Monday, May 31, 2010



KLCI : Showing a double-bottom formed in OCT08 and MAC09. Click the chart to enlarge. Currently, still in downtrend.

Trading Lesson : Trends

1. Buy UPTREND stocks and avoid trading against the trend.
2. Make TREND your friend.

Generally, look into the trends of MARKETS : S&P, DOW, HSI and/or KLCI.

How to see UPTREND-ing stocks?

Click on charts : IF the charts showing that it is going HIGHER, it is said to be in UPTREND. Draw a MA(20) line, and it should show a UPTREND line.

Also, we will see Higher Highs(HH) and Higher Lows (HL).

That is an easy exercise : See big brothers like DOW and HSI first. Then KLCI. If the markets are going higher and higher, it is UPTRENDING. Generally, the index-stocks will move in tandem(logical-la, right?). And most of other stocks should be in similar trend.

TEH : At the moment, we are in DOWNTREND. KLCI brokedown MA(20) in the mid of May, down the MA(200) one week ago. At the moment, after two BULL DAYS in KLCI, up 20 points + up 15 points today, KLCI rebounded above MA(200) today. But, it has NOT confirm that the trend is reversing. Technically, it rebounded due to most of stocks are OVERSOLD, and MA(200) is the support now. This rebound may be SHORT-live.

Terms : MA(20) is a short-term trend and MA(200) is a long term trend.
TEH
ZELAN : This is a 4-year chart. It reached its LOW today. The double top seen in 2007, at prices above RM6.00. Certainly buy-n-hold doesnt hold for this stock, right?

Click to read its BAD report to know WHY it dived. CLICK HERE

The increased huge LOSSES is one crucial important point why an INVESTOR should not buy-n-hold on this stock. Sound logical? Nah ... mostly do not do HOMEWORK on the fundamental of a stock or bother to know technical analysis. I m learning both. So, FA + TA, Zelan is NOT a buy.

Monday ... it is Day 4 of Chart Nexus but I m working today. Well, I could not take leave to attend the course as students are having exams next week. So, I will only join the CN Day 3 and 4 again in next class or whenever I m free during holiday.

For those believer of BUY and HOLD, do READ :

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2010/05/buy-hold.html

PPB : A good stock to buy-n-hold besides BJToto, PBBank, Genting and YTLPower.

For me, I will buy and hold on BJToto and MAS. Even that I will be glad to trim my holdings when these shoot up higher in fast pace.

KLSE is to open ... buying and selling activities will be seen again. I do hope to load off some E&O I bought on Thu, for technical rebound purposes. Other than that, I will not be buying anything much as I need time to re-learn my TA which I hv attended for the past 2.5days. APPLY APPLY APPLY is my next move ...

Will you turn back the clock if you could?





9.50 am : KLCI up 8 points, but E&O not moving. GPacket was a very good buy at 0.82 but selling at 0.90 is a bad exit. It is at 1.03, touched 1.07.

11.05 am : KLCI still up 7 points but E&O no strength to move further higher, in red now. See if reach my stop loss, cut and lose a dinner.

Zelan : Diving and losing 10% now. Zelan is another stock where we might wont see it recovering ever since the founder sold his stakes, if I m not mistaken. But it is still related to Syed and MMC. Why is there a sell-down today?

12.15 pm : KLCI up 13 points, with Sime and Maxis lagging behind. E&O recovers from the early profit-taking and at 0.89 now. Clearing at 0.910.

4.05 pm : KLCI up 14.4 points. I dont know about the counter called Kenmark, which down 68% and suspended as it is the most actively traded stock today. Hope none of us holding to Kenmark?

4.25 pm : KLCI up 15 points, E&O up, at 0.895 but my queue at 0.91 will not be done.

BJToto and MAS rebounded. Yes, I m hoping they will move lower for me to pick of of them. BJTtoto below 4.10 and MAS below 1.80 will be nice. Wait ... for world cup to start, no one will be interested to be in markets, then we BUY BUY BUY.

5.10 pm : KLCI up 15.85. Bull is running ... but E&O failed to jump up. Will wait for a day or two.

10.45 pm : I was going through E&O quarterly statement(download from Bursa Malaysia). There are marks of improvements, fundamentally. For a non-finance person like me, look into few basic values : EPS : (6.64) to 4.12 now. Loss RM44m to Profit RM44 m. Increased in total assets. Net Cash and cash equivalent increased.... etc etc. Then, one may wants to read the Annual Report(AR) to understand a little of the current businesses.

Do you see the propects of the sector? Do you see the good prospect in the company's fundamentals? And will that contribute to higher EPS(lowering the PE)? How about its dividend payments, if any? Hundreds of questions to ask .... BUY and HOLD?

TEH

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Chart Nexus : Day 3

MacD : Moving Average Convergence Divergence

MACD crossover : Buy and Sell signal

MACD Histograms : Earlier Buy and Sell signal

Bullish divergence and Bearish divergence.

Scomi : Bullish Divergence, Bullish Harami. Counter-trend trading.

Risk Management : Max loss per trade is 2% of trading loss.

For example : I bought E&O on Thu at 0.88 x 10,000 = Rm8,800. That is the capital. 2% of RM8, 800 = RM176. Plus the fees, stamp duties etc etc ... I will only allow 2 cents of loss. Hence, automatic sell at 0.86 or 0.865? As for profits, let it run ...?

No no no . That is NOT what they meant.

Say I have RM50k capital/cash in hand to trade. Allowing 2% of RM50k = RM1,000. So, Say my E = Rm3.23 with S = 2.90, the our risk per share = RM3.23 - RM2.90 = 0.33.

So, the number of shares purchase = RM1000/0.33 = 3,000 units. Hence, total capital used = 3,000 units x 3.23(E) = RM9,630.

Understand? Good ...

2.40 pm : After lunch - Candlestick

Note : Hmm .. for those of my coursemates who started to know me in person, PLEASE READ MY DISCLAIMER. I may sound good in the class, but I m NOT. LOL.

I have to go. Time to be with family.

5.00 pm : One of my coursemate asked me about Maxis he is holding. Since he decided to offload his holding, then the short rebound will be the best time, then. He got it cheaply from Maxis la. Take profits and to buy higher yield stocks or some growth stocks?


TEH
It is Sunday ... I m attending a class instead of being with my family. But, I dont think so I could concentrate today, so I m off after lunch. I have dinner with family tonight.

What about NOW?



TEH

Saturday, May 29, 2010

HSI : My drawing is so terrible. Haha

Chart Nexus : Day 2

10.45 am : Chart Formations

Double bottom : Down trend reversal

Time frame : at least 3 months

Example : Affin and BJcorp taken.

First low less or equal to second low. Volume during First Low(bottom) formed with HIGHer volume compared to Second Low(next bottom) It is forming a "W". Breaking through resistance(formed in between the two bottoms) with HIGH volume ... I will post some charts with these formation when I m done with my homeworks.

HSI is forming a double top, break current support, look at 17.5 k level and 15k level as the strong supports. 15k level was the resistance of the double bottom formed at end-2008 to apr-2009.

KLCI might be forming a head-n-shoulder(higher chances) that a break of current support, I pointed it out to the trainer when someone asked 'should she sells the stocks she is holding now at a loss before it dives'. The likelihood(higher PROBABILITY la) for a short-term rebound is higher as STOCKS are OVERSOLD, ok? If you are NOT in market or out of KLSE, good for you. Do yourself a favour ... go and watch world cup. If you are free and got some money to spend, fly to South Africa. Haha. But if you are deep into markets, CUT during a short term rebound before a deeper correction. Otherwise, if you have the holding power, then prepare to BUY more when it forms bottom(s).

Cheap will go cheaper? I m imagining the head-n-shoulder, with stocks to rebound for 1-2 weeks, before decided to watch World Cup ... and let it dives ... how low KLCI could go in Aug or Sept? Will try to draw the charts later ... hey, I m re-learning the theories I have read and at least I m trying to APPLY it. I will always 'disturb' my trainer for their technical helps.

12.20 pm : The more I speak to investors/traders/punters around, the more I m convinced that majority of them do not use FA or TA. PA = Punting Analysis or HA = Hope Analysis. I was talking to a retired lady who is attending CN course because she has nothing to do, and 'playing' with stocks in KLSE(using more than RM100k, ok? WOW) buying some stocks for the 'fun' of it? Or was it?

If we are stock markets without KNOWLEDGE, no FA or TA ... no knowledge about Economics or Businesses, what are the chances in our punting? If we think it is 50-50, that is WRONG. Why? Because we will over-reacts and emotions in play.

