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Sunday, May 31, 2009

Dr. Marc Faber



李克勤 深深深



Sunday is a good day to take a break from all the data and news. But, I indulged in a book "Buffett vs Soros" ... a very good book indeed for all investors. Yeah, it is refreshing to read such inspirational books from world's greatest investors. I discovered that I m more of "Soros" rather than Buffett. Of coz I still need years to learn even 1% of these greats.

We all have our own personal goals in our investments but the bottom line is to increase our initial capitals. NONE of us(I believe) want to end up losing our capitals ... but we all need to recognise the RISK. Our knowledge and experience could(and should) help us to make a wiser investment in near future.

Looking into : TM, MAS, GPacket, YTL and LionInd.

TEH

Saturday, May 30, 2009


DOW up almost another 100 points with crude oil at USD66 and gold at 980!! Silver up above 15 now. USD index below 80 now ... how do we interpret these numbers?

I m reminded that I m added one year old today, but to me ... it is a public holiday in Sabah(one of the reasons I m in Sabah? Haha). I might take a short break today from all my readings and enjoy with my family.

Checking on TM charts ... I wonder what is going-on there. Should I start collecting at this level?

Looking at GPacket's chart ... it is attractive to me. It is difficult to find a good waterfall these days.

Silver : SLV(ETF).

TEH

Friday, May 29, 2009

DOW not moving much but there is a huge RALLY for GOLD-related stocks now as GOLD at 978 now!! Well, we BUY before rally is in ... that explained why I was holding ZhoaJin and LingBao last month but there is not much movements then. Today and next week onwards we will be seeing gold-related stocks will continue to rally as USD index is going south.

Yes, I do listen to Jim Roger ... Sri Lanka? Hmm ... how to invest there, Jim? But he mentioned SILVER. Yes, I will be doing some homework on SILVER and hope to get a hold into this white-gold.

Paramount Gold & Silver(code : PZG.A) jumped up 10% or more now. Yes, I dont think so it is late to jump into silver-wagon. US Gold(code : UXG.A)

Agriculture : A sector he is favouring too. Will BUY into it for keeping. 0682.hk or 0606.hk.

Welcoming GM to the penny-stock world. AIG been there too.

0909.hk up 29% today!! Hmm ... it is in my China-auto stalk list.

TEH
DOW up about 100 points. I m busy in the morning, as I went for weekly marketing (wet market).

Looking into AirAsia.

10.00 am : KLCI in RED? Bought some AirAsia for keeping .... done as it moved down!!

10.15 am : With so many REDS around, time to BUY? GPacket at 0.70 now ... interesting moves. Still stalking ...

CWP opens higher at 0.80 but retracing back to 0.78 level. No buying today, waiiting for signals from ... my cousin in Pluto? Hmm ... this stock is becoming a punter-haven. Up and down very fast, and I don't think so my old heart could take the pounding?

I prefer something like SingTel ... more predictable. Buying at 2.80 level to KEEP ... and it gracefully moving higher in daily basis. Of coz we know what SingTel's busineses are, right? It is at 2.94 level today ... and I will only look to SELL when it SUDDENLY jumps!!

Finally I read something MAKE SENSE from our education ministry : ONLY TEN SUBJECTS for SPM. This is looooong over-due(like the correction in KLSE? Haha) ... and many not-so-knowledegable-cum-kiasu-cum-kiasi parents were wanting their kids to take 14As if possible!! The crazy rush was from the weakness in our un-educated education ministers officers(they are POLITICIANS with their hidden political agenda ... u think they care how u people feel about education ar? Bodoh la ... kita cari makan saja. Makan, they did.)

Parent 1 : How many A's your daughter scored ar?

Parent 2: Hai ya ... that lazy girl arr ... I told her to take 14 subjects, she took 12 only. So, only get 12 A's la. Luckily she got all A1 la, otherwise I don't know where to put my face leh.

Parent 1 : Wah .... 12 A1 arr. Next year my boy taking SPM. I must ask him to take 15 subjects la. Currently he is also planning to take only 12 subjects. What you think arr?

Parent 2 : Ya loh ... ya loh ... must leh. Otherwise hor, u will 'drop your spec' leh. Regret like me now too late liao.

Parent 3 : Excuse me ladies ... u didnt read the paper ar? Our gov said next year onwards students can only take max 10 subjects leh.

Parent 1 : WHAT!! Stupid goverment hor ... now my son could not beat MRS XYZ of 12A's liao. Hai yo ...

Parent 2 : Hehe ... don't worry, MRS ABC. Ask him to tak piano test, ballet test, swimming test and may be SIDC test also la. That add up also 14 subjects ma. Haha

Parent 1 : %&##*&^%

Parent 3 : My son and daughter doing very well now tho they only took 8 subjects and obtained only 3-5 A's. I teach them 'financial prudency' at home and they learnt 'investment' from their dad. They do not need to get all the A's to get employed but they are employing others to manage a wealth-management company at the moment. I m so proud of them.

Parent 1 and Parent 2 are very puzzled. How on earth could a parent taking it so cool that their kids not getting ALL A's? You mean the subjects in our school will not teach them financial-survival in REAL lives? But ... but ... they are taking Economy, Accounting, Business Studies, Mathematics, Additional Mathematics ... surely they know how to count $$$ la.

Yeah, right. You scored A in your MORAL subject doesnt mean you are morally correct, ok? Do I need to give more examples WHY our education system is irrelevant when it comes to personal FINANCIAL? I was never taught to be financial-savvy, ok?

12.25 pm : Next week is a school holiday but not for our college. Yes, I always view our education system as deterioting, especially these days. Gone were the days when we studied for KNOWLEGDE, and we do'nt highly emphasise in examination RESULTS as we realised that our kids need MORE than the string of A's to be "successful". The term successful has been loosely used. To most of us, it means MONEY and POWER. If u could become our EDUCATION minister, you are considered as VERY successful?

I m too hungry now, that my stupid-brain can't function well. Hehe

2.25 pm : KLCI at 1044, climbed back to green after a lower opening in the morning. I bought AirAsia this morning(done for 1.26 but not 1.23-1.25). It is at 1.30 ... and will only clear it when the momentum ceases. There is a long queue to clear at 1.30 and I don't think so it could pass this point today? We shall see ...

I saw KNM making moves this morning too. It is fuel by the hike in crude oil prices? Or I read some positive news about KNM over the Bloomberg yesterday(or was it two days ago?).

Macau's casinos run into bad luck
29 May 2009 : Taken from China Economic Review

For most of the past five years, the Chinese gambling mecca of Macau seemed a sure bet. The first American company to enter the market was Las Vegas Sands, which opened the Sands Macau casino in 2004 — and earned back its $285 million investment in only a year. No more. Recession and the global credit crisis and the attitude of the Chines government have stopped the flow.

The latest hard-luck story: MGM Mirage. This week, the Las Vegas-based company disclosed that New Jersey gaming industry regulators object to its Macau joint venture partner, raising the possibility that MGM Mirage could pull out of the market. MGM Mirage opened the $1.25 billion MGM Grand Macau hotel and casino in 2007 in partnership with Pansy Ho, daughter of tycoon Stanley Ho, who held a monopoly on gaming in Macau for four decades and continues to operate casinos in the city. (He once served the writer white wine in the Hong Kong Hilton while he, Stanley Ho, was dressed as a French artisto before the Revolution. The wig did not fit well.)In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, MGM Mirage said that the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement had deemed Pansy Ho an 'unsuitable' partner after a four-year investigation.

While MGM Mirage has been hit by a regulatory bombshell, other Macau casino operators are suffering financial fallout in a market turned cold by recession and an unexpected shift in Chinese policy. The Sands, seen on the right, has not been completed. It may never happen.Last year, Chinese authorities began restricting the number of citizens who were allowed to enter Macau. Melco Crown Entertainment, a Nasdaq-listed joint venture between Laurence Ho (Pansy Ho's brother) and Australian billionaire James Packer, recently reported it lost $35.3 million in the first quarter, compared with a $43.2 million profit in the same period in 2008. It was the fourth straight quarterly loss for the company, which operates Macau's Altira hotel and casino.

Time Online said the Macau drought could get worse before it gets better. But predicting the future of Macau's gambling industry is a lot like rolling dice.

2.40 pm : JL's China Cosco(code 1919) jumped higher to 10.25 today(bought 7.68). And my SingTel at SGD3.00 now. Hmm ... is it ripe?

4.00 pm : Wow ... the BULL is back. Give way ... KLCI up 17points now, lead by Sime and Tenaga.

4.40 pm : Cosco at 10.60 and SingTel at 3.00. AirAsia touched 1.31, at 1.30 level now. CWP at 0.80 ... getting back in on Monday?

I was not monitoring KLSE and missed KNM and Sime. I was only focused to queue for AirAsia this morning(mommy and its baby too) and as it moved down, my queues done.

Gold at 974 and crude oil at 65. Interesting ... gold will be reaching 1000 level again?

Please CHECK the last one hour trades in KLSE - you will be shocked. At one point, it is being pushed up 17 points .... but KLCI closed only 2points higher!! The sharp drops in many 'big-chips' are certainly being "played". Of coz, BURSA could not have any proof of manipulations? Hmm ... for example, check on Commerz or IOICorp. See the sharp knives coming?

Tell me ... who is THROWING away Maybank at RM5.05? Thousands of lots!!

Wow ... check GAMUDA ... someone sold it about 2,000,000 units at 2.52 in the last trade!!

BURSA ... I think they will deny any manipulation going on in KLSE.

