Tuesday, June 30, 2009
This morning I was having a friendly chat with few of my colleagues instead of my 'normal' routine of reading biz-news. The chat was non-financial. Haha.
But, one lady(call her JM) said she is interested with 'financial' and planning a RM6k investment next year. One of her friend is 'playing'(her word ... I corrected her that stock-markets are NOT for playing, it is for investment) with stock market and 'betting'(her word again, and I corrected her that you don't BET if it goes up or down) on some stocks. Now, if someone telling you they could 'bet' whether it is up or down, it could not be equity-markets in KLSE, ok? Sell-shorts are prohibited in KLSE(banned). Perhaps her friend is playing with FKLI or FCPO, which I m interested too.
Anyway, I just gave her my blog-address tho I know she will not take it seriously. No one take personal finances seriously and even if they wanted to, they do not have a clear direction on WHAT to do first ... what to do next ... and sometimes I want to point it out to others, markets are NOT for everyone. If you tell them that investing is not just buy one counter your friend 'recommended' and then dont bother anymore about it, they might wonder what else they need to LEARN?
Oasis - Wonderwall (Official Instrumental)
I dont know about others, I started from scretch, from a small RM5k(savings) and RM5k(loan from bank - fully paid) last year Jan. The more I m reading and learning, the more I feel that I hv to learn. Again, I dont know about others ... I m still learning and hope to complete my investment-education in 5 years time and gain substantiially from there. Even if I do not gain $$$ sense, I hv gained so much in knowledge-sense. Perhaps, someday I could really coach a total newbie. Perhaps JM might realise that investing our money will be the best a person could do to their own being. Investing could be as exciting as ... singing in karaoke? Hmm...
This blog adress was given to many last year when I was excited creating a trading blog. Yeah ... as u know it, NO ONE interested. What?? You a kancil-driving teacher trying to share with us financial-concepts? Are you kidding me or what? I m not saying I m trying to teach others but trying to SHARE with others regarding their ways of accumulating wealth and also to share with those ACTUALLY involve in markets.
Cold-Crossfade <--- nice song, man. getting away from MJ 's songs ...
10.05 am : I m introducing another character in this blog(a fiction). We shall named him TimC. He is my ex-collague who knew me for 8 years now, tho since he resigned from teaching 5 years ago, I seldom see him. Yes, he is in this blog's story lines as he is also interested in trading but for FIVE YEARS, he is still thinking of REAL ACTUAL trading!! I was quite shocked as he told me that he is serious in his trading. So, I invited him(thru sms) to my blog ... and again, I do NOT expect him reading these lines!! Normal humanoids to me are predictable ... they say they want to be RICH or envying others being RICH ... they are full of DREAMS. No steps taken and ALL DREAMS. Lets not get to my critical point of views about people around(I was one of them, anyway). Anyway, welcome TimC.
10.45 am : SingTel at SGD3 level, and being the second most actively traded stock in SGX now. Interesting ... EPF going abroad and buying into SingTel after being fed-up with TM or TMI? Hmm ...
Saying bye-bye to my China Water as it is at 2.10 level now(I watched it reached 1.80!! Hmm). Bye-bye to my 1171.hk too. Sinopec starts to move ... this is for investment into China oil-markets. CWP at 0.88 and I m still looking at 0.70 or so to move in again.
3.00 pm : KLCI in red territory now. Hmm ...
4.30 pm : Did not grab anything ...
6.05 pm : KLCI down a little, it was up a little yesterday. Yes, are we suspecting anything? Hmm ...
TM-ci at 0.105 with TM at 2.93.
Monday, June 29, 2009
The dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades
China's central bank has reiterated its call for a new reserve currency to replace the US dollar.
The report from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said a "super-sovereign" currency should take its place.
Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan has loudly led calls for the dollar to be replaced during the financial crisis.
The bank report called for more regulation of the countries that issue currencies that underpin the global financial system.
"An international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency has intensified the concentration of risk and the spread of the crisis," the Chinese central bank said.
The dollar fell after the report was released. The US currency dropped 1% against the euro to $1.4088, and declined 0.8% versus the British pound to $1.6848.
Mr Zhou caused a stir earlier this year when he said the dollar could eventually be replaced as the world's main reserve currency by the Special Drawing Right (SDR), which was created as a unit of account by the IMF in 1969.
The PBOC said in the report that not only should the world adopt the SDR, but that the IMF should be entrusted with managing a portion of its member countries' foreign currency reserves.
"To avoid intrinsic shortcomings in using a sovereign currency as a reserve currency, we need to create an international reserve currency that is divorced from sovereign states and can maintain a stable value over the long term," the PBOC report said.
It also issued some veiled criticism of the US policies, saying that one of the major issues was that it was difficult to balance the needs of domestic politics with the requirements of being the world's reserve currency.
"The economic development model of debt-based consumption is most difficult to sustain," the PBOC said.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently joined Mr Zhou in saying it was time to consider an alternative benchmark currency for international debt.
But Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin then said "it's too early to speak of an alternative".
Dollar poses dilemma for Bric countries
By Katie Hunt Business reporter, BBC News
China and Russia fear the value of their dollar holdings may fall Brazil, Russia, India and China, collectively known as the BRIC countries, are holding their first formal summit in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.
On the agenda is the role of the dollar and its status as the world's dominant currency.
China, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Brazil have expressed a desire to see the dollar one day replaced as the world's main trading currency.
And fears that these big holders of dollar assets may be looking to switch from the US currency have unsettled financial markets and US politicians.
"Although China's call for a new reserve currency is premature, it is legitimate," says Shujie Yao, a professor of economics at the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham.
Chinese and Russian officials have questioned the dollar's status as the dominant currency on several occasions in recent months.
China's central bank governor caused a stir in March when he said the US dollar should be replaced as the world's largest reserve currency by the Special Drawing Right (SDR) - a unit of account issued by the International Monetary Fund.
And Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said at the beginning of this month that the idea of a "supranational currency" should be discussed at the Bric summit.
These concerns have in part led to a decline in the dollar against other major currencies in recent months and sent jitters through the market for US government debt.
As two of the world's biggest holders of US dollar assets, China and Russia fear that the steps that the US is taking to boost its economy and help it recover from the financial crisis could undermine the value of the US currency.
"If you own trillions of dollar assets, the last thing you want is any more dollars being printed," says Simon Derrick, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
"A 10% fall in the dollar has, in theory, a substantial impact on China's spending power," he adds.
China and Russia have already taken some small steps to diversify their currency reserves away from the dollar:
China has made arrangements with six countries worth 650bn yuan ($95bn) that allow trade to be conducted in renminbi rather than dollars
China and Russia have said they will buy bonds to be issued by the IMF
Data released on Monday showed that both China and Russia had trimmed their holdings of US government bonds in April.
But analysts say the Bric countries are unlikely to mount a real challenge to the dollar's supremacy.
Any concrete suggestion of a wholesale switch away from the dollar would dramatically undermine the value of their own reserves.
"They are expressing their frustration but there's little they can really do about it. They can only take steps on the margin," says Jan Randolph, head of sovereign risk analysis at IHS Global Insight.
These developments have not gone unnoticed in the US.
A weaker dollar and rising government bond yields can make it more expensive for the US government to borrow money.
This ultimately could lead to problems in financing the measures taken to help the US economy recover.
To address these concerns, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner visited China at the end of May to give assurance over the safety of dollar assets, and met with his Russian counterpart over the weekend at the sidelines of the G8 finance ministers meeting.
His charm offensive appears to be working, at least for now.
The dollar rose on Monday after Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said it would not be replaced as the world's reserve currency in the near future and China's vice foreign minister Ha Yafei has assured the US that "nobody is talking about dumping the US dollar".
China and Russia may now have decided that it is self-defeating to make comments that undermine the value of the dollar and thus the value of their own reserves, says Mr Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon.
But this does little to alter the basic unease Russia and China feel over their vast holdings of dollars.
"While officials may feel that it is appropriate to provide verbal support for the dollar, it will ultimately be their actions that matter," says Mr Derrick.
Taken from BBC News
Someone said those chartists are like astrologer, trying to predict the future(based on the past patterns). In a way, he is right. But many of us still do look into the stars(literally) for answers, right? This month is good for LIBRA and not so good for GEMINI. Avoid going out for those born in the month of Jan ... and so on.
Being a science student, we want proofs!! Concrete evidences to justify the claims. Hence, I used to laugh at the stupidity of many around me when they act according to the predictions(under their Zodiac) for the day or week. Interesting, right? Bet you do know of such persons!!
Being a Chinese, we were exposed to the beliefs of "Fung Shui" and such. It was not really commercialised when I was young(some 25 years ago) but today ... you may have tonnes of books writing on these related topics. Lillian Too have a short one day talk in Sabah recently for RM150 per person(I was tempted to listen, for the first time in my life, in believing in such) ... and she is a millionaire with the "World Of Fung Shui". Yes, I do bellieve she is very good in what she is doing. Do you place Fung Shui concepts as the main way of accumulating your wealth?
God and spirits : Well, we have known or seen before people 'praying' to some spirits to give them wealth. More often than not, they are those 'punters' in 4-D, Toto, horse-racing, mahjong-kaki, football-match bettings and any related gambling activities human could think of. I emphasized on the word "PUNTERS" as these are almost a pure luck!! Many in KLSE are praying for the bull-run or their particular stocks to recover or jump up higher ... these are mentality of gamblers. Recognising that could put us with a better edge.
