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Sunday, April 26, 2009


USD Index showing that USD in the downward movements. DXM9 at 84.90 now.

The USD Index measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. Chart obtained from http://www.traderslog.com/

The formula is as following: from WiKi

USDX = 50.14348112 * EURUSD^-0.576 * USDJPY^0.136 * GBPUSD^-0.119 * USDCAD^0.091 * USDSEK^0.042 * USDCHF^0.036

where ^ is math power operation.

Many stocks in KLSE registered more than 10% increase in their prices last week. So, it is very difficult to find a stock(good one?) that has yet to move ... many has almost 'doubled' the prices since this rally started in early March. So, we do expect proofit-taking soon and any bad news from the US may bring down DOW back to 7000 level(the bank stress test?) and a plunge in KLCI is inevitable.

The law is the higher you go, the harder you could fall. Well, unless you wish to insist that the worst is over and you are a long term investor, buying at the bottom now??

LL : LionInd and many more stocks are at overbought level(KLCI too) ... so, if you are REALLY interested in collecting LionInd for longer term, do not buy next week. Correction will be here and start to buy in stages when moving further down(cheaper) but you will surely need to hold for much longer as we do not know when/where the bottom is ... if you ask me, i will still maintain that this rally will NOT last and it is not the beginning of the bull. So, be glad to collect at much cheaper price, ok?

So, the first round of buying ... shall be when KLCI plunges back to 800 level? Many argued that we will not see 800-level anymore, but perhaps 850. We shall see ...

JL : For ZhaoJin, with DOW added 100+points on Friday, we expect HSI to move up tmr too. With good news about gold at the moment, ZJ may jump further up but do take profit at HKD12-13(resistance) if RSI shoots up to 70-80. Monitor gold price, USD index, CPI & inflation, Copper charts generally. Particularly, look into resistance & some technical indicators(at least you are looking into Bollinger band which I don't) for the sell signal. Sms me if you have anything urgent regarding 1818.hk as I wont be free tmr to monitor market tmr. Good luck.

As for tmr, I wish to clear my LionInd and AnnJoo for a small profit/loss. I will be eyeing at HSPlant or 2771.kl for plantation play. CPO moving higher above 2500 level now. And HSPlant is my love(for those following my blog since Aug 2008!!).

TEH

4 comments:

Jonathan said...

Yes, I totally agree with you all the stock which we just or on hand need to let on when it is time as this bull or "cow" market is somehow an unpredictable as we still see the recession is still ongoing. Personally, for short term gain, I prefer Ramunia Holdings as the overtaking of Sime Darby will surely boost the share price.

CP said...

Hi Jonathan(my son's name!! Hehe),

A short comment on Ramunia --- it has SHOT up so high last Friday and I diislike taking such a huge risk. Yes, THE EDGE today reported that some GLC(Sime) might be interested and will finalise it in this two weeks. Yes, TRADE cautiously as taking-profit is the name of the game.

Good luck.

TEH

p/s : Do look beyond KLSE -- suggesting HKSE.

Jackie Lee said...

I was wondering whether the KL Composite will reach 1,030 next week.

What is your call CP?

Still trade a bit ?

CP said...

Hi Jackie,

nice hearing from you. I hv replied u in your blog. hehe.

Yes, I m very much in KLSE now(25% funds)holding to LionInd and AnnJoo.

But, yes ... NOT BUY and HOLD for me, might hold for another week, at most. RSI too high to be in comfort.

Thanks for coming in, ya. Hehe

Night.

TEH