TEH

Thursday, May 28, 2009

I heard from my tenant that Barca won 2 - 0. I m indifferent as I only watch Liverpool's game. Weird ... I m only attached(and focused) to THE REDS. That was since 1981 ... I won't even watch the whole world cup if England not playing!! Of coz could still remember that England even failed to qualify for The Euro?

Football season is over for me since the night MU clinched the EPL. I will hv more time to concentrate in my research. I hope I could find some gems in my green stocks. But, I still a huge THE REDS supporter, nevertheless.

DOW at 8300 level ... and HSI close today. I will not be shopping today. I need to do more homework on my energy stocks.

US : HTM and JASO jumped up more than 20% since last week. I was watching them move swiftly higher ... wish I hv more funds but I hv to wait.

Giants that could have doubled your money : HSBC and RioTinto. I was stalking RioTinto(RIO.AX) at AUD30+ level to AUD60 plus. And on top of that, AUD was from 2.30 ... up to 2.70 now(vs MYR). Also ... the not-s0-right rights issues by HSBC which saw its stock price plummeted to HKD30+ ... and standing at HKD60 plus now. Well, as you could see why I m pointing out these TWO particular stocks ... it doubled your money!! Both are giants in their own sectors and traded in different stock-exchange.

Adam Khoo : It is not risky IF you know how.

Placing your money in HSBC fixed-deposit will NOT double your money in 3 months, ok? Instead of putting one's money in HSBC's FD accounts(or any bank, as a matter of fact) for 10years, it will still NOT double your money!! Simple Math ... So, what should one's do? I could easily advise a person without knowledge about markets to BUY a HSBC stock(HKSE or LSE) now and SELL it once it double your capital?? I dont know when it will double your money ... but it will. 1 year? 3 years? 10 years? The return will DEFINITELY better than your pathetic FD, ok? This SIMPLE common-sense is NOT simple. Most people around me still NOT INVESTED. To some, buying Unit Trust is called INVESTMENT. We might still see someone piling up cash under the mattress? Hmm .... finally, I understood how some could get so rich from INVESTING in the right vehicles at the right time.

10.50 am : I m not looking into markets. SingTel still at 2.90 level, and KLSE .. I saw REDS all over? Hmm ... I m going to discipline myself NOT to move in this time. I need to focus in my HKSE's stocks. So, no trading for few days till some corrections on the green-stocks and move in again. In the mean time, enjoy my readings ...

1.45 pm : Well 'superman', MANY around me are like what I WAS 3 years ago, with little knowledge about MONEY. Seriously, I m glad I was awaken and taking the bold steps(all by myself!!) to get myself some KNOWLEDGE about finances and investments.

I have written about my first step --- to live life as frugal as possible. Then, use the extra money to buy some investment books ... read in daily basis, look into biz-news and also watch ONLY biz-shows!! Basically, I 'lost' my normal usual go lucky 'life' but that is temporary, I believe.

First STEP : GET yourself educated about MONEY. That is even BEFORE you think of getting into equity markets? I think Malaysian EDUCATION system failed badly here. We do not mould an independent individual with STRONG understanding the needs of EDUCATION. We paid so much of MONEY and YEARS in our so-called paper-qualification education to enable ourselves to be EMPLOYED? Wow ... we still have these fresh choosy graduates UN-EMPLOYED. Of coz our kind government will subsidise or even sponsor them, the PRIVILIGED ones.

Teach me ... and show me ... HOW many of my 'bright' students will end up understanding about their own personal finances?

4.oo pm : SingTel at 2.90.

The Myth Endless Love Song - Jackie Chan



I love Jacky Chan's movie ... hehe


MARKET TALK:PetroChina's SPC Stake Buy May Pressure Sinopec-CS

0350 GMT [Dow Jones] PetroChina's (0857.HK) purchase of 45% stake in SPC(S99.SG) could be a harbinger of more competitive pressure for Sinopec(0386.HK), Credit Suisse says. Notes PetroChina's market share in southernChina historically weak; "Sinopec's marketing business is seen as a source of value, and if indeed PetroChina decides to increase competitive pressure inmarkets where it is traditionally weaker, it could mean margin pressure forSinopec. For PetroChina, increased competition would be a longer term positive as increased market share would reduce per-unit fixed costs." Notes also, Cnooc(0883.HK) traditionally held monopoly in offshore China production; PetroChinagetting SPC's 100% stake in South China Sea exploration block could test mainland's offshore regulations. Keeps Underweight on China oil sector on viewall three plays running ahead of oil price fundamentals

11 pm : Gold at 960 level and crude oil at 65 now. USD is weakening, inflation inevitable? Marc Faber said US will be become Zimbabwe. By then, we need to bring weighing machine wherever we go ... if u r holding to USD, that is.


TEH

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

The Demise of the Dollar: "Safe Haven" No More

France's former President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing once dubbed the U.S. dollar's position in global financial markets as an "exorbitant privilege." In many ways, last year's global financial crisis confirmed the U.S. dollar's special status. When global financial markets were on the verge of economic collapse in September, investors scrambled for the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar index soared from 71 to 89. But since peaking on March 4, the dollar index has fallen 11%. Ironically, good news about the economy, rallying equities and reduced volatility has prompted investors to sell their dollar assets in favor of assets denominated in other currencies. Emerging market and commodity-linked currencies have soared, with the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real and the South African rand each up at least 15% against the Greenback over the past two months.

But the U.S. dollar's current bout of weakness is about more than just a return for risk appetite. Global financial markets are getting increasingly edgy about the Obama administration's exorbitant spending plans. Standard & Poor's threat last week to downgrade the United Kingdom's coveted AAA rating only highlighted the risk to the United States. The White House recently raised its estimate for the deficit this year to a record $1.84 trillion -- about 13% of U.S. GDP. Investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S. government will have to sell a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the current fiscal year. "Bond King" Bill Gross of Pimco has said that the markets are beginning to "anticipate the possibility" of a U.S. credit rating cut. And as Mohamed El-Erian, Gross' colleague at Pimco noted, "it's not an issue of whether the rating changes now... It's whether the markets start pricing in some change." Others like Marc Faber are less wont to mince their words. "The U.S. government for sure will go bust. That I guarantee you. Not tomorrow, but it will go bust."

The Demise of the Dollar: China's Big Problem

As the holder of over a quarter of U.S. debt held by foreigners, China is growing increasingly fearful of a U.S. dollar collapse. But China is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, China has little choice but to keep pouring the bulk of its growing reserves into the U.S. Treasuries. After all, the U.S. Treasury market remains the only market big and liquid enough to support China's huge purchases. On the other, if China shifts out of U.S. dollars in a significant way, the value of China's existing reserves could collapse. As a Nixon administration official once famously quipped: "The dollar may be our currency but it's your problem."

China's government has given no indication that it intends to reduce future purchases of U.S. Treasuries. In March alone, China's direct holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rose $23.7 billion to a record of $768 billion. At the same time, China is already altering its investment strategy in response to the U.S. dollar's expected decline. China increasingly is buying short-dated U.S. Treasuries over longer maturities, anticipating that the United States will have to raise interest rates in the medium term to combat rising inflation.

Ever the long-term thinker, China is also quietly making preparations for a post U.S. dollar era. The head of China's central bank has recently said that he hopes to see the U.S. dollar replaced as the main global reserve currency. China has set up a series of swap arrangements with other central banks, including Argentina, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Belarus, through which it will make its currency available to the other countries if they run out of foreign exchange. China and Brazil have begun talks on a scheme for bilateral trade to be settled in the renminbi and the real, rather than the U.S. dollar.

The Demise of the Dollar: Something's Gotta Give

In the past, I have been less of a bear on the U.S. dollar than many others. For all of its ostensible profligacy under the Bush administration, the United States could have trundled along at the $400 billion a year deficit level for many years. But the Obama administration's exorbitant efforts to "never waste a good crisis" as an excuse to re-shape American society in its own collectivist vision is a game changer. Obama's spending plans are simply off the charts. Even if China has no choice but to recycle the bulk of its reserves into U.S Treasuries, the sheer size of the Obama administration's expected deficit is mind numbing. Consider that the projected U.S. deficit this year alone already matches that of all of China's reserves.

So where is the money to fund Obama's vision going to come from? The answer is simple: the Fed has to print it. But buying Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities or corporate bonds to keep yields low is a mug's game. Expecting the Fed to beat the bond market is much like fighting gravity. Yes, you can overcome gravity's effects over the short term through an extraordinary and concentrated effort. But Mother Nature will prevail in the long run. The Fed pumping money into the financial system will inevitably cause both inflationary expectations and yields to rise. With last week's rout in U.S. Treasuries -- the biggest since June 2008 -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was prompted to tell Congress that his "basic obligation" was to put in place policies that keep confidence "in our currency, (and)... a strong dollar." You have to wonder whether Geithner himself believes his own cant. The fact that rates on U.S. Treasuries are rising during a time of global economic contraction signals that the bond market thinks that Obama's spending plans are unsustainable. And sadly, it also signals the demise of the dollar.

By Nicholas Vardy
MARKET TALK: U.S. Stocks Surge On Strong Confidence Data

2159 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks surged as strong consumer confidence data lifted demand; financials paced gains with JPMorgan Chase +6.2%, AmericanExpress +5%. Home builders were particularly strong, with D.R. Horton +5.1%,while consumer stocks like Tiffany rose 6.3%, Host Hotels & Resorts gained9.9%. "There is a positive correlation between consumer confidence and marketconfidence," says Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist for HartfordFinancial Services. Apple led gains in technology sector, +6.8% as MorganStanley boosted rating on company to overweight, saying iPhone "is feedingearnings growth that the market is missing." Dow up 2.4%, Nasdaq up 3.5%,philly semicons +3.7%. (SHN)

DOW up almost 200 points ... will that help to spur KLSE and HKSE? How about SGX too? KLSE will be uncertain then since we have negative GDP news to digest. Up or Down? Ride it on ...