So, are chartists astrologers in this sense? I was wondering about it as I m still learning the 'technical analysis' parts for stock picking or when I should sell-off a particular stock. I admit I m such a novice in these that I missed a whole large foot of it many of tiimes!! Sometimes I doubted TA really works or more likely that I have learnt it no-so-correctly.
to be continued
Evanescence - "My Immortal" <--- one of my fav song.
8.50 am : JL, u have a lower average on TM-ci, so I m clearing mine at 0.11(very long queue). I m also clearing my Axiata-cb and SPSetia-wb. I will try to clear most of my warrants by this week and to re-focus on HKSE. Do look into mining stocks or those you stalk, ya.
9.25 am : Not much of movements but KNM at 0.83 now.
Najib to declare his business policies - The Star
BURSA Malaysia hosts its annual flagship conference – Invest Malaysia 2009 – for hundreds of fund managers and analysts in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow and Wednesday.
One of the highlights will be a keynote address by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, who is expected to speak on “Malaysia’s Growth Drivers”.
It will be a platform for him to make his first address to the international portfolio investing community since becoming prime minister.
On that platform, he is expected to address issues on business which matter to foreign fund managers rather than matters of domestic concern.
Analysts, for instance, believe he will announce further liberalisation of property ownership by foreigners and the attractiveness of Malaysia for investment. On such terms of reference, this is a wish list that Najib might address.
TEH : I m definitely interested to listen to what Najib has to say. One day, I wish I could be among those attending such a talk/conference.
10.20 am : Done with Axiata-cb and SPSetia-wb for small profits. TM-ci and AnnJoo-wb still in queue to clear.
12.45 pm : SPSetia-wb still moving up? Axiata-cb up too? Hmm ... never mind. Too many for me to handle and focus, anyway(as I m working full-time teaching - I m not a full-time trader or a remisier or such la). No one paying me any form of $$$ for me to write this blog(to speculate and such) as this is just a personal note for myself(and a few of my trader-kakis).
At the moment, I m partially eyeing in HKSE but still 'busy' with my warrants/call-warrants. Are you bullish on Bursa? Collecting Bursa-CL could be a 'play'. I repeat, it is a PLAY ... not for thos ebuy and hold mentality, not for those too busy to even bother to know how KLSE doing, not for those who don't know what a call-warrants are. You know what I mean.
Yesterday, THE EDGE wrote about Bursa-CL. It has a low of 0.08 and at 0.46, do your math. The mommy at RM7 level, and this is a cash-positive. If you really THINK(guts-feel??) KLSE(or they called it Bursa Malaysia now) will move beyond 1100 level, then this is an attractive counter. How about ETF-30 in Malaysia? This is for those who THINK KLSE is bullish and the top-30 stocks in Bursa will be bullish-ing forward. An ETF(exchange traded fund) will be a good play. Well, I m NOT bullish on KLSE, so I don't buy these. But, I might trade Bursa-CL. Hehe
2.05 pm : Last Friday, I was happily sold off SpSetia-wb in the morning for profits(RM300+), then it dived down and I bought it back at 0.63(10k units) and sold it off this morning at 0.66 for another RM200+ profits. Guess what, I m queue-ing to buy it again at 0.65!! Silly, right?
That brings me to my AnnJoo-wb which I traded it so many times since the March rally. At 0.20 till sold off at 0.70, it is the most frequently traded counter I have done. Recently, I sold it off at 0.70 ... and when it dived last week, I bought more into it ... managed to sell part of it at 0.61, only to buy more of it at 0.62!! And currently I have an average of 0.59, trying to clear it at 0.63!! Guess what again, once it is sold at 0.63, I wont be suprise that I will queue to get it back at 0.60? Really silly, man.
What if I m finally get 'stucked'? Then, I will becoming a long term investors for these warrants. Don't worry ... it expires at 2013, I will console myself. Hmm ...
Well, I have no intention to get 'stucked'. So, I will cut-off if there are reversal. One may gain substantially with warrants or call-warrants but could 'hurt' badly too if it go the other way. Remember my writing days ago about AirAsia-ce? It is at 0.08 now. Will you buy it? It is expiring Sept 3rd 2009, mind you.
2.30 pm : I m queueing to clear TM-ci and Annjoo-wb and queueing to grab some Genm-cj.
4.30 pm : Someone just bought 200k units of TM at RM2.95 each. Wow ... It means, for every ONE CENT move(up or down) in TM's price, the difference will be RM2,000. WOW.
Today, the most active counter is TIME. And it gains more than 30% in one day trade so far. Impressive, ya.
12.10 am : I m tired, it is mid-night now. I want to continue my 'fung-shui' story but too busy with facebook just now. I need to zzzzzzzzz. Night.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
The more I read this book, the more I will want to recommend it to many to read. The many are those majority who do not like SELLING. SELL is a four-letter word. hehe
We could be selling for profits but the FEAR in us will be ... what-if the stocks move higher the next moment we sold it off?
We could be selling at our purchase price as we are uncertain about its next moves(up or down).
We could be selling at a loss as we FEAR that it might dive further down and we don't wish to 'catch' the knife.
I have been following its movements for a year or so now. Let say you bought into it at 2.80(before it dived down) as it was hovering at 2.70-2.90 range for some time. You were targeting at 3.15 or so to sell ... but instead, market was turning around. The news that Resorts bought some losing-money chip company(US) hit the press, and its price naturally dives.
How come it dives down? Many reasons WHY investors were SELLING ... it continues to dive in daily basis(I caught some at 2.40 level) and only temporary halted at 2.20 level. I averaged it at 2.20(instead of SELLING!!). Tell me ... will you sell it at 2.40 or at 2.20 as you have bought at 2.80?? Isnt it too 'late' to sell at 2.20 level? You mean, you never place a stop-loss but only a higher target price to sell?
LL bought into Resorts at 2.30(knowing that I bought at 2.40) but when it dived to 2.20, she asked if she should hold on. I did not really want to make a commitment in answering. I will rather ask a person : May I know why you bought it in the first place? If you could hold, better still BUY more when it dives down, it will be OK. The price will quite certain to recover. That is all I said.
I have an average of 2.32 or so ... and sold it off at 2.40 level as it rebounded. But, then ... the diving session continued ... all the way down, broke support level at 2.15-2.20 ... and went below 2.00. That was the time JL 'appeared' in my trading life, and I asked him to monitor this very beautiful waterfall. It touched 1.80 level before rebounded. At 1.95-2.00 level, there is a BUY signal and I told JL about it. JL bought at 2.05 level but sold earlier at 2.20(resistance level). yes, SELLING at 2.20 is OK as planned. We never know if it could break that level. Once sold, I dont believe in looking back into it. I m more interested with the LESSONS.
Since the March rally, Resorts have been moving steadily up breaking LL's 2.30 purchasing level ... and all the way up to 2.90+. During last week pull-back, it went down to 2.60+ level. As you bought at 2.80 level(remember??), when will you sell again?? Remain at 3.15 level? Excuse me, do you know how many MONTHS your money NOT WORKING from 2.80 till now it has NOT reach your 3.15 target?? Err ... by the way, who place the RM3.15 target? Some broker houses?
This is something I find it amazing ... Many do not look beyond one or two counters. Many do not even know much about investment plans. But, they will still put their money inside ... KLSE's hole?
1. DRB-Hicom 1.49
2. Lion Ind 3.50
3. Tan Chong
5. Hap Seng
10. BRDB 7.43
Highest Cash Per Share
1. YTLCorp 6.85
10. Selangor Properties 1.52
Highest Dividend Yield
1. MayBulk 11.76%
10. UMW 6.78%
1. Gamuda 43%
10. Parkson 20.5%
Note : The data as at 3rd June 2009 and taken from "Malaysian Business". The highlighted are in my stalk list.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Based on this study, we can say with confidence that over a lifetime of investing, an investor will reap a total annual return of 10% or more.If you compare this with the amount you could earn by owning CDs, annuities, government bonds, or any other conservative investment, the difference is considerable.
Let's see how that difference adds up.Suppose you invested $25,000 in a list of common stocks at the age of 40, and your portfolio built up at a 10% compound annual rate. By the time you reached 65, your common stock nest egg would be worth $270,868.
Now, let's say you had invested your money in government bonds, yielding 6%. The same $25,000 would be worth only $107,297, which is a difference of $163,571. Neither of these calculations has accounted for income taxes or brokerage commissions.
Now, let's look at the timid soul who invested $25,000 in CDs at age 40 and averaged a return of 4%. By age 65, that investment would be worth a paltry $66,646.
Michael Jackson - Remember The Time
I have written before about 'How to double our money' ... some will take longer time than others. Those timid souls who at least trusted the CDs, saved some of their money. I hv known many who basically have ZERO saving and some are living in 'credit cards', so to speak.
Right until today, I still have many many(of most of them, actually) who will NOT buy any stocks!! You need to understand that these are your NORMAL souls, they are not only timid ... but not 'enlighthen'. They are VERY scared ... VERY afraid that they will lose ALL their money and go bankrupt!!
They might go hysteria when you ask them ... err ... do you want to invest your money in stock-markets? It is almost impossible to convince them.
