Saturday, January 31, 2009
1. Take the interests from ASB to clear ALL the remaining credit card balance.
2. Cut off ASTRO in end of FEB once the contract expires.
3. Get sponsorships and advertisement for my blog.
4. Monitoring the personal financial cash-flows.
5. Re-finance my apartment with lower rate and longer period.
6. Start to trade SGX and reduce holdings in KLSE.
7. Go beyond SGX ... look into NYSE.
8. Start the canteen business in our new campus.
9. Use EPF to shop for a landed-house through auctions.
10. Convert my unit trusts to bonds or better still, CASH.
11. Change OSK to other cheaper broker house or e-trade.
12. Sell some of 'unwanted' items online or other means.
13. Get others to donate toys/clothes for my girl and boy.
14. Be VERY prudent and thrifty. Rooms for improvement.
15. Start 'free' financial classes for my students and friends.
16. To promote myself for tuition and my 'financial' classes.
17. Rent out my beach-apartment as a resort.
18. --- to be added---
Check list : Re-writing for 1st Feb
1. ASB interests taken and being used for angpow-giving but the angpows received will be used to clear my remaining credit-card balance.
2.Decided not to cut Astro as I do need Bloomberg and CNBC.
3.Doing that now and working on it --- anyone wanna sponsor my blog? Hehe
4. Yup, exception for this month high expenses due to CNY.
5.Done that --- written in to Maybank for new loan package, otherwise I will refinance it.
6. Yes, doing that next week once get a green light from CIMB(hopefully).
7.New York, here I come.
8.Well, could only confirm in March.
9.EPF ... yes, currently looking into more banks auctions for landed properties.
10.Done that too ... UT into bonds. Withdrawing all once I m ready to shoot.
11.Changed to CIMB, will look into Jupiter, written an e-mail requesting about it.
12.NOT DONE ANYTHING YET. DO CHECK.
13.Told a few of my colleagues with kids.
14.YES, room for improvements.
15.No response from students to learn basic finances. But, JL my first student!!
16.Tuition classes more or less packed. Monday to Sunday.
17.NOTHING DONE YET TOO.
18.Start to convince a few who trust me to place small amount of CASH for my investment plans this year and next year, with guaranteeing them 5% interest per annum. Start with my family, in-laws or good friends. JL too, may be.
19. ---to be added further ---
AFTER stuffing ourselves celebrating the Year of the Ox, everyone will want to share bull about 2009.
The year 2008 has certainly been a remarkable one, a year that George Soros says marked a 60-year cycle when the whole world will change. A feng shui master said the same thing of 1997.
After a fantastic bull run from March 2003 to October 2007, global equity markets turned and fell on average 36% in the US, 43% in Japan, 45% in the euro area. China A-shares fell 65%, Hong Kong fell 48%, as did Thailand, Taiwan, and Singapore.
Two remarkable features: the stock markets are highly synchronized with each other; and the overall volatility doubled in 2008. The year 2008 was one where you could not hide.
You would have lost money in almost any equity, bond, commodity or derivatives, except in gold (up 3.6%) or global bonds denominated in US dollars (up 12.3%).
Hedge funds lost nearly a quarter, if you can redeem your funds and they are not run by Madoff.
After you deducted handling fees and also credit risks, chances are you did not make money on gold and bonds either.
How much you suffered would depend on your portfolio distribution.
The Japanese flow of funds showed that Japanese households hold 53% in cash and deposits (which earn zero interest), 8% in stocks (which lost 48%), 7% in bonds and mutual funds (which yield not more than 1.2% per year) and the rest in pension and insurance funds (which also lost money in 2008).
What do Japanese savers survive on?
US households, on the other hand, hold 13.5% in bank deposits, 21% in bonds and mutual funds, 33% in equity and 28% in insurance and pension funds.
Since US households hold much more in equity, they lost more in 2008.
In fact, the latest flow of funds data showed that between the end of September 2008 and December 2007, US households lost US$7.1 trillion worth of net worth, equivalent to 11% of their net wealth or nearly 51% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Of this, 35% was lost in value of home real estate and the balance in the equity market, either directly or indirectly through mutual funds, insurance companies or pension funds.
This balance sheet deflation is almost identical to the Japanese experience from 1989 to today.
The Japanese basically replaced a deflated real estate bubble and stock market bubble with a bond market bubble, because the pump-priming made a huge government debt of 195% of GDP.
If you keep on pump-priming, you create a debt market trap, because increases in interest rates would put pressure on the exchange rate and cause the stock market, real estate market and the bond market to deflate further. This is why Japan has to maintain a zero interest rate policy.
Now the US has the same policy. In December 2008, economists Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff relooked at their 2007 paper on the experience of past financial crises.
They found that on average, the real estate markets decline 35% over six years. Since the US housing market has so far declined 20%, there may be another 15% to go. Equity markets declined 55% over 3½ years. Since the US market has adjusted 36% in 2008, there may be another 20% to go.
The output decline would be an average of 9% over two years and unemployment would rise to 7% over four years.
After years of excess credit, the US households will now have to adjust. However, they are very important because their consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP and 20% of world GDP. Wal-Mart just announced a very flat Christmas sales, with international sales declining by 10% in the five weeks, whereas US sales were still up around 4%. Remember that the annual sales of Wal-Mart are about US$400bil, or nearly 3% of US GDP.
The US imported US$2.3 trillion worth of goods last year. So if in one year, the US consumer lost one tenth of his net worth, it would not be surprising if consumption falls very sharply. After spending the last 20 years building up the Global Supply Chain for the American consumer, Asians will find very sharp adjustments. Taiwan exports fell 42% year-on-year in December, which means the electronics business is really feeling the downturn.
All this means that the adjustment will be tougher and longer than all of us have anticipated. But don’t expect too much of US President Barack Obama. Even he is trying to prepare everyone for tough times.
Datuk Seri Panglima Andrew Sheng is adjunct professor at Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, and Tsinghua University, Beijing. He has served as adviser and chief economist to Bank Negara, deputy chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission
What does it takes to be as knowledgable and as good as you are now?
*(I need to remind others and my friend JL that I m ONLY one year in KLSE and with only 20% knowledge, so ... I m NOT good at all in my trading/investment. Please understand that a ONE YEAR experience doctor, lecturer, engineer or what-so-ever could NOT claim they are good and experienced, right?? You work in an accounting firm as Financial Consultant(with degree in Finance Management), will you be able to advise large companies on their financial prospects? THINK!!)*
I thought about it for a while, trying to recall what I have done to be where I m now. There were simply too many pointers and over-helming if I need to list out things I have done RIGHT or MISTAKES I have erred. Then, I concluded that the answer should be MINDSET.
Your MINDSET determines your success in almost everything you do, particularly things related to USING BRAIN. Many things we are doing we need to use of BRAIN. The ways you see things are VERY IMPORTANT as that is your MENTALITY. You may be smart enough to KNOW it, or otherwise ... you maywant to remain being 'dumb' refusing to KNOW yourself.
Wrestling in WWF is NOT one of them. That is one of the brainless "entertainers" flexing muscles, and of coz we have many ridiculously stupid human watching it for hours(even to BUY its DVD), enjoying the violence in front of their kids!! The one earning MONEY is the man behind the management who exploits the stupidity of the whole society. That is HUGE business they are dealing with here. To add to the "fun", they will get those sexily clad females to talk rough, talk dirty and of coz showing their "assets". Human, particularly MALE love these. Simple MONEY making concepts : Exploit on the weakness of general male. They fantasizing of huge muscles(and they thought female loves muscles!!), lean body, ability to WHACK someone with their fists or kick-ass. They will be IMAGINING themselves doing stuff that beyond themselves in reality, and REALITY is painful ... hence, this is just ONE of the many of their escapade venues.
MINDSET about MONEY. How do you view MONEY is VERY important in trading/investing as we are dealing with MONEY. Every click of the mouse, I m transferring MONEY, buy or sell to someone. Demand/Supply took place and the one with stronger, yet right MINDSET shall prevail. This the MOST essential FIRST step if you ever think of benefitting from your investment. HOW far you could open your narrowed-mind(due to years of brain-washing from your surrounding people), the journey is in your control.
Say, you are those FEW smart ones(like JL) who understand this SIMPLE yet powerful money-welcoming concept, then you will have a head-start compared to MANY MANY(80% of our society) who still struggling internally regarding MONEY.
Therefore, CHANGE the way you see about money, and the WEALTH will be with you!! Am I guaranteeing you that?? Nope ... loooong way to go, but that is the FIRST STEP, in my opinion. Placing a good and right foundations are my KEY of learning and educating myself. No point you speak about Bollinger Bands(for those TA) or what EPS/PE/NTA values mean(for those FA) when you can't even UNDERSTAND you must MASTER your own mindset ... and taking advantage of the HERD MENTALITY.