Triangles : Ascending vs Descending triangle.

Ascending Triangle : WCT.

2.20 : After lunch.

Descending Triangle : KNM and Ruberex as example.

4.30 pm : Flag and Pennant. Time frame : less than 1 month. Declining Volumes when flags or pennants are forming.

5.30 pm : Trends, Chart Formations and Indicators, in that order.

5.45 pm
: Moving Averages(MA) : MA20, MA50, MA100 and MA200. Yes, it is a lagging indicator.

TEH
DOW down by 50 points.

8.05 am : DOW down 122 points but still maintained above 10k psychological level.

Today I will be learning more about Chart formations, Moving Average(MA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence(MacD).

Knowing is one thing, apply is another. So, I will make sure I m more discipline to use it technically when I want to trade using TA.

Time Frame : As many of the aunties/uncles there trying to learn TA(in four days? wow!), I hope they could understand that it takes TIME for them to learn, TIME for a chart to form, TIME for them to wait for some significant indicators to show what we should be doing. Now, many of them will NOT be trading, many of them will NOT use the charts extensively to buy/sell, as many of them going for the TA class for WRONG reasons!! That is too bad ... if they think the classes will give them some tips or some guarantee on what stocks to buy. The trainer needs to tell them about TIME FRAME ... as a double top/bottom, for example does not form in a week or even a month. It takes time ...

TEH : I have no intention to teach or share with any of my coursemates here as I m here to learn. But I have a 'novice' in markets interested to learn from me. Hmm ...

Have to go for classes ... and will show few charts I m drawing now. I do some homework last night. Hmm ... TIME is what I need as I m so occupied with so many other things to do!

9.45 am : Classes yet to start while we are playing some nice old songs such as by Emil Chow, Alan Tam ... to Aerosmith

S&P - Support at 1,045, Resistance at 1,200

Faber now thinks the stocks are oversold in the near term on extreme negative sentiment towards the euro and North Korea, but there’s strong support around 1,045/1,050.

From a seasonal perspective, a summer rally in June/July could be expected, with a lot of resistance around 1,200/1,220, followed by a downturn and bottoming out in October/November. By then, another round of stimulus could come in and prop up equities as a stronger U.S. dollar and bond market would give the Fed ammunition to ease the monetary policy.

TEH : So, wake me up when September ends?

(Note: In a separate interview with Tom Keene on the same day, Faber says S&P could fall another 15%.)


HKSE's top volume

China Ppt Inv
Icbc
Bank Of China
Ccb
Jia Sheng Hldgs
Titans Energy
CCT Tech Intl
Fulbond Holding
Richly Field
Epi (Holdings)
Asia Energy Log
PetroChina Co Ltd
Ching Hing-New
Petroasian
CNOOC Ltd
Smic
Sinopec Corp
King Stone Engy
Lenovo Group
Newtimes Energy

TEH : The bolds are those in my stalk list.

Waterfalls : The heavyweights that I like are PPB and SIME. With market sentiments are negative, coupled with BAD news, these two big-boys are pulling KLCI with them. BUY during BAD news ... but due to FURTHER correction expected(unless if you are bullish that markets are reversing soon, do not hesitate to BUY these two), I shall wait ... I do not buy big-boys but I do like BAD news. I do like BAD market sentiments. Without these factors, we could not get in the market to buy it cheaper.

SIME : On Wed, RSI was at 14 level. Ridiculous. On Thu, SIME rebounded, up 3% and KLCI up 20 points. RSI hooked up at 30 now. Yes, enter on Friday, of coz ... hold for short term rebound. IF one to buy during the opening on Friday at 7.50, there are chances to get that 10% that I like. It closed at 7.83 now ... breaking RM8, we shall see some traders coming to buy. Then, do SELL when it near 10% profits.

PPB : RSI was at 13 level on Wednesday. Ridiculous!! On Thu, PPB closed at 15.50. RSI still at 25, if sentiment is good next week ... can nimble and average up as markets get better. But again, do SELL for profits if you are BEARISH in coming few weeks.

PBBank : RSI showing oversold. The last time we seen this level was back to the dive in Mac 2009. Good to enter? Resistance at RM12, in the midst of bearish views of markets, it will not be able to break RM12 with high volume. So, at 11.40, there is no much upside space left before it re-test RM12 again. RM10.90 is the next support. So, BUYING at below RM11 is logical, technically.

Parkson : At 5.23, it touched RM5.00, a psychological level for Parkson. If you have the historical prices, Parkson was at RM20 in the height in 1997, before it dived to RM1+ wow ... such waterfall could not be found as this is global financial crisis, not Asian. So they said. At RM5, level, it came up from RM2.50 level in Oct 2008 and went up to RM6 recently before retracing. Forget about RM20, ok? At the more recent height at 2007, it reached almost to RM10 ... so, at RM5, is it undervalued??

Sime, PPB and PBBank ... if rebound will bring KLCI higher, and that might give 'false' sign that we are in recovery in markets. Hence, we need to watch how global markets re-act to many more bad news from the Europe.

KLCI really needs to come lower to attract bargain buyers. Many are in side-line ... and prefer to watch or bet in football games.

From The Edge

NEW YORK: Stocks fell on Friday, May 28, capping off their worst month in over a year as a downgrade by Fitch of Spain's credit rating reignited worries about euro-zone debt issues.

The downgrade was the latest setback in a month in which the S&P 500 fell more than 8% on concerns the euro-zone debt woes would escalate into a global financial crisis.

"It definitely spooked the market, no doubt about it," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager for National Penn Investors Trust Company in Reading, Pennsylvania.

"Up until now it's been mostly Greece and the threat of Spain and Portugal and Ireland. With Fitch actually downgrading Spain, it seems as if it is no longer a hypothetical, the contagion is now real."


TEH

Friday, May 28, 2010

Chart Nexus : Day 1

What I m learning at the moment:-

1. Profits vs Losses : Profits mean gain money, losses mean lose money. Nett Profit = Profit - Losses.
2. Long vs Short : Long is buy now, sell later. Short is sell first, buy later.
3. Tools : Technical vs Fundamental Analysis. Also mentioned Astrological Analysis, Luck Analysis and Hope Analysis.
4. Type of charts : Line, Bar and Candlestick. White vs Black cnadle.
5. Trends : Uptrend vs Downtrend. Higher low, higher high vs lower low, lower high. Consolidation = sideway, no certain direction.

So, far it is still basic. Hope those in this room(20 of others) could follow so far and LEARN to use them gradually, in stages. My 'neighbour' is dozing off ... perhaps too basic for him?

11.55 am

6. Supports vs Resistances : Buy at SUPPORT or when break above RESISTANCE

Support : Major and Minor. Resistance turns support.

Resistance : Major and Minor. Support turns resistance. Example : TA : at 0.66 and 0.68.

2.20 pm : after lunch

7. E, S and P

E = Entry
S = Stop-loss
P = Profit target

Reward = P - E and Risk = E - S

Ratio : Reward/Risk > 1.00. Hence, reward > risk, mathematically.

Faber and Measat being used as example for support/resistance discussion

8. Volume :High and Low volume reacts with stock prices. Interesting as I do look into Volumes. To me, volumes are fuel to a stock. No volume, no fuel ... cant move. That explains why I will not like to buy those 'dormant' stocks, without much volumes. TA will not work well for stocks with LOW volumes. Do they know that? If you use Faber, Unisem or Measat ... these are actively traded stocks. So, DO NOT buy those low volume stocks as it is not-liquid. Want to sell also cant.

4.55 pm : OMG, someone interrurted and saying he doesnt anything much and ask the trainer to SLOW DOWN. Arrghh ... can these people understand that it that HOURS DAILY to learn and not in 4-days to learn everything? Sigh ... I m with a group of losers around. Hmm ... perhaps he could PAY me for tuition and I will only charge him RM150 per hour, personal tuition, ok?

TEH
E&O : 4R1G, rebounded from 0.840. At 0.88 now. RSI hooked up, from 21 to 31.

Marc Faber : BUY oil stocks? BP??