Arrrghhh ... why are you trying to con my hard-earned money??! Why are you being such a BAD person? Don't you know how hard I worked for MONEY, my financial commitments and such ... and with this little money in hands, I m NOT going to 'throw it away'!! You ... you ... you are a real gambler, man ... blah blah ... before we could explain the next line, we have given up. Never mind, I m silented.
It still happens to me everyday ... I hv kept VERY silent about it from my surroundings. Many knew I m 'involved'in stock-markets but no one will want to know how I am doing. They never ask ... in fact, they want to GET AWAY from me as all I speak about is stock-markets!! And they are very wary of me ... perhaps I will want to borrow money from them since I m 1.5 yrs inside KLSE and surely lose lots of money(economic downturn?). Perhaps, they are expecting this : It is a matter of time I will go broke. They sympathy with my 'gambling' habits and swear not to get involved with their hard-earned money. No way ... let the millionaires invests, investments are not for us. I m comfortable with my bonds or CDs, ok?
Now ... let us PAUSE for a while. THINK ... what is failing here?
Firstly, we are NOT being taught since young to INVEST. Our education fais badly in this aspect.
TEH : Get yourself FINANCIAL EDUCATION, please. How? Consult me five years later and I will help you(with a fee) to write your personalised financial plan. To begin with, read RICH DAD, POOR DAD.
Secondly, most of those involved in KLSE LOSE money. So many still hold on to the papers they bought before 1997 crash. These people(I m convinced that they are the MAJORITY!!) will paint such a scary picture about KLSE. Never to touch stock-markets blah blah ...
TEH : If you see me going broke someday in this coming bull-run, then you should be very scared. Your fears compounded, I guaranteed. Haha. But, if I m doing well, can I try to convince you that it is NOT that scary la. Stop talking to your aunties/uncles about stock-markets. THAT IS SCARY to me.
Thirdly, the 'herd mentality' in most of us.
TEH : We are so-so normal and I strong believe that being NORMAL is a huge obstacle in investing successfully. Be a contrarian(easier said than done!!!) and hold to our own beliefs is what required.
Fourthly, lack of motivations(plain lazy) and direction in investing.
TEH : When you are in fear of something,you will try your best to AVOID it at all cost. That is what NORMAL herd will do. If you are in fear, how are you going to find the direction in investing in the first place? And without proper direction, could one really find the motivation? So, my humble advice will be : Buy those self-help motivational books. SERIOUS. You need to be motivated and stay positive to go against HUNDREDS around you who are NEGATIVE, especially about stock-markets, ok?
Fifthly, lack of financial-IQ needed to succeed in stock markets
TEH : As many have a very misleading information about stock markets, one fails to see that it is just one of the INVESTMENT vehicles(like unit-trusts, properties etc etc). And as a novice wants to start investing in stock-markets, they get NOT SO CORRECT information from reading many of the books!! They will mis-interpret(or lack of abilities to understand) the information they read.
11.50 pm : I was reading Moola's posting about iCapital RM14m loss in their Axiata investment. Seriously, a 79% cut-loss is VERY steep. Ouch!! Double ouch!!. And what is the main reason that icapital needs to CUT it off?
I m talking about investment-sense of it(not emotional, I hope). Hence, I could not comprehend that a fund-managing company will cut 79% loss. It is really beyond me. Unbelievable!!
I m not trying to be-little the fund or anything. I will feel sorry for TTB, he is certain a capable person and been years in the investment-world. So, I still won't believe that he will make a decision to cut loss of 79% of his holding on Axiata. Hey, Axiata(TMI) could recover, given a longer period of time, ok? So, why take such a harsh decision? Why not cut if off much earlier? Better still, why BUY it to hold in the first place?
Moola has done a good job in questioning the logic. Yes, as investors ... we have the rights to know where our money being 'parked'. Wait ... except EPF and such funds as they are NOT answerable to us, eventho they are using OUR money!! That is another point.
If you place your money with iCapital(or any privately own managed-fund companies), you expect returns ... in the form of dividends and such.
I remember I shown JL how ASB lost more 50% of their funds(paper-loss only la, they may claim) and it is listed on their ANNUAL REPORT(I m one of their 'customer' and contributing RM250 per month into this fund, ok?) yet ASB could able to declare a 7% dividend payment. Not bad ... so, I don't care what counters they buy, as long as give me my 7% dividend per year or else I will stop putting my money in, ok? See? We don't care ...
But, if I m to place my money with a fund-managing company and it reported a loss of RM14m through a SINGLE investment, I will demand explainations. I know what investments are now, so I will certainly question the LOGIC. If the fund gives me the lame excuses such as market was bad, many of our portfolios are bleeding blah blah ... so, sorry that we could not give you the dividends for this year. But, we could be sure to give our investors huge returns in 2009 as we believe it is beginning of a bull-run ... who are they bull-shitting with?
So, if a person could gain consistently 20% returns PER ANNUM, that could be said as a 'good' achievement. In 2008, many of us lost some money(not as much as 79%, I hope). I lost about 60+% by AUG2008 when I decided to cut-loss most of my holdings and start 'all over again'. I was a naive 'investor' then with very little capital(RM10k only).
Do start 'small' ... because if you are very new to markets, chances will be you will be drown/lemas. Controlling of emotions are EASIER SAID THAT DONE. You may have read many books before you get invested but ... tell you what ... you need to read really MANY books to digest the concepts and find the common investment ideas that are suitable to your personalities. If you can't even do that, markets are a VERY noisy place ... you will be drown in tonnes of biz-news or economic news.
I want to write about all these ... the experiences I went through for 1.5 years(only?) and to be shared with many newbies. I do share about 40%(only?) with JL in this few months of guiding him. And I told him that he is one of the top 20% in KLSE at the moment as he is in positive region. But, investment is a looong process. We could not and should not count our chickens too early.
Anyway, always stick to our plans, may it be trading or investment plans. I hv learnt so many strategies that NO ONE strategy is best. Buying Genting and buying Genting-CM are certainly require different mind-set/plans.
Rule no 1 : Never to lose money.
Rule no 2 : Refer to rule 1.
Friday, June 26, 2009
DOW up 170 points. Will KLCI shoot-up another 10 points? If so, then I will be thinking of selling most of my holdings.
Michael Jackson - Smooth Criminal
Michael Jackson ... I used to love his songs, from Beat It to Bad. I will write about him, how I adore his moves and his songs/music are one of the best. I grew-up with his songs, imitating his moves.
9.45 am : KLCI opens higher but retracing now. Time to buy? I missed WCT-wb, SPSetia-wb(sold too early), WaSeong-wb and Sunway-wc.
10.30 am : Salcon and LCL on the move ...
10.55 am : KLCI turns RED ... hmm ... hang-on.
Michael Jackson - They Don't Care About Us
Micheal The Legend ... Many of his songs send a message to the world. World as it is now is no longer a peaceful place to live in. Yes, they don't really care. Be honest.
Michael Jackson - Childhood
He asked : Have you seen my childhood? So often we will judge others(too weird, too absurd or even pien-tai) when they do not do things NORMAL people will do. We are all unique, most of us will say that without conviction. We deem others as WEIRDO simply because he done something not to our tastes. This the shallow-minded society we are living in. We never try to understand WHY a person act 'differently', are they brought up with NORMAL childhood? So, before we feel like judging others ... look into their background. They may not be your "NORMAL" BORING upbringing ...
Michael Jackson : Childhood
Have you seen my Childhood?
I'm searching for the world that I come from
'Cause I've been looking around
In the lost and found of my heart...
No one understands me
They view it as such strange eccentricities...
'Cause I keep kidding around
Like a child, but pardon me...
People say I'm not okay
'Cause I love such elementary things...
It's been my fate to compensate
,for the Childhood
I've never known...
Have you seen my Childhood?
I'm searching for that wonder in my youth
Like pirates in adventurous dreams,
Of conquest and kings on the throne...
Before you judge me, try hard to love me,
Look within your heart then ask,
Have you seen my Childhood?
People say I'm strange that way
'Cause I love such elementary things,
It's been my fate to compensate,
for the Childhood I've never known...
Have you seen my Childhood?
I'm searching for that wonder in my youth
Like fantastical stories to share
The dreams I would dare, watch me fly...
Before you judge me, try hard to love me.
The painful youth I've had
TEH : I love elementary things ... and wish I could live my childhood in a different way this time. Perhaps I should buy a time-machine and turn back the time?
Michael Jackson - You Are Not Alone
Always remember, you are NOT alone ... when you get stucked inside KLSE's hole. When you cut losses, you are NOT alone. If you feel for a quick profits, you are NOT alone. 80% of them in markets are losing money ... if you are losing money in KLSE, yes ... you are NOT alone. In fact, with 80% on your side, you are the majority.
4.35 pm : Sold Affin-wc at 0.14 for small profits as I bought too much of warrants now since many dropped this morning. I would have not sold this one off if not because of 'lack' of cash in hands.
5.05 pm : KLCI not moving anywhere but HSI up 325points.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
by Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group
As Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has been known to say, “We wrote it. Did you read it?”
My slim hope is that the Chinese really and truly know what they are doing, because, in fueling investor optimism with such flair, they are playing a high stakes game. My worry is that they drop the ball, somehow, and the result shows up as a violent wake-up call for “high beta” assets... emerging market equities, energy, commodities and the like.
