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Friday, October 31, 2008

DOW up slightly. Crude oil price still below US70, at 65 now. KLSE mixed and sideway expected.
No trading today ... as many BUYERS yesterday waiting to take profit. KNM, LionInd, LionDiv, IOICorp etc ... in that mode now.

10.20am : KLCI at 859.94. Maybank up 20cents. Noted.

10.35am : Some buying stared minutes ago ... KLCI up 861.55. Scomi at 0.32, waiting to clear today.

11.55 am : I m surprised that many late-comers still coming in to BUY, must be some local fund managers, trying to support KLSE. A directive from the gov? Have they used the rm5b injection into KLSE? I m seeing very high volume of trade yesterday and i do suspect that. Do note that LionInd still going on strongly at 0.66. I hv missed the boat and i will not chase. Most recent report from OSK stating LionInd is the BESTEST buy ... with target 2.40(from 0.50, mind u). So, is everyone buying LionInd due to its attractiveness or someone speculating on it? It is becoming investors haven ... hmm ...

12 noon : KLCI at 866. Scomi at 0.325, still waiting ...

12.10pm : Scomi long queue to sell at 0.33. I m one of them. Hehe

For good reading : Goodbye USA! taken from http://sportandstock.blogspot.com/

Since last century, US have been most powerful nation in the world for 1 reason and 1 reason only: Economic dominance. Using their economic dominance, they were able to buy weapons and defeated the axis forces and become the absolute leader in the United Nations. They were also using their money to control many commodities in the world including crude oil.

So in general, every success story and greatness achieved by USA today rely on economy. Without it, they are nothing. They are nothing different than Zimbabwe, Argentina or Vietnam. They will lose their military dominance, political dominance and entertainment dominance(Hollywood).

Yes, i wish a good farewell to USA today after Federal Reserve of USA decided to cut the interest rate and discount rate by 50 basis point. Except Japan, no other advance country in this world ever had an interest rate of 100 BP or below and will never try to do such thing.
Japan is very different than USA. Japanese economy is built based on saving and manufacturing. Japanese save a lot of money into banks and that money is used to build factory. It produces electronic products such as TV, Camera, Computer etc. and car such as toyota, honda, mitsubishi stc.

That's why Japan's interest rate can be kept at 0.5%. Japanese do not want to borrow money to spend, they borrow money to invest and most of the money borrowed is not coming from printing press or borrowing from foreign nations but from money saved by average japan citizen. As we know, if too much money saved into the banks, the interest rate has to kept low.

Unlike Japan, American borrow money to spend and money they borrow is not coming from saving but by printing press or by borrowing from foreign nations. By logic, if we borrow money to spend on new car or tv , we can't pay it back because those products do not generate income. So we will bankrupt. The same situation occur for US economy. They borrow money all over the world or print money just to spend which does not generate return. That's why US debt level keep growing at a rapid pace.

How can a country has a debt of more than 10 trillion keep their interest rate at 1%? Who wants to save their money in banks when the interest earned is so low and if no one wants to save their money, how can US government repay their >10 trillions?

Print more money? Sound really like Argentina and Zimbabwe to me because the most dangerous effect of low interest to economy is not low savings but high borrowing. US firms and citizen will borrow even more money to spend because credit is cheap. Banks will lend more money to unqualified borrower because credit is cheap.

When this credit crisis started, we called it sub prime mortgages crisis. It simply mean sub prime borrower can't pay back their money to banks. Are we doing the exact same thing now? credit is cheap again and yes, banks will lend money to sub prime borrower again.
This is simple logic and even a uneducated person understand it. How can all the "expert in economics" person don't understand it??

Lastly i wish USA a good farewell and thanks for the memory of being the most dominance country in the world. Good luck and all the best.

~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~o~

2.20pm : Equine, Sapcres, MRCB, Tebrau, Kinstel ... all actively traded in the morning session and up >5%. LionDiv, LionInd and LionCor moving up strongly for the second consecutive days. I will plan my trade over the weekkend as I will be 'free' next week onwards. School holiday. Hurray ... more time to look into my trades. Hehe

Genting has been moving up from 3.90 last Friday and closed at 4.52 just now. If you bought at 3.90 @ rm39k, then you are cool-ly profitted 6k in a week of trade!! Wow. Time for me to learn the SWING TRADING!!

2.45 pm : KLCI opened lower. Many started to sell to lock on their profits. I couldnt sell at 0.33, perhaps need to release it at 0.32 ... still waiting ...

3.05pm : KLSE lost its energy ... at 858, dont know if it will move into REDS.

4.05pm : I m waiting here for an hour withour seeing anything happen ...

4.30pm : We are into the last hour of October ... sold scomi at 0.315, finally as it doesnt hv strength to move up.

5.05pm : KLCI closed at 866.61, up 10.05.

9.15pm : Europe in RED. Crude Oil drops further. See if DJIA can hold up, and KLSE will continue its rebound. Time to get in to BUY some good stock. Need to check out.

See you all next month.

TEH

Thursday, October 30, 2008

DOW downed slightly ... Crude Oil up to US68 now. Asiatic up 33cents!! Noted.

I dont think so KLSE in reversal ... but if it is consolidating, we might see the bottom soon. Once the oil price up, plantation counters will start to rally, and will push KLCI into green. Hmm ... but generally, we should not be overly excited that this is THE turn. As much as we want to chase off the bear, we need to recognise the HUGE problem/crisis that still haunting many countries, particularly US/Europe. I m still seeing BANKING stocks to be battered further as the waves of the crisis has not really emits its full effects. PBBank 8.25, Maybank 5.00, Commerz 5.80 and HLBank 5.00 were holding up well in yesterday's trades. Should these big ones being affected(INFECTED, rather) by the financial-crisis bugs, KLCI could easily move below 700. No news is a good news at the moment ...



Genting taken from http://tradingbursamalaysia.blogspot.com/

Nibbling : Yes, as we dont know where the bottom is, it is ABOUT time to buy little by little the counters we want to accumulate. Genting and IOI are in accumulation mode. IOI has been pushed down unreasonably low ... so, it is a GOOD buy counter at the moment, either to trade or accumulate. Genting is another favourite. Comparing two, IOI share price has been downed a HUGE %, so the down-side risk is lesser(using lay-man term, for a person like me to understand!!). IOI will be actively traded for these few days/weeks.

Honestly, I m looking into its attractiveness too. IOICorp is in limelight!! KNM has to play as a supporting actor. One still need to trade with caution.

10.30 am : KLCI up to 841, losing its steam soon. LionInd up almost 10% now. IOI at 2.48. Scomi at 0.305. HSPlant moving up 8cents too. Too many to catch, and you will get tired somehow. Catching a falling knief? Be careful ...