DOW up 284 points ... green again. Yippee ... I sold GPacket and bought E&O @0.88 before market closed. BJToto rebounded ... as I m viewing at it at 4.15 again and MAS still above 1.90. Another round of selling expected next month going into football fever ... c'mon Malaysia, you could do it. Malaysia boleh ... hope they could enter the final this time. *piak* ...

hey, they were not even in Thomas Cup final. we are talking about football, ok? Currently we at position about 150 in the world!! Haha .. FAM is a joke, a mockery and also a money-corrupt with political monkeys holding to all the top posts. We could never be able to beat Brunei anymore? Hmm ... give the the benefit of doubts, they beat Thailand the other day, remember? Let us watch the World Cup without Malaysia, the best footballing nation?!

9.35 am : Chart Nexus Day 1

I m VERY surprised that there are so MANY of them here, about 20+ per class. Wow ... RM4.5 k x 20 = RM??? per class. Hey, I want to teach Technical Analysis too ... so many uncles/aunties around. Do they know what are they attending? Hmm ...

My trainer is a young man. Yes, these people are VERY technical, theoritically. Hmm ... I will share with you a few software training courses I attended, and I will be VERY surprise if they know what it is and applying in in their tradings!! Err ... trade or invest? Decide.

9.45 am : It supposed to start 9.00 but it is 9.45 am now, they are playing us this nice song by Celine Dion.





SHORT : Sell first, buy later.

10.50 am : HSI up, KLSE close today as I m attending Chart Nexus(CN) course. Qinfa at 2.25 now, up 6% and many more green after DOW up to almost 300 points. Do you think KLCI will move higher on Monday? Using my punting-analysis(PA), I bought into E&O for that reason ... DOW to go up last night and tonight, KLCI up 20 points yesterday with some follow-through on Monday. So, I will take profits if I could get 2 cents up from 0.88, say 0.90. How much do I profit? A dinner!! But, if it goes against me ... I will cut cut cut, yet again.

E&O : Formed 4R1G ... so? I bought tho no buying signals from indicators. No TA or FA ... it is PA, then. Lets hope it will close higher on Monday so that I could recover some dinners, k? LA = Luck Analysis in play now ...

What are my chances that KLSE will go up on Monday, and E&O could rebound to 0.90 and above? Is it 50-50 as in what punting is? Flip the coin, please.

12.10 pm : HSI up 350 points with many move more than 5% up. Geely at 2.80, I m looking at 2.50 level.

Angang Steel : It touched MAJOR support at HKD10, and at HKD11.50 this morning before retracing to 11.10 now. I m listening to type of supports : Minor and Major supports. So, I m using Angang as an example now, while my trainer explaining the terms.

3.20 pm : HSI up 400 points ...bull is running again. Is it a strong bull or just a cow? Hmm ...

Unisem : Strong support at 2.60. If breaks, RUN RUN RUN ...

10.50 pm : DOW down 70 points, I m watching BP as it is moving down again by 4% now, after rebounded from its new low at USD40.61. It is at USD43.4 level now. If you convert that to MYR, it is expensive. BUT in terms of valuations, it is cheap at the moment. Cheap may go cheaper.

I told my wife that I do know most of the things I listened to in Day 1 and hope I could get to learn something I DO NOT know or refine my strategies. The most important thing I could get from CN is a platform to share with traders alike on their views about a particular stock, in the view of TA. CN's forum is one of the platform. Another is the club's meeting which I hope to know more professional traders. There are at least 80% of them there are NOT traders or good in TA. So, I need to break free from the majority, which are 'lost'.

Then, I also told my wife that I will want to be a trainer with CN or such ... perhaps, coach in my own personal ways. So, lets get to know more of them there and see if anyone


TEH

Thursday, May 27, 2010

DOW down another 70 points, going below 10k level.

KLCI up 2 points, GPacket green again ... at 0.890 now. I will trim some that I bought at 0.820 first. Wait to clear all as football fever is here ...

GenM going down, GenS going up? Hmm ...

9.35 am : GPacket done at 0.895 moments ago, another part queueing at 0.91. Why clearing GPacket? Any rebounds giving us excuses to clear, take profits as markets overall is still in downturn. We are spoilt with choices now. I still like rubber, just not time to buy anything much yet.

GPAcket : The buying was so strong that it shot up to 0.95, even my last 0.94 done. No more GPacket for me ... and going back into many those REDS.

12.35 pm : KLCi up 9 points!! BUY BUy Buy buy? or BYE? It is bye-bye to me ...

GPacket shot higher, at 0.975 now. Wow ... I have taken profits too early again. Sometimes, I bought too early, and sell too early. Hmm ... this is the dilemma of a trader. But, I will still stick to my 10% profits rules as market sentiments do not change over night. More downward seen ... so, for such a strong rebound of 14% up in a day, time to SELL. Will you sell or waiting for RM1 or RM1.20 now? Greed will take over ... I will rather let it go and WAIT for next retracement.

Punt : GPacket-wa at 0.46 done. Will wait to see if can sell or buy more. It moves up > 20%.

AnnJoo-wb : Still thinking of clearing those I punted at 0.545. I still have paper-loss which failed to clear and bought at 0.75 level.

Focus now will be at those still sitting at a low and oversold territory. I will discpline enough NOT to buy anything and preserve the cash. I m looking into HKSE, oversold.

2.40 pm : GPacket-was done at 0.48 for short trades. Thanks for the dinners. It is at 0.49 now, and GPacket reaching RM1. Yeah ...

3.10 pm : Grabbing back GPacket at 0.98. Another queue at 0.96. Getting greedier? Will it be done? It reached RM1 moments ago. GPacket and its baby are one of the most active counters today.

3.20 pm : Cancelled all queues. Good trades on GPacket(wa). Looking at LionInd at 1.50 now. Now, need to relax ... and watch football.



Yes, dont give up IF you are stucked in the markets due to your mistakes. Do not give up if you are losing 60% of your capital. Instead, learn to trade or invest better in future. The beatings might be tough and painful ... but dont give up ... because ... tough times do not last, tough men do.


TEH

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

DOW rebounded but still in red. KLCI might rebound a little today before taking another diving level next week or so?

Last Night(re-mix) : P Diddy ft Keyshia Cole

This is one dance hits that my son like. Now, Keyshia Cole done all the singing but P.Diddy got the name for this song. It should be by Keyshia Cole, ft P.Diddy. It is quite common that a person worked hard but another person gets the 'name' as he/she is at 'higher' level. You dont expect our top governments officers dirty their hands to care for rakyat, right? Lembu punya susu, sapi dapat nama? Hmm ...



Taken from my facebook

When I born, I black
When I grow up I black
When I go in Sun, I black
When I scared,I black
...When I sick,I black
When I die ,I black

And you White fellow
When you born you pink
When you grow up you white
When you in Sun,you red
When you cold, you blue
When you scared, you yellow
When you sick ,you green
and when you die, you grey

And you calling me coloured?

TEH : Stop discriminations. If we are 1Malaysia, then why are we still speaking about colours of our skins? I do not care if you are Malay, Chinese, Indians or whatever ... no barriers for HUNGER. We all get hungry irrespective of our colours.

GPacket : Am I buying too early again? I shall clear in a slightess of rebounds, if any.

Sapcres : Reached my cut-loss level at 1.90 yesterday and I have to cut it off. Lost a dinner. OUCH. Will grab back.

AnnJoo-wb : At 0.55 level, will cut it off if goes below 0.52, and buy more below 0.50.

LionInd : I will like to grab at 1.20?

MAS : Going to 1.80, my buying level soon.

9.10 am : UP 8 points in early trade as some bargain hunters are back. Any rebound will see us clear more of our holdings going into JUNE, the World Cup ... GOOOAALLL.

IGB : going below 1.60 now. In RED today. No buying till JUNE, ya.

WaSeong-wa : At 0.27 level, I will dare myself to buy at 0.20 level as markets diving.

11.05 am : KLCI shed some points, still 3 points up. Not for long, though. After 25 points dive, we do expect some rebounds but the BEAR is still very much in large.

11.55 am : Lunch.

WHY we should be selling for profits and not buy-n-hold

Case study - Qinfa : This is a coal counter I bought into 7-8 months ago. It started with energy stocks I m relating to. COAL is still the main energy source in China and will be for another 5-10 years. Anyway, I bought in Sept or Oct, anticipating recovery of the demands in coal, also the coming winter in Dec(in China, of coz). PE is single digit then. And it was a newly listed stock in HKSE. When it went below its IPO value, I started to stalk it ... and with intention to BUY. I hesitated at first as markets was going through some corrections, which as we knew NOW, was a mild one.

I bought at HKD2.05(need to check my previous posts to know the exact date!) for 20k units. At that time, MYR vs HKD at 0.465. So, 2.05 x 0.465 x 20,000 was my INVESTMENT into Qinfa. I caught a knife, actually as it went lower to 1.85 level, I think.

