Thursday, December 31, 2009


2010 : I will be moving more of my funds to China's stocks.

9.15 am : Rubberex turn ... up now. Time to think to SELL. Supermax sold again.

10.30 am : Ruberex sold at 2.20 for 10% profits. Qinfa up to 2.50 level now, selling at 2.60 for 30% profits. Year end sales ...

2.15 pm : Rubberex flying ... grabbed more, and ride on it for a while, ready to sell again.

4.15 pm : At airport but AirAsia delay the flight(again). Good trades on Rubberex to cover my flight tickets, my taxi fare later, my dinner ... perhaps some supper tonight.

Alert : MAS is dropping ... flight delay too? I m going to grab some MAS, will fly MAS more often then. Haha. hmm ... right-issues which are not so right.

Alert : HiapTeck is asking for my attention. I m cleared of rubber ... going back into steel? LionInd reaching 1.40 today.

Happy New Year.

TEH

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

5.25 pm : KLCI down 4.10 points, HSI almost unchanged.

Oil-stocks : Sapcres, Kencana, Dayang and even KNM showing upward movements for the past few days. Sapcres in profit-taking mode today after shooting to 29-months high(reported in Bloomberg).

11.50 am : DOW is flat, slightly in reds.

Alert : Gamuda, MAS, POS, Astro, YNH.

CW : Maybank-cm 0.12(L), Gamuda-cj 0.07(L)

Note : JAL going into bankruptcy? Wow ... how will that affect MAS, which dropped today too? China Air is doing OK.

I m too busy as I will be flying off to KL tmr. It is a new year eve ...

Happy new year to all.

TEH

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

10.30 am : Supermax and Adventa continue to move higher. Adventa cleared at 3.02. I have only Rubberex left.

12.45 pm : KLCI at 1271.48, SPSetia at 3.95 ... Jaks and Scomimr on profit-taking mode today. I hv asked my friend SL to take profits on SP-wb(she bought at 0.525 - now at 0.585) at 0.60. Anything up high, will come down(then buy!) ... placing a target to sell is an exit-strategy we need to learn. I have cleared Supermax and Adventa too early, but will only collect more when they back to the new higher support level.

Muhibah and Petra, another two huge waterfalls I mentioned are moving too ... Muhibah might break RM1 soon. Petra at 1.54 and Muhibah at 0.98.

For novices : Look into a counter that you like(FUNDAMENTALLY). Stalk and learn to read some charts.

I hv simplified a theory : Buy when it is oversold, sell when it is over bought.

I gave SPSetia and Kossan as examples to SL.

SPSetia was affected by Dubai and Vietnam's news ... few local brokers have a SELL call, and obviously it came down from 4.40 level to 3.60 level. SPSetia-wb came down too. SPSetia with RSI below 30 at the price of 3.51-3.53 ... hovering at 3.60 level, before buying resume. Today it is at 3.90+ level, with RSI breaking 70. So, I sms-ed SL to SELL ... SPSetia-wb touched 0.48, before moving higher to 0.58 level now.

Kossan is consider a laggard as rubber(especially Adventa and Supermax), but as SL bought below 4.90, at 5.15 now is still a HOLD. We shall prepare to SELL our holdings once it reaches the 'over-bought' level, and consider those 'over-sold' counters.

New Year's resolutions :

One of it will be - DO NOT DIVERSIFY, be focus ... and clear most of my KLSE's stocks. I will only focus in China's energy sector, with only 5 in mind at the moment to consider.


TEH

Monday, December 28, 2009

9.50 am : Bought some Ruberex at 2.00, with huge volume buying at 2.00 seen. As I m seeing Genting Spore attracts interest this morning, GenS-c1, c2 and c3 which I mentioned last night flying off. GenS at SGD1.24 now.

When I bought into Genting at 7.20 and BJToto at 4.20, LL followed but I dont know if any other of my friends followed. I SMS-ed a few of them, dont know if I m doing them a favour or making a mistake if market goes against my call. I dislike to be placed in such a situation. So, I hv made it clear to my friends that they are buying at their OWN risks, but if they gain/profit ... dinner on them. I will have many free dinners! hehe.

Genting and BJToto are good counters to hold - and they give dividends too. At the moment, Genting will move due to the anticipated Genting Spore(RWS) opening, while BJtoto supported well at 4.15, should attracts investors seeking for 'safer' portfolios with such uncertain environment.

I wont dare to ask any of my friends buying into what I m buying, such as call-warrants or even property-stocks.

2.45 pm : KLCI up 5.5 points.

3.20 pm : Supermax flying AFTER lunch ... at new high of 4.30 now. Adventa is following, I bought some Adventa and Ruberex today, and seeing to clear Supermax.

Will clear Adventa at RM3 level again.

Jaks and Muhibah are moving today. TAGB too.

Genting breaking 7.40 and BJtoto breaking 4.30 today. Good ... re-look into BJToto-cd(bought more average down at 0.05) and Genting-co.

4.15 pm : Cleared Supermax at 4.39, buying back when it retraces. That is a 10% profits. It breached 4.40 level.

Qinfa up to 2.30 level, with 15% profits, but I m still looking at 30% to sell. While CWP at 0.86, I will like to clear it at 1.00.

Supermax : Incredible, it flew to 4.45.

As Supermax and Adventa flying very fast up, it is SELL to me. But, as I like rubber-stocks, I m buying those laggards such as Ruberex today. I may consider Latexx too. Harta, Topglove and Kossan moved too.

4.55 pm : KLCI up 8+ points.Many more moved up more than 5% today --- SELL SELL ... if you have bought the waterfalls such as Jaks, Scomimr ...

I m looking to sell BJToto-cd and Adventa tmr ... before new year. It is a year-end sales.

TEH

Sunday, December 27, 2009

10.55 pm : Arsenal just scored thru a very beautiful freekick by Fabregas. Villa is one of the top contender, and if Villa loses this one, Liverpool could close the gap. They won 2- 0 against Wolves this morning.

11.10 pm : Arsenal 2 Villa 0 - Fabregas scored again.

11.20 pm : Arsenal 3 Villa 0. Game over.

KLSE's Call-warrants

Besides two BJToto-cd and Sinopec-c5 call-warrants I m holding, and will start to buy into more of them once the mommies start to move again. BJToto moves higher, after touched 4.12-4.15 level ... and at 4.26 now. So, I will continue to collect its baby.

There are many with low premium ... but most of the mother-shares have appreciated very high, and expecting corrections. If one is bullish on Genting Spore opening soon, the GenS-c1, c2, c3 will attract interests. Evee Genting or GenM's call-warrants will move ... I m looking at Genting-co.
How about gold? We have GLD-c1.

I will still see upside on China's oil-stocks such as PetroChina, Cnooc or Sinopec. There are call-warrants attached to them, and I will like to grab some CNOOC-c5.

TM-ci at 0.08 is nice to me, but I dont see much upside on TM at the moment. Perhaps, Maxis-ca will be more attractive.

TEH

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Kawasaki - a nice bike of my choice. Priced at RM30k+

Time : 10.30 am Venue : Penampang Library

I m taking a pause from my packing, and in the library - for the last time, perhaps. I will be in KL in less than a week time, so ... I dont expect myself to be sitting here ... reading those magz. Anyway, I will still be back to KK on every weekend.

Fortune : Oct 26, 2009 - China buys the world

China is buying natural resources - Oil and Gas.

1. Rio Tinto - Chinalco and Alcoa buy a stake, 9% for USD14b
2. Addax Petroleum - Sinopec bought for USD7.5b
3. Standard Bank - ICBC purchased a 20% stake for USD5.6b
4. Morgan Stanley - CIC acquired 10% stake for USD5b
5. PetroKazakhstan - CNOOC took over for USD4.1b

Recently, Geely in control of Volvo, taken from Ford. And the list goes on ...

So, the year 2010 will continue to see more money flowing into China. I will still like to focus on buying more of its energy-related stocks. Those China's energy stocks traded in HKSE will outperform KLSE anytime next year. With that believe, I will like to buy more China's energy stocks. There are simply too many of them. NEP reaching for new high(PE below 11) and many more.

Another related sector is China alternative/renewable energy sector - Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuke ... thinking of it ... making me feel the huge potential when China's gov policies implemented and money flowing in. This is huge ... but which one should we consider? I simply like too many of them ... from LongYuan to Comtec Solar ... even DongFeng or Datang. Some China companies that listed in US or SGX also worth looking into. HUGE .. simply put.

Besides that, China auto-rally is still on ... leads by BYD. Geely. Denway, Greatwall, Brilliance, DongFeng and many more in my list have appreciated 100-300% for the past months. Brillaince was at 0.80 two months ago ... today it is at HKD2.23 level. Geely was at 1.80 when (JP or GS? I forgotten) bought into it ... today it is at HKD4.26 level ...