10.40 am : I also over-looked LionDiv and moving up 10% now. Perhaps I hv this 'ghost' in me regarding LionDiv which i lost months ago. Need to put everything behind to focus on what i hv in hand. Yes, SELL on RALLY ...

11.00am : KLCI at 845. IOI at 2.53 now ... i hv a target at 2.58, getting ready to take profit. Being discipline is my motto. Need to remind myself that. Scomi at 0.31, slower move and my target price is at 0.33. Clearing both soo, depending on OIL price now. Otherwise, might hold a while ... wait and see ... most plantation counters are UP now. I still like Asiatic and HSPlant for longer term play. Yeah!!

11.10am : IOI reached 2.60 now. Still strong uptrend buying. Hold a while ... ride the tide, and i shall see 2.65 at the moment. Excited, in a way.

11.15am : KLCI at 847, interesting to see many traders/investors trying to have a share of the pie. Profit-taking soon ... and this 'rally' may not last for long. Days? Weeks? Hopefully we are seeing sunshine soon. IOI ... still MANY chasing the stock, i will monitor closely for my exit point. Noted.

11.20am : Someone bought Scomi for 5001lots at 0.31. WOW. And very huge volume in IOICorp.

11.35am : KLCI started to take a turn now. So, I sold at 2.60. Reminding myself NOT to be greedy. As I m only testing my theories that IOICorp will be UP and ACTIVE today, so i was confident to BUY into IOI during opening. But, it was moving very fast ... i was impressed!! It is another exciting adventure in my trading day ...

12noon : KLCI at 843. Trading slowing down ... KLSE might be hungry and waiting for time to go for lunch. Me too .... hehe. Scomi 71k lots done. Still at 0.30. Wont be selling this today, hv to see if OIL up again avove US70, so that we could get in the plantation rally ... many in GREEN today, so better wait for few days, unless u want to hv quick trade ... KLK up too.

12.25pm : Last 10-minutes before lunch, many BUYINGs seen now ... KLCI back to 846. Scomi up to 0.31 ... and during lunch, I will plan for my next trade(depending on many factors!).

12.35pm : KLCI closed at 847.82. Phew!! IOI closed at 2.63! LionInd at 0.58, up 17% this morning in active trade!! Hmm ... I was looking into IOI, and focus was there. Missed Lion's boat ... time for lunch.

1.45pm : I hv read before ... once you won in a trade, clear off those egos first. Emotions could cloud our thinking, hence we will be "driving under influence!!". Heeding to that advice, I will NOT trade in the afternoon session, except watching ... and observing how Scomi will be doing. You dont win ALL the time. But, if you could LEARN to increase your chances of winning(or minimizing your chances of losing), then it is a matter of time you will be more confident to win more of your games ... emm ... i mean, your trade.

Are you a CHESS player? I am. I play chess online leisurely for pleasure!! Well, I was a school-chess player, played in many competitions, and also played in Merdeka Tournament before i migrated to Sabah. I still play chess in Sabah Open. Yes, they said those analytical brain tends to love games such as chess!! I m applying many of the concepts i learnt over the years of playing chess, from a novice to an average player ... to be a competitive player!! Many similarities, I observed. Other than that, I do not have any advantages on my side.

I dont know anything about Accounting and such. I heard of debit/credit, balance sheets and few more terms vaguely. I hv no idea ... until i decided to be in KLSE!! It is hard-earn money, and i m not letting it to chances. I read many investing/trading books ... and many recommend a MINIMAL exposure to reading annual reports, financial statements and such. I struggled as i was totally new!!

I know NOTHING about Economics ... except I heard the word demand-supply. I went to library to get hold of some basic economics concepts. Also, internet ... the beauty part of investing now, allows me to find many info/readings. I read extensively(also intensively) ... besides keying thousands of data ... LEARNING(and will always learn) to relate the share prices with business. Factors that affecting the price of a stock ... etc etc.

Of coz I struggled and made many mistakes/mis-interpretations along the way. And with that, I lost many trades only to realise that I need to CUT LOSS(in July/Aug) all the stocks i was holding. Ouch ... another struggle internally, trying to remind myself that i hv 5 yrs time frame!!

Yes, this month itself(black Oct?), i won 5 lost 1. Yes, relating it to chess games I m playing. I will analyse the ONE GAME i lost thoroughly, and those victories were sweet, i prefer to see it as training ground, acquiring much knowledge.

Nothing comes easy ... to many who want an easy way out(like asking, what counter to BUY? Might as well as for 4-digit and strike big!! rm5 capital turn into thousands??!!), I feel sorry for your greddiness, immaturity in trading/investing and your mind-set is NOT suitable for trading KLSE. Please continue to BUY 4-digits, at least the losses(in long run) is bearable.

I do recommend Martin's book. But one of my first book i read was Milan Doshi --- suggesting crisis-investing(like now??). I remembered in his book, he gave an example : SARS and its effect on airline/hoteling. SIA dropped tremendously. BUY SIA when it is in crisis, wait for the SARS issue to be over. It will take time for confidence to be back ... and you shall reap your profit for 1. taking action of buying into crisis-related stocks(strong ones only, tho) and 2. your patience to wait for it to appreciate.

Listen to yourself ... are we in crisis? Are you going to BUY 'cheap' stocks now? Are you patient enough to WAIT for it to appreciate? What is your plan, then? Too much of work for earning thousands but you work so hard for hours, right? I beg to differ ...

2.35pm : The buying activities are going on --- some late-comers want the share of the pie too. I hv exited but IOI still moving up strongly to 2.68. WOW. Nope, never regret for a good/bad trade you have done. Look for other opportunities ... KLCI at 852, breaking 850 now.

2.50pm : IOI at 2.72. Still very active. Obviously you know WHY IOICorp is moving up very fast with everyone buying, right? Or are you buying IOI because everyone is buying?

6.20pm : KLCI closed higher with high volume at 853.56. We need to see if it could hold to the 850 level tmr as many may take-profit. I shall hold on for a while as Scomi closed at 0.315. I hv a order sell at 0.33, and i need to re-evaluate on that. Besides IOI, today's show belongs to LIONS. Lion roars ... LionDiv and LionInd up >20%. Even LionCor is up!!!

When everything seems to go up, I hv nothing to look into the prices. It becomes irrelevant. Wait till the correction done, then only we shall consider our next trade. Depending on tonight - if DOW up and Oil up too, then ... KLSE will have another short-term bull rally. Otherwise, we shall be back to the square one with KLSE testing 815 support level. Time to BUY? Many do think so today ...

I shall put myself in ALERT condition ... to punt or not? Gamblers mind is DANGEROUS in stock-markets as they are greedy!! A reminder to ALL and myself. Good Luck, then.

TEH

p/s : I m a non-believer in LUCK. It is more of increases our probabilities of winning a trade ...