This is again and again being said BUT human habits are hard to break. We have our new year resolutions at the beginning of the year(and done that YEARLY) but HOW many % of those with NEW YEAR RESOLUTIONS really follow through certain % of their OWN resolutions. You may see in as GOALS.
"Herd" = Majority.
As I have pointed out that 80% of them are losing MONEY in markets, WHY would you be just one of them? IT DOESNT make any sense to me, but I recognised that MAJORITY will NOT make sense when it comes to MONEY. MONEY is a TABOO issue NOT to be known by others!! Not even your salary or income should be known by anyone, including your spouses!! WOW!! Also, MONEY that we spend ... many of the "HERDS" like to BUY things they ill-afford to SHOW OFF. WOW!! Amazing, isnt it?
MONEY is really EMOTIONALLY attached to all of us ... that we follow the HERDS without questioning!! If we do question about the "LOGIC", we will be seen as STUPID, WEIRDO ... all sort of names I could 'feel' people brand others for NOT being in the HERD. haha ...
I should know better as I defied human stupidity, but in return I m branded as STUPID. Haha. To me, it is a great joke and contradiction. I seems to always AGAINST the HERD in almost anything I do, as I m strong enough to accept their ignorance or lack of understanding of things they do, especially relating to MONEY. I should know too as I was one of them!!
Yes, in conclusion ... we do NOT think logically when it comes to money on how the money moves, how we could earn more by reducing our expenses and how we use our savings to INVEST intelligently. It is wealth accumulation ... then, we still have to educate ourselves about wealth management. Incredible ... we are graduates, but we are NEVER being taught such basic concepts of personal finance. An economy lecturer could speak to you about other country demand-supply or economy situations, but fail in "micro-economy" in their own personal sense.
See it this way ... your whole family is MACRO and you individually is MICRO. Then, the economic lecturer will be considered as SMART enough to apply what he/she has been preaching to ALL his/her students. Is making money Science or Arts? Neither. It is BOTH, in my opinion.
Are you still with me? I m answering him ONE MILLION DOLLAR question. You may NOT trust me, but I believe he is convinced that right investing MINDSET is the initial step. We have not even speak about profitting from markets. Please understand that MONEY WILL COME TO YOU when you have the RIGHT mentality about MONEY.
I want to quote from REMNANT888's blog : Be the person who move the MONEY, not being moved by MONEY. Heard of it before? THINK over it deeply ... are you moving the money or the money moving you? Do you feel tempted to BUY that latest car and trade your car(with huge % losses) and tighten your belts monthly to pay the BANK for that new car? How low your FQ could be? Ignore me if you are the 20% those rich ones, or those 80% who still struggling about finances but refuse to listen.
Belinda Carlisle - (We Want) The Same Thing
IQ : Visit http://www.highiqsociety.org/ to test your IQ.
General Malaysians have an average IQ of 98. But, as you could be reading these lines, I shall place your IQ above 105 easily. Go to the site above for a free IQ test(you don't have to LIE or show anyone) ... if your IQ above 120, I will be glad as you will be more able to read my lines with better understanding and also could comprehend better any books you read. If your IQ above 127, they will provide you with free IQ analysis and invite you to be the elite of the HIGH IQ society. Interesting? Hehe ...
Now, you DO NOT need to have high IQ to gain very much from investing. That is FACT. So, dont worry too much about IQ. I m pointing this out as many professionals(especially young ones) with considerable high IQ could NOT use their ability to think/analyse when it comes to MONEY. But, the higher your IQ, I could at least find it easier to explain some concepts which might be too "complex" for your brain capacity. I know I sound arrogant when I mentioned IQ to JL yesterday. He is a doctor, could even relate how he deal with his patients with economies ... so, I will rate his IQ as high.
A high IQ person has a slight advantage : He/she could analyse fast, see beyond things that "normal IQ" person could see, could understand things in faster rate ... and yes, know how to relate two different situations and see the similarities. This is an advantage but not huge over others. Believe me that my idol Buffett might not has the highest of IQ but smartest(so far la) person in investing successfully for decades!!
EQ : This is related to your EMOTIONS. You can't say you DO NOT have emotions towards money. It could be obsession(greed), love and hate, fear of its evil roots ... MONEY will make us VERY emotional. I have "trained" myself to be immuned of money since I was in Uni year.
During 97/98 crisis, many lost A LOT of money in KLSE. Many contemplating taking their lives as they feel that they lost 'everything'. Note that it is currently happening in MANY countries, particularly in China or those involved in Mad-off Ponzi scheme. Or in any GET-RICH scheme. WHY such a scheme could go far and making its "investors" BELIEVE they could get-rich-fast? WHO won't want to get RICH, real RICH FAST? Fast track your fiinancial brain? Don't you think so it VERY much involving EMOTIONS here? So, are you good in controlling your emotion when it comes MONEY? Your EQ becoming very crucial when it comes to taking control of our emotion. Being in CONTROL is VERY crucial when we make decision in our trading and/or investing decisions. When to BUY what ... and WHY?
I m seeing the dive in markets as HUGE crisis-opportunities for anyone who know-how to take advantage on the situation. So, I m EMOTIONALLY charged ... excite by some economic news, listening to the flow of news ... but I m NOT sitting here blogging without have the control of my emotions. I have mixed feeling about the whole global economic situations, actually. While I know I could be in-FOCUS about my plans and get too excited about it, I m also feeling "pitiful" as I could NOT share with so many around me about this opportunities!! I could only TRY to convince them that all these "bad" years 2008-2010 will be my BEST years in my wealth accumulation stage. How I wish they will listen. Well, at least my friend JL starts to listen ... and sharing my 'experiences', and seeing HUGE opportunities ahead of us ... we share THE SAME THING --- a goal to be financially free.
Perhaps I could start to charge tuition fees from my readers? haha. No free lunches, remember? In 3 or 4 years time, YES ... I will charge those come to me for knowledge, once I establish myself ... and proven that my hard-work really works? Do you think so? Hmm .... I don't know but I will continue to listen to those know-how and learn ...
FQ : With IQ + EQ, we need to increase our knowledge about MONEY. That will be FQ. YES, our EDUCATION system teaching us to be EMPLOYEES. Do read "Rich dad, Poor dad". That was one of my first MONEY-related book. It did not write about MONEY, actually but enlightening us about our EDUCATION system where we could never free ourselves FINANCIALLY ... and retire young IF we wanted to. We will be so-called stuck in our job routines and most of us DENYING that we work for survival ... or for the salary!! You may be a highly-paid manager or a simple lecturer like me. We still depends on our salary to keep-up with our lifestyle, agree?
In order for us to be better-off than our colleagues or people surrounding us financially, we need to INCREASE our FQ. This is NOT in-born. IQ might be(but can be increased too) and EQ could be developed. FQ could be cultivated and re-learn ... take me as an example!! Hehe ...
So, we need to have at least certain level of IQ, maturing to increase our EQ and we should look into to increase our FQ. I wish all the best ... and since I m giving "tuition" to JL, I will write about what I m sharing with him(only to certain extent as it will be too lengthy and boring for punters brain!! Haha).
I shared with him my 5-year plan just now. This is the first time I shared with anyone at all. NOt even my wife know about my plans. WHY? Because my surrounding people are "normal" IQ with NOT strong EQ and quite a low FQ. It is not really possible to share with them.
My 5-year plan
Year 1 : Change mindset. Earn as much as capitals. Learn to trade/invest KLSE.
Year 2 : Trade in foreign markets. Learn put/call options. Invest in US.
Year 3 : Look into to BUY property and learn to invest.
Year 4 : Wealth Management.
Year 5 : Teach 'investing' concepts. Have my own training center.
DRYS at 7.30, still moving down, losing 15% at the moment. GE at 12.34 losing 3%. C at 3.75.
2 am : DOW still able to breathe above 8000-level. Tho many bad economics data are out, DOW still able to hold-on at the moment. I heard/read about Kodak, Hitachi, Starbuck, etc etc or Caterpillar. I m definitely much more into US economic news and global in general. NOT zooming into any stock just yet, but I will like to wait for another HUGE dive in DOW before looking into the NEXT rebound, if any. DOW at 7000 or below is what I have in mind. Besides, USD is still strengthening.
Yes, for those in KLSE ... I will not be able to write about counters in KLSE next week onwards as I m no longer at KLSE. I do still look into KLCI, of coz, as I will be learning to trade FKLI, another alternative market. FKLI certainly more "exciting" in bear market. I do hope I could survive the journey there. Hmmm ...
I was sharing with my doc-friend yesterday for 3rd day ... and hope his engine is warm enough for him to take the wheel. Yes, he gets to see me trading LCL live yesterday, seeing me speaking with my OSK dealer. BTW, I released WCT-wb too early and too busy entertaining my students to catch WCT-wb momentum. I guess my OSK dealer was excited and wondered HOW I LUCKILY guess to punt into WCT-wb on Thu without hesitation and it zooms up to 0.215, up almost 20%. Well, I don't answer anyone ... iincluding my dealer or my doc-friend on HOW I punt into WCT-wb or any stocks.