Then, as I was shifting to KL and need cash, I thought of selling it off(at 2.15 at that time). I sold it to my aunts half, instead ... convincing them that it will give profits and the company wont go collapse! I know i will benefit them, but it is very OK to benefit our 'moms', right?

So, I told them that I planned to clear it at 2.60, for a near 30% profits. Minus off the fees etc etc, it will be still be above 20%. MYR vs HKD was lower, at 0.405, some forex losses incurred too.

So, I waited for winter ... CNY was over but it only moved after CNY. Finally it reached 2.60, and planned executed. 2.60 sold. done. Then, it moved lower as RSI showing overbought level and time to take profits. Say I m the buy-n-hold, I will be glad as it shot up to HKD3, from 2.40 level ... wow!! That was just last month!! ONE MONTH ago. So, those buy and hold will be jumping and said : See? I told you so, FA is everything. PE single digit where to find? But at 3.00, PE around 20 now.

As we see China's markets retracing, HSI going below 20k level ... nothing is spared. Cheap will go cheaper ... and those stocks which shot very high, very fast are the ones diving in very fast pace. Qinfa was at HKD2.50 in 2 weeks ... and ... I started to place it back highly into my stalk list. BUY at 2.00 level again, I told myself.

Days ago, it reached HKD2.00 ... and I have a wait and see stance. HKD1.80(same as my MAS, but in RM la) will be nice ...mind you, I m actually waiting for further dive in markets before I move into Qinfa again. I have released Qinfa for 3 months or so now, time to be with her soon... kinda miss her?

Guess what is the price now? HKD2.00. So, those buy-n-hold do not gain after 7 months, tho it shot to HKD3.

Guess what the price will be when this correction is over and the so-called economic recoveries is said to be sustainable AGAIN? Your guess is as good as mine. But if you have the tarot-cards telling you that Qinfa could bottom at HKD1.05, let me know, please. I will wait and wait ...

10.55 pm : KLCI down 1.19 at the end of day. It was up 8 points in the morning as some bargain buying seen.

IGB : Touched 1.49 before closed at 1.54, and still shed some 6% today. Game over for property stocks? IGB is one in my stalk list and my next shopping destination next weekend with my family will be at Mid-Valley. Perhaps, buying at 1.25? I dont know ... many are oversold now.


TEH

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Care to be Charitable?





More INFO : http://www.kechara.com/ksk/

Kechara Soup Kitchen(KSK)

I have not been so charitable since I m in KK. I was actively involved in NGO's and supported their causes when I was in KL. Today, I m finally back to KL and wanted to contribute, in small manner, whichever I could. There are hundreds of NGOs and Charitable groups these day. I still remember SALAM, when I left KL ... I left SALAM.

Ok, here is ONE charitable group giving those homeless food and shelther. I m still reading more about the group and trying to contact the person in charge, Justin Cheah. What do I have in mind?

I m going to help my students to prepare for the coming semester exams. Many of my students are from privileged and well-to-do family. Most of them certainly 'richer'(money sense) than me. But, I want to be 'rich' in my own sense, the joy of being charitable. So, I will have extra classes with them on some Saturdays, which I will place a 'donation' box in front of the lecture room. Before I start the class, I will PROMOTE "KSK". Awareness will do my students good. At least they will see the other extrme tail of the Normal Distributions I m teaching them. I m trying to get Justin to see if a VOLUNTEER could come to collect some money ... and that would helps too. Otherwise, I might be seen as 'makan' the money for myself?! Arrghh ... that reminds me of my past experiences where I was accused of mis-used the money I collected(for the NORTH KOREAN funds).

Now, do you know why I m still in teaching line? Besides loving my teaching of Maths, I enjoy seeing these youngsters getting themselves involve in doing some charitable works. IF some day I have made a little change in the way they see world, I will be glad. :-)

What do I get in return?

Satisfaction is invaluable!! Education is a journey ...

TEH

MAS : This is posted in CN(Chart Nexus)'s forum. Game over for MAS, written there by one of the main kind contributor. I m seeing it as time to accumulate. But, my target level at 1.80 has not changed. It is at 1.91 this morning.

DOW took a 100 points dive in the last hour of trading, but still managed to stay above 10,000 level. Someone in Wall Street claimed that DOW could go to 8,800 level before World Cup. Hmm ... wonder how he derived the 8800 level? I m waiting for June 4th, as someone claimed DOW will take a huge plunge. How he is so positive of the date, 4th June? We were told that NO ONE could time the markets ... or can we?

I dont think so we could ... logically, markets are going through a correction. No doubt that it might has some technical rebuonds, but overall .... it is a BEAR. If you want to BUY some of your favourite counters, it is about time to BUY as many in oversold territory. Some at the lowest RSI level never seen in past 2 years, some at its new lows. If you check the HKSE's babes, there many more in such a situation. China government is tightening the credit, so they said. The China property-bubble is bursting soon? Whatever reasons or excuses to exit the markets there.

So, is it time to BUY in KLSE?

Firstly, the PE of our BURSA is higher comparable to regional markets or nearing its historical high value. We all know that funds being used to artifically supported the markets. Whether it is directive from Najib, that is certainly political motives behind it. BN lost Sibu seat, mind you. With the global markets retracing(due to Greece's news or whatever excuses they are using to lock in profits), how long can KLCI stands alone? Yup, it is FINALLY having a more decent correction at the moment, but I feel it still have some downside to come ... so, in terms of valuations of overall KLSE, we are still 'expensive'. Why would any foreign funds moving into KLSE? Stop horning on the steps Najib or our SC are taking to lure more foriegn investors.

Secondly, certain sectors might be running ahead of its fundamentals. Speculators have been pushing the prices up so highly on the base of 'good news' or anticipating good recoveries/demands. For example, RUBBER stocks. No doubt that I do like the whole sector too, but does the prices we are paying now justified?

Take green-sector in China as another good example. Many investors are 'hot' with the sectors and investors have been placing huge bets that the sector will benefit hugely from the supports of the China governements. Well, China gov may pledge to make China a less polluted country and make it 'greener', but but ... implementation is another different story,right?

So, due to the highly anticipated recoveries in global economies overall, stock markets globally have been shooting higher. They said markets normally move 6-9 months ahead of the economies, I wonder if the ONE YEAR bull-run justified? Hence, the Greece or World Cup or what-so-ever news are being used to take profits.

In KLSE, there are more downside risk at the moment. Rubber or Tech sectors might take some beatings, but that is healthy. I will like to buy into rubber-stocks again and I hope for a HUGE correction in the sector. At PE 15-20, it is kinda expensive.

Thirdly, to me ... it is about time to BUY. There might be a short-term rebound soon as many stocks are OVERSOLD. So, technically(and logically) speaking, there will be a rebound. Whether we are hitting the bottom of the correction now, we dont know. Can we REALLY time the market? If not, then ... those with RSI @ 20 level, can buy ar? It is better being an investors as such correction giving us opportunity to accumulate more of our fav stocks.

Votality is the game now, as they said. Such votality is a heaven for short term traders, and those good one could benefit hugely. That explain why I m paying $$$ to attend Chart-Nexus course this weekend, in the midst of my VERY busy schedule. Using a more appropriate TA, I do think a person who is discipline and good in seeing these indicators will benefit from the ... magic of TA. If TA is really tak-ada-akal, count me in the statistics. I m paying MONEY to learn the TA, certainly I m tak-ada akal.

Queue : BUY : GPacket 0.845 and AnnJoo-wb 0.550. SELL : Sapcres 2.10.

I will be too busy to be around the whole day. I wore RED yesterday, I m wearing PINK today.

11.50 am : KLCI down 15 points!! GPacket done at 0.845 moments ago. Looking into my fav LionInd as it is moving below 1.40 soon.

HSI down 500 points!! Introducing Great-Wall Tech(0074.hk) which diving 10% this morning. Game over for tech-stocks?



3.05 pm : KLCI 25 points down. WOW. Err ... a mere correction or market reversal?
Hmm ...

3.40 pm : HSI down by 700 points!! Queueing more of GPacket at 0.820.

4.15 pm : What a BEAR day. GPacket done more at 0.82. Wait and see ... LionInd coming to 1.20? Sapcres going below 1.90. Wait ...

AnnJoo-wb done at 0.545 too. Today is a buy day. I m slowly moving back in and any technical rebounds will see me clearing. The selling pressure will be still there for a while.

