Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Within temptation- Memories

I love the music very much - this is one beautiful song. Enjoy.



In this world you tried
Not leaving me alone behind.
There's no other way.
I prayed to the gods let him stay.
The memories ease the pain inside,
Now I know why.

All of my memories keep you near.
In silent moments imagine you here.
All of my memories keep you near.
Your silent whispers, silent tears.

Made me promise I'd try
To find my way back in this life.
I hope there is a way
To give me a sign you're ok.
Reminds me again it's worth it all
So I can go on.

All of my memories keep you near.
In silent moments imagine you here.
All of my memories keep you near.
Your silent whispers, silent tears.

Together in all these memories
I see your smile.
All the memories I hold dear.
Darling, you know I will love you
Until the end of time.

All of my memories keep you near.
In silent moments imagine you here.
All of my memories keep you near.
Your silent whispers, silent tears.

TEH : For those rushing for Qing Bing this weekend, it is all memories that we kept. I m amazed how STUPID those livings could be by burning those 'mahjong sets', "Merz/BMW" and such. STOP being a hypocrite and love the one who are still alive, by your side. STOP polluting the earth for our next generation kids need to be here. STOP being STUPID.
Foreign interest may return with clarity in tariff structure, says Tenaga

KUALA LUMPUR: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD believes that foreign interest "may come back" to the company once clarity is seen in terms of government policy on tariff structure.

Its CEO Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohd Nor said foreign interest in Tenaga peaked at 28% but was now down to about 9%, with many investors exiting due to the lack of clarity in power tariff policy.

TEH : At RM8.00 level, I do believe Tenaga will have the energy to climb higher as the new tariff will be approved(somehow). RHB placed its FV at RM9.50.

"The announcement by the prime minister on the New Economic Model (NEM) that the subsidies will eventually be removed is a positive sign at providing more clarity to our industry," he told reporters on the sidelines of Invest Malaysia 2010 on Tuesday, March 30.

Che Khalib said once there was clarity in relation to subsidy and tariff pass-through formula, Tenaga should be able to attract foreign interest.

TEH : Really? The foreign investors are looking into NEM? Anything new?

"The more transparent tariff pass-through formula and removal of subsidies have to come together, as people may question who will bear the cost once the subsidies are removed," he said.

"Once the removal of the subsidy happens, the pass-through formula must be in place, if not, the industry players will have to absorb it," he added.

Che Khalib was quick to add that Tenaga "is not in a position" to absorb the cost that would come with the removal of the subsidy.

TEH : We all(rakyat) have to absorb the cost, of coz. That is what he meant, I guess.

He said he did not know when the pass-through formula would be adopted or when the government would announce a tariff review.

Nonetheless, he said the gas price in Malaysia was below the market price and would remain so even with a 10%-20% increase in tariffs. "It is still going to be below the market price. We eventually have to raise the gas price to the market price, which cannot be done overnight," he said.

Che Khalib said the tariffs would have to reflect the increase in gas price, which may be raised gradually, perhaps over a period of more than five years.

Meanwhile, Reuters cited Che Khalib as saying the utility giant would report a better profit in its second quarter ended Feb 28, 2010, after electricity demand bounced back strongly from a year ago.

Tenaga saw a 13.8% increase in power demand in the second quarter from a contraction of 7.6% in the same period a year earlier.

TEH : When is the quarter report will be out? Its share price might jump up if the profits 'beat the estimates'. Is Tenaga declaring any dividends? Need to do some homework to check on these.

"Due to this, we think that we are going to far exceed our initial estimate of 3% demand growth for the full year," Che Khalib told Reuters in an interview at the Invest Malaysia conference.

"My guess is that it (growth) could be 6%-7% for the full year," he said.

Source : The Edge Financial Daily

If I never knew you



9.10 am : KLCI slightly in red, MPHB still moving higher. Some news on POS, and it is delivering.

Efficient : At 0.20 now, time to queue to BUY. Noted.

9.45 am : Efficient done at 0.195. Next round will be at 0.185.

11.55 am : WaSeong-wa at 0.38 ... my buying level. Should I buy?

4.07 pm : WaSeong-wa at 0.375, queueing to buy at 0.370.

4.40 pm : WaSeong-wa done at 0.37 moments ago. While I m lucky to clear GPacket-wa at 0.61 few days ago, I m not so lucky to clear AnnJoo-wb. AnnJoo-wb at 0.735 now, from 0.80 level. hai-ya ... GPacket-wa at 0.56 now.

Note : I double-checked the order status, it was not done at 0.37. Hmm ... thought that was mine. Never mind, queue again tmr at 0.37.

Adventa at 3.60 level now, cleared at 3.90, I m still waiting for 3.50 to buy. Now, I cleared 1.5k units ... which translated to 30 cents difference = 1,500 x 0.30 = RM450. That is more than a dinner for me. Unfortunately, I've only cleared half and still holding to another 1.5k units. That is 'trading'. Something I need to learn - read my post written by Conrad - which is NOT easy task.

11.40 pm : KLCI at 1320.

Warrants to stalk

With only AnnJoo-wb and WaSeong-wa at hands, I am still watching GPacket-wa, KYM-wa, Sunway-wc, SPSetia-wb, YunKong-wa and WCT-wb. As I do not want to touch any call-warrants, I will still look into these warrants. I will try to update my warrant-stalk list this weekend when I m alone in KK. I might buy GPacket-wa back at 0.53 level again. As for AnnJoo-wb, no change in plan ... wait for 0.68 ot oversold level. WaSeong-wa is a buy at 0.36 for me. See if I could get it at this price tmr?

Warrant to PUNT : Jetson-wa to buy at 1.10 and below. Strong horizontal support seen around 1.02.

Night.

TEH

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Why Traders fail - Lesson 1

This is the first of a series of mini-lessons on why so many traders fail. These mini-lessons aim to pinpoint some of the common (but not so obvious) mistakes they make and how some of the most common-sense practices go out the window the moment they start trading.

In Lesson 1, we look at where the problems all begin – The Education.

Most people know that trading is a stressful and dangerous job. Most also know that it isn’t easy and takes a lot of work and learning. Of course, there are the few who believe that the market can be beaten with a system or with some high-tech software. Then there are those who cling on to the ignorant belief that the market is a place that can get them rich quick.

Let’s not waste time discussing the dreamers and ignoramuses. Rather, lets look at the fellow who knows what it takes and is ready to work for it. Let’s look at the fellow who sincerely wants to learn all there is to know about this business but is unable or unwilling to get a formal education for it. It has been argued that one is able to learn about trading by reading books and obtaining information through the internet.

So if it is that simple, why do so many still fail? The answer is just as simple; Learning the wrong thing without realizing it.

Most of the books available, either at bookshops or at the library are about INVESTING and very few are actually about TRADING. So what happens is that most people don’t realize the real difference between investing and trading and will assume the two to be the same with slight variances. That could not be farther from the truth.

Investing is much easier to learn – like learning to drive a Honda Jazz. It doesn’t take much to learn it and it is easily understood and put into practice without much difficulty. The trick thereafter is not to crash.

Trading, on the other hand, is a very different skill and mind set. It is akin to driving a Formula 1 car. Unlike the Honda where the manual version has the clutch on the left foot, the F1 car’s clutch is a very different mechanism and is controlled by the right hand. Unlike the Honda which packs less than 80bhp, the F1 car stacks up an earth-shattering 900+bhp which, in untrained and inexperienced hands, could end up killing the driver.

There is so much more to trading than investing. The skills involved are very different, the psychology is worlds apart, the knowledge needed requires way more weeks and even months to acquire and the amount of research needed to be a good investor is nothing compared to the daily research and monitoring the trader is required to do to survive the market day in and day out. Where investing requires little or no practice, trading demands hours and hours of practice time to hone the skill. The financial management skills are also extremely different in that the investor protects his capital by how much he invests while the trader requires a different skill set to manage his finances – its called “cutting loss” – something easier said than done.

So without realizing it, most beginners will pick up an investment book or visit sites hosted by investors or have contributing members who are investors and assume that all that knowledge gained will stand him in good stead as a trader.

And when things don’t work out, it gets confusing. The common query that follows is always, “Why is it others can make it but I can’t?“

You can’t blame the poor fellow because there isn’t much literature on this subject and even some so-called gurus don’t know the difference. But all you have to do to know that this is true is to just look at Wall Street – how come the investors don’t have to be on the floor of the exchange everyday while the ones on the floor everyday are known as traders?

Knowledge … a little of it can kill you quickly while the wrong kind will slowly bleed you to death.



Why Traders fail - Lesson 2

Now we look at a controversial reason why most traders fail - The Attitude

It starts right at the start where most newcomers think that the market can be a get-rich-quick plan. This is akin to thinking that the market is like a casino. Consider this fact – the house ALWAYS wins. So if you treat the market like a casino, it will make you feel like most gamblers do. Gamblers always win a few but lose a lot.