What happens next is far from clear. The huge [commodity] stockpiles could continue to grow at a breathtaking pace – after all, Beijing has plenty of greenbacks to work through – and the dragon’s data points could continue to impress, or at least not frighten.
But with that said, a stumble from the dragon... and the shock of a sharp, swift deflationary contraction immediately following... does not feel like a far-fetched scenario at this point. It would certainly have profit potential as a surprise event, given how far the notion seems to be from Mr. Market’s mind.
– Taipan Daily, June 12, 2009, “The Fate of This Rally May Rest in China’s Hands”
On Monday, the violent wake-up call arrived. You could say the week started off with a bloodbath... a “decoupling” bloodbath that took many investors by complete surprise. (But none who are readers of Taipan Daily we hope.)
The brutal sell-off was more or less led by emerging markets and hard assets. It was as if the World Bank had rung a bell. Out of the blue the race was on to sell anything and everything with any sort of connection to the grand “decoupling” theme.
Speaking of the World Bank, they are the ones to whom the financial media assigned blame. It was an awfully gloomy World Bank forecast, the wires suggested, that led to the carnage on an otherwise light news day.
But as Bespoke Investment Group astutely asked, since when have traders ever paid attention to the World Bank?
The need to match up trading action with a particular news item of the moment shows an amusing failing of the financial press. Many journalists approach the market like a television sitcom... as if every day were its very own episode, with no continuity or chronological buildup of events.
China Weighs Heavy
In reality, the market had been inching ever closer towards a sell-off for some time. Volume was steadily shrinking rather than rising – a sign that the bull move was running out of steam. Public companies were coming out of the woodwork to issue record amounts of stock.
Unconventional measures of sentiment, like the bull-bear ratio of money flowing into Rydex funds, showed worrisome levels of optimism. Ill winds were blowing on multiple fronts, as we noted in these pages.
And, perhaps most importantly, the magic pixie dust sprinkled by China had finally begun to wear off.
The bulls happily embraced the China story and ran with it as fast and far as they could, taking oil and copper and the like to eight-month highs.
But, as it turns out, much of China’s stockpiling drive looks to have been pure speculation. And not even official speculation sanctioned and planned out by the mandarins in Beijing... but instead a fast and loose misallocation of funds.
As part of China’s economic stimulus plan, Chinese banks were ordered to lend massive sums to steelmakers, iron ore importers and other industrial players. A large portion of these funds was plowed directly into big commodity price bets.
The iron ore debacle, for example, was almost certainly a result of speculative excess at the local level. Many traders scratched their heads on hearing the news of 90 large iron ore freighters idling in the water for two weeks or more, waiting to unload at overflowing Chinese ports.
Who would plan such a thing? Nobody would. The backlog came about due to a communication snafu. Stockpiling decisions were made by cash-flush managers at the ground level, as a wave of stimulus funds encouraged them to gamble. Beijing lost control of how those funds (handed out as cheap loans) were being used.
This kind of thing is bad news on multiple fronts.
For one, it highlights how little control Beijing actually has over how China’s stimulus funds are being spent. For another thing, it puts many ground-level Chinese industrial producers at risk of insolvency if the price of, say, iron ore falls too far.
“Last year people who stockpiled went out of business,” notes Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie. "I know one distributor who stockpiled six million tonnes of steel and went bust when it dropped by more than half."
Making Sense of the Story
There are at least two important lessons here. The first one is, try to make sense of the story. In my trading service, for example, I have been wary of the “China leads the world” theme for months, mainly because the basic story line (as touted by the bulls) never quite made sense.
Meaning, how was China ever set to lead the world into recovery when China itself is still so dependent on exports to a weak global economy? How can Chinese business activity truly be picking up with electricity usage falling, rather than rising?
And how could a stimulus plan slapped together by Beijing bureaucrats really solve the issue of internal domestic demand – China’s biggest hurdle and a challenge that simply will not succumb to short-term fixes?
There is a big bullish story in China. But as with other emerging markets, it is a longer-term story, hinging on the day when these countries truly make strides towards weaning themselves from the economic crutch of exports to the West. We are closing in on that point, but are not quite there yet.
Trader or Investor?
Another important lesson is recognizing the difference between trading and investing, and not getting caught in the no man’s land between the two.
A good working concept here is “the Mountain and the Valley.” Here’s what I mean:
Imagine a great, vast mountain off in the distance. You don’t know exactly how far away it is, but you know it’s there, waiting to be scaled. Meanwhile, in between you and the mountain is a fog-covered valley. You don’t know what kind of ups and downs will be in that valley, but you know the trip across won’t exactly be smooth.
The difference between trading and investing is, investors tend to focus on the mountain and more or less ignore the valley. They keep their financial and emotional risk low enough to handle the ups and downs without losing their cool. Deliberate staying power and long-term conviction are the operative phrases here. With those two things, many hard asset and emerging market investors will be able to look past the volatility of recent days and ultimately do just fine.
In contrast, the trader is very aware of the ups and downs of the valley. Rather than ignoring that volatility, the trader focuses on it. The trader’s advantage is thus speed and flexibility – an ability to buy and sell a position repeatedly as need be, get a sense of how the terrain is going, and move quickly and fluidly when the timing calls for it.
So which one are you? Steadfast and true, or flexible and fluid? The two temperaments are rather different. Some versatile folks are traders and investors at the same time, but even then, not often with the same positions (or even the same brokerage accounts).
In closing, do emerging market equities and hard assets still offer excellent long-term investing opportunity? Absolutely, without question.
In the eyes of the investor, this week is just another dip in the valley. But in the eyes of the trader, China’s stumble – and the demise of the bear market rally – have created a shift in the near-term landscape worth exploiting.
copied from Taipan Daily
I m accumulating GPacket and TM. I bought AnnJoo-wb, Affin-wc and SPSetia-wb after lunch yesterday, so if it jumps up again, I will be glad to take profits. I still need more bullets to look into Sunway-wc, WaSeong-wa and WCT-wb. Maybe I will look into Ramunia later.
As for call-warrants, I bought some IOICorp-cj ... but could not get Resorts-cj and Genting-co. Axiata-cb interest me too. They are still playing on Hovid and Dataprp. Tebrau, Jaks, UEMLand and such as being pushed up again. These are for trading and speculators are manipulating on them. I don't wish to be caught in such a play. Even KNM I will not touch.
As for oil-stocks, I will let JL to handle Petra, Kencana and Sinopec. These are heavier and for mid-term/long-term invesments. We both believe oil will rally up once the economies recover but I m skeptical it will be soon. I dont think so it will be end-of this year, but seeing it into end of next year or so.
So, I will like to buy into HKSE's babe with P/E less than 10, and these giants will benefit from the China's gov stimulus. Many believe Mr Wen will come up with another huge stimulus, to meet the 8% growth for this year. Steel counters have been doing very well in China, but they are no longer 'cheap'.
China Water back to HKD2.00(I missed it at 1.80 last week). China Agri and China Green are agricultural play. But, I m still eyeing at China Auto stocks such as Denway or Geely, which I do believe Shanghai will be Detroit ONE DAY. Zhongda could give us a huge profit if that stands. How about XinYi glass?
How about the green-stocks? Solar and Windpower stocks? This is one sector that I like the most ... but the anticipations are too high. Many have been shooting up few hundreds percent and their P/E values ballooned. CWP at 0.90 level(touched 0.78 yesterday) with P/E about 50. Unless I want to buy US green-stocks? Many have been shooting for the sky, anyway. I still like JASO and STP. HTM is still in my radar.
Mining ... you can't miss this sector as this are commodities play too. Gold, Silver, Copper and such ... yum-yum, when you blend them together ... following some recipe, you surely want them in your portfolio. Hence, I m looking into mining ... too many to list it here. 3330.hk and 0246.hk might be my gold-stalk-stocks at the moment.
No more bullets to buy into Air China or Telco. I m spoilt with choices. Once I m done with my warrants by next week, I will move back into HKSE. At the moment, KLSE set to rebound. Hang-on ...
Replies to some e-mail.
8.20 am : I m a self-motivator ... so, I m committed to my investment goals. With a glimpse of 'financial-freedom' hope, I will work very hard on it. I will do whatever I could(legally with dignity, please) to acheive my goals, step by step. I know that I need to use both parts of my brain as investment/trading in markets is afterall not a science nor arts. In fact, I feel it is more to arts rather than science. Being a 'science' students for 40 years, I switched my brain to 'arts' part last year!! It is not easy(not easy is an under-statement) initially, but once I m so used to the financial terms, it makes more senses.
I feel that I m blessed(thank Lord) with a good brain, not-so normal mentality and strong characters in order to acheive my goals. I m only 25% through at this point of time. So, I will always re-evaluate my goals and re-define it as I see it necessary.
This blog is supposed to record my trades : What I buy/sell, what I intend to buy/sell and my emotions involved. But, I found that I hv been drifted away from my MAIN purpose(objectives) of my blog being created. Knowing that there are 'some'(I don't care how many, anyway) followers, I might be wanting to 'please' some readers. Gosh ... how silly I was at times. THIS IS MY PERSONAL trading blog, so I m NOT obliged to answer anyone!! I m reminding myself again ... if I want to put some nudes here, it is my choice. If I want to put many youtube songs that I like, it is also my perrogative. If I want to write my 'phamtomised' portfolios, I can do so ... hehe. That is the freedom I have wanted in my blog in the first place. I shouldnt be so cautious of what others say, but to write it as I like!!
