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Friday, December 31, 2010

Stock watch

Aeon

AMMB

AnnJoo

BJToto

BStead

Bursa

CIMB

Gamuda

IJM

IOICorp

KFC

Maybank

MHB

MudaJaya

Naim

Parkson


QL : Breaking the resistance RM5.89 soon. A huge volume seen on Thu. A nice entry should be at RM5.59 when it touched MA50d. Wait for it to retraces in these few days or wait for breakout for entry. This is one of the best performing good fundamental stock.


QSR : Since the news of bidders out, QSR has been on of a 'hot' stock but as JCorp refuses to let go of her ... down, down , down ... and yes, this could be a good time to start to collect her again. Now at RM5.06, touched RM4.96 to formed a black-hammer, at support. RSI at 31, another huge black-candlestick and queueing at RM4.86 will be a good entry point. Good luck.



SPSetia : This is a weekly chart. A very strong uptrending stock and I do believe it could continue to go higher. Ride on it ... it has broken RM6.00






Supermax : Back to RM4, RSI at 32. This was a good call for my friend, SC when I asked her to average down her RM5 losing Supermax at RM4 and then asked her to sell at RM4.80. Luckily she listened. At times, we could only advise base on what we could see or know but there is no guarantee or certainty. I still believe that I do not want to advise her(or anyone?) to buy/sell whatever counter(s). It is too much of risk to take. We could even lose the friendship if they lose the trade and start to blame on you.


Majority of those in markets DO NOT have knowledge on how markets or stocks move. So, it is RISKY to answer them. Even giving a simple opinion, we need to be very careful. Supermax buy at RM4, sell at RM4.80 was a very good trade that I could remember for years to come as it involved my good old friend, SC. Since then, she asked me many times about her counters and as I realised she knows NOTHING about markets(FA or TA) but merely punting like many aunties/uncles, I kept quiet and wish her luck.


Supermax at RM4 now is not a buy, in my opinion. Perhaps, look at RM3.80 level for first level? I prefer an uptrending and theme-play at the moment. I have chosen TopGlove(for my aunt who can buy-n-hold) for a glove counter.


TanChong : Support at RM5.02, RSI at 44, a value buy at the moment. The surge from RM1+ to the high of RM6 is due to speculation and so-called valuation of Segambut-land. After the hype is over, it is at RM5 now. Many are still bullish in auto-sector and she might be awaken again in 2011.

Tenaga : Recently bonus 1 for 4. The chart needs to be adjusted. I like Tenaga at current level as the election is near and could be used to push the index higher. Also they should register some forex gain(MYR is strong vs USD) but the coal prices are in a high level too. This sleeping giant is lagging behind many and


TopGlove : Trading at strong horizontal support at RM4.97, with RSI 31. The above is the weekly chart showing a huge waterfalling in this no 1 glove-maker. I will continue to collect her for mid to long term investment. And I m placing RM4.50 for next collection level. Be patient.


WCT : At 3.19, huge selling volumes and breakout failed. It is reversing now and looking at 3.15 and back to RM3 for support. Those who bought at RM3 and sold at RM3.30 has profitted 10% TWICE. So, shall we wait for RM3 again? RSI at 54.

TEH
New Year Eve




The last day of 2010 ... I dont seem to be 'ready' for 2011 yet!!


IJMLand : Boomed ... breaking whatever support levels. At SMA100d support at the moment, looking at SMA200d at 2.45. So, I will like to see 2.40 and 2.45 as level to queue on Monday if it gaps down. This one need to hold till these dust is over. Yes, I m still positive and in fact as I do not like MRCB, IJMLand could stand better by itself. When many throw towels, given up ... that sounds opportunities to me. Again, we need to be patient. Those who bought into it should be glad that they could have cheap sales now, right? Yes, the valuation has been stretched since the merger news out. Anyway, short term speculators are biting the dust. Those punted into IJMLand-ca and IJMLand-cb which expired will lose everything!!



PPB : First resistance at 17.55 level and next resistance at 17.90. Need to have patience to hold till recovery. Wilmar(F34) is well-supported at SGD5.60 currently.

http://www.ppbgroup.com/


Wilmar : Background

The Company was incorporated in Singapore on 14 August 1999. The Company changed its name from Ezyhealth Asia Pacific Ltd to Wilmar International Limited on 14 July 2006 upon the completion of the acquisition of the palm oil and related assets from Wilmar Holdings Pte Ltd.

The Wilmar Group is one of Asia's integrated agribusiness groups and is also a palm oil refiner in Asia.The Wilmar Group is primarily involved in palm oil and related business, with integrated business operations ranging from oil palm cultivation and milling to the refining, processing, branding, merchandising and distribution of a wide range of palm oil and lauric and related products. In addition, it is also engaged in the merchandising of non-palm oil related products such as soya bean, crude soya bean oil and other grains, and fertiliser. In addition, Wilmar Group engages in the crushing of copra and palm kernel. It is also an oil palm plantation owner with palm fruit processing mills in Indonesia and has plans to expand into the bioenergy sector to tap into the demand for green energy.

Wilmar has also established its own brands of consumer edible oil.

Wilmar's products are delivered via a distribution network to more than 30 countries. It is a supplier to the Chinese, Indian, African as well as Middle Easten markets, with its products being sold in bulk to refiners, processors, wholesalers and retailers.





SPSetia : A doji seen and stochastic at overbought region, bearish signals. It shall retrace back to support level at 5.73 for us to accumulate. Strong uptrending stock with upgraded target prices by many broker houses with many BUY call. With more funds to push it higher, it could go higher as property stocks still in play for next year. How far could it go?


TEH

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Congrats to Malaysia football team. Tmr is declared a HOLIDAY, so today is the last trading day for 2010. Anything else for me to clear?

A reply to a letter from my reader

Dear Teh,

I m MP from Kuching. I enjoy reading your blog as it provide a lot of different direction and stock picking rather than focus on those "hot" stock. Mind to share more of for specialties on how you perform analysis on stock pick?

Lets begin with stocks. As I hv done a lot of homework in 2008(I know NOTHING about stocks and such then), I do look into newspaper. I typed ALL the stocks name in an excel(yes, ALL) worksheet, putting them in sectors as written in newspaper.

Then, I started to LEARN to read broker-reports and The Edge. Each time a stock being mentioned, I will highlight the stock-name. It is VERY tedious, honestly. I struggled as I do not understand much about what written in the broker reports or reading an article in biz-paper/magz ... it took me looong hours. But, I survived.

After highlighting those stocks, I started to categorised them into few criterias - for example, cash-positive vs high gearing counters, low pe vs high pe, uptrending, sideway vs downtrading patterns(mind u, I know NOTHING about charting and such yet), upstream vs downstream, glcs vs non-glcs, etc etc ... many of things I have done were NOT neccesary(I only started to know it now, of coz! Haha).

Then, I narrowed it to about 500 stocks, initially. 500 is still a too huge of a number. So, I started to re-read Adam Khoo's book and a few more investment books related to stocks picking. I m from FA-school(if you have read my blog long enough ... you will know I wont punt into MaxBiz and such 'hot stocks' as they FAILED my criteria to trade).

I bought Mac 2008 Dynaquest, and started to put their rating(from 1 to 10) into my worksheet. Above 5* are good stocks, I told myself. Of coz, today I could laugh at what I was thinking or doing. Haha. Yes, I m a person who could laugh at my own mistakes, learn from it and move on. I understand MY own learning curve very well. That is my advantage being in education line.

to be continued

9.05 am : KLCI up 3 points yippeee ....

IJMLand-wa : Down below 1.80 now. Anyone chasing at 1.90? Phew ... luckily we all exited yesterday!! Really lucky, man.

IJMLand-wa : At 1.68 now.WOW. Can anyone explain such a dive? I just know it reaches resistance, so it is a sell. But ... dive? Never mind, buy first, think later.

IJMLand-wa : Done at 1.70-1.72 now. Wait.

Support : At 1.60 now, my 1.50 not done yesterday. see how far my 1.55 could rebound? It is technical rebound and I do not have intention to hold.

PPB : At 17.50 now. You see, 16.80 to 17.50 is 70 cents and it is equal to 1.68 to 1.75 in one week, ok? Ooopsss .... speak too fast, at 17.30 now.

MHB : At 5.94, I m seeing RM5.98 to sell. Noted.

SPSetia : At 5.96 now, seeing RM6 soon? This is buy to hold.

9.40 am : IJMLand in focus today, I hv to see if I need to sell it quickly as I punted into it.

MHB : At RM6 now ... I m still holding to my MHB-ca. Selling for profits again?

IJMLand-wa : Sold my 1.70 portion at 1.74. I m going to play ding-dong with her today. If trapped inside, it wont be a large portion. But, I might earn some dinners. Hmm ...

MHB-ca : Sold a portion for profits at 0.575, done. It is extremely overbought.

10.15 am : IJMLand-wa sold at 1.73 too ... another portion stuck now as it is moving below 1.70. At 1.68 now, ok ... queue 1.65-1.67.

IJMLand-wa : 1.65-1.67 done. Wait.

10.30 am : Oh boy, 1.64 also done. Hmm ...

Catching a knife

I caught a knife in Support yesterday at 1.55. It rebounded to 1.60 but back to 1.55. This morning, I was tempted to see IJMLand-wa which went to 1.90 level yesterday dived to 1.70 level this morning. At the moment, it is at 1.64, and my queues at 1.64-1.67 all done. Instead of just looking at the knife in IJMLand-wa, I look into IJM group in general as I know even my IJMPlant will be affected. IJM is but IJMPlant still standing above RM3.