Some trade like the market is a system to be beaten. Such traders ought to give themselves more credit. You’re insulting yourself if you have this attitude. To think that the market is a system is to include yourself in that system. Therefore, the system you are looking to beat includes you. Give yourself some respect and while you’re doing that, give the market the same respect – we’re not robots in the market and we’re definitely not part of a system. We’re humans that are driven by emotions. The market is an emotional place, not mathematical. You cannot have a system to beat an emotion because there is no math that can factor emotional irrationality.

Then we have those that don’t realize how unscrupulous the market is. Their ignorance is evident when they correctly assume the market is not that clear cut but will still buy into the hype. What is obvious is that the market is made up of all kinds of people especially those who will do anything to get an edge, even through illegal and criminal means. It is also full of experts who have spent years in Harvard and Princeton and then more years with established institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the like. They have hugely experienced mentors to guide them to become the next generation of world class traders. These people have so much leverage and influence on market sentiment and to make their advantage more unfair, they collude with their competitive counterparts in order to corner the larger market for their own gains. With such power, how is a three-day workshop graduate expected to beat the odds? Yet more and more look past the obvious and end up throwing their hard earned money to the power-brokers.

These are also those who buy into the idea that the market can be analyzed fundamentally with valuations. Such valuations do help to reduce risk. But that is an investment-styled strategy and not suited for trading. Trading is way faster and seldom allows the security time to flex its fundamental muscles before the next gyration takes out the profits. Read the previous lesson to know the difference between the investor and the trader and you’ll have a clearer understanding of this.

Others rely purely on technical analysis. I can’t deny that I base a lot of my analysis on technicals. But that is not the end all. All it takes is one bit of macroeconomic news and all that technical analysis is out the window faster than you can say “Cut loss!” TA is great as long as there is no news to upset the prevailing sentiment and as long as volumes don’t dip. But the market is never so generous. So in the end, TA is only a “best guess” … and contrary to common belief, TA is not the best guess of when to buy or sell – rather it is most reliable when used to guess the best potential against the least risk or the most risk against unfavorable potential.

Then there are those who believe that a good tip from a trader is the key to easy money without putting in any effort. For this, I have only one analogy; Would you take a heap of hard-earned money out of your wallet and give it to someone you hardly know and expect to get it all back after a few weeks? And if that person was trustworthy, would you still do it? And do you really believe that it will come back with more than you gave him? If in life we don’t make such practices, then the same principles should be applied in the financial world and most of all, in the market. The desire to get-rich-quick-and-easy makes simple people do really silly things with their money. And it is always only after getting burned that you hear those famous last words, “ … if only I knew …“. Yes, you’ve heard the horror stories time and again and so has everyone else. Yet people continue to write new chapters into this horror story ever so frequently … all in the name of greed, gluttony and sloth.

The financial markets are like an office block in a busy business district. The people who go to work there are serious professionals who take what they do very seriously. They are highly experienced, very influential and extremely powerful. It is also like a hospital where the surgeons, doctors and nurses are highly qualified and trained professionals. People put their life in their hands everyday.

Then one day, some over-zealous graduate with three days of workshop knowledge comes into this office block and expects to beat everyone out of their jobs. Or this hyped-up graduate with only three days of experience comes into the hospital and expects everyone to trust him with their lives.

Okay, maybe that is a bit of a stretch but the implications are no different. Every professional takes years to study his craft and then spends more years honing the skills with hours and hours of practice and hard work. There is no easy path to success and there will be failures along the way. The financial market is to be respected and feared. There is no other attitude except humility that will help a trader survive it.

It is said that more than 80% of the market is made up of those who lose and less than 20% are winners. The truth is that those statistics apply to any profession – how many top rated lawyers, engineers, surgeons, etc are there compared to the many also-rans?

The big money is always at the top where there are few who have it while the small money is at the bottom where most have to fight for it. And there are only two ways to be at the top – either you are already there or work hard to get there.

TEH : I m just one of the 'loser' trader who is still learning to be a better investor.
Yes, I do agree that the gains at the moment are artificial as KLCI is artificially supported. That is why it is NOT advisable to buy and hold at the moment. It is difficult to find the 'gems' now after market moving higher for ONE YEAR now. If anything, the corrections are around the corner and we should be cautious. I m clearing my positions ... and will wait for the correction which overdue. Someone warned me in the comment ... thanks.

I m clearing Adventa, KurAsia, someE&O, EPMB, GPacket-wa and AnnJoo-wb soon. MAS and BJtoto will be the buy-n-hold, unless they shoot 10-20% sharply.

12.15 pm : GPacket-wa cleared at 0.610. Looking to collect WaSeong-wa. AnnJoo-wb not done at 0.83.

4.05 pm : KLCI in red? Many are in profit-taking modes after few days of gain.

Adventa at 3.69 now ... as I hv cleared some at 3.90, I will wait for 3.50 to buy into it again. Looking into Supermax at 6.72 now(was at 7.00 yesterday morning).

Efficient at 0.215, and I m going to start queueing at 0.20 again.

9.10 pm : KLCI closed flat. Berjaya's stocks rallying ... perhaps due to the news that Vincent Tan nominated(or won?) as one of the best CEO? I dont know ... but BJToto at 4.50 now, reaching 4.60 or above triggering my SELLing point.

EPMB below 0.50 now, at 0.495. Will collect more at 0.48 or below. I failed to clear it at 0.540.

AnnJoo-wb at 0.75, down 5% today. Failing to clear at 0.83 again.

KurAsia cleared for teh-tarik profit(and my broker RHB gained more than me, I guess)






TEH

Monday, March 29, 2010

Monday ... yet another maniac Monday.

Queue to sell : Adventa at 3.90 and KurAsia at 0.590.

RM1 stocks : Gadang, Muhibah, Kinstel, Fajar and E&O. If I have RM50k cash in hand now, I will buy each RM10k and release any which giving me 10%(=RM1k) profits. Otherwise, I will hold till someone goreng them!! By end of thie year, I shall check on my profit/loss. My guess? I will profit from them. But, how many %? We shall see ... can it be above 30%?

Fauziah Latiff - Teratai Layu Di Tasik Madu




Nice old song by the pretty Fauziah Latiff. Wonder where is she and what she is doing now?

9.55 am : KLCI up 4 points. Sold half of Adventa(1.5k units) at 3.90, and another to clear at 4.00 level.

11.05 am : Adventa at 3.92(touched 3.94). WTK moving ... Sarawak's play?

Wa-Seong up 2%, looking at Wa-Seong-wa and to collect more at 0.38 level or lower.

Shima - Teringin



One of Shima's best known song, Teringin. Jaclyn Victor sang this song(and I dislike the way she sang it - spoiling the beautiful original song. Sorry, Jaclyn's fans).

12.05 am : I m in mood for my old malay hits. Hehe.

Ekamatra - one of their best hitz. Mind u, I know how to sing more than 100+ Malay songs - old ballad, rock songs. By the way, I m a Chinese. Perhaps, that is what Najib meant by One-Malaysia?



GPacket-wa at 0.60 now. Time to take profits? I bought GPacket-wa at 0.535(RSI 28) and today it is at 0.605(RSI 58). So, I shall wait for RSI reaching 65 or at 0.63. So, tmr might be the time to clear GPacket-wa.

AnnJoo-wb at 0.79 now, time to take profit too as RSI reaching 63 now. It touched 0.815, so I hope to clear it soon ... perhaps at 0.83 or RSI 70?

4.35 pm : Adventa, Latexx and Supermax in reds - wait for retracement again to move in. I have cleared some Adventa this morning at 3.90.

8.05 pm : KLCI up 4.07 points, but Adventa closed lower, at 3.77 now. Redtone moved too today.

MAS : I told my aunties(had dinner with them last night) to buy MAS - yes, it was at 1.90 level and at 2.20 level now. If you are NOT a trader, buying MAS at current level should give us handsome profits in a year or two. Do you have a year or two to WAIT for it to shoot to, say RM3-3.50 level? How much is the FD/bond rate again? Hmm ... EPF giving 5.6%, u know. Can beat that? Well, buy MAS at 2.20 now ... hold till RM3. How many % is that? That is how i see MAS, and have no problem collecting it.

TEH

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Beyond

Saturday, March 27, 2010

DRB and Proton are moving to higher ground. If u wish to know why and ask me, I will tell you that it is because I m going to buy a Proton car next month! So, their sales will increase ... and will be shown in their quarter-reports. Proton will go to RM5 level, I think. Proton-cb is a good bet.

TWSCorp flew off too, up 10%.

Next week - to sell Adventa and AnnJoo-wb.

Next week - to punt into Redtone at 0.22.



7.05 pm : I had Pizza-Hut for lunch, it was packed with hungry customers. How is QSR doing, I was thinking? A check on its chart, QSR at 3.30 level now.