5.15 pm : I m selling off my beach apartment(if possible) for a 40% loss. This is a 'cut-loss', tho not urgent, in order to buy something which might appreciate in value. Yeah ... it is quite unlikely I will be back to KK to stay once I m back to KL. I will KK my main vacation destination. And since I love beach so much, I will consider one apt in PD(Port Dickson). Anyway, I will miss Sabah, my nice apt which is a stone-throw away to the nice beach.

Accepting my mistakes(of buying the apt in the first place), and to learn how to invest wisely in properties. Yup, it is something I m going to learn ...

As I m seeing myself to earn more, I hope I could be able to save more per month, and to put it into some form of investments. At the moment, I could still see a huge potential in China's energy sector and will accumulate more of my CWP or buy into a solar stock.

As for KLSE ... I m too diversified - with E&O, TA, TAGB, TAS, LionInd, Genting, BJToto, Supermax in hand. And I still have Muhibah, Sunway and Fajar in mind. Hmm ...



TEH

Friday, December 25, 2009

ChiNext

China's NASDAQ-like bourse, ChiNext, was off to a flying start in Shenzhen on Friday.

So high was the investors' response that trading in the shares of all the 28 companies had to be halted for 30 minutes at least once after they rose 20 percent over their opening prices, setting off circuit breakers and underscoring massive speculation in the nascent market for start-ups.

Cable TV equipment maker Chengdu Geeya Technology Co's shares were suspended from trading thrice after they jumped more than 80 percent.

Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co and Beijing Ultrapower Software Co were the most expensive stocks on the first day of trading. Both crossed the 100-yuan ($16) mark, with Tianjin Chase closing at 106.5 yuan and Beijing Ultrapower at 102.9 yuan against their IPO prices of 60 yuan and 58 yuan.


Based on their closing prices, ChiNext companies are trading around 100 times their price-to-earnings ratio.

The long-awaited ChiNext is expected to give small- and medium-sized enterprises access to funds and encourage private equity companies and venture capitalists to back start-ups, with regulators hoping it would help the growth of companies with high potential, especially young ones.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has adopted regulations to curb excessive speculation, which say trading in newly listed shares will be suspended for 30 minutes if their values rise or fall 20 percent from their opening prices, and for another 30 minutes if they move 50 percent either way. And if a company's share moves 80 percent either way from its opening price, it will be suspended from trading until the final 3 minutes of the session.

Though the shares rose sharply on the opening day, some analysts said next week's trading is very likely to see a correction.

"The average price-to-earnings ratio of the 28 companies' shares was more than 56 times during their IPOs, already too expensive to deserve purchasing when they started trading on ChiNext," said Ian Midgley, chief executive of Aries Investment Management (Shanghai), who was discouraged from trading in the high-risk stocks.

Midgley, who manages a private fund investing in the A-share market, said he did not buy any of the 28 stocks because it was not an investment based on true value.

"I'm not surprised to see excessive speculation. The same thing happened to Hong Kong's GEM (Growth Enterprise Market) before," said Ben Kwong, head of research at brokerage house KGI Asia.

"The new board is catering upstart companies with a new business concept, which is prone to attract many investors, but the market will cool down after some time," Kwong said.

Earlier, speaking about ChiNext's launch, Shang Fulin, chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said risk-control should be a priority in the new market.

The sharp rise in prices made it hard for small investors, who had bought new shares of the 28 companies at their IPOs, to hold on to them any longer.

"I sold my shares very early. I should have waited a little longer," said a Beijing-based investor, surnamed Zhou, who got an allotment of Dayu Water Saving Co's shares at 14 yuan each and sold them at 25 yuan soon after trading started.

But not all investors are keen to jump into the ChiNext market despite the bourse taking off on a dazzling note.

"The prices are outrageously high now and there is a strong speculative sentiment in the market. I'll wait and see how it develops," said Chen Xiangxing, a Beijing-based investor.

copied from : China Daily
KLSE : Largest Stocks by Market Value

Source: Bloomberg, in billions of RM,

Data updated on 30 November 2009

1.Sime Darby Berhad (MYX: 4197) - RM53.24
2.Malayan Banking (MYX: 1155) - RM47.21
3.CIMB Group (MYX: 1023) - RM44.71
4.Public Bank (MYX: 1295) - RM37.71
5.Tenaga Nasional Bhd (MYX: 5347) - RM36.49
6.IOI Corp Bhd (MYX: 1961) - RM33.62
7.MISC Bhd (MYX: 3816) - RM33.16
8.Genting Group (MYX: 3182) - RM26.82
9.Axiata Group Berhad (MYX: 6888) - RM24.74
10.Petronas Gas Bhd, a subsidiary of Petronas (MYX: 6033) - RM19.35
11.Perlis Plantations Bhd (MYX: 4065) - RM17.95
12.DiGi Telecommunication(MYX: 6947) - RM16.98
13.PLUS Expressway Berhad (MYX: 5052) - RM16.50
14.Genting Malaysia berhad (MYX: 4715) - RM16.24
15.Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (MYX: 2445) - RM16.01
16.AMMB Holdings Bhd (MYX: 1015) - RM14.24
17.YTL Corporation Bhd (MYX: 4677) - RM13.83
18.YTL Power International Bhd(MYX: 6742) - RM12.84
19.British American Tobacco Malaysia Bhd (MYX: 4162) - RM12.83
20.Hong Leong Bank Bhd (MYX: 5819) - RM11.84
21.RHB Capital Bhd (MYX: 1066) - RM11.61
22.Telekom Malaysia (MYX: 4863) - RM10.80
23.Petronas Dagangan Bhd, a subsidiary of Petronas (MYX: 5681) - RM8.84
24.Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad (MYX: 4707) - RM7.78
25.MMC Corporation Berhad (MYX: 2194) - RM7.61
26.UMW Holdings Bhd (MYX: 4588) - RM7.03
27.Hong Leong Financial group Bhd (MYX: 1082) - RM7.61
28.Astro All Asia Networks (MYX: 5076) - RM6.42
29.Gamuda Berhad (MYX: 5398) - RM6.35
30.IJM Corporation Berhad (MYX: 336) - RM6.34


Events

On March 10, 2008, trading on the exchange was suspended for one hour due to composite index fall by more than 10 percent or 130 points to 1166.32 points. This was largely by combination of factors such as the United States Subprime mortgage crisis and the political uncertainty caused by the 12th General Election. Dealers expected the move was an overreaction to the election results and the market will correct itself.The index gained 2.1% the next day on the morning session as investor reinvest in plantation stocks and blue chips.

On July 3, 2008, trading on the exchange was suspended for the day when it suffered multiple hardware glitches. The glitches only affected the equities market, not the bonds and commodity market.Trading resumed the next day.

copied from : WikiPedia
NASDAQ 100 (in alphabetical order)

This list is current as of December 21, 2009.

1.Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
2.Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)
3.Altera Corporation (ALTR)
4.Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
5.Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
6.Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL)
7.Apple Inc. (AAPL)
8.Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
9.Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
10.Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)
11.Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU)
12.Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)
13.Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB)
14.BMC Software, Inc. (BMC)
15.Broadcom Corporation (BRCM)
16.C. H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
17.CA, Inc. (CA)
18.Celgene Corporation (CELG)
19.Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH)
20.Cerner Corporation (CERN)
21.Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)
22.Cintas Corporation (CTAS)
23.Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
24.Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS)
25.Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH)
26.Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
27.Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
28.Dell Inc. (DELL)
29.DENTSPLY International Inc. (XRAY)
30.DIRECTV (DTV)
31.DISH Network Corporation (DISH)
32.eBay Inc. (EBAY)
33.Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS)
34.Expedia, Inc. (EXPE)
35.Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
36.Express Scripts, Inc. (ESRX)
37.Fastenal Company (FAST)
38.First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
39.Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)
40.Flextronics International Ltd. (FLEX)
41.FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR)
42.Foster Wheeler Corporation (FWLT)
43.Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
44.Genzyme Corporation (GENZ)
45.Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
46.Google Inc. (GOOG)
47.Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC)
48.Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)
49.Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
50.Infosys Technologies (INFY)
51.Intel Corporation (INTC)
52.Intuit, Inc. (INTU)
53.Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
54.J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
55.Joy Global Inc. (JOYG)
56.KLA Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
57.Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
58.Liberty Media Corporation, Interactive Series A (LINTA)
59.Life Technologies Corporation (LIFE)
60.Linear Technology Corporation (LLTC)
61.Logitech International, SA (LOGI)
62.Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. (MRVL)
63.Mattel, Inc. (MAT)
64.Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)
65.Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP)
66.Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
67.Millicom International Cellular S.A. (MICC)
68.Mylan, Inc. (MYL)
69.NetApp, Inc. (NTAP)
70.News Corporation, Ltd. (NWSA)
71.NII Holdings, Inc. (NIHD)
72.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
73.O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
74.Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
75.PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)
76.Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
77.Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
78.Priceline.com, Incorporated (PCLN)
79.Qiagen N.V. (QGEN)
80.QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
81.Research in Motion Limited (RIMM)
82.Ross Stores Inc. (ROST)
83.SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)
84.Seagate Technology Holdings (STX)
85.Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD)
86.Sigma-Aldrich Corporation (SIAL)
87.Staples Inc. (SPLS)
88.Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
89.Stericycle, Inc (SRCL)
90.Symantec Corporation (SYMC)
91.Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA)
92.Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
93.VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)
94.Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
95.Virgin Media, Inc. (VMED)
96.Vodafone Group, plc. (VOD)
97.Warner Chilcott, Ltd. (WCRX)
98.Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)
99.Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX)
100.Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)

Year 2009 is coming to the end. with what is called 'easy money' being made in markets. While many believe we are on track to recovery, stock markets have factored-in such expectations. Much more than that, I believe. So, the upside in KLSE will be limited, coming 2010.

