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Friday, July 31, 2009

DOW up by 80+ points, with crude oil price recovered to 67 level. Interesting ... as CNOOC might move up again, not allowing me to buy today. I will wait.

KLSE : I m still holding Petra, GPacket, Kossan, E&O and BJToto. Except for Petra, all in green level now. No intention to sell any at the moment, unless I need more funds for my HKEx/SGX.

HKSE : Only holding on CWP and eyeing on CNOOC next. I will also buy an China auto-stock soon. Note.

Up-to-date, due to this very strong rally, I have tripled my initial capitals. I was asked by a friend whether I have doubled my money since all stocks doubled/tripled. Yes, my best performances were on CWP and CPNE.

CWP bought at 0.245 in early March, and sold at 1.03 recently and I m still holding a little of it. CPNE bought at 0.32 and sold at 0.60. The next good performance was by AnnJoo-wb where I traded many times from 0.18 level till 0.70 level. I m cleared of it.

LionInd and Kinstel do give me good profits too.

Many more warrants/call-warrants which gave me substantial gains were SPSetia-wb, WCT-wb, Affin-wc, AirAsia-ce, Genting-cm, IOICorp-cj, Sime-cg, Axiata-cb, Gamuda-cg, TM-ci Ammb-cd, GenM-cj, Maybank-cj etc etc ... I cant recall all, actually.

These warrants/call-warrants are in VERY high level now, and I m out. The risk is high now to buy into KLSE, where I believe a huge retraction could be seen soon. Besides, I want to focus buying HKSE's babes.

I do lose many of my trades too and I do know I lost the most in SCOMI. Yup, I lose 4 times vs it, with zero winning!! Ouch, I think I lost about RM3.5k to Scomi alone so far. Well, you lose some, you win some. Fair?

JL : You are gaining from GPacket and Sinopec now more than RM2k-rm3k now, and half is 'mine'. Do you still THINK my knowledge for you worth a shit less than RM200 bucks? Think and feel about it, ya. I have 15 of your insulting, critising, be-littling, threatening etc etc e-mail from you and I will be glad if you could get into your senses, be remorse ... and pray. I m not angry but saddened. You may be covering it well from everyone besides/surround you, but it is INSIDE you and you bring it with YOU. God's watching too. Just dont lower yourself anymore, ok?

JL, REAL man cries ... REAL man says THANK YOU when they feel gratitude(give thanks to the Lord too) and REAL man says SORRY with true sincere feeling. Be that REAL man, one day. Wish you well, ok?

Taken from economist July 11-17th issue : "Politicians frequently lie. So does everyone else. Why all the fuss?"

5.15 pm : KLCI is bullish again. HSI too. KLCI closed for the weekend at 1174.90.

10.10 pm : A busy day, indeed. No time to write and also too tired now ... but I will write about greediness and markets, perhaps tmr.

While markets may move higher, especially in China(up 80% so far) ... I will be preparing for it to dive. Greed is everywhere now, so it is time to be fearful. I m just trying to apply what Warren Buffett said. Since when did I compare myself with W.Buffett? Don't be sarcastic and respect him, ok?

Anyway, we should listen to those who have DONE it.

TEH

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Morning ... I do not wake up at 4am to see US market closing for quite sometime now. Well, since I m back to my schedule, I have re-schedule my plans to suit my 'new' situation.

Crude oil price is below USD63 now. Gold below 930. VIX increased. By Friday(tmr), when the GDP data is out, we might see markets start to retrace further? All these indicators are NOT a definite certain for the coming outlook of the markets, but if you see how fast&furious markets have been shooting up ... you should be in FEAR. BUYING in these few coming days will be fueled with greed.

Time to trim again? Hmm ... I m always wrong, dont worry.

BUY or BYE? Hmm ...

MOF = (A - Cash)/(B + D). I m trying to get the logic of how they came out with this formula. Hmmm ... It looks simple but it ain't not.

paula abdul - straight up



A nice-beat song by Paula. She was one of the American Idol's judges. I like this song and still am. Straight-UP ... yeah, being straight in this crooked world is a great challenge. But, if we need to be successful, we need to be straight. Perhaps, I m wrong to be straight and stupid? Ok ok ... be straight yet smart, next time. Hmm ...

8.40 am : Queueing to clear Zelan. KNM still moving lower(some funds threw away their shares). Oil stocks will be moving lower today due to the huge correction in crude oil price overnight.

9.10 am : Welcoming Handal in our playground. Really handal as it is up 30% now. Huh!!

Yesterday, China welcomed the largest IPO. Guess how many % it shot up? Hmm ... come on, Handal. Malaysia boleh too ...

10.15 am : KLCI losing about 7 points as profit-taking activities continue. LionInd at 1.55 level now after shot up to 1.67 two days ago. I m still stalking here ... while stucked with my Zelan but cleared my IOI-cj.

12.45 pm : Will cut-off Zelan to lose a dinner(maggi-mee tonight, anyway) ... Crude Oil price at USD63, China's oil-stocks in red. CNOOC at HKD10 level. Noted.

My HK-cw battered and losing 30% from my purchase point in two days. Doesnt really matter ... it is an interesting moves, indeed.

My china-oil stock fav : CNOOC(code 0883.hk)

Amongst the big three : Petrochina, Sinopec and CNOOC ... this is my favourite. Of coz I have compared them ... and CNOOC is the best-value buy to ride on the recovery of oil-price(at USD70, it is speculated and over-valued at the moment). We may not see crude oil at USD40 anymore ... but no one could guess the exact directions in the short term. Look into it a longer period of time and as investor, we should ride on the imminent recovery of crude-oil price.

Hence, I will be collecting CNOOC when it is retracing. Yes,accumulation ... not trade.

Also, since I like windpower in China, CNOOC has a handful of offshoore windpower projects in coming years. It is really HUGE(under-statement, actually).

Janet Jackson - Doesn't Really Matter



4.15 pm : KLCI losing about 5 points. HANDAL showing the Malaysia-boleh semangat, up more than 50%. This fella surely under-valued, I guess.

Zelan cleared at 0.975 for small loss.

5.04 pm : KLCI down 3.86 points.

My trip to OSK II

TEH

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

It has been bullish for markets ... it is becoming noisier, and when greed is there ... is it time for us to take profits and hide?

KLCI at 1172, reaching for 1200 soon. But, DOW down a little ... crude oil price and gold down a little too.

That's What Friends Are For



This is one nice song when I was younger then. I like the REAL meaning of friendship ... and so far, I only have TWO very close friends ... who I will do whatever possible if they ever need me. In the same way, they will always help me(emotionally since schooldays!!). It is very difficult for me to start a friendship as I treasured friendship so much ... and I m just like a small--kid when it comes to this. Perhaps, I m naive and take the words LITERALLY ... that's what friends are for?

My two best friends are KK Wong(a currency trader with a local bank - a successful senior officer) and Siva(a financial controller in Sydney - a very successful Malaysian Indian). We were good friends since school-days(standard 1 till form 6) ... childhood friends and still very much in touch, tho we seldom communicate. See how proud I am with my friends, and not envy them. In fact, I m so happy that they still accept me being SO SIMPLE. I still prefer char-kueh teow in kopi-tiam with them rather than those posh restaurants.

In me, I do see myself as successful too. I will write how these two great friends of mine INDIRECTLY encouraged me to learn about INVESTMENT ... and IF I have successfully done that one day, definitely they will be proud of me!! We even planned to meet and plan to stay nearby once we retired!! We can play chess and badminton together again? Hehe. Hey, thinking of them putting a smile in a 'saddened' me. Will e-mail them later. This is a personal matter which I will write in my personal blog. I want to restrict this MY TRADING ADVENTURE blog as it is .... my trading/investment journey.

For that reason, I will still write my experience with JL. I m more focus on WHAT I DID WRONG ... analysing my miistakes and move on. Yeah, no point going so low to his mentality level and characters. As of today, GPacket(bought at 0.72) and Sinopec(bought at 6.30) which we supposed to share, he owes me only about RM7k(assuming he kept to his words). RM7k is too small to buy a friendship for me. Yeah, anything can be bought by MONEY is not valuable.

TWO WRONGS = ONE RIGHT? Hmmm ... I don't think so.

The teacher in "me"

I have always wanting to teach Maths since I was form 4. It is like a dream-come-true fairy tale story for me. So, I m going into my 20th year of teaching Maths this year. I always try to learn something ... and learn it well so that I could teach/coach. I m not so good in chess but I do have basics - so it is only natural to teach those kids(primary) some tactics/basics. I m not so good in bowling but could win some small competitions - so it is natural for me wanting to coach those beginners. Today, I may not be so good in investments but my passion for teaching is inside me - so it is onlly natural that when JL came to me, wanting to learn ... I m so glad to teach even for free(but he said he dont wish to take things for granted, no free lunches etc etc ... and asked me to charge him, that is how I simply put a figure : 20% of your profits. If you lose money, I will cover for you).

Anyway, I m a teacher ... I m learning investment by myself(i dont have a daily guidance, you know) ... diligently learning how to read financial reports, how to interpret news and data and how to get into trading. In this view, I will be very glad to teach anyone/someone about investment, one day. Yes, even for FREE. But, dont bite me back la, ya. Hehe

I do receive e-mail or notes asking my opinions about this stock or that stock. I do not dare to comment ... as I m a NOVICE. Seriously, I m a beginner. I dont think so I should give my flawed opinions ... I m only 1 yr and 7 months in markets, how good could I be, right? So, forgive me for not replying to the many e-mail asking "XXX" can buy at this level? I dont know.

8.40 am : I m clearing IOI-cj(bought yesterday morning at 0.275) today. Long queue at 0.30, perhaps I might need to lower it to 0.295. Will see.

9.20 am : Over the weekend, I wrote that I like LionInd and Zelan. LionInd shot up yesterday, Zelan moved too ... at RM1.00 now. When it is a bull-market, everything we buy will go higher, right? Kossan at 3.70 level now.

Yes, I do not want to write what I like/wanting to BUY, afraid that someone really read my blog to BUY. I m NOT selfish but very much concern of someone lose money. I will be glad if they gain but ... WHAT IF they suffer losses from my novice calls? I dont wish to see such.