2.10 pm : HSI up 800 points!! WOW ... but CWP moving lower and I sold it at 0.83(intraday 0.79-0.89), yesterday's closing price. It closed for lunch at 0.81. Will I buy it back? I dont know, unless it moves lower, otherwise ... today is too green to buy. [JL to note]

SingTel at SGD2.86(bought 2.80) but the great news in SGX is Genting SP(code : G13.SI) dropping to 0.72. I dont really know why too ... a quick check, I saw Resorts and Genting are retracing today too. Profit-taking after days of surge? May be ...

4.55 pm : HSI up almost to 900 points, breaching 18,000 level. WOW. CWP retraces t0 0.78 after I sold it at 0.83. I touched a high at 0.89 in the morning.

SingTel up too ... at SGD2.90 now. Hmm ...

TEH

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Can markets CONTINUE to rally ... and we are seeing 1100 for KLCI soon? This rally is very freaky to me ... I admit I m afraid to move in, and kinda missed the boat(for this rally). Seriously, I was thinking about it. May be the markets want everyone to BELIEVE that we were at the bottom ... and it is no harm to BUY any stock at the moment to hold for 'longer term'. Unless they could really hold THAT long, otherwise I dont see reasons to BUY. Some stocks have appreciated 200-300% in their prices since March. Talking about doubling your money in THREE YEARS? We are seeing that in THREE MONTHS!! Oh ya, those in FD could double their money(please minus off the inflation, ya) in THIRTY YEARS!! Err ... I m exaggarating, oopsss.

黄昏 <--- a very nice song.

guo wan zheng ge xia tian
you shang bing mei you hao yi xie
kai che xing shi zai gong lu wu ji wu bian
you li kai zi ji de gan jue
chang bu wan yi shou ge
pi juan hai sheng xia hei yan quan
gan qing de shi jie shang hai zai suo nan mian
huang hun zai mei zhong yao hei ye
yi ran ji de cong ni kou zhong shuo chu zai xian jian jue ru tie
hun an zhong you zhong lie ri zhuo shen de cuo jue huang hun de di ping xian
hua chu yi ju li bie
ai qing jin ru yong ye
yi ran ji de cong ni yan zhong hua luo de lei shang xin yu jue
hun luan zhong you zhong re lei shao shang de cuo jue
huang hun de di ping xian
ge duan xing fu xi yue
xiang ai yi jing huan mie

Anything move up(fast and furious) will drop sharply too. The overdue correction(we seen that for 3 days recently?) will be sharp ... and if we believe KLCI will be moving higher, then BUY during the correction. I don't have funds to have fun at the moment. All in equities(CWP, CPNE, SingTel and AnnJoo-wb). So, it is like 92 : 8 = stocks : cash. Of coz I m anxious as I m overly exposed. So, I need to SELL half to take profits.

JL : Yet to hear from you. I m clearing CWP and then will trade other counters. Noted.

请跟我来 --- yeah, I watch this movie during my secondary education. This is a nice song, but DO NOT follow me, k? Don't buy what I m buying, I mean.



Today I will be watching ... and still stalking GPacket as it is moving lower. Smartbiz(a KLSE blogger) sent me an e-mail, looking into Jaks and HiapTek. Thanks, man. I no longer do homeworks on KLSE's stocks ... so, I m not really aware of the going-ons.

I was reading into China's AUTO industry and looking into some GREAT opportunities there. Imagining GM going to fold their carpets, China auto companies(the stronger ones) will start to monopolise their own domestic market ... and regional markets too. We might be seeing more China's cars park beside our Perodua, ok? VW still a major player in China. Toyota too, of coz.

Funny, the Chinese in China do NOT trust their own-made-car!! It is like we Malaysian do not trust Proton or Perodua car ... and we will prefer Hyundai, Toyota and such. Will we be seeing TATA on our roads soon? That is a cute car!! Haha

10.15 am : CWP shooting the sky ... at 0.80 level now. Wow ... and I m still holding? Wait till RSI above 90 to clear. Hmm ...

Queuing to clear CPNE at 0.64. It touched 0.63 so far. Hmm ...

CWP at 0.80 (P/E reaching 30, RSI at 85 level)

11.10 am : CWP surging ahead to be at 0.85 now. Hmm .. interesting moves. There is a trade at HKD0.80 for HKD8m. Wow. At 0.85, the investors making unrealised profit of half a million in 1 hour? Interesting if you have such a huge capital!!

12.30 pm : I m hungry ... lunch time.

MARKET TALK: HK New Energy Stocks On Tear; Peak Hard To Call

0317 GMT [Dow Jones] HK new energy stocks showing no signs of fatigue, withSolargiga (0757.HK), China WindPower (0182.HK), Xinyi Glass (0868.HK) allhitting fresh year-to-date highs. Most of these stocks now more than double vsYTD lows, but hard to call peak, as sector punted higher on renewable energyconcepts, outrunning fundaments; shares expensive if based on conventionalvaluation metrics such as P/E. Solargiga +7.2% at HK$3.11, now +117% over past2 months; China WindPower +12.0% at 84 HK cents, +180% over past 2 months.Instead of trying to guess peaks, likely more sensible for investors togradually raise stop-gain levels to maximize profit amid red-hot sector punt.Xinyi +9.1% at HK$6.71, China Everbright International (0257.HK) +3.7% atHK$2.54; these two's businesses have more track record, but shares now tradingat 16.0X, 23.4X historic P/Es.

Yesterday I was thinking of clearing CWP at 0.80 but refused to queue. I have just learnt a 'lesson' last week when I cleared my CWP at 0.60(bought 0.49 then) but it shot up to 0.70 level the next day!! Aggrrhh ... when it retraces back, I was queuing at 0.63, but couldnt get it. Then I up-ed it to 0.65 the next day and it touched 0.62!! Arrrghhh ... the agony of a trader? hmm ... so, I was re-calling my short experience with it and to HOLD for another day. It is at 0.85 now ... clearing at 0.90? Hmm ....

To LL and Gary :

1.30 pm : For a beginner to be in HKSE, I will suggest a blue-chip. Simple logic ... we are unsure about the whole environments, and how it works. With years of experience in KLSE, that doesnt guarantee us that we know how to trade HKSE? Seriously, I was very wrong to apply what works in KLSE into HKSE!! Besides, trading HKSE the fees are much higher than buying in KLSE.

If you think oil prices will be moving higher(at USD60 level now), then buy into some STRONG fundamental stocks such as CNOOC, Sinopec, PetroChina and such. These are giants in China. No, it will not go bankrupt(chances that KNM will are so so much higher!!). Since we are an INVESTOR, keeping these stocks will almost definite to benefit us greatly once the economy recovers!!

This is a initial first step for a beginner ... into foreign land. Do some homework, buy those with PE below 10, cashflow positive and all those positive criteria you may want to place. That is FA. To me, FA comes first ... then, technically ... look into those with low RSI(14). Wait for those stocks that we are stalking to be in RED ... if possible, RED for 3-5 consecutive days!! Be confident to BUY ... and be glad to hold on to it ... yes, with a longer term view, ok?

LL, you should know how 'new' I m with markets. But, it takes more that guts to venture out of our comfort zones. I m NOT pulling you to be out of KLSE(home sweet home, ya), but be invested in HKSE will benefit you. Good luck.

Gary, thanks for your compliments. Now, I m a novice too. If you have not read my 'disclaimer', read that again. Yes, energy-power sector will benefit you in a longer term. Please dont ask me to recommend a particular stock as I really don't know. If my 'guru' Jim Rogers don't even know, how am I supposed to know, right?

Generally, I look into SECTORS and have zoomed into ENERGY and POWER play. Alternative energy stocks are highly in my list, especially WindPower and Solar stocks(in HKSE, ASX, US and LSE). Oil and Gas stocks will be shooting higher once the oil-prices reaching higher(also due to the weakening of USD, of coz).

Tenaga, IOICorp, Scomi and such should benefits from the depreciation of USD? Hmm ...

9.05 pm : Malaysia's GDP expected to be -1% now ... and recovery said to be in 2010. So, we shall expect KLSE to move lower in these few days? Time to BUY? Hmm ...

I m still stalking GPacket as it is moving lower, closed at 0.76. Let us wait for 0.70?

Wah Seong kicking some fuss today, and its wa closed at 0.33. Wow.

10.15 pm : DOW up 130 points at the moment ... rallying due to higher May's Consumer Confidence Index ... any feel-good data will help to fuel this 3 months old rally further ...
TEH

Monday, May 25, 2009


Morning ... I was 'busy' with my new blog, written for my two lovely kids. :-)

Back to market ... no excitement for me as there shouldnt be any trade at all unless CWP jump up 20% for me to clear today? Nah ... not this week or so. Hence, I shall sit at the sideline and watch ... yes, watch some cartoons or listen to some songs!!

9.20 am : China-auto ... one of the few countries in the world where there is an increase in car-sales!! Which stocks/counters will benefit? Auto car-maker, base-metal stocks or even toll-highways?