Time to remember Warren Buffett, the father of value-investing. That could be WHY I m looking into Genting(on its anticipated opening of Genting Singapore) and BJToto. These are more defensive and resilient, while playing on dividend yields, rather than expecting the stock prices to double in 2010. The downside risk for KLSE is definitely more REAL. So, no more being offensive but defensive will be the theme.

Rubber stocks should outperform KLCI, and more upside seen. I will still like to look into them. But, I doubt constructions and properties stocks will rebound strongly in 2010, perhaps only after 2H. According to W.Buffett, it is a common mistake of an investor to TIME the markets. We should be buying good under-valued stocks. KLSE generally is over-valued and to find an under-valued stock using Buffett's concepts? We shall check on it ... while I will like to see another round of huge corrections in constructions/properties before considering collecting more ... in 2010.

That will be my theme for 2010, as I will be too busy to monitor - and might not be able to blog as often as I would. I will post more of what I read ...

Warren Buffett is Born

Warren Edward Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 to his father Howard, a stockbroker-turned-Congressman. The only boy, he was the second of three children, and displayed an amazing aptitude for both money and business at a very early age. Acquaintances recount his uncanny ability to calculate columns of numbers off the top of his head - a feat Warren still amazes business colleagues with today.

At only six years old, Buffett purchased 6-packs of Coca Cola from his grandfather's grocery store for twenty five cents and resold each of the bottles for a nickel, pocketing a five cent profit. While other children his age were playing hopscotch and jacks, Warren was making money. Five years later, Buffett took his step into the world of high finance. At eleven years old, he purchased three shares of Cities Service Preferred at $38 per share for both himself and his older sister, Doris. Shortly after buying the stock, it fell to just over $27 per share. A frightened but resilient Warren held his shares until they rebounded to $40. He promptly sold them - a mistake he would soon come to regret. Cities Service shot up to $200. The experience taught him one of the basic lessons of investing: patience is a virtue.

to read more of his biography --- click HERE.
EDU : Education in China is booming ...

TEH

Thursday, December 24, 2009


Merry Christmas to ALL my friends and readers.

KLCI is flat with very low volumes as many in holiday. I m too ... hehe.

Petra and E&O make good trades this morning. Petra has been attracting bad news and uncertainties for weeks now. Is this rebound real? It is up 7% now. If one bought at 1.25 level last week, clearing at 1.40 level will be a ....nice trade.

BJTtoto-cd : As BJtoto showing signs of 'recovery', it touched 4.13 and at 4.26 now. I bought BJToto-cd at 0.05(a new low), to average down, and at 0.055 now ... could it go back to 0.10 level? I m seeing BJToto to be at 4.40+ before July 2010, the expiry date for its baby.

SPSetia-wb : My friend SL bought it at 0.52 level, and it went down to touch 0.48, I hv cleared mine much earlier with small losses - and today it is at 0.55 now(touched 0.56 just now). There is a new CW attached to it - SPSetia-cb, which up 5.5% now to 0.19.

10.15 am : Time to move away from my pc and do some real works.

Equine : At 0.385, breaking below this level, it will be time to re-look into this waterfall. Some waterfalls could NOT recover as fundamentally not strong or attractive in values. LCL is one counter in mind. How about Equine?


11.55 am : KLCI up 1.5 points, with very low turnover.

6.20 pm : KLCI up 3+ points. Genting at 7.31 and BJToto at 4.28. E&O traded actively, closed at 1.02 and LionInd at 1.28. Supermax at 4.14.

Petra up 10%, Jaks up 5% rebounded. While IJM up 8cents, its IJM-wb and IJM-wc up 5%.

Property - RPGT

The PM announced that the real property gains tax (RPGT) of 5% will now be applicable onlyto properties that are sold within 5 years of their purchase. The Government would forego revenue of RM200m from the abolishment of the guideline, previously announced in Budget 2010, which applied to all properties then as it wanted to see stronger growth in the property sector next year.

11.15 pm : DOW up above 10,500 level. USD up, Gold up above 1100 and crude oil up above 77.
Merry Christmas, anyway.

TEH

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Five Contrarian Investment Themes for 2010 and Beyond

It has been a rough decade for U.S investors. Stocks are coming off of their worst decade since records have been kept, going back to the 1820s when John Quincy Adams was president. If you invested near the height of the tech boom, you'd be down by at least 50%. Yet again, it turned out that the most-hated asset classes at the time -- emerging markets and commodities -- performed the best over the coming decade. Commodities were so out of fashion 10 years ago that Merrill Lynch actually wound up its commodities trading group. In 1999, Moscow was a virtual ghost town after Russia's economic meltdown. Yet, contrarian investors who stuck to their guns made over 60x their money between the Russian market's bottom and its peak in 2007.

We'd all love to say that we are contrarian. But it's easier said than done. Consider the case of hedge fund manager David Tepper, who, as reported in The Wall Street Journal, made $7 billion for himself and his clients in 2009. While some paranoid investors began heading for the hills of Montana in February, Tepper was gobbling up Citibank shares at an average price of 79 cents. His bet paid off handsomely, and his funds are up an eye-popping 120% this year. Whether Tepper was smart or just lucky is unclear. But the man certainly earned the brass testicles that adorn his desk.

Five Contrarian Investment Themes

Forcing yourself to think outside of the box is tough. We'd all like to think that we can think independently. Yet, we are overwhelmed with the same bits of contradictory (mis)information, overlaid by our own cognitive biases. To really hit a home run in investing, you almost have to be dismissed as a kind of a kook.

With that caveat, here are five contrarian themes for you to consider for 2010 and the decade beyond.

#1 Buy the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar regains it stature as the world's reserve currency of choice.

With the U.S. currency the whipping boy of global capital markets, it's hard to imagine why you would want to invest in the U.S. dollar. Economic rivals like China openly question whether the greenback can maintain its position as the world’s reserve currency. While the Greenback is down, it is not out. After a record four straight quarters of declines, the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.2% pace in the third quarter of 2009. Moreover, the economy is probably growing at nearly 4% in the October-to-December quarter. Throw in that the U.S. current account deficit has halved over the last year or so, and that the Greenback is substantially undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis, and the U.S. dollar's rally may mirror the U.S. economic recovery.

#2 Buy the U.S. Stock Market, Technology in Particular

The U.S. stock market -- long a laggard compared with foreign markets over the last decade -- will generate double-digit annual percentage returns that rival those of the roaring 1990s.

Betting on the U.S. economy is the top contrarian play on the planet. The fiscal profligacy of Washington, D.C., makes it hard to bet on the world's newest European-style socialist democracy. At the same time, tough times also often spark a mini-boom of innovation and entrepreneurial energy. New innovations in nanotechnology, green technology and biotechnology may unleash a creation of wealth that makes the transistor, PC, and Internet boom of the late 20th century seem like the buggy whip of yore. If history is any guide, there will be some new sector or technology -- much like the railroads, radio, or the Internet -- that will generate another boom-and-bust cycle of game-changing innovation. As one Brazilian observer said, "Don't expect Brazil to produce a Google or a Harvard. You need the U.S for that."

#3 Sell gold

The gold price will fall sharply as speculative capital exits.

Gold has been the main beneficiary of the weak dollar in 2009, with investors piling into bullion as an alternative store of value. The precious metal has surged 26% this year to $1,110. Permabear Marc Faber has predicted that gold will never see a level below $1,000 again. Some of the biggest hedge funds in the world have piled a significant chunk of their assets in gold-related plays.

Yet, assuming the global economy recovers, and inflation remains under control, gold's attraction as a store of value will quickly lose its glitter, and it will devolve quickly back to its former status as a "barbarous relic." The strengthening of the U.S. dollar also will undermine the speculative attraction of the yellow metal.