Yes, I do like UEMLand and BJToto. But that doesnt mean I m buying into them. I traded UEM for few dinners, that was what I have done.

10.40 am : Just came down from a classs. Zelan done at 0.995. Still at 1.00 level.

Kossan at 3.74(touched 3.80) and E&O at 1.17.

11.35 am : KLCI retracing, in red now. HKSE in REDs all over.

11.55 am : Done more of Zelan at 0.98. Will clear it for dinner? Or keep it forever?

12.20 pm : Lunch time. KLCI dropping 8 points on profit-taking. It has surged very high yesterday.

2.25 pm : Many in REDS. It might be a knife in a making?

6.30 pm : KLCI closed 7.90 points lower, HSI lost more than 400 points, bringing my call-warrant to lose 18% today.

Zelan closed lower at 0.965. Will decide what to do with that fella tmr. I m tired ... tuition just now after school and preparing for next tuition class later.

Shanghai market(PE 35) ... SELL signal, lost the most in 8 months time today? That is what reported in Bloomberg now. Well, I do know it breached 3500 level, but have not checked how it closed today.

LionInd lost 10cents ... hmmm ... steel price reported to be reduced by RM100? Hmmm ...

11.05 pm : DOW down 30 points ... crude oil at USD63 now.

TEH

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

SOUL II SOUL - BACK TO LIFE (Back to Reality)




Comment by Remnant

Shock, Deny, Angry, Reason, Accept

Everytime we face a loss; whether monetary or physical loss, a chain reaction usually happen.

Shock -> denial ->angry/resent ->reason ->accept the loss

Or shock -> denial -> angry/resent -> disappointed -> depressed.

Depending on which route we choose, we will end up being hopeful or hopeless. It's important to recognise which route we will take and take control. The faster we do this, the less painful it is for us.

Teh, I know you'll learn to overcome the shock, anger, frustration and will employ reason, logic and accept facts as facts. There's a whole new world out there waiting for us to live our life and enjoy.

If it's any consolation, thank God it happen sooner than later. Imagine, Teh, what if the gain had been RM 100,000/= or maybe more..?

I mean seriously, THANK GOD....!

In my experience, I've had partners who have worked well and we've gained hundred of thousands.. Yet we've had a few unscruplous rascal that renege on their words and abscond with tens of thousands.

Thank God, it's not three hundred of thousands...!

Teh, big man like us must learn how to live with small loss.

It's like we can't always get the best price for our stocks, meaning we allow others to profit too.

In the bible story of Ruth, the farmer Boaz and his workers always leave behind some of the field grains to the widows and children.

Teh, big man like you must give small change to the professional beggar. Leave some groundnuts to the monkey, ok...?

TEH : Yes, I know I will choose the first option. This is just a minor set-back(tho it hurts as I really knew him as a good person!! I fully trusted him!) ... I m not talking about the few thousands but the FRIENDSHIP.

Yes, small loss for greater gain in future. This is a good lesson for me to learn, not to trust ANYONE when it comes to money. I m too simple a person, transparent and easily manipulated. I do things with EMOTION and PASSION.

Yes ... I will let go, not to show I m scared of him but he will face HIM, someday.

Two weeks ago, I burst into tears ... after 3 lengthy insulting e-mail by him. I knew by then I do not want him to be my partner-in-investment. But, because I do STILL treasure the friendship(my wife was nagging me and calling me stupid to be too kind), I let go of the investment part, hoping I could salvage this rottening friendship.

Yesterday, after a few more e-mail(insulting ones) ... I know I dont need him as my friend. It saddened me further to see his arrogance today. VERY HIGH EGO kinda person, indeed.

Anyway ... it might cause me pain now, but TIME will heal. In the mean time, I need to hold on to myself.

Thanks again to everyone who have cared. I m sorry to bother anyone here.

Special THANKS to Remnant for taking your time to strike logic to my mind. Yeah, never be emotional if we want to trade well. :-)

Night.

TEH

Monday, July 27, 2009

JL : My partner

For past 2 weeks, I tried to be calm ... when JL bite me ... yeah, I trusted him as a friend and as a partner. We AGREED to share 50-50% of our profits/losses BUT 2 weeks ago, he get mad. I thought he was in stress BUT it seems that he has been keeping it inside him ... and he shit it out with much insults and be-littling me. Oh boy ... I was in pain to know that I taught him from ZERO ... shared with him my knowledge(which he called it a shit and not even worth RM200!!) ... SINCERELY. Why would do you act so much that you want to learn blah blah blah? IF you have planned these from the start, WELL DONE. You are extremely good, doc. I didnt see these coming ...

Not a THANK from him, he caused me so much of PAIN(I rather lose in my stock-markets) and ... it is ALL about MONEY. Yup ... he profitted RM13k and on my side only RM5k(many more RISKY warrants I didnt share with him) ... and we supposed to split half-half? Hmm ... stupid me, I thought being kind to share his RISk will be good, but ... now he started to get VERY mad(oopsss ... I m the one supposed to be mad, ok?) as he OWES me money. Wow ...

The main point I could see ... he refused to take responsibilities in his words(gain already ma ... if lose money, ok la we share).

Firstly, he AGREED(verbally la ... what I can do? Sue him meh? Hmm ...) to pay me 20% of his profits as a 'tuition' fees as he is NOT THE TYPE TAKING FREE LUNCHES. Oopsss ... doctor, can you precribe me pain-killer, please? I m hurt by your coward behaviours.

KEEP YOUR WORDS, JL.

Secondly, we AGREED(oopsss ... verbally again. Hai yah ... I walked 1 km at nights to his office to teach him from ground ZERO, but he REALLY think he learn nothing from me and giving me advice, sarcastically wanting to CHARGE me! Phew ... got his type of human? Got GOD? Hmm ...) to share 50-50 our winning/losing. But, now ... nah, I give you shit and also all those immaturity, inhumane wordings. Ouch ... you told you to trust me? Haha ... sigh.

To show he is a SMART-ASS, he will continue to INSULT and BE-LITTLING me ... I know immaturity when I see one. Wait, he is 34 years old with nice family(his wife was my ex-colleague, a nice lady) with 2 nice sons. WHY would he being so nasty and certainly I never know HIM as a BAD person? Hmm ... who will believe when one hide behind the skin?

Today, I lost a friend. I have enough of him HIDING being a good person, but harassing me with insults. I do not want such a HUMAN around me. I never regret(not buying stocks, tho) encouraging him to profits from markets, coaching him and guiding him ... and also try to accomodate to him. Sad, indeed.

Have you ever know such a person, betraying you and bite you back at the end? I NEVER. This is my first encounter with such human. That explain WHY I m a loner, I prefer to be alone.

IF a friend of yours(for 5 years) ... becoming your partner-in-investment INSULT you as WORTHLESS SHIT and asked you to GET LOST, how will you re-act?

Me? I m an emotional person ... I feel sad. I might pray to GOD for strength. Then, as he OWES ME(not th other way round) ... I might fight this coward. It is emotionally draining but these humans are around us, walking like there is nothing BAD about their doings because NO ONE know what he is doing ... and hey, welcome to real world, Teh. Who ask you to be stupid? Haha.

I need a break ... but, I will be strong enough to fight him. I m just too sad to know such a so-called friend. I dont have many friends, but I treasured friendship. It is worthless to cry over the spilled milk.

I can let go of the $$$(few thousands only la. You are so cheap la, doc) part but I wont give in to an un-appreciative jerk who continue to come back to INSULT me.

Lets the game begins ... What's up, doc?

Do pray, JL. Believe me, God knows better. Your arrogance will be shown to many. Since you are a Christian, please pray.

1.20 pm : THIS BLOG TAKING A BREAK AS I NEED TO BE CALM, TO LET GO OF HIS DOINGS and FORGIVE HIM. Also, I NEED TO DEFEND MYSELF, in case HIS MADNESS get better of him.

So, JL ... stop reading my shit-head blog. And I will not dirty my blog speaking about you. BUT, I m ready to FIGHT you since I do not owe you anything. You owe me plentiful, doc. But, by being nasty, you thought you could get away from it. It wont. There is GOD, remember.

TEH
Just another maniac Monday ... for traders alike.

metallica-nothing else matters



I have chosen the above song for two main reasons :-

1. Personally I like this number tho I may not listen to most of their songs as I dont like heavy-metal songs, generally. BUT .. in the many, there are a few good ones like this one. Now, if a so-called goody-person from your tom&dick around know that you listen to Metallica kinda songs, they will start to label you as "BAD". I dont know what is so bad about them ... eeemm ... their long hair? Their banging of electric guitars or those skeleton pictures? etc etc ... I dont know. Look can be very misleading, you know. Someone who listen to Westlife kinda goody songs doesnt mean he/she is a GOOD person, please. Get yourself open-minded, please.

My point? Dont generalise ... doctors, lecturers or policians are supposed to be educated or good persons(noble to heal, teach and help people) but dont generalised, please.

2. The video clip showing WOLVES. They are such a beauty, in my eyes. Again, I dont WHY since young most of us were given the BAD pictures of wolves. Piglets with bad wolves, songs/rhymes telling innocent kids how bad wolves are ... and were-wolves? They are BAD. Beware!!

Look around you again, there are many 'preying wolves' in nice suit, working as professionals and holding respectable positions. If you are wearing something too-simple like an ah-pek on the street, you will not be noticed. Hence, this actual 'wolves' hiding behind their artificial smiles, trying to squeeze you with their hidden agenda ... and they will cleverly mis-lead you. Since when wolves are BAD? Since we were young, we were kids ...

Open your eyes again, please. Madoff look trustworthy and a good man, you know. I rather know a REAL person that those hiding behind their skin. Those cowards who preach 'goodness' in front of many, making themselves look like a God-sent angle but with sour-taste inside them. Those who will say 'yes-man' but actually plotting something behind.

We dont have to go far ... look at our POLITICIANS

TEH

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Call-warrants

KLSE : TM-ci, GenM-cj, Axiata-cb, BJtoto-cd, Genting-co and Sinopec-c5.

GenM-cj(B : 0.165) will hold till mommy testing 3.00, or baby testing 0.20 level. At 0.18(high at 0.185) at the moment.

BJToto(B : 0.120) will need to hold till someone interested with mommy. At the moment, very low interest since dividends paid.