Marc Faber - Buy GOLD before the dollar collapses




Here is another Dr Doom for you!! Hehe ... at least he is explaining WHY equity markets are pumping up at the moment and the collapse is inevitable. Being in the doom-camp, I do believe such 'stories'. Gosh ... I m being brain-washed and I m glad!!

KLSE : Zooming into GPacket(spin2win?) as it is moving lower than 0.80 now.

1.10 pm: I dont know much about markets ... I was away, and will distant myself from markets UNTIL it dives again.

CWP at 0.71 vs 0.72, touched 0.75. Teach me ... should I clear my holdings(I bought more to share with JL at 0.65 last week) on CWP at 0.75 now as I have tripled my capitals on this one? It is like buying LionDiv at 0.25 and it is ar 0.60 level now, when will you clear it? Anyway, JL ... I m queueing to clear at 0.80(JL to note) for our holdings and will buy back when it retraces again?

Initially, I told my self to HOLD till it move to HKD2.50, that is 10 times my initial injections. Now, can we wait for LionDiv to move to RM2.50 to clear? That is whole question whether this rally is an INITIAL stage of a strong bull run for upcoming 3 years? Hmm ...

MARKET TALK: HK New Energy Stocks Surge; Mgr Tips Mini Bubble

0405 GMT [Dow Jones] New energy sector remains HK punters' darling amid broad market's largely dull trade with HSI down 0.3%; Solargiga (0757.HK), China WindPower (0182.HK), China Everbright International (0257.HK), Xinyi Glass (0868.HK) each up at least 4% in solid volume; intraday highs for these 4 stocks all mark year-to-date highs, may be immediate, but unlikely significant caps. Fund manager at local house says investors can't use normal valuation
metrics to look at these stocks; thinks "mini bubble" forming, like tech bubble in 2000-2001, Macau bubble in 2006-2007, believes likely "still a long way to go" before this bubble bursts. Solargiga +4.7% at HK$2.87, trades at 56.1X trailing P/E.

Bubble in a making?

If you have been following the green-stocks in China, these stocks prices have appreciated over 100% or for some 400% for past 3 months or so. Well, of course if you are following these stocks, you will follow the streams of news regarding it and making many investors(traders too) VERY optimistic about these green-stocks!!

Now, I read many investment books ... it said, time to SELL if everyone is starting to notice and crazy buying is going on!! CWP's P/E at 25 now(it was below 10 when I bought it, ok?) ... hence, these strong SENTIMENTS have nothing much to do with its current businesses. So, the valuation will be in-correct, obviously.

Will this be a bubble? What will happen when finally this bubble burst? That explain why I m comtemplating to move away till the bubble burst, if any. But in the mean time, I will still hold on ... I dislike the current hike in the prices ... I will prefer(as a longer term of 3-5 yrs) if it moves higher each month, showing strength in sector. Yes, green-sector.

It is making me unsure of my plans ... should I coutinue to hold till the bubble-burst? Moving in today might be risky? I don't know ... generally, I do know there is a hugh potential in this sector. But, I dont think so I favour any particular ONE stock. Hence, I hv no problem moving away from CWP and ... thinking of other green-stocks!

蘇芮 酒矸倘賣嘸 (1988版) <--- heard of this beautiful old song sung during Astro competition last Sat. Oh yes, I watched the singing ... instead of my usual Bloomberg? Hehe


3.45 pm : KLCI up ... GREEN everywhere with double digits gain!! WOW!! What a bull-day ... now, are we convince that KLSE having a bull-run for 3 years now? BUY BUY ... anything u like. Reosrts and Genting making huge moves ... I can see many smiling!! Yeah ...

4.50 pm : KLCI at 1053 now ... impressive!! CWP up to 0.75 now. Will stick to my plan to clear it at 0.80. As for China Solar(code : 0155.hk), it is in my stock list, JL.

TEH

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Beacon Power Announces First Quarter 2009 Results

TYNGSBORO, Mass., May 11, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Beacon Power Corporation

(BCON 0.74, -0.01, -1.73%) , a company that designs and develops advanced products and services to support more stable, reliable and efficient electricity grid operation, announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009.

For the first quarter of 2009, Beacon Power reported revenue of $111,000 and a net loss of $5,540,000, or ($0.05) per share, compared to revenue of $20,000 and a net loss of $5,287,000, or ($0.06) per share, in the first quarter of 2008. During the first quarter of 2009, Beacon earned revenue from frequency regulation service provided through an ISO-New England (ISO-NE) pilot program that began in November 2008, and from its research and development contracts. Revenue earned during the equivalent period of 2008 was derived from the sale of solar inverters and related products. Cost of goods sold increased from approximately $0 in the first three months of 2008 to approximately $172,000 during the equivalent period of 2009.

During the first quarter of 2009, cost of goods sold includes approximately $130,000 for the cost of energy associated with the provision of frequency regulation services under the pilot program. The cost of energy during this period exceeded revenue from frequency regulation service because of the manner in which the Company was connected to the grid for the pilot program. This resulted in Beacon being paid at wholesale rates for the energy the Company provided to the grid, but being charged at retail rates for the energy used. As of late April 2009, ISO-New England and the local utility have implemented a change to net metering through the ISO, which will reduce the cost of energy for the Company going forward by billing for net (rather than gross) usage at wholesale rates.

During the first quarter of 2009, Beacon began to classify as "Operations and Maintenance" on its income statement expenses related to the manufacturing, materials handling and procurement functions, Smart Energy Matrix(TM) operations, and expensed non-fungible costs associated with its flywheel installations. Prior to 2009, such expenses were included under "Research and Development." On a combined basis, Operations and Maintenance and Research and Development costs for the quarter ended March 31, 2009, were $2,968,000, compared to $3,032,000 in the first quarter of 2008, a reduction of $64,000, or 2%. The reduction in costs was attributable to lower stock-based compensation expense, greater absorption of overhead and lower legal and occupancy costs, partially offset by higher costs in certain areas. Selling, General and Administrative expense was $1,897,000 during the first quarter of 2009, compared to $2,176,000 in the first quarter of 2008, a decrease of $279,000, or approximately 13%. This decrease is due primarily to lower stock-based compensation and legal costs. Depreciation expense increased by $144,000 compared to the first quarter of 2008. This increase is primarily related to our new facility in Tyngsboro, Massachusetts

At March 31, 2009, the Company had $5.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, with working capital of $2.2 million.

About Beacon Power

Beacon Power Corporation designs, develops and is taking steps to commercialize advanced products and services to support stable, reliable and efficient electricity grid operation. The Company's primary business strategy is to commercialize its patented flywheel energy storage technology to perform frequency regulation services on the grid. Beacon's Smart Energy Matrix, which is now in production, is a non-polluting, megawatt-level, utility-grade flywheel-based solution to provide sustainable frequency regulation services. Beacon is a publicly traded company with its research, development and manufacturing facility in the U.S.

For more information, visit www.beaconpower.com.

Safe Harbor Statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:
This Material contained in this press release may include statements that are not historical facts and are considered "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect Beacon Power Corporation's current views about future events and financial performances. These "forward-looking" statements are identified by the use of terms and phrases such as "believe," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," and similar expressions identifying forward-looking statements. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements because they are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Beacon Power Corporation's expectation. These factors include: a short operating history; a history of losses and anticipated continued losses from operations; a need to raise additional capital combined with a questionable ability to do so; the complexity and other challenges of arranging project financing and resources for one or more frequency regulation power plants, including uncertainty about whether we will be successful in obtaining DOE loan guarantee support for our New York facility; conditions in target markets, including the fact that some ISOs have been slow to comply with the FERC's requirement to update market rules to include new technology such as the Company's; our ability to obtain site interconnection or other zoning and construction approvals in a timely manner; no experience manufacturing any product or supplying frequency regulation services on a commercial basis; limited commercial contracts for sales to date; the dependence of sales on the achievement of product optimization, manufacturing and commercialization milestones; the uncertainty of the political and economic climate, and the different electrical grid characteristics and requirements of any foreign countries into which we hope to sell or operate, including the uncertainty of enforcing contracts, the different market structures, and the potential substantial fluctuation in currency exchange rates in those countries; dependence on third-party suppliers; intense competition from companies with greater financial resources, especially from companies that are already in the frequency regulation market; possible government regulation that would impede the ability to market products or services or affect market size; possible product liability claims and the negative publicity which could result; any failure to protect intellectual property, including the effect of the patent litigation recently initiated against us; retaining key executives and the possible need in the future to hire and retain key executives; the historical volatility of our stock price, as well as the volatility of the stock price of other companies in the energy sector. These factors are elaborated upon and other factors may be disclosed from time to time in Beacon Power Corporation's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Beacon Power expressly does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements.
Jim Rogers



DO listen to the interview above ... a very humble Alabama's boy, achieving his wildest dream, using his wise investing BRAIN to see into 'future'. Of coz, a strong understanding of how economic works. I admired him highly. So, I have taken him as my 'guru' and listen to what he(and Soros) has to say.

Don't listen to broker house's calls ... don't BUY what others are buying. Just don't follow the crowd. That is what being a contrarian is about. The more I read about investment books, trying to grasp the whole understanding of being a CONTRARIAN ... the more I have agreed why I will be losing money doing what others doing!! Ignore the Bloomberg/CNBC ... and just extract the information to digest through our own INVESTING BRAIN ... to THINK on what we just heard and what is playing in my mind. That is my greatest challange at the moment.

This "adventure" of mine is taking yet another turn. Slowly I will write less here, indulge myself in my own thinking of my ENERGY play, before I could view if I pass or fail this year. To pass, I will like to see myself doubling my current capital(almost there once I clear all my holdings but UNREALISE profits are just paper gains, so never count your chickens before hatch).