TEH

Friday, March 26, 2010

DOW indeed breached 10,900 level last night.

Rubber-stocks : There is a rally yesterday with many rubber-stocks gaining momentum. OSK's top picks are TopGlove, Supermax and Hartalega. Adventa at 3.70 now, hope to clear it at 3.80 and above. Perhaps, that could be done today, or should I wait for another trading day or two?

Adventa : RSI at 61 yesterday, up again to 3.75 now, touched 3.79. If it goes up to 3.80 and above, RSI should be reaching for 70 level, which giving me an alert to SELL. 3.80 is also seen as its resistance. Breaking that, we might see 4.00 and 4.20 level soon, if rubber-stocks continue this upward momentum.

AnnJoo-wb : Up to 0.775 now, it was at 0.70 level ... and too bad that I was queueing at 0.68(for weeks now!! Haha). Will be clearing this fav babe of mine around 0.85(or RSI above 75)

Wah Seong-wa : With mommy overbought, WaSeong-wa at 0.40 level, I will like to grab some, making it my third warrant(instead of WCT-wb or SPSetia-wb which I m monitoring too). Perhaps, I shall wait for 0.36-0.38 level.

Bronski Beat - Smalltown Boy



10.05 am : KLCI up 2 points but Gadang and Muhibah move back to RM1 level, up 5% in the hour trading.

1.35 pm : Cant wait ... grabbed some WaSeong-wa at 0.40. Will grab more at 0.38 level or so.


TEH

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Jim Rogers starts some shorting positions



Legendary investor Jim Rogers recently appeared on television and voiced some of his latest opinions and investment maneuvers. We haven’t talked about the former Quantum Fund manager for a while because, let’s face it, he’s on television all the damn time. But, some of his comments from this recent interview made us take notice.

Potentially the most notable bit of his conversation was when he said, "I had no shorts for about 15 months so I started putting out some shorts recently. But the fact that I’ve been putting out shorts means the stock market won’t pull back." So, it’s interesting to see Rogers fight the current trend. In his mind, it’s the right play, but he knows he’s going to potentially feel some pain first. Many investors out there will agree that the market is overdue for a near-term pullback. MarketClub voiced these concerns in their recent technical analysis video of the S&P 500. Additionally, Bespoke outlined that many stocks are overbought.

We’ve also noticed some other signs that the market might be getting overheated for now. If you hadn’t realized yet, there’s been an insane amount of secondary offerings hitting the market. As we tweeted earlier, these secondaries typically come in droves when there is complacency and it could be a contrarian signal. (You can follow us on Twitter here). It’s been noted many times in the past that investors often buy the most at the top. Where were all these secondaries when the market was tanking and stocks were cheap? There was no demand; investors were too scared. Now that everyone feels ’safe’ again, the secondaries are rolled out, the buybacks crank up, and the insiders start purchasing. So, you can’t really blame Rogers for taking a stab here even though he’s going against the current trend.

In his interview, Jim Rogers also talked about some other hot topics. He touched on the euro given the fact that European sovereign defaults have taken centerstage. Rogers notes that, "The euro will probably break up in the next 15 to 20 years. Don’t get me wrong, I own the euro. We’ve had currency unions in history. They didn’t survive. This one won’t survive either." So, he’s short-term bullish and long-term bearish on the euro.

He then shifted his focus to how potential sovereign defaults could have ramifications for the currency. Rogers said that, "If the euro zone helps the Greeks, that weakens the fundamentals of the euro. As the next government comes to demand concessions, they weaken the currency from within. I would let Greece go bankrupt because then everybody will say the euro is a serious currency." This stance of his is by no means new. He’s a staunch supporter of the notion that markets should work things out on their own, even if it means something will fail. So, it’s always intriguing to hear what Rogers has to say.

In the end, everyone knows market timing is a bitch. While Jim Rogers obviously isn’t suggesting you go net short, it makes perfect sense to us to put on some hedges, take some profits on longs, and to identify companies that are now looking too frothy. And, it sounds as if that’s just what Rogers is doing. Whitney Tilson of hedge fund T2 Partners has been doing the same. Lee Ainslie of hedge fund Maverick Capital said in his investor letter that he thinks 2010 will be a return to a stockpicker’s market. He makes a great point that the decline in the price of risk equals opportunity for shorts.


In financial markets, you can never be too cautious. After all, it usually hurts more to be reactive rather than proactive. We just wanted to highlight Rogers’ new application of short positions since he’s previously been long for many months. It’s been a while since we last covered the legendary investor in detail, but those looking for more of his wisdom can head to our ancient post on Rogers’ portfolio and an interview with his thoughts on commodities.

Gerald Celente: Great 2010 Crash is looming




TEH : China is under-valuing their currency. Interesting ... economic war? Google China shut down!!
KLCI is flat ... at 1310 now. Jaks and EPMB gaining in my list. MPHB moving above RM2, up 8% today.

Jonas Brother



Sweet Dreams - Annie Lennox





GPacket-wa : It touched 0.595, so my queue to sell at 0.60 not done. Missed by a whisker again. Will continue to queue to sell at 0.60(or above).

EPMB : Touched 0.54, I m clearing this one at 0.55 level. Those buying at 0.50 and below could gain 10% at 0.55, right?

Efficient : At 0.215(from 0.24), I m still watching and will only buy at 0.20. I have sold all of this one at 0.225 or so level weeks ago. Now, if you have bought at 0.18-0.20 level, at 0.23 level, it is more than 10% profits, right? What are you waiting for? Hmm ... for it to shoot to 0.30 or higher, right? THINK again ... are u that BUY-n-HOLD ... that looong term investors? I admit I m NOT. But, I wont mind holding a while for 10%-15% profits and release it off.

Well, stocks move UP and DOWN. That is only natural. IF we could catch an upward momentum well, we might profit well. That is buy high, sell higher. Unless you are 'free' to monitor and know some TA, momentum trading is not as easy as it is seemed. So, I rather adopt a buy during retracements/corrections, and HOLD. Wait till any of my holdings giving me 10-15%, I will be glad to release my babes. Dont worry, it might go higher and higher ... look into other babes which are depressed down. That is how I see things ... using simple RSI-scan, looking for those in my stalk-list which as overly-sold or moving lower. Buy in stages ... the risk? I might be catching a falling knife!! Then, place a stop-loss ... and CUT. Ouch. We never know how low a stock could go, ok? Look at SAAG or SCOMI, I still do not dare to punt in!!

BJToto moving above 4.40. This is a buy-n-hold for me. grabbed at 4.20, it touched 4.21 recently before rebound to current level. I m clearing it at 4.80 or higher. Otherwise, buy and hold for its dividends.

12.45 pm : KLCI up 2 points.

3.15 pm : HSI down 200+ points today, with HSBC below HKD80 now. Li&Fung down 10%, at HKD37.50. I was watching it after it shot from HKD30 to HKD42.50. CIMB raised Li&Fung target from HKD37.50 to HKD42.50. Ironically, ya?

4.00 pm : Adventa is moving, after lagging behind Supermax and Kossan. It is at 3.65 now, and I will look into to clear some at 3.80 level.

TEH

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

DOW up 100 points, and at 10,888.83. Nice number there. KLCI will see green light again?

TSC OffShore (0206.hk) : Up 6% yesterday, to close at HKD2.21. Yes, I was monitoring this one as it formed a waterfall 2 weeks ago, diving from 3.50+ level to current level. It touched 1.99 on Monday with RSI at 23+ level, obviously over-sold. Wait ... I will show the chart later, as this babe moved from 0.60 level to 3.50 in few months time!! How is that, huh?

Could our KNM move from current 0.75+ level to RM3.50?? KNM is still retracing, mind u. How is the 0.90 offer going-on? Why is there some selling pressure? Hmm ... I m confused!! But I learnt that markets/stocks do not move with LOGIC - it is moves by EMOTION and demand-supply kinda theory.

Anyway, should I move in for TSC Offshore today at 2.20 level? Currently I m not holding any HK's babe since I sold CWP and Geely weeks ago.

Nik Kershaw - Wouldn't it be good



Wouldnt it be good IF I have the knowledge about MONEY and Investment since I was young? But, I never believe being too old or too late. At 40s, learning slowing but with determination, I believe we ALL could learn - it is not too late to learn how to prove the 'simple' formula of area of the circle = (pi) x (radius)^2. Will show it here somedayw when I m free!! Haha.

9.10 am : KLCI up 7.5 points with IRCB up another 6%.

11.10 am : What are the signs we should look for 'market reversals'?

