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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

DOW down less than 10points. Many still very anxious about the stress-test. The swine-flu compound the uncertainties. It is the best to be sideline at the moment and wait for things to be stablised before we think of going in again? We shall see ...

KLCI might be seeing 950 today? The 1000-level thoughts have been forgotten. Just last week we were talking about a possible to KLCI breaching its psychological 1000-level, but as the thing turn out to be, we are seeing more fears than positiveness. Hence, most probably we are talking about 950-level, 900-level and below .. abandoning the 4-digits optimistic figures.

Aviation vs Swine-flu

In Asia, Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), which bore the brunt of the SARS crisis in 2003, closed down 0.95 percent after sharp earlier falls, and Air China (0753.HK) fell 7 percent.
Stone Lin, an airline analyst with Yuanta Securities in Taiwan, said the flu outbreak could dim hopes for summer travel.


"The summer months of July-September are typically the peak season for most airlines, with most bookings beginning right now," the analyst said.

"With sentiment so weak, and worsened by the swine flu issue, it's unlikely anyone is going to go rushing to book holidays or corporate travel, which means the second half of this year won't be pretty for most airlines," he added.

IATA, which represents 230 carriers, said airlines could lose $4.7 billion this year before any impact from swine flu.

But Michael O'Leary, the head of leading European low-cost airline Ryanair (RYA.I), sounded a contrarian note.

"Are we going to die from swine flu? No. Are we in danger of SARS? No. Foot and mouth disease? No. Will it affect people flying short-haul flights around Europe this summer? Thankfully, no," he said.

TWO HEADWINDS

During the SARS outbreak, which began in China, airline traffic in Asia halved, and airline stocks tumbled 25 percent or more.

Most industry watchers, however, said it was still too early to say how big the
swine flu risk could be to airlines this time.

"The overall situation is weaker now ... because there are two headwinds the airline industry is facing: one is the global recession and now this outbreak of swine flu," said Daphne Roth, analyst at ABN Amro private bank.

But she added the current situation was also different from SARS, as information about the illness is coming out faster.

"There is a lot of fear out there right now and I think we've got to see if it gets much worse or the same or better over the next few weeks," said Clay Jones, chief executive of Rockwell Collins (COL.N), a U.S. supplier of parts to Boeing Co (BA.N) and EADS (EAD.PA) unit Airbus.

"If Mexico stays the center of attention, I'm not overly concerned," Jones added. "If it spreads widely in the United States, obviously that's a much different situation."

(Writing by Tim Hepher in Paris, Doug Young in Taipei and Karen Jacobs in Atlanta; additional reporting by Reuters bureaus across the world; editing by Will Waterman, Patrick Fitzgibbons and Steve Orlofsky)

8.55 am : I m still with a conviction to clear my LionInd as I 'accidentally' bought at 0.91(10k units) yesterday. I did not expect it to be done THAT low level. In fact, it went down all the way to 0.885!! I was at dental-clinic, paying money to get the drilling-pain. Ouch!

9.15 am : KLCI losing another 10points ... at 955 now. After seeing off 950, will it be back to 930 level this week? LionInd in RED, at 0.895 now. Well, queueing at 0.875 hmm ...

9.25 am : LionInd sold at 0.915 moments ago. Done with it. The net loss about RM1k playing with it. Hmm ...

12.45 pm : I m having my holida, actually. But since I hv cleared KLSE ... I want to relax. So, I will off my pc and off for holiday for few days!! Till I m back ...

happy trading.

TEH


TEH

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