As I m applying for more loans, I will be seeing myself taking higher risk(of being declared bankrupt) in equity markets. I will be very expose to ENERGY and POWER play, looking into 3-5 years of my investment plans. At the moment, my funds are too 'small' for me to acheive any significant results. Knowledge ---> Capitals ---> Actions ---> Results.

Jim Rogers America is Collapsing



9.45 pm : I m moving away from KLSE - so, I do not buy THE EDGE, which costs me RM6. Also, I will spend more of my time to do some readings ... I get excited learning something new. That is my education, which shall continue ...

TEH

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Jordan Chan - xuan ni hen



2.25 am : DOW up slightly, Gold at 960 level, reaching for 1000 level as USD at its low. Solar stocks down ... look at STP.

2.20 pm : Will look into SOLAR stocks with a plan to collect some ...

TEH

Friday, May 22, 2009

DOW down by 100+ points. Phew ... red again? Up and Down.

Solar : SunTech Power and SunPower high in my stalk list for Solar-power play. Evergreen Solar and JA Solar too. JL was looking at MEMC the other day. Hmm ... JL, do u still want solar-play or I shall zoom in? Let me know, buddy.

10.10 am : I thought I saw red in the morning? It is green now!! Gold-mining stocks jumping higher as Gold reaching 950 level now.

12.15 pm : I m not monitoring markets. No longer doing that as I hv no intention to trade? Now, CWP done at 0.65(JL to note) and I will sit on it till the next selling level. Will only collect more at 0.50 level or so. That is call INVESTMENT. Accumulation is the word ... HKD vs MYR at a 'low' now ... well, it could go lower, of coz.

Fund Raising

I need more funds as I m getting excited when markets diving!! I need capitals but I dont really know where I could get MORE of it. I m not moving out from wind-power in China yet as US-market still resilient. I m waiting for it to 'collapse'? DOW holding 8000 level soon, as KLCI above 1000 level.

So, I m getting loans from legalised loan-sharks ... our banks! For personal loans, it is about 10-12% per annum. Yes, I m ready to pay those of my relatives/friends 10% but NO ONE will trust that I could give them such a s0-called good rate? They are placing their money in FD(a pathetic 3%) or buying some bonds/UT. Nothing could be near 10% per annum, ok?

I m frustrated as I hv the "knowledge" without capitals to take actions. Simple common-sense will tell you that INFLATION will eat-up their pathetic interest earn. Wait ... they are NORMAL human who are so afraid to part their money!! WHO WILL? I don't wish to lose my hard-earned money too, you know.

Anyway, I m applying as much as I could get from the banks. HUMAN are too attached to their money. They are NOT educated when it comes to MONEY. I was one of them 2 years ago, I should know!!

What is my next aim? SOLAR power stocks in US(preferably ADRs).

50,000 Solar Jobs In New York

By Jeff SiegelFriday, May 15th, 2009

While Congress continues to debate renewable energy portfolios and infrastructure development, individual states and companies continue to move forward.

On Wednesday, Pacific Gas and Electric announced a deal with solar company, BrightSource Energy for the production of 1,310 megawatts of solar thermal power. There are seven projects in the deal, with the first expected to begin operations in 2012, and all being operational by 2017.
The projects still need to be reviewed and approved by the California Public Utilities Commission. But if it all works out, 530,000 homes will get their peak-hours electricity from the power produced from the BrightSource solar plants.

And this afternoon, New York Governor, David Patterson announced that the Empire State's two power authorities will purchase 150 megawatts of solar through a new program that the governor hopes will make New York the second largest solar power producer in the country. The plan could also end up creating nearly 50,000 jobs.

Patterson has also been quite aggressive in the creation of a new "smart corridor" on Long Island. This "smart corridor" will help customers of the Long Island Power Authority monitor and reduce their energy use. And $25 million has also been set aside to advance the development of Plug-In Hybrids.

TEH

Thursday, May 21, 2009

DOW down a little ... about 50 points. I was watching Tim Geithner speaking last night at Capitol Hills. Questions from AIG, GM and such thrown to him.

Anyway, JASO up almost 25% after all the upgrades news. At almost USD4 now, up 78cents. Well, JASO can double our money by next year? Certainly a better bet rather than Genting or ANY blue-chips in KLSE. We wont be seeing SIME at RM14 by next year, right? Hmm ... may be?

One-leg up or one-leg down?

At the moment we are seeing KLCI surging higher up to be at 1040 level now. Incredible climb in TWO days. Just on Monday, we are worry that the rally is over, or KLCI moving below 1000-level ... today we may say KLCI might be moving above 1050-level by this week and seeing to test 1100-level by next(or next-next) week?

So, seriously ... it is everyone's GUESS ... will it goes further UP or a sharp pullback is around the corner? Shall we BUY today and hope it will move up next week ... or shall we WAIT for it to retrace? Those bought earlier ... is it the time to clear(with small gain/loss) or should we hold a while ... "wait and see"?

These questions shouldnt bother INVESTORS much. If we like a counter, and it has been badly battered(the stock price, not its fundamental) ... then, it is time to nibble. Just FOCUS in one or two stocks - BUY at any level. 2009 could NOT be 'market at the peak' ... and do not bother to catch the bottom!! Err ... I read from the book, and I m going to follow just that. BUT, I will only BUY when everything in RED? You mean KLCI will be green for another 2 months? Hmm ... then, I will give it a skip then.

Time to accumulate for long-term investors?

Yesterday many blue-chips gaining ground again. If you are not a trader, that is GOOD as it is time to continue to nibble(buy bit by bit) ... Say I like LionInd. At 1.40 now(it touched 1.10 on Monday, k?) ... I could buy a little of it today at whatever price(opening price will do). Then, place a next level you will BUY again ... and prehaps it could be soon or next month or no buying for next 3 months? Just keep to your investing plan. If you are going to accumulate it when it goes DOWN to RM1.00, then fine ... just be happy to BUY more(since it is cheaper!!), instead of cut-loss? And if it goes DOWN to 0.60 level again(it was at this level before this rally, k?) ... be VERY glad to BUY much more ... what IF it goes DOWN to its low, at 0.40 level?? Shoot all your bullets!!

LionInd(moving down)

At 1.40 : 15% of the funds
At 1.00 : 15% of the funds
At 0.60 : 30% of the funds
At 0.40 : 40% of the funds
At lower ... no more funds!! Hehe

Well, I don't really think what if it moves higher!! GOOD ... be happy to top-up!! But, I couldnt imagine KLSE will continue this rally for long, so I m not optimistic and couldnt imagine LionInd at 2.00?

Looking into http://www.waterchina.com/ ... yes, I m searching into WATER as a 'blue gold' and I still like CHINA. Perhaps I m a chinese? We shouldnt be biased as an investor. Hehe

Looking into http://www.veolia-finance.com/ <--- environmental services. 9.30 am : KLCI up again!! I m monitoring SingTel(code : Z74.SI) and queue-ing at 2.80.

Note for YC : You are welcome, YC. But, I DID NOT make a call to buy ANY specific counters. I hv to repeat that this blog is meant to share my thoughts. I hope I m not writing some specific stocks and some readers really BUY into it and get stucked? To be honest, I m VERY inexperienced. I m only 1 year and 5 months old in these investing/trading things. So, do take my words ... DO NOT buy what I m writing here, ok?

I m only writing what I m looking into to BUY. Yes, I bought CWP but clearing more today at 0.73-0.75. I might clear ALL at 0.80+ soon. That is me la ...

Yes, I m currently looking into SOLAR and will write the whole list of SOLAR counters in my stalk list ... about 12 at the moment. JASO is one of them, of coz. :-)

Glad that you profit from CWP. I like WINDPOWER and any other alternative energy counters. I hv recommended that to my colleague(LL) since last DEC. And I m still "calling" on these stocks. One need to read what Obama(US) and China is rushing for at the moment. We are talking about hybrid car now. Look into this sector for INVESTMENT purposes ... it will NOT ONLY double your money, but ... much more?

Err ... YC, can I hv my doughnut now? Big-Apple's choc, please? Hehe

10.35 am : Profit-taking on CWP(with RSI above 90+) and it is moving down. I m queue-ing at 0.63 to BUY more and 0.73 to SELL.

12.30 pm : CWP touched 0.66(intraday low) and moving back to 0.69 vs 0.70. I was also queue-ing for LionInd at 1.30 but not done as it touched 1.31. Going for lunch and will look into solar and water later.

10.50 pm : Oh Boy, markets took a turn and my SingTel done at SGD2.80. I hv little cash left as my CWP and CPNE not done.

Evergreen Solar is diving now!! BUY!!

TEH

Wednesday, May 20, 2009


JASO refused to move down, closed at 3.19, after a lower opening(2.80) due to the 'bad' news.

For Eric : JASO is in Solar Power sector, and it is a-Chinese company listed in US. Hmm ... I hv not think of what price I m willing to pay, but I will only BUY if there is a sell-out or 3-days battering of its price? At the moment, it seems that I won't get it.

RSI-14 around 50+ and still above MA-50. If I m going to grab it, it will be below USD2.80, please for the first round. I will plan fo 3-rounds buying. So, it is KIV at the moment.