But, I do share with my doc-friend that IF you know-how, you will gain the confidence to trade WITHOUT emotion. For basic, I let him know that I m looking for top20 active counters of the week ... also, show him my stalk-lists(I break into 4 lists) ... and show him a simple way I chart the graphs to determine the momentum with my trading plan. I m trying to make it SIMPLE but it is definitely NOT. I was just practising my trading mind, since I m having holiday from Wed to Fri. Yes, I do wish to stay at home next week and I could continue to monitor the markets to gain a bit extra income.
For next week, my trading method will be different. I will not have the luxury of looking at the market closely(as I m working and having 4 hours classes in the morning and another 4 hours of tuition classes till night) ... FKLI will be more appropriate for me, besides I want to LEARN in playing with derivative markets.
Anyway, my doc-friend knew me close enough to TRUST me and I won't mind showing him what I have been doing for past 13 months and going to do this coming 6 months with my research on ENERY stocks. These are all hard-work ... so, I will ignore those punters coming here to ask "Tenaga at rm6 can buy or not?". I could only pity those still floating in KLSE for years now. So, I do hope there is a REALISATION that I m taking a long-difficult path, and will continue to be labour till I can claim I "know-how". At the moment, NO ONE should listen to me ... except my FIRST student, my doc-friend. Hehe. No free lunches ... so, I m getting free lunches from him, literally. Haha
2.15 am : DOW down 50 points. International Paper below USD10.
6.15 am : DOW down 150points to closed at 8000 level. Nice. It will be testing 8000 level next week and if the down slide momentum continues, many global markets will follow suits, including KLSE. That shall make those in FKLI excited as we are going to bet on it to go down. Hehe.
David Cook - Light On
1. BAC 6.58
Friday, January 30, 2009
I m not saying the books mis-lead many newbies and novices. But, the BUY and HOLD concepts should ONLY be applied when market is BOTTOMING and/or BULL markets in play.
Take Tenaga as an example : Tenaga at RM6.00 level now. Say, you LIKE this counter(blue chip, utility, low PE, gov-supported etc etc) and want to INVEST in this counter. Will you BUY and HOLD now? IF you think KLSE has bottom, and Tenaga with strong support at 5.85 has reached it bottom ... then, yes ... PLACE 100% of your funds into it as you are BUYING at the cheapest rate(that is BOTTOM means, ok?). How long will you need to hold? Perhaps 3 years, but you need to be sure that economies is RECOVERING now.
On the other hand, if you(like me) DO NOT believe that markets have reached bottom, and DO NOT believe in BUY & HOLD(for too long), then you will NOT buy Tenaga at rm6. I might monitor KLCI and Tenaga prices in weekly basis - and will start to collect when it is ALMOST at its bottom(you still have the TIME to learn how to see indicators and locating the BOTTOM, of just continue to read news or watch Bloomberg).
A smarter one will BUY Tenaga slowly with increasing amounts and once it reverses, placing the last bullets and shoot it BIG. ALL the funds available. Yes, you will be gaining HUGE. This is just a simple investing IDEA ... please check further with those know-how. I m only with 1-yr KLSE experience, ok? Once it is moving higher, I will swing-trade it to gain much more rather than just lazily BUY and HOLD. You may double or triple your money in 3-5 years time. No one can assure you that, but I won't mind guiding those who wish to learn, ok?
9.05 am : Last day of trading for month of Jan. It is Friday, and with REDS everywhere, those who bought anything yesterday have to brace themselves today, me included. Hmm ...
9.10 am : KLCI losing 5 points, at 878 now.
9.20 am : I sensed fear in KLSE(874) as many taking-profits(or small losses). Evermas at 0.075 and Ranhill at 0.80. Also, LCL at 0.485. So, call me LUCKY to escape with minor injuries with Evermas and Ranhill but LUCKY punt on my LCL.
How about WCT-wb at 0.18 now? I hv average of 0.185, u know. Or IOI-cj at 0.17(mine is 0.175)? Then, you call me UNLUCKY then. Hmm ... Gong Xi Gong Xi ... wish you LUCK, then. We all need it when we playing cards/mahjong with our friends or going up to Genting for a 'fix'. Of coz, many q-ing at ToTo or Magnum at the moment. Hmm ... LUCK = 6, in Hokkien.
9.30 am : Someone bought 222,200 units of Kinstel minutes ago (=RM89,991).
9.40 am : I bought more WCT-wb during opening at 0.18, placing to clear at 0.19 ... DONE minutes ago and up at 0.195 now!! Wow!! I do not expect it to be up strongly so sudden. So, yes ... I m 6-ky. Hehe. It might break 0.20 ... but please understand that I DO NOT KNOW it will go up 0.195 or 0.20, ok? When I bought more at 0.18, i saw it touched 0.175, with REDS everywhere(I was looking at its mother too, of coz). So, placing to clear at 0.19 and profit about RM350 in a day trade, I m glad and NOT greedy, ok? This is the 3rd time I profitted from WCT-wb, fyi. :-)
I have also bought more into IOI-cj at 0.17, taking my average to 0.1725, q-ing to clear at 0.18 to gain about another RM350.
10.05 am : I was away helping my wife washing our Kancil. hehe. Nothing much in KLSE except GPacket still in play. I m saying in PLAY as traders are playing with it, not BUY and HOLD la, please.
11.45 am : Cleared IOI-cj at 0.18(3ok units) and 0.175(20k). Profit slightly less than RM350 I estimated this morning.
12.15pm : KLCI at 880, awaiting lunch.
7.30 pm : KLCI closed slightly higher at 884.45. FTSE up 5points. I was away ... so, I didnt notice to catch WCT-wb!! Wow. But I bought LCL at 0.49 ... that is the only bite in my baits.
10.05 pm : Obama blasted on the outrageous USD18.4 billions of bonuses given. Hmm ... US really a land of opportunities? I m tired. Night.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
1.15 am : DOW down by 150points, due to housing data and job-cuts data.
1.30 am: GE at 12.85. Someone in my chat-box was asking at what price I will consider GE as cheap? Tho I have mentioned it many of times, I m going to write a little more about my view about his question.
Firstly, I DO NOT focusing on ANY stocks in US(or ANYwhere at all, except some in KLSE) ... not GE or anything, to be honest. So, I m not so sure what stocks at what prices, ok? I have NOT even get the approval from CIMB and it is still pending. I will be using my CIMB to trade SGX, HKSE and/or US. And US market will definitely NOT in my mind YET at the moment.
Secondly, I m currently just started my research about Alternative Energy(AE) globally, particularly in US. So, generally ... I have NOT zoom in into any particular stocks, just yet. GE and SI in my stalking list as both are involved in AE projects. Many more and my stalking list is becoming longer(about 8 companies at the moment). Read me right, it is a RESEARCH. Until I know what is actually going on ... I will NOT INVEST huge part of my funds into the company. I will be placing my 'eggs in ONE basket'. A lot more homeworks need to be done before I could even think of GE.
Thirdly, I think markets have NOT see the worst YET. As many analysts putting global economies(particularly US) will only see some lights at the end of this year, equity markets might see recovery around AUG 2009. But, NO ONE will want to put their heads out to predict exactly WHEN and WHERE the bottom is. NO ONE know, actually. We are into something we never seen or experienced before in our lifetime!! That gives us the FEAR that economies might NOT recover(more gloom all over) or the economic downturn might take longer that many have predicted. I m listening to SOROS, he spoken "logically" in Davos yesterday.
Bloomberg : Buying PHYSICAL gold-bars? That is what billionaires wanting to put in their saves!! Serious? GOLD prices will shooting up this year ...
Read this article
A depressive tornado of Fortune 500 failures, massive stock declines, spiraling interest rates, the crashing home values, and inflation means you'll have to earn at least 40% just to get to where you were in January 2008!
This is no time to sit back and wait for trouble to pass. These are dangerous times whether you own stocks, money market funds, or keep your money under a mattress.
And it's not over, not by a long shot.
Make the correct choices now and you can secure an income that puts everything you want, from luxury vacations to worry-free retirement, within your reach, growing your wealth safely 10-12% per year.
Make the wrong choices and you'll see your wealth swirling down the drain, the casualty of forces so unusual that hardly anyone alive today has experienced them before.
2.05 am : DOW down 200 points. We will expect KLSE to be lower later-on. My buyings yesterday might get 'stucked' for the time being.
7.20 am : DOW lost 226 points with ASX in reds too. KLSE will move down ... oh boy!!
Malaysia in better position than most countries
HONG KONG: Blessed with natural resources, Malaysia is in a better position than most countries in the current grim economic environment, according to Jim Rogers, the co-founder of the Quantum Fund.
