la die la ... JCY will becoming next Kenmark or LCL? HOw now?? CUT CUT CUT ??

Sorry to any analysts reading my blog?? Hey, this is just a novice market junkie frustrating with your analysis, ok? No point reading my blog as you wont find your research here, right?

Tell me ... HOW can two ANALysts from XXX and YYY given such a different reports on MAS?? WHO should I believe??


1 comment:

kvh said...

I think storm is over . The sky is clear some time later .