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

WOW!! DOW up and GREEN pastures everywhere ... there were rallies all-over after lunch yesterday in Asian markets!! If you bought something in the morning dive yesterday, today YOU will GAIN. Take profit?? I missed the boat yesterday morning as I hv meetings. I wont trade if i could not monitor its price movements.

Now, this morning ... the SURGE will be there. Someone going in to TRADE, some will take profit from yesterday's buy ... and some will still enjoying his mocha while watching from sideline. GREEN will be there ... so, nothing much to write.

Yes, I will queue in at 9am!! BUY BUY BUY ... fake optimism or market reversing? Hmm ... think logically, analytically ... trade not invest yet, for me.

But a 'little' ... lets wait and see ... profit-taking once reaching your target. Put a cut loss and market WILL STILL BE VERY BEARISH in short/mid term. Also, I think it is also good to nibble a 'little' of good counters such as the battered IOI. Any 'bad' news will trigger panicking ... and the forex-losses might be overly blown. IOI for a longer term investment will be valid. US dollar will come down soon as recession in US is inevitable.




童安格 - 一世情緣 <--- Angus Tung, one of my fav. Classic!!

9.05am : KLCI jumps up to 850. WOW!! I couldnt get with the price i m q-ing ... never mind, next trade then. I prefer to BUY when it dives down, anyway. Hmm ... how long could this rally last? Two days before it moves back to 815 level? We shall see ...

9.20am : Bought Scomi at yesterday's close value at 0.295. It opened at 0.315 and i dont wish to chase but it is moving down ... might below my purchase price. I need more coffee ... haha

9.35am : KLCI at 840. Some bargain buying on IOI, Resorts and Genting. Asiatic at 2.77, up 12 cents!!

10.15am : KLCI losses the steam and tracking back to 840. See if there is any buying this afternoon ... Tenaga at 6.10

11.20am : KLCI moving sideway ... time for early lunch.

1.20pm : KLCI at 829.46, in RED. I had a nice lunch, only to see Scomi in red of 0.29 now. Well, I hv a cut loss at 0.28(to be conservative). Unless KLSE moving up, I will clear my positions today. Genting stands tall ... up 4cents. Noted.

DiGi at 20.0, the main loser this morning. Other giants most of them are holding on well. Unless another sell-down on these counters, NOTHING to buy just yet.

LionInd at 0.495. KNM at 0.505.

Trade at your own risk.

TEH

Tuesday, October 28, 2008


Investors should be long-term oriented and focused on what stocks they buy

WORLD famous stock market guru, Warren Buffett, made headlines when he bought substantial stakes in technology and services giant General Electric Co (GE) and financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs Group.

Just when everyone else was pulling out their investments from Wall Street, Buffett stepped in to inject some US$8bil in these two companies via his investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well,” he once said.

But is Buffett’s value investing style suitable for the Malaysian equity market and investors?

“Yes, it provides great opportunities to buy now if you are buying for long-term,” said Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn Bhd managing director Gerald Ambrose, adding that the current stock pricing “is irrational” due to the heavy selldown by foreign funds.

He said investors should hold good stocks for “as long as possible” as stock investment was about investing in a company’s management and market strategy.

Jupiter Securities Sdn Bhd executive director of operations Tan Chee Siong said Buffet was very careful with his investments and rarely found stocks that met his requirements.

The five main criteria Buffett uses for stock selection are earnings versus growth, high return on equity, minimal debts, strength of management and simple business model.

Buffett’s strategy was more of a “concentration of a few solid stocks” in a few industries that he could understand, Tan noted.

However, he cautioned that the local bourse, as an emerging market, could be more volatile and that market sentiment could easily be influenced by many external factors.

“We must remember that if we talk about investment in the local equity market, the duration should be shorter and we need to take profit whenever there are signs of big changes in market trend and our economic performance,” he said.

Meanwhile, Aseambankers head of research Vincent Khoo said investors should generally hold on to three principles — “be long-term oriented, only buy what you can afford and be focused in what you buy.”

He said investors should hold on to good stocks for as long as possible.

“Blue chip stocks, for example, can ride through bad times and will recover over time,” he said.

Being among the most successful and trusted investors’, Buffett’s investment in GE and Goldman Sachs restored some investor confidence on Wall Street.

Buffett, who is also known as “The Oracle of Omaha”, is an astute long-term investor and has always investigated the underlying fundamentals of a company, rather than market sentiment.

He has always determined the intrinsic value of a business and paid a good price for it. He believes price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Being prudent, Buffett is said to never invest in any business that he could not understand, a principle that paid off when he escaped the dotcom market crash.

His investment principle is simple— always analyse a company’s annual reports to check its fundamentals and know what you are investing in.

Buffett, who is chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, the most expensive stock on Wall Street, said in a letter to shareholders last year that Berkshire was seeking to invest in companies with favourable long-term prospects and competitive advantage in a stable industry.

To him, “if a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

One of his most successful investments was PetroChina.

Buffett bought a stake in the Chinese oil and gas firm for an initial sum of US$500mil and later sold it for US$3.5 bil.

He has also made successful investments in companies such as Coca-Cola, American Express and Gillette.
Trading is about .... PROBABILITIES. How do we increase our chances of profitting(or lower our chances of losing!!) whenever we trade/invest? That is the RISK we need to manage.



The Market Crashed On Me by Video from Columbia Business School Follies Spring 2008 Show.

I hope you know the original song and enjoy the joke as much as I do, while watching market crashes ... hmm ...

Well, being a 'newbies' in KLSE, I certainly do not stand much of the chances. Especially in BEAR markets. Yes, i fully agreed that we SHOULD NOT buy due to buy calls by the IB(investment bank). They are working for their companies, not their clients. They need transactions, commissions and businesses. Having said that, then how could one NEWBIES(I do know many are here in KLSE for years BUT NEVER really learn much about trading!!) trade with an an edge? Dont read THE EDGE just to see what counter(s) having a BUY call!! I used to be excited to see what counters to buy, with a hope to buy next week or so!! Haha. Of coz, I m not fully THAT stupid/naive. I like the news ... for example, BUY call on KianJoo with target 1.14. Will you BUY KianJoo today? I do hope MANY(unfortunately, they wont) will take some time to THINK on what they are BUYing, on what plans they are placing and what risk level are they taking?

Yes, to educate the PUBLIC is very difficult. In fact, many SMART ones here taking advantages on most traders with trade with emotions. Many lost their money in markets, certainly SOMEONE gain from their losses, right? I read Martin's book(again) over the weekend, he pointed out that MAJORITY of those in markets losing out!! We are talking about 80% loser, 20% winner here. I do believe him. The famous 80: 20 ratio applied here too.