I told JL the other day that I traded AirAsia-ce due to the news but not written here till I sold it off. You see, I do not want some aunties/uncles buying into the counters I bought wihtout knowing what I hv in mind when I bought it. I m afraid they might BUY and HOLD too long. If they bought at 0.135 and STILL hold on to it, I will feel sad that I have 'influenced'/'encouraged' someone to buy into that call-warrant!! Airasia-ce touched 0.065 days ago!! I will feel VERY bad if someone losses money due to my writing, ok? JL mentioned that it will be very foolish of ANYONE to buy anything by reading blogs or brokers' reports ... but yes, MANY are THAT foolish, JL. By the way, I cleared AirAsia-ce at 0.145 the next trading day.
Anyway, I m still glad that there are some good experienced ones to share with me their expereinces and pointers. We should share opinions/ideas ... and take it with 'a pinch of salt'. Do understand that NO ONE could tell you which stock will jump up tmr or next week or even next month. We need to educate ourselves to protect our own investments.
That answered some of the questions(thanks for bothering to read my blog and e-mail me) which were hanging for weeks, and I have wanted to write about. My brain is NOT organised, so pardon me if my 'answers' are not to your expectations. Err ... do I owe anyone any answers? Hmm ...
9.10 am : KLCI up about 7 points. Cleared AnnJoo-wb(part-of) and SPSetia-wb for profits. Many more trades I do not(and will not) write it here. One of the reason, as stated above ... I do not want someone buying into what I m buying and get caught(and I will be cursed?). Secondly, many of times, it is very quick and too busy to jot down my queues. You may see that I m 'free' to write now as I m queuing to SELL those I bought two days ago and yesterday.
And sometimes the moment you sold it off, it jumps higher. It happened so many times that I m so used to it. Profits(even tho small) are still profits to me. SPSetia-wb set to move higher. Hmm ... it is emotion-in-play which I m learning to block it off. Easier said than done.
Axiata vs DiGi
Many of my colleagues changing from the Celcom-broad band to DiGi. JL just did that too. So, I m feel the frustrations from my current Celcom-narrow band. It is so slow ... and many of times, I could not get online. Hence, I m changing to DiGi this Sat. CELCOM --- this is a message for you.
But, in the term of stocks ... I will prefer Axiata(TMI) as it moves faster. DiGi is a REAL slowcoach. Months ago it was at RM20, today it is still hovering at RM21-22.
10.20 am : KLCI up 9.60 points. I just bought more of TM-ci at 0.11. I think I have an average of 0.105 for this one, so ... it is enough of it for the time being. Will sit on it till it jumps up or if it dives down, will get stuck?!
GPacket at 0.745 and I failed to top it up when it went below 0.70(I queued at 0.65 2 days ago!). Petra at 2.65 level ... and I did not top this one up either. I was too busy with my warrants on Monday and Tuesday.
I love my AnnJoo-wb so much that I m queue-ing more into it at 0.62 now. This is the problem of NOVICE traders, undecided. I was glad to sell for profits just now at lower price, but chasing it again at higher price. Silly, right? Hehe ...
12.40 am : AnnJoo-wb done at 0.62 and I hv an average of 0.59, I think. Hey, someone read my blog and bought more of TM?? Well, TM breaks RM3 and TM-ci at 0.12. I just bought more of it this morning(at 0.11).
Affin-wc at 0.14(bought 0.13 and 0.135 yesterday) and might need to clear this for my weekend dinner ... if I hv more bullets, I will sit on it till it jumps, and it will.
SPSetia-wb jumps higher AFTER I sold it off. I don't have much bullets to hold on as I m focusing on AnnJoo-wb and TM-ci. I m tempted to clear my SingTel for profits but ... SingTel is totally a different play?! Hence, I need to be discipline. Another thing is that my bank loans still pending or declined. I m willing to pay 15% interest but they still feel that with my small salary and financial commitments(car and house, I cleared my credit-card. Hehe), I m 'tak layak' for the loans?! Sigh.
Petra(2.66) and GPacket(0.75) are recovering well ...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
I will only look into the warrants that have dived 20-40% for the past few days. But, I hv not decided which one to go for ... just wait for the queues later ...
Topglove : Due to the swine-flu pandemic, Topglove has been manys fav. Yes, fundamentally this is a good company(largest in the world, ya) and will attract investors. Bloomberg asked some question to its CFO yesterday. They are opening up more factories to increase their productions!!
12.25 pm : With most up, I could not catch anything, except more of TM-ci at 0.10(someone threw away 1,000,000 units at 0.10!!).
2.25 pm : Yes, i hv learned to queue lower ... it is take-it of leave-it kinda attitude. Because trading are random, we dont know which one will jump up or dive down.
6.15 pm : KLCI up 13.37 ... with many registered more than 5% profits.
Do look into warrants ... Hovid and Olympia up more than 20%, AnnJoo up more than 10%, with many more. Sunway and WaSeong up almost 10%. TGOffs, Ramunia, SPSetia and WCT too.
I will NOT look into others except warrants and call-warrants in KLSE. That was my plan since the beginning of the year after I found that I like highly leveraged financial instruments.
Currently, I m learning about options(call and put) and will begin to buy into it once I m 'ok'. I m experimenting with it(with no cash involved yet). Another financial instrument I do like is Forex. Start small ... grow once confidence grows. That was how I deal with KLSE. Will share how I started from a mere RM10k as an initial buying only one or two counters in KLSE last year ... and today, I m dealing with 10x the amounts, trading warrants and HKSE.
Next step? Foreign options and forex.
I m currently STILL very much in novice level due to lack of experience. Yes, I m only one and a half year into these things. So, there is NO WAY I could be 'experienced'. Nothing can replace experience. It is like teaching Maths for 20+years, I could teach with a pen, and done most of the questions(pre-U level) without using much of the brain-cells. I believe, one day ... I could be an experience trader/investor too(like the 20% who profitting from markets) ... with EXPERIENCE. If I do not trade, do not dare to lose lots of money, I could never understand the PAIN. Once you got cut so frequently, you are 'immuned'. But, a reminder to myself not to REPEAT the same mistakes again and again. I admit I still do. *piak*.
Anyway, I need to be very focus in my doings as I m dealing with larger sum of money now. I need to remind myself to be rational, to stand my two feet on the ground and NEVER get distracted. Easier said than done as I hv been distracted many of times.
Enough said ... I still have years to learn from many. I m still reading books, and using small portions of my profits to buy more books. I will attend seminars and to learn more. That is my education journey. And feeling the ups&downs of markets is my ... Trading Adventure.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
I still have few babes out there, expose to the danger. May be I need to cut of GPacket(support at 0.70, I might BUY more instead) and LionInd(I like this babe, man).
Somewhere Only We Know
Corrections or Reversal?
First of all, the so-called correction is OVER-DUED. If you believe that this is just a temporary pull-back, then you should be glad to BUY more 'cheaper' stocks. Just be ready to BUY even more when it retraces further. But, if you think it is a reversal ... then, you have no choice but to CUT it off as soon as it reaches your cut-loss point. It is a total contradiction. So, it's all boils down to YOUR OWN BELIEFS.
If you listen to Bloomberg/CNBC on daily basis, you will know what I mean. So many contradicting opinions(opinions are CHEAP, anyway ... or is it free?) being aired and without any knowledge, you could be 'lemas'. It is ridiculous ... I was smiling cynically last night when I heard someone started to talk about BEAR RALLY and the situation turned so bearish!! Suddenly, we are talking about BEAR RALLY and being bearish?? Haha ... it is from the same person speaking about BULL-RUN or green-shoots just 2 weeks ago? Oh boy ... Bloomberg/CNBC blokes are simply amazing. They are good in TALKING and that is why they are WORKING there, see?
If you listen more, read more ... and ANALYSE some facts, you know that you should NOT listen to too much of noises. NO ONE could actually tell if the global economies recovering NOW but Soros said 'the worst is over'. May be ... may be not. There are simply too many financial policies might affect the world financial systems globally. Whether it is G20, G2 or G8 ... it doesnt matter. Or we have BRIC in the picture now. If you follow these developments closely(like I tried to), you will be confused!! No GOV will like to expose their strategies in protecting their own countries. There is a constant struggles between them.
I will still stand on my views just before this rally started in MAC. I still see this as a bear-rally, and we will be going through a deep dive(but of coz I dont know if this correction could be THE dive of the year?) ... and I want to be ready to buy on stages, preparing more bullets in months to come to BUY. Yes, buying in 2009 could NOT be the PEAK, don't worry. BUYING in 2007/2008 was buying-at-the-peak. But, is 2009 THE BOTTOM? Time could tell ...
8.45 am : Brace yourself for the 'killing' field.
10.15 am : I hv to let go of my babe, LionInd(B : 1.25, S : 1.16). Well, I will want to only play with warrants as many diving down, creating a beautiful waterfalls. As I m busy today, I will not be buying any or even monitoring.
GPacket : Going below 0.70, at 0.675 vs 0.68 at the moment. Will keep this one as it is reaching its low at 0.60 ... perhaps that will be my next entry point.
Petra : At almost 2.40 level now, it is retracing about 20% of my purchase point and I m still waiting(for some lucky stars to shoot?) to see how low it could go, to accumulate.