“The Malaysian economy is natural resource-based so you are in a better position than many countries. And therefore, your currency is better positioned than other currencies,” Rogers told The Edge Financial Daily on the sidelines of the Asian Financial Forum yesterday.
“My main problem with Malaysia is that your politicians don’t seem to get it right. It’s a fabulous country and it should have a fantastic future. Get politicians who understand how the economy works and adapt and adjust. Malaysia should be and could be a wildly successful and rich country,” he added.
Rogers founded the Quantum Fund — one of the first international hedge funds — with George Soros in 1970. Speaking in his keynote address during a luncheon at the Asian Financial Forum on Monday, Rogers reiterated his belief in commodities.“Fundamentals for a lot of industries are impaired currently. But, things that are not impaired are commodities.
The fundamentals of commodities in the current environment are enhanced as supplies are short,” said Rogers, adding that the idea of making money today is through investments in raw materials and commodities.
He is also bullish on the yen but is bearish on the US dollar, bonds and stocks. “I’m not buying into any markets right now because there are problems still to come,” he said.
8.55 am : KLSE pointing upwards in early trade ... we shall watch, while I m clearing Evermas and LCL I bought yesterday. Hmm ...
9.10 am : LCL cleared at 0.51. Done(>10% profit ... to pay for my angpows! hehe)
12.10 pm : Cut off Ranhill at 0.84/0.835 just now. Still q-ing to clear Evermas. Hmm ... I was away to SGX, actually.
My trades with LCL and Ranhill(to dpc : Please DO NOT read blogs to buy/sell, my advice)
LCL : Yesterday, I wrote about LCL, after busy with Evermas ... I look into LCL as it dived down. It touched 0.41(don't tell me you KNOW 0.41 was yesterday intra-day bottom, otherwise ... can I call you si-fu, please?) ... and when it was as 0.43, I started to analyse its movements, charts and prices. Of coz, prior to this, i do know clearly their business in Middle-east etc etc and WHY LCL prices being battered badly, just that I DO NOT KNOW at what price is the bottom. Besides, I m no longer interested with KLSE as my playground. Hmm ....
Now, at 0.45 ... I DO NOT hesitate to BUY 5k units for a start. As it moves further up, I accumulate further 15k at 0.46. Please calculate the average price, ok?(If u don't even know hoow to calculate the average price, PLEASE DO NOT GET INTO ANY MARKETS ... get 2 years of education in simple Maths(take tuition) and change your punt-ing characters). Fine.
Then, I DO NOT look into KLSE as I m done ... just reading US and Japan economic news while reading a book entitled "A Rogue Investors". This morning, the queue of LCL was at 0.48, so ... I m planning to clear, and LUCKILY placing it at 0.51 and managed to clear ALL.
At 0.45 x 5,000 = RM 2,250 and 0.46 x 15,000 = RM 6,900. Total BUY = RM 9,150.
At 0.51 x 20,000 = RM 10, 200. Total SELL = RM 10, 200.
Total gross profit : RM 10, 200 - RM 9,150 = RM1,050.
Net profit : RM1,050 minus (OSK brokerage fees + stamp duties la).
Now, I do not buy only at 0.45, but also at 0.46 ... I was so busy with my readings and ASX, SGX and others ... tell me, do u think I m OBLIGED to write everything I m doing here for PUNTERS to BUY?? Silly, right? So, until you understand what is EDUCATION, you do not catch what I m doing. Besides, I might be just BLUFF-ing ... so, it will be too RISKY to read blogs to BUY/SELL any stocks. I don't know how most of those in KLSE brains(if any) works ... but I will continue to educate MYSELF through my own blog!! Good luck to others.
Ranhill : I bought 3500 units of RH last week at 0.865. It touched 0.88(I think). Then, as it went down-hill and I bought another 3500 units at 0.845, and averaging at 0.855. Today, situation is NOT good, and so I cleared it at 0.840 and 0.835, just now.
BUY : 0.855 x 7000 = RM5985. SOLD : 0.840 x 3000 + 0.835 x 4000 = RM5860.
LOSS : RM125 + OSK fees + stamp duties.
3.10 pm : KLCI at 885. I have done with WCT-wb at 0.185. It moved from 0.165 ... and I don't know if I could catch the momentum ... hu-hu .. I m tired chasing la. Hmm ...
3.30 pm : Bought some IOI-cj at 0.175(market price, not q-ing). Sold Evermas at 0.085 for small loss. Hmm ...
10.10 pm : KLCI closed at 883.16. I was away 'coaching' my doctor-friend and got a free dinner. Just came back from sharing with him a little of HOW I started from ground ZERO, placing strong foundations and very discipline to follow my investing/trading plans. Too many things I wanted to share, but I know i need to be slow with him. There are plenty of homeworks for him already to learn "HOW money moves?"
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
It's really no secret how bad things have gotten...
Investors lost $6.9 trillion of investment money in 2008...
2008 capped the worst year in the labor market since World War II, with the jobless rate hitting over 8% and...
Last year bankruptcy filings among publicly traded companies rocketed 74%...
http://www.weforum.org/ <--- DAVOS 2009.
3.05 am : DOW up 180 points with banking/financial stocks lead the way ahead of Obama's stimulus package and Geithner was speaking about not 'nationalising' the banks. Tho the market rallying, it is NOT sustainable, in my opinion. So, I m agreeing with some "doom" analysts pointing that the worst is yet to come.
4.05 am : DOW rallying up 200 points. FTSE up 2.4% with banking stocks lead the way.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Here's How You'll Know the Market Has Bottomed
By Tom Dyson
Don carries a tape measure on his belt. A yellow pencil lives behind his ear. And to get from one end of his yard to the other, he drives a forklift truck...
Don entered the lumber business in 1979. In his 30-year career in the lumber-distribution business, he has worked for both the huge national lumber distributors and the small regional suppliers. He's also worked through two major construction busts... in 1979-81 and 1990-91.
Today, Don is general manager of a $100 million lumberyard based near Orlando, Florida.
I figure, if we're going to see evidence of inflation, it's going to show up first in building products. This was the first industry to crater back in 2005. It should be the first industry to complete the cycle.
Also, the Fed has aimed its printing press at the real estate market. The government thinks the falling real estate market is driving the recession and the credit crunch. If it can get the real estate market rising again, it thinks it'll be able to beat deflation and solve all our problems. So any signs of life in the real estate market will validate the Fed's strategy and generate a burst of optimism in the stock market.
Every month, Don tells me what he thinks is going on in the industry and updates me on the prices of lumber, sheet wall, concrete sidings, and other building products. These prices come straight from the manufacturers. Prices peaked in October 2005. Since then, many materials have fallen in price over 50%. I just got Don's latest e-mail last week. It's shocking how prices have jumped...
•Plywood rose 9.9%.
Don creates a Whole House Commodity Price Index with this information. It's the price of materials to build a 2,250 square-foot wood-frame house. It doesn't include labor, decor, plumbing, electrical, or mechanical materials. In November, Don's Whole House Commodity Index was up 1% percent, to $23,773.
"Every major supplier in drywall, roofing, insulation, insulation board, steel studs, cement board, and most of the miscellaneous building material categories have announced increases in cost from 7%-10%," says Don.
It's still too early to make conclusions on Don's pricing data. I suspect many companies realize they'll go out of business if they keep selling their products at a loss. So they've raised their prices out of desperation. In other words, these prices aren't a reflection of demand and supply. They're a sign of capitulation in the building materials industry... and we're about to see some major bankruptcies.
Let's give Don's building prices three more months. If they stick, it's a sign the Fed's strategy might be starting to work. And that should mark a bottom for stocks. If building prices don't rise, we'll be in for more deflation...
California homes prices down 42%. Wow ... shall we go there for some properties shopping? hehe.
Guiding a newbie
I have a chance to meet a friend of mine. He is a doctor by profession. Being in early 30s, and considered as 'new' in his line, he is working at a medical center in KK here. Well, as we all know, doctors(or any professionals ... including engineers, lecturers ... ), they are quite well paid, generally, but they are still under employee-category. So, they DO NOT have high FQ. In other words, they have vague idea of how money moves. Most of them are not investing in stock markets.
Here is what a senior doctor advised his colleague(including my friend) about where you should place your MONEY this year, in the midst of financial crisis. BUY Unit Trust if you never buy any before as it is at "cheap rate" now. Cheap sales, in other words. But, for those who bought and holding to Unit Trust for quite some time, you may want to change it to Bonds this year.
Tell me ... what is NOT so wise here? I could only shake my head with the un-informed financially society. So, i began with giving him some simple idea what Unit Trust is. Most of them don't really have much idea HOW Unit Trust works, and by listening to the sale-persons, you definite WILL NOT get the actual picture. Wait .. these sales-persons are WORKING for their banks/finance companies, NOT YOU. Many of them are YOUNG executives, who just graduated from some uni(many of my students in this line too!!) and selling UT(or other financial products) and earn some commisions from the sales!!