Will you BUY base on 'tips'? Good example given in the book written by Pauline, "I love $tock". You asked your good friend, who work in a public-listed company, whether we can BUY the company's shares. Not to disappoint you, your good friend 'leaked' out a 'secret' that the company is planning to give bonus-shares. You dont even know what bonus-share is about, but you trust your friend. The word "bonus" sound good!! So, confidently you bought the shares. Fine. Then, you waited for your 'bonus' ... the share prices start to drop, you rang your friend-up for a drink and asked him about the situation. Not to shame himself, he told you not to worry and in fact, looking into the share-buyback data. You have the fainted idea what it is about .. nodding and convinced. Ok, I shall BUY more of it. You are going to be RICH soon, you thought. Thanking your friend for such a GOOD tip, you promised to buy him dinner once you have gained. Phew ... your friend escaped the embarassment. Months after that, the bonus did not come ... the share price continues to go down ... you could no longer contact your good friend and you are cursing your luck of trusting your friend!!

Buying on rumoursa, selling on news? Hmm ... perhaps the 'story' is over-simplified but to teach a lay-man about the art & science of TRADING/INVESTING is VERY challenging. It requires a whole change of the MIND-SET. I m not writing these, I m only trumpetting what Martin said as I do believe that for common ah-kow or ahmad, their MIND SET is NOT suitable to be in market ... I m trying to free my mind from the herds. RUNNNNN ... they will run. COMEEEE ... and obidiently they will come. BUYYYYY ... they wont ask much, they will BUY.

TIPS

Listed below are stocks given by a broker house for Value-Play? So, will you trust me and my resources to BUY into any of these counters today??

Value Play : IJM, Tenaga, Astro, BJLand, HSL, Scomi Engineering, Sime Darby, Gamuda, Sumatec, Kencana, UEM Group, Star, IOI Corp, Bursa, Bernas, BCHB, Maybank

KLSE is opening soon ... DOW downed 200+ points. KLSE will be in RED again, and many more will RUNNNNN ... SELLLL ... zooming to 850 level soon, seeing 815 lower support level. Below 800 this week? Or shall KLSE faces another 'technical' hitches?

We shall see ... personally, NOTHING to buy. Just watch ...

9.08am : less than 10 minutes, IOI losing 30cents!! KNM at 0.435, going below 0.39 soon? And Gamud at 1.30, going below 1 soon?

9.20am : KLCI 807 : Sime 5.50, IOI 2.14, KLK 6.75, PPB 6.90, Asiatic 2.61, Tenaga 6.00, PBBank 7.90, Commerz 5.80, HLBank 5.60, Maybank 4.85, Genting 3.62, Resorts 2.19, DiGi 20.90, TM 3.22, TMI 4.26, YTL 5.50, YTLPower 1.63, Parkson 2.63, UMW 5.20, Astro 2.10, MAS, 2.89

9.35 am : KLCI at 804. 18 GREEN vs 450 RED. LionInd 0.46(L 0.445), Scomi 0.26(L 0.255), HSPlant 1.30, HapSeng 1.46. MPHB 0.98, IGB 1.14,

11.40am : KLCI at 802. 28 GREEN vs 668 RED. More new lows ...

12.30 pm : KLCI at 807.95, closing for lunch. KNM shown increased interest before lunch, and moving back to 0.49(L 0.415). Accumulating or speculating? IOI at 2.14 with the highest volume traded. Resorts positioned third, following closely to KNM, to close at 2.22(L2.16). If we LIKE Resorts(many do) when it was traded at 2.70 level, surely you will BUY it at this 'cheap' value? BUYing at 2.20 level, at such a BEARISH market, one need to prepare to average-down(only applicable to 'good' stocks??!!!)

For entertainment purposes(we need that!!), listen to Lemon Tree. Haha. Do help yourself to search for the lyric ---> here



Hehe ... "I m hanging around, I am waiting for you ..."

Well, I shall wait ... till the sun shines again.

Brace yourself as we are seeing 800 level so much sooner .... SELL and RUN, if you can. Rest if you needed to ... otherwise, enjoy a mocha while thinking on WHEN to buy and WHAT to buy ...

4pm : KLCI 828. KLCI recovering from the morning dive. Did anyone buy KNM and Genting, the only two active GREEN counters at the moment? Amazing ... i missed the show, with many meetings in office. Hmm ... Even Scomi is at 0.285, from the low of 0.255 this morning!! Some funds are buying??

TEH

Monday, October 27, 2008

Reflecting on my TRADING adventure thus far, i would say that i m 'lucky' that i came in end of 2007, witnessing the burst of plantation bubble, also the dive of WORLD markets. In between, I have lost significantly, BUT i was cautious and placed only very little capital up-front to 'play'. Well, i was learning on the way ... and i m glad for some losses made!! It is lesson, invaluable and to be wiser in future trades.

End of DEC 2007, my first BUY was ASTRO at 3.30. Everyone need ASTRO, i quipped. At 3.30, it is a bargain and viewing the market was still uptrend, I 'feel' it could move up and I was 'lucky' it was up. Sold it off at 3.58 3 weeks later, I was HAPPY with my first trade!! Hey, it is easier than i thought. That WAS the mistake i made ... to think it is EASY!! I started with keying thousands of data ... create a huge data base for almost every counters traded in KLSE. I was a quick learner(thank GOD) and bought a few more books on trading ...

GPlus was moving up HIGH ... lets us try momentum stock, i thought. Being naive and PROUD with my first WIN over ASTRO, i feel I could get Gplus and win the trade!! I bought Gplus at 1.35 and seriously, i was UP to 1.52 two weeks later(during JAN 2008, everything seems to go up, anyway). If u ask me what the business of Gplus etc etc ... i know very little. Perhaps, it is ONE of the property counters, having some business in China. Not even looking into its team of management, the fundamentals and balance sheet etc etc ... merely from GRAPHs, inddicating this counter is many fav to catch the wave!! Hmm ... bad stories of GPlus cropped and many started to throw. I pressed the panic button too ... immediately call my remisier to SELL, cut lost after it moved bellow 1.30!! Two days after i sold it, it moved UP again. Like many novice traders, i was cursing my luck. But, next few weeks, you could see it dropped to be a penny-stock!! Of sudden(from cursing my luck!!), i was relieved. Phew ... luckily i sold for small loss, i justified. These are emotions in play ... good lesson and i m so much wiser after into 10 months of changing my MIND-SET. Even emotionally, i m trying to stablilise it. DO NOT TRADE WITH EMOTIONS, my constant reminder. Yes, I could easily 'regret' that i SHOULD HAVE sold it at 1.50 level, but hey ... when you have little knowledge, u will be GREEDY. In fact,i dont really trade with much planning!! What a mistake!! It is plain stupid!

How about buying due to news from broker houses?

The BUY call by OSK on Ranhill at the end of JAN. I started to read about Ranhill etc etc ... knowledge was about 20%. Ok, since they asking to BUY, i BUY la. I bought very little just to test the call. It went up from my purchase price of 2.33 to 2.50 ... but, the report said TARGET PRICE 3.80!! Being naive again, i was confident it could go to at least 3.00 and sell it off by then. Haha. That belief was VERY strong ... and i was holding to it even the market going down. Finally, after MONTHS later, I cut loss at 1.45. Of coz, months later I hv learned much more, being more knowledgable and applying some theories.