I may want to see such knives as opportunities to buy but the risk is VERY high. The FEAR factor is there and you may not know the 'bottom'.

10.45 am : My buyings stop at 1.64, it moving lower. Be greedy when FEAR is there? Or ... plain stupidity? At 1.61 now, I will be watching 1.58 now.

10.48 am : Queueing at 1.58-1.59. If it didnt rebound later, I will be caught. OUCH.

10.49 am : WOW ... 1.58 and 1.59 done too. Hmm ... how low could it go? Wait ... watch 1.55?

I m watching ... in deep red now. It really at 1.50 done now. It went to 1.48, watching 1.45 now.I m caught. Ouch ... need to cut off some later.

10.58 am : It rebounds a little from my 1.50 ... selling in stages, and hold those I m caught.

11.05 am : 1.50 portion done at 1.60. wow ... fast. Queue to clear 1.55-1.59 portion at 1.65.

IJMPlant-wa : Done at 1.25 average today. Hmm ...

IJMLand-wa : Sold some at 1.62. It is not possible to write it here 'live' as it is too quick. I still need to clear more.

Question to TA kaki : CAN the candle-sticks or indicators TELL that IJMLand will dive today? WHAT signals are there to tell? Arrghh ... they will come out with stop-loss. cut-cut-cut. How many will cut?

IJM-wc : Rebounding after crazy selling. See if IJMLand could do the same ...?

Question : Anyone was there in such a situation before? I have ... a few times, in fact. I do remember the crazy selling of MudaJaya in ONE day. Thanks to SC.

IJMLand : Touched 2.66, up at 2.86 now. Hmm ... very fishy.

11.55 am : Clearing ALL my MHB-ca at 0.565 now. This one giving me about 18% in a week. I have to clear it as I m deep inside IJMPlant-wa and IJMLand-wa now. Bye MHB, for a while. It is extremely overbought at RM6.00, ok?

Conclusion : Market does NOT make senses, it is playing on FEAR and GREED. For those bought at 1.90(many of them - I feel sorry), will you buy it at 1.50 just now or sell it at 1.50 due to FEAR?

THPlant : Bought yesterday at 1.90, at 2.06 now was a good decision.

SPSetia-wb : Down to 1.60 now.

QSR-wb : Still watching ... moving lower again.

KFC-wb : Same story as QSR, being abandoned now. It is no longer finger licking good.

12.35 pm : IJM suspended. MRCB-IJMLand bad news out. I will stuck with IJMLand-wa with losses going into New Year. Yes, I hv been trimming it but still have 4k units. Will see what I should do later, then.

Support : Cleared at 1.54 as I need more bullets on IJMLand and IJMPlant.

2.50 pm : Cleared part of BJCorp-ca at 0.150 for small profits(from losses!!), grabbed more at 0.135-0.140 yesterday.

THPlant : At 2.10 now, grabbed at 1.90 yesterday. It was a right choice when KN asked me about moving into TH vs Cepat yesterday morning. I checked the chart and since I dont read much about Cepat(it was too fast for old man like me), I chosen THPlant. Good choice, bro.

SPSetia : Up 20 cents, I was discussing this with Peter, a reader I met yesterday. He is a nice person. I like nice people, indeed. They makes me feel comfortable tho I myself look more like a gangster. Haha. Yup, SPSetia-wb touched 1.59 but I did not plan to top-up on it yet.

Mommy up, baby down?

AnnJoo and WCT showing such a character at the moment. AnnJoo up above 2.90 but her baby down 4%. Huh? WCT also in green, testing 3.30 resistance third time yesterday, but WCT-wb down fto 0.67 now? How? Hmm ... babies these days do not follow mommies anymore. Modernised babies. Haha.

KLCI going to close in RED for the last trading day. I m off for my bowling game!!

11.35 pm : Yet another market-talk. Tonight with my young colleague, PT, who is my current student in investment. We played bowling together.

Anyway, I played 130+ for the first three games. They started to say it is because I m using house-shoe(I forgot to bring mine, ok?) etc etc. Then, I told PT ... in trading, many giving EXCUSES for not perfoming etc etc. WHY? Because they have little knowledge and understanding. To motivate myself to play better, I placed a target in my next game. If I failed to play above 150, I will call it a day! I played 159. Phew. Again, you might think it is LUCK. Haha. 159 is way below my average of 190, ok?

So, the next game, I need to play above 160. I played 206. Yes, with the house-shoe where I cant even slide or have my normal foot-work. Next game is the last ... yup, I played 200 to show to PT what I meant by bowling knowledge. Nothing to do with the most expensive bowling ball, show, hand-guard ... err ... shiny bags or what-have-you. I made adjustments to my footstep with the sticky house-shoe and change my positions!! Haha ... you think PT or anyone notice that? WHAT?? Playing 200 game is a LUCK-factor? Hmm ... you have serious mental block.

Trading is VERY similar to bowling. So, I ticked PT off when he simply 'playing a fool' and not showing any seriousness in his throw. He been playing for so many years, yet to show a decent 150 average. Hmm ... I told him this " Do you know that I have played bowling for about 14 years, played thousands of games YET till today I take EVERY throw seriously and STILL learning from the throw??". Teach me bowling ... how am I going to beat anyone with my straight 10-pound ball? And playing with a house-shoe? I can use house-ball too, you know.

EXCUSES EXCUSES EXCUSES .... that is normal bowlers will give. The lane too slippery la, hungry la, hand pain la ... head-ache la ... whatever excuses they could come out to JUSTIFY why they have played for YEARS yet to get a decent 160 average. THEY DONT UNDERSTAND about how to improve, what are needed to improve and the desire to find out.

Back to trading .... those telling me how many YEARS they are in market la, excuses given each time they lose a trade(obviously they lose more than they profit - stats showing 10% in positive side, ok? ADMIT that you are losing money in BULL market!!). EXCUSES ... and started to curse or blame others. They NEVER reflect on THEMSELVES. These are LOSERS, to me. They know nothing much about path to success.

It is not a throw you get a strike that matter - it is what you learn or miss the lesson from the throw. Every trade we made, win or loss, it SHOULD NOT matter much. If we could see it as a looooong journey, we know that we could take that trade as a guidance and learn from it. Until today, I still focus in my shots and excited to go for bowling game. No need for me to tell you that I could beat any average league players in any bowling alley. I dont give excuses like ... I m not familiar with these lanes or environment. Face it, adjust to it to your best abilities ... and hope for the best.

All the best in the coming new year. Do learn to BLAME yourself if you are caught into IJMLand today with huge losses. I m caught too. I take full responsibilities about my trades. And think very objectively about what I should do next.

Be happy ... it is a new year. Write a NEW YEAR resolution. Start with the reflection on your loser-characters. READ GOOD books about character building. It helps you to understand why you are LOSING IN MARKET.


TEH

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

9.40 am : KLCI up 7 points. I slept very late last night, doing my homework(as I had dinner with a trader).

YTLpower : Huge interests today. Good. YTLpower-cb up 14% now, at 0.235.

IJMPlant : Breaking RM3 now. Good.

PPB : At 17.30 now, up 50cents from my purchasing price. I was trying to tell the 'young' trader yesterday that buying RM1.68 stock and RM16.80 stock is more or less the same, depending on your trading strategies. If RM1.68 stock up 5 cents, RM16.80 stock up 50cents. SAME la. It is obvious that many see RM16.80 stock as VERY expensive, will prefer RM1.68 stock, right?

Jaks : I have sold it at 0.725 yesterday, a day too early again.

BJCorp-cc : A short punt went wrong, down to 0.14 now. ouch.

Perfomance of my students

WCT : Bought at RM3.00, sold at RM3.30 ... first person to gain 10% in one a month.

GenM : Bought RM3.32(no experience in queueing, otherwise could get at 3.29), at 3.37 now.

YTLPower : Bought at 2.41, at 2.50 today. This is for dividend play, she told me.

PPB : One bought at 16.78 and another 16.74, same day as me. At 17.36 now. Watching a reversal? Added at 17.30 in the morning.

I m not sure if anyone else bought anything as it is a holiday, everyone trying to avoid their teacher from asking "Got to homework or not?" Haha.

MAS : No one e-mail me to tell me that RSI below 30, showing that they DO NOT monitor market as much as they should. Just 30 minutes per day at night only ma. Must 'scold' them for not doing their homework on this one - they are supposed to SMS/EMAIL me if ANY 30-index linked counter with RSI below 30. MAS was at that low at 1.93 support level. Missed the plane!! They have much more to learn, obviously. Hmm ...

11.20 am : KLCI in green, at resistance.

IJMLand-wa : Three persons followed me when I bought into it. HW sold earlier at 1.81, my client from Sabah bought VERY hugely at 1.79 and 1.81 and sold yesterday at 1.85-1.86. My friend KN bought at the lowest price at 1.76, sold today at 1.87. I sold yesterday too. Everyone sold theirs as I sold mine. Good trades for everyone. I will hv my free dinners. Hehe.

Support : One of the huge waterfall I m stalking now. WHY is it keep moving lower, breaking all support levels? Watching 1.50 now, RSI moving to 20.