#4 Sell China and Selected Emerging Markets

China and Emerging Markets, while continuing to grow, won't be the one-way bet they were in the past decade.

Emerging markets have been both the top-performing sector of 2009 and the entire decade. With returns of 142% since 1999, it's easy to see why you'd expect the rise of Brazil, India and China will continue as far as the investment eye can see.

But as Warren Buffet says, markets pay dearly for a cheery consensus. The " China miracle" may be revealed to be a Ponzi scheme built on cheap credit, as Chinese banks' government-induced, easy lending generates its own, massive "subprime" problem. Once economic supermen, Chinese mandarins may be revealed as corrupt officials, not dissimilar to their predecessors in the Soviet Union. The demographics of China and Russia also will begin to weigh on their economic growth. Selective investment in the winners will be more important than ever.

#5 Buy Japan

Japan -- as the cheapest market in the world -- is the single best bet for global value investors

As much as Japan was hailed as the all-conquering hero in 1989, it now is derided as a cheap market that is destined to remain that way for a long time. Japan has become the "market that cries wolf." It has cried "recovery" too many times to count, yet it has just completed its second decade of lousy returns, a period of deflation and zero interest rates. A contrarian would bet that Japan's "animal spirits" miraculously improve, and after 20 years of underperformance, the Japanese stock market regains its mojo.

江蕙 - 落雨聲




TEH
DOW up 50points. KLCI opens in red and Adventa dives to 2.80 level. I sold it at 3.00 yesterday morning, and will be glad to grab some at 2.80 and below.

12.15 pm : KLCI down 1.3 points, Adventa shot up to 2.90 level, down to 2.87 now. A good counter to trade, so many using it to hv short-trades.

Alert : IJM at 4.32 and Jaks at 0.565

Hai-O : Breached resistance RM8 this morning(touched 8.19). Closed at 7.90, a buy.

巫啟賢-叫阮的名



This song is one of my fav, sang by my fav local-chinese-male-singer, Eric Moo. I watched the hokkien-karaoke competition, held in China now, last night. A Chinese-indon sang this song(badly) and being kicked out. There are 10 Malaysians in the competition for ths final.

4.05 pm : IJMLand at 2.17, I will like to look at it at 2.05 level.

SPSetia starts to move, and Sp-wb at 0.54 now. Time to sell if you bought at 0.48-0.49 level recently. Cool 10% gains.

5.55 pm : KLCI pushed up to close slightly up. BJToto at 4.26 and Genting at 7.27. Adenta at 2.83, and will consider when it keeps going lower. Supermax still hanging at 4.15.

6.20 pm : As I will be teaching at Subang Jaya, I will want to get a place(an apt) nearby, to set up a tuition place, and with huge student-populations, I believe I could get some students for a start. Mind you, I m a VERY GOOD and EXPERIENCED lecturer ... and will use my strength to my advantages.

In 2/3 years time, once I established the market there, I will be partnering my friend(a very good physics lecturer) to open a center nearby, and we could grab a huge market there. Not many GOOD Maths and Physics lecturers in A-level/SAM or Pre-U level.

I have been surfing the net for apt/condo for rent/sale daily for the past one month! So, I will be renting somewhere nearby - targetting Mentari Court, Lagoon Perdana or Subang Court.

Koi Tropika : A nice place to stay ... need to view before thinking of buying one there.

TEH

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Dr Faber, in the September issue of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report you said that the future will be a total disaster with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it. Three months later do you still stand by that assessment or did you underestimate the power of the governments to shore up the global economy?

Well, I think we had this huge intervention in the world but if you look at the cause of the financial crisis. The cause of the financial crisis was excessive credit growth and essentially the private sector has reacted rationally. After 2008, the private sector has reduced its leverage, in other words, the consumer credit is declining and business credit is also declining but this is being offset by a huge expansion of government credit. So total credit as a percent of the economy in the US is still growing. Now officially, the debt to GDP is 375%, it was 186% when the US went into depression after 1929. In other words, we start with a much higher debt level. In 1929 we did not have social security and we did not have Medicare and Medicaid and if you add this unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Medicaid and if you add Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that have been taken over by the government, we are talking about the debt to GDP of over 600%. In my opinion, in the long run, this is not sustainable. They will have to print money and the fiscal deficits will go up and the problem will be that one day when interest rates go up for whatever reason and may be next year or in three years time, the interest payments on the government debt will balloon and in say seven years time, the interest payments on the US government debt will be between 35% to 50% of tax revenues and when you are in a huge mess.

And so I believe that to get out of this mess, they will monetise and they will have all kind of stimulus packages and they will lead to high inflation and the standards of living of the typical household will go down and it will enrich a few people the elite essentially on Wall Street. But then to distract the attention, the US will escalate its war efforts and then all thing will collapse. But, you know, it can be in ten years time, could be in five years time, could be in three years time, could be 12 years time, who knows but that is essentially my long term very negative view. Now as an investor, you cannot sit there then I don't do anything at all because by being in cash you have zero interest so you have to do something and so I think that equities are probably a better place to hide than government bonds.


You have also said that somewhere in the future there will be a war and during what times commodity prices go up sharply, don't you think the threat of war is exaggerated given that nations have shown considerable restraint in international relations during this recession?

I think, the interest of the US and China are further apart than ever before because you have essentially declining superpower the United States and you have a rising superpower China and the current superpower the US will obviously try to contain the rise of China and China will want to have more say in global affairs and you can see their expansion everywhere in Latin America, in the Middle East even in the Indian Ocean, in East Africa and so forth. So that will lead to tensions. We are at war essentially in Iraq and we are at war in Afghanistan, Pakistan and these are wars in my opinion where there is no solution and this is not going to go away. It is going to escalate over time.

So does one then assume that you are still not very optimistic when it's comes to the US economy or the markets?

Basically, the problem of the United States is that they do not produce enough compared to the whole economy and that its net savings are very low. In other words if you have two countries or let's put it in more simple terms, you have two households or two businesses; one household spends everything it earns, one spends everything it earns pays out in dividends and borrows money to maintain the lifestyle of the owners of the family to buy a car, to buy a house, to buy appliances, mobile phones and so forth the other household or the other company - out of its earnings puts something aside and invest in education or in terms of a company in research and development or in new plans and in new machinery and so forth who do you think in the long run will be better off. Consuming means exactly what the word says consumption is you have a plate of food in front of you, you consume it then the food is gone and saving is to put it part of the food aside for the wintertime or for emergencies. So, in my opinion, US has badly abused its power to borrow money basically and has not saved at all in the last few years and obviously, in the long run, relatively speaking, your standards of living go down compared to countries like China and India where you have a high savings rate and where people then build factories and develop their infrastructure and develop the educational standards and so on. So if you look at 1950, the US is up here and the emerging economies are down here and now the US is still up here but is not up much and emerging economies stay close the gap, there is still a gap between the US and most emerging economies but you look at educational standards in the US, in many states of the US 20% of their people are illiterate you know this I mean horrible.

The recent rise in gold for the most part has been on the back of a weak dollar now that the dollar is strengthening should one get cautious on gold?

The dollar has been weak but the other currencies are not much better either because they are tied to the dollar one way or the other or they are not tied to the US dollar they have gone up against the US dollar but basically the ECP in Europe is also money printer and the EURO has many problems as well as other currencies that were strong against the US dollar. So what can happen is that essentially the dollar is very strong but gold still holds or even goes up. If you are a European or if you are Swiss may be you decide to shift some money into gold and especially we have now in the world $7 trillion in foreign exchange reserves up from a trillion in 1996. So we have gone up in the foreign exchange reserves, in international reserves seven times. The price of gold has had gone up seven times over that period of time and in Asia we have essentially central banks that hold including Japan 70% of the $7 trillion and they have by enlarge less than 2% of their reserves in gold. So I think that a lot of central banks will follow the example of the Reserve Bank of India. By the way, the Reserve Bank of India deserves applause they have done a very good job by enlarge, is very well run central bank.

Click here for more
DOW up 80+ points. Gold at below 1100, but it wont corrects below 1000.

It is the holiday season again ... the volumes will be thin. I will try to clear all my rubber stocks before new year, and will re-collect them when it corrects. At the moment, TopGlove is leading the pack.

While TA, LionInd and E&O still inching downwards, I have placed target prices for me to buy more(average down) on these. I will also be looking into Genting and BJToto, to buy and hold. Other than that, I hv nothing to buy and will be too busy to monitor.

9.10 am : As KLCI planted 11 points lower yesterday before closing, it is up 4 points at the moment. Adventa cleared at RM3.00. I have another Supermax to clear at 4.20. I will move-in rubber stocks again when they retraces. At the moment, just watch how high they could fly, or have a short trades on Adventa.