刘若英-成全



4.15 pm : KLCI at 1308 level. MAS is flying today ... should I book MAS tickets instead of AirAsia? Someone told me that MAS female stewardess are prettier than AirAsia. I was like ... do I PAY 'extra' money to view the 'leng lui', IF that is true? And for a short 2.5 hours flight? Sound silly to me ... but in STOCK, I m paying RM2 for MAS, not RM1.5 for AirAsia. Well, I see the beauty in MAS, but the risk in AirAsia. Haha ... err .. do you really think MAS's babe prettier than AirAsia's? Ok .. I shall do a short 'survey'. Haha

SaaG : At 0.11, a new low ... and still retracing? Hmm ... Is it game over for this one? I remember one of my reader told me that he bought heavily into SaaG(it was at 0.22 level, if I m not mistaken). Today, at 0.11 ... I hope he has a cut-loss point.

Scomi : At 0.38, my ex-colleague LL told me that she bought heavily into it. I wonder WHY Scomi still retracing(from 0.70, ok?) ... and will we see a new low, below 0.25? How are Scomimr and ScomiEng doing?

RM1 stocks : Gadang at 0.93, Muhibah at 0.935, E&O at 0.96 and Kinstel and Leader at 0.975.

TEH

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

8.35 am : KLCI might open higher today, testing 1,300 level again.

Stock-calls : For some who are new to my blog(I wonder WHY you are here, frankly), please DO NOT take any of my writings seriously. I m just a Math teacher, who know NOTHING about finance, accounting, business, economics, investments, trading etc etc. I m SERIOUS. You will get burnt badly by following my so-called calls. Wait ... did I make ANY calls to buy/sell?

Those 'old' followers(I wonder WHY you are still here!. Haha) who are reading my blog for a yr or two now will understand that I m only writing RANDOMLY what I have in mind ... what I MIGHT BUY or SELL. Some are IMAGINARY ... gosh, u certainly wont like to follow my 'calls', do you?

Well, with that said ... if you really buying into what I written here, it is at YOUR OWN risks. And the risks are rather HIGH. I do not get paid in any way for what I m writing here. :p

As I have little knowledge to share, I do not mind meeting my readers and to LEARN from them. I m not FA or TA. I dont have sides, I dont care much about the arguments if FA or TA should be used or what the proportions of FA/TA should be used. How about LA = luck analysis? Or PA = punting analysis. Whatever it is, I m using RA = rojak analysis.

Dont get me wrong, I m not LanSi (arrogant) or tarik-harga(pull prices). I m just a blogger, who enjoy music and teaching(Maths). I m just an independent individual sharing my thoughts in cyber-sphere. I do not wish to offend anyone, and make enemies. I do try to share(for free, of coz) what I know, and will refrain to answer what I do not know. It is matter of opinion, ok? No offence, please.

Also, I m TOO BUSY to answer comments/e-mail. I m TOO BUSY to meet anyone just yet in KL here. I dont even have a car yet!!. Hope that will clear some dust, thickening in my mail-box.

CEO: Foreign investors may return soon

KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign interest would most probably return to the local stock market soon due to the better economic climate, said Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) president and group chief executive Tan Sri Hamad Kama Piah Che Othman.

He said foreign interest in the local market was considered the lowest now.

“Malaysia still has a lot of room to improve ... even when the Government talks about gross domestic product, it is trying to target higher than before, so you can see the climate is better,” he said.

Hamad Kama Piah said this after an income distribution announcement by PNB unit Amanah Saham Nasional Bhd (ASNB) yesterday.

Source : The Star

9.55 am : KLCI at 1299.5 ... welcome back to 1,300?. IRCB actively traded, up 13% and at 1.06 now. I saw it was at 0.89 days ago, if I m not mistaken.

2.55 pm : KLCI up 10 points - GPacket-wa and E&O up.

5.15 pm : KLCI up 11 points. IRCB up 29% to close at 1.20. Wow ...

Supermax is moving higher but Adventa stay flat. If I m not mistaken, there is a AGM for Adventa in Kelantan this week? How is it?

Queues : EPMB and YNHProp not done.

The ClIMB - Miley Cyrus



"The Climb"

I can almost see it.
That dream I'm dreaming, but
There's a voice inside my head saying
You'll never reach it
Every step I'm takin'
Every move I make
Feels lost with no direction,
My faith is shakin'
But I gotta keep tryin'
Gotta keep my head held high

There's always gonna be another mountain
I'm always gonna wanna make it move
Always gonna be an uphill battle
Sometimes I'm gonna have to lose
Ain't about how fast I get there
Ain't about what's waitin' on the other side
It's the climb

The struggles I'm facing
The chances I'm taking
Sometimes might knock me down, but
No I'm not breaking
I may not know it, but
These are the moments that
I'm gonna remember most
I've just gotta keep goin', and
I gotta be strong
Just keep pushing on, but

There's always gonna be another mountain
I'm always gonna wanna make it move
Always gonna be an uphill battle
Sometimes I'm gonna have to lose
Ain't about how fast I get there
Ain't about what's waitin' on the other side
It's the climb

There's always gonna be another mountain
I'm always gonna wanna make it move
Always gonna be an uphill battle
Sometimes I'm gonna have to lose
Ain't about how fast I get there
Ain't about what's waitin' on the other side
It's the climb

Keep on movin'
Keep climbin'
Keep faith baby
It's all about, it's all about
The climb
Keep the faith, keep your faith, woah

TEH

DOW is up again ... reaching for 11k soon. At 11,800 now. When will the rally ends or is it a real bull-run for the next 3 years?

It is 3 am - I m adding KYM-wa to my warrants-to-stalk list. While Annjoo-wb at 0.70 and GPacket-wa at 0.54, nothing I should do yet with these two.

O&G - Coastal closed at 2.30, and I m watching this one recently after it shot up from 2.00 level to a high of 2.60 level. RSI at 48, will like to trade this one when RSI at 35 level or at support level of rm2.00 again.

EPMB : Need to remind myself to continue to queue at 0.46, with next buying at 0.42 level.

Against All Odds - Phil Collins






TEH

Monday, March 22, 2010

My Brilliant Brain - Creating a Genius






A chess-genius : Susan Polgar
Monday blues ... with Liverpool lost and Koo-Tan lost too last night. Losing is a part-n-parcel of the games? How about stock markets? Losing money is also part-n-parcel of the 'game'? That is an expensive game, I learnt.

Too busy to write again, but my mind still thinking of Mr Choong's murder. Who will want to murder a 'nice' person? Well, I will certainly miss reading his VERY informative research on small-cap stocks.

One night in Bangkok



There is an unrest in Bangkok, and people cancelled their trips to Bangkok. I was curious to see how it affects SET(Thailand's stock market). Well, it is going UP. Huh ...? It defies the general beliefs that during unrest, investors will flee the country's market and the index might plunge?

So, how about KLSE? We know about the looong hanging Anwar's sodomise case, and he is a tired pale person now(that is the gov's motives la). Recently I read a little about MCA ... yes, the non-relevence Chinese society ... oooppsss, I mean association. They do not even represent Chinese in Malaysia, ok? At least that I how I see it. I m a Malaysian-Chinese, mind u. Ok Ok ... the Klang's case how already arr? Some big-shot 'makan dan lari' already? Case closed as it is too BIG to be exposed? C'mon MCA ... do we need another VCD lucah playing for public viewing? Get the acts right first before FIGHTING to 'serve' the Malaysian Chinese. Yawn ... same old story. But, Chinese Malaysians have better things to do than wearing REDS, painting the town reds ... and take it to the road? Hmm ... I wonder how much they REALLY love Thaksin?

I do not follow any of local issues ... but the taxi-drivers provided me sensational stories behind the printed news in our localpress. Interesting drama, tho. Perhaps, we might see someone being accused sodomising someone on 28th Mac or before?

11.05 am : KLCI down 3 points - Sunway-wc actively traded, up above 0.60 now. Also, Luxchem is moving higher too ... thanks to THE EDGE 'exposing' its gem. Article written about Sunway too ... so, it is interesting to see that either some retail investors read THE EDGE over the weekend and decided to invest into these gems OR some syndicate playing on it, to catch those ikan-bilis traders/investors like me.

12.05 pm : Time for short lunch and back to work.

7.40 pm : Dinner at Brickfield. So tired.

Today's KLSE is very clear ... I mean, Jerneh. What's up? It shot up 22%, with its baby up 50%. Wow ... how come my dream was not CLEAR? I should have dreamt of Jerneh clearly!! Anyway, KLCI lost 2.95 points and HSI down 400+ points.

Measat, AK's counter up another 11% today. Will it be taken private too or some hopefuls buying into it, hoping for some privitisation rumours to be out?

EPMB : Closed at 0.48, will continue to queue at 0.46.

KurAsia : Closed at 0.575, will continue to queue at 0.60.




TEH

Sunday, March 21, 2010

If Liverpool wins tonight. KLSE will be REDS tmr. And if MU wins, then KLSE will be RED too ... but DEVILISH. Hmm ... both ways will not be good. A draw will be good, then.

TEH

Friday, March 19, 2010

DOW up for the 8th trading days ... hmm ... the bull is running? DPTR up 30%. Wow!! Someone mentioned it in the comment - Thanks. I did not check on many liao ... only few local babes.