Ranhill ran down the hills ... it is a penny stock at the moment. And it might take very loong time to get back to 2.33 level(if it ever). RUB was taken private.

Well, many more buy/sell along the way ... and certainly I m more confident of my trades. I m still very cautious. And as of today, I will only trade when opportunities arises. And reminding many that the BEAR will be around for quite some-time.

Learn as much about trading/investing NOW ... so that when time comes, may be next year ... you could be more KNOWLEDGABLE than you are today and hopefully you would hv the courage to TRADE with discipline. Much said, I m speaking to myself, actually. I m making sure that i m NOT the 80% of the crowd that losses in SHARE MARKETS and get battered, emotionally. Share market is NOT a place to gamble ... I dislike gambling. I dont even buy 4-digits.

Do your homework well ... and you will be rewarded, one day. I m speaking as a teacher.

TEH

Saturday, October 25, 2008


DOW downed 300+. Crude Oil below US65. KLSE is lucky to close on Monday!! Happy Deepavali.

After yesterday's fall, I hv to start all over again with the stalk-stocks prices. Last month data becoming irrelevant as we are charting new territories.

Plantation - 17th Oct ---> 25th Oct

1. Asiatic - 3.60(L 3.56) ---> 2.89(L 2.88)
2. BatuKawan - 6.70(L 6.55) ---> 6.60(L 6.40)
3. HSPlant - 1.45(L 1.43) ---> 1.38(L 1.37)
4. IJMPlant - 1.53(L 1.53) ---> 1.45(L 1.45)
5. IOICorp - 3.02(L 3.00) ---> 2.45(L 2.40) ALERT!!
6. KLK - 8.00(L 7.75) ---> 7.25(L 7.20)
7.KMLoong - 1.46(L 1.45) ---> 1.44(L 1.44)
8. Kulim - 4.96(L 4.82) ---> 4.28(L 4.20)
9. Kwantas - 2.18(L 2.08) ---> 1.88(L 1.60)
10.Sime - 6.40(L 5.85) ---> 6.00 (L 5.85)
11.TSH - 1.60(L 1.59) ---> 1.44(L 1.43)
12. TWSPlant - 1.38(L 1.36) ---> 1.20(L 1.20)
13. UMCCA - 5.70(L 5.30) ---> 5.05(L 5.05)

Except for SIME, every counter registered the new low. Some tracing back to year 2006!!
.
Tenaga closed slightly higher yesterday. Some funds are collecting, OSK has a BUY call with TP 9.80. Those who do not like trading, this is a very good blue-chip to accumulate. BUY and put it away till market recovers.

Steel Sectors(prices as at end of weeks for month of OCT 2008)

1. AnnJoo - 2.45 --- 2.20 --- 1.65(L 1.61) ---> 1.19(L 1.19) ALERT!!
2. CSCSteel - 1.22 --- 1.04 --- 0.91(L 0.86) ---> 0.81(L 0.80)
3. HiapTeck - 1.10 --- 0.995 --- 0.87(L 0.86) ---> 0.76(L 0.72)
4. Huaan - 0.375 --- 0.32 --- 0.265 (L 0.255) ---> 0.215(L 0.20)
5. KianJoo - 1.17 --- 1.10 --- 1.06(L 1.06) ---> 0.945(L 0.91)
6. Kinsteel - 0.56 --- 0.49 --- 0.415(L 0.405) ---> 0.395 (L 0.38)
7. LionInd - 1.26 --- 1.04 --- 0.75(L 0.75) ---> 0.49(L 0.485) ALERT!!
8. LSteel - 0.46 --- 0.43 --- 0.385(L 0.375) ---> 0.305(L 0.305)
9. Masteel 0.80-- 0.725 --- 0.64(L 0.615) ---> 0.595(L 0.55)
10. Mycron 0.50 --- 0.45 --- 0.395(L 0.37) ---> 0.345(L 0.28)
11. Perwaja - 1.25 --- 1.08 --- 0.875(L0.83) ---> 0.74(L 0.74)
12. PMetal - 1.03 --- 0.885 --- 0.78 (L 0.77) ---> 0.575(L 0.56)
13. SSteel - 1.92 --- 1.69 --- 1.60 (L 1.48) ---> 1.25(L 1.25) ALERT!!

ALL the LOWS recorded YESTERDAY!! Black friday?
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Finance - 16th Oct ---> 25th Oct

1. AeonCr - 2.70 (L 2.70) ---> 2.65(L 2.61)
2. AMMB 2.39 (L 2.38) ---> 1.98(L 1.95)
3. Commerz 7.30 (L 6.85) ---> 6.40(L 6.20)
4. HLBank 5.20 (L 5.15) ---> 5.25(L 5.15)
5. Maybank 5.50 (L 5.45) ---> 5.05(L 4.94)
6. PBBank 8.65 (L 8.30) ---> 8.55(L 8.30)
7. RHBCap 3.38 (L 3.38) ---> 2.71(L 2.71)
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In my opinion, our financial counters have NOT feeling the actual effects from the global financial crisis yet. So,there are plenty of DOWNSIDE in these counters. Banking counters WILL pull down the KLCI further.
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HLBank has been very steady. But, overall, it is moving downtrend too. Noted.
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Oil and Gas (15th Sept) ---> 18th Sept ---> 10th Oct ---> 16th Oct ---> 24th Oct
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1. Dialog - 0.90(L 0.86) ---> 0.905 ---> 0.975 ---> 0.895 ---> 0.61(L 0.61) ALERT!!
2. Kencana 1.32 (L 1.20) ---> 1.34 ---> 1.25 ---> 1.20 (L 1.17) ---> 1.17(L 1.14)
3. KNM - 1.14 (L 1.08) ---> 1.17 ---> 0.955 (L 0.95) ---> 0.685 (L 0.39) ---> 0.50
4. Sapcres - 1.26 (L 0.98) ---> 1.26 ---> 0.995 ---> 0.865 (L 0.805) ---> 0.605(L 0.60)
5. Scomi - 0.48 (L 0.475) --> 0.475 --> 0.41 (L 0.41) --> 0.355 (L 0.335) -->0.29(L0.285)
6. Wah Seong - 1.43(L 1.43) ---> 1.34 ---> 1.20 (L 1.19) ---> 1.19 (L 1.14) ---> 1.10(L 1.08)
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ALL new lows recorded yesterday, except KNM(L 0.39).
.
TEH

Friday, October 24, 2008

DOW mixed and closed 100+ points up. Investors are looking into crude oil price too. At 69.20, it fell below US70 recently. With intervention of OPEC, the price might stablize in time. With that said, we could see the CPO stablizing and some reports downgraded it to 1500, averagely.