TM-ci : Might want to grab this one back next week. At 0.13 now(sold 0.12 as I bought at 0.107). Wont pay higher than 0.13, tho.

To be considered : Gamuda-cg, Ioiccorp-cj.

HKSE : Zijin, Sinopec, CNOOC, Petrochina, China Life, HSBC and China Coal.

Listed are the call-warrants I m trading with. Highlighted are the ones I m still holding on.

Put Warrants

HKSE : HSBC, Sinopec, CNOOC and Petrochina.

I m still doing my work on these as HSI breaching 20k at the moment.

TEH

Saturday, July 25, 2009

8.00 am : China Life(code : 2628.hk) was shooting higher for the past one week, helping HSI to breach 20,000 level yesterday. China Life at HKD35 now, with PE about 40+. Rallied from a low of HKD17.5 level, amazingly I saw it doubled last this week. So, even such a heavy weight could stomp the ground, it is in everyone's believe that we are in a V-shape recovery, particular CHINA.

HKEx(code : 0388.hk) at HKD141 now. This is like Bursa(code 1818) in our KLSE la. As HSI reaching for new highs weekely, HKEx has been gaining handsomely. If you prefer an ETF tracking H-shares, 2828.hk is at HKD120+ now(I shared with JL when it breached HKD100 last month!). I m wondering how high HSI could go before a huge dive? 22k?

9.30 am : As I m moving away from KLSE, I will only hold to these few which I got stucked : Petra, GPacket, E&O and Kossan. No more buyings into any KLSE till I sell any of these for profits. Otherwise, I will becoming a loooong term investor, only for these babes. Hehe. Oh yes, I like LionInd and Zelan now. Hmm ... lets move to HKSE, ya.

12.30 pm : When we got stucked, we can console ourselves that we ARE a loong term investor. Cool way of defending silly mistakes, huh? Hehehe ... but when we sell to gain some profits, we will be glad(dont remind me of my other losing positions, pls) to celebrate!! Yeah ... I told you it will go up. See ... see?? It went up, right? hehe ...

Warren Buffett teaching investment to kids through 'cartoons'? Cool ... hey, that is a good idea!! Instead of the normal financial personal giving us the ideas on how we should invest our money, we will definitely listen to Cartoons? I do ... I watch cartoons with my son(and I dont watch TV other than cartoons? Haha ... I do watch CNN/CNBC/Bloomberg and Sports channel la).

Ok, back to market ... CHINA. I read that China market UP by 80% now. Talking about profitting from market, ya. No one want to miss out this V-shape recovery, ok? The 7.9% growth news in China making a huge surge to China market ... and that helps HSI to breach the psychological level os 20,000(closed slightly below 20k yesterday).

CNOOC is in news now ... yes, they are allowed to play it fair with PetroChina and Sinopec. Among these three, I like CNOOC the most. Hmm ... this beauty giant trading above HKD10 now, and with PE still below 10. Nice, ya.

Plain White T's - Hey There Delilah



Kossan

To reply to an e-mail questioning why I bought Kossan(hypothetically, done at 3.60) ... I like to play with rubber-stock. Many moving too higher(Supermax, Latexx, Adventa and such) too fast and I have been tracking Kossan - my fav Rubber-play(I like Topglove too, ok?).

1. A chatter(a blogger whom I knew for a year now) said he bought Kossan. Two days later, it still retracing ... so, I grabbed some at 3.60. So, how to buy a stock? Your friend BUY, you BUY la. Ooppsss ... sorry, I m kidding.

2. Swine Flu pandemic - well, Topglove will benefit more than Kossan in this area. Auto sales are 'bad' ... demand for tyres are at the low. Will it pick up? Yes, once economy recovers la. When? Long term investor BUY now, ya. Errr ... Buffett said so, I just follow. When industrial activities moving, more industrial glove needed. Kossan will gain here.

3. Fundamentally, it is still healthy. Still a low PE with high ROE. Good ma, right?

4. The small RM8m forex loss expected(if I m not mistaken) being factored in. So, I believe next year or so, there wouldnt be anymore forex-losses reported? Hmm ... USD no strength la.

5. Kossan ... hmm ... I like its name. There is a building(Wisma Kossan) where I gave tuition for a year there. Hehe.

MPI, Unisem and UnchiTech moving higher yesterday .... tech-play on the news?


TEH
Markets rallied signalling Economic recovery?

Taken from Sport and Stock's blog.

Market all over the world is in a buying frenzy in the past 2 weeks or so. Some market rallied as much as 15%. Wow, that's around 1% a day. Something really big are happening.Wait, what happened in the past 2-3 weeks that got us all into the buying frenzy? does this mean we are out of Recession? Does this mean Economic is recovering? Or better still, Recovered?

Let's analyze...

1. Company financial result.

One of the most important reason market rallied is companies' better than expected financial result for the second quarter of 2009.What is better than expected financial result? Who is expecting what kind of result?

So few so called "analyst" gave their expectation on a company's financial result and when the actual result exceed it, we buy?Is that how we decide to buy the share of a company?So if those "analyst" gave some very ridiculously low expectation and the actual result exceed it by miles, the company is suddenly on the right track again?

This is what happened in the past 2 weeks, some analysts gave some ridiculously low level of expectation and almost certainly below the actual financial result. The actual result are not as good as everybody think, you know.

TEH : I highlighted what I have mentioned weeks ago, when you see someone s0-called experts putting the 'expected' results well below what it should be, and so everyone will have the impression that the sectors are doing extremely well and time to BUY!! Guess who is happily clearing their stocks? Hmm ... as manipulative as it sounds, IT IS.

All over, we are EXPECTING the second half results will be MUCH better(they better place the expectations lower!), and hence ... due to HIGH expectations, the risk is so much higher. You know how u feel when you are expecting an A in your exams but only got a B, right? But, we are having a case of a student 'surely' get an A(high potential) but expecting a B now. So, there you are ... he/she is celebrating the A.

Anyway, dont worry ... in KLSE, we are resilient. We are out of the wood, and we have many stocks above RM10 now, ya. Economy seems to have recoverED.

2. Overall Economy Condition

Overall economy condition look like recovering. In US, some important sectors are improving. Housing sector, Health care, Transportation and banking sector all are improving. Or is it?

Did unemployment rate dropped? Did consumer confidence improving? Did commodities improving along side stock market as well? NO.

Everything is still as bad as before except for few "better that expected" figure in a few sectors. Come on, you don't believe those analyst that told you to buy at Dow 14,000 in 2007, do you?

Today, UK announce their second quarter GDP data and guess what, here's the result:The Office for National Statistics said GDP fell by 0.8 per cent on the quarter, taking the annual decline to 5.6 per cent. Analysts had forecast a quarterly decline of just 0.3 per cent after a hefty 2.4 per cent drop in the first quarter.Remember UK is the first developed country to announce their GDP data. What do you think will happen to the rest of the world?

TEH :

3. China

Is China the main reason we rallied? No. Is China a reason we rallied, ABSOLUTELY YES!

China Economic Growth accelerates to 7.9%. That a huge boost for China and whole Asia. Or is it?Remember what happened to the second quarter of 2008 when we all thought economic recovering was on its way and suddenly in third quarter everything became horrible? Will it be happening again? You decide...

TEH :

4. Fear

IndexVolatility Index, known as Fear Index is declining in fast pace signaling Economic Recovering.here are the chart of VIX for the past 6 months.

I am no expert in Technical Analysis but my brain is telling me a heavy drop like this will result in a heavy bounce and a heavy bounce in VIX will result in slump in stock market.Anything else?
you tell me.

For me, one word can summarize the reason market rallied all over the world: SPECULATION. Everyone is speculating the economy will recover and want a piece of it. However in reality, fundamental of economy does not change at all.

After all, if we can solve the biggest slowdown since THE GREAT DEPRESSION with just money and 2 quarters of negative growth, we would not call it the biggest recession since TGD.So what do we got? YES, SHORTING OPPORTUNITY! Prepare you ammo, ready to shoot it down!

TEH:

TEH

Friday, July 24, 2009

US market rallied ... and well above 9k level. It is like KLCI well above 1100 level and HSI breaching 20k soon(expect that today). I saw AUD at 2.90 level now. Copper at a high ... and almost everything giving us positive indicators to .... BUY!! Yes, buy buy buy(not bye-bye-bye, ya). Hehe ...

I m 70%(yeah, right. Sigh) exposed in markets currently, and going to buy a HKSE's babe later as it retraced from HKD1 level to HKD0.80 now. Will be collecting it ... but with PE above 30, once the market collapse, this will certainly dive sharply. Game enough for such silliness? hehe

真实 - 张惠妹 <--- one of my fav by Ah Mei. My sis bought me the CD(2001).

8.55 am : Higher opening now ... queueing to sell some.

10.30 am : E&O failed to reach my 1.16 level and back to 1.11 level. I think I will pick this one up and keep as my collection. Hmm ... no, no ... I will clear it for a small loss. Hmmm ... but I like this fella(I m from Penang la) so, can I keep it? Hmm ... no? yes? I dont know!! Arrghhh ... stress-stress!! hehe ... see how fickle minded a trader could be? Can you identify with that? Hehe
12.20 pm : KLCI down a little. ZiJin down 2% and Gold stands at 950 level. Crude oil priced at USD66 now ... are we seeing USD70 soon?

2.15 pm : IOI set to drop? Hmm ... right-issue issues again.

10.05 pm : I sold IOI-cj and TM-CI and Sinopec-c5 and AnnJoo-wb TOO early. All these shot higher AFTER I sold them. Hmm ... I need to learn to maximise my profits, rather than 'happy' with my target prices. My timing is very bad, indeed. Hence, I m going re-analyse that.

BJToto at 4.38 and Kossan at 3.60. Tenaga is retracing too.

XingQuan, the new china-shoe IPO is still moving lower.

Hey, Zelan looks nice, ya.

TEH

Thursday, July 23, 2009

LOVE LIFE 珍愛生命 永不放棄



Thanks for the clip. Yeah ... many touching moments. :-)

Love Life - English version




DOW at 8881 level, crude oil at USD65 and gold maintained at 950 level. KLCI has been shooting higher each day, lead by 'blue chips'. Tenaga, PBBank, Sime, IOI and such have been steadily inching up. What are the reasons for such a 'sudden' huge movements? I wonder ...