Amazing ... you mean DOCTORS will listen to these sales-person ... and trust their MONEY in Unit Trust? Amazing, right? Years of education(and lots of money spent) to get the doctor-degree, but almost ZERO idea about how money moves? They are well paid, driving 'cool' cars and staying in nice houses. Some might be a little better by investing in PROPERTY or some doing business(opening a clinic?) ... but majority of them will be working in hospitals/medical centers ... HOW and where you 'park' your MONEY will make you different from your colleagues. In this case, it could get you VERY RICH and financially FREE.
So, he is excited to hear me giving him some guidance regarding what we should generally do with our money. Firstly, only those with NO KNOWLEDGE about investment will lazily place their money in Unit Trust(or FD) and let others HAPPILY roll their money and give them SMALL % to keep them as customers!! You have no say or control on HOW they invest your OWN money, see? While you continue to work and work, your money NOT working for you!!
Stock Markets?? No way ... I m NOT recommending a simple equity market for my friend. But, I m telling him to get EDUCATED about general how MONEY moves. Well, any NEWBIES should think of educating themselves about investments. It is easier to explain to him(compared to many many more newbies) as he did play with the idea of stock-markets, but has been very conservative with his money. He read some books before, but never really started anything much. Perhaps, I could start the engine for him, but he still needs to learn how to DRIVE himself. I believe in "Teach the person to FISH and not GIVING him a fish". Hence, never come in my blog here and ask "Genting at 3.70 level or Tenaga at 6.00 level can buy and keep or not??". I will see you as STUPID punters who will never want to learn about investing in stock-markets or never interested to LEARN anything at all about lives!!
Well, with a good guidance and actual FACTS without hidden agenda(tell me, what am I gaining from sharing with my readers what my mind is thinking about about my Trading Adventure??). I do get satisfactions that I have "helped" to guide a good friend in his personal financial planning. I might get free-lunches(went to his house for lunch yesterday, actually. hehe) from many that I helped when they benefited from my 'lectures' or my blog.
I mean GOOD ... tho I might be mean, at times. I do not wish to rub salt in your wounds but only through PAINS, we should get up, and be STRONGER!! You may take my trading adventure as an inspiration ... as I have NOT acheived my GOAL ... as it is a 5-year GOAL planning. I m only in my second year. Remember, we spend 3-5 years to get our degree(some more if they pursue to Master/PHD level) ... we need to give ourselves TIME to learn from ground ZERO. I WAS from there in DEC2007 ... so, have I motivated you enough to get started?? My doctor-friend is ... hehe
Finally, he said I have the attitudes and characters to succeed in my investing plans. Hmm ... I did tell him that I have this BLOG, do read(he might be reading now! hehe). He is much more convinced than any of the readers here as he knew me PERSONALLY and his wife was my ex-colleague for 5 years! I was using bike when I knew my wife and bought a Kancil(till today) when I married(for kids sake) and will continue to drive my Kancil HAPPILY for another 4yrs. After my plans accomplish, I m planning to retire and migrate(to OZ, may be).
DREAM on ... and WORK on it. Dreams without actions is called day-dreaming. I never said "How I wish I m a millionaire". That is too naive and stupid, in my sense. I rather channel my energy to take action --- think, plan, analyse, execute and back to re-think. Education in progress??
Again, same question : Who do you think will be SUCCESSFUL in accumulating WEALTH ... a person like me who work his a*s off, teaching from 8am to 9.30pm daily and NEVER willing to use money(capitals are for investments, buying a CAR is NOT an investment, stupid) OR the punters running around STILL asking others, which counter to BUY ar today? OR Can put money in Unit Trust ar? Hmm ... THINK.
p/s : I dont believe in free-lunches, actually. If you do, then you need to CHANGE your attitudes and chracters if you intend to be successful(in honourable and legal way).
8.35 am : KLSE opens today ... but not many will be in markets as there is still hang-over from last night dine&wine. I will only observe the index and also Ranhill ... nothing else at the moment.
8.50 am : Signals giving us KLSE will open higher ... but with low volumes.
9.10 am : KLCI at 874, up slightly with only RM5m turnover. Evermas still in play ... wanna play the 'goreng' game? It touched 0.09, up >20% just now ... THINK. Play or not?
9.15 am : Done Evermas at 0.09. Hmm ... Q-ing for 0.07. Technically Evermas broke 0.07 MA-7 last Friday, testing MA-12 at 0.085. At 0.085, it has appreciated 21% in this morning trade. Yes, TRADE not INVEST. This is merely for a punt, of coz.
9.25 am : Done more at 0.085. Hmm ... Ranhill at 0.88.
10.30 am : LCL at 0.43 ... wow. Evermas and Talam being goreng-ed but volumes are really thin(TurnOver Rm33m only)
I m placing LCL back to my radar. It touches 0.41 just now, and at 0.44 it has lost 14.5% in this morning trade. Do read my previous BUY in LCL(profit a bit from it) ... but look for a huge rebound in this counter.
10.50 am : KLCI at 875 with little volumes. So, I m playing with Evermas ... and just bought a little of LCL at 0.45. Hmmm ...
2.25 pm : KLCI closed slightly higher at 876. I m watching Evermas and LCL ... Is Ranhill going to run up the hill? Hmm ... ASX up 50.5 points today.
3.10 pm : Q-ing to buy IOI-cj ... at 0.16. Someone bought Evermas 200k units at 0.085(=RM17k). Hmm ...
3.20 pm : KLCI at 879.
3.50 pm : I was reading the book about habits of successful investors. There is a part of a section caught my attention --- we need to be RUTHLESS. Wow... it is like going to war? Haha ... of coz, it explains and not what the NORMAL brain would think of. Do read ... The Rogue Investor. Interesting book, indeed. Hmm ...
4.30 pm : KLCI at 877. Ranhill running down the hill, instead. Ai-yo, I bought a bit more at 0.845. Hmm ... cut cut cut.
5.05 pm : KLCI closed at 879.63.
6.15 pm : FTSE up ... did anyone catch the momentum in the financial stocks? WOW ... RBS, BARC, HSBA and LLOY ... hmm ... interesting to watch. Will the banks nationalised? Yeah, it is no fun by just watching and not able to participate in the excitements. Well, i will have my chances ...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
10. 10 am : Using Barron's Stock Charting, I was looking into CAT and GE at the moment. Analysing it using SMA from 200 to 12. For GE,I even lowered it to SMA-5, it is still below the line. The call at 1.9(scale of 5) by Barron, indicating a BUY but not a very strong call. Technically we shall wait till it test the SMA-12 line(at least) for us to take position.
Learning Corner : From Milan Doshi's book : page 143.
Unfortunately the majority of investors only know how to BUY; they do not know how and when to SELL.
This is what usually happens : say your broker calls you with a hot tip. Most people will take a punt and buy a few lots of the stock recommended.
Say your broker calls you and advises you to sell because the markets are turning bearish. Most people will reply:
1. I can never ever sell at a loss, or
When it comes to selling, most people will come up with all sorts of excuses not to sell. But when it comes to buying, most will buy without giving it a second thought. That's the main reason most people are unable to make money in the stock markets. They know how to buy using their heads. But they hang on and sell the stocks with their hearts or they get their emotions in the way.
TEH : The above is taken from Milan Doshi's book. Please BUY one to educate yourself. I admit I was one of those MANY beginning of last year. Tho I cut-off a little too late, I have learned that as a lesson. Now, I could speak with a little relief as I have breakeven, and beyond that stage. It is illogical, come to think about it. But, we all learned our lesson ... unfortunately, MANY MANY more will NEVER learn about investing in stock markets(and beyond).
That explains our statistics that 80% of them in KLSE losing money. You may want to DENY it or put up a strong front, but in longer run ... you MIGHT want to get matured and ADMIT your mistakes. As that is the only way to remedy your mistakes/errors/blunders/
ignorance ... and continue to EDUCATE ourselves in order to be a better investors. We all are in learning stages ... as long as we DECIDE to change our mindset.
I could only shake my head, unbelievable that tho BURSA trying to educate investors, many still REFUSE to learn. Funny ... money REALLY irrational. We can't think straight and make the LOGICAL decisions when it comes to money. Without this simple FOUNDATION, many will NEVER benefit from the huge BEAR-MARKET today. And they will start to sing the sad-song of their losses in stock markets, telling everyone HOW DANGEROUS stock market is,
6.00 pm : ASX closed 100points today ... RBS up 15% and BARC still up another 10%. Real fatt-choy if you bought into these two counters LAST WEEK. hehe.
World Economic Forum --- what will be their agenda and its effects on global equities markets?
10.35 pm : DOW up 20+ points in the opening now ... Mario Gabelli spoke about TDS and took a look at this Telecom and Data System company.
10.45 pm : DOW bullish ahead and adding 75 points now. I m interested with CAT, as it is surfing at new low level.