KLCI closed at 1250 level. So, we shall be seeing 1,200 level again soon?

PPB and Wilmar : These two babes in 'bad' news now, and coupled with bad market sentiments, these are HIGHLY recommended for investors. I might ask my aunts to BUY(I will buy on behalf) PPB and/or Wilmar.



10.50 pm : DOW down another 20o+ points. Now ... we are seeing some fears looming. Time to sell off some GPacket and collect more at lower level? 0.75?

How about AnnJoo-wb? Sell off again, and buy at 0.40??


TEH

Monday, May 24, 2010

Monday ... collecting GPacket and AnnJoo-wb which are in oversold region. Sapcres ... watching.

7.10 am : Thinking of Waseong too. Just have to wait.

Queues : BUY GPacket at 0.845 and AnnJoo-wb at 0.560.

9.35 am : RED RED ... 20 points down. FEAR? Hmm ... think of buying. Hey, am I lucky that I did not queue, busy talking to an Economic lecturer, asking me about EURO? Can buy Euro? Ok , ok ... going to grab AnnJoo-wb since it is cheaper than my planned prices.

10.55 am : I m too erratic. I m queueing AnnJoo-wb at 0.530, after it touched 0.535, and it is at 0.560 now. As KLCI rebounds from the low, still losing 8 points, HSI up 200 points!! GPacket at 0.545 might not be done today. Overall, the markets WILL move lower, I believe. So, if I could grab some GPacket for the short techinical rebound, I will sell. At 0.85, it might go below 0.80? There is an article written on GPacket ... still make losses. Do you buy Puan's optimism?

SIME : She is the culprit for KLCI dive this morning. Musa Hitam to step down?

Tuition in KL

As I have 'officially' left KK yesterday, it is time to focus in my classes in KL, Subang Jaya to be exact. So, the next steps I should take will be :

1. Find a place nearby to give tuition
2. Promote, promote, promote!
3. Prepare for my lessons.
4. Teach well ... and get in touch with classes.
5. Expand, expand and expand.
6. Once establish, get a group of lecturers of other subjects
7. Move to larger space, get partners and start to work on the center.
8. Enlarge the circles and more promotions.
9. Employing more lecturers to take over classes, using the system I planted.
10. Do all the above in 5 years time.

TEH

Sunday, May 23, 2010

BLOODSHED - Srikandi Cintaku



Dedicated to those in markets last week, which we see some bloodshed. This is my fav number by this 'old' rock group. Enjoy.

Takdir dan Waktu (Fate and Time) by MEGA



One of my fav Malay rock band, old but gold. This is to dedicated to those who are stucked in the markets. It is FATED that the luck is not on our side, but time ... only TIME could tell if we could get out of the hole safely.

Latest from The Edge's site

NEW YORK: Volatility will be the name of the game on Wall Street this coming week, starting May 24 as uncertainty over the euro-zone debt crisis remains and investors will need nerves of steel to make bets on risky assets like stocks, according to Reuters.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index's drop this week of 10 percent from recent highs meant the benchmark index is now in a correction amid a rally that started on March 2009.

"This is a tough market. And if you don't have a strong stomach and you are not one of those people who thrive on volatility ... this is not the time you should be trading," said Randy Frederick, director of derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in Texas, Austin.

On Friday, stocks snapped a three-day losing streak as investors bought beaten-down shares including banks. But for the week, the Dow and the S&P were off around 4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 5 percent.

Analysts said economic data due next week and investors' speculation that equities may have fallen too much could lead to a rebound in the market. But with the downside momentum strong on anxiety over European debt issues, the market can easily turn and create increased volatility.

BIGGER SWINGS?

On the week, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index .VIX, Wall Street's favorite yardstick of investor anxiety, rose 30 percent.

The measure of U.S. stock market volatility closed at 40.10 on Friday, down 12.43 percent, after rising as high as 48.20, the highest since March 10, 2009.

"Every bear market starts off as a correction so in this kind of environment, investors get anxious about whether this is just a correction or a start of the bear market. The unknown is what makes people uncomfortable, leading to bigger swings," said Frederick.

He said that the index could swing between mid-30s and high 40s next week.

The VIX is a 30-day risk forecast of stock market volatility. The index typically has an inverse relationship with the S&P benchmark as it tracks option prices that investors are willing to pay as a protection on the underlying stocks.

GEITHNER IN EUROPE

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will make a stop in Britain and Germany next week to discuss troubled economic conditions there en route home from China.

"Of course, there is no quick fix to the debt crisis, but the visit is at a good time. We don't know what will come out of the meetings, but it will probably be some sort of a coordinated effort to address the liquidity issue in Europe," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.

"If it shows that the worst of the financial market pressure is starting to be relieved, it will not only be good for stocks but for all risky assets."

Global markets across all assets have been pressured for months on concerns that huge deficits in Greece will spread into a wave of debt crisis in the euro zone and eventually jeopardize the global financial system.

Fear that fiscal tightening would kill the economic recovery pummeled equity and commodity prices during the week and caused investors to pay up for safe-haven U.S. government debt.

DATA IN FOCUS

Investors will look for clues on the state of the labor market when jobless claims data comes out on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose on the week that ended May 14, government data showed. The increase was the first time since early April, dealing a blow to the labor market recovery.

"The improvements that we have seen in jobless claims have flattened out recently, especially after last week. This week's data will be a major indicator of whether this is a temporary slump or a long-term decline," said Frederick.

Housing-related data will also be in focus next week. April's new home sales data on Wednesday is expected to extend the March uptrend as buyers were spurred on by the impending tax credit deadline. Sales are seen rising to 420,000 units in April from 411,000 in March.

Home prices are seen rising this year and next, though they may dip first and it will take years to recover to pre-crash levels.

Existing home sales, due on Monday, are seen rising 6.0 percent to 5.62 million units after growing by 6.8 percent in March, with forecasts between 5.42 million and 5.80 million.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index, which will come out on Tuesday, is seen declining 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, in March after a 0.1 percent dip, and increasing 2.4 percent year-over-year after a 0.6 percent rise.

"With so much uncertainty in the bigger global picture, good housing indicators can be seen as an instant trigger to a market rally next week," said Steven Hagenbuckle, founder of TerraCap Partners, a private equity fund based in New York and Florida.

On Thursday, the government will release its revised estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product. Analysts forecast a reading of 3.4 percent growth, slightly up from the first reading of 3.2 percent. - Reuters

TEH : VIX is a good indicator to guesstimate the ANXIETY level in markets. But, this is for US markets ... do they have such index for KLCI? Why not? The higher the VIX, the better to BUY.


TEH
Is this allowed in boleh-land?



TEH

Saturday, May 22, 2010

WATERFALLS : Tech-stocks


ENG : At 2.45, RSI at 32 level.

ETITech : At 0.310, RSI at 10.31 ... is it game over? Technical rebound soon as it is overly sold?


GPacket : I will like to grab more at 0.85 and below. RSI at 23 level now, and I hope it will dive further on Monday so that I could grab at 0.84 or so, with RSI at 20 level.

GTronic : At 1.44, RSI still stands at 42. Could consider at 1.30, but it is forming a descending triangle?

JCY : At 1.55, very nice level with RSI at 31 level. New IPOs not doing well?


NOTION VTec : RSI at 20.94. WOW .. I like it now. Buy at 2.58?

Unisem : BUY at support 2.57? RSI at 33, coming down to 20 will be nice as that was its RSI on Mac 2009.
TEH


12.45 pm : Maple Cafe, Damai. Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.

This is my 800th post. I started my 1st post on 8th Aug 2008. Yup, I was as raw in markets and just being hammered by the markets. It was the MAC 2008 dive, after Barisan National 'lost' their strong grips in our NON-CORRUPTED elections. Anyway, I will never see the 'high' of some of the stocks which I naively bought and cut it off with some more than 50% losses.

I need to re-checked on the stocks I bought, but some stocks still very much in mind(and heart) as those were my 'beginner' experiences.

My initial experiences

I started with Astro in Dec 2007. Mind you, Dec 2007 was the 'peak' in markets. Anything you bought sould go higher. So, what do you expect a TOTAL novice with zero knowledge about markets, finances, economics, trading ... etc ... will do? I gained a little from 'Astro" and sold it off after dividends being paid. I was obviously 'glad'.

Going into JAN-FEB ... I bought GPlus, catching the momentum as it was shooting high very fast. The trades went against me, and I burnt my little fingers. ouch. Since then, GPlus is in PN17. It will never recovers ... mind you, I cut it off 2 years ago ... and was lucky!!