Yes, many registered 'better than expected'(but the expectations were very low?) financial results for the quarter and also, many economic indicators showing we have bottomed out??! Serious? Hurray ... global recession is over soon, and we should continue to accumulate, waiting for the big 'bang'. It will be the strongest bull-run for the coming 3-years. Hold on to your horse, I mean ... BULL. Yeah ...

Taylor Dayne - Tell It To My Heart



The Danger of Selfish Desire

Craving is a fire which burns in all beings : every activity is motivated by desire. They range from a simple physical desire of animals to complex and often artificially stimulated desires of the civilised man. To satisfy desire, animals prey upon one another, and human beings fight, kill, cheat, lie and perform various forms of unwholesome deeds. Craving is a powerful MENTAL FORCE present in all forms of life, and is the cheif cause of the ills in llife. It is this craving that leads to repeated births in the cycle of existence.

Once we have realised the cause of suffering, we are in the position to put an end to suffering. So, how do we put an end to suffering?

Taken from : Four Noble Truths(page 77) - What Buddhists Believe

Kossan with forex losses? Can buy for keeping? Kossan at 3.66 vs 3.68 now.

9.05 am : KLCI in red? Queueing to clear UEM at 1.64? Thought I want to keep this babe? Hmmm ... I prefer to play with rubber, I guess.

10.22 am : Hmm ... Kossan not done at 3.60. UEM waiting at 1.64 ... clearing 17217.hk at 0.150(at 0.145 level now) for profits. Sinopec still moving higher. Hmm ...

10.45 am : Kossan at 3.72 now. Bye-bye, Kossan. It touched 3.62(I m at 3.60) and bargain buyers are here?!

11.20 am : UEMLand cleared at 1.64 for another dinner. This is the 3rd third I m with this babe!! Hmm ... LionInd flying off today, and I didnt grab her.

1.30 pm : KLCI up another 6 points, and at 1154 level now. HSI going to reach 20k level soon.

2.55 pm : For the 3rd time I m going to say : Celaka punya UEM. Kita sell, dia naik. Haha. UEMLand at 1.66 now. Hmm ...

4.15 pm : Kossan done at RM3.60. My HKSE's call-warrants are still shooting higher and 17217.hk done(I think) at 0.15(bought on Monday my first HK's CNOOC-cw at 0.13). I bought just a bit of it, so I think the profits just enough to cover my brokerage fees? Will check on it tmr. At the moment, my Sinopec-cw up 18% ... and clearing it tmr for for 25% profits? We shall see ...

p/s 1 : Oh, of coz my buyings are fictional, k? Dont tell me you bought 17217.hk on Monday too after reading my blog? Wish you luck, then.

p/s 2 : Oh, I didnt list my second Sinopec-cw's code? hehe ... err ... so that I can simply put that I gain 25% ma, can ar? Hmm ... I m going cracko soon. Hmm ...

5.10 pm : KLCI up 3.45 points and HSI at 19800 level ... wow, HSI going to break the 20k psychological level pretty soon. When markets shooting higher, I will only look into my holdings to SELL. And at the same time, sniffing for those moving lower(in a bullish day!!). So, Kossan is nice ... but might be a knife, so be prepare to HOLD forever? Hmm ...

So, I m still holding on to BJToto-cd, GenM-cj and Sinopec-cw for my call-warrants play.

KLSE : Petra and GPacket gadai-ed. Left with Kossan and E&O will be cleared soon for small loss(B : 1.13).

I m going to 'catch a falling knife' tmr. I told my friend LL just now. Hmm ...

10.10 pm : DOW up about 60 points in the opening. Wow ... DOW breaching 9000 soon.

10.15 pm : DOW up almost 100 points now. Selling time again tmr. Night.

TEH

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Bonnie Tyler - Total Eclipse of the Heart



My baby girl is one today ... my two kids are my only inspirations for me to continue to work harder, for their sake. It is every dads wish to give their kids the 'best'. To me, the BEST could NOT be bought by money. Anything that could be bought using MONEY is not valuable. Anyway, money is something I do not have ... it is essential and important. I have been nagged by my wife for my tidak-apa attitude towards money. There are students who still owe me money and I m pressured to collect money from them. I do not understand WHY human so obsessed about money ... take a look at MJ, he cant bring his money to his coffin, can he? And those alive around him are FIGHTING about money. Very sad world, indeed.

Someday, I have a dream of giving what is needed to my kids and give away all my money(if I have any, tho) to those who really need it more than I do. So, I will write a 'will' clearly that I want my money to go to my kids and charity.

9.50 am : KLCI up another 10 points!! I saw SingTel at 3.35 level now. Are you an investor, speculator, trader or punter? Hmm ... is there a difference?

11.10 am : Sinopec at HKD6.60 level now. Cleared some of Sinopec-c5 at 0.10(if you bought at 0.08, 0.085, 0.09 and 0.095 ... time to clear your positions, ok?) and queue at 0.105 and 0.11 too.

CWP breaching HKD1, most of the green-stocks shooting higher now.

17217.hk at 0.145 doing well too, but since I bought just a little of it, I shall wait for 0.15 level.

12.05 pm : KLCI up 20points ... wow. It is a REAL bull running now, ya.

2.20 pm : Yawn ... waiting to go home to see my princess. So, I m not in mood to look at my monitor ... hehe.

Enjoy the song : Billy Joel We Didn't Start The Fire




2.35 pm : Sinopec-c5 cleared at 0.105, left with 0.11. Good day for Sinopec. KLCI still going up, by 22 points now. Come on KL-bull ... shall we see 1200 soon? yeah ... how about 1500 by year end? hehe

3.30 pm : Excuse me ... Sinopec-c5 done at 0.11. I m cleared of it. Hmm ...

4.35 pm : UEM dived ... done at 1.60. E&O got stucked as I failed to clear in these two days. It is at 1.09 now ... will decide if I need to give back the dinner I gained yesterday, and have maggi-mee dinner for next two days. Grabbed more BJToto-cd at 0.115.

As GPacket and Petra will no longer in play, I 'gadai'-ed both of them for UEM. Haha. This will be hold-on till forever?

Kossan .... what is happening to my fav rubber-play? It is at 3.70 level now. Queueing at 3.60.

China-oil : Sinopec the winner today vs CNOOC.

4.50 pm : KLCI up 14 points but not much of good news for my counters, except for good Sinopec.

9.40 pm : Liverpool 1 - Thailand 0. Babel scored. Many regulars not playing ... except Carra and Agger. Kuyt is there.

10.20 pm : I m still monitoring WHY Astro dived. At 3.40 level, it touched 3.20 this morning. I read that Astro is exiting India market(phew!! They always lose money outside la) ... so, that could reduce their biz-risk? Hmm ... I m still wonder if the privatisation 'news' will still be in play. Well, that is an old news. What I do like is the boss - Malaysia's no 2. Everyone is expecting Ananda to take Astro private(as he did with Maxis) ... and playing on that news. So, can we play along with the news and keep Astro? I rather stay home watching ASTRO, u know.

10.30 pm : Yeah ... Torres, Mach are playing in the second half. Voronin? Long time no see ..

11.35 pm : Drew with Thailand. Sigh ... so far the friendlies results are not good enough. Hey, MU beat our strong one-Malaysia-cum-boleh team, u know. They paid MU RM1 each player to score 2 goals? Ghee ... isnt that too cheap?

TEH

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

DOW up another 100 points. Confirming the bull run in the year of Ox? We all should welcome the bull ... it has been 5 consecutive trading days that KLCI surging higher ... we might be seeing 1200 level soon? Interesting ... hehe.

As for HSI, it was up by 700 points yesterday. Wow ... it is at 19,500 level now and will be seeing 20k today!! Yeah ... lets go to HK for shopping(dont forget to gamble there too).

Last month I wrote about China-Auto, before the latest sales data was out. As at yesterday, Geely and such auto stocks have shot-up some 30-40% from last month price. Reading much could give us some insight of the going-ons. But, I did not buy any of the auto-stock. Too bad.

Last week or so, I recommended Harbin Power to LL as it was retracing to such an attractive level(and she is a buy-n-hold kinda investor). Yesterday itself, it shot up more than 10%. These stocks are 'cheaper' compared to many in KLSE.

Now, crude oil price is rebounding back to USD65, and we might see further upside. Do you think KNM will move up to RM1 again? Many oil-stocks should be doing well when crude oil going to USD80 level.

Untitled-Simple-Plan




9.45 am : KLCI went down just now ... nice. Grabbed some E&O at 1.13 and UemLand at 1.64. Hmmm.

10.20 am : Not much of activities except some mild profit taking. IOI-cj and AnnJoo-wb which I sold yesterday are still steadily up.

10.30 am : Ok ... KLCI is green again. Wait a while ... time to sell la. E&O and UEMLand will give me my dinner for this weekend.

Ok ... done with my second HK's call-warrant moment ago(buying on market value at 0.067). Time to rest ... go canteen to find some snack.

10.45 am : Hey, I m not gone yet but UEM done at 1.69. Wow. My queue for E&O at 1.18 not done.

11.15 am : 17217.hk which I bought yesterday still moving up, gaining 20% now. Not a bad punt. Hehe ... wait, celaka punya UEM(for the second time!!) now at 1.71. Hehe

12.20 pm : Phew ... UEM at 1.67, luckily I sold it off higher just now leh. Hehe ... see the fickleness in us? Some really think profitting is easy. Tell it to those who are still losing money(80% of them, ok?).

Yesterday was Dbhd and today is AMDB. Why these property stocks being thrown away la? Can I be greedy when everyone is fearful? Hmm ...

4.00 pm : KLCI down bby 3 points now.

5.20 pm : KLCI finally closed in RED.

What is going on with Astro? It was suspended that day, then the price keep moving lower ... testing 3.25 level now.

10.35 pm : DOW up 60 points now. DOW up 100 points yesterday, KLCI went down just now.

TEH

Monday, July 20, 2009

Quiet Monday morning ... as office closes today. Locked myself in a room ... just a nice setting for some trades. KLSE has been UP about more than 50 points for the past 4 trading days, and many are expecting it to consolidate this week. Again, they might be wrong ... it might shoot up higher, or perhaps going lower? Is there a certainty in markets?