David Tice, Prudent Bear Fund says there is a 100% Chance of Recession on Bloomberg News Video. Says stock market to decline 50-60%. Do go to the links for details.

I was speaking to a collegue(Sabah has large plantations here) regarding the fall of CPO price affecting our KLSE(huge weightage, 30+% i think). It was from the peak of 4000+, and now it is at 1500+ level. Additional to their woes, gov wants a piece of the cake and ... durian-runtuh(windfall) tax!! IPPs 'escaped' our gov greediness(desperation, rather), but plantation companies PAID their with their durians. It is said that the tax will be reviewed, perhaps they could no longer supply cheap durians. The costs of planting durians have shoot-up. Now, with many of the plantation counters prices plunged back to the level before the plantation-rally(the bubble bursted!), I think there are values in these counters.

Personally I like SIME, Asiatic and HSPlant. IOI caught the attention of many too. We shall see how OPEC's efforts could do any help to stablize the CPO prices, and hence cushioning the fall of plantation stocks prices.

Plantation (as at 23 Sept 2008) ---> 15th Oct ---> 23rd Oct

1. Asiatic - 4.46(L4.20) ---> 4.78 ---> 4.00(L3.86) ---> 3.10(L 3.08)
2. BatuKawan - 7.05 (L 6.55) ---> 7.50 ---> 6.90 ---> 6.65 (L 6.50)
3. HSPlant - 1.72(L 1.66) ---> 1.91 ---> 1.59(L 1.58) ---> 1.44 (L 1.40)
4. IJMPlant - 1.68 (L 1.59) ---> 1.93 ---> 1.65 (L 1.56) ---> 1.56(L 1.52)
5. IOICorp - 4.06 (L 3.74) ---> 4.56 ---> 3.36 (L 3.34) ---> 3.02 (L 2.95)
6. KLK - 9.30 ( L 8.55) ---> 9.85 ---> 8.55 (L 8.00) ---> 7.65(L 7.55)
7.KMLoong - 1.68 (L1.65) ---> 1.67 ---> 1.65 (L 1.60) ---> 1.48(L 1.45)
8. Kulim - 5.40 (L 5.00) ---> 5.65 ---> 5.15 (L 4.82) ---> 4.66(L 4.62)
9. Kwantas - 2.62(L 2.59) ---> 2.68 ---> 2.31 (L 2.08) ---> 2.00(L 1.90)
10.Sime - 6.05 (L 5.85) ---> 6.50 ---> 6.75 --------------> 6.25(L 5.85)
11.TSH - 1.85(L 1.77) ---> 1.99 ---> 1.73 (L 1.70) ---> 1.49( L 1.48)
12. TWSPlant -------------------------------------> 1.30 (L 1.30)

The REDS were registered in yesterday's trading. Worth stalking ... for looonger term, worth nibbling.

MayBulk 2.49(L 2.40)



Looking in another potential good BUY, MayBulk. Noted.

The worst is NOT over yet : Dr M

Asian countries are going to feel the pinch of a world where the market has collapsed, says Malaysia's former prime minister.

TUN Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the leader who steered Malaysia through the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, said the current global turmoil is far from ending and will soon spread to the region's export-dependent economies. more here


TEH : Dr M should be wiser when making such a comment, and yes I do believe it is far from over. In fact, due to my negative views on market sentiments, I will even say that it is the beginning of a larger crisis, yet to reach our shore. Sending out warning for those who heed. Well, we have 5B injection, a drop in the ocean compared to 700B injection by the US. Even so, they are asking for more drugs ...

Banking sector will start to feel the pinches/punches in coming months. Many cars will kena-tarik(tow away). Houses will be lelonged(auctioned). Malaysia on CHEAP sales, then? We shall wait ... that will be the time when CASH is KING!

9.10am : If you guess DOW was GREEN, KLSE should be up, then KLCI -7points caught u by surprise? IOI and Commerz under heavy selling pressure, losing 8cents and 30cents at the moment.

10.05am : KLCI at 877.25, and I m not suprised. Look into it at the larger picture. READ more to hv the knowledge. Apply it when time comes ... at the moment, nothing to BUY, so i hv been sidelined for months since CUT LOSS those counters i was holding. Since we do not know the bottom, we can adopt to buy a little by a little as it is moving down. But, once it hit the bottom ONE DAY, be prepare to shoot with the ammunitions you have been accumulating!! Haha.

IOI at 2.85 and Commerz at 6.35. IJM 3.44. Genting 4.06. Maybank 5.05. PBBank 8.65. YTLPower 1.67.

Sime, Tenaga and PPB still steady ... looks good.

10.25am : KLCI at 8.78+, braking from the dive and some bargain buyers in the market now.

WCT at 1.37 and I hope I hv given enough signals NOT to buy, just yet. No one could tell you what is really going on but common-sense telling us not to trade/invest.

Gamuda is another construction counter I will NOT touch, no matter how cheap at the moment. Gamuda at 1.60. Someone supporting its drop and read that OZ-fund buying into it. If the privatisation story is true at rm3+, more reason to believe the middle-east will BUY in now for half the price, right? Think ... WHY they didnt make a move yet? Will they ever? When and How?

10.50am : KLCI at 876.13. Welcoming YNH to the penny-stock world. At 0.995 now ... many still throwing away. Noted. Genting testing 4.00(touching that a while ago)

KNM and LionInd both locked at 0.515 now. Who will move below 0.50 first? Hmm ... that is the situation in KLSE now, trading is a ding-dong game. I dont like games, especially expensive ones. I like the way stock-tube written, if I know when it the bottom, those $$$ people will bid for the highest fee to have lunch with me. Haha. That was Buffett ... what was the price paid to have lunch with him the last time around? Hmm ...

11.20am : KLCI at 873.9. KLK 7.40.

11.35 am : KLCI at 872, dragged down by IOICorp. Today KLSE's top story belongs to IOI. It lost almost 40cents at the moment, at 2.63 now.

12.10 pm : IOICorp at 2.60 level. Gamuda at 1.44. KNM = LionInd at 0.51. Commerz 6.35.

KLCI bleeding ... at 871.91

To put the gloom away, lets enjoy this classic --- Eevry Breath You Take by Police? Haha. Err ... if you dont know about the song, you might wont laugh louder than me! Hahaha. Very creative. Very good.

Every Breath Bernanke Takes


2.50pm : KLCI at 857 now!!! RUN RUN RUN ... !! It is reaching 850 earlier than i expected. We simply need to lower down our target price in everyday basis.

IOICorp at 2.42, losing 60cents. Sorry for those bought IOI last week, for whatever reason. Too late to cut loss, need to hold. Be strong, you are not alone.

Scomi at 0.295(L 0.285). Noted.