Then, I bought LionDiv(was at 1.80 level), Jaks(was at 1.30 level), Ranhill(was at 2.30 level) before the election in March. I was reading extensively on trading and news related. I do not miss an issue of THE EDGE and read thoroughly every pages, even I could not understand most of what I m reading. I have ZERO knowledge, ok?

March Election's dive

The March 2008 dive is unforgetable for a novice like me!! How could I went I FINALLY sold most of my holdings AFTER the pains are too much to handle. I lost about 60% of my initial capital of RM12k. I was so confident that BN sure will win the election ... afterall , our NON CORRUPTED government will surely be transparent and making sure democracy and fairness being carried out. In MALAYSIA boleh-land, we are ALL treated equally. And we live in great harmony(that explains why so many Thais, Indons, Pinoys ... then Burmese, Vietnamese and whatever-nese coming to the boleh-land). Ok, ok ... you get my points. RAKYAT love Barisan Nasional, so I thought that BN is sure to win. Alas, the unthinkable happened. The oppositions showing strength of 'buying votes', so claimed some BN's candidates. How on earth could that actually happening? From the media(TV, papers etc etc) to every pelusuk(corner) rantau(region), we all love the CLEANEST government. NO NO ... we dont want the changes!!

Stock market in KL, also known as BURSA(bourse in Malay. By the way, in boleh-land, we do pinjam those English words and creatively translate them into Malay words!!) took a beating ... what an experience!! Do check the prices of LionDiv, Jaks and Ranhill now. It is no where near I entry prices 2 years ago, ok? BUY and HOLD?? It will not be another few years, IF POSSIBLE, for any of these counters to reach my entry prices!!

Note : It is Barisan Nasional or Barisan National? See? They borrowed the 'orang putih' words again. Orang Putih = White People?

There were great fear ... I was accumulating some bullets to re-enter markets. I m more knowledgable than I was 8 months ago ... so, I started this blog!! I never looked back since then.

The more I read, the more ways of tradings/investments plans I got to know ... more financial instruments to 'play' with. Sometimes, ignorance is a bliss.

Current corrections

So, I m reflecting on the number of times I have seen 'huge corrections' in my short 2.5years of market experiences. March 2008, Nov 2008 and Mac 2009. Since March 2009, there is no significant correction. Will the CURRECT correction be one of the huge one, making it my fourth?

Breakfast with LL(my ex-colleague)

LL : So TEH, how is thing? Market dropping very much(showing her worries)
TEH : Great ... market diving down is what we need to collect more of our fav stocks/sectors at lower prices.
LL : But, I m still in the markets.
TEH : Oh, I have been selling since the beginning of April as I dont like MAY. In fact, I cut loss further in my counter TA.
LL : So, what counters are you looking at to buy at the moment?
TEH : ... pause ... hmm ... (reluctant to answer as I m afraid she might BUY when I say the stock ABC). Ok, I m looking into HKSE's counters particularly Energy sector.
LL : How about KLSE?

Here, I will want to recall what I told her, my friend whom I tried to 'teach' a bit about markets(but failed). In general, look into sectors that depressed or lagged behind. Then, I asked her instead of answering.

TEH : Which sectors outperform KLCI? Which one? Rubber, Banking, Tech.
LL : Tech stocks?
TEH : Yes, Unisem, Notion ... JCY.
LL : How about banking? What do you think of CIMB?
TEH : Yes, KLCI moves up due to these heavyweights like CIMB, Maybank, PPBank. CIMB is linked to Najib. KLCI is correlated to CIMB. If they want to support KLCI, they buy CIMB.
LL : They?
TEH : Local funds which are puppets. CIMB is a very good counter moving forward(unless Najib's era is over).

Next I questioned her again

TEH : Which sectors is lagging behind?
LL : Property and constructions.
TEH : Yup, Plantations and O&G too.
LL : Yes, plantation. What do you think of IOI?
TEH : To me, I dont buy SIME or IOI because they are too large, too diversified and no high correlation to the palm oil prices. I prefer KLK.
LL : But, KLK is like RM16. Very expensive.
TEH : Reminding you again, we dont see a counter is expensive because of the stock prices, but its valuations and potential of profits from the appreciation of palm oil prices.

Afraid that she might jump into KLK on Monday, I reminded her what I have shared with her.

TEH : This is how we should be thinking. What sectors are lagging behind the indices and which sectors will move once the economies are brighter, one day? Look into INDICES first, not stocks. Then look into SECTORS ... and businesses/fundamentals of a company before we look into the stock that is listed. Then, we ASK ... is it time to BUY?

Suddenly, I feel that it is easier to teach, share than done. Well, because she is an INVESTOR, who have the holding power!! She really can hold. I dont.

TEH : So, palm oil prices still about 50% below its peak(RM4k), positive outloook for this commodity. But, markets at the moment are going through some corrections and NO ONE could tell how long will this take. Aim at KLK, for example. She came down fromm RM17 to RM16 now. NOT a BUY at the moment as MARKETS STILL DOWN, and in my opinions will move lower in weeks, thanks to World Cup.
LL : Which counter will benefit from World Cup?

I have not finished with KLK, actually. So, I have just checked the chart of KLK. Hmm ... not oversold yet, wait for more downside. Let it breaks the 15.96 support, and look at 15.35 support to THINK of BUYING. Do not buy even it reaches 15.35 IF markets still in downturn.

TEH : What?? Oh ... BJCorp given the licence for betting. Punters will watch football to punt. You dont think they love their country that much or Malaysians waking up in mid-nights to watch their favourite team playing, right? You dont find many STUPID and LOYAL supporter like me, k? haha.
LL : So, when can we buy a counter then?
TEH : I do look into few indicators. One of it is VIX, which I shown recently in my blog as it is shooting to 40 level now, from 15 just weeks ago!! Hmm ... I hope to see 60+ level to indicate that FEAR is around, then perhaps I might BUY into counters I m holding on.
LL : Which one?
TEH: MAS is one of them. I like depressed counters!
LL : I bought at 2.35 la.
TEH : Oh, I sold at 2.35, you didnt read my writing?
LL : I should have consulted you.
TEH : It is ok, ready to buy more at ... say, RM1.80, the level I m looking at now.
LL : I think MAS will shoot up by end of this year.
TEH : Is it? If you know, let me know ... I will buy it hugely now and wait for windfall!!
LL : Haha. Yeah, we dont know.
TEH : But, I do know I have to wait and be patient to collect more of MAS at 1.80. It is at RM2 now.
LL : I still have TM, should I take profits?
TEH : Hmm ... I dont know, you have been holding it for some time now.If YOU(not me) think markets and TM will move lower, it is only logical to sell for profits, and wait to buyback, if you still like TM. besides, TM gives dividend, right? 3%
LL : About 5%.
TEH : Oh ... ok. I m a trader, I dont buy-n-hold. Anything shooting high, I will try to sell. Many moving lower now, I want to BUY.
LL : Yeah, that should be the way.
TEH : I think so. Another sector I do like is O&G.
LL : Like Kencana and Sapcres which you mentioned in your blog?
TEH : Yes, in fact I bought Sapcres at RM2 days ago, and I do like Kencana.
LL : Kencana at 1.20, right?
TEH : No la ... Kencana at 1.30+, I think.
LL : It touched below 1.30
TEH : I have not checked that. I wont mind buying Kencana at 1.20 level. See first la, too many to buy la ...
LL : How about Scomi? I am still holding heavily on this one.
TEH : At 0.40 now, right? If you still believe in its fundamentals, buy more when it moves lower. Its low seen at 0.25-0.28, if I m not mistaken. I m looking into O&G in HKSE, actually. HSI making huge corrections now, KLSE still artifically supported.
LL : Ok ...

The above is just what Ah Pek like me speaking about stock markets. If you heard any Ah Pek talking about stock markets in kopi-tiam, it is time to SELL as GREED is around. THINK, ok?

Summary of my points

BUY depressed or lagged sectors : Plantations, O&G, Constructions or Property stocks.

Plantation : KLK is the my best pick for investors(buy and hold?) as it plays more directly on the palm oil price, if the commodity prices(expexted) move up/higher.

O&G : Kencana, Sapcres, Dialog and Alam. These are the O&G stocks that I might buy. At the moment, I do like KNM for trading.