Will be busy till I m flying to KK later again.

3.45 pm : Venue : LCCT - McD

KLCI losing 6 points, drag down by banking stocks - MayBank, PBBank, CIMB and HLBank.

EPMB at 0.49, and will want to see if I could collect at 0.46-0.47 level. KurAsia up 5% after lunch. Bought at 0.53, I will like to clear it at 0.60 and above for 10% profits.

Maxis : At 5.30, its RSI at 30 level. It touched a low of 5.24 days ago, and RSI hooking up today. I will consider buying this babe for my aunts. I read that DiGi is giving better dividends? As for me, I will prefer to punt into Maxis-CW ... hmm, a quick check on its 4 CWs, Maxis-cd look a safer bet. Expiry more than a year, 10% premium and strike price at RM4.80(ratio 8 :1). Closed at 0.130 now ... time to collect some.

TEH

Thursday, March 18, 2010

KLCI closed at 1301, staying above 1,300. I m too busy the whole day - well, Astro taken privately, finally uh? That news has been playing for few years now.

Genting : Sold Genting at 6.60, gained only a teh-tarik.

I've cleared Genting as Adventa and LionInd moving are retracing and preparing to buy into them. I m liking YNHProp too.

EPMB and KurAsia are still hanging there. Want to clear these two when it shoot-up, otherwise I will be a looong term investor!!

Stalk : YNHProp at 1.48 now. Touched a low at 1.45, its RSI at 24 level, oversold. If over-sold, we BUY, right?

Warrants : WaSeong-wa shot up 15% today!! I m sticking with AnnJoo-wb and GPacket-wa for trading, I will continue to buy when these two reaching my buying-level. AnnJoo-wb at 0.68 and GPacket at 0.48. Then, sell each time they shoot up 10-15% from my entry point. As I m too busy to watch, I will key in the buying/selling in the morning before I started my work. Once I m in office, I will be busy for the whole day!



TEH

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

K.H.Choong murdered?? I m saddened by this news. Frankly, I read many of his writings, including D = Depression. He is also the person convinced me(thru his reading) about the rubber-sectors in Malaysia and counters related to rubber-sector. Very sad. Who will want to murder him?

DOW managed to close about 50 points higher. KLCI is flat.

There is a very important date THIS WEEKEND for investors and traders. I will have to miss this convention. Too bad. I know I could only join or participate in any of the activities after I m settled, perhaps in May/June. Looking forward to have a 'little' live ... at the moment, I m just a 'robot', working non-stop(production at almost fully capacity) ... couldnt find little time to READ my biz articles.

Belinda Carlisle - Circle In The Sand




9.10 am : KLCI up 7 points to go back above 1300 level.

11.25 am : CPNE shooting for the sky ... RSI at 85 now, and trading at 0.88. I have sold this babe months ago at 0.60. Dont really know what propelling its stock price ... hmm ...

4.20 pm : CPNE closed at new high of 0.91, up 11% today.

BJToto back to 4.40 level and MAS at 1.90.



Stalk : TWSCorp - buy at 0.500.

Malton : Closed 5% higher at 0.38 with high volume seen. If my theory is 'right', Malton will see someone to goreng it up to breach 0.40, perhaps to sell at 0.42. I will watch to see if my theory holds any water(or leaking? Haha).


TEH

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

DOW is flat again ... hanging there, like anytime to drop without warning ... KLCI lost 11 points yesterday and wondering if there will be any buying today? I will look into buying those babes I m holding which moving lower and sell which moving higher. Nothing else in mind at the moment as I m too busy to even watch the game of trading.

Quote : If you cannot work with love but only with distaste, it is better that you should leave your work. ~ by Khalil Gibran.

11.05 am : KLCI in red ...

4.40 pm : I m still in office to do some paper-works. KLCI in RED. AnnJoo(wb) are movning lower. Waiting for time to collect AnnJoo-wb.

KurAsia at 0.53 ... waiting for 0.50?

Namfatt : The most actively traded counter, losing 35% of its value to closed at 0.12. Wow ... I didnt read to know what is going on.

Hai-O : Re-priced and up 8% today. A very good counter for dividend and growth too.

TEH

Monday, March 15, 2010

Congrats to Chong Wei for winning the 100th All-England title. It really makes me glad and proud. I missed the game last night as I was too tired to watch.

Monday morning ... yet another long day, to start a long week. I m a 'robot'. I work and work. Will rest/pause during my holiday break in mid-April.

11.05 am : KLCI down this morning - KurAsia losing grounds while Perisai rebounds, up 10% now. GPacket(wa) is moving lower too. Clearing off my remaining GPacket-wa to buy back later. MAS at 1.90 level still, watching it closely.

E&O at 0.92. Adventa at 3.50. Genting at 6.60. EPMB at 0.50. AnnJoo-wb at 0.72.

Stamford College : Yes, it is a listed company, and in PN17 status. Yes, it is a COLLEGE, offering courses and has been around for 60 years. Yes, it used to be well-known for pioneering many courses in Malaysia. But, due to weak managements and strong competitors, Stamford faded off. Today, I read that it is verturing into STEEL sector. Wait ... am I suppose to add it into my steel-stalk list? Hmm ... it is confusing why they will venture into another sector, which not related to education? I was one of their employees ...its IPO was at RM2.00+ level, and I sold it early at RM4 only to see it shot to RM9 level. So, since I like steel counters, should I consider Stamford College stock?

4.02 pm : Have to run again ... KLCI down 11 points, and I m wearing RED. One of the class is so noisy that I feel so drown. KL is really a noisy place.

8.15 pm : KLCI lost another 11.53 points, down for 3 consecutive trading days.

GPacket retraces today ... closed at 1.15 with GPacket-wa at 0.54. I will move back in around 0.50(or GPacket at 1.08 level).

KurAsia : At 0.53 now, it is over-sold. Well, wait for a while and see if I hv more bullets to collect this one. Too many going down at the same time.

AnnJoo-wb at 0.705, and sticking to my entry point at 0.68 at the moment.

E&O : I thought I saw it dropping this morning, and was thinking to queue at 0.88, but it closed higher at 0.945.

TEH

Sunday, March 14, 2010

It is Sunday ... I m alone in KK, teaching almost non-stop. I m just done with a class from 8 am to 10 am, and waiting for the next class from 11 am to 1pm, and half hour break for lunch before another class at 1.30 to 3.30pm. By 4pm, I will be rushing to KKIA-T2 to catch my 6 pm flight back to KL. It takes about 2.5 hours to fly from KKIA to KL-LCCT. Another hour of taxi from LCCT to USJ. By the time I reached KL, my wife and kids are preparing to sleep, while I will take a bath and mentally preparing for another loong week ahead! These routine will go on till end Apr or May. I m a no-superman. I admit I m tired. I missed reading leisurely The Edge on Sundays, looking into opportunites and reading interesting articles

5.30 pm : KKIA-T2 - time to fly again ... am I tired? Hmm ...

My mind is blank ... I want to write many things but it is simply not organised. I have to pop-in 2 panadol to 'tahan' the pain in my head - migraine again. Need to nap during the flight.
TEH

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Don't Fall in Love With This Stock by Toby Shute 9th Mac 2010.

Back in December, after a major run-up in the shares, I penned a cautious piece on A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq: APWR). Some commenters got very emotional in response, calling my article "a lot of sour grapes," "worthless," and more. Now that A-Power's shares have fallen roughly 30% since my article, I wonder whether those critics have changed their tune.

Despite all the shouting and zany sound effects on Financial Infotainment Clown TV, emotions and investing don't mix. If you fall in love with a stock, you're setting yourself up for confirmation bias, in which you embrace evidence that validates your thesis, and quickly reject contrary opinions. How many blissful, dividend-receiving shareholders listened to David Einhorn when he began laying out the short case for Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD)? Even savvy Fools were still defending the company years later, when the cracks truly began to show.

The same rule of emotion-free investing applies equally to broadly hated stocks, whose neglect opens up special opportunities for investors able to look past the "ick" factor and assess financial reality. This led to unbelievable gains for Bill Ackman and other investors in the bankrupt General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP).

TEH : Love and Hate happens to many investors/traders. For example, I like "LionInd"(High NTA, low PER, high volatility, building material - steel sector, William Cheng, etc etc) ... I will be biased to seek confirmation. I dislike and wont look into PN17 counters(must be lousy companies to get into such an infamous status, huge losses, a/c scandals, etc etc) as I will term them as "dangerous". This is love-hate game, and being emotionally attached to it could cause us $$$. Reminder - do not love a particular counter and do not hate a counter. Be OPEN.

Swooping in when other investors spazz out

Most of the time, I seek to own shares in businesses with durable competitive advantages and management teams that I respect and trust. At the right price, though, I could get interested in just about any stock. Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) is a great example.