6.30pm : KLCI at 859.11. KLCI testing 840 support level next week, and if DOW close RED tonight and on Monday night, KLSE will zrrrooommm downwards on Tues. We are 'lucky' that KLSE will be closed on Monday. Perhaps Bursa will announce another technical hitch on Tues? Hmm ... Is KLSE reaching its bottom soon? I dont think so ... it is about 10-20% going-down to the bottom, meaning i m expecting another 70% downside!! I m NO EXPERT, please bear with me ... I m bull-shitting. LOL

Counters losing >20cents

PPB 7.65(lost 55c), Gamuda 1.39(lost 21c), IJM 3.20(lost 64c), Commerz 6.40(lost 40c), RHBCap 2.41(lost 31c), PBBank 8.55(lost 20c), SIME 6.0(lost 25c), Genting 3.90(lost 30c), TMI 4.58(lost 32c), Parkson 3.0(lost 38c), Tanjong 10.10(lost 30c), KLK 7.25(lost 40c), Asiatic 2.89(lost 21c), Kulim 4.28(lost 38c), BStead 2.50(lost 39c), Kluang 1.75(lost 27c), ...etc etc

And the winner today is none other than the leader since morning .... IOICorp!!! Lost 57cents to closed at 2.45(intra-day low 2.40) with 1.2 millions lots traded!! It lost 16.9% TODAY. We would like to here a live interview with Mr Lee.

Almost every counters not spared today. Some panic-selling too. Not me, I cant be having such an influence, right? I m just stating the BEAR will be here for longer than many expected ...

I m sad to see many losing money(but on the other hand, someone pocketed the money!), while we still can ... be rational. THINK. 1. CUT LOSS 2. HOLD-ON or 3. AVERAGE DOWN. But if you hv actually plan ahead before you bought ANY counters, then execute your plans accordingly, with DISCIPLINE, yet flexible.

Will need to analyse this weekend. Have a nice weekend, and off Monday. Take a break ... come back perhaps next year when we see 650points.

11pm : DOW opens red, downed 300+ points at the moment. You dont need to guess about our KLSE on Tue, or anyday. Hmm ... having said that, is it time to nibble? Hmmm

TEH

Thursday, October 23, 2008

DOW downed 500+ points to close at 8500+. So, are we seeing KLCI at 850, if these two are moving in tandem?

KLSE will be in RED, slaughtering and blood in the battlefield as more being 'killed' for not heeding the BEAR's order " GET OUT OF MY WAY!!". It is sad that many have lost their stake in equity markets ... and investment banks are collapsing(By the way, OSK, HDBS, TA, Kenanga, ECM are at their NEW lows). Lehman have to be shut down. That is ENORMOUS. Try to imagine if such big financial crisis hitting us, every sectors will be affected.

Crude oil trading below US70 now. If CPO below 1500, can many plantation companies sustain their profits? Will the wind-fall tax being taken off? At the moment, I m very interested with plantation news ... not buying any stocks, but to learn to see factors affecting their profits(hence their respective share prices). Will crude oil below US50 as some pointed out? OPEC is coming in to take some measurements/controls. We shall see ...

Are we almost at the bottom? Some analyst think so. Sometimes we need to paint a 'positive' pictures and trying to convince the investors that the markets are reaching their bottoms soon. Perhaps I m not THAT convinced. So, i rather stay sideline and collect some bullets. I m looking into 3-5 yrs time-frame as I believe this time the BEAR is HUGE and hungrier ...

Defensive stocks might get some attention. Brokers are calling for those who which to 'play-safe', go for those stocks with higher dividend yield. Even BJToto is moving lower and lower ...

Longer winter expected

By James Saft

LONDON (Reuters) - In a season with plenty of chilling numbers try this one: American households have lost something in the order of $7 trillion of wealth this year alone. read here

In Malaysia, we might not hv the four seasons but .... chilling cold as fears dominating the markets. Yes, we are expecting a looong winter, perhaps through till CNY. I m not sure if Santa going to give us some goodies and I m not sure if Choy-San will be here to cheer us during CNY 2009. All are pointing to the direction that we might be experiencing a looonger downtrend. Hibernate during the winter is the advice. If you need to find some food, do it quick before the BEAR sees you and you might be eaten alive. Surviving the winter is crucial ... the sun will be here again, some day.

9.30 am : KLCI straight down to 890 level today ... we might be seeing 850 sooner. Hmm ... and we are still NOT being hit by the tsunami yet!! Someone dare to point out 750, i read somewhere. Yes, as analysts in US accepting defeat and stating DOW to be below 7500, indicating our KLSE might go below 750? We are not in 1997/98 crisis level, but it is affecting us largely. Brace yourself for MORE down-side ... we are diving down ...

LionInd 0.55(L 0.525) and KNM at 0.605, dominating the volumes traded so far.

9.45 am : KLCI at 886(breaching the 888 liao), lost 2% : All heavyweights in REDS.

Sime 6.15. PPB 8.15. Genting 4.20. PBBank 8.50. MayBank 8.05. Commerz 6.70. UMW 5.45. Tenaga 6.40. Tanjong 10.30. DiGi 21.90. KLK 7.55. etc

10 am : KLCI 882. HSPlant 1.40. Kwantas 2.0. Asiatic 3.18. IOICorp 2.97.

11am : LCL 0.935. MMC 1.86. Titan 0.88.

12.30pm : KLCI at 886.67. Someone buying Resorts, the only green in the sea of reds. It touched 2.39(new low) this morning. At 2.44, Resorts potentially goes below 2.40 soon. Will it go below 2.00? But I want to believe it will NOT visit the penny-stock world as many are ... LCL and Titan, for example. Many more if i hv to mention it here ... KNM, LionInd and Kinstel/Perwaja, remember?

Exercise : Name 10 counters that visited the penny-stock world since last month? No price for this simple exercise.

More challenging one : Name 10 counters that MIGHT visit the penny-stock world in one month time. That i need to do some work ...

AnnJoo 1.33 and SSteel 1.44 are the two come to my mind immediately. It is still zoooming down.

SAAG at 0.195(L 0.19)


SAAG was graduated from the second board recently, and certainly not doing well(O & G?). Someone mentioned that investors 'dislike' second board new kids. Hmm ... I dont really follow SAAG for quite sometime now ... and I believe with such a cheap price, it is easily manipulated. So, I dont like the risk that i could not manage. That is my opinion. Sometimes, no opinion is the best opinion, u know. Read the graph above and interpret it yourself. Just another waterfall?