Just one week ago(last Monday), everyone is pointing DOWNWARD trend with some looking at 1020 level, or even some dives(to form the shoulder). BUT, on Tuesday ... there were some rumbles in KLSE ... and KLCI shot up. How come no one seeing it coming? It continued for the next three days. Many counters registered huge surge .. up more than 10-30% in that short 4 days. The rebound was strong ... and on Friday, we ssaw a huge turnover(almost RM2b) in KLSE.

As for HSI, it is testing 19k level again ... hey, it went below 18k, ya. I was caught off-guard as I was 'away'. I really missed the strong rebound but managed to clear most of my call-warrants and warrants. But, I do miss HKSE's babes ... just target to BUY one today, anyway.

9.50 am : KLCI up 10+ points. IOI-cj cleared at 0.28 moments ago.

10.25 am : BJToto-cd done at 0.125. Sinopec-c5 moving ... clearing at 0.105 and 0.11. Queueing for GenM-cj and Tm-ci. Sticking to my plans tho distracted by Dbhd. ECM and Incken moving too.

BJToto-cd done at 0.125 and GenM-cj done at 0.165. Others pending.

11.30 am : Very green today ... so, it is clearing time? Sinopec reaching HKD 6.50 level.

12.20 pm : KLCI up 15 points and HSI up 500 points. Yet another bull-day tho I m wearing RED. Cleared AnnJoo-wb at 0.66.

A bull-day ... missed Genting-co. It was at 0.205 level when I watched her, but wanted her at lower price. Missing her ...

Nice 5-digits number : 17217 ... going to buy toto 5D now. Lunch time.

1.55 pm : After a nice nasi-kambing lunch ..

Today school is OFF. So, I hv planned to be a trader for a day. I m back to the library, a quiet nice place for me to focus. I m working, actually. Library is the best place for me to stay focus, and besides I hv most of the financial/business magz to use. It is quiet empty today as it is a schoooling/working day.

What is it like being a trader? I like it today, so far. I won't mind 'retiring' from my teaching job and being a full-time trader!! Well ... that is AFTER I gained sufficiently 3 years later, with increased knowledge and experiences, that is. For a time-being, I will still teach, of coz.

To be honest, I m a very simple person ... too simple to stay in KL, so I ran to KK. But, KK is too big a city for me either. So, I think Donggongon(where the library is) is still a nice sleepy, yet developing small town, is suitable for me. I was even playing with the idea of getting a house nearby, retire from full-time teaching(can teach part-time at TARC here or tuitions as I still love teaching) ... quietly getting by my simple living here while diligently trading in the library!! Hehe ... what a dream. Hmm ... My wife is much more modern than me. And definitely my kids growing up with the so-called modern life-style. I cant 'fight' against the tide surrounding. I want a simple peaceful live ... and guess what, markets are VERY noisy place. Definitely we need to be calm internally, fully focus mentally ... to do the right decisions!!

Will I be a 'trader' one day? Hmm ...

4.40 pm : KLCI up 18 points. Phew ... a very busy and tiring day. I do not want to be a trader. Haha ... well, trading today is good as market keep shooting higher. I m done with LionInd, E&O and Tebrau today. Hehe ... enough for 3 days dinner, I guess. Not mentioning my warrants.

I m still holding Sinopec-c5, BJToto-cd, GenM-cj and 17217.hk(my first HK call-warrants. Hehe)

10.00 pm : It is tiring being a trader, mentally tired. Perhaps I m not used to it and still very new in these. UEMLand at 1.65. Might as well buy it for keeping since I like this babe. Hmm ...

TEH

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Once done the donkey's works yesterday, Sunday will be the time to read more and get our trading plan in place ... another one week ahead of trading. What will I be learning this week in my trades? What hypotheses am I testing?

By doing all these(and I don't even know IF it is the 'RIGHT' thing to do?), it gives be confidence to trade. Planning is the most important part of trading, for me. I can be talking to myself, kicking fuss and debating internally. I could be wondering and wandering IF what I have done agreeable to many. HOW those top 10% consistently gaining from stock markets?

Thinking about Gold in GS.

1.00 pm : Will gold making a rebound and testing 1000 level again any sooner? If so, how should we be prepared to trade this coming rally?

KLSE will be going higher this week?

China's 10 million kw wind power station

Workers will begin construction on China's first 10 million-kw-level wind power station in the middle of this month in the far northwestern city of Jiuquan, Gansu Province. It is difficult to not quote Bob Dylan singing "The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind." That temptation will be sternly resisted. Important to get the potential power output clear. If it works according to plan, the final output will be greater that the Three Gorges dam.

Wu Shengxue, deputy head of the Jiuquan Municipal Development and Reform Commission said this wind-driven power station has been designed to have an installed capacity of 5.16 million kw by the end of 2010, 12.71 million kw by the end of 2015 and 20 million kw by the end of 2020.

He said, "The installed capacity will eventually reach 40 million kw. Total costs on the project are predicted to exceed RMB120 billion($17.6 billion)."

The government of the remote Gansu Province aims to take advantage of the abundant resources of wind power. Under its blueprint, the 2020 installed capacity could surpass the current capacity of 18.2 million kw enjoyed by the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydropower station by total capacity.

China View reported that to date, six wind farms are in operation in the city with a total installed capacity of 660,000 kw.

Wu Shengxue said, "By the end of this year, the installed capacity in the city is expected to exceed 1 million kw."

Sinopec to buy Addax

Today seems to be the day that China solves many of its commodity and energy problems. First off Sinopec has finally agreed to purchase Addax Petroleum for US$7.2 billion, making it the largest Chinese oil and gas acquisition to date. Addax has assets in Africa and Iraq which would provide a much needed boost to Chinese energy supplies. At the same time, the deal would provide a benefit to Addax shareholders in the form of a 47% premium on the company's share price on June 5 the last day of trading before it was suspended by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Largest Iron Ore Deposit

Next we go from oil security to that of iron ore. Beijing yesterday said it found Asia's largest iron ore deposit in the northeast of the country with a reserve of nearly 3 billion tons. That could be the answer to China's iron ore import problem. There's only one snag: The ore is 1,200 meters below the surface meaning the extraction costs might make it too expensive to pursue. But this all could just be for show during the current price negotiations with miners, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale as China Metallurgical Mines Association said the start of production could be three to four years away.

BJ-Toto : It touched the 52-week high at RM 5.35, retraced to RM5 before DIVED to 4.30 level. Why is there such a huge gap in the chart? I don't know ... but, perhaps I might buy 4-digit Toto ... hmm ... 0883 ... tmr.

11.55 am : Tired. night.

TEH

Saturday, July 18, 2009

"Buying into the financial-services sector these days is like riding a mechanical bull on its roughest setting. Buying into one of the Direxion funds is like riding the same mechanical bull during an earthquake. It's a wilder ride, but take the time to notice the rubble around you."

I like what is written above. We may not see mechanical bull in Malaysia(anyone know of one? I wont mind trying!!) but it is very popular in US. Yes, this is about BAC or Citi. Don't worry ... our Malaysian banks are very resilient. Just look at how PPBank, MayBank or AMMB doing in KLSE. Hehe

王傑 是否我真的一無所有 <--- Wow ... old song taste nicer. Hehe

Sinopec

If you read my post weeks ago, Sinopec was retracing and I sms-ed JL to look into to buy(but he misunderstood my sms and he bought at the spot at HKD 6.30). I kept was thinking ... fine, tho that is not the best of price as Sinopec was still retracing!! I placed the 'faults' on myself, as a 'teacher' ... not giving specific instructions(i was so busy that too). Never mind as I know at HKD6.30 is still a good price. It retraced to HKD5.80(JL's stop loss level ... I was surprised that he wanted to CUT it off as I thought it is meant for investment in oil-stock in China?). But managed to asked him to hold(or average it at HKD5.40 level or so). Crude oil retraced to go below USD60. Well, Sinopec went to HKD5.50 level. No action taken except a decision to hold-on.

Two weeks ago, I tried to share with him(the only person who has DIRECT contacts with me as he is learning well) Sinopec's call warrants. One listed in KLSE is Sinopec-c5 as it went down to 0.075 level(low at 0.07) with low volume. I was collecting on it ... while looking into Sinopec's warrants in HKSE.

So, guess what happens to Sinopec last week? It went up to breach HKD6.00 again ... while its Sinopec-c5 still not moving much but was at 0.08/0.085 level. I bought more of it ... seeing the 'improve' of crude oil price. Mind you, you need to READ and follow the news in China to know that weeks ago, China has a approved of the hike in petrol retail prices. And the related news about Sinopec to be bullish on this counter? I m not 'bullish' but for short term(1 to 3 months period).

Sinopec went above HKD6.30, our purchase price yesterday. Guess again what happens to Sinopec-c5? It was activated ... and touched 0.10. I was queueing to clear it at 0.10(not done) and it closed at 0.09. So, guess my clearing price again? Yes, 0.10 and above. What happens IF next week Sinopec go below HKD6 again? Its call-warrant will go below 0.90, obviously. For someone who 'chased' it at 0.10 yesterday, it will be a huge paper-loss ... but IF it jumps up to 0.11, that is a 10% gain in few days trading? Hmm ... very confusing, right?

While I m writing these lines, I m AWARE that some novices(like me) THINK playing with call-warrants are high risk but gives high returns. NO RISK, NO GAIN. Hmm ... very in-correct mentality, ok? Do read more investment books, please.

That also explains WHY I will NOT write anything much about the RISKY call-warrants I m playing with. I do not even want to share much with JL, as I do not want to encourage him into the gambling den!! I teaches fundamentals of investing ... and will continue to encourage others(including my readers) to INVEST in good fundamental stocks.

But I do expose myself to JL about how I camouflaged my buyings. So far, he bought TM-CI at 0.105(but due to some reasons, he cleared at 0.10 for small loss) as his first call-warrant following my buying into TM-CI(I trimmed some at 0.10 for small loss and was queueing at 0.09 level but it only went down to 0.095). Mind you, I cleared my positions at 0.12 two days ago and still looking to grab it back.

Remember I wrote about Axiata vs Digi? That was the time I started to grab Axiata-cb(you may want to read my last month posts about Axiata, ya).