When I was quite new to the Fool, I ripped into this wildly popular gold miner in May 2007. The shares trade lower today, even with gold prices pushing north of $1,100 per ounce. No regrets there.

I watched Yamana sell off severely alongside Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), and countless other natural resource stocks in the fall of 2008. Did I point my finger and let out a big "Ha-ha!," Simpsons-style? Heck no! Using options, I picked up shares with a cost basis less than $5.

I don't much like the way this company is run, and I didn't hold on to the shares for very long, but at the price offered, Yamana was a compelling value. In this instance, it was essential that I set my feelings aside and simply look at the fundamentals.

Continuous reassessment is key

At the right price, I could similarly change my tune on A-Power. Has the stock's plunge swung the pendulum too far toward pessimism? Let's look at what's happened.

A-Power's third-quarter earnings release in December didn't pack any big surprises. Instead, the shares suffered from a late-January private placement that really caught investors off guard. The company raised $83 million by issuing shares (plus warrants) at a 15% discount to the market price. The aspiring alt-energy conglomerate said it needed the cash in part to help close the $50 million purchase of distressed Japanese solar equipment maker EVATECH. The firm expects to be reimbursed for 45% of the purchase price, but it had to fully fund the transaction up front. That was a pretty tall order for a company with around $91 million on hand (excluding restricted cash) as of Sept. 30.

These events speak to my previously expressed concerns regarding empire-building and overreach; incidentally, that's exactly what bothered me about Yamana. Shareholders get diluted now, with the promise of big profits to come. Between the debt conversion and this share placement, A-Power now has about 30% more shares outstanding. That's a lot of ground to make up, in terms of per-share value creation.

At current prices, and based on my estimate of roughly 45 million shares outstanding, A-Power has a market cap of around $540 million -- nearly 17 times the company's guidance for 2009 "non-GAAP" earnings. That's not cheap, but the few analysts who cover this stock have some big expectations for 2010, implying a forward multiple of perhaps as little as 10 times earnings. That would put A-Power in the same valuation territory as Solarfun Power (Nasdaq: SOLF). We won't know whether those estimates are close to the mark until A-Power issues some guidance (and then meets it).

I personally lack insight into A-Power's current earning power, let alone its likely results two to three years from now. Even with the share price drop, the value on offer here is just not clear enough to compel me to buy. I'll certainly keep tracking this ambitious outfit's progress, and will make sure to set aside my emotions as I continue to reassess the opportunity, both in A-Power and in the other stocks I follow. I hope you'll do the same.

TEH : At PER of 24+, it is currently NOT cheap. Well, generally speaking most of the stocks are no longer cheap as markets continue to move higher. I I will only move into US market(to grab some NEP and/or APWR and such) when there is a HUGE dive in global(particularly US) markets,which I believe a matter of time. Anything UP must come down ... it is matter of WHEN and how severe. Brace yourself.


Taken from : Motley Fools
APWR(6 mths chart) : Closed at USD13.36, it came up strongly from USD11+. Its PER at 24+ level. It is just one of the many green-stocks(especially WIND) that I m stalking.

British Pound is at a low level, at RM5.00 level now. Is it time to buy the pound if we are travelling to UK soon, say end of this year? Will it go lower?
Glad that I found(and saved) this clip in youtube - an old and nice song by Fotograf(a popular Malay rock group in early 90s).

The Star : Are EPF savings alone enough? By EUGENE MAHALINGAM

Invest ahead to generate extra money after retirement.

WHEN I was growing up, I aspired to join the Government. The main reason so was that I could be eligible for a pension scheme. This came from the fact that my parents were both civil servants and they got to enjoy the benefits of a pension when they retired. They still do.

While it’s not much, it’s comforting for them that at their age, they would continue to have an income for as long as they lived. I wanted to be able to look forward to that as well.

Alas, fate – or was it free will? – had a hand to play in my career choice and I ended up taking a job in the private sector. Seeing as I’m having fun doing what I do, I don’t see myself switching careers any time soon. So there goes my plan of getting a pension.

Time to switch to Plan B, namely, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). It is intended to help employees from both private and non-pensionable public sectors save a fraction of their salaries in a contribution scheme. The contributions are invested to generate income and the funds in the contributors’ accounts are to be used in the event that the employee is temporarily or no longer fit to work.

It primarily applies to retirement, but sickness, disabilities or unemployment are also covered. The EPF also provides a framework for employers to meet their obligations to employees.

As a retirement plan, money accumulated in EPF savings can only be withdrawn when members turn 50, during which they may withdraw only 30% of their balance. Members who are 55 or older may withdraw the entire sum.

Recently, the EPF board declared a dividend of 5.65% for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2009, up 115 basis points over the 4.5% paid for 2008.

TEH : For those ignorant of investments/EPF and happy about the pathetic dividend paid by EPF, I m going to splash the cold water here. Look, that stupid EPF invested heavily in KLSE and do you know how much KLCI has been shooting up? And they are using OUR money to invest - and giving us a fraction of their profits. WHERE ARE ALL THE PROFITS GONE, EPF? Do a simple homework and check out which counters EPF have the holding etc etc. Ridiculous to treat us like a monkey - giving us peanuts. I wish I could withdraw my money and INVEST it MYSELF. WHY the stupid law do not allow us to do our own investments?

Correction : Ok Ok ... sorry EPF for not being understanding that your hands are tied. But at least allow those who wish to INVEST by themselves have their money. Is that possible? No? Malaysians dont know how to invest?

According to Fundsupermart.com Malaysia, over the past five years, EPF has been distributing an average annual dividend of 5%. The average real dividend rate for the past five years was 1.7%, after reflecting an average inflation rate of 3.4%.

With that, the important question to ask is: Will the savings from our EPF be enough to sustain us in our retirement years?

Expert advice

In his Personal Investing column, “Enough money for retirement?” last year, MRR Consulting investment adviser and managing partner Ooi Kok Hwa says as the average Malaysian lived to about 75, those who retire at 55 would need to manage their EPF savings for 20 years. But most retirees spend all their EPF money within three years of retirement, he claims.
TEH : This statistic is alarming, showing that if given the chance to SPEND, general Malaysians will not know how to 'handle' the lum-sum of $$$. Many will buy a NEW car, go for vacation(old Chinese retirees will go to CHINA!!), etc etc ... . So, I do believe his claim.

Ooi provides a breakdown of how a retiree can manage his EPF savings for 20 years.

“We will assume a starting pay of RM1,500, growing at the rate of 8% per annum; an average bonus of two months per annum, average EPF returns of 5%, total EPF contribution of 23% (employer: 12%, employee: 11%) and inflation rate of 3%.

“Our analysis shows that if we are able to live with just one-third (or 33%) of our last drawn salary, the EPF money should be able to support us for 20 years until we pass away at 75.”

According to Ooi, if a person’s last drawn salary is RM13,976 at 55, he can only afford to spend one-third or RM4,612 per month after retirement (1/3 x RM13,976).

He stresses, however, that the computation was based on the assumption that a person would still be able to generate 5% returns after retirement.

“Everyone has different financial situations. If possible, we need to build our own investment portfolio apart from the EPF savings. We may need to seek some part-time jobs after retirement if our financial resources do not permit us to stop working,” he wrote.

“Besides, we need to clear all our outstanding debts before retirement. We also need to buy enough life and medical insurance for ourselves as well as set up education funds for our children.”

TEH : Yes, I will want to see myself debt free before I retire. I think I have sufficiently enough insurance coverage and will get some coverage for my wife/kids soon. As for education funds, none of what financial institutions offering is good enough. So, I will see how far my investment will go. Being in education line, I could get 50% discount if my kids are to study in the college I m currently attached to. Also, there are many type of scholarships which a child could apply.

Financial planner Wilson Low says a person who’s concerned about his or her future financial well-being has one clear option – invest.

“Anyone who’s worried about not having enough money in their old age should do something about it, to make sure that you do have money to sustain you when you’re old and not working any more,” he adds.

The obvious thing to do is to invest in something that can help generate an income for you when you’re older. There are various investment avenues out there and with proper planning and research, financial independence is not an impossibility.”

What some have done

Rita (not her real name), is a retired nurse. After working for the Government for 30 years, she worked in the private sector for a further nine years because she needed the money.

However, she admits that without her pension, it would be difficult to make ends meet. “There are things like your children’s education or repairs to the house that you need to think about. Without the pension, the EPF definitely would not be enough.”

Rita adds that as a former civil servant, she will always be eligible for free treatment at government hospitals. “This is especially important since most medical expenses will come up as one gets older,” she says.

Rita adds that EPF also used to declare higher dividends, between 6% and 7% in the 1990s.

Kamala (not her real name) was a former employee of the Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia. A Government-based organisation initially, it was privatised in the 1990s and its employees were asked to chose either a pension or EPF scheme as a retirement option.