12.25 pm : AFTER everyone, including me cleared my IJMLand-wa, it is breaking RM1.90 now. Hmm ... that is huge for my client, yup. Yes, I was waiting for breakout but sold it one day earlier!! My friend KN sold it this morning!! Ouch.

In my mind ...

Saving = Earnings - Expenses. If Earning > Expenses, then Saving is positive.

Invest the saving in good stocks for capital gains next year.

How to increase the 'earnings'

How to reduce the 'expenses'

How to invest wisely the savings.

3.05 pm : KLCI up 6.67 points.

CWs : YTLPower-cb and MHB-ca are doing well but BJCorp-ca stucked in the red mud. I have cleared all the other CWs, and will only hold to YTLPower-cb and MHB-ca for trading purposes. Will like to clear BJCorp-ca soon(cut losses) after three-days of profit-taking.

Plantation : As for Plantation-play, I have opted for PPB and THPlant(thru KN). The warrant is IJMPlant-wa. Buy to hold till plantation reverse. I might add in another stock to my portfolio, seeing many are bullish in plantation-sector.

Property : SPSetia and Malton(thru KN).

Steel : As I have cleared Jaks and AnnJoo yesterday, I m still holding to LionInd and Kinstel. Will clear one and only choose one to focus to trade. Most probably I will choose LionInd?

Glove-stock : I m only collecting TopGlove for mid to long term play.

QSR and KFC : No thanks to the latest news(not selling them), it is diving now. I will re-look into KFC-wb for my warrant play.

These are more or less my portfolios going into 2011. I m still looking at BStead.

4.10 pm : Support done at 1.55. Wow .. I do not expect it to dive THAT deep. It touched 1.52, with RSI below 20 now. See if it rebounds.

5.05 pm : KLCI up 6.90 points. We are at 1524 now. Bravo.

YTLPower-cb and MHB-ca is performing well today. Added more positions on MHB-ca as I MHB moving higher to RM6 next? As for YTLPower, I want to see it moves above 2.50 level.

Well, SPSetia giving me a cheer going into new year as I m buying largely into it and will continue to top-up.

Support : Accidentally done at 1.55. 1.50 queue not done. This is an extreme waterfall I told the young trader, JY, I met yesterday. He mentioned that each time when they announced share-split, the stock price will tank. Or is it? I hv no idea ... if so, why?

IJMPlant-wa : Added at 1.30 level today.

PPB : Added at RM17.30 level today.

Geely : I told JY I m clearing many of my stocks yesterday morning as I m moving into Geely, oversold at HKD3.30. He does not know fundamental(pure TA) and dont read much. He never even heard of Geely. Hmm ... I told him that HSI dropped 2k+ points and current weakness is the best to buy our fav stock. Welcome back, babe.

I guess more or less I m done with trading for this year. I m positioning myself and consolidating my portfolios. Clearing the closet.

10.15 pm : I met a reader(a trader too) tonight for dinner. It is a very fruitful market chat as we do share few similarities in our views. Yes, I do like to talk about stock-markets and those strategies where we could use(and improve) ... this is sharing of knowledge and experiences - a win-win situation. I will like to have a few in a group as 'traders' where we could seriously meet to discuss our portfolios and such. Yes, I hope to know MORE of these traders who share similar views ... not merely punting or gambling blindly. Those who done homework and could understand how market moves. In fact, it is difficult to find these knowledgable and experienced traders/investors sharing their point of views. I certainly like to learn more from them. Thanks for the dinner and sharing. Next treat is mine. My pleasure.

TEH
12.05 am : Met a 'young' trader for dinner and shared with him many invaluable trading 'secrets' and plans with him. I dont know if he benefit from my 4hours+ of talking!! Haha ... He said he trades since he was 21 for 5+years now. And his weakness is too emotional when trading!! What is the advice? PLAN YOUR TRADES BEFORE YOU TRADE.

Well, I dont think so he could learn anything much from me tho I do tried my best to share with him many 'tips'. You see, when you have been trading for 5years+, you tend to have your own style and fav stocks. You will be BIASED towards certain stocks, for sure. And many of your trading strategies may no longer work!! Hence, it is becoming a 'habit'(normally bad ones) developed internally ... you cant teach old-dogs new tricks, as I will say.

Anyway, I m tired. I m tired clearing many stocks in the morning when KLCI jumped 13+ points in the morning. Most probably, I will like to clear more of my holdings so that I could be more focus in VERY few stocks. Hold hugely on the stocks I believe could give me 10-15%.

A letter from my ex-student - a doctor to be

Hi Sir,

How're you doing?

A Merry Christmas to you and your family!

Picking up from the last time I talked to you about stocks and investment in general (in Tshun Tsching Cafe), I have continued to read up about currents affairs and whatnot.

The news today says that our country's inflation is at 2% which so happens to be higher than our real interest rate. What is the point of FD then? haha BTW, I do not hold the same view that our inflation is only at 2%.

With the on-goings in the political scene, I think it is possible that the government will call for elections within the next few months. Knowing our government (my assumption), I think they might pump money into the stock market (esp GLCs) to give the impression that the economy is doing well.

The PMR results were just released and apparently the number of straight A students have increased. (I think the more likely explanation is the fact that the A -grade has been lowered)

Hence, my question is, which in your point of view are the stocks in the market that are government linked which have strong or solid fundamentals? (gamuda?)

I am thinking of entering low at this point and hold until elections.

am open to all kinds of advice :)

I know you are really busy sir, take your time.

yours sincerely

DK



TEH

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Few more trading days to new year ... time to clear more and re-start the engine for 2011. The non-performing portfolioswill be sacrificed. Collecting back the bullets to ride on the uptrending stocks - time to change some strategies too.

Yesterday morning I had breakfast with a reader, JS, who was asking me about warrants. As always, I will always advise those new to markets NOT to touch these instruments. Well, I meant good ... I got badly burnt previously. I lost most in call-warrants when the direction reverses. I know that it is 'normal' to think of the huge profits from 'playing' on it but it comes with huge risk(of losing huge amount of money too). Yup, it is more of gambling in nature.

It is difficult to predict, in short period of time, whether a stock will move up or down. It is like flipping a coin. Head = Up and Tail = Down.

She mentioned it correctly that she wanted to try 'forex' at first as one could go long or short. But, the HUGE challenge will be which pairing should you go long or short? Especially one does not read much or understand the mechanism. At least it makes sense to her not to trade forex yet. You do need to be 'technically' savvy too.

But ... KLSE's big-cap stocks are slow, so obviously many noticed call-warrants attached to those those stocks. Yeah right ... it is always ignorance and greed that bring us misery. Ask me about it, I was there before. In fact, I 'allowed' myself to be in many situations for experience purposes. For education purposes or reasonings. Then, you will learn the painful lessons - of losing lots of money.

By merely reading about 'technical analysis' is certainly NOT sufficiently for a person to trade call-warrants. In fact, in my opinion, TA could not be applied to most of the CWs in KLSE. The low liquidity is a threat too.

Logically, we should go step-by-step and that is what I m 'coaching' my students. Invest in good stocks, buy at support when it is oversold and hold till it recovers.

Over-trading : I m going to reduce my trading activities substantially going into new year. Yes, I want to be more focus in fewer stocks.

2.40 pm : KLCI up 10 points. Bullish. I m busy clearing many, win or lose. Yes, time to clear most of my holdings and start a fresh. I trimmed HuaYang again today, cleared some Kinstel, cleared Jaks and many warrants. CLEARING is my idea today as KLCI surged 13 points this morning. It is quiet yesterday and today, actually.

Meeting readers : I hv two dinner appointment, tonight and tmr night. Yes, I will want to take my break to know more around and next year I will be joining trader's club. I will still attend CNX's meeting and see if I could benefit from there too.

Focus : I want to collect only two warrants, two call-warrants and two stocks. I have not decided on which but more or less, I hv ideas on them.

4.55 pm : KLCI up almost 6 points, down from the morning up-surge.

SPSetia-wb : Start to collect at 1.63 today.


TEH

Monday, December 27, 2010

2.00 am : Monday

I m still doing my homework on stocks. I hv been taking off for past four days and currently trying to check what I have missed. I will want to clear some non-performing stocks too.

IJM group: Worth a look.

Meeting with readers : I will be meeting few readers during my break. The purposes, besides free makan, are to see how I could related to my readers - if they are potential to be my 'clients', 'students', trading/investment group or just merely knowing each other. I could not promise to meet all. Nice people appeals to me, rude people shut me off.

10.20 am : KLCI down but BJToto at 4.40 now. Selling soon at 4.50-4.60 or technically overbought.

JS : I met a reader who is keen to attend my 'class'. Thanks for the b/fast. I will use some of her questions to share and to learn.

11.35 am : KLCI down 1.5 points. Today is BJ's day.

BJCorp-cc : Up 30% now, catching her at 0.155-0.165. Paused.

11.55 am : Lunch time. KLCI is quiet today as many having holiday.

Sapcres : Still in red today tho Kencana and Dialog staying in green today.

2.40 pm : BJCorp-cc doing well but others cc doing badly. Mudajaya-cc, UEM-cc, DRB-cc, Sapcres-cc, Kencana-cc, MHB-cc ... hmm ...

3.30 pm : SPSetia-wb down again today. Need to check on it tonight. Noted.

KimLun : Rebounded today too.

6.20 pm : Plantation doing well today with glove-stocks tanking.