Property : I like ... hmm ... SPSetia, the leader. At the moment, IJMLand, Sunrise and IGB. But, I still have 5k units of E&O. So, I will only collect E&O. Otherwise, I might consider SPSetia-wb or Sunway-wc.

Constructions : Jaks, Sunway and Muhibah.

Rally : Rubber and Broadband - Supermax and GPacket are my picks at the moment.

Banking : Like dividends, go for PBBank. Like GLC, go for Maybank. Like Najib and bullish on KLCI, go for CIMB. Like HL taking over Eon stories, go for HLeong. Like smaller caps, go for AMMB or Affin. If I have to choose only one, I will take AMMB.

TEH
I'm in Heaven When You Kiss Me



12.10 am : SURPRISE ... DOW recovers from early deficits and ... yippeeee ... we have rally back again. But but ... I cleared off TA and Supermax today leh. Hmm ... will BUY BUY BUY on Monday then. Yeah ... suddenly we are POSITIVE again?

12.25 am : NEP and DPTR up more than 10% now as DOW up 100 points now.

TEH

Friday, May 21, 2010

This is my last trip to KK. Those in KK who still wish to treat me a drink and chat about market, please get in touch with me as soon. I will say bye-bye to KK on Sunday.

DOW lost almost 400 points ... oh boy, market sentiments will be very bad all over and ready for another round of bashing.

RED : I m wearing long sleeves(normally short) today and it is very RED. Hmm ...

7.45 am : "polite market " : I do not think so the bear will go away till end of june/july. So, I will only starting to collect again after that. At the moment, we watch our fav sector/stocks moving lower ... :)

10.05 am : KLCI losing 20 points ... well, anything to buy? yan-yan-yan ...

Warrants

AnnJoo-wb going below 0.60, at 0.565 now.

Waseong-wa going below 0.30, at 0.275 now

BJToto-cg : At 0.08 now ... new low everyday.

I will want to write about my 'paper loss' that I m holding at the moment during weekend. Those that I failed to cut-loss or making mistakes of buying too early. Except for BJToto that is still positive, all my other portfolios are in negative territory and some in deep-water, drowning. Hmm ... I m looking to collect more of them, actually as I have been actively cut-cut and sell before MAY. Well, this year ... SELL in MAY and GO AWAY applies. So many stocks I will want to write about ... even MK going below 0.30 now. Will LionInd going below RM1, please? Or Supermax going back to RM3? Am I dreaming or ... do you think markets will DIVE? Or still staying positive that it is a mere corrections?

I posted an interview with a property buyer in China. Read those signs ... they are selling their new properties at a DISCOUNT. The property bubble in China may not sustain for long. Do you think when China over-heated economy slowing down, will it affects global markets? How about the best bourse around, KLSE?? Malaysia boleh ... or no more reasons for local funds to ARTIFICIALLY support our market??

Enjoy the world cup first, then come back to collect some of our favourites. CUT today will be too deep?? It shall go deeper, I believe.

1.15 pm : I have cleared TA and Supermax. A huge cut in TA and small gains in Supermax. I will like to move into TA again, but that depending on my funds allocations. There are too many to pick at the moment.

5.25 pm : LCCT ... flying again with AirAsia. AirAsia closed at 1.17(intraday low at 1.14) and collecting below RM1 will be nice. But, I still prefer to collect MAS. MAS closed at 1.94, inching lower due to market selling pressure.

AnnJoo : At 2.45, at oversold region. AnnJoo-wb's RSI going below 20. It closed at 0.575(low at 0.560). I think US DJIA will dive again tonight, and giving such a situation, I will want to start buying AnnJoo-wb soon ... on Monday? 0.550 level might be a good entry point. The last time we see its RSI at 15 was OCT 2008. Even on Mac 2009 dive, RSI stood at a low of 17 level.

10.20 pm : DOW was down in early trades but managed to crawl back ... VIX reached the 52-week high at 48.20 now. VIX is one indicator I will look into, to show FEAR in markets. The high the better for us to go in and BUY. Yes, the waterfalls are very strong now, and we might be catching a knife but I will like to see VIX above 60 level. S&P will NOT dive to 666 level, KLCI will NOT dive below 1000 level. IF this is a mere correction, then be prepare to ride on the coming rebound. Or will it continue to plummet, proving that this is the largest BEAR after the unexpected BULL run for a year. Is it over?

DPTR : At 1/20 now, dived from 1.40 recently.



TEH

Thursday, May 20, 2010

10.30 pm : DOW down 300 points in early trade. Guess what is up? FAZ up 8% ... bearish!!

O & G stocks are battered. SAAG at 0.095 now, cheaper than 10 cents!! Kencana continues to retrace, at 1.39 now. I might be greedy and grab some Kencana soon too. Will KLCI drop 20+ points tmr, and making it FEARFUL to be in markets? Is that so, so that I should start collecting? But but ... it is still MAY??! Ok, watch football then only come back to market?!

NEP : At 5.25, down another 10%, extremely oversold.

TEH
DOW down by 60 points. NEP at USD5.84 now. FAS vs FAZ. FAZ at 14.94, rebounds from the low at 10.78. This is a bearish sign. Wonder if anyone buying into these two? BP at 45.27, also lingering at its low. So many stocks are in oversold territories but dont know which one to BUY .. hhhmmm.

9.55 am : KLCI down by 2points.

11.30 am : KLCI slightly breathing above ... in green now. Sapcres at 2.06, and I will SELL it if it shoot higher in next two days. But, I will re-collect these O&G stocks again after the dive ... I believe the correction of 21 points yesterday is NOT over yes, we shall see KLCI below 1,300. Markets in jitter situations and many are side-lined.

AirAsia : It touched 1.18 before crawling back to 1.21 now, breaking 1.25 strong support. Hmm ... I like to grab it at RM1.00. I like MAS much more but seeing AirAsia being a penny stock is tempting. WHY? Because ... the privitisation 'news' will be out again. Tony might claim that it is under-value and want to take it private? What the offer price would be this time?

Qinfa : It is back to 2.10 ... yeah. I bought at 2.05 and sold at 2.60, only to see it shot to 3+ 2 months ago. It is back to my buying level. So, if arent we HAPPY that markets are retracing as we could grab our favourite stocks at cheaper rate? Can i get it at 1.80 please? For that to happen, I have to see HSI going below 18k/17k ... with global markets gripping with FEARS again. I will start buying at 1.80? yan-yan-yan

CWP : At 0.73(touched 0.72) losing 5% now. It is also reaching my BUY level of 0.70 and below.

12.05 pm : LUnch time as non of my queues will be done today. GPacket at 0.84, Sapcres at 1.85 and MAS at 1.85.

Comtec Solar : Reaching NEW LOWs ... at 1.34 now with RSI 18.7. Solar and green stocks are taking the beating(high PE) as markets correct. Game over for SOLAR?

Energine(1185.hk) : Well, windpower also over? It dived from HKD1+ to HKD0.70 now. RSI at 29 ... so, can wait till HKD0.50? For your info, it shot from 0.70 to 1.40 in 2-3 months!!

3.05 pm : HSI losing about 200 points now. MANY in my stalk list losing more than 10% NOW. BUY BUY BUY?? or YAN YAN YAN?? Ok ... yan-yan-yan.

KLCI losing 7 points now ...

Qinfa at 2.00(touched 1.95), CWP at 0.71(touched 0.70), Comtec at 1.28, PetroAsian at 0.89, SolarGiga at 1.16, Geely at 2.60, Strong Petro ar 1.26 ... to name a few. These babes have been enjoying good runs BUT ... time to grab some or wait for lower levels? CHEAP will become CHEAPER in this time corrections. Merely corrections or markets REVERSAL?

Sapcres at 2.09 now ... thinking of selling tmr for some small profits. Still not time to buy yet, or perhaps I m thinking of HKSE which is very nice ... KLCI will go lower after it outperform other markets.

Denway : It dived from 3,40 to 2.85, then when I saw it go move back up to 3.15 level, I queued at 3.10 but would not be done. It rebounds SO FAST ... at 3.30 now. IF I m free to watch, I will love such a day where FEAR around, I could see many losing more than 15% ... and grab some. I 'lost' the opportunities today ...

Denway Motors(0203.hk) : How often will we get to see RSI14 at 10 level, with PE at 11(well below the PE of its auto sector), stock dives more than 15%, after a huge dive of 20+% yesterday(due to the failed buyout by management. Sound familiar?). It rebounded SO FAST ... So, using simple FA, TA or whatever analysis, IT WAS A BUY at HKD3.