HKSE : CWP at 0.83 ... and all REDS in HKSE too. Sinopec going back to 5.50 level. LingBao moving below 2.80 now(JL : BUY at 2.50 level) while China Cosco below HKD9.00 now.
AnnJoo-wb below 0.50 now. I think I will compile the waterfalls later.
My eyes turn red, most of the call-warrants and warrants in my list showing RED. Some with more than another 10% step-down. I m queue-ing for TM-CI and will accumulate it.
12.25 pm : KLCI lost almost 10points but many are higher that the intraday low registered in the morning. GPacket at 0.69, touched 0.675.
Welcoming SamChem to the playground.
HKSE : Giants with P/E less than 10 - 1171.hk, 0606.hk, 0175.hk, 1919.hk, 1138.hk, 1199.hk
4.00 pm : KLCI attracts bargain-buyers ... many green now!! Hai ya, I sold off my LionInd too early again. Hmm ...
5.15 pm : KLCI lost only merely 1 point +, while HSI lost 500+ points. CWP at 0.82 now.
10.00 pm : DOW up a little. Welcoming back GOME, up almost 70% today!!
10.30 pm : Tmr is a buying spree for me ... moving into warrants, thinking of 4/5 warrants with each 10k/20k units? TgOffs, AnnJoo, WCT, SPSetia and Sunway. How about Affin? Hmm ...
p/s : I will watch Transformer with my son(3.5 years old now) and this will be the first movie I m watching in 4 years? Wow. I don't believe in using money, fyi.
Monday, June 22, 2009
KLCI at 1050 level, and many expect it to move sideway or higher this week. I have no expectation ... if it moves higher and my babes run up, I will happily SELL them off. But, if KLCI retraces further, I will be glad to collect more.
Warrants : I have shown JL the top 20 of my warrants but these few are my fav - AnnJoo, SPSetia, Sunway, WCT, WaSeong and YTLPower. Yes, I do mention a lot about AnnJoo-wb as I do like it as a steel-play. Other than that, I do monitor these closely and traded them many of times. Yeap, I dont write it here as the gains/losses are 'small'. I used them to train myself trading and to test my hypotheses. Yes, it is TA.
Call-Warrants : AMMB, Commerz, Resorts, Genting, TM, Sime, IOICorp and BJToto. Oh yes, I bought AirAsia-ce weeks ago, but it is expiring soon ... so, I hv taken it out of my list.
Note : Warrants and especially call-warrants are NOT for those who know nothing about trading. Yes, the risk is very high if u dont know about it. Let me give some examples of my experiences.
AirAsia-ce : I bought at 0.135 and happily sold it off at 0.145 the next day. I know the AirAsia news will be temporary, so ... even holding it for another day will give me the unnecessary stress!! Hence, I m glad to load it off. Yes, it went higher but once I sold off with no intention to buy back, I won't look back. Once the news is over, AirAsia(the mommy) moved lower and lower each day. AirAsia -ce at 0.07 at the moment.
Now, from 0.14 to 0.07 .... if you are those BUY and HOLD, you could have lost 50% of your funds on it. Serious, I feel most of us SHOULD NOT touch call-warrants. There is some sense of gambling in it. But, if we know-how it could give us VERY good return.
9.10 am : LionInd still diving ... yes, I will accumulate it. GPacket reached my cut-loss point. Yes, will cut-off. Ouch.
9.45 am : KLCI diving ... rally over? Or just a mere correction so that we should be buying?
I m queue-ing for TM-ci at 0.10 and LionInd at 1.10. Yeah, I get a little more excited now seeing REDS ... I m The REDS supporter, mind you.
JL : Monitor the warrants I gave you last night. SPSetia, WCT, WaSeong, AnnJoo ... many more losing more than 10% now. Don't buy now or else buy in stages. Say RM5k for stage 1 ... move lower by another 15%, buy another RM5k ... and so on. If it is a market reversal ... then, look into 6-months to a year time frame.
1.15 pm : I saw the KLCI dived this morning ... and being 'sick', I m glad. LionInd not done at 1.10 but touched 1.14, moved back to 1.20 level. TM-ci is not done at 0.10 either. I believe many experienced traders gained this morning from the dive, and a V-shape recovery.
Many of the warrants in my list were expereincing a huge loss in the morning dive, SPSetia, WCT, WaSeong, AnnJoo and such were downed more than 10% but managed to regain grounds. We could not know what we are catching is a 'knife' or it will recovers, but ... when you are in FEAR ... do BUY. I saw KLCI losing almost 20points and I get so excited(sicko).
So, on Sat ... actually I wrote about SPSetia as the waterfall I like most at the moment ... (but I hv deleted the post - sorry). SPSetia-wb closed lower at 0.555 last Friday. It was from 0.82 last week, ok? So, why am I excited? It dived and ... I queued at 0.50, 0.48 and 0.45. It was done at 0.50(only 5000 units) and as it was shooting higher, I queued at 0.54. It was done!! It touched a intra-day low of 0.495 and at 0.545 now. The mommy SPSetia up 0.04 cents, one of the few green-counters(99 green, 534 red).
Is that few hundred bucks gain matter much? To me it is not(but at least it paid the father-day dinner I spent over the weekend! hehe). But to me, the most important thing to note is my trading hypothesis, my trading plans and my emotions involved. It trains my trading brain. I remember I hhv written before about 'trading mind'. Yes, it needs exercises and training. I will want to write more regarding this as it only make senses that we SHOULD do some practices, even if we are NOT using actual money.
HKSE : HSI up more than 2%, with many greens BUT CWP lowered to 0.92(touched 0.87). China Water strengthen to 1.95 now(from 1.80 last week). Sinopec at 5.84, recovered from 5.60 level. 0203.hk in red? <--- Noted. SGX : SingTel at 2.92. I m still monitoring Genting SP and GoldenAgri.
6.00 pm : KLCI at 1045.97. Oil below USD70, Gold at 925 level and DOW-future in reds now.
LionInd at 1.22, will need to try to clear it tmr. Stucked with GPacket and Petra and doing nothing much yet. I will stay sideline for a while, and will be glad to collect some warrants. Yes, I 'forgotten' that I only want to play with warrants if I m in KLSE, otherwise I prefer HKSE.
Warrants in focus : Wah Seong, Sunway, TgOffs, Affin, WCT, AnnJoo and SPSetia.
Call-warrants in focus : Resorts, Genting, Maybank, Bursa and Ammb.
JL : Any of these dive AGAIN tmr deserve to have a closer look. Buy into warrants, not call-warrants if the risk too high to take. Expect REDS tmr to BUY into a warrant that you like. As I mentioned, BUY in stages. Say ... 20k units initially.
10.45 pm : DOW losing 145 points and below 8400 level now. We might be seeing REDS again tmr morning. Be prepare.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
A call warrant is a leveraged financial instrument which derives its value from the value of an underlying security. A call warrant can provide exposure to the underlying security for a fraction of the underlying securities price.For a physical-settled call warrant, the warrant holder has the right, but not the obligation to buy the underlying security from the issuer at a predetermined price or Exercise Price at expiry or at anytime during the tenure of the call warrant.For a cash-settled call warrant, the warrant holder can exercise at expiry or anytime within the tenure of the warrant to receive a cash payment based on the positive difference between the underlying security price and Exercise Price of the call warrant, adjusted by the Exercise Ratio and any other incidental charges.
American - Gives the warrant holder the right to exercise at anytime before or on Expiry Date
European - Gives the warrant holder the right to exercise only on Expiry Date
The date on which the ability to exercise the call warrants expires.
Taken from CIMB portal.
5.50 pm : Happy Father's Day. Being father giving me sense of responsibilities. I m glad to be a father of my two lovely kids.
I was speaking about Warrants and Call-Warrants with JL last night. I m also a trader when I m free, so I do buy these highly leveraged financial in struments.
Basically, I will like to see myself as 'investors' ... so, FA is significantly important. Putting 80% of my money into stocks with good fundamentals or prospects,I feel 'safe'. But, it is OK to place 20% of my funds playing with these.
If you know-how, you have reduced substantially your RISK and manage to conquer your fears. Nothing could replace experiences, so being NEW to markets and a novice, I definitely have much more to learn.
Here, I will like to thank MANY who have guided me indirectly and rendering supports whenever needed.
Friday, June 19, 2009
BEIJING: Regulators on Friday lifted a nine-month ban on Chinese initial public stock offerings after markets rebounded in recent months from the plunge that prompted the moratorium.
A small drug maker, Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co., announced it will become the first IPO of 2009, debuting June 29 in Shenzhen, where the smaller of China's two exchanges is located.
"Now it is a good time for the regulator to lift the ban, since the benchmark has been up so much. The regulator seems to be eager to push this ahead," said Zhang Xiang, an analyst for Guodu Securities in Beijing.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has surged 57 percent since the start of the year, lifted by optimism over the government's multibillion-dollar stimulus spending.
It closed Thursday at 2,853.9, its highest since last July 28.
Guilin Sanjin said in an announcement through the Shenzhen exchange that it will issue up to 46 million new shares to raise funds for projects requiring 634 million yuan ($93 million) in total investment.
Regulators are likely to move gradually in allowing more IPOs to test the market's ability to absorb them, Zhang said.
Some investors worry that too many new shares flooding into the market will depress prices.