Adventa ... rushing for exit. Supermax, Latexx and Kossan slipped downwards today.


TEH
12.45 am : Post #1234

Stock Watch


AirAsia : Supported at 50MA and good entry point at the moment for stage one. The risk will be the increase in crude oil prices.




BJCorp : Supported at Rm1.03. Entry at 1.03-1.04, cut-off at 1.00.






KFC : Supported at 50MA, a good entry point at the moment.





KimLun : Supported at 20MA, should give a good trade.

TEH

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Getting the best return on life

Written by John F. Wasik of Reuters
Saturday, 25 December 2010 23:05

NEW YORK: I was in a homeless shelter recently with my daughters and neighbors serving a hot meal to some folks who didn’t have a roof over their heads.

They smiled gratefully and thanked us as they sampled my pasta recipe and other dishes. This was a frozen moment when I had to ponder the investment one makes not in stocks, bonds and funds, but life itself.

My friend Mitch Anthony, speaker and author of “the Bean is Not Green,” always has great insights on this process. He says we need to take stock of our “return on life (ROL).”

Return on life is about measuring what’s important to you in non-tangible terms. A warm place to sleep. A job. Health insurance. A decent meal with people you love.

To evaluate your return on life, you literally have to stop thinking about money. Just stop. Look at what you have and what you can give. What do you value?

“Everyone has a unique set of values,” Mitch tells me. “We have a vision of life. What adds to or subtracts from it? What are our responsibilities to others?”

To gauge ROL, we need to know how much and how often we value certain things. Are we spending too much time at work or worrying about it at home? Do the things that matter most occupy the least amount of our daily existence? What have we put in the backs of drawers that need to be revealed?

In order for us to have this self-conversation, we need to throw out some ideas that have dominated the financial arena and poisoned our lives.

Forget about forecasts.

Nobody has a decent crystal ball, especially after 2008. The world is moving too fast. You can’t plan your life around a business channel. What are your needs? How can you best address them with current resources and time?

Stop focusing on performance.

So you didn’t get a raise or bonus this year. Did you achieve what you set out to do? Are you getting closer to your goals? Life isn’t a steady upward curve. It really looks more like the stock market, which is a jagged line.

Forget about timing.

Some people can plan careers and they are defined by certain milestones: Becoming a manager or partner, getting the big raise, retiring. Life going forward won’t be that simple. We will gradually retire or work into our ninth decades. We will un-retire and pursue different careers. Work isn’t what it used to be.

The one thing we shouldn’t embrace is regret, that indisputable anxiety that we’ve not gotten the best return on life. Or to quote Stephen Sondheim from A Little Night Music: “Isn’t it rich/Isn’t it queer?/Losing my timing/this late in my career?”

The best ROL leaves us with no residue of remorse. It flows organically, like an idea whose time has come. You won’t find it jumping out at you from the business headlines or a blog.

How do you know you’re making a good life investment? You can feel it in your gut, your neck and your heart. I’m not talking about a mutual fund or bond that may or may not pay you back. I’m talking guarantees with the full faith and credit of what makes you tick.

For some, it may be learning piano or a new language. For others, it may be volunteer work or a trip to Antarctica.

I can tell you I’m finding immense pleasure just cooking for my family and others, taking that daily walk and breathing deeply. I can’t value any of these things in monetary terms, but they have value beyond words. I can measure them in warm smiles.

Most importantly, you can gauge your return on life in terms of what you can do for others. This is the compound interest of giving and it could be anything from a kind word to going to a friend’s funeral and talking with survivors.

There’s going to be so much in life that will make you sick with anger and grief. You’ll get a much better return from your life energy if you can multiply good will. That’s the most valuable asset of all.

Happy holidays and peace, prosperity and health! - Reuters

Note: John F. Wasik is a columnist for Reuters.com and author of The Audacity of Help: Obama's Economic Plan and the Remaking of America. The opinions expressed are his own.

copied by TEH
Christmas is over, new year is nearing. What's next for next year?

Travie McCoy: We'll Be Alright



BJToto : Privatisation rumour is out ... after Tanjong(and Magnum) taken out, BJToto could be next and it shown interests recently, at RM4.30 now. I have bought it at RM4.20 for dividends(paid 8 cents twice so far) but if it shoots above RM4.50-4.60, I will consider selling her. Since the rumour is still fresh, I think I will add another 2 lots into her, ride on it a while and sell in stages.

BJCorp : Well supported at 1.03, consolidating and activities seen. Punters moving into her, with BJToto in rumours. Run .... once the rumour is NOT real, which most probably it is merely RUMOURS. Someone working inside are going to manipulate the stock again? We watch ... I will like to GAMBLE at 1.03-1.04 level and see if my theory is right this time. I m using the word punt, as it is. Playing with syndicates and 'buaya' could be dangerous but the rumours out for more uncles/aunties to be TRAPPED. So, shall we watch RM1.03? Cut loss at 1.00

MMHE : Regard as the best IPO of the year, surging from RM3.61(retail price) to current RM5.58(touched above RM5.90). With crude-oil price above USD90 now and expected to go around USD100 in first quarter, MHB may see RM6?

JCY : Worst performing IPO of the year, trading at RM0.80 currently from RM1.60, its IPO price. It is considers as the Turkey of the Year(I had turkey last night, nice actually ... so, why do they call it a 'turkey'? A turkey in bowling means three consecutive strikes in row!).

MRT : With MMC-Gamuda in news for this huge projects, as long as BN still in power, these GLCs will 'benefit'.

Note : I will like to accumulate MMC or Gamuda, riding on this news. Am I too late? Wait for me ...

The Edge : Will liquidity-driven party last?

Three fund managers : One said "Buy on dips", second one said "A tale of two halves" and third one said " A year for equities".

As for KLSE, I think it will be bullish till the election, then if BN not doing so well again, the risk of a dip will be there, giving us opportunities to buy at dip. Of coz we need to clear most of our holdings before election. Currently S'wak election news is hot. Then, after the dip, we should continue to ride on the 'recovery' and going into the year ... and it is a year for equities.

O&G : This is a sector which currently moving at a very fast pace, anticipating crude-oil price to go higher. It could be seen as economy activities or hot-money moving into commodities. With CPO at RM3,600 level, it might go to RM4k level. What a recovery for our O&G counters, with KNM, Dialog, Sapcres, Dayang and Kencana recently rallying strongly. You may want to place MHB in O&G too. Counters like Petra and Perisai are moving too. Alam and Coastal are lagging, with WahSeong might reverse soon. All from different segments of O&G, which one is the most positively correlate to the crude-oil price? I need to check my 'old' file on these.

Riding on O&G : I will focus on Sapcres, Kencana and MHB. My choices are linked to retailers favourites. I am a trader, I do need to buy what is 'popular'. Recently, I m collecting Alam due to weakness. At RM1 now, I still have some paper-loss on her and will like to see it recovering to RM1.10 level again.

Riding on Plantation : IJMPlant and HSPlant. Do watch IOICorp the laggard.

Conglo : BStead should do well, and the current weakness giving investors to move in. Currently DRB and MBMR in play.

Steel : I like this sector the most as I do see another rally in steel-sector in first half. But, I think I will stick to LionInd and AnnJoo. Will clear Jaks and Kinstel.

Property : E&O at 1.14 will be a good entry point. IJMLand and SPSetia are still in strong uptrend. As for Malton, 0.72 support will be a good entry point, to goreng.

Adventa: Adventa being used to GORENG on Thu. Something very fishy there, with good profits news and privatisation news out at the same time?? Yes, that is how syndicates(and insiders and broker houses and many more buaya darat) trapping the retail traders. If you bought into it on Friday at the high of RM2.80, you will surely feel trapped now. You see, these common-sense do not seem to be common for those late comers as they believe it will shoot up to RM3.20 the next moment they bought into it. It is a 'gamble'. It is not easy not to punt on her on Thursday, you know. Yes, it is OK if you are just having a short trade and out by tmr. No greed or fear needed. Afterall, it is just a punt - you and me know it - it is NOT to be taken seriously. WHY would one good profit news making a stock moves up 30%+, right? COMMON SENSE is not common here. Then, at the same day, other rubber-stocks having party too. Hey, if the whole sector abandoned more than half year now, why would you THINK makes them attractive now?

ADVENTA? Since when Adventa becoming the leader? Told you common sense not being used in markets. It is all guts feeling and such. It is you-n-me know WHY these people get greedier, perhaps you-n-me are one of them. Time to get slaughter tmr ... time to run since the news of privitisation is being denied. Hmm ...



TEH

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Merry Christmas

Malacca Trip : This is my second this year. My wife likes Malacca and it is a shorter drive compares to Penang. I like Penang, obviously. I was born there and speak Penang Hokkien. Hehe. Anyway, thanks to a reader who drew a Malacca map and telling me about Portugese Settlement. Unfortunately, it was raining yesterday and we did not go anywhere but turn home at night, instead. Our first Melaka trip was at Alor Gajah, the Farmosa 'cowboy town'. This trip we were at Ayer Keroh(murky water).

MITC : There is a Planetarium, KWSP, so-called Kota Fesyen(which not fashionable), bowling alley, trade center etc etc ... a mini Putrajaya in the making? Nothing interesting there, but we stayed at the hotel there. Most of the hotels in Ayer Keroh are fully booked!!

Mini Malaysia/Asean : Nothing there, not worth the time.