10.20 am : Today is my last day here. I will be busy shifting and packing this week. Hopefully, I could travel the WHOLE Sabah next week, before I say bye-bye to such a nice place to stay.

BRDB : This nice waterfall flew off from 1.35(written 1 week ago), and at 1.65 level now. I missed it again as I was NOT focusing.

3.05 pm : KLCI still up 4 points, Adventa moving down ... so, I m queueing at 2.85(and below).


When will I see you again




Alert : TAS at 0.68, Jaks at 0.58, AnnJoo-wb at 0.60, WCT-wb 0.555.

Alert : Sunway 1.23, IJMLand 2.24.

Sunway : I will like to grab Sunway below 1.15 and more at 1.00.

I hv grabbed some Genting at 7.20 and BJToto at 4.20. Will continue to change my portfolios to these two.

TEH

Monday, December 21, 2009

8.55 am : Monday morning ... tmr will be my last day in this school, saying bye-bye to some nice people here. Well, most of them are very nice(KK people generally are nice!) and if I have to pick a not-so-nice person, it could be ME. Hmm ...

I have been busy looking for a place(room/apt at Subang) to stay, with a view to buy a property in Subang/Sunway area in 3 years time.

9.10 am : Clearing my last hold of Supermax at 4.19. Will grab more rubber once it corrects. Still holding to some Adventa, will take profit soon. Shifting to laggard - Hartalega.

10.20 am : Low turnover ... RM135m only after 1.5 hours of trading.

11.05 am : KLCI down by 1.8 points.

12.30 pm : LCL buried lower. Jaks going below 0.60, Geely at 3.60(down 9%) but ZW back to HKD6 level. Lunch time ...

6.05 pm : KLCI lost 11.31, dived down in last 10 minutes trading? Why?

Bohemian Raphsody - Queen



One of my old-fav ... which I still like very much!

The person I respect - our lady-boss

I want to write about persons I respect and admire amongst my colleagues. As most of them are normal mortals, there are few exceptional ones - one of them is our CEO. She is a retiree from gov sector, and exhibits great sense of urgency in almost everything she is doing - with great alertness and awareness(being mindful of her doings). I will write more of her, as she deserves a high respect. A truly educationist in her heart, a true greatness in living lives in fullness ... and yes, hats-off. She is almost 60 now, but beats those in 40s(like me) flat when it comes to energy-level.


TEH

Sunday, December 20, 2009


Bernanke's Man of the Year Award Is Insulting

If there was ever any doubt that Bernanke is going to go down in history as more like Bob Uecker (baseball's loveable hack) than Hank Aaron (a true baseball legend), Time's Man of the Year Award should just about clinch it.

Not only has Bernanke nearly single handedly overseen a fivefold increase in lending capacity and more than doubled the national debt to $2.2 trillion within the last two years, but together with his sidekick, Turbo Tim Geithner, he's obligated our unborn great, great, great grandchildren to payments they can't possibly make - ever.

The only thing Bernanke has done during his tenure is guarantee that every American will see their economic future gobbled up by increasingly scarce economic resources and an increasingly unstable dollar whose long-term fundamentals have been destroyed. Period. The Fed is supposed to be independent of banks and politics as well as the markets.

At the same time, based on nothing more than the memory of the Fed's Depression-era mistakes, Bernanke's engaged in the reckless pursuit of bailouts and financial "engineering" (and I'm trying to be polite here because he is the sitting Fed Chairman) that benefits the big boys - big business, big banks, big autos, big everything.

Don't be fooled for a minute by the fact that Bank of America, Citi and even Wells Fargo are paying back their TARP funding. Yes it's good news and yes it makes for positive market conditions. But remember, it's business as usual for those guys. The only reason they're paying back their funding is because they don't want the bonus restrictions or further Fed meddling. Nothing's changed.

In reality, big banks just played the biggest round of liar's poker in history. By going to Washington and pleading for their very survival, they created the perception that their future was essential to ours. And Bernanke bought it hook, line and sinker despite the fact that history is littered with failed financial institutions. What people fail to realize is that the big banks were making the ultimate bet that regulators, legislators and Fed would not have the guts or be intelligent enough to do the thorough house cleaning that the markets wanted to do. And, unbelievably, the big guys won.

Meanwhile, average Americans continue to be treated like indigent morons by the very institutions whose collective rear ends we just bailed out of the hoosegow. Credit is tough to come by unless you're doing cash for clunkers, cash for big business or soon, cash for caulkers. Evidently, bailouts are great if you encourage spending by creating incentives that cause consumers to go further into debt!

I find it more than a little ironic that Time named Bernanke Man of the Year for having saved the day when the Fed's failure to adequately supervise the nation's banking system was a significant causal factor in the meltdown. Did Time's editors somehow miss that or do they not understand the economic reality of $2.2 trillion in debt either? My guess is both.

As my colleague Martin Hutchinson put it this week, "neither a one-shot wonder nor truly evil, [Bernanke] fits best into the category of losers, people whose achievements seem plausible at the time, but over the long term come to be recognized as spurious, causing more harm than good."

Written by Keith-Fitz-Gerald
12.25 pm : I was laughing out loud(LOL) reading Dali's writing about FACEBOOK!! haha ... just point on what I have in mind, pissed-off with many in facebook(and myself! Haha). But, he pointed out TRUE facts ... I will like to add later.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/12/facebook-makes-me-mad-sometimes.html

Allow me to laugh ... haha. He is speaking my mind.

TEH

ZhongWang (code : 1333.hk) : I spent last night going thru ZhongWang's Annual Reports, and it shows very positive data. Currently the stock price is diving ... it could be due to more BAD news printed in media in China, regarding their mis-leading info in their propectus during their IPO listing. Well, could these be temporary? It is overly sold and at new LOW now, below its IPO price. I m seriously thinking about this one ... as I like waterfall, I like temporary bad news, I like company with increasing profits/revenues and cash-in hands, I like Aluminium business(it is the largest in China) which being used in auto-sector. China is coming up big in aviation(making planes), and that needs lots of aluminium.

The prices of Al has been depressed ... but with more business activities expected next year(in China, at least), prices of AL will rebound. Will ZW benefit from that? I m seeing a huge potential here, moving forward.

By the way, its chairman is one of the richest man in China. If in Malaysia, we always like Robert Kuok's counters or AK's counters ... then, this man, Liu Zhong-tian certanly carries weights. That is how I see it, at this moment.

Chart-wise, it touched HKD5.51 on Friday, but closed slightly higher at 5.83. RSI going below 20, it is a BUY for me.

I m NOT recommending anyone to buy into this counter. I m merely stating what in my mind, what I m currently stalking with intention to grab some. As I do not have time to monitor, this is for investment(mid-term). Any good counter overly sold due to some bad news requires attention. That is my theory.

For more info, visit http://www.zhongwang.com/ or google-finance, key-in 1333.hk.

TEH

Saturday, December 19, 2009

DPTR at 1.44, and doubled its stock price from 0.73 in a week time!! I have learnt that stocks over-react to some news, it will shoot higher for no good fundamental reasons or dive much lower.

Remembering 3A resources? How about Lityan or GPacket? A good news of Kuok interests in 3A sent 3A sky-rocketting ... or some news about Lityan making it a senseless trading counter. No good reasons for GPacket to fly from 0.70 level to 1.60 in weeks!! What ... just merely because of they are going to cover Spore? Sure? The so-called news giving speculators reasons to buy, only to sell-off and let it dives ...

There are many speculative counters, or being used to speculate for short-term profits. Those are large KLSE's buaya, inviting ikan-bilis like us to move in ... giving us small profits, and before we realise ... nyam-nyam. We will be eaten alive. I was one of the ikan-bilis, and learnt my lessons well - not to play into speculative counters.

When someone mentioned to me counters like Harvest and such, I wonder what I should say. I will say that I wont buy into these counters, especially I m no longer monitoring movements of stocks/markets. So, I wont touch those counters.

KNM, Saag, Ramunia, Vastalux or Scomi ... I wont touch them now, as you may see their high, yet artificial volumed created. These becoming very speculative. See no touch.

Another counters I wont touch are PN17 counters. LCL recently dived into this category. I wont grab Talam, with a hope it will be lifted from the PN17 list, and gain hugely. Silk and Harvest recently gave us that impression.

While I wont mind punt into some warrants, I simply wont buy into those speculative counters!!. Somehow, I feel 'safer' to play with company warrants such as AnnJoo-wb, with low premium and long expiry date.

We are all different ... some seeing buying into HKSE is a high risk, while buying into MTone or Connect are not. Some saying buying into US-market will be good for investments, but others(me too) will see US-markets are very risky. It all depends on how we see it - from our own perpectives.