Kamala chose the EPF scheme, a decision she claims she regrets. “The money finished quickly as I had many financial obligations like my children’s education and housing loan. I also had to undergo an expensive operation, the cost of which would not have been an issue if I were a civil servant.”

She is however thankful that today, her children have all grown up and give her husband and her money on a monthly basis. “We have also invested our money in property. So financially we are all right.”

Meanwhile, Kong, an information technology executive in his early 40s, says he spends about RM4,000 a month on household expenses, his children’s education and an outstanding home and car loan, among other financial obligations.

“I’m spending so much every month that I hardly have enough to save. Fortunately my wife is also contributing. After 55, it’s definitely not going to be easy. I’ll probably have to continue working until my kids can support themselves,” he adds.

TEH : I m currently in similar situations as Kong's. I m in early 40's, spending about RM4k+ with common financial obligations. I have to have many tuition classes to earn the 'extra' in order to save ... and yes, INVEST. But, I do not see myself continue to work fulltime after 55 - perhaps I will like to give FREE tuition to those poorer kids who need the service more. Or perhaps, I will like to involve with certain persons in teaching about investments/trading. IF I lose my passions for teaching someday ... then, I might just come back to SABAH ... stay in my beach apt and do what I like doing - listening to songs and reading. Perhaps, I might complile my blogs into a book?Hmm ... do anything I like, definitely hope I dont have to work after 55?!

DamaSutra - Asyik


Damasutra is one of my fav Malay group, then. I like most of their songs. Of coz Mega, Iklim, Spring, Gersang and many more ... I simply like those 'old' Malay songs. Why the new Malay songs no longer as good as these oldies? I like Ella's songs and not Siti's songs. I like slow-rock kinda songs ... but I cant find a GOOD new Malay songs? WHY?

TEH

Friday, March 12, 2010

DOW up again ... too busy today as I m rushing off to KK.

10.20 am : EPMB done at 0.50.

KLCI is losing 10 points!! At LCCT again ... time to fly to KK. MAS touched 1.82 this morning, at 1.90 level now. AirAsia retracing too.

Genting at 6.60 and Adventa at 3.45. GPacket-wa at 0.550. KurAsia at 0.550.

KurAsia : Going collect more of KurAsia at this level. Next support seen at 0.480 level.

LionInd : At 1.70 today, coming down from 1.83(sold 1.75), I will like to wait for it to reach 1.50-1.60 level again to collect.

Efficient : At 0.22, retracing from 0.24 and I will collect again once it goes below 0.20.

Yeah, I sold off many of my holdings to hold to some cash, waiting for the moment to move in again to these babes I m monitoring. When a stock shooting higher and higher, reaching our targets(with RSI above 70, means technically it is over-sold), be glad to SELL.

Geely : Touched 4.19, and missed my queue to sell at 4.20(by a fraction!) and at 4.08 now. Bought at 3.40 2 weeks or so ago, I m contemplating to take profit NOW. Ok, just do it.

10.10 pm : I m in KK, and just done with my tuition class. Yeah, I m playing a super-man role - went to office around 6.30 am today, teached for 4 hours in the morning, rush to airport to catch my flight, a short dinner at KK and a tuition class waiting for me. I m really tired. Wish I m a superman ... perhaps, I should try wearing a RED underwear outside. Haha.

Property-stocks : YNHProp going down today, followed by many property-stocks such as my E&O. Sunrise and Suncity(which Alex Lu mentioned days ago) are also going down. Yes, I admit that I do look into property stocks as I believe these badly battered stocks will benefit from the strong sales and new lauching ahead.

TEH

Thursday, March 11, 2010

DOW is flat. KLCI?

SPM results will be out today, so the whole college is 'quiet' as students went back to their hometowns to 'collect' their results. Time to do my paper-works.

The Fear - Lily Allen



I want to be rich and I want lots of money
I don't care about clever I don't care about funny
I want loads of clothes and fuckloads of diamonds
I heard people die while they are trying to find them

And I'll take my clothes off and it will be shameless
'Cause everyone knows that's how you get famous.

[Pre-chorus:]
I'll look at the sun and I'll look in the mirror
I'm on the right track, yeah I'm on to a winner.

[Chorus:]
I don't know what's right and what's real anymore
And I don't know how I'm meant to feel anymore
And when do you think it will all become clear?
'Cause I'm being taking over by The Fear

Life's about film stars and less about mothers
It's all about fast cars and cussing each other
But it doesn't matter cause I'm packing plastic
And that's what makes my life so fucking fantastic

And I am a weapon of massive consumption
And it's not my fault it's how I'm programmed to function

[Pre-chorus]

[Chorus]

Forget about guns and forget ammunition
'Cause I'm killing them all on my own little mission
Now I'm not a saint but I'm not a sinner
Now everything's cool as long as I'm getting thinner

[Chorus]

Someone asked me(in the comment days ago) about what RSI is. I will like to write about it as I do receive an interesting e-mail from Mr Mohd XYZ(of Kajang) pointing out that I should not trade based on RSI. Thanks for the advice, Mr Mohd. I do appreciate your pointer but I m too busy to reply ANY e-mail. This is a learning-blog ... MY learning progress and I will share with what I hv learnt about RSI - do feel free to correct me(dont worry, I m a person who is willing to listen and learn from 'experts' but if you dont know what u r talking about, just keep your comments to yourself la).

RSI = Relative Strength Index

The calculation : Seriously, are you a Maths nerd? If not, then why should you bother about the formula or how it is derived? Mind you, I do know how to derive many formulae being used in Maths from secondary to higher level of Maths. I do know the formula of RSI ... but I NEVER try to ask HOW it is derive and WHY it is done that way!! Do we need to know that? Sorry to say that I m ignorant of the calculation - luckily it is calculated by computers, and most of the web-sites/portals will give us the value of RSI.

Note - Just curious : Do any of you there know how to derive a SIMPLE formula - eermm ... such as Area of circle = pi x (radius)^2? Too complicated for you? Hmm ... how about area of triangle = half of (base x height)? Heard of such basic geometry formulae? Have you ever ask HOW these formulae are derived? For non-math person, it is quite 'impossible' to prove it but I do prove it to some of my VERY good Maths students. They do appreciate that.

Rubber : Kossan and Supermax have been shooting above their ceilings - Adventa moves along but today, they are in REDS. I m looking to add my positions on Adventa while going in to BUY Supermax. Supermax at 5.86 now, down from 6.20+, its new high.

Lets talk a little about RSI of Supermax - days ago, at 6.20, I checked. It was at 70+ level. So, it is technically over-bought. So, I m waiting for retracement to re-enter. Adventa moved higher too, to reach 3.60+ but its RSI showed 50+ level. So, I didnt sell Adventa while looking at 3.80 level to clear some(by then RSI should be around 70 - depending on its rate of price movements).

EPMB : It is moving today, and my queue at 0.53 done, more queues at 0.52 and 0.51.

KurAsia : At 0.565, queueing for more at 0.555.

AnnJoo-wb at 0.735 now ... hmm ... need to reserve some bullets for it at 0.69 level or below.

4.40 pm : EPMB done at 0.520. KurAsia done at 0.555.

LionInd is back to 1.75. Noted.

TEH

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

DOW is flat ... we might see KLCI flat on profit-taking today. I have cut off BJToto-cd totally with huge losses. That is a lesson to learn.

Looking to clear : Geely, Genting, Adventa and GPacket-wa. Yes, it is time to SELL as I m heavily inside the markets. Getting out before it dives? that is DANGEROUS.

GEELY : SELL on good news!!

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Chinese auto maker Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.(GELYY)
said Tuesday its February sales volume rose 54.2% from a year earlier to 28,712 cars.

However, the company's sales volume fell 35% from January, mainly because there were fewer working days in February as a result of the Lunar New Year holiday, the firm said in a statement.

Geely sold 72,589 cars in the January-February period, up 95.5% from a year earlier.

The company didn't provide year-earlier figures. -By Joyce Li, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2832-2333; joyce.li@dowjones.com


Dangerous - Roxette



A good link to Alan's Blog.

http://www.alantanblog.com/stock-market/market-outlook-2010-seminar-malaysia-and-greater-china-jupiter-securities.html

9.35 am : KLCI up 7 points.

9.50 am : GPacket is moving ...

11.05 am : KLCI is bullish - only one day of profit-taking today, as investors are back and KLCI up 12 points. KLCI at 1330 now. WOW.

12.45 pm : Palm-oil counters pulled KLCI higher in morning trades. KLK, PPB, SIME and IOICorp.

4.10 pm : Adventa and Supermax retracing. Geely and Genting up a little. Looking at CWP which at 0.85(sold 0.94 days ago) and I will start to buy back at 0.75 level.



TEH

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

APWR : Besides monitoring NEP, this is another US stock I m stalking. It is a green-stock. It drops from the recent high of USD21 to the current level of USD11.82. To start collecting at USD10. Noted.

PeterPan - My fav Indon group. Cool music.