Bee : You do see a lot of types of bee but even my son will ask, why not 'live' bees around? They are selling honey. Well, at least it is a free-show.

Butterfly park : This is nice. RM8 for adults and RM5 for children. Worth it. Real butterflies flying, Koi-pond, reptiles, birds ... and the peacock showing off his feather when we were there.

Wonderland : There is this new park, opened in May this year but the resort is not opened yet. Next year then ... so, we skipped this one this time.

Botanical garden : Just a short walk there.

Dataran Ayer Keroh : They built this artificial place ... just took a few shots.

Zoo Melaka : We just went to Zoo Negara recently, so giving it a skip.

River Cruise : This is nice tho the river is very dirty and polluted with rubbish thrown. RM10 for adults, RM5 for kids.

Jonker's walk : After A'Farmosa, old churches and such, we went to Jonker's walk for dinner. We were looking for Nyonya food. So, we went to the 'largest pineapple tart made in Malaysia' shop ... the otak-otak there is nice. It is quiet expensive, perhaps they know we are 'tourist'.

Chicken Rice Ball : Wow ... you need to QUEUE up for a lunch? Serious, most of them must be Singaporeans. There are many Singaporeans there, which spoilt the nice people there. I view Sporeans as kiasu-society which I could never understand why they are becoming such. Hmm ... anyway, we managed to have a taste of it at nearby shop, the queue was much shorter. Nothing special, in my opinion.

Food Products : One corner shop there selling all those so-called famed food products. Had a nice shopping there to buy for gifts. The packaging is nice. There is this place "Tan Kim Hock", the popular place too. Shouldnt it be Yap Kim Hock, instead? May be they are brothers.

So, the third trip might be next March. Hopefully I could afford to spend another day extra driving down to Muar or reaching Batu Pahat.

Oversold stocks(by CNX)

1. Cnouhua(48)
2. HuaYang(30)
3. KLCCP(43)
4. QSR(42)
5. Support(23)
6. TopGlove(32)

HuaYang : I have trimmed HuaYang at 0.93, support level. Yes, technically bearish. Will hold to another part of it.

QSR : Currently there is a weakness in QSR's price and I do view it as a chance to accumulate. Support at RM5.20 should be a good entry point. I bought QSR-wb and it is back to my cost level. Wait.

TopGlove : Bought at RM5.50, another at RM5, this is my buy-n-hold counter. Any 10%(RM5.50) upward will see me sell RM5 portion. If it retraces to RM4.50, I will buy my third portion. So, just wait and see.

Support : Breaking all support at the moment. Remember I bought it at RM1.50 months ago? Watch if it is rebounding at RM1.50 then. RSI showing oversold as this is forming a huge waterfall now.

Warrants list

AnnJoo-wb(55.5)
BRDB-wa
Fajar-wa (58.3)
Gamuda-wd(57.5)
Glomac-wa
IJM-wc(73.6)
IJMLand-wa(60.4)
IJMPlant-wa(60.8)
KFC-wb(46.1)
KPJ-wa (45.1)
KYM-wa (64.8)
QSR-wb (49.2)
SPSetia-wb(62.3)
Sunway-wc (65.0)
Unisem-wa
WCT-wb(60.3)
YTLPower-wb(48.7)

TEH

Friday, December 24, 2010


Christmas Eve

It is really a week to New Year. So, I will also like to wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May next year be a better year for us in our learning and gain the much needed experiences to ride on the raging bull. For Chinese, it is a 'rabit' year, which might run very fast. For those more conservative investors, look into blue-chips but I feel second liners have much more rooms to move higher.

Being an investor, we should be taking our positions at the moment to ride on the tide. Stocks move up and down in daily basis, we should be CLEAR about its direction. If you are bullish about the outlook of market in coming months, start to accumulate the stocks you like. It doesnt matter to me if you are using FA or TA. But for those using HA, we need to make it short - afterall it is HOPE analysis without any support of logic?

To me, it is ridiculous to argue on what stock(s) will be moving much higher in coming months. I dont know ... what I do HOPE I know is riding on some news and direction of the 'herds'.

And what I will like to see is I m more focus in FEWER stocks which WILL fluctuates, with higher beta. As traders, selling after certain target achieved is important and move into next potential stocks which will move.

Anyway, I will be writing my trading resolutions in one week time and hope we all could share our views on what we should be doing. Most importantly, we need to be open-minded, flexible and adaptive. Those 'old timers' who think of only one or two stocks or only one strategy, time to CHANGE. Change is the only constant.

Good day ahead. I will be busy visiting the crocs, animals, butterflies and birds today.
11.15 pm : Adventa down 6% but was up earlier in the morning. Did ANYONE chased it in the morning at RM2.80 hoping it to shoot to RM3 or what? Game over or another leg up soon?
DRB-cc is ok today but MHB-ca which I grabbed back at 0.50 is very down today(touched 0.42). So, we shall watch ... HuaYang continues to move lower. Hmm ...
time to rest and forget about market for this Christmas weekend. Going to have a gathering with whole family for dinner at sis's home. My two babies will be the main attention as this is our first Christmas together in KL here, with TEH's family. They will definitely get all the hugging and gifts.
Yeah, the nice feeling to be home in KL with family. My two kids will certainly 'benefit' from being here. I have to make sure they are not overly-pampered.
MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone. Thanks for the wishes from some of you. Nice :)

TEH

Thursday, December 23, 2010

DOW up again ... KLCI might go up further?

Losing money in bull market

As I was talking to KN, we agreed that losing money is important in markets, like giving tuition fees. Some take it positively to LEARN from the mistakes while others might over-react towards losing money. Money is a very sensitive issue to many. So, if we are novice with lack of knowledge and experiences in market, do expect to lose money. If you are losing money in bull market, needless to say when we are seeing a bear market!!

Many are speculating on election-rally ... could it be in March or May? So, such anticipated election-rally has pushed the market to new high ... everyone is bullish. We need to be very cautious when election is nearing. Yes, I will agree top that we should clear our positions before election as there are too many uncertainties about BN or PKR.

Sarawak election is another theme as many are expected it to be at early next year too. Perhaps it will be in March? The rumours were out and even some newspapers written about it.

So, we are having our year-end rally at the moment. We are in holiday and festive moods. And with New Year nearing, we are preparing for another set of new-year resolutions and such. Hopefully we will keep to our plans and to see through our goals for the coming year materialising.

MAS : Flying again ... finally. Those buying at 1.92 level will be glad. You dont buy now, ok? You buy at 1.93 support level when RSI below 30, understand? No? That shows lack of common-sense again to explain why many losing money. MAS up, AirAsia down.

Adventa : Chasing today? Suddenly it becomes attractive at 2.10 too, not at 1.92 like MAS. Told you so Adventa is a good stock!! Arrghh ... buy-buy-buy

Disclosure : I have no positions in both MAS and Adventa. Too bad.

MHB-ca : Continue to be strong, I punted into it yesterday, cleared half at 0.485 and waiting another half at 0.50. A good call-warrant, so I might grab back when it retraces, if it retraces.

AnnJoo-wb : Queueing to clear half at 0.75. For a person who bought it at 0.68 and sold it at 0.79, waited for it to dive ... and grabbed at 0.63, selling at 0.75 is a good trade. But, I m keeping half to sell at resistance of 0.79 again. That needs the mommy to fly above RM3.10?

10.05 am : MHB-ca done. Cleared some YTLPower-cb at 0.215 too.

1.00 pm : Marrybrown, Melaka Mall

Will be going for Portugese food tonight, will be staying near Air Keroh today.

Anyone from Melaka want to sponsor my cendol&rojak? I will be glad for meeting the readers session in Melaka Maju here. Hehe

MITC Hotel, Ayer Keroh

3.30 pm : Terrible day for my portfolio - HuaYang, LionInd, KFC are down. For those who want KimLun, DRB, UEM and such ... it is down. Time to accumulate more?

Adventa : Today is her day. In fact, Adventa pulling the whole glove-maker stocks!! Latexx, Harta, TopGlove, Supermax ... all in green but Adventa is the best performing stock in KLSE today.

MHB-ca : Grabbed back this morning and glad it is up AGAIN at 0.55 now. Wow ... 10% from the point I bought back at 0.50 this morning. I grabbed at 0.45-0.46 level after it moved yesterday!! WOW.

3.40 pm : Cleared half at 0.55 again, grabbing back lower again later.

9.55pm : Back to hotel, went to Jonker's walk(like Petaling Street in KL) for Nyonya dinner.

AirAsia : Bearish, down 5%,

MHB : Formed a bearish candlestick at overbought region. Time to exit.

KFC : Still moving lower, will start to collect again.

DRB : Bearish too. Time to exit.

So, I need to exit the three and add KFC.

LionInd at 2.02, time to consider again. Trimmed HuaYang at 0.93 for losses. Today is a very bearish day to my stocks. ouch.

Night.

TEH

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

4.05 am : DOW up 50 points. Green day again.

It is towards year-end ... time to reflect and place some new resolutions for my personal financial goal. I need to do checking on my full-time job, my tuition-classes, my investment students and clients and also my own tradings.

I need to improve in every 'departments' and to see myself be more organised as I m handling about 4 main things to do everyday. Will write it down to make myself aware of my 2011 financial goals.

10.50 am : KLCI up 5 points. I m at Bella for facial. Haha ... I m very reluctant to spend money on such(silly stuff) and feel that beauty is skin-deep. Anyway, I m not living alone by myself, I guess.