Today, markets are no longer cheap ... and many are anticipating huge correction. Nothing is certain(the only certainty I could think of now is our Malaysia's Government is corrupt-free) in markets. V-shape, W-shape or L-shape recoveries ... you name it, we have it mentioned in daily basis in main media. Everyone want his opinions being heard. Buy GOLD, buy Stocks, BUY BUY ... no no ... SELL SELL SELL ... I mean, buy and sell? Wait a minute, on second thought, it is Sell and Buy. Arrghh ... I m confused.

While I could say I like many sectors in China, some are saying about China's bubble. I like energy(black or green), Auto(transportation, in general) and building materials sector.

In KLSE, I will like property-stocks now and construction-stocks too. These two sectors are still in correction mode, and lagging behind. Property and construction sectors related to building material-sector.

Another sector that could easily out-perform KLCI will be rubber-stocks. Topglove, Hartalega, Kossan, Supermax, Adventa, Latexx, Rubberex have done extremely well. May it be due to H1N1 news or what-so-ever, rubber-stocks should do well moving forward. Topglove has the highest valuations but it will continue to attract investors due to its 'blue-chip' status in rubber sector. Many IB placing rubber-sector as over-weight or out-perform rating. I m still holding(sold and buy back) Adventa and Supermax - looking to buy more next year.

Happy Holiday ... and good weekend ahead.

TEH

10.15 pm : Portsmouth is the BOTTOM team, Liverpool losing to them.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Obama : He is on 'live' speaking at Copenhagen. COP is yet another 'failure', in general. The loser : THE EARTH. If you could get a cheaper energy to USE USE USE ... will you settle for a much more expensive ones and REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE your usage? They are talking about the general populations in the world - no point pointing fingers ... as we all are equally guilty.

The Scandenavians and some Europe countries may be more environmental-aware community, but too bad ... US and China will continue to consume more and more energy.

Last day of COP15 ... is there any concrete conclusions and commitments from the world leaders? What?? 100billions commitments? Who is paying? Where the monies will ACTUALLY channel too? In Malaysia, we know where OUR public money being used ... but this is WORLD issue. How do they expect those SUPPOSED to contribute WILL contribute and those projects in developing countries carried out as planned? Nah ... HUMAN are greedy and selfish. Who give a damn what will happen to the polar-bears up there? Come-on ... give me a break. We HUMAN(especially the US) consume-consume-consume. We need to continue to CREATE MORE new products to SELL SELL SELL ... in order to satisfy our ever higher DESIRES. We need a new handphone, I mean we need TWO or THREE handphones, we need 3 TVs per home, we need 2 or 3 cars per home. We NEED NEED NEED more high-tech TOYS for kids, gadgets for the adults. WE NEED ... MORE MORE MORE ... stupid senseless WORLD. That is NOT a need ... replace ALL my word of "need" with WANT. I WANT I WANT ... since young, we cried. WE WANT WA WANT ... more!! We WANT a huge BED ... , if possible 3 bedrooms with 3 different type of beds ... if possible, 3 bed-partners. WE WANT ... I could continue to point out how SENSELESS those human around. And .. those biggest hypocrisy in our WORLD leaders.

Stop talking about global-warming, or even have those COP15. Accept ot that we HUMAN as GREEDY and SELFISH. We are senseless ... WE WANT power to lead the nations or even the world. STUPID. We go into WARS, in the name to "WE WANT" to conquer the world. WHO cares how many innocent people killed during wars?! Remember ... the word WE WANT is very strong. We will do almost anything to fill our own void, our desires. Otherwise, we will cry out WE WANT.

Who cares about the whales crying or some species going to be distinct soon. Damn, we dont even have any idea that there are actually thosands of species of insects. Yucks. Who cares?? CUT CUT CUT those trees, will you? We WANT more paper to burn. We WANT to print more paper-$$$ to be used as toilet-papers some day.

Oh boy, Najib said Malaysia will go for 40% cut. What?? Combatting climate change? Is this a joke or these human wearing some coats speaking about in Copenhagen? If you have been following the 'news' about this COP15 talk-talk-talk, and feel compassionate towards environment ... and sceptical about society(sicko like me) .... you will know how I feel.

I wish I m IGNORANT ... know NOTHING much about environment or non-informed about what those hypocrites are talking about.

Obama needs to save his own country. Are they going to PRINT another 100billion to 'save the earth'? Ironically, they need to cut more trees?? Dont worry, come to Sabah here, we have thick forest to CUT CUT CUT.

1.35 am : DOW down by 100 points. Citi at 3.20 now. No KLSE on Friday ...

12.45 pm : Busy with classes since morning, and classes till night today as students going back 'kampung' for their x'mas break.

HSI and STI in reds. Blood-field everywhere. CWP going below 0.80 now, at 0.78. Qinfa back to my purchase price as I did not take profits when it went up 15%.

ALert : ZhongWang diving for few days now - with RSI going below 20. Noted.


TEH

Thursday, December 17, 2009

12.25 am : DOW up 50 points, DPTR continues to climb, at 1.38, up 30% in 2 hours of trading. It came from 0.73 last week.

Battleground 2009 : Elecoldxhot, the defending champ.



I will be delighted to watch the final live. Perhaps next year, when I m in KL ... I shall take Katoon Network to win this year. The Malay boys, Wakaka Fever is good too.


8.30 am : As I was driving to work, jay-jay played the song "Crawling". It has been long time I didnt listen to this number ... enjoy.



Crawling

crawling in my skin
these wounds they will not heal
fear is how I fall
confusing what is real


there's something inside me that pulls beneath the surface
consuming/confusing
this lack of self-control I fear is never ending
controlling/I can't seem


to find myself again
my walls are closing in
(without a sense of confidence and I'm convinced that there's just too much pressure to take)
I've felt this way before
so insecure

crawling in my skin
these wounds they will not heal
fear is how I fall
confusing what is real

discomfort, endlessly has pulled itself upon me
distracting/reacting
against my will I stand beside my own reflection
it's haunting how I can't seem...

to find myself again
my walls are closing in
(without a sense of confidence and I'm convinced that there's just too much pressure to take)
I've felt this way before
so insecure

crawling in my skin
these wounds they will not heal
fear is how I fall
confusing what is real

crawling in my skin
these wounds they will not heal
fear is how I fall
confusing confusing what is real

there's something inside me that pulls beneath the surface
consuming/confusing what is real
this lack of self-control I fear is never ending
controlling/confusing what is real

9.30 am : KLCI up 3points,rubber-rallying again ... Adventa, Latexx and Supermax.

Topglove reached RM10 now. Rubber ... as investors, we should be holding some rubber-stocks. BUY to hold, ok?

I still feel that rubber will continue to rally, next year or so, as the demands are very high. TopGlove is cash positive now. Can Supermax with high gearing(but riding on higher profit margins) reduces their debts and be a huge player too? Hartalega is another very good rubber counter to consider.

Alert : AnnJoo-wb at 0.59,

TEH

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

11.45 am : KLCI down by 5.5 points as it was artificially planted 5 points higher minutes before closing yesterday. But Genting still holding well at RM7.07 and BJToto at RM4.20 level.

2.15 am : No electricity for the second time here at Menggatal town.

Petra continues to move lower, at 1.36 now. Saag at 0.175.

6.20 pm : Genting and BJtoto refused to go lower. Genting back to 7.19 and BJToto held at 4.21.

Constructions : Fajar jumped 8%, Jaks still going lower. Zelan dived 7% and Muhibah staying at 0.95.

DPTR : Was at the new low of 0.73 last week, at 1.25 now!!

XingYe : Broke below 1.10 today, a nice waterfall forming.

ZhongWang: went below HKD7 today, to close at 6.82

Citi : Luckily LL did not buy Citi at 4.10 two weeks ago when she asked me opinions regarding Citi, the 'zombie' bank. It is at 3.45 now.

TEH
One of a book that closest to my heart is FREE and not related to Maths, Politics, Humour,Bowling, Chess, Tradings and Investments ... but about "Mindfulness". It is a gem to me.

How to meditate





The title : Letting everything become your teacher - excerpts from Full Catastrophe Living by Jon Kabat-Zinn, compiled by Hor Tuck Loon.

If I could spend hours reading those reports/news ... and blog here, certainly I could pause and spend time with MYSELF, slowing my rushing mind, busy schedules and paces. I have not been doing that for as long as I could remember. The only time I 'pause' was on some Sunday mornings when I m in the church. Even that, I m not regular.

Being aware ... means living NOW, the present and THIS moment. Most of us looking back to the past(good or bad) ... and some are worry about the future. We failed to live today FULLY. We allow many 'senseless' thoughts to dominate our minds, and we take that as a norm. We will the void inside us with music(loud), movies, items we desire, hi-hi ha-ha chatting ... as we are avoiding OURSELVES. Some of us simply live in denial. And some of us are hurting others(directly or indirectly - intentionally or unintentionally) ... while we may say we do not 'mean it'.