Axiata = TMI ... LL asked me about it when she read that post and I said Axiata should be an OK stock to buy(and hold??). Digi still ranging at RM20 to RM22 level. Axita made some moves in recent days ... and LL came to me yesterday 'regretting' not buying it. So ... my normal message to her(being a friend) is NEVER to regret what you bought or DID NOT buy. From her words so far, she still really need to learn NOT to REGRET. Decisions made at a point should be based on WHAT we think the BEST at that particular point. REGRETTING will NOT change any of the situation, ya.

Learn this : Never look back at your trades(gain or loss) IF you can't control your emotions. It is like looking back to my past memories with my gfs before I got married. Haha. We may NOT be able to fully clear our memories(sweet or sour) but definiitely we could learn from that experiences, right? So, I will see it as a waste of time or waste of 'hei'(sai hei, in Cantonese) to look back with remorse or regrets. That could even be a block in shielding us from more opportunities in front. Think about it, ya.

11.35 am : Nice chart by Gamuda. Is Ling still around? Didnt read much about him anymore ever since he 'step-down'. Gamuda in play ... you know WHY, right? Look at Jaks and KHSB. Any link? Hmm ... Gamuda-cg is in my list but I didnt focus on it ... so, I skipped this one.

Political Issues in Corrupted Malaysia

9.15 pm : Actually I wanted to continue to write about stocks ... but the death of Teoh saddened me and making me angry about our governements OFFICERS. If I have to write about my anger towards these people(they are EVERYWHERE ... from schools, hospitals, EPF offices ... ALL departments!!).

Frankly, I am NOT aware of what is going on except for business/economic news. So, I m not aware of what my colleagues were talking about in office days ago. Generally, I DO NOT know what is going on in whole Malaysia or even the world, unless those issues will relate to my financial education.

But ... I want to pause a while and read the front page of THE STAR ... "PM vows full probe".

I m sadden(it has been a emotionally down week for me, personally) ... and angered by these nonsense. Sadden as we cant do anything in this country. Angry as I do read and follow our politics news.(I stopped everything at the moment for my financial education).

Well ... I think I want to drop this. I want to continue my home-work. -pause-

Supermax in Biz-news channel 502 now. Stanley in interview. Yes, rubber-counters were in play for past 1/2 weeks. My fav is Kossan, tho I never buy any rubber-counters. I do not use condom anymore. Hmm ... Topglove has shot up RM1+ since I written it last week at RM6.35.

Problems faced by Stanley's Supermax : 1. Foreign workers 2. No Natural Gas supply to local industries 3. DOE asking him to change his Biomass fuel to Natural Gas, which there is an acute shortage in Malaysia(err .. they export it la).

One good point he pointed out ... Johoreans are paying higher WATER BILLS than Singaporeans who is getting the water from Johore!! That is ridiculous!! <--- his words. I m reading CS's 4 pages report on "China : A broadened recovery". I rather read these reports than reading local government-controlled newspaper.

10.30 pm : ZOOMED into 5 counters to trade in KLSE next week. And grabbing an oil-stock warrant(call) in HKSE ... Clearing AnnJoo-wb too. Noted.

11.40 pm : Tired ... time to rest.

TEH

Friday, July 17, 2009

DOW done its stunts again ... up about 100 points last night. Crude Oil Prices above USD60 now, failing to go below USD58 level, and at USD62 now. Are we seeing another strong surge in stock markets today or next week?

10.10 am : Profit taking mode ... KLCI in reds. If you THINK market will still move up, time to collect? market sentiments could change drastically, in weeks ... days, hours and even minutes!!

11.11 am : KLCI up and down a little. Fickle minded. We want to see if there is a firm decision if it wants to go UP or DOWN. Choose one la, Bursa.

11.25 am : Cleared UEMLand at 1.61 for my today's dinner. My OSK and CIMB are very happy to have a client like me, as when I gain/lose money, they GAIN. Well, I bought 5k units at 1.58 yesterday(and it closed 1.57) and as it moved lower just now, I bought another 5k at 1.55 and another 5k queue at 1.53(not done). Then, when market moves higher ... I calculate the amount of money I need for dinner tonight, and OK ... sell at 1.61(the intra-day high this morning WAS 1.60, ok?) Hmm ... then, LUCKILY I cleared it at 1.61(it is 1.61 vs 1.62 now la). So, tell me .... can this be taught? It is NOT advisable to trade like this stupid manner in the first place. You get your heart-beat pounding seeing it up and down and then ... the loss/profit could vary from gaining Rm1k to losing Rm1k in a day!! Arrghh ... market is a stressful place. I wont trade IF I m not emotional stable or my FULL focus is not here. Understand ar?

Now, I m explaining WHY no investment books will teach a person to trade. It is too HIGH of the risk and MAJORITY of us could not take it, emotionally. Tell me this ... IF I m not so diligent to learn, do you think I can gain to pay my dinners every week? At times, I CUT HUGE ... but when I do not trade short-term(contra and such), I gain HUGE too. Fair? Tell me ... how to write it down in the blog LIVE here ... moments by moments? Not possible and not advisable. I m taking a HUGE RISK, I do know. If we are in markets, we REALISE the risk, but to THINK that taking high RISK then only you could profit HIGHER is NOT A RIGHT MENTALITY.

Ooppsss... I m speaking to myself la. Hmm ...

I m queing to get back TM-CI and Affin-wc but I dont think so I could get it today. Wait for the market to dive ...

Grabbed LionInd at 1.29 when it retraced just now ... and going to clear it now, for my tmr's dinner. Tmr no market for me to gain 'dinner' money ... so, need two trades today to gain two weekend dinners!! Wah ... no easy leh.

11.50 am : While I was typing my UEMLand fictional story, LionInd done at 1.32 moments ago. It is at 1.31 vs 1.32 now. Go and see la ... I m BS-ing(bising minus ONE i). Hehe ...

12.05 pm : Celaka punya(Malay way of cursing) UEM ... %^(^ I clear that bugger, it still going up to 1.63 now. haha ... now, IF you are in such a position, you have ways to learn la. Dont try to be funny ... or predict the movements. Do not look back as after lunch, I will be back to grab another dinner!!

Till then ... lunch time. Wait ... UEM, u really celaka la. LOL

1.05 pm : KLCI closed 6.25 points higher ... well-above 1100 level now. I was 'away' from Monday till Wednesday, and KLSE jumped!! Talking about timing(even when we get upset/emotional, we need to TIME it. haha). So, yesterday I gladly cleared most of my warrants for profits. Some I hv been holding for 1 or 2 months!! Yesterday morning there is a huge surge in the market(up 20 points), you know. Today, T + 3 ... many taking profits or clearing time. So, the reddish in the morning is expected(hey, respect DOW la ... it went up 100points, u know).

Oh yes, UEM back to 1.61 ... phew! LionInd at 1.31 ...

CWP downed today ... click on its news ... then, you know a little WHY it went down today. But, it is still at 0.90, and I wont touch it till it move below 0.80. How about my 1171.hk? it is at HKD10 level today, and it was from 9.20 level days ago. I was targeting at 8.80 level. Hmm ...

2.50pm : KLCI up more than 10 points ... that is better.

3.25 pm : Sinopec is doing not bad ... China GDP at 7.9%? A good report from Bank Of China. You may want to download the document from the website.

4.20 pm : I was chatting shortly with a good friend of mine from KL. I encouraged him to invest!! He is actually bought a stock years ago, but never really look into learning further. The MAIN reason a person will tell me is "I dont have much capitals". Ok ... so, I m going to expose(when I m free to write) how I started with RM10(borrowed RM5k) last year ... keep accumulating my bullets and today, I m moving forward in acquiring my knowledge in trading and investment. To me, everything else are EXCUSES human given to themselves ... not to do something. Once you started ... you know that you need to be committed and focused.


TEH

Thursday, July 16, 2009

This is my 440th post(I dont count, it is written there). I dont care to count how many posts, how many visitors, how many commented, how many e-mail me, how many came to my chat box, how many blah blah blah ... simply amazing how we human so attached to STATISTICS. Our 'craving' for data, for digits and numbers are simply amazing for past thousands of years!! And now, in the so-called IT-world ... we are really hungry for MORE digits/numbers!!

If you are involving in stock-markets, you have to get used to NUMBERS. From the stock prices to the annual reports, we are bombarded by numbers!! I m drown.

Besides numbers/digits, we have tonnes of economic news and financial/business news. Then, of coz we have our broker's reports and those CNBC/Bloomberg attacking us with more news, more predictions and contrary points of views.

Are all these needed? No for most of us, in my opinion.

But for those working in financial/investment line, YES it is crucial to be updated.

So, what a stupid Maths teacher(who DO NOT like numbers!!) reading all these financial news for? This is a good valid question which I m trying to answer(sorry for the late reply?) in one of the e-mail.

First of all, I DO NOT read most of those news(I m working from 8 am till 9.30pm, mind u) but just the headline. Then, I will only selectively read those related to what in my mind at that moment. For example : CPO retracing from RM2500 level to RM2000 now, GolderAgri dived to SGD0.30 level ... WHY? WHY? ... so, my mind will search for answers and IF I happen to read about CPO/GoldenAgri or related news, I will READ to analyse or reason out the causes(to my best abilities). Yes, it is PERSONAL ... i hv the quest for my WHY WHY WHY? And I m stalking GolderAgri(it is aspeculative counter now, which one is not, anyway?) with interest to BUY, so obviously I should know more about the company, CPO prices and such, right? No? Hmmm ...

Secondly, as I hv mentioned ...one day, I might want to teach 'investments' to lay-man from an amatuerish lay-man point of view!! But, I need to know what all these are about before I could even talk to anyone about 'stock market'? Hmm ... if you are going to buy Genting(KLSE) and hold for few years ... then, there is nothing much you need to learn, I guess? Anyway, most probably ... I wont go into that extend.

At the moment I could think of two main reasons on WHY I will continue to read much about all these 'unnecessary' data/news. The first point is much more relevant. I like to learn ... especially all these financial/economic/business subjects are NEW to me. I like to enrich myself with knowledge. Instead of my usual 'discovery channel' or 'national geo', I changed the package to CNBC/CNN or Bloomberg.