10.50 pm: Second stock pick by Mario is Cadbury. GE at USD13 now ... I m still waiting for CIMB to process my application!! Hope they are working tmr ... I shall withdraw my funds out of OSK tmr and shall transfer it to CIMB --- for my FKLI and foreign stock markets.
11.20 pm : DOW now in reds, losing 10+points.
Job cuts by thousands by so many big coporations in their latest annoucements. Home sales increased? Hmm ...
SI at 55. GE at 12.40 ... I m stalking this two giants. F at 1.95.
3.10 am : DOW in reds. BAC at 6.2 and C at 3.4 ... two of most actively traded stocks in US. Caterpillar making news today and lost 10% ... to its 52-week low. CAT at USD32.
KBW Bank Index(KBX) at 27.53, up from its recent14-year low of 25.3+ level.
4.35 am : DOW move back up, up 75points.
7.20 am : DOW up a little to close at 8116 but generally, it is bad data for the 4Q. The worst is yet to come ... so, we are not sure if this year we will see the bottom. So, i will like to practice PATIENCE ... wait and see approach. As I m seeing KLCI at 650 to reach the base camp, at 870 level now, it is a long way to go ...
Timothy Geithner became the 75th financial man in US. Everyone will be watching what he(with Obama) will do ... to the economic situation in US, and how these steps could boost the confidence in the investors. DOW JONES futures up ... welcoming U.S. Teasury Secretary.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Chinese horoscope ... year of OX(second of 12 in the cycle). It is not any OX as Chinese also believe in earthly elements. For those who believe in Chinese Zodiac, Chinese Astrology and Feng Shui ... it will be the time for us to look into some details in our "locations" and "surroundings". We surely want to create an edge in our Feng Shui, particularly for health & wealth, so that we could avoid pitfalls this year and to take advantage of the possible opportunities.
Year of OX - 2009-2010 : The short rally will be over soon, as more and more 4Q reports out of closet. It is very bad in UK, especially the ailing financial/banking sector. We also seen how US economy slump into deepest recession. Singapore are expecting to go through longest recession period too. Things can't be rosy this year ... in equities markets, in businesses ... to employees. So, everyone should brace themselves, and those more prepared they could ease their financial stress. On the other end, there are people getting very excited with the situations as they could take advantage and profit from it.
In 1997/1998 crisis, many lost their savings or substantial amount of money ... as many companies de-listed or go busted. At the same time, many new millionaires created as they have been patient enough to grab those opportunities. If KLSE at 300+ level and went up all the way to 1500+ level in ten-years time, many SHOULD have profitted from there(those who KNOW that buying a good stock during crisis time could gain you much).
Today, KLSE has lost about 40%(and more to come) since Jan08. At 800 level(support), we will most probably seeing another bashing and it shall move below 700. The bottom is everyone's guess but NEVER BUY and HOLD at the moment, please. Do not believe the gov and saying we will NOT be in recession. Be cautious with out investments.
This is a FATT-CHOY year ... may be not really this year, may be next year or so as the global economies might take longer time to go into the bottom, and hence to recover. No one could give you a certain answer, not even Obama. This is too huge to comprehend ... and also many events never seen in human financial history. This global financial crisis will also be written in history financial books. No one would think of Citigroup, AIG or GM to collapse 5 years ago? But, Lehman closed. Period.
If you could not be excited as I am, perhaps you still fail to see the huge opportunities. Many Malaysians are still NOT aware of the actual situation of our financial/banking health. But, slowly many will start to feel the crunches as it bites into our pockets. The hike of consumer products prices will also affect our buying power.
2.05 pm : ASX lost almost 150 points . Red angpows everywhere. We shall see how DOW re-acts tonight and tmr night too .. before KLSE re-opens. Well, many will still be in holiday, so I do expect KLSE without many activities this week, but perhaps when traders are back next week they might want to clear their positions ... and we shall see KLSE below 850.
Note that UK officially in recession and the pound is traded below RM5 now. Perhaps, it is about time that you might think of changing MYR to Pound if you are planning to go to UK or send your kids to UK for education. But, perhaps Pound may gets pounded further. But, USD strengthen ... it is above RM3.60 now. We are predicting a collapse of USD this year. I read about contradicting views regarding USD. MYR will continue to de-value. China is said to be manipulating their currency? How about YEN? Japan gov trying to de-value their currency too as it is hurting their exports?
Commodities, especially Crude Oil(and CPO for Malaysia) are closely watched ... as it is an global economic indicator. We could not really predict how LOW crude oil price could go as, again, we will be hearing contradicting views from the "experts". Many of times, no one actually know as it is NOT predictable. So, if a so-called expert said crude oil MIGHT go below USD30 in 3 months time, he is actually trying his best to give an "answer". There is NO answer in real. No one could predict WAR too(especially in the middle-east) ... no one could actually estimate the actual amount of oil-reserves in each country, and will the productions be reduced? And will they be finding new oil "sites"? How will all these affect the crude oil price? Will it be speculated to shoot up above USD100 again? We could only wait and see ... but, crude oil price is still an indicator for many equitiy markets all around the world.
6.10 pm : Look at BARC.L ... interesting and incredible!! Up 40% so far!!
7.40 pm : WOW. Barclay up 65% at the moment. Something like this won't happen in KLSE. One day trade?!!
Sunday, January 25, 2009
HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR to all. Xin Nian Kuai Le.
In the year of bear-market, hopefully we will see a stronger bull by the end of this year and the Year of TIGER will roar soon ... remember that this year is a year to accumulate your bullets, ya!!
Choi-San : God Of Wealth
To me, "choi-san" is our Financial, Economic, Investment and Wealth mentailty. You have it if you are determine to be your own "choi-san". But, knowing choi-sans will be beneficial too, I believe. hehe. Choi-San ... i welcome you. Hehe
Samuel Hui: Money Song <-- Choi San Tuo
This classic 1979 song is VERY appropriate for this year. I m not sure about many ... but as investors, we all should be VERY excited as we are deepening into a new era --- GLOBAL CRISIS. And these could be a life-time opportunity to WELCOME CHOI-SAN. When could it be most appropriate to welcome choi-san than TODAY ... Chinese New Year Eve. It is also a day where chinese all around the world will love to gather with their families and have a dinner together. Gong Xi, Gong Xi wishes ...
I m not going back to KL this year ... well, one of the reasons being EXPENSIVE aiir-tickets for CNY festive season. It will cost me about RM1.5k just for the flight. Hence, I m taking a wiser move to bring my family back to KL in my coming one week holiday in APR or in AUG. This year is NOT the year to use any money un-neccesarily. If possible, this is the year to accumulate more ammunitions for us INVESTORS to shoot(must aim betul-betul la) when the target is around the corner. In the mean time, we should sharpen our skills, may it be a sniper or a missile-launcher. Hehe ...
Yes, I m very excited as this year I will be learning another 20% of the economic concepts.
**I never really know "deflation" one year ago or can't even speak what recession is all about. Today, with my 20% knowledge, I could teach an hour class about recession, inflation vs deflation and its implications in their countries' foreign reserves!!** Hehe
This year 2009-2010 might be one in life time opportunities. Those know-hows will gain very-very much ... those like me who are still learning will gain much too, but for those ignorants we could only say ... THAT's LIFE!!
錢錢錢錢 No Money No Talk
天才白癡 - 錢錢錢 - 許冠傑 曲︰許冠傑詞︰許冠傑／
薛志雄＊成日要錢多 〔錢錢錢錢 錢錢錢錢〕
幹水乜都渦 〔錢錢錢錢 錢錢錢錢〕
借錢最折墮 〔錢錢錢錢 錢錢錢錢〕
爬低危契哥 〔錢錢錢錢 錢錢錢錢〕
＃貧賤拗頸多〔NO MONEY NO TALK, NO MONEY NO TALK〕
生仔都諗過 〔NO MONEY NO TALK, NO MONEY NO TALK〕
阿女嗌肚餓 〔NO MONEY NO TALK, NO MONEY NO TALK〕
屋租都要拖 〔NO MONEY NO TALK, NO MONEY NO TALK〕
So, for those who wish to learn how those rich ones earn money LEGALLY in investment, this blog is meant to educate US as I m still acquiring more knowledge by speaking to those who have done that. How businesses generate great-huge profits(Bill Gates?) or how Warren Buffett accumulate his wealth through investments. These top-two in the world are extreme cases, we just need to do what we are capable of, after all ... MONEY doesn't BUY us HAPPINESS? Or can it?
Happy Chinese New Year, anyway.
許冠傑 - 半斤八兩
Saturday, January 24, 2009
GE-5 yr chart showing that it has been trading at USD30-40 range before the recent dive. Time to accumulate?
General Electric : At USD12 level now, a very attractive level for long term investors. GE profit drops 46% in its latest report and its share price goes down 10%. Yes, GE is in my stalk-list as I m looking into Energy Stock that will have huge potential for investors.
10.45 pm : Scomi and LionDiv closed at 0.335. Support at 0.30, so I will look into them again at 0.30 or below.