I am speaking about MYSELF. I have not paused for a while now. With so much of 'things' happening around, I m simply too BUSY to pause. That is not what I want. I want to pause, rejuvenate myself ... reflect on lives while pushing myself to IMPROVE further. There are so much rooms for improvements in my lives at the moment. And I m leading my kids ... yeah, my priority. I need to be able to lead myself well, and be a good example to my kids. Hence, I need to pause ... to reflect on what I do need to do next.

Linkin Park- In The End- Soothing, Relaxing Music



I m Linkin Park's fans ... I like their music - loud and noises - with variations. But this piano-piece is simply BEAUTIFUL. I may not know how to play this one ... but, I will be glad to see my kids being able to play such beautiful music. I will never force or push my kids to 'music class' or such ... and will only encourage and support them if they are interested. I hv no demands or high expectations on my kids. I want them to grow ... at their own pace, if possible away from this value-depleting society. We are rushing too fast ... we are becoming more senseless. We have high desire, high expectations and high wishes.

TEH

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Time Is Now – Mindfulness

By allan · December 7, 2007 · Filed in business, career, life, work

Are you rushing through life missing out on the real moments? How much time do you spend contemplating problems which never even happen? Most of us create an unnecessary amount of stress in our lives by spending more time rehashing the past or trying to control the future, then we do in the present moment.

TEH : If one sold a stock, looking back regretting will NOT change a thing. Jot down the mistake(s). If one bought a counter with a hope it will go up soon, it will not do us any good, either. We do not know how a particular stock will move in a short-term, anyway. But, we can increase our probabilities, with knowledge - applied knowledge, I mean.

In “Choosing Happiness” Alexandra Stoddard writes “The past is dead gone forever, only to be retrieved in memories, films, scrapbooks, and memorabilia. The past, whether good or bad, is not where we should water our seeds of consciousness, because doing so drains our energy from what is alive to us and around us now. Dwelling on the past inhibits our ability to move forward and take action to inspire our well-being. However we perceive the past, whether in a positive or negative light, concentrating on it makes us unhappier in the present.”

TEH : Happiness or lack of it will be my main concern in my writings next year, as I will be starting anew. I have forgotten about MINDFULNESS - my main concern in my internal living since I have been 'too busy'. It is senseless ... hence, I want to learn to practise Mindfulness.

TEH
Further correction ahead?

KUALA LUMPUR: Defensive stocks may not be spared the brunt of an expected “steep correction” in the market ahead, said a technical analyst.

Maybank Investment Bank’s head of retail research, equity markets, Lee Cheng Hooi, who last Friday advised investors to liquidate their stocks, said some key FBM KL Composite Index stock constituents may lead declines in the market.

TEH : Something I m doing now ... liquidate, if possible.

Among stocks which Lee expects will undergo a correction are YTL CORPORATION BHD , GENTING BHD , BAT Malaysia Bhd and PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD .

TEH : Looking to move in for Genting, say at 6.80 and below.

“Despite these stocks being defensive in nature, they don’t seem to be in great shape,” he told The Edge Financial Daily pursuant to his chart analysis of these stocks.

Lee also said banking stocks were “looking a bit high” and he did not rule out a further correction in the sector. The finance sector constitutes about 35.7% weightage on the FBM KLCI, followed by PLANTATION.

TEH : CIMB has been used by local funds to support the KLCI. Time to move out from banking, looking into AMMB. Deep correction needed to move-in as many are not cheap.

“The market is high, and we will likely see a snowball sell effect,” he said, adding that the local benchmark index may well fall below 1,200 since its run-up a few months ago.

TEH : Below 1,200 ... oh boy, many hovering at RM1+ will go back to be penny-stocks.

In a report last Friday, Lee urged investors to liquidate their stocks in view of the “steep correction” round the corner, as the FBM KLCI hovered at a key neckline support level of the head and shoulders chart pattern.

He said the FBM KLCI may have peaked at 1,288.42 on Nov 17, 2009, and “urged investors to liquidate all their stocks on any and every rally”. He said all the FBM KLCI’s indicators (CCI, DMI, MACD, Oscillator and Stochastic) turned negative recently.

“There could be a potential steep correction very soon. Tactically, investors should liquidate all their stocks. If the FBM KLCI breaks below 1,255, the market would head down towards 1,207 (the measurement target of the dreaded head and shoulder pattern),” he said.

TEH : I believe KLCI will go below 1,255 ... but I dont know if I will patiently wait to see 1,207 level. We need to see overall market sentiments to determine that. Markets USUALLY over-react(up or down).

The head and shoulders pattern is a reversal chart pattern after a long upward trend and is recognised by technical analysts to forecast likely future trends in stock markets.

Large local funds are distributing their massive positions, whilst maintaining the illusion that all is well with the FBM KLCI and FBM 100,” he added in the report.

TEH : I accepted this statement as true. Dividends and bonuses time for many local funds. Are we getting higher rate from EPF?

Lee said weakness in most blue-chip components and mid-capped stocks would cause further market downside in the medium term, and the FBM KLCI was holding above the 50-day simple moving average for now. Lee said any US dollar’s rise would be among the factors giving downward pressure to equity markets.

TEH : I do believe USD will rebound, but in long-term view .. USD will continue to be weaken. That might give another spike in GOLD prices, as inflation expected. Interest rates might go up too.

FBM KLCI closed almost flat last Friday at 1,260 points with a high degree of uncertainty throughout the trading day. The benchmark index has risen about 50% from its low of 835.17 about a year ago.

There was now risk aversion to emerging markets after Dubai delayed its debt repayments, Lee further told The Edge Financial Daily, advising investors to hold cash at this point in time.

TEH : I do want to hold on to some cash while waiting for the correction.

He likened the state of the world economy now to “a house of cards”.

Dubai has started it (the correction), and these debt defaults will cause jitters in the world economy,” Lee said, referring to the latest news of debt repayment concerns in Spain and Greece.

TEH : I read and heard about these in CNBC/Bloomberg. The fear was short-lived and many moved back to markets and US's DOW reaching a new high!!

Dubai is delaying its debt repayment, putting at risk the US$59 billion (RM200 billion) debt held by government controlled Dubai World and its property arm and an upmarket builder Nakheel.

Fitch Ratings last Tuesday announced that Latvia and Lithuania’s credit ratings were under pressure from the sharp deterioration in public finances, according to a Bloomberg report.

The same agency also cut its rating on Greek government bonds one step lower to BBB+, causing a heavy selloff on Greece’s government bond markets on fears over debt default.

Reports also said Standard and Poor’s shifted its outlook for Spain’s debt from stable to negative. The agency further said “reducing Spain’s sizeable fiscal and economic imbalances required strong policy actions, which have not yet materialised”.

Heavy bond selloffs have also been reported in countries like Portugal and Ireland as investors feared credit ratings for these countries may be downgraded.

TEH : I dont really read anything much written about Malaysia's bonds. I m not into bond markets. But, I guess Malaysia bonds are safe?

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 14, 2009.

Taken from : InvestingNote's blog.
DOW at 10, 500 level. Crude oil still slightly below USD70, Sinopec up 7% yesterday!! Time to re-look at Sinopec-c5.

9.15 am : KLCI down by 1.5 points now. Are local funds releasing their positions to give bonuses, dividends and such? Watch for further down-side on those index-related counters. I will be collecting Genting and BJtoto.

LCL : Touched a low 0.17, at 0.26 now ... the most actively traded counter in KLSE. Well, 'goreng' activities going on. Good for punters and traders alike, not good for weak-hearted person like me.

TopGlove, Adventa and Supermax moving slightly ... looking to sell.

Genting at RM7 and BJToto at 4.15. Wait ...

LL : I like your target price of Genting at 6.50 and BJToto at 4.00. Hehe.

11.05 am : My days here in KK is numbered. I cleared some Supermax(1k units).

2.40 pm : KLCI down by 2.6 points, at 1263 level now. Genting at 6.97.

PJDev : http://www.pjdprop.com.my/

I m monitoring PJDev for a while now, and it has attracted interests. PJDev-wb is trading at 68% premium. Wont touch its baby, but PJDev going for new high. It broke 0.73, with very high volume. At 0.77 now in a profit-taking mode, could this give a good trade? I shall watch ... by the way, PJDev's service apartment at Sri Petaling is due to open next year, right?

Genting

1)Genting Singapore: Betting on positive prospects in a recovering economic environment

Recommendation: Outperform fair value of S$1.33/share.

Lucrative Resorts World @ Sentosa project; operating in a guaranteed casino duopoly market; Singapore ’s anticipated tourism-led economic recovery

Genting: Raising target price post initiation of Genting Singapore

Maintain Outperform. SOP-based fair value for Genting has been raised to RM9.35 from RM8.60.