Call-warrants : The 'cc's

Today many call-warranst cc is down. Mudajaya-cc, DRB-cc, UEMLand-cc and Kencana-cc. Only MMC-cc up in my cc-category. MHB-cc is flat.

3.20 pm : The break is the time to run errants too - MayBank, PBBank and EonBank.

MAS : Rebounded.

KFC : No longer finger licking good?

DRB-cc : Movin lower ... hmm ...

UEMLand : Lower today too ... those interested, given second chance to move in?

10.05 pm : Just had a dinner and nice chatting with KN.

KLCI is bullish ... I was away and grabbed some DRB-cc and see if the VW news could push it up again? We shall see ...

There are chances that I will take KN's advice on 'diversifying'. I m too diversified, which is NOT good. So, I will re-think about this tmr when I m driving to Malacca for holiday. See if I could drive to Muar too.

I need to clear more of my stocks and FOCUS in the theme/sector that are moving and FOCUS in only two stocks!! Perhaps New Year is a good year to start anew?


TEH

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

UEMLand : As I 'told' some of the members there I bought UEMLand for the past two days, one mentioned no signal to buy. Perhaps he meant 4R1G or bullish crossover. Another one mentioned no volume!! WHAT?? The volume actions was SO NICE if you know how to read selling and accumulations. TODAY, huge volume seen, 4R1G and bullish crossover seen. Guess I m abou to sell at resistance soon as more aunties/uncles rushing to have a part of her. Terrible, as someone in my group said KimLun look nicer as it broken resistance. I just hv to say KimLun a BUY at 1.40 la, 1.60 is a sell. WHAT? Buy high, sell higher? Yeah right ... move on.

A posting to CNX's forum

Hi all

Last night we were given IJM, KimLun and UEMLand. I hv chosen UEMLand for the group as I hv bought into it for past two days. Buying today is for a little late-comer and guess what, tmr many started to see the chart TONIGHT, after up 5% or more, they are thinking of b-uying. They are late comers. If that is not enough, there will be MORE coming in to b-uy after it shoots up 10%. Amazing logic? I will be glad to s-ell by then.

Yes, I called for a B-UY last night during the meeting. KimLun is a b-uy at 1.40, please. I tried to make senses to my group members and I hope they learnt a pointer or two.

I hope I have helped instead of being seen as 'arrogant'. I m not. I am WORRIED from the way many speak about stocks during the meeting. It is really worrisome as many dont know much about FA, yet to grasp the TA concepts and dont really read much about NEWS related or perhaps do not have the idea to translate the news into their advantage.

I hope I could join many in the meeting more often but due to my tight schedules, I could not. I m not there to give 'tips' as I DO NOT believe in tips or even those guru-worshipping mentality.It is all hard-work and continuing to LEARN. I m in chart-nexus to LEARN what we called TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. It is technical and NOT for everyone, for sure. Even if you know how to place your E-S-P well, HOW many win trades by being discipline? WIthout the RIGHT attitudes to trade, majority could NOT capitalise on the power ot the charting using CNX-software.

Here, I will like to encourage LEARNING rather than punting or looing for TIPS in this forum. Take this platform as a learning place and a place we could share opinions.

I have yet to graduate as I have only attended two days of the 4-days course. And I want to encourage many who have 'abandoned' their learning to take this coming new year ... to re-learn.
Merry Chirtmas and Happy New year all. Maaf zahir batin.


TEH
Many in holiday mood ... KLSE will be quiet too.

Yesterday HW(a veteran with market senses, you cant find many there in CNX, ok?) mentioned one very important pointer : The market movers. They are Fund Managers, Broker Houses, Syndicates and Directors/Insiders. Yup, it is not me or you. We just need to follow the trend.

During the meeting, they presented Sunway, Petra, UEmLand(my group was given IJM, UEM and KimLun - I chosen UEMLand. KimLun just shot up again, it is a SELL to me. Buying should be at 1.40 level).

What I always dont understand is those uncles/aunties will only look for those shot up HIGH in the day. Example, an aunty mention Ramunia or and uncle telling me about HapSeng. Someone in another group asking if Dialog can buy now? YTLLand can buy? Even the trainer mentioned WaSeong and I hv to let them know that the long white candlestick was ARTIFICIALLY planted(last minute gapped up 4 cents). A young person sitting beside me talking about KNM. If you listen careful enough about these noises(there are SO FEW of us there last night - blame it on the rain, market down, Korean-tension, Christmas mood etc etc) ... you know that they are still either side line, wanting to catch those shooting the sky OR holding on to some stocks wondering what to do with them. So, they are there to ask for "tips".

Maybe we could just make a guess : YTLLand moved, can UEMLand and IJMLand move too? Perhaps anything with LAND? Such as LandMark to move today? Just guessing ... the "land" theme? Haha. Err ... APLand or MKLand are cheaper? Hmm ...

12.35 pm : I m away to Nilai the whole morning without internet access. So, I missed the show.

LionInd : Sold 1.80 part at 2.00 as planned. Next, I will sell my 1.90 portion at 2.10 as planned. You need to read my post one month ago to understand such ano-brainer way of trading. At times, simple common sense works better than your 5 FA ratio or 5 TA indicators. Many making trading VERY complicated, especially the more they know(at least they THOUGHT they know la), the more cautiuos they becoming. All the 10 technical indicators MUST show buy, otherwise I wont buy. Those FA-kaki, I also beh-tahan when they said I will wait for market to collapse as it is over-value now. I will wait ... yes, wait till their 10 FA ratios satisfied. Wait-la ...

Mudajaya : Missed her. Hmm ...

UemLand-cc : Bought at 0.36, sms-ed HW(of CNX) and grabbed more at 0.34, told him last night during teh-tarik. At 0.375 now. Going for 0.40 to sell?

IJM-wc : This is another warrant I missed due to my limited funds.

Kencana-cc : Sold her yesterday for DRB-cc. If I hv enough funds, of coz I wont need to change her.

2.20 pm : UP 7.73 points, window-dressing for few days towards new year?

Generally I m a trader, short-term and contra for CWs. I sold all my KFC-ca and jumped into something that is moving. I m a trader. A trader is defined as someone who trade - buy-sell-buy again and waiting to sell. To ask me to buy KimLun to keep NOW is silly ... I like something which are retracing to support. I like to buy low, sell high rather than buy high, sell higher(that is for my CWs). KimLun is a BUY at 1.40, 1.50 and start selling your 1.40 portions for 10% profits while waiting for the 1.50 level to be cleared at resistance. These are simple common-sense which NOT common in many KLSE-kaki. They will buy what have moved 10% or more, to be convinced that it has reversed? That only shows the LACK of knowledge in trading and also fundamentals of the stock(s) they are looking.

WHAT IF ... I buy now it goes down? WHAT IF ... I dod not buy it now and it shoots higher? WHAT IF ... what if .... with such uncertainties, and lack of confidence, we are half way to be defeated even before we go into the game!

Have you participated in ANY competitions at all you whole lives?? If not, you are missing so much of things in your entire life!!

Alam : Moving today, with Petra up too. Sold some at RM1.07. Nice. Need to tell my students WHY I bought it hugely at 0.90 and 0.94(they witnessed). Today it rebounds again ... nice. Say someone bought it from me at 1.07, later it goes back to 1.02, he/she will feel TRAP again. Arrghh ... KLSE is a scam!!

LionInd : At 2.04 now, see I told you so not to sell at RM2.00(with all those reasonings from TA, someone will come and tell me. I wonder if he bought into it at 1.79, lower than my 1.80?).

Petra : Someone mentioned her last night during the meeting, but I said I wont be in. I m NOT a TA person, Petra is not good for me but good for one-night-stand. Gain much today SELL.

WCT : When I discussed with my 'students' at RM3.00, I told them to do some homework and BUY. Only one person(of 7) prepared to take action. She bought at RM3 and I told her to sell at RM3.30(as she is away oversea for holiday). I bought back WCT-wb yesterday.

UEMLand : Yes, I told them in the meeting that UEMLand is a BUY yesterday but because CNX always wait for 4R1G or whatever bullish crossover, they are few days BEHIND my buying. By the time they move in, I m preparing to SELL. Understand?

Ramunia : One aunty asked about the chart as it shot up yerterday. I just chipped in - do you know it is in PN17? Do you know the meaning BEFORE you jump into it the next day simply because it shot up?

4.00 pm : KLCI up 13 points, bull is running ... Mudajaya and TanChong reversing.

4.35 pm : Today is a SELL day ... SELL SELL ... no no, buy or bye?

5.10 pm : KLCI up 9 points but my KFC not doing well ... well, it is forming a hammer today! Yeah!! DRC-cc is an in-correct decision so far as I sold my MHB-ca and Kencana-cc too early. Yeah, I sold them for UEMLand-cc. You cant have it all, I guess.

Time for a nap ... zzz ...

TEH

Monday, December 20, 2010

Waterfalls of KLCI-linked counters.

Genting : RSI still at 44, waiting for RM10 then.



MAS : Closed at RM1.94 with RSI at 30. Watching RM1.85 level, a good entry point. MAS = Mana Ada Sistem for so long now ... could they compete with LCC?



PBB : Closed at RM16.74 with RSI at 32. Stage one accumulating and two of my students 'following' me to buy into it today. Next level seen at RM16.10. Watching.