DOW is flat - crude oil down USD2 but still above USD80(at USD81.70). KLCI has been BULLISH and breached the resistance of 1320, and we are seeing 1345 level soon. PBBank, MayBank and CIMB - the KLCI heavyweights pulled the whole index up. We shall see some profit-taking later on or tmr.

Genting up 10% easily, closed at 6.85. It will breach RM7 and I will be glad to release some of my holdings. GenS rebounds too. When Genting at RSI below 30(priced at 6.30 level), did you BUY into it? WHY not? If you are like me, bought at 6.80 level ... obviously at 6.30, which it was over-sold ... it is a BUY. I was late ... but went in at 6.50 last Friday, and today I m queueing to sell at 7.20, as planned. I m a 'robot', I worked on my system and dont bother much what others saying!!

CWP : I hv cleared it yesterday at 0.94(touched 0.96) as its RSI at 72 level. BUY the stocks you like at RSI 30, SELL when its RSI reaches 70. That is my 'mentality'. IF it shoots up above 0.96 later, I wont be bothered. My target initially was HKD1, then lowered to 0.95 as it shot up higher too fast with high volume, hence its RSI increased rapidly. So, it is a SELL, to me.

11.05 am : KLCI losing about 6 points, and Genting at 6.70 ... a profit taking day for contra players.

4.02 pm : KLCI down 7 points. Moving in to buy KurAsia at 0.570.


I will be too busy to monitor.


TEH

Monday, March 08, 2010

Maniac Monday - craziness with loads of work and classes.

9.55 AM : KLCI up 20 points!! BULL is running ... SELL SELL SELL. Or is it buy?

HSI up 300+ points in early trade ... so, I m looking to SELL Geely and CWP sooN.

IJMLand : Did not notice it last week that it is flying off.

Banking stocks are pulling KLCI into new high. Rates increased as economic outlooks are positive. Riding of the Tiger-rally? Genting moves to 6.80 effortlessly, and will be going to RM7 level soon. I will clear some at 7.20 and all at 7.50, if permits.

TEH

Sunday, March 07, 2010

5.25 pm : LCCT - KK

Genting-CP : from 0.17 jumped to 0.21. I was thinking ... isnt it equivalent to a stock priced at RM1.70 jumped to RM2.10? Percentage wise,it is the same but ... you rarely see a stock jumps from RM1.70 to Rm2.10 in a trading day, right? Unless someone goreng like LitYan or 3A or something like that. So, CWs still giving us huge leverage during a bull-run.

TEH
UP



I watched UP(DVD) with Er the other day, only to realise that I m really groing 'old'. I could not relate the movie with values and also felt it is not logical. How can balloons lift a whole house and fly? Hmm ... That is what I noticed the changes in me - I no longer the free-going and young-at-heart as I used to be. I m becoming 'calculative' when it comes to money - I m becoming heavier in thoughts with huge responsibilities on my skinny shoulders. I m bogged down with works and classes. I m drowned by the noises of the jam ... and noises in the college. I could no longer hear the music that used to play in my head ... and certainly I no longer the tak-apa person. I dont know if that is 'good' or 'bad' ... but I know I will no longer be the person I was ... in KK.

Tonight I m in KK ... I realised how beautiful KK is each time I m home here. Some friends asked if I will ever come back and I spontaneously answered YES. I simply love Sabah. But,perhaps after years back in KL ... living like a running rat, living in pigeon holes and ... meaninglessly earning more money, I might get used to it. I m struggling at the moment. I m at times 'lost' and wonder WHY I m back to KL? Then, I begin to re-collect my GOALS ... to be financially FREE in 5-10 years time.

I really dont know ... what I do know is to work hard, save enough and learn to trade/invest. Perhaps, after another 5 years ... this tough long winding road will lead me to a clearer path.

It is 1.05 am ... I need to sleep. But, I m still listening to songs ... as I dont have the time to enjoy my music when I m back to KL ... what a life in KL.

Soak Up The Sun - Sheryl Crow



Soak Up The Sun

Sheryl Crow/Jeff Trott

My friend the communist
Holds meetings in his RV
I can`t afford his gas
So I¹m stuck here watching TV
I don¹t have digital
I don¹t have diddly squat
It¹s not having what you want
It¹s wanting what you¹ve got o

CHORUS:
I¹m gonna soak up the sun
Gonna tell everyone
To lighten up (I¹m gonna tell 'em that)
I¹ve got no one to blame
For every time I feel lame
I¹m looking up o I¹m gonna soak up the sun
I¹m gonna soak up the sun
I¹ve got a crummy job
It don¹t pay near enough
To buy the things it takes
To win me some of your love
Every time I turn around
I¹m looking up, you¹re looking down
Maybe something¹s wrong with you
That makes you act the way you do

CHORUS

I¹m gonna soak up the sun
While it¹s still free
I¹m gonna soak up the sun
Before it goes out on me
Don¹t have no master suite
I¹m still the king of me
You have a fancy ride, but baby
I¹m the one who has the key
Every time I turn around
I¹m looking up, you¹re looking down
Maybe something¹s wrong with you
That makes you act the way you do
Maybe I am crazy too

CHORUS

I¹m gonna soak up the sun
Got my 45 on
So I can rock on.

This song is still very nice tho it is 'old'. Hmm ...

What am I doing looking into each and every O&G charts for in wee hours? Arrgghh ...

Does anyone know that KL is pale compared to the beautiful KK? Better not inviting more humanoids here to spoil her beauty!!

2.05 am



One of my fav song by Sun Yan Zi. VERY beautiful. Nice.

孙燕姿-- 遇见


听见冬天的离开
我在某年某月醒过来
我想我等我期待
未来却不能因此安排
阴天傍晚车窗外
未来有一个人在等待
向左向右向前看
爱要拐几个弯才来
我遇见谁会有怎样的对白
我等的人他在多远的未来
我听见风来自地铁和人海
我排著队拿著爱的号码牌
我往前飞飞过一片时间海
我们也常在爱情里受伤害
我看著路梦的入口有点窄
我遇见你是最美丽的意外
终有一天我的谜底会揭开

tīng jiàn dōng tiān de lí kāi
Wô zài môu nián môu yuè xîng guò lai
Wô xiâng Wô dêng Wô qī dai
Wèi lái què bù néng yīn cǐ ān pái

yīn tiān bàng wân chē chuāng wài
wèi lái yôu yī ge rén zài dêng dài
xiàng zuô xiàng yòu xiàng qiáng kan
ài yāo guâi jî ge wān cái lái

wô yù jiàn shéi huì yôu zên yàng de duì bái
wô dêng de rén tā zài duō yuân de wèi lái
wô tīng jiàn fēng lái zì dì tiê hé rén hâi
wô pái zhe duì ná zhe ài hào mâ pái

Wô wâng qián fēi Fēi guò yi piàn shí jiān hâi
Wô men yê cháng zài ài qíng lî shòu shāng hài
Wô kān zhe lù Mèng de rù kôu yôu diân zhâi
Wô yù jiàn nî shì zuì mêi lì de yì wài

zhōng yǒu yī tiān wǒ de mí de huì jiē kāi


Translation:

To meet

I hear winter leaving
I am awaking in some year, some month
I think, I wait, I am expecting
But the future can't be prearranged

Cloudy evening outside the car window
In the future, someone is waiting for me
Look to the left, to the right, to the front
How many twists and turns will love take before it comes to me?

What conversations will I have when I meet him?
The person I'm waiting for, how distant is he in the future?
I hear the wind coming from the subway and a crowd of people
I line up, holding the ticket with love's number

I fly, fly across an ocean of time
We are so often hurt by love
I look at the road, the entrance to this dream is a little narrow
Meeting you is the most beautiful accident

There will come the day when I find the solution to the riddle

taken from : http://chinat0wn.blogspot.com/2006/07/lm-yanzi-yu-jian.html


TEH

Saturday, March 06, 2010

12.35 pm : DOW up 122 points whith KLCI up 15 points. Yippeee ... next week we shall see KLCI penetrating 1 300 level, the so-called psychological level. Where are we heading next? 1320 ... and 1350?! Suddenly we feel BULLISH ... while just last month many are BEARISH. These up and down of emotions are the 'things' that make markets moving up/down ... with it. I m still holding largely on GPacket-wa ... and will add my positions on Adventa. I m think of topping up Genting too. Genting might go back to 7.20 level.

GPacket : BUY at 1.10 level - at 1.23 currently - SELL at 1.40-1.50 level.

Instead of buying GPacket at 1.10, I bought GPacket-wa at 0.535 when GPacket at 1.10. I bought more at 0.55 and more at 0.585. At 0.585 currently(mommy 1.23), I shall hold till it is oversold or when mommy at 1.40-1.50 levels(selling in stages). I think of 0.605 as my first point of exit.

12.15 am : Too tired after teaching the whole day to watch the Gunner's game. zzzz

TEH