Someday, I believe it will benefit me more than I expected. Till then, I shall continue to read and learn. I m humbled as I m still such a novice(25% knowledge so far? How can we quantify knowledge, anyway?) ... and I have still so so much to learn.

We all should continue our education, beyond our degree(s).

8.20 am : SIngTel done at SGD 3.25(B : SGD2.70) after holding it for a month or so.

8.55 am : I will be looking to CLEAR my positions as it is bullish again today as DOW shot-up AGAIN last night. I will look into HKSE to buy ...

9.30 am : What a BULL ... is it full with shit or some gold coins hidden inside?

9.50 am : KLCI at 1117. Wow ... up 20 points. Those who bought on Monday will be very glad to clear today or are we seeing a stronger surge soon?

11.55 am : I just came down from my lecture. Wow ... TM-ci done at 0.12 for huge profits!! Affin-wc done at 0.14 too this morning. Wow ... Axiata-cb also done at 0.35(goodness it is at 0.385 now, as if I know la). I will want to mention about TM-CI when I m free or if I remember as I taught JL how to play with call-warrants and gain much. He bought 70k units at 0.105 and clearing at 0.12 or higher ... how many % is that? That is how I 'played' with Affin-wc(bought 0.115 last week and happily released it just now) and Axiata-cb(buy and sell from 0.25 level). Talking about GREED and FEAR? Hmm ... I m wearing RED shirt today, and gladly clearing my holdings.

UEMLand done at 1.58 too. Noted.

HSI up another 300+ points and I did not manage to get my 1171.hk.

NOTE : Please understand that THIS BLOG is for PLEASURE READINGs, so DO NOT TRUST any buying/selling here. All the characters in this blog is FICTIONAL. Please read the DISCLAIMER. Thank You ... and for those enjoyed my BS here, hehe ... continue to enjoy it as I m enjoying BS-ing.

One of my ex-student wrote this in her facebook : "Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any More than standing in your garage makes you a Car".

Take a deep breath ... inhale the wisdom. Ok, my point is ... writing a BS-money blog doesnt make a person MONEY MINDED. Or good writing an investment blog doesnt make the writer GOOD in his investments decisions, UNDERSTAND? Hehe

3.00 pm : KLCI stands at 1114. I m queue-ing to clear more of my holdings. I want to rest from markets by next week. I want to be away. As I put it, we should not trade/invest when we are being 'emotional'. I m glad today(this morning) that I have managed to clear my call-warrants positions(left some 20k IOI-cj). I have cleared most of my waarants too, and left with AnnJoo-wb. As for GPacket, Petra and UemLand ... I will hold on for a while.

10.30 pm : KLCI at 1108. CIT is in big trouble in US, and I m listening Paulson BS-ing on CNBC, live from Capitol Hill. DOW is hanging at +10 points. Nokia drops 15% now. Harley profits dropped 90%.

Warrants play

Yeah ... initially I will only teach JL how to see GOOD fundamental counters in March.

We are the world



I was so naive, then. I really thought the world are united and they will help each other. In today's world ... I hv grown up to understand that what they are singing or preaching may not be what they have in their heart. It is like a 'battle-field' out there ...

As much as it saddened me to see us living in such a world, I m glad that we are in Malaysia. Tho I may be 'upset' with our corrupted gov-officers, hey ... this is REAL world to me. I hv to accept it, face it ... shallow it(bitterly?) and shut-up.

I wish I m still an innocent, ignorant child ... where I m not aware that we are all actually 'fighting' each other. One day, I need to explain to my kids(that world is not as nice as I hv painted to them so far) ... and teach them how to defend themselves. DEFENSIVE ... I m not. I rather let the 'bitterness' go ... what is the point cursing others, right?

I may not pray as much as I should have but I do believe in God. I believe in NOT hurting others(if I could not help them) ... as God will know. So, shall we sing We Are The World in more sincere mode ... I saw this song played in MJ's funeral ... and shed tears. Ghee .. such an emotional jerk I am.


TEH

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

DOW not moving ... GS in lime-light. While many expecting a range-bound trading this week with bearish views, KLCI sprung up yesterday!! It is kinda un-expected but I did not monitor for past 2 days. I will not monitor for this whole week, as I m still re-structuring my plans/funds. By looking at it, I will be tempted to trade!! But we should not trade when our focus is not there?

koRn ft. Amy Lee - Freak on a leash



"It is true, I will stick with you like a glue, giving you blue and you won't have a clue" Haha ... I was laughing when I read this line, one of the girl wrote in her facebook!! Perhaps, if I m her boy-friend, I will be VERY scared!! Haha.

Kim Wai(??) : Sorry that I accidentally deleted your comment. Please re-post the link. Thx

9.35 am : As I want to be away from markets and continue my readings on 'option-trading', I couldnt resist the temptation to take a peek(never give in to temptatiion? LOL). Wow .. KLCI up 5 points!! Impressive. Now, whe I saw MEMS, L&G and IRIS in top-20 most traded counters yerterday and gained huge %%, I think of the high risk KLSE are in at the moment. Today I saw MMM in top 10 most active counters. Oh boy ... I want to share what the nice yet experienced OSK's dealer told me the other day. Later, may be.

12 noon : Gpacket moving? Wow ... look at KNM. Look at KLCI!! I missed the boat this time as I keep myself away. Never mind.

SingTel is above my selling point of 3.20 but being a greedy amateur, I m STILL holding to it.

When do I feel the pain?

I dont really much pain losing money in markets(not that bad la, at the moment). I dont feel the pain losing my handphone recently. But, I do feel the PAIN when I m losing a friend, losing someone I loved. This is called 'attachment'. We as human could attach to something or someone, and the PAIN of losing it could be tremendous for some. If it is a physical pain, we could take a pain-killer. But if it is an emotional-pain, TIME will heal? Yes, I have been at this situation many of times ... so, I will let go of it. The PAIN will go away, I believe.

Not to get myself too emotionally work-up(I m an emotional jerk, u know), I will let go. Carrying on with the 'thorns' will hurt every now and then.

We are all so different . So, what causes us PAIN differ from individual. I still feel sad of passing of MJ, ok? But listening to his songs for the whole week will NOT do me any good. In fact, I m becoming so vulnerable, which is NOT good for trading/investing.

What causes me PAIN again? If I m to lose a person close to me.

How do I deal with my pain?

As I do not feel pain for materials items, I could carry on rationally without them or get them replaced the next day.

But, if u lose someone closed to you, can just simply replace him/her the next day? Ever fall in love and then broke-up before? Do u get a new gf/bf the next day? Can it be replaced in the first place? Hmm ...

So, what I will do ... hmm ... be quiet. Silent. Let the time drift me away, and when my memory waning, the pain is too. Whatever reasons/excuses ... let it be.

The pain of losing my granny(after >15 years) still there but I no longer feel anything much. God loves her more etc etc are consoling words people will give us. It does not take away our pain of losing our loved ones ... but we feel 'good' being consoled. The pain is still there .. till TIME swept it away.

TIME is what I need ... to re-think of my purposes. Rest, I will but will not quit.

Easier said than done, as always.

What I fear most?

I m not talking about GHOST/ROLLERCOASTER which I will avoid at all cost! Hehe ... Being in markets for 1.5 years and with hundreds of trades after that, I have reduced substantially my FEAR and my PAIN.

What fear me most is to lose someone close to me. For that reason, I have 'managed' to distant myself practically from most of people surrounding me(such as my students ... there are many of them are very nice. It is always hard to say 'bye-bye', hence I distant from them emotionally!).

I read from Andrew Matthew's book about 'attraction'. You attract what you fear most!! So, by realising that, I hv let go of my fears so that the reality will not be so fearful. To face it(like it or not) ... and letting go.

3.20 pm : Wow ... what a bullish day. KLCI gains 18 points and we are seeing 1100 level soon!! WOW ... I really miss this rally as I was 'away'. Hmm ...

3.55 pm : KLCI up 20 points ... we are ALMOST there at 1100 level. Hurray ... tmr will be my clearance sales!! Queue to clear SingTel at SGD3.25. I will slowly clear off all my stocks and will only focus on warrants.

4.15 pm : We officially announce the arrival of KLCI at 1100 level. Welcome to the land of bull-land. May we see 1,200 level next month or so ... and everyone gain much. *smile*.

As I enjoyed speaking to my OSK 'dealer', I m making an appointment to see her again next Monday. She told me REAL stories of traders/investors situation ... the FEAR and the GREED which I feel I will benefit. I do know a few remisiers now. I do heard plenty of these 'bizzare' stories. When I was VERY green last year, I tend not to believe that actually 80-90% of them really losing money. I felt relieved last year that I was one just one of the majority.

By learning from mistakes(my own and others too), we can actually improve in our trading/investing. As long as we do not let our emotions control us, we should be OK. Otherwise, markets could be a VERY emotional place to be.

If markets continue to shoot higher, I will slowly CLEAR most of my positions(take profit/small loss) and ... stay sideline. I need to rest from markets. Wake me up ... when September ends, ya.

As bull is running, the bear will be hibernating ... for a while. *yawn*. Summer is too hot for the bear, anyway. Haha.

TEH

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Missed my blog, so I want to be back! LOL. Enjoyed the kit-kat?

2.15 pm : It is bullish today after DOW managed to shoot up last night. HSI up 400 points(downed 450 yesterday) and many of the HK's babes wearing green today. KLCI up almost 10points!! wow. I will not buy/sell anything at the moment.

Quotation : Never give up and never give in - Hubert H.Humphrey

I have this quotation on my office-desk ... it reminds me of my commitments towards my investment goals. Yes, rest if I m tired but never quit. Never to give up in any games we play. Never to give up on our personal goals as GOALS keep us moving forward. Without goals, we will be 'lost'. Never give in to temptations, to greed and to the surroundings. Never give in to the pressure.

Be diligent. Be humble. Play by the rules and I should be OK. I m reminding myself of many basics of my investing philosophies.

A visit to OSK, Sabah

I visited OSK and chit-chat with my dealers yesterday. We share ideas about investing etc etc ... then, I 'pop' the question to her :

How many percent actually losing money in markets? She replied in Mandarin : Out of ten, 9 of our clients still losing money. That translate to 90% of them still in losing positions? She calmedly said : Shi De(YES). Then, WHY so many still placing their money in markets? Her answers were expected and of what I read from books and even written about it. GREED, LACK OF KNOWLEDGE, LACK OF PATIENCE ... etc etc.