Tenaga : Closed at RM8.26, RSI at 35. Wait for RM8.00 and RSI below 25. The above is the weekly chart showing Tenaga supported at 200wk MA. I like Tenaga at current level. Move lower, please.

TEH
10.40 am : KLCI was down 4 points, now still down by 1.5 points. KFC in profit-taking mode. WCT moves above RM3.20, Sapcres above RM3 and DRB moving too. Gamuda-MMC in news again? KimLun has moved from RM1.40 t0 current RM1.58(more than 10% and I missed her too).

Coolest 'old' rap song by Coolio



DRB-cc : Grabbing her back. I sold her at 0.44 level last week or so. Grabbed at 0.41-0.42 now.

WCT-wb : Grabbed her back at 0.71. Queues at lower not done yet.

JCY : Still bleeding, cut off at cost price, as I prefer BStead again.

11.30 am : After thinking over, I m not getting the CDs but buying a new-mp3 player with my headphone instead. Yup, I do reward myself for working hard, perhaps Christmas is the best time to be a Santa to myself. haha.

Donation : I donated RM100 to an orphanage thru a church charity drive in IOI-Puchong mall. Well, I promised myself that I will like to donate RM200 next year and increase from there yearly. The RM100 will be used to buy school-uniform to the kids(indian - race never matter to me). Yes, I want my kids to learn to give. We all have shown that we can take, can we show we could give too?

PPB : KLCI down 6 points now. PPB at 16.80.I m queueing at 16.78. This will be the first level in buying her and also the first time I m buying her.

PPB : Done at 16.78. Welcome, babe.

3.30 pm : Sold MHB-ca on Friday, today up 12% now. Oucch. Changed it with Kencana-cc, selling today for small profits and grabbing DRB-cc instead.

11.30 pm : Came back from CNX's meeting today, the last for this year. NIce teh-chatting with some kaki there. The main topic : When is the election?


TEH
Monday morning ... preparing for the trading. What's next?

My 'old' reader and blogger : Remnant

Remnant : I'm amused that yr father-in-law has decided to live and leave his life to fate/luck (no offence to him or yr wife).. Rather unfortunate cos he din capitalise/leverage on his son-in-law ability to grow his wealth. It would have been a luck/fate-changing experience.

TEH : I m not amused by his attitudes as I could see that he doesnt care much about growing his money. In fact, due to his illness(and couldnt continue his work - he is employed by a smallish construction company in Tawau), he could not earn now and without anything much to support himself. I told my wife that I wont mind taking in her two old parents as somehow I have soft-part for older people. He has nothing left in his hand at the moment. He has spent his little EPF on buying the 'dreamt' truck 4 years ago and was forced to sell it off due to financial dire. I have also been quiet back in Sabah as I know these people do not know how to plan anything about money. It is not a surprised that my wife learnt those 'bad habits' of using money(and doesnt care much about financial) from them. She has changed so much after knowing me but ... believe me, it is never easy to tell these people about earning, saving ... and invest?

Remnant : Chinese tend to have this ideology that luck/fate governs and there's absolutely nothing we can do abt it. But Gospel ideology tells us that God can help us change our fate/luck and that ideology is renewing, reviving, progressive. In the Gospel, God does gives man & woman the much needed abilities to change the course of their fate/luck and shape their destiny (present & afterlife), sometimes for worse and at times for better.

TEH : Yeah ... human in general(not only Chinese) will leave things to 'fate' or 'luck' as if they are not in control of their own lives. This is a serious issue of not taking responsibilities. Well, taking responsibilities need a person to be mature, to grow with rational thoughts, to take the blame when they are in-wrong, to accept others weaknesses and help to complement on most situations. To me, taking responsibilities are being ADULT. Being mature enough to take charge of their own living. That is still what I m trying to do. If I have to teach my kids one important value, besides being honest, will be taking responsibilities. It is like trading/investment too, we take full responsibilities in our gains or losses. Again, these are easier said than done. Itis always easier to point fingers on others, on weather, on everything else if we could not achieve anything much out of our own expectations. We all could change our destiny by the grace of God.

Remnant : I've had my share of reasoning w/ many of these relative uncles and aunties. Deep inside they're angered cos they dont know how to participate on the winning side so it's easier to throw up their hands and surrender to luck/fate. My challenge has always been kind and simple. Deposit RM50,000 for a year and I promise 10% return if KLCI continues uptrend, 4.5% if KLCI flat and refund if market reverses.

TEH : Yeah ... I suspect that he is 'angered' internally seeing some of his friends successfully in financial terms while he could not. Seeing some other people getting more or better projects while he is still struggling to work in small projects. What many do not understand is that it is their own doings!! we are our own enemy. Many of times I do realise previously why I m such a 'financial idiot'. I did not even try to use my God-given brain. I have reversed all those by simply taking charge. No point to have 'anger' in us and start to blame on everyone, everything else. Let us all take this 'motivation' into a new 2011 year. well, I wont promise anyone around me anything yet ... and in fact NONE of my family members interested with what I m doing. I m still seen as 'gambling' my money, my kids' future away!! I never want to speak about investments or markets with anyone around me(except my wife, of coz).

Remnant : Invite yr father-in-law for "luck-changing" experience, what say you.? RM30,000 w/ 8% return within a year, anything beyond is yours. Given time, he'll come to financial sense and realise his son-in-law is no ordinary investor.

TEH : He has no money at all in his hand now, no insurance too. He is here for lung-cancer treatment. I m trying to help as much as I could. My wife has to drive him to Nilai Cancer Center everyday for therapy. One day, I could only hope THEY will appreciate my in-direct contributions. It is difficult to make a person appreciate your good deeds when they took your(and generally everything) for granted. Just hope he will be well.

Oh yes, only my aunties who are like moms to me trusted some of their money to me to 'grow'. I bought BJToto for them to get some dividends. My deals are better ... you all take all the dividends. And since I bought at RM4.20(2k units), let me know whenever you all need to withdraw the money one week in advance. If I sell it below RM4.20, I will cover the losses. If I sold it above RM4.20(I m targetting to sell all at RM4.50 and above and grab something else, like PBBank or YTLPower for dividends), full profits are theirs! They are in sure win situation! Of coz, I love them ... they are 'moms' to me. I dont gain from my own family members.

I remember last year Dec, I sold half of my Qinfa(0866.hk) to them at HKD2 and sold all at HK2.60 for 30% profits in less than two months, they were very glad. I was treated with home-cook mee-siam. Haha. Recently, I bought TopGlove for them at RM5.50(1k) and RM5(1k) now. My guarantee still the same, I will cover any losses if they need to sell. In fact, I will buy from them if they dont want it anytime at all. haha. I have offered my aunties 10% return p.a irrespective of market up or down. But, they prefer to invest in the stocks through me. No one else has any deal with me, as I dont wish to manage anyone's money YET. I m still very much a novice. Given time, another 3 years or so, IF I could really make it thru to show some decent results, people around WILL make some financial senses. At the moment, even if I want to 'help' with kind heart, they might thing I m up to something 'fishy'? And stock-market is viewed as a place for losers to gamble!!

p/s : My father was a gambler, so 'gambling' will face strong resent in our family. I m seen as following my father's footsteps? He gambled in snooker-game, cards, football-game etc etc. Since when gamblers gain money?

Remnant : Meanwhile, just be happy & be at peace w/ yr father-in-law. Blessed Christmas, old fren.

TEH : We are at peace, of coz. Blessed Christmas to you too. Thanks for being a friend. Hope to keep more in touch with you and share more of investing ideas with your kind self, sir. God bless.

TEH

Sunday, December 19, 2010


An open letter to Oprah Winfrey

OPTIMISTICALLY CAUTIOUS By ERROL OH

DEAR Oprah (does anyone address you as Miss Winfrey?),

How fantastic it must feel to be among the 300 viewers you have taken along on Oprah's Ultimate Australian Adventure! Only you would do something like this for fans an eight-day, seven-night holiday Down Under to kick off the farewell season of your show. These lucky people will go home with priceless memories, but they won't be the only ones to gain from this trip of a lifetime, as you described it. By the way, that phrase is a certified cliche, but coming from you, it sounds just right.

By taping at least two episodes of The Oprah Winfrey Show throughout Australia, you're giving the country's tourism industry an enormous boost.

I'm sure you're aware that there are those who don't fancy the idea of Australia spending as much as A$5mil to basically host your show. Not that you're the sort of person who lets such shallow criticism bother you, but how can the sceptics ignore the potential returns from the massive publicity Australia will get when the episodes are aired early next year? Haven't they heard of the Oprah Effect? Don't they know that every time you feature or even mention (in a positive manner, of course) a product or a service in your show, the sales of the product or service will invariably spike?

You said this to the Australian media: It is immeasurable what four hours of a love festival about your country broadcast in 145 countries around the world can do. Actually, at least one firm of experts reckons there's indeed a way to put a number to the benefit to be reaped from Oprah's Ultimate Australian Adventure.

Brand Finance, a London-based brand valuation consultancy, has estimated that Australia's tourism revenue alone will increase by several hundred million dollars over the next three years due to the Oprah Effect. That's a glorious payback for an industry that's fretting over a decline in inbound travellers caused by the strengthening Australian dollar.