Housing in China




TEH

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

MAS : A good decision when I sold at 2.35. Still holding 2.5k units and it is at RM2.00 now. To BUY more at 1.85 level.

GPacket : To BUY at strong support 0.85? RSI at 20.8 now.


Sapcres : At 1.97, breaking RM2.00 support, to BUY more at 1.86 or below. RSI(14) at 21.28.

O&G : Kencana, Sapcres, WahSeong, Alam ... these are few O&G stocks that I like KLSE that diving lower. I chose Sapcres and WahSeong(thru its baby) but I like Kencana too. A little greedy as fears looming around, yet again.

DOW down another 110 points ... hmm ... any rebound in KLSE tmr is time to SELL for smaller loss? Will KLCI breaks 1,300 tmr? I m too busy to watch ... I wish to watch the nice waterfalls.

If you are buying into the counters I m buying here, be prepare as we might catch a knife as market reverses now. There is one ruling : NEVER to buy in downtrend. Make trend your friend when it is bull.


TEH
DOW down by 114 points, at 10510 level now. Crude oil price going below USD70 faster than expected. Seeing it to go further down, with gold to reach new heights.

KLSE is resilent ... time to short it?

Stalk : Sapcres, testing RM2.00 today. Technically oversold.

9.05 am : KLCI down by 2+ points ... still hanging on strongly.

WaSeong : It is losing some grounds, at 2.40 now, losing 10 cents. I have another 5k units of WahSeong-wa, and at 0.30 now. I m still waiting to collect more ... and I think I have to wait further. At 0.27, the strong support ... should I? yan-yan-yan

9.55 am : Sapcres done at RM2.00? It was not done last night.

11.10 am : Sapcres at 1.97 now. To collect more of Sapcres.

Looking into HKSE. I m tempted now. Yan-Yan-Yan.

Geely : At 2.82 level now, RSI 20, PE 14.5. Beautiful ... without these FEARS, we may not be able to move into our fav stocks. I sold it at HKD4.20 few months back.

Comtec Solar : At 1.40 level, RSI at 20, PE 38. Nice too.

Faye Wong - I Don't Want it Like This Either (王菲-我也不想這樣 )



As the title said it all .. I DONT LIKE IT THIS WAY, either. But, if markets DIVE(not merely correction, ok?) further ... I will be glad to BUY BUY BUY. Then, hold and pray?

12.15 pm : Wow ... WaSeong took a dive today, at 2.32 now. WaSeong-wa still at 0.30(touched 0.295)

12.50 pm : KLCI lost 8+ points and HSI down by 221 points.

3.55 pm : KLCI losing 17 points!! WOW I missed the selling down show. GAME OVER??!

5.10 pm : The selling PRESSURE is so so strong, nothing is spared this time. KLCI lost 21.94 points. KLCI at 1308.23 now, breaking the psychological level or 1300, we shall see the huge bear!!

So much things to write now ... but WAIT. No more buying yet.

Sapcres at 1.97 (O&G)

GPacket at 0.87 (Broadband)

TA at 0.66 (Brokers)

E&O at 0.94 (Property)

MAS at 2.00 (GLC)

BJToto at 4.45 (Gaming)

Supermax at 6.64( rubber)

AnnJoo-wb : 0.615 (Steel)

WaSeong-wa : 0.290 (O&G)

Hmm ... wait wait wait ... cheap will go cheaper?


TEH

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Faye Wong : My top ten(not in order)that I could find in youtube.

王菲 - 暗湧



王菲 - 棋子



王菲 - 曖昧



紅豆 - 王菲



王菲 - 但願人長久



王菲 - 流星



王菲-流年



笑忘书 - 王菲



雪中蓮 - 王菲



I simply love her songs and have huge collections of her songs!!

TEH
DOW recovered from the minus 180 points at a point. It closed flat this morning. As for KLSE, the only bourse bucks the trend, we might see green today. I have nothing to buy or sell. Done ... and just watch for markets ti correct further.



8.25 am : I checked on my margin a/c status and it is at negative region. So, I m hoarding on cash ... wait, wait. I will top-up the a/c by end of this month to anticipate the dive in June ... is it June 4th?

11.05 am : KLCI losing 4 points. I have a queue for BJToto-cg at 0.105. But, I m looking at Sapcres!! Yes, starting to like her again.

Comtec Solar( 0712.hk) : RSI at 20, trading at 1.45 level, it is below its IPO value at 1.80, which shot up to 2.80 level in 2 months!! After consolidating at 2.20 level for a while, it decided to DIVE. This might have more downside to go as markets gripping with fears, with crude oil below USD70 soon. But, it is definitely a good stock to play on China's green-sector for solar.

Geely Auto(0175.hk) : RSI at 23, trading at 2.92 level now. How low could it go for me to start collecting? If you read The Edge 2-3 weeks ago, a broker house recommended a BUY call. Hmm ... if you bought the next day after reading that piece of call, you are about 20% down now. I want to grab some too ... but not after JUNE. yan-yan-yan

11.55 am : KLCI losing 7 points. Time for lunch. Sapcres at 2.04, queueing at RM2.00.

4.30 pm : KLCI down 5+ points. HSI closed 200+ higher after being flat the whole morning.

10.20 pm : DOW up by 80 points.

Sapcres : RSI at 25.95, I m going to BUY soon. When is the last time Sapcres's RSI below 30? Yes, last year MAC. Will it rebound? Yes, technically very high likelihood. but due to no good sentiment of markets and also crude oil prices still retracing, there might still be some downside risk.

TEH

Monday, May 17, 2010


Just for a laugh. Haha. Where can I get this dictionary leh? (click the picture to enlarge

Monday .... busy busy busy. Anything else to trim/sell?



Adventa : Clearing my remaing 1.5k units for a loss. Will buyback or will use the funds for Supermax, using Supermax for rubber-rally.

Adventa sold at market price 3.19. Bye-bye ... need to lick the wounds again, and it will leave the scars.

BJToto : I failed to take profits at 4.62(as planned!! Amateur traders like me will never learn!). It is at 4.42 now ... will hold this one, anyway.

BJToto-cg : I've cut a deep wound at 0.13 and it is at 0.105 now. Perhaps, we should not touch call-warrants? Hmm ...

HSI is down by 400+ points, KLCI down 8+ points.

Geely below HKD3, Angang going below HKD10, ZhongWang going below HKD6, Esprit at HKD45 etc etc ... my HKSE's stalk list showing blood-spread. Tempted to move in as many at oversold level but need to be patient. Yan-yan-yan ..

12 noon : KLCI going lower, losing 10 points plus now. Oh boy ... are you in fear? If you are, then time to BUY. I think there will be more DOWN side for the markets ... going into June for world-cup football.

So, as markets sentiments are NOT good, and might turn worst if the EU didnt save Spain, Portugal and such ... time to clear more of our holdings to buy at lower level.

What should I buy this time around?

GPacket : Will start to collect below 0.90 or technically it is extremely over-sold. RSI below 20 will be good entry level?

E&O : Properties stocks are in down-down lowering level. So, I need to see when I could top up on this one.

MAS : Back to 1.90 or below will be a good level to collect.

Supermax : Keeping this one for rubber-play.

4.55 pm : KLCI recovers, but still minus 5+ points. TopGlove-cc which I bought at 0.14 and sold at 0.14 is shooting higher today, at 0.155. I changed it to BJToto-cg instead, and caught a knife. BJTtoto-cg at 0.11, and BJToto touched 4.40 this morning, but back to 4.50. Wow ... so, I m looking to punt into BJToto-cg again. ouch!

8.55 pm : HSI down 430 points(more than 500 at a point) while KLCI lost only 5 points. Yeah, KLSE is one of the BEST market around at the moment. I do wonder WHY too ... and it makes me FEAR more, of the sudden dive.

Ok, someone in Wall-street claiming that DOW and S&P will plunge on 4th of JUNE. Note the date and we shall check its validity.It is about another 2-3 weeks from now. Many have sold/trimmed their holdings, anticipating the DIVE. Dont know if it will be a bungee-jump or just another normal correction. KLCI might reach 1,400 against the global markets' directions!! MALAYSIA really boleh ... or really ar?

There are simply TOO MANY waterfalls forming now. IF 4th JUNE trigger call is correct, then BUY hugely after that. As for me, I will want to watch the World Cup, so it is SELL IN MAY and GO AWAY. By end of this month, there are MANY waterfalls which are nice for us to grab. I hope to prepare more BULLETS to shoot.



TEH