VIX reported to be below 30 ... be fearful when others are greedy. VIX is an index to show volatility, in other words if investors/traders are in fear or greed? We are going into GREED region now(as VIX below 30) ... so, if we are being a contrarian, BE FEARFUL. Be PATIENT and wait for VIX above 40-50 again, or when markets experiencing a pull-back. I m sticking to my plans --- zooming into GOOD counters that retracing due to temporary 'bad news' [such as GoldenAgri which dived from 0.48 to 0.38 to 0.34 ... I queued at 0.30*ridiculous* and currently rebounded back to 0.40 level!!].

When a market making a huge correction, and a particular stock experincing a sell-down, yes .. that will be a time to BUY. But, tho I hv done the FA works, I will apply some simple TA, whether I should SELL. It is the exit point that is more important to determine if we profit(or loss).

CWP was at 0.55 level last week but when markets moved down, CWP naturally went down with it too. It is 'sentiment' in play ... and sentiments are temporary. So, I was glad to grab it at 0.49 but it moved lower to 0.46(I was ready to BUY more at 0.40+) only to rebound strong back to 0.50 level. Then the next day, it went back to 0.55 level before reaching my 0.60 level. I m happy to SELL at 0.60(it's resistance level and RSI at 90). So, later ... do u think I will be saying "hai-ya" it move to 0.65 la? Err ... like I will know? Technically it is a SELL. Planning of 20% gain last week, I m glad. But, seriously ... I will move in into it again once my BUYING criteria satisfied. When?? No one could answer that ... in the mean time, sniff around for other opportunities. JASO? Hmm ...

9.00 am : I m queueing for GPacket at 0.83 and AnnJoo-wb at 0.35.

10.15 am : Wow .. KLCI all green again? I m queue-ing for CWP at 0.56(40k units) but as there is a surge up, I don't think so it will be done. So, I will continue to queue for it in daily basis at 0.56(or lower!!).

10.30 am : China Cosco(code : 1919.hk) which JL bought at 7.68 is at 9.30 level now due to the HKSE-bull. With RSI at 70+ now, reaching 80, JL it is time to THINK of selling. Good trade.

10.50 am : CWP shooting higher to 0.64 vs 0.65 now. I hv cancelled my queue at 0.56 as it is too ridiculous. Haha. Just wait for the correction ... no wind for me for few days, then.

MARKET TALK: Hot Sector Punts Suggest HK Mkt Mood Still Upbeat

0311 GMT [Dow Jones] Still hot punting on several themes - such as alternative energy, Fujian-related stocks, home appliances - can be taken as sign HK investor sentiment remains buoyant, thus investors can use this as a barometer to gauge when market may retreat; when such theme punts cool off, may be sign to become a bit cautious. Among those standing out today: China WindPower (0182.HK) +8.2% at 66 HK cents, Solargiga (0757.HK), Singyes Solar (0750.HK) each up more than 4%; Xiamen Port (3378.HK) leaps 8.6% to HK$1.77; Skyworth (0751.HK), Haier (1169.HK) each up at least 15%.

2.00 pm : I m not looking into KLSE or markets. I will only look into those in RED and diving ... CWP was so strong that it is at 0.69 now. WOW! Blow-me off. No, I m not chasing the wind BUT might think of JASO tonight if it move lower ... otherwise, have to do more homework on more companies and wait for ... "durian runtuh". Be patient ... uummm ...

My objective : Double my money in one year?

2.40 pm : I m thinking of clearing another half of my CWP at 0.75(tripled my buy price of 0.245) as it is VERY hot now. I m trying to learn to be contrarian. I will still be searching around on stocks that NOT so popular but with huge potential. Then SELL it once it is becoming hot.

Also, I m thinking of clearing my CPNE too at 0.64 level or so soon(doubled my buy price of 0.32)

Once these two of my wind-stocks cleared, I would have acheived my objective of this YEAR - to double my capital by this year. I still have 6 more months to go? Hmm .. may be I should consider to get out of markets for a while till everything collapse and DARE enough to move in more aggressively then. Hmm ... wish I hv a 'guru' to share with me and let me know what I should really do.

Most probably, I will NOT sell any of my two babes as I m told myself to hold for 3-5 years? Wonder if I should change my plans? WHY?

SGX : SingTel retraces after a strong push. Target to move in at 2.65 or below.

9.55 pm : I m looking at KLCI which closed higher, with the leads from PLANTATION stocks : IOICorp, Asiatic, KMLoong ... so, i might think of HSPlant, my fav plantation babe besides Asiatic.

Crude oil price at USD62 and Gold at 937 level. Wow. Yeah ... we are being optimistic that economies are recovering now. So, what's next?

10.20 pm : JASO jumps up 14%. Arrghh ... all the green-stocks being grabbed. Gold reaching 940 now.

TEH

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

I will recommend this one book for ANYone who wish to understand market psychology ...

"It's not what stocks you buy, it is when you sell that counts" by Donald L.Cassidy

Read Chapter 9 : Be A Contrarian.

I was so engrossed to it since last night ... and I m going to type some excerpts here for my own references.

Quote : "BUY when everyone else is selling and HOLD until everyone is buying"

Example : JASO(NASDAQ)

JA Solar, Another Big Solar Miss (JASO, SOLR, SPWRA)

Posted: May 19, 2009 at 7:41 am

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ:JASO) reported first quarter 2009 results this morning, and the news was not so hot. The company posted a diluted EPS loss of -$0.18 on revenue of $33.9 million. In the year-ago quarter, JA Solar posted revenue of $164.2 million and a diluted EPS of $0.99. Estimates averaged an EPS loss of -$0.05 on revenue of $107.89. JA Solar’s results just stink.Just a week ago GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ:SOLR) reported missing estimated EPS and revenue, following lousy reports from SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWRA) and others solar players. For the past 12 months, JA Solar shares have fallen more than 80%.

The company’s CEO blamed the poor showing on “worse than normal seasonality, a weak macro-economic environment and the continuing impact of the credit crisis.” Then he goes on to say that the company is preparing for what it hopes will be a recovery in the market based on “encouraging signs of market improvement in key end markets.” So it is hoping for better results based on hopeful signs. That’s excellent management.

JA Solar also revised its guidance down from annual revenue of $830-$952 million, but it did not provide a new number. Analysts’ estimates for the year were $733.84 million, but that is sure to fall off the edge of the table following today’s report.

JA Solar’s shares are down more than 12% in pre-market trading, to $2.83. The company’s 52-week trading range is $1.55-$26.99. A new low is not impossible given the weakness the company reported today.

Paul Ausick(May 19, 2009)

TEH
CWP closed at 0.61 today(RSI14 at 87.82 and RSI9 at 91.29).

DOW up 200+ points ... and we are seeing green again today? hmm ...

8.40 am : Green(not Greenspan) opening expected ... finally, it is sunny again. Weather is unpredictable these days ... it has been raining for past 3 days, and sudden we are seeing bright strong sunlight. Do u want to come out and play? If only we are CONTRARIAN, we will be playing under the rain .. I do that(literally, I mean) once a while. If it rains heavily, I will rush to the beach and get myself fully soak!! It is a real beauty kinda feeling ... that is what making me to love Sabah so much, and bought a place near the beach here!! Hehe ... ooopsss ... I m carried away, wondering when will be my next ... err ... soaking?

We Believe by Good Charlotte



MARKET TALK: CPY Keeps Overweight On China New Energy Sector

0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Core Pacific-Yamaichi expects China will soon announce new initiatives to accelerate development of renewable energy sector, which will benefit wind-power component makers, wind-farm constructors and operators,as well as upstream and downstream solar energy companies. "Considering the credit crunch and fallen raw material costs at present, we think the downstream renewable plays would benefit more than their upstream counterparts," says CPY.Adds, wind firms would benefit more than solar ones as size of China's windpower market larger than that of solar power. Keeps Overweight on China new energy sector. Among sector plays, China Windpower (0182.HK) +3.7% at 56 HKcents, China Singyes Solar (0750.HK) +4.1% at HK$3.03.

JL : I m clearing our CWP at 0.60(in queue) as the RSI reaching 90 now. If we still want this one, I will surely glad to BUY more of it when it retraces. We bought at 0.49 last week, a 2k profit should be ok with u?

9.45 am : I was speaking to LL the other day. BUY when everywhere is RED and feel your own heart, if you are IN GREAT FEAR .... BUY. Crazy, right? It is easier said than done, ok? When everything is GREEN(like today) .... THINK of SELLING. Fix to our plan, I m fixing to SELL CWP since it is still moving much higher(due to good news and HKSE up). It is technically at SELLING point. There are still MANY in my stalk list, anyway. By the way, I m still holding 40% of my funds in these babes at half of the price. I m focus on Energy ... it gives me the energy I needed. Hehe

3.50 pm : CWP done moments ago ... at 0.60(I was queueing for 0.59 yesterday). Well, it is still moving higher, at 0.61 vs 0.62 now. I dont know if it will SHOOT UP tmr ... but, I will BUY back if it retraces or else I will look around for RED STOCKS.

HSI added 500+ points today and KLCI adding about 15points now. That is the effect of 3 consecutive RED days. I will only move back again to BUY when all red. In the mean time, I will sitting sideway ...

9.30 pm : Stock to watch tmr - GPacket.

TEH

Monday, May 18, 2009

The second case of 'swine flu' reported in Penang(my born-place). The first was in KL(sg buluh is near my Kepong hometown!). Is there a 'panic' at the moment ... like cancellation of trips? Then, Aviation and Hotels could be affected. An opportunity to BUY these stocks?

I m still looking at Air-China and such ... one stalk list only for the 'SWINE FLU" opportunities in crisis stocks.

At the moment, I m looking at GoldenAgri. Zooming in to buy ...