11.30 pm : Tenaga back to RM6 level, with a support at 5.85. There was speculation that Tenaga lost billions in the forex? I do not read KLSE's news on stocks anymore. So, I m not sure ... but I do know BNM cut cut cut again the rate. I was thinking WHAT to expect with such a cut. Inflation eased but recession is VERY real. If Singapore in deep recession, UK officially declared to be in recession too, will our NEW PM going to enligthen us with the latest Economics data? Please don't be SURPRISE that we are actually already in recession but our gov are good with their magical-support hands. It is the matter of time KLSE will be DIVING!!
I bought Ranhill for the 'fun' of it. I want to see my 'luck'. If Ranhill ready to break 0.86 ... it could go to 0.95 level. Otherwise, I hv no patience but to cut it off soon!!
One more day ... bye bye to mouse? My baby girl born in year of MOUSE. My brother is year of OX(12 x 3). I need to buy a jade soon .... hmm ... night
Friday, January 23, 2009
Tech-stocks were in lime-light. Google posts profits but Microsoft cutting 5000-jobs. Intel closing 2-centers in Penang and releasing 1000-workers there. Apple(without Jobs) is currently at USD88 level. An analyst said that it is worth to look into BUYING Microsoft and Apple if you could hold for 5-10yrs period. You call, please. I won't. SI at USD57.
ASX200 opens lower this morning, losing 60points at the moment.
Richie Ren - 天涯
9.10 am : KLCI at 876, and KNM at 4.20 vs 4.25. Turnover is about RM10m. This is extremely low, due to CNY-mood.
ASX losing 90points. SGX losing only 10points with very thin volume. GoldenAgri at 0.275 and Gen.Int at 0.42.
11.25 am : KLCI drops to 870. Hmm ... I hv no money to shoot as I need the funds to distribute "angpows" next week.
2.35 pm : KLCI at 869. ASX losing 140points(4%). SGX in reds too ... with C31 leading the pack. At 2.38, C31 might see its 52-week low at 2.28 again soon.
Property : Buy the higher-end newly developing area with potential as INVESTMENT.
3.55 pm : I saw a property for auction --- It is a semi-D(3k s ft), with lauching price at RM325k, and quite a distance away from city. It is a newly devoloped area ... Recently, I saw it was at auction by a bank at the price of RM300k. No taker. So, two days ago, I received the news that it will be auctioned for round-two(10% cheaper) at RM270k. I know it is 'cheap' (what is not at the moment, except our daily expenses!!) but I m going to push my luck ... wait for it go below RM250. Take it or leave it as I need my funds for my markets, anyway. Well, of coz I will be using my EPF to cover partially and take looong loan from a bank, and will negotiate for the 'best' deal.
This is for INVESTMENT. Of coz, I won't mind staying in temporary but if I could rent it out or sell it for RM50k profit, I will. So, this is hanging in my mind ... as they claimed the property prices in KK being maintained. We shall see ...
4.20 pm : I checked on Ranhill chart and it is showing a break-away from 0.86 soon. If we are trading, we do want to look into these signals to buy. But the market sentiment is not good. Hmmm ...
4.50 pm : Bought Ranhill at 0.865.
10.40 pm : My affair with Ranhill : When i first bought into Ranhill in Jan/Feb(can't remember!), it was at 2.30+ level and in fact it went up 2.50. Yes, I bought it as OSK's broker call with target price of 4.00+. If you are a month old in KLSE, you will be excited and naive. Haha. But, I only bought 1k unit, ok? It is like teasting the water, so to speak. Fine.
Ranhill zoomed down after March and 'bad' news about it businesses(in North East Africa too, if I m not mistaken) ... it also planned to privitise RUB at quite a high price(was it 3.80?). I hold on till it dived(please refer to its 1-yr chart). I sold when it lost half of it value at 1.20. Terrible.
Then, at a point Ranhill in play again ... it was trading at 0.80 before I grabbed some and let it off at 1.10 level. I was satisfied but my gains from RH could not cover the loss earlier. I did not look into Ranhill again ... by then, I have more counters to shoot and also my knowledge increased tremendously too. I don't even feel the up or down? Funny ... I think i simply listen to many 'gurus' thru their books and words. Buffett said "If you can't stomach 50% loss, you should not be investing".
DOW down almost 200 points now and trading below 8000 level.
5.30 am : DOW managed to climb back up and only lose about 50points.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Jim Rogers' quarrel with CNBC 2008.10.22
Jim Rogers against the bailouts and FED financial policies. Could Obama undo what Bernanke and his people done? The damages could be too huge for Obama administration to chew.
Certain stocks WILL shoot-up hundreds/thousands of % in future ... 2012, I m seeing. Are you with me? Or are you still jumping around reading blogs to ask "What counter to buy today ar?"
Don't be so pathetic and adding to the 80% of those LOSING money in KLSE. Those young inexperience ones, don't follow the herds. You will be slaughtered and then, you can't take defeat and start to blame everyone else for your losses, except your own LOW mentality in trading/investing. Ask me, and I will help to guide(provided you shown sincerity to learn). Or else, STOP reading my blog ... you will be VERY disappointed and might even blame me for your losses. I DO NOT believe in get-rich quick mentality. I m looking into 5 years and beyond.
Hence, I m looking into wind-energy for an investing opportunity, in future. INVEST NOW for FUTURE. That is my idea. Any comments or input?
Green Technology: Alternative Energy
6.50 am : DOW shoots up 279 points leads by banking/financial stocks. BAC and C rebounded 30%. Crude oil prices rebound too, slight above USD40 too, showing a strong support at USD33.
McDonald and Johnson&Johnson are two good companies to look into under consumer sector.
Nikkei and ASX futures are up and showing that generally markets in Asia region may be able to climb upwards. But, these rebounds are temporary in nature as no one(including Obama) could deny that we will be seeing more ill-accounts and bad economics data will be re-surfacing. I do not see any reason for BUYING any stocks, except for those some know-how doing some tradings.
Resorts(or any so-called strong and popular counter) : How should we invest/trade in it?
Buy now and hold for 3-5 years : This is what many might be doing, in which I feel it is kinda 'unwise' unless you have tonnes of bullets to shoot through out the year!! At 2.25 level, one may want to think that we could start to accumulate some at this 'cheap' level. But, if Resorts moving down(and it will, I m sure), then we should be ready to buy more into it.
TEH : Please get yourself EDUCATED to know what FA(Fundamental Analysis) is all about before you decide to jump and BUY Resorts today at 2.20 level and decide to hold for 3-5 years. My view? NOT to BUY anything to HOLD.
Let us assume that you know nothing much about trading or any other counters. Or you don't even wish to expose yourself into other markets. Stick to ONLY Resorts in KLSE. Hence, by averaging down ... you will have a lower average price that today's 2.25 level. Since you are those BUY and HOLD type, you do not really need to monitor the fluctuations of the prices ... hence, you will only notice its price after 3-5 years period.
How much do we expect to gain? As the risks are rather low at the moment, it is 'safe'(nothing guaranteed in businesses) to say that Resorts price should go beyond current level of 2.25. And let us say that our target price is 4.50, we could be seeing doubling our capitals. Hence, doubling our capital in this crisis period is very much POSSIBLE. Even with a simple BUY&HOLD mentality, know-nothing except Resorts, not even swing-trade it and only by averaging down this counter, you could DOUBLE your money. Interesting enough for any aunty/uncle herds mentality? Good, right? hehe ... well, this is just a hypothetical view.
BUY and HOLD(but swing-trade in between) for 3 - 5 years : Ah, I definite prefer to look into this simple yet more profitting way of investing. Say, we are NOT savvy in other investment vehicles, and we only "LOVE" Resorts.(Please NEVER fall-in-love with a stock). But, you will NOT BUY into Resorts at 2.25 level now ...and because you are a B&H type, you are not concern if it moves below 2.00 or 1.50. But, when it move back to say, 1.20 level, you may "sense" that this is the "bottom", so you may want to BUY it at 1.20 level. Then, you will hold on ... till let say it move-up to 2.00 level, you shall take profits(seeing market zooming down again) ... and perhaps wait till 1.50 level again to BUY again ... and so on. This is just an simplified IDEA of swing-trading ... the longer the time-frame, you may have reduced the risk-level substantially. In a way, you SHOULD be doing better than those just B&H for 3-5 years.
TEH : This need a simple TA(Technical analysis) ... so, you may also want to learn SIMPLE basics(too many indicators will confuse you, and you are NOT day-trader so a simple MA and MACD will be sufficiently enough!). But, since you are HOLDING too, then you do need FA in-hand to CHOOSE one/two counter(s) that will rebound strongly once the economic situations improve. A little bit of RA(Rojak Analysis ... a term used on me, FA + TA). Haha.