She gave few example of her clients on their losing positions when I probed further. Of coz she doesnt disclose their identities. These are what she told me, while I listened attentively ... like a student.

Case I : A 'big' client who is rich, taking margin financing(RM500k) and bought about 30-stocks in 2006/2007. Most of her stocks turned into penny stocks and she have to top-up her amount when these stocks dived in 2008(instead of cut-loss). Currently, she is still holding to all the 30 counters and only about 15(half) are still actively traded. 3 have been de-listed(huh? I was surprised as there are only few counters de-listed in KLSE so far?). 3 out of 30 is 10% de-listed. Most of her counters have NOT reached half of her purchase price!!

I thought that is an extreme she is talking about ... but, she said many of her clients are in these positions, just that she is rich-enough to continue to lose money!! Otherwise ... margin-call, CUT CUT CUT. It is not a choice in 2008. In 2008, she has 'lost' many clients as they are STILL licking their wounds.

Case II : A man bought KNM at 0.42 months ago. KNM went above RM1 and she called him to advise him to take profit, but ... he said : Not yet la, the broker's report given the target price of RM1.25!! To her surprise, the man bought MORE of KNM at RM1.02 days later. He is STILL holding on to it today ... KNM at 0.73 level. If he sells it today, he will still make some profits BUT guess what ... he won't sell till the RM1.25 target.

Candidly, I asked her ... he must be a young & naive investor, huh? She answered : No la ... he is one of our 'old' clients in his 50s. He is very 'resilient' as he will stick to his Target Price irrespective of the situation!! Then, I wondered WHY is he acting like a 'novice' investor? She said : Oh, he bought Kinstel before and could really hold till the target price and gained substantially. That was before the 2008 dive, of coz. Hmm ... human emotions in play.


Now, IF you are the top 10%-20% who actually PROFITTING at the moment, some gained substantial amount, we should ask these minorities ... WHAT DO THEY DO DIFFERENTLY from the majorities? So, if you are one of the few who are PROFITTING(and consistently done that for past 10-20 years) ... perhaps, you could share with us all(in markets) how do u REALLY do it? I will be the first person to learn ... and will appreciate the most of the 'tips'. Bear in mind, whatever written in investment books are meant for GENERAL PUBLIC and the authors knew the 'low' mentality of general public in investments.

4.25 pm : HSI up more than 600 points. KLCI up 17 points now.

TEH

Monday, July 13, 2009


Taking A Break

This blog will take a break as I have to re-structure my plans and funds. A pause will do me good, I believe.

So, I will not buy/sell anything this week until I cleared my attics.

Take a break. Have a kit-kat, on me. Hehe

Happy Investing and Trading.

TEH
General consensus at the moment is KLSE will consolidate and inch downward. Sell in July, and go away? Come back ... after Sept? Can we actually use the 'historical' data to predict what will be expected this coming months? Hmmm ... I doubt it.

First of all, we are we are in a new era, with 'new' global financial situations that never been seen before. Can we really compare the current situation with the 1929 depression? I was not even born, then tho I read a little about it. In Asia, we certainly can't compare the current financial environment with the 1997 asian financial crisis??! I dont see KLCI dives below 400 level? In fact, KLCI hanging well above 1000-level and we still have local funds supporting it well, thanks to the najib-mania. Congrats Najib to hang on well for 100days now. So, KLCI hanging well for past 100-days too ... can it really last?

As there are very little foriegn funds coming to our shore, we don't expect a huge dive as what we seen last Oct/Nov. But, EPF(a long term investor?!) is selling stocks?

TEH

Sunday, July 12, 2009

In markets, NOTHING is a certainty. And due to the current situation, no one could actually PREDICT in exact accuracy what will happen next week or even next month. Oil going below USD60 now, do you think it will go below USD50? How about KLCI? Will it stay range-bound, going up or down? How about KNM or Scomi? Will KNM going below 0.70 or Scomi going below 0.60 next week, IF oil going below USD55? Even IF oil didnt reach USD55, do you think KNM/Scomi will still be going lower or higher? These are questions in everyone's mind.

IF we are going to predict such movements(like many analysts will tell you so), it is called TIMING the markets. If you read those investors book, they will advise us NOT to time the maket, which I fully agreed. Well ... as no one could tell us the directions of the markets(especially in current situation ... bear rally? a mere correction? a reversal? or an initial BULL-run?) ... there are too many factors that might affect the directions of a particular market and surely too many factors affecting a particular stock!! How do you quantify SENTIMENTS?

One more question I asked myself last night ... Does anyone need to read extensively in order to invest in a stock or two? So what if a person know so much?! I was sharing with my wife this question - as she will see me crazily reading those reports/news - so, I explained to her in term of 'buying a fish in wet market'.

If you ask me to buy a fish in the market, DIE la ... first of all, I admit I hv almost ZERO knowledge about fishes. And there are so many type of different fishes sold. There are many stalls selling fishes. And the PRICE or FRESHNESS varied. I will logically ask : Which market should I go to? Should I just go to the nearest market? What is the name of the fish again? Ikan Merah? Oh ... I know, red in colour!! How to see it is fresh? Err ... the eyes not smashed?? Ok ... next, how much normally it will cost? Ok ... I guarantee you that I might not buy the best of Ikan Merah(if I bought the right fish in the first place) as I will grab a red-coloured fish, at the nearest market ... the first fish-stall I could see!! Without asking much about the price, I will pay the money and won't even bother to count the changes!! I bet you wont ask me to buy fishes anymore!! Hehe

Then, I further explain to her another 'extreme' ... her father. Her father will go fishing(literally, ok?) as has many fishermen friends. He used to stay in kampungs with them. So, since young he will go fishing ... his knowledge about fishes are well-above normal you and me, for sure. He know what fish to catch, where and when is the season!! He can tell whether the area(of fishing) is full of fishes by doing some 'field-test'(which I still can't understand how). He knows the different type of fishing rods are for different purposes(I used to think they are all the same!!). If you think of fishing, please consult him, not me!! Logical, right?

So, do you think my father-in-law will go to market to buy fishes? He might go there and check out those fishes but BUYING? No way ... chances is that he knew most of the fish-mongers!! And yes, he will bring his fishing rod to certain area to catch the fishes, after speaking to his fishermen friends in the market!! And chances is VERY high he will catch what he planned out to.

By relating that to my wife, she could understand better why I feel I need to acquire as much knowledge I could. Yes, I do have the quest for knowledge. It is also a personal satisfaction. If I have the knowledge, I feel that I could catch a bigger fish, someday. At the time being, we should only try the shallow rivers using some jala or fishing rod.

11.30 am : I lost the momentum of writing about fishing and fishes. Hehe. Never mind.

As HSI failed to breach 19k level, but retracing below 18k ... it will be time get back into HKSE? Currently, there are fears are everywhere that DOW might dive below 8k level. But Shanghai's Composite index still holding well, above 3k at the moment.

8.40 pm : More new call-warrants last week : TraHK-c1(ETF Tracker Fund of HK) and A50CHTK-c1(ETF FTSE A50 China Tracker). I have just added these two into my call-warrant list as they have longer life-period(of 18 months) and they are related to CHINA, the strong emerging market.

KLSE warrants : AnnJoo-wb, E&O-wa, SPSetia-wb, Sunway-wc, WCT-wb, Waseong-wa, YTLPower-wb. These still remain my fav warrants play.

As crude oil price retracing, I m stalking oil-stocks and its related warrants:

China : Petrochina, Sinopec and CNOOC call warrants are traded in KLSE.

KLSE : KNM and Scomi will be good swing-trade counters

TEH

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Crude Oil price going below USD60 ... and we might see USD 55 soon? Yes, last week I wrote about oil is NOT supposed to be above USD70, I guess someone listened and 'throwing' away oil cheaply? Hehe ... well, G8 placing USD70-80 as fair value. If that is so, MAS hedging it at 100+ will continue to lose money?

I was reading Peter Schiff's book I just bought last month, and it is generally about his views regarding US-markets and written from Americans, actually. He did mention about 'peak oil', where I(and JL) agreed.

Coldplay - 'In my place'




Coal-Play

China ShenHua, China Qinfa, YanZhao Coal, China Coal and Ming Kei Energy

TEH

p/s : ColdPlay = CP = my signature

Friday, July 10, 2009

Amber Energy, a new IPO in HKSE ... listing at price 1.66 and over-subscibed by almost 1250x. At 1.66, even if I queue for 2.00 level, I do not think so I could get it. The surge is expected. Anyway, I will try to queue for it at 1.80 level. Another newly listed China Qinfa can be considered too. IPO priced at 2.52, and at 2.90 level now. Next week, an air-cond company from China will be listed in HKSE. I thought China is 'cold' unlike Malaysia here ... do they need air-cond? Hmm ...

Welcome XinQuan to KLSE. More China IPOs expected in KLSE soon?

黃安 - 新鴛鴦蝴蝶夢



I will look into 1171(coal) or 3330(gold).

10.40 am : Amber(the model?) at 2.85 level now.

11.20 am : KLCI up 3.33 points. Lunch time

MARKET TALK: HK Shipping Stks Set To Fall On Ship Rates Report

0101 GMT [Dow Jones] HK shipping stocks likely to fall on Nikkei report rates on container ships from Asia to North America have been dropped for first time in 3 years, reaching 6-year lows. Recent weakness in Baltic Dry Index also expected to hurt investor sentiment; BDI down 19.7% over past 7 sessions. ICBC International's Ernie Hon tips shipping stocks to fall by 2%-3% today; says near-term outlook remains bearish amid still-sluggish exports. "The (Nikkei) report should serve as an excuse for investors to cut holdings in these stocks amid a still weak overall industry outlook," says Hon. Among shipping stocks,China Cosco (1919.HK) ended +1.1% at HK$8.60, Orient Overseas (0316.HK) down0.9% at HK$32.60. (SUT)

12.30 pm : I m comparing some of the coal-mining counters in China. Most of the PE values are below 10. As much as I like 1171.hk, I like the Dynamic Energy(code :0578.hk too).

Dynamic Energy

This counter came from 25 cents and trading at 1.10 level now.

TEH