Note : SOP = sum of parts. I used to only know SOB = son of bitch. Haha.

6.10 pm : KLCI up 5.36. Wow. A quick check ... I realised it was PLANTED again. Let's check ...

Genting at 7.12 with a gap of buying at 7.01. Maybank at 6.90, AMMB at 5.00, IOICorp at 5.42 and Maxis at 5.40. Guess who is buying? It involved MILLIONS of $$$ in the last 10-minutes buying spree. Check on SIME ... how much of $$$(turnover) done at 8.98?

Do check out KLK, DiGi, BAT, YTL ... this is called MANIPULATION of the index? Perhaps some foreign funds is coming into KLSE and nibble some for x'mas?

Hey, BJToto closed at 4.21 ... and I m waiting for 4.10? Hmm ... another sign of reversal?

Now, this is one of the point why the charts could be manipulated and NOT 'real'. It is the weakness in the candle-stick. Supposingly if you do not watch markets regularly, the charts could be mis-leading.

Stalk : AnnJoo-wb at 0.61, below 0.58 could be a good entry point?!


Waterfall : Jaks is forming a nice one here. Buying below 0.60 level?

TEH

Monday, December 14, 2009

12.50 am : Liverpool leads with a goal by Kuyt, half time break. I dont understand why the offence by Gallas on Gerrard is NOT a penalty. The referee was there watching ... have they changed the ruling again?

1.15 am Own goal by Johnson. 1 - 1.

1- 2. Sigh. Time to sleep.

9.20 am : No writing today. Not in mood.

12.05 pm : KLCI down by 3.5 points, BJtoto at 4.13, Genting below 7 now. Wait.

http://www.thefamily.org/

The Star : I read that the Miss Indon joined this 'cult'. To find out more of it, I searchedfor more info and many saying that it is DOOMed cult. It is DEVIL in working. But, from their site, I can't see the DEVILS, in fact I admired those helping the needy.

The Family International, formerly known as the Children of God, is a Christian fellowship dedicated to sharing the Gospel of Jesus Christ around the world. Founded in Southern California during the late 1960s, the Family International has expanded into an international organization located in over 90 countries. Full-time members have successfully maintained a cooperative, communal lifestyle since the founding of our fellowship.

The Family International has undergone much change and progress throughout its 40-year history, in the process of establishing an international missionary work. Although our methods and our membership structure have evolved with the times, our core message remains unchanged: "For God so loved the world, that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish, but have everlasting life" (John 3:16 NKJV).


Our mission is:

1.To change the world, one heart at a time, by sharing the life-giving message of hope and salvation through Jesus Christ as found in God's Word. Jesus said that we, as His followers, should go "into all the world and preach the Gospel [the good news of God's love] to every creature" (Mark 16:15 KJV).

2.To provide social assistance to the needy, both spiritually and materially. Family members carry this out in a multitude of ways around the globe, ranging from encouraging and assisting the elderly, the sick and the disadvantaged; working to rehabilitate drug addicts and gang members, offering personal counseling in prisons and juvenile detention centers; assisting in humanitarian efforts, disaster relief, and refugee camps; and staging benefit performances for the underprivileged in many different countries. Our members frequently work with relief organizations--both international and regional--to bring food, supplies, comfort, help, and encouragement to people in distress or hardship. Jesus said, "Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these My brethren, ye have done it unto Me" (Matthew 25:40 KJV).


3.To produce and distribute multimedia devotional, inspirational, and educational publications for all ages. Our wide selection of publications includes devotional books and booklets, magazines for those seeking to become grounded in the Christian faith, colorful posters, Gospel tracts, and classes on how to translate the principles of Christianity into everyday living. Family-sponsored projects have helped to create a wide range of inspirational, informative, and character-building videos, radio, and television programs, such as the internationally acclaimed children's television and video series, Treasure Attic.


4.To communicate a message of both preparation and hope for the days soon to come, when according to Scripture, the world will be plunged into an unprecedented time of social chaos and religious persecution, referred to in the Bible as the "Great Tribulation" (Matthew 24:21). These troubled times immediately precede the Second Coming of Jesus Christ and the establishment of His kingdom on earth, in which justice and truth will reign (Matthew 24:30).


TEH

Sunday, December 13, 2009

MU lost to Villa with Chelsea held to an exciting 3-3 draw. Spurs lost with Man City drew. We shall see if Arsenal or Liverpool could capitalise on these results.

But, I need to mention some 'miracles' happened. I saw the result Malaysia 2 - Thailand 1. I thought they mis-print. Since when we heard of such positive news from our footballing boys? Syabas, I shall say ... but I admit that is just a flash-in-the-pan performance or it might be the Thais under-performed.

5.00 pm : It is Sunday, but I hv classes since morning. Next month onwards, I will be a 'superman' ... Mon-Fri in KL, Sat-Sun teaching whole day in KK. It is 2.5 hours of flying(one-way) and an hour travelling to KLCC. Airport(or anywhere!!) in KK is near to town.

I wanted to write about 'gratitute' vs 'complain' today ... but I m slightly tired. May be later ... while watching Liverpool vs Arsenal. They lost at home in the mid-week CL's game. Gunners play beautiful swift passing football which delighted to watch. The odds against the Reds but IF Malaysia boys could beat Thais men, anything is possible now. Or is it?

10.20 pm : I think I will take profits and held on those in losing positions, anticipating another DIVE coming in US ... which will affects market world-wide. Then, that will be the moment to move in again. As I could not monitor markets(and I wont), pulling myself partially out of markets ... and be patient to wait for the next correction next year will be my 2010 strategy. Mind you, at the moment we are seeing many waterfalls forming and I m very tempted to buy into some, such as Muhibah, BRDB or Scomimr ... I will wait for THE dive.


To clear : CWP, Qinfa and Supermax.

To average down : TA, LionInd and E&O.

To move in : Genting(and Genting-co) and BJToto(and BJToto-cd).

Warrants for trading : AnnJoo-wb, WCT-wb and SPSetia-wb.

2010 : To focus more funds on HKSE's listed green-stocks(renewable energy stocks)

TEH
Waterfalls : Constrcutions

Muhibah :
Fajar :

Gamuda :

Waterfalls :


Scomimr : At 0.40 now, RSI below 10. This is one good buy at the moment. I like waterfalls ... something like this one!!

Petra : At 1.57, RSI 25 ... Petra Perdana is selling their Petra Energy stakes.

Waterfalls : Properties


YNHProp : Closed at 1.58, the support level. A dive to 1.28 will be a good entry point. RSI at 39, still can wait.


SPSetia : At 3.60 level with huge volume traded on Friday. RSI at 39. Wait for it to go lower.



BRDB : At 1.35, RSI 12.2 ... inviting for a buy. Among the three property stocks, at the moment I like BRDB for its nice waterfall. So, it is a BUY for me.


Note : All the charts are 3-month chart.


TEH

p/s : We all know that LCL is the a huge waterfall at the moment but I will not touch it. Fundamentally it is in bad shape, and may not recover.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

$$$ blogs that I read from bloggers that I admire(not in order).

1. Stocktube's http://stocktube.blogspot.com/

2. Moola's http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/

3. Bullbear's http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/

4. Dali's http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

5. Remnant's http://remnant888.blogspot.com/

6. Alex Lu's http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/

7. Nextview's http://investornet.blogspot.com/

8. Jackie Lee's http://malaysianshares.blogspot.com/

9. Boon's http://www.bhcinvestment.com/

10. Conrad Lim's http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

11. SmartBiz's http://sensecents.blogspot.com/

12. Alpha's http://alphachart.blogspot.com/

13.Hammer Scan's http://mycandlestick-hammer.blogspot.com/

14. BursaStreet's http://bursastreet.blogspot.com/


The above are blogs I do read, so for those new to my blogs, I will recommend the above blogs. Read ALL of them to learn more ... while mine will becoming more irrelevant and irregular. Yes, after reading all the above, if you REALLY have all the time in the world, idling, then you are welcome to read my writings which are fictional and for pleasure readings. I have never see myself as 'sifu' or such. Many asking me opinions, as opinions are cheap(and free from me) ... I will give my general opinions. For serious investing with real money, my flawed opinions should NOT be taken into considerations in buying/selling any stocks.

I wanted to write about the going-on of COP. Yes, green-energy and related stocks, my main focus. In fact, I feel I diverse too much, and wanted to fully focus in WindPower, SolarPower or Green-Battery stocks. Perhaps after the COP.

TEH

Friday, December 11, 2009

Fung Wan - Ekin




FUNG WAN II : Wind & Cloud 2 [风云II]



Fung Wan I was one my fav movie. I will make sure that I watch Fung Wan II. I did not watch a movie in cinema for almost 5 years now!

TEH