I know, I know, you don't need to be reminded that you have serious economic clout. So here's my point: the Malaysian stock market we call it Bursa Malaysia needs your Midas touch. Before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, our market had been among the most vibrant in the world, helped in a big way by the inflow of foreign funds. The trading volumes had often been staggering and the total value of our listed companies at times had usually exceeded those of most other bourses in the region.

At the height of the crisis, some of our Government's measures were terribly unpopular with the foreign investors and they voted with their feet. Many of them have continued to stay away or have been wary since. This is despite the fact that Malaysia has moved on with liberalisation and deregulation, and that corporate governance here has vastly improved. Our equities market is a laggard in the region and that's frustrating.

A widespread view is that Bursa Malaysia suffers from poor perception and low visibility. Oprah, you can fix this. An episode of your show that spotlights our stock market will do wonders towards correcting the mistaken notions of the foreign funds. I already have a title for it: Oprah Visits Bursa. It's not brilliant, but I think it's catchy.

Please don't take this the wrong way your team of producers and writers are obviously top-notch but I'd like to offer a few ideas for segments for such an episode:

Corporate makeovers

Don't we all love those dramatic reveals at the end of TV makeovers, when we marvel at the before-and-after shots? We're hooked on the idea that Average Joes and Janes can emerge as beautiful people, and that cluttered and drab homes can be reconfigured into chic, shiny spaces. In this episode, the subjects of transformation are financially distressed listed companies (and we do have quite a few to choose from). Get ace turnaround specialists the more telegenic and loquacious the better; a good candidate is somebody like Dr Oz, only in a suit instead of scrubs and let them work their magic.

The wrongdoers tell all

You're at your best when conducting soul-baring interviews. It's the way you reach out to your guests with easy warmth and an open heart. People just want you to understand and like them. That's why you're the perfect person to elicit the truth from corporate Malaysia's fraudsters, convicted or otherwise. I'm convinced that midway through a session with you, they would be ready to divulge their Swiss bank account numbers, the names of the people holdings shares on their behalf and the target prices of the counters they plan to manipulate next. And because you're Oprah, few of them can resist the opportunity to appear on your show.

TV therapy

Lots of people turn to your show for healing and salvation. So why can't investors who have been badly burnt, do the same? You won't have a problem finding punters who need your assistance. You have those who simply can't pass up the chance to profit from surefire share tips, those who buy stocks without a clue about the companies' fundamentals, and those who steadfastly ignore red flags and warnings from regulators. You can change their lives by bringing tough yet persuasive gurus who can make these investors see the error of their ways. Then again, you know very well that you can only help those who are willing to help themselves. Nevertheless, even an on-air hug from you will make this world a better place.

Reminiscences of longtime market participants

Some of your most memorable episodes are when you get people to look back at significant events and to talk about how they have fared since. The emotional timbre of such segments is powerful stuff and makes for great entertainment. I suggest that you round up some retail investors, dealers, analysts and fund managers who have been around for about two decades. There won't be a dry eye in the studio and in the homes tuning in, as we share the guests' yearning for a repeat of the super bull run of 1993/94, when contra trading was the game of the day and when share prices rose to statospheric levels. And then we feel their pain during the tumult of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the persistent uncertainty of today's global economy and markets. Don't forget your hanky, Oprah.

Women in the Malaysian boardroom

Because you've been on the forefront of women's issues all this while, it's apt that you assemble a panel to focus on the lack of the feminine touch in the boards of directors of listed companies here. Some people believe that companies make bad decisions partly because there are so few women directors. That's definitely a topic you'd want to dive into. I'm excited about the prospect of a verbal slugfest. But that depends on the mix of panellists and on whether a public discussion of the topic can be deemed a threat to national security. Go ahead and laugh, Oprah; yes, it's a joke (but not a very good one).

Can companies pass the Oprah audit?

You randomly choose 10 listed companies. Next, you hire accountants, lawyers, valuers, consultants and other experts to scrutinise publicly available information on these companies and to investigate their operations. The aim is simple to verify whether the facts and figures support what the companies are saying. The financial results are an obvious starting point, but the detective work can extend to areas such as business dealings, governance standards, corporate policies and sustainability practices. You can bet that a lot of company bosses will be quaking in their boots.

The possibilities are endless, Oprah. Do the episode and you'll be doing Malaysia a big favour. Please have your people call my people. Let's talk or do lunch, or both.

Yours sincerely,

Errol

P.S. Would it help if I told you that Martha Stewart was over here last May as a guest of Tourism Malaysia, our equivalent of Tourism Australia? And to think that she had been in prison for securities-related offences!

His mother is an Oprah fan, but deputy executive editor Errol Oh is more of a dispassionate observer, fascinated by the talk-show host's ability to consistently translate cultural impact into commercial success without selling out.

Copied by TEH

Source : The Star
It is Sunday morning ... I woke up 6.30 am as I have many things to do. I have to work whole today too.

e-mail and sms : I have to ignore those asking me to analyse THEIR stocks and also asking for opinions on their counters. Some even asked about the target prices of their holdings. Sorry, you are look for a wrong person. In my opinion, it is NOT possible for me to entertain everyone's needs and it will be very in-correct to even give an opinion on your stocks. So, I m sorry that I m TOO BUSY to answer such request. My general advice is for those who dont know much about stock-market and still losing is to cut-losses(or take profits) on all your holdings, save the cash in banks and unit-trust ... while slowly LEARN about FA, then some TA.

Am i seen as arrogant again if I said it in a nicer way? Simple logic and I hv written about it in many posts. I do not want to repeat my words. Buying through rumours and dont know what you are doing will not lead you to anything much. LEARNING takes time, takes a lot of effort and yes, money too. If you taken years for your degree to WORK(for money?), I dont see WHY you do not wish to acquire some knowledge BEFORE you are in market.

Hope I m clearing myself again for not entertaining those requests. I m not arrogant, I m busy and also feel it will be in-correct of me to give my comments. Hope many of those asking around could understand.

Stock market : A matter of luck?

I have a slight arguement with my father-in-law. He has been staying here for weeks now and been looking at me working hard on my charts. I have asked my wife NOT to expose anything I m doing to him. He knows NOTHING about money and certainly know nothing about stock-market.

Yesterday he made a blatant remark "Stock market is pure LUCK. If you are lucky, you just need to buy one counter, and you get rich". I was like ... old-man, you dont know anything much, just keep quiet-la. But, if I m saying such, I will be seen as rude. So, I just point it out to him that his view of stock-market is too shallow.

You see, he knew many uncles(his friends in Sabah) talking about stock-markets and shares almost everyday. In 1993, he said ... one of his friend profitted so much by buying a stock called 'Sugar-bun' and he was VERY lucky. Then, many of his friends follow hiw buying into 'sugar-bun' and initially profitted hugely. Then, came the crash .... most of his friends(above 60 now) still licking their wounds and cursing the friend who proffitted. They dont have the LUCK. It is destined who to profit and who to lose, they claimed.

My father-in-law said he dont have the luck, never want to know anything to do with stock-market. But he said, if he know 1993 is a bull run, he is rich now. Just NO LUCK.

Yes, I could get upset speaking to these people who see those profitting from markets are CROOKS and with lots of LUCK.

I started to argue with him that his friends know nothing about stock-markets. They are PURE punters. And their attitudes are their MAIN hindrance. He gets defensive and repeated his statement - it is PURE luck, ok? If you are born in this year, that month .. it is WRITTEN that you are born without luck in share-market.

Beh-tahan .. and my wife have to cool-me off. Yeah ... it is stupid of me to even discuss anything about markets with him. I did not bring up the issue, he did. He was 'keh-poh' to ask how I m doing in stock-market and when I answered 'quite ok', he splashed the cold-water by saying I m lucky to gain. His friends lost their fortunes!!

Anyway, this is just a sharing about HOW normal uncles/aunties LOSING money and view stock-market : A place to GAMBLE and try their LUCK. Check point ... are you ONE of THEM?

You are one of them if :

1. You bought a counter but dont know nuts about their business.
2. You bought a counter because your friend is buying into them and profitted.
3. You never learn about FA and of coz you thought you know TA.
4. You are still losing money and dont know what is called cut-loss.
5. You brag about the counters you profitted(a little) to your friends but you dont know how you gain, actually. It was pure luck.
6. You read a headline in news or blog, you buy into it and HOPE(and pray) it will shoot the sky.
7. You dont know why a stock could go up or down.
8. You are only interested with profit and see if you are lucky to strike.
9. You will blame everyone, everthing when you lose some money except YOURSELF.
10. You think that you are the best stock-picker when you profitted.
11. You are asking around for opinions in forums, blog, friends except asking youself.
12. You feel the pain of selling for losses and didnt even know or bother to know why you lost.
13. You feel the pain of buying for small profits and didnt even know why it refuses to move higher AFTER you bought into it.
14. You feel 'trap' each time you bought into a stock as it WILL move lower the next day.
15. Add in another 50 pointers as afterall there are 80-90% of them still losing money in such a bull market.

5.50 pm : Tired ... I got wet as it rained on me when I was on the way home. Can I blame it on LUCK that it happened to rain at 5.15 in Subang Jaya here when I m on my way home in my kap-cai? Should I be saying that "If only office allow me to go off earlier than everyone else as it is going to rain around 5.15pm? Or perhaps I should blame it on the rain ... yell all you want at the rain, and when it makes senses to you, you will realise that it is something you have to ACCEPT and take pre-cautions or steps. Blaming on everything and everone else WILL NOT make situation better. M0ve on ...




TEH