China halted IPOs last September after the Shanghai index tumbled 60 percent from its high the previous year.
At that point, 37 companies had received regulatory approval for IPOs.
On Friday, the news of more possible IPOs helped to lift the stock prices of Chinese brokerages in anticipation of more business.
At midday, Sinolink Securities Co. had risen by the daily limit of 10 percent while others also were up.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite index was up 0.3 percent in midday trading Friday at 2,863.62. - AP
Taken from : The Star
I was hoping for a dive last night so that I could get ready for shopping. LionInd still below 1.30, GPacket at 0.74 and AnnJoo-wb still below 0.60. Petra at 2.70 at the moment. So, nothing for me to do ... and my queues are too lower to catch any baits today.
Queues : AnnJoo-wb at 0.50, GPacket at 0.695, Petra at 2.50 and TM-CI at 0.10
RSI- Relative Strength Index : Taken from N.I.N.E's blog
BUY when it is “oversold” and sell when it is “overbought” – this is what most traders, investors and even some technical advisors would conclude when using relative strength index (RSI) in technical analysis. But is this the right approach when using the indicator?
RSI is one of the most used technical indicators but probably the most misunderstood.
Although the three main strengths of the RSI indicator are
(i) determining overbought/oversold levels,
(ii) discovering the positive or negative divergence against the price chart and
(iii) centerline crossover,
application on the first strength is normally used in a wrong manner!The first mistake is to strictly stick to one level each for overbought and oversold levels. Yes, the founder of RSI indicator J. Welles Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 as the overbought and oversold levels, respectively.
But this does not mean that it must be strictly adhered to.Are they the correct levels for analyzing a price chart with its RSI having moved beyond 90 on the upside or below 10 on the downside? On the flipside, how are we to analyze another price chart where its RSI never moved beyond the 70 level or below the 30 level?
Hence, there is a need for some flexibility in determining the overbought and oversold levels. It should depend very much on the range of the RSI indicator for a particular stock or index over a period of time. The levels for a stock may be 70/30 as recommended by Wilder but for another, it may be 80/20 or a different combination.
MARKET TALK: HSI +0.4%;Accumulate When Index Nears 17,000-ICEA
0229 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +0.4% at 17,842.40, on rebound, ending 4-session,5.9% losing streak, supported by modest gains in DJIA. "After the recent pullback, the downside room for the Hang Seng Index will be limited, in ourview," says ICEA. Tips index to bottom above 17,000-mark and recommends accumulating when HSI trading close to 17,000. Prefers China banks, China properties for sector strength, while aggressive investors could consider shipping stocks as they are oversold. PetroChina (0857.HK) +0.5% at HK$8.49 after CNY9.71 billion buy of western pipeline assets from parent. Index offearly high of 17,979.45, tad below key 18,000 level. Volume modest at HK$8.14billion. (SUT)
11.30 am : China Water climbing back to 1.90 now. I was monitoring it, it touched 1.78 days ago. Perhaps I did not reach a 'fearing' point where it will warrant me to BUY? I was queueing for it 1.80 last week when it was 1.90+(downed from 2.00+) ... and when it really reached 1.80 level, I was queueing at 1.75, lowering my queues each day. Perhaps I have fear in me ... afraid of catching it at 1.80 level and it dives further down? Hmm ... yes, RSI just an indicator and did not really give us the GREEN light(go ahead) to BUY/SELL a stock.
I still like China Water for its low PE, and huge prospect where China Gov recognises the 'clean water' problems in China. They are spending billions on this area.
Time to accumulate?
I was speaking with LL yesterday about INVESTING. Buying in 2009 this year could not be AT THE PEAK(but no one could tell you if we are at the bottom?). So, be invested.
China Cosco : It is reaching it support-level of HKD9.50(JL intelligently took profits at HKD12.00) and I will like to get it back below HKD9.50. As this is for investment, one could accumulate more at HKD8.50, then HKD7.50 ... and so on. Say, you place RM10k for each stage of buying. As the prices go lower, you could happily buy more units of it.
Say one likes LionInd ... one could accumulate at stages too. Focus on one or two good stocks. Say we want to place RM50k on LionInd ... BUY at RM1.25 today(let's say), then more of it at RM1.15(or RM1.35, whichever direction) ... and so on. Investors dont really look at markets, perhaps only once a week to make decision on the stock(s) they are holding on. NEVER use-up the whole capital at one-go. Focus and buy at stages, ok?
Don't worry about buying at the bottom, in fact THE bottom for many stocks were at NOV08 or MAC09. Just be sure that we have enough bullets to BUY more when ... say LionInd at 0.50? OR China Cosco at HKD4? Do that or cut loss early!! You decide.
5.20 pm : KLCI at 1059.50. LionInd done at 1.25. TM-CI done at 0.110. Other queues not done.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
China sells US bonds to 'show concern'
A decision by China to reduce its US Treasury holdings suggests concern about the US attitude towards its economic woes, Chinese economists were quoted as saying in state media Wednesday.
The remarks, coming after US data showed a modest decline in Chinese investments in US government bonds, were in contrast to an earlier statement in Beijing which had said the recent sell-off was a routine transaction.
"China is implying to the US, more or less, that it should adopt a more pragmatic and responsible attitude to maintain the stability of the dollar," He Maochun, a political scientist at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times.
According to US Treasury data issued Monday, Beijing owned 763.5 billion dollars in US securities in April, down from 767.9 billion dollars in March. It was the first month since June 2008 that Beijing failed to purchase more US T-bills.
Zhang Bin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's move showed a more cautious attitude. "It is unclear whether the reduction will continue because the amount is so small. But the cut signals caution of governments or institutions toward US Treasury bonds," Zhang told Xinhua news agency.
China's foreign ministry said Tuesday that its purchases of US Treasuries remained based on "security, liquidity and value preservation". For Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the Finance and Securities Research Institute of People's University, China may have reduced its holding of US Treasuries simply because it needed the money.
Zhao said the sell-off could have been in order to pay for its own economic stimulus package. "The reduction was a result of composite factors, such as the investment need and the market change," Zhao told Global Times.
Taken From : Yahoo SG
So, with WAR as a great threat(besides Swine Flu) ... any discussion on economic recoveries halted. The overly optimism regarding the so-called recoveries(green shoots with withering leaves?) is fast fading. We are singing the uncertain tunes, yet again. And many started to see this as THE turning point(they were saying about these for 3 months now!!). The reversal of the markets, that is.
KLCI, STI and HSI showing clear weakness and we are anticipating "corrections". Yes, stocks are no longer cheap. P/E of KLSE is at 18 ... and many stocks(especially those penny-stocks) are over-valued. Oh yes, I read somewhere ... pointing that the P/E values listed in THE STAR paper are OUTDATED, which I agreed. That is why I need to double-check those values IF i m going to stalk those babes. A low P/E value is favourable for investors BUT it does not show ACTUAL fundamentals of the company.
Linkin Park - "New Divide" <--- my ringing tone. hehe
I remembered black skies
The lightning all around me
I remembered each flash
As time began to blur
Like a startling sign
That fate had finally found me
And your voice was all I heard
That I get what I deserve
So give me reason
To prove me wrong
To wash this memory clean
Let the floods cross the distance in your eyes
Give me reason
To fill this hole
Connect the space between
Let it be enough to reach the truth that lies
Across this new divide
There was nothing in sight
But memories left abandoned
There was nowhere to hide
The ashes fell like snow
And the ground caved in
Between where we were standing
And your voice was all I heard
That I get what I deserve
So give me reason
To prove me wrong
To wash this memory clean
Let the floods cross the distance in your eyes
Across this new divideIn every loss
In every lie In every truth that you'd deny
And each regret
And each goodbye
Was a mistake to great to hide
And your voice was all I heard
That I get what I deserve
So give me reason
To prove me wrong
To wash this memory clean
Let the floods cross the distance in your eyes
Give me reason
To fill this hole
Connect the space between
Let it be enough to reach the truth that lies
Across this new divide
Across this new divide
Across this new divide
1.20 pm : KLCI lost 13 points in the morning trade. I was NOT monitoring as I m busy.Petra at RM2.70 level(B : RM3) ... yes, I will BUY more into it once it reaches my TP(target price). Averaging down is 'bad' for investments ... but I m a looong term investor, u see. So, to take a 10% loss is 'painful' ... hence, I m buying more into it!! Doesnt that sound familiar to all of us? None of us like to see the stock(s) we just bought moving lower each day, ya. But ... just don't get too emotional with stocks, they are not worth it. I know it is our MONEY getting 'stucked' there ... as I shared with LL over the lunch just now, BUY good counters, sit on it. Be glad to BUY more into when it price retraces. As I bought Petra at RM3, surely I will be glad to buy more at ... say, RM2.50? What IF it moves lower after that as KLCI revrses? Get STUCKED and be prepared to be a looong term investor!!
JL : Be ready to accumulate more when our oil-stocks retraces. Yes, we need to hold on to our beliefs that OIL stocks will benefit once global economies recover(if ever?). That certainly will take longer than most expected. I m seeing it into end of NEXT year. INVESTORS should be glad to accumulate MORE of good 'cheap' counter stocks. At the moment, most stocks are NOT cheap .... so, this correction/pullback giving INVESTORS opportunities to accumulate more of their holdings. Sinopec too ...