8.20 am : I have promised myself NOT to monitor markets!! Hehe ... so, I will be 'free' to read my books(investment related) or magz. But, I m will need to look into GoldenAgri with intention to BUY(first round). CPO prices has been moving higher but I guess the upside capped. Once these hu-hu-ha-ha is over, we could seriously accumulate counters that we see potential of recovering higher.

Nikkei losing almost 2% now ... It is in everyone's mind at the moment ... is the pullback this time very severe or is it a reversal sign? I don't hold anything much ... and will only top-up my AnnJoo-wb once it move to my BUY level again. Other than that, I will sit back and watch ... only at the end of the day?

9.05 am : I queued for AnnJoo-wb and GoldenAgri both at 0.30(10k units only). Nikkei losing 2.5% now. Hmm ... KLCI all in REDS ... TEMPTING me to go in. NO NO ... KLCI going below 1000 level today?

12.30 pm : KLCI still breathing above 1000 level? Hmm ... reds everywhere. Will move in again when these sell-out is over. Yes, I like waterfalls. I m only looking into few counters namely LionInd and AnnJoo-wb(as I m stucked?) for steel-play. Will look into GPacket too.

None of my baits taken. I m clearing CWP at 0.59(bought last week at 0.49) too(JL to note). Queue for AnnJoo-wb at 0.295 not done. GoldenAgri at 0.35 now. Noted.

What should we do IF we are stucked?

For short-term traders, normally we will clear almost all at the first sign of downturn. So, CU CUT CUT. The pain is still bearable at the initial stage. For example, I was careless to queue for Scomi(last Thu) at so-called low prices. It was at 0.79(and my queue was at 0.75 n below) ... so, I was busy. It dived and all my queued done!! As I do not hv an intention to hold for long, it moved lower last Friday ... like it or not I have to CUT it off for loss.

Yes, today Scomi moving lower(all reds everywhere!!!) and I m not stucked? I still am ... tho I cut off 10k of AnnJoo-wb at 0.395 last friday for a loss, I m still holding 10k of it. So, I m STUCKED? Yes ... and err .. no. I hv to get stucked for a while and going to accumulate more of it at LOWER prices, please. At the moment, AnnJoo-wb at 0.35 ... and I was queueing at 0.30(another 10k units) to average down. I hv NO intention to clear it if I m caught at 0.30 and it moves LOWER next week or so? You see, we do not know how SHARP this correction would be or it is a reversal. So, IF you are stucked, be happy to grab MORE(unless u place 100% of you money on one stock at one price? That is ... not wise?)

Hence, I will wish to see AnnJoo-wb at 0.20 level again, if ever. We never know ... be brave to BUY more when things are cheaper(provided the stock won't collapse?!) ... HOLD to it to clear during NEXT rebound? AnnJoo at 0.46 for me is VERY HIGH ... but with only RM4,600 temporarily stucked there, I could stomach it. I m still looking at my next buy at 0.30 or lower!! Will I get stuck for ... err ... forever? I don't know too. But, dont worry ... there will always silver lining aftermath.

I will be glad to start to collect GoldenAgri too.

6.15 pm : KLCI closed slightly lower ... to be at 1012. HSI up 232points while STI up 33points.

GoldenAgri closed at 0.37(touched 0.34). AnnJoo-wb at 0.365(touched 0.32). I will continue to monitor to BUY these two babes .... hmm ...

10.10 pm : DOW up 100+ points, with financial stocks UP.

KLSE : Stock to stalk - GPacket, LionInd and


TEH

Sunday, May 17, 2009

The "Blue Gold" --- Water as commodity.

China Water (code : 0855.hk)

Ming Hing Water (code : 0402.hk)

TEH
It is not WHAT you BUY, it is HOW you SELL that counts ... interesting book. And it reflects of many occasions on my mistakes. Once beaten, twice shy?

Water Industry

Water is considered as Blue Gold. China will be pumping in billions to get their population 'clean water'. If the China Gov keeps to their words regarding the green-environmental call, then besides the green energy stocks, WATER will be focused. I read an article regarding probable water-crisis in China. Yes, water is a commodity ... and we could recognise that as ab investment opportunities!!

SGX : 5GB.SI and A58.SI

HKSE :1129.HK and 1065.HK

9.30 am : I m in state-library. I m here fortnightly to read 'free' magz such as Newsweek, Fortune, Forbes, Personal Money, Business Week and Economic Review. I could borrow The Economist from my school library. These are the few magz I read and tried to understand the going-ons in global business/economic news. NEWS as it is a NOISE in our investing plan. Overloading of information and failing to digest it in rational way could drown us, instead of helping us to make "investing" plans in proper. I m at the brink of news overloaded.

Hence, I will be reading more to understand(the quest for knowledge and education) rather than trade. I promising myself NOT to trade ... it is irresposible of me towards my own investing plan. And it is not good for health too!! Haha.

Newsweek Mac 16th : Sell BUY!! Don't believe the BEARS by Barton Biggs

RECESSION - The Chinese Disease. An interesting short article, comparing China vs Germany. High savings rate, a solid manufacturing base and no exuberance in their real-estate market. Yet the crisis hit Germany much harder than America!!

Germany = China : Own conservative position as an export-driven surplus nation threathens to be its undoing.

The Green Machine : Refering to our Terminator action-star turning politics, flexing his muscle and turning green. I do not mean the 'incredible hulk' but green-technology. Arnold -> California -> Silicon Valley -> Green Tech. Interesting, he even wore a GREEN tie!!

Cash in a Mattress? No, Gold in the Closet by Lisa Miller : With prices setting new records, the worried wealthy are piling up ingots in home safes. This is one good reading for those interested with the direction of the precious metal. Yes, if these bailout failing and systems collapse ... then gold will be seen as a 'safe-haven' yet again. USD? Nah ... no longer hold water, in my opinion. In OCT2008, Gold at 806, and then in MAC2009 it was at 919. As I m writing today, Gold at 930 level. Can you see the trend? If gold REALLY retraces back to 700 level, be happy to grab it as much as you can. For an equitiy-trader(like me), I will be happy to buy LingBao(code :3330.hk) again at, say below HK1.80? Yes, I m in a waiting game ...

FORTUNE - 16th Feb 2009 issue : China's Solar King Shi Zhengrong

Solar Power : Suntech(code : STP.N) - Do go to its website www.suntech-power.com to download its 160pages Annual Report. I m not sure ... but it 'sounds' like this is a booming industry and China's gov will be injecting $$$ into this sector. Yes, Solar or WindPower are the alternative 'green' power China's gov will be 'betting' on.

Top Five TARP Recipients

1. Citigroup(NY City) - 50b
2. BofA(Charlotte) - 45b
3. AIG(NY City) - 40b <--- congrats MU.
4. Well Fargo(SF) - 25b
5. JP Morgan(NY City) - 25b

TEH

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Avoiding grief at the market

A QUESTION OF BUSINESS WITH P. GUNASEGARAM

Timely action taken now to return order to the market will save a lot of grief in the near future.
HERE’S some statistics for you. At least a 100 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia saw their market price increase by at least two-thirds this year. The increase ranged from two thirds to two and a quarter times or 225%!

If you had bought any of these companies, you would have made a pretty handsome return this year and you will proverbially laugh all the way to your proverbial bank as you deposit your not-so-hard-earned money.

The Malaysian market, it seems, has sprung into action again, or has someone sprung an act on it?

The stellar statistics are plain for all to see for the top 100 – only in terms of price performance that is.

That compares with a mere 15% for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, a measure of the performance of the better companies on the market. The all-encompassing Emas all-share index went up only slightly higher by 18%.

What gives? If you were a rational man, you would think that these 100 companies must have either been severely undervalued in the past or they may have suddenly been recognised by the investment community as having excellent prospects for the future.

However, a perusal of the list of companies in the top 100 show no such thing. Almost all of them are penny stocks – those whose share value is less than RM1.

In fact, about a third costs 10 sen or less per share. You could get one lot, or one thousand shares, for a mere RM100 or even less, below the cost of a business lunch for two.

Many of these top 100 – but not all of them – are in financial difficulty, have serious problems and small relative market values. Under such circumstances, one wonders why they are moving up the way they are.

And yes, the market is seeing very high turnover in terms of units. There is plenty of trading but the ringgit value of turnover, although higher, has not increased by as much as the increase in number of units traded.

That means the market activity this time is focused on those shares whose prices are lower, which generally means the second liners rather than the blue chips.

But it, as we saw earlier, does not seem to be focused on those shares that have exceptional value as indicated by their prospects and assets.

The only explanation for such irrational behaviour in the market is that unseen hands are moving them.

Their game plan always is to create momentum and pull the small retail investors in. At some opportune time, the play will disappear and the prices will collapse.

Those holding the parcel when the music stops will get their forfeits as they say goodbye to their investments and the market will take a longer time to recover from a loss of confidence. The retail investors will stay out for a bit.

Everyone will wring their hands in agony – pretended or otherwise – for a while and then the casino lights will beckon again and the cycle will repeat itself.

Why, oh why, do we subject ourselves to this needless pain again and again, which helps syndicates and their allies pocket millions at the expense of those with lesser knowledge, and in the process handicap our markets from playing their true economic role?

In case those responsible have forgotten, that role is for the market to act as an efficient intermediary for the trading of capital and thereby contribute to economic development – not earn income for brokers through churning activity, help enrich selected market players or create an impression that everything is OK in the country.

The signals are there. The time to take action to keep the market orderly is now before we come to grief a few weeks from now.