9.10 am : Yippee ... KLCI at 881. Come out and play!! Hehe. KNM opened at 0.41 yesterday morning and at 0.44 now ... trading opportunity for those with guts yesterday, right? I was too busy yesterday, otherwise I MIGHT move in too ... look around for more opportunities, then. Don't worry, market is always there.
10.05 am : I m away ... no longer monitoring KLSE but saw Axis in play this morning. Few bought a huge amount of Genting-CM at 0.065 level.
11.30 am : KLCI at 879 ... range-bound.
1.00 pm : KLCI closed at 878.25, and didnt indicate any strength that it will surge up in coming year of bull ... ooppsss ... it is year of OX.
2.30 pm : I have just placed a "notice" so that readers will know my directions in my trading adventure for this coming months. It is an ADVENTURE, mind you.
I have just downloaded SI's AR. That will be my activity for tonight, while listening to Bloomberg's 'Starting Bell'. One of Siemen's involvements is ENERGY sector. Those who wish to have the report, please leave your e-mail address and i will send it whenever I m free. Sorry again that I m TOO BUSY/OCCUPIED to answer any e-mail. Definitely DO NOT ask whether can buy Resorts now or not ar?. Haha
Resorts at 2.25. My affair with Resorts : I bought Resorts when it was diving down at 2.42/2.43 but caught a knife, instead. It zoomed down and when it reached 2.20 level, it was testing 2.15 level ... and when it refuses to go further down and moved back up to 2.20 level, I bought more into it. I was holding at average of 2.34(i think) and for quite a 'long' hold .... it was traded at 2.20-2.30 level, until recently it broke 2.30 level to even touch 2.40+ level, and I hv no problem sell ALL at 2.38. If I m the B&H and swing trade, I will wait for it to go below 2.20 level again before I move in again, placing only 20% first. At 2.15 is it support at the moment, so we SHOULD be buying nearing that level rather than NOW at 2.25. That is what I think, just my cheap free opinion. Anything FREE or CHEAP, we must be wary of it, right? Hehe ...
3.40 pm : KLCI still hanging at 878 level with very low volume. The turnover is merely RM280m. CNY holiday mood, of coz.
5.00 pm : FTSE shooting up with gains from banking/financial stocks. RBS is such a good trading stock as it moves up and down tremendously these few days. But, definitely the risk is so high!!
KLSE closed at 879.02, up 5.61 points.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
OSK just called me to inform me that there will be new call-warrants offered today : KLK, BJToto and Resorts. I m too busy to look into it and since market will be diving down, I will see the exercise price before making decision to grab a little. I want to keep my KLSE's capital to grab some good stocks that zooming down before CNY, actually.
10.05 am : KLCI at 871 level, reds everywhere as expected. SGX losing 2.5% . More downside seen. Weakness in most of the counters.
Over to ASX, RIO at 37 level ... will look into it when it breaches below AUD30 again. ASX losing 1.5% so far.
4.00 pm : How is KLSE? I was too busy to look into it.
4.45 pm : KLCI at 874, losing 5 points only?
5.00 pm : I noticed that LionDiv is quite active today ... and also it was opened at 0.335, and now is o.365. Someone bought 100k units at 0.36 and another 100k units at 0.365. Hmm ... KLCI closed at 873.41. SGX also closed lower by 1.4%.
HSBC closed at 55.00 ... more downside to come. HSBA.L is at 485.
6.00 pm : Went jogging ... Barclay at below 60 level and that it touching new lows everyday(47.30 just now). It is at lowest mark since 1985, 24 years-low!!
Power of Compounding Interest: Secret to Financial Abundance <---TradeOrInvest.com a good site to look into. Yes, again we should look into COMPOUND INTEREST. Being able to trade/invest and gain >10% per annum ... and you will be on your way to financial freedom. BUT, before we could really gain such a substancial amount, we SHOULD educate ourselves with all the knowledge in FA, TA ... or make it RA, if you like. hehe
10.10 pm : Today I m tired ... so, I will rest early. US market are poised to rebound later ... will check on that tmr morning. Also, I will NOT look into OSK's newly offered CW of KLK, BJToto and Resorts. Well, I hv plenty of other plans ... Malaysian CUT rate again.
10.35 pm : DOW opens 108 points higher. Night, Obama.
I still remember Dr M was accusing Soros as 'thief' stealing from poor countries in Asia(particularly SEA) by siphoning out billions of $$$. Well, recently Dr M shoke hands with Mr Soros ... perhaps he understood that NO one particular person could/should be blamed. Dr M is also a VERY daring leader, well-respected for his innovative ways of dealing many issues, including the Asian financial crisis in 97/98. Malaysian MYR was pegged at RM3.80, if we could still recall. My hats off to Dr M as to me he is the MOST intelligent Malaysian leader so far. I may not side BN, but you can't deny his abilities in many area and ... his charm. Long-live, Dr M. We do thank you for all the things you have done(good things la) for our beloved country, Malaysia.
So, it is fully Obama's responsibilities now to SAVE his country from this deep-s*it financial situations they are in. Hope he will NOT continue to dig a bigger hole they are already in. Bernake might done a very bad job in screwing-up many financial decisions and we shall see how Obama and his administration could clean-up so much of thicking dirts. I am still analysing on their doings and to see HOW they could pull themselves up in the midst of huge debts, higher unemployment rate and the ailing economy. It will certainly the BIGGEST challange for any country's top leader. God with him, please.
BAC @ 6.00 and C @ 3 level ... JPM @ 20.00 and AIG @ 1.40. I still don't really understand WHY Lehman, F&F and many were let to close-shop(tutup kedai, in Malay) but AIG, Citi and many more were bail-out. I can't understand the rationale, I mean. Political motions? Too huge to collapse? How about that 3 giant auto companies? F @ 2.00 now.
Let us look at our local banks/financial institutions. IF the huge tsumani reach our shore, WHICH one will our Gov bail-out and which one will be left to fend for its own survival?
Maybank ... our largest bank no more? Maybank recently risk his arms in Indonesia with BII. If I m not mistaken, Maybank venturing to Vietnam and plans on Pakistan too? During such a crisis-ridden situation, Maybank seen as taking too huge of risk in their expansion plans. Maybank share price is at RM5 level at the moment. Yes, once the REAL credit-crunches hit Malaysia, Maybank share will certainly go below RM5 ... and I am seeing RM3 level for any bottom fishing. Maybank most probably will be rescued. Too large to collapse?
Public Bank ... the darling of investors for its concrete business plans and very prudent ways of banking. Tan Sri TEH(my next of kin! hehe) definitely has placed a strong foundation for Public Bank to weather through the crisis this time around. PBBank share price not being spared too and at RM8 level, it is still too 'expensive' to BUY and HOLD. I m not saying PBBank is not a good stock to buy and hold, but ... financial tsunami is NOT here just yet. I will look into PBBank again when our banks' stocks dive down(and drag KLSE with them, for sure). Putting RM5 for PBBank, I m being conservative. PBBank will be too strong to collapse?
CIMB ... well, with Najib expected to be our next PM, CIMB is in our talk ... he will bail-out CIMB should there is too huge of tsunami sweeping across our financial institutions, right? Perhaps RHB or Commerz might merge with CIMB? These will be left to be seen .... as no one could predict how bad the tsunami will be, and which institution our finance minister(guess who is that?!) has interest on.
AMMB ... to me, I will always look at AMMB as this counter provides me the trading opportunity. Whether it will be bail-out or not will very much depends on its political links.
BNM might be preparing for the coming tsunami ... they KNOW it very well that we are not the odd one to be spared. It is a matter of the magnitude, I would say. Second stimulus package are being planned keep Malaysia afloat ... we will NOT be in recession, Nor said again. Our money deposited in local banks are guaranteed fully(at a point, someone stupid enough to say only partial amount could be guaranteed). BNM is doing well at the moment in not creating panicking situation in our naive society. Look at Hong Kong and Korea ... many slept overnight at the banks, queuing to withdraw their savings. We are not reaching there yet, and hope will NOT have to go to that extend. A Korean blogger was detained for painting a gloomy scenario about Korea's economy!! Err ... sorry, BNM ... I m not painting that BAD a situation, am I? Besides, I m very bad in my painting. hehe.
HSBC is currently being swept away by the tsunami .. yes, HSBC has been rooted in Malaysia for years, and becoming a house-hold name locally. Some may even mistaken that HSBC is a local bank, like its advertisment claimed. Whether HSBC could sustain current situations is left to be seen too. But, yes ... it will. So, HSBC(traded in HKEx ... and I m interested in UK's FTSE too) is in my radar for INVESTMENT.
3.15 am : DOW losing 212 points at the moment ... expect more REDS in KLSE later on. I need to rest now. Night(or morning, rather).
6.15 am : DOW lost 332 points to close BELOW 8000. If we take KLCI = DOW/10, then KLCI going below 800? Not today ... but surely to go down later ... buying Resorts? No way ... unless you want to swing trade it, of coz. Hehe