Steel babes : LionInd below 1.30 now. AnnJoo-wb at 0.57 level.
3.10 pm : At night, I will have a lots of work to do .... as many starts to form WATERFALLS. Yes, I will only be busy when markets moving south. Hmm ... I m a little 'sick'. I told my friend, LL that I get excited when markets diving(tho I m caught too. OUCH!).
I cleared CPNE yesterday at 0.60. It was at 0.70+ last week. Hmm ...
At the moment, I m still holding to SingTel, CWP, Petra and GPacket. Through JL, we bought SinoPec and Kencana. Next buying will be into Gold or blue-gold.
5.05 pm : Interesting ... I was away(to clear off my credit-card debts!!). Now, we need to see that KLCI 1054.41.
Welcoming KNM, Jaks, Ranhill, Zelan and many more back to penny-stock world.
I do have a lots of work to do ... but I will procrastinate. Don't worry, we have tmr ... hoping DOW dives another 200-300 points and we will see REDS all over. Then, weekend will be the day to scan through good counters charts, to discuss with JL on what will our next buying. Yeah, you can see I am EXCITED again. Hehe ... sorry for being 'sick'. I m just trying to be a 'contrarian'.
Homework for JL : 7.10 pm : I have these in my mind that I will do tonight - Listing out those stocks which have retraced 20% or more in these few days. Create a new stalk list - analyse them according to sectors, volumes and prices. That is the first stage I m going to do tonight. Will add in more tmr IF they retrace further(GOOD!!).
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
LMF : I like this HK-rap group tho it is a little vulgurous? haha. I WAS, but I m no longer one. I like this song, you may find the lyric in my previous post in my personal blog. I hv collection of their songs!! Too bad, they dis-banded.
LMF = Lazy Mutha F*cker. WTF = What The F*ck (not World Trade Federation?)
Errr ... I m NOT interested with the political post in the clip. So, ISA ... jangan cari saya la, datuk.
DOW slipped another 100+points. HSI might be losing for third straight days and making it more attractive to move in. Some begin to say that the rally is OVER. Crude Oil price back to USD70 level. So, seriously ... do you think the rally is over? This is a very important question-mark as what WE believe will affect how we going to 'play' at the moment.
SELF-DENIAL : A curse in many investors
When markets retrace(corrections or pull-backs), many who have bought earlier want to be out. Some will clear hastily while some will console themselves that they are 'loooong term investors'. Self-denial will not do us any good. Stocks DO NOT listen to us. We need to be logical, which I have pointed out many of times : In markets, we DO NOT see logics. Gamblers are not-so-logical people. They will think of all-or-nothing. Some will even resort to praying. Seriously ... I have only 1.5 years market experience, yet I could share with many the emotions we have been going through(especially the HUGE bear in 2008). The anxiety seeing our stock prices tanking and we are dumb-founded. We are practically lost ... and it won't help IF you are such a young & naive investor.
For example, say if you bought Genting at RM8-level and hold on dearly to it(especially the broker reports telling us that the target price is RM12 + higher dividends with huge plans in Singapore and Macau etc etc), and it moved lower each day ... how do you feel? Helpless? Cut-loss has NEVER been in your vocabulary. You have exhausted your ammunitions or too 'scared' to BUY more. Yes, you don't even have a plan BEFORE buying it at RM8. So, you will console yourself(SELF-DENIAL) that this is a good fundamental counter and you are a loooong term investor. Inside you, you have to endure the PAINS ... and you make sure that no one know that you bought it at THAT price.
Say Genting lowered to RM5 with no bottom seen, will you continue to HOLD on to it? Too late to cut-loss, right? Or you will be very adamant to stay put and maintain that you are a looong term investor? Hmm ... it is good to be a long term investor, tho. BUT ... long term investors will BUY in stages at the BOTTOM(or near bottom) ... and will HOLD till the stocks over-valued. That is my point ... why is it so difficult to ADMIT that we are wrong in our decisions ... and move on?
There are too many ILLOGICAL things investors do ... and we all(those in markets will know) experience it. It takes courage to ADMIT we are wrong, and continue to learn to see what our mistakes are so that we could improve ourselves. Is that the LOGICAL approaches in lives? Unfortunately, most of us losing money in markets .... because we do not act logical(emotion rules) when it comes to MONEY. And we rather stay DENIAL, in the name of being 'CORRECT'.
Genting went all the way down to RM3.10 level(if you bought at RM8 and still holding to it, it is VERY ILLOGICAL not to buy at RM3, right?) ... at RM6 now. Will it ever reach RM8, no one could tell but I do know one thing .... your money STUCKED inside KLSE for a year now(and still not breakeven yet!!), and you could not play on the rebounds/rally. In this case, putting your money in the banks for the pathetic interest rate will be better-off, right?
That is also one of the many WHYs the statistics show 80% of those in KLSE losing money!! And I won't blame it if my family(in KL) freaking nervous hearing that I m involved in KLSE-casino .... after all, there is 80% chances that I lose money, right? LOGICAL?
I guess I m speaking of my OWN experiences. So, don't be upset with me if you are one of the 80%. We all learn from each other .... some will take a longer time than others, it is STILL OK if you are slow but learning. BUT, sad to point to ... many more will never learn. WHY? Because they deny to themselves that they need to learn. Amazing logic, right? That is why we called KLSE as our largest legalised casino. Many big-money speculators are manipulating and happily gain hugely from greedy retail-investors. Realising that, do you STILL want to stay DENIAL? Be logical, please.
10.15 am : GPacket shown weakness, perhaps I could not clear today. Petra at 2.81 level ... so, do nothing yet while look into China Water, at 1.80 level now. AirAsia moving up, technical rebound.
12.20 pm : KLCI losing another 5 points and GPacket at 0.745. Oh Boy, should I cut-loss or buy more? Wait ... I m a looong term investor, right? At times, we want to profit in short term BUT when we were caught inside the KLSE-hole, we 'turned' into a looong term investor!! We feel trap, so we switch to self-denial mode to ease the 'pain', if any.
2.30 pm : Finally, I m free to sit down ... 1171.hk still moving lower. PE less than 10, energy play. If can hold for 6 months or so, this is one beauty ... certain better value than Genting? Hmm ... that is not a fair comparison as both in diffrent business-sector!!
4.50 pm : If you see the screen now, and the top 20 stocks actively traded stocks are all penny stocks except MRCB and Axiata. And from them, 7 are from SECOND BOARD. Then, you look at 8338 ... it shot-up 40% today!! A closer look at the queues and the transactions, TELL ME that it is NOT manipulated? Or this must be a gunko-counter ... everyone must have?!
Bursa have questioned a few(including SAAG recently) ... and do you think BURSA is really doing their job? Yawn ... Bursa, what can you do? KLSE is becoming a casino, and BIG PLAYERS are happily selling to each other, pushing up the prices!!
Check out 8338-wb ... WOW!! 130% increment in ONE DAY. This is a stock I MUST HAVE. BUY at any price tmr. Even NgiuKee up 30+%. *clap-clap*.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
DOW down 180 points .. what do we expect KLCI or HSI doing? Down, right? Be prepare to BUY more if u think this correction is a temporary thing and markets will continue its 3-year bull-run. I m ot so optimistic ... in fact, each time when I bought "something", I want out as soon as there are gains(even it is 'small'). It's a typical kiasu&kiasi character!!
AirAsia-ce : I m definitely glad I sold this one off at 0.145(bought 0.135 the day before) as it closed at 0.09 yesterday!! Playing with warrants could be very risky.
AirAsia : I m still stalking on this one since I sold it at 1.35. Phew. It is difficult to find a good waterfall and this one look pretty nice to me. It closed at 1.17 yesterday ... be patient and wait. Why am I liking AirAsia? Errr ... perhaps I just bought AirAsia ticket to go back to KL? Hmm ... if that is not a valid reason, I don't know what-else!! Hehe
巫啟賢 - 遺忘過去
7.45 am : Today I will be too busy till 3.30 pm. So, I will queue to clear GPacket and sell some of my Petra. AnnJoo-wb deserve my attention but I guess steel-rally is over. Also will be queue-ing for China Water at HKD1.75(most probably won't get unless it dives!!).
10.05 am : Taking a short break - KLCI losing 15 points now. Waiting ...
12.40 pm : Petra drops to 2.77 level. Is the oil-rally over? KNM at 0.935 now. I was too busy just now. HSI losing 550+ points now, with almost all in my stalk list are in RED. Sinopec at 5.65 level ... so, I will sit around and hold on to Petra and Sinopec for a while, and seeing if oil-rally is really over? Markets going for the strong pull-back? Will move in to BUY more of Petra and Sinopec at my next support level.
But, I will like to clear GPacket, to keep my capital ... as I m seeing higher interests in HKSE. China Water at 2.80+ level now. The auto-stocks moving lower too. Just be patient ... and be daring enough to take the plunge once you are in deepest fear? Easier said than done. But, I will do just that ... at the moment, I dont feel the greatest of fear, just yet.
6.05 pm : Terrible ... KLCI lost 17 points. Petra at 2.77 and I couldnt clear my GPacket. Wait and see ... and I like what I m seeing in HKSE, sea of reds.
10.30 pm : Oil Crude price up to USD72 again ... will that help the O&G counters?
Please look into AirAsia chart ... it is a beauty. BUYING soon, clear GPacket for this one.