·Managing editor P. Gunasegaram says there’s already plenty of smoke indicating fires in the market. He wonders why those who wield the fire extinguishers don’t see it and put it out immediately.

TEH : I was reading my STAR paper while having my lunch just now. This article(I like his column!!) is very well-written and reminding me AGAIN and AGAIN to stick to my own plans. Normally we planned it well, but along the way ... we swayed away due to distractions and also EMOTIONS. Hence, to avoid such a situation ... a longer term INVESTING idea could be much more beneficial. I m not sure about others ... but I want to stick to my views on DJIA or KLCI -- bearish.

If you look at KLSE last-last Friday(refer to my previous posts), I was VERY surprised that even Mobif, Iris and such counters in play. That is a BAD omen. That shows the signs of stress in market. I have only 1 year plus experiences in KLSE but I hv seen a few BEAR-rallies ...

The dive in March 2008 was a total "unexpected" event for a novice(of 2 months old) like me. I was holding to Ranhill and Jaks at that moment. Teach me how to cut-loss? I was stunned to do anything ... plenty of emotions in play. If for a 'normal' newbie, he might throw-in his towel and never be in market anymore. That is WHY many view markets as a HIGH RISK place to put your money in!! But, luckily I m not so-normal. Phew!! I waited for any short rallies to CLEAR. Even that, I lost 40-60% of my funds,then.

The NOV-rally is still vivid. I could still recall some of the warrants and call-warrants I played with to gain substantially. I pulled out after CNY ... that was when JL came into my trading adventure.

This March-rally is much much stronger than anyone could expect. KLCI 'only' moved down to 850 level and strongly rebounded above 1000 level in 2 months!! It surely makes even a pessimistic person bullish!! I might wanting to believe it ... but I DO NOT. I traded it rather than buy and hold. Yeah ... if we bought in March and HOLD till this week, many have gained more than 100%. I was playing with AnnJoo-wb since it was at 0.18 level, ok? Yesterday it dived to 0.38 from 0.48 days ago!! IF I thrown in my whole fortune(kah-chan) at 0.18 and happily sold off everything at 0.36 ... I could have doubled whatever I owned now??! Yes? No? ... err ... NO. How do you know this BEAR-rally lasted so long?? Hmm ... all or nothing mentality? Hmm ...

So, I was sharing with JL many indicators and economic data and written here to convince others that this is a BEAR-rally and not a BULL-run. You do not need to read so much, but just use some simple common-sense to understand that the HUGE crisis could not be swept under the carpets just like that, ok?

So ... what's next? Is the correction temporarily and should we buy ... err .. say, LionInd at 1.10-1.20 next week? Hey, I sold LionInd at 1.40 days ago!! It went all the way up to 1.50 level, u know. So, IF a person think that next week onwards ... the rally could continue(we are at initial BULL RUN!!), by all mean ... buy LionInd(or any good counters u like) as it retraces now.

But IF we are on the similar side, believing that KLCI could go below 1000 level soon, or even 900 level soon ... or ... below 800 level soon or ... then, we shall be sideline to watch. Markets do not go up or down by themselves. It is traders/investors who are playing with EMOTIONS.

No good reason(s) for AnnJoo to go all the way down to RM1 level only to shoot up above RM2 in two months, ok? These are retail investors and traders nature ... they cant resist rallies. Yours truly included, of coz.

I m much calmer than I was last year. Wounded but I m seeing the healing much easier. In fact, I m so positive this morning ... and decide to focus on my readings. I like my investment/trading books ...



TEH
My Investing/Trading Plans

To wait for 'durian runtuh'. When DOW dives(and KLCI will too), I will be ready to collect. RSI below 30, please.

For US-market, there are a few to play with for the NEXT bear rally : DRYS and LVS could give us huge %, if we could stomach the risks. For investment, green stocks will be my focus. HTM.A, for example. GE.N too.

For HK-market, I will still collect my CWP/CPNE(3-5 years) and such, riding on the China's gov stimulus into energy(and green-energy). For shorter term(3-6 months), mining stocks(gold in mind) interest me. Yes, I like ChinaAir or ChinaMobile ... or China-whatever too?

For SG-market, Wilmar and Gen SP moved higher now. GoldenAgri dived more than 15% yesterday. Besides these, I like SingTel and Keppel. CapitaLand is for property play.

For KL-market, I will only focus on steel and O&G counters. Steel : LionInd, AnnJoo(and its warrant) and Kinstel. As for O&G, I will focus on Scomi and Kencana. Perhaps, KNM?

How about OZ-market? How about currencies play? Too many things around with very little capitals to distribute. Hence, I really need to FOCUS.

Bull Market in Materials (2003 to 2007)

1. Copper 337%
2. Nickel 272%
3. Zinc 218%
4. Silver 216%
5. Iron Ore 189%
6. Platinum 156%
7. Gold 144%
8. Steel 94%
9. Aluminium 77%

Source : Thomson Datastream, IMF.

Happy Weekend.

TEH
MEMC (WFR.N) : At 15.84(L 10.00), technically it is not a buy(see above). With US-market expected to move further down, we can see it retraces back to, perhaps below USD15 soon. As for longer term investment, plan to move in at 3-5 stages when it moving lower.

MARKET TALK: HK Dry Bulkers Off Highs; SHKF Likes China Cosco

0732 GMT [Dow Jones] HK dry-bulk shippers off early highs, as consolidationexpected to set in soon after their recent sharp rally (up 9.0%-20.5%month-to-date), with Baltic Dry Index advancing 37.2% over past 10 sessions."The sector is likely to benefit from the recent strength in the BDI, but theoutlook remains uncertain as it's still too early to say there are any majorimprovements in terms of fundamentals, with some of these companies expected topost losses for the next couple of years," says Castor Pang at Sun Hung KaiFinancial. Prefers China Cosco (1919.HK) on its parent backing and morediversified business portfolio. Stock +1.6% at HK$7.82, off early high ofHK$8.19. Adds medium-term target for CC at HK$11.00. Pacific Basin (2343.HK)+1.2% at HK$4.29, China Shipping Development (1138.HK) +2.5% at HK$10.60.Intraday highs of PB, CSD at HK$4.40, HK$10.82, respectively.(

Friday, May 15, 2009


Investing Ideas

I was thinking of DOW moving down with the collapse in rally, drags down by US financial stocks and GM's bankrutcy. How are we preparing ourselves to take advantage on such a panicky situation? USD will de-value too. It is the matter of time ... with these two main points in my mind, HOW should we benefit from it?

1. Buying a bear-financial ETF in US? FAZ?

2. Buying gold ... or gold-related stocks? HKSE?

3. Buy Yen(vs USD)?

4. Learn to BUY put-options of those financial stocks?

5. ...still wondering ...

Yes, I m certain that this rally is not sustainable. And also, I believe that USD will be weaken significantly. So, how should we(those with this mind-set and beliefs) prepare ourselves to profit hugely when DOW dives? Are they banning short-ing again?

These are things I wish to share with JL, actually.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Stocks still face deflationary collapse: Prechter

Thu May 14, 2009 6:09pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that U.S. equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites.

Oil and U.S. Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets, while corporate bond prices will plunge precipitously by next year as broad economy, banking system and company earnings sustain more damage from a financial crisis that's akin to the Great Depression, he said.

The U.S. S&P 500 stock index's rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters.

"It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932," he told Reuters in a wide ranging interview. "It's a very rare event," he added.

"I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety," he said.

As in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, Prechter continues to advocate safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.

SEVEN MORE YEARS?

Riskier assets such as commodities, corporate bonds, and stocks which are currently anticipating that the severe global economic downturn may be bottoming, are likely to have short lived intense rallies, but within an inexorable long-term decline that may last another seven years, he said.

As banks continue to accumulate losses and corporate earnings fall, "the difficulties will probably last through about 2016," he said. "There will be plenty of rallies along the way."

Oil may rally further from current levels just below $60 per barrel but the upside will be capped at about $80 per barrel as the commodity is locked in a long-term bear market, he said.

In July, U.S. crude oil hit a record peak above $147 per barrel and was just above $57 per barrel around noon on Thursday.

"Deflation is coming, it's going to lead to a depression. We're not at the bottom yet," Prechter said. "I think we are going to have bouts of deflation separated by recoveries."

Prechter also painted a bleak picture for commodities like silver and is largely unenthusiastic about gold, believing the precious metal made a major peak when it rose above $1,000 last year.
While gold may have already topped at above $1,000 an ounce in March 2008, Treasury bond prices are likely to fall in a long term bear market, with huge government debt issuance being the main catalyst.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which moves inversely to its price, hit a five-decade low of 2.04 percent in mid-December.

"People got very enamored with bonds and very enamored with gold and I don't like to be invested in markets that are over subscribed," Prechter said.

"The Treasury (Department) has taken on so much bad debt" at a time tax receipts are falling, that "there will be a slow, but very steady change in the way people will view the U.S. government," said Prechter. As a result, investors in Treasury notes and bonds will ultimately demand higher yields, he said.

The U.S. central bank will not be able to control the government bond market and prevent yields from rising, regardless of how much money the Fed uses to buy Treasuries, he added.

Next year, U.S. corporate bond prices will probably fall below their extreme price lows of December during the market panic of 2008 when investors fled riskier assets, he said.

"Corporates in terms of price have the big wave down coming. This has been a prequel," Prechter said.

"Many corporations who (now) say we can borrow more money and take more risks: those are the ones who will get in trouble," he said. "Many municipalities will default," he added.
(Reporting by John Parry, Haitham Haddadin and Ellis Mnyandu.)

TEH