TEH

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Valuecap's Holdings: copied from http://bursa-chat.blogspot.com/

UAC Bhd 3,222,700 4.33 %

Amway(M) Holdings Bhd 6,958,100 4.23 %

MBM Resources Bhd 10,010,200 4.14 %

Hume Industries Bhd 6,596,400 3.45 %

PPB Group Bhd 40,452,900 3.41 %

IOI Property Bhd 28,267,500 3.4%

KLCC Property Holdings Bhd 30,957,800 3.31 %

Petronas Dagangan Bhd 32,436,400 3.27 %

YTL Cement bhd 14,955,092 3.05 %

Uchi Technologies Bhd 11,318,200 3.03 %

Chintek Plantations Bhd 2,646,000 2.9 %

United Plantations Bhd 5,975,800 2.87 %

Star Publications (M) Bhd 21,148,500 2.86 %

JTI International Bhd 7,144,400 2.73 %

Boustead Properties Bhd 6,672,150 261 %

Bintulu Port Holdings Bhd 10,121,100 2.53 %

Shell Refining Company Bhd 7,589,300 2.53 %

British American Tobacco Bhd 6,505,200 2.28 %

Axis REIT 5,400,000 2.11 %

Quill Capital Trust 4,302,000 1.1%

BTimes : here

In a report yesterday, OSK highlighted 11 potential targets on the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) that Valuecap may go for — MISC, Petronas Gas, DiGi, British American Tobacco, Petronas Dagangan, MAS, Sime Darby, Maybank, IOI, AMMB and MMC.

TEH
DOW was in RED last night. We might expect that too later on, and some profit-taking will be going on. I would rather watch today ...

Well, I do not day-trade(exception to KNM last thu as I never seen such GOOD oprortunity arise AND i happened to be FREE to monitor every minute of its movement!!). Simulation --- I m assuming that I m 'buying' a counter at 9am and to sell at 5pm. I 'lost' my yesterday LionInd trade --- bought at 0.74, 'sold' at 5pm at 0.72. Wait, if i m day-trading, i WILL sell it off around 11+am when it touches 0.76!! Gaining 2cents is not much, unless it is HUGE amount. Yes, do remember that we have to pay the brokers.

I m a learner ... and once i hv the knowledge, i will look into HSI and such. I hv started to peep at STI and HSI recently as these two markets plunged much more than KLSE as the foreign funds pulling themselves OUT.

Well, thanks RU at http://sportandstock.blogspot.com/ for your comment. I do appreciate such comments. Well, I know i m OVER-simplifying things ... haha... it is for pleasure-reading purposes and NOT to recommend BUYING/SELLING. But, thanks for your pointers, anyway. Oh, btw ... I m your follower!! Hehe






Muhibbah

I was looking into WCT vs Gamuda. WCT vs Muhibbah. Gamuda and Muhibah are chosen as they are in my tracking list. Both have depressed very much, steep and in very fast pace. For past 2 days, some BUYING into these counters and rebounded from their intra-day lows(look at my previous post). If you didnt know anything much about these two counters, then WHY BUY and taking the RISK?

For trading purposes TODAY, I will choose Muhibbah. Say I m buying it at 0.74(closed 0.73 yesterday) later ... we see if anyone collecting at higher price in BEAR market!!

Again, I m not buying with REAL money, so ... i can just BUY without fear? It is my daily exercise and keeping up my momentum.

9.30am : KLCI at 912+. WCT at 1.43. LionInd at 0.695 ... hmm ... how low can they go? We shall see ... NOTHING to buy la ...

9.40 am : WCT and GAMUDA in GREEN now. Wow!

10 am : LionInd at NEW low ... 0.675. Say, i LIKE this counter/company. I read a lot from the broker calling BUY. Say I hv done enough homework and still BELIEVE the company will turnaround once the demand for steel(constructions booming again etc ) and the price of steel improves, THEN I WONT hesitate to nimble NOW. Perhaps 30% of my capital I planned for this counter. Wait ... i repeat, PLANNED. Yes, when we are stalking, for each individual sector and zooming to a counter, we need an INVESTMENT plan. Wow ... that is a lot of work. I know ... but it is only wise.

So, i m placing 30% at 0.67 or so. Then, I will wait ... if it moves down, say to 0.50 ... may be I will put in more. Hey, I just bought at 0.67, 0.50 surely a bargain, k? Then, wait ... yes, wait for 3-5 yrs!! Very likely you will gain much ... unless the company collapse(together with Malaysia economy?).

My question to ALL : WHY BUY NOW? Unless you have enough bullets to shoot later on, dont you think so it will move further down? U mean you are not convinced markets will go lower? Hmm ...

AT the moment, NOTHING to buy for me as I m taking time to READ --- annual reports of GOOD counters, monitoring the prices and other factors affecting it, re-freshing my investing-mind and also recording it in this blog(started 08.08.08!!). So, nothing to BUY ... i m waiting for next year ... or next-next year ... I dont know. No one could tell you that!

LionInd is the main story this morning!! It lost 6cents(i lost my sixth-sense too!) and at 0.66 now. At what value should we go in? No one can tell ... I m interested to know too!!

11am : LionInd at 0.65, with high volume. Many will be caught if they hv bought into it last week. Now, we are saying it will rebound(but WHEN?) but if u r buying now, and catching a falling knife, better be prepare to buy MORE into it. 30%-30%-40% and such ratio.

12.40pm : KLCI at 910.78


LionInd is in play closed 0.625 for lunch, touching L0.595 for a while. I m not sure about the MANY who are buying/selling ... it surely too scary for me, tho.

2pm : HSPlant at 1.46(L 1.40) and HapSeng at 1.84(L 1.84) ALERT!

Steel-related counters still moving downwards with LionInd taking the lead. AnnJoo at 1.41, new lows everyday(but surprisingly its warrant was up 11% this morning). HiapTeck at 0.84(L 0.80). PMetal zoooming down at a very fast rate losing 13% to close at 0.60(L 0.60).

Bad news for YNH and it is joining the list of new-found waterfalls. Closed at 1.18(L 1.12 today), it will retrace further.

TA-wb traded the most actively and lost 0.01(-18.2%) to close at 0.045, its NEW low. Heavy queue at 0.045 at the moment, and for PUNTERS this may be be considered as a good punt? It is a ding-dong thing here ... I rather bet Liverpool to beat Atl. Madrid. Hehe.

2.40pm : KLCI zoom directly down to 903+ and testing 900 points again. We will see KLCI below 900 points realised this week. More down-side to come.

6.20pm : KLCI 904.82, lost 13.88. EURO opens RED, and most probably DOW in RED tonight too and KLCI will be below 900 tmr. Will it reaches the magic number of 888 soon? We shall wait ...

LionInd at 0.59(L 0.59) lost 18% with half-million lots traded. Yes, LionInd in the main story today. Time to BUY this beauty?

Gamuda 1.59, WCT 1.45, Muhibah 0.725. LionDiv 0.325. PPB 8.40. AMMB 2.11. PBBank 8.70. Maybank 5.30. KNM 0.63. Scomi 0.34. Evergreen 0.53. AnnJoo 1.40. LionCor 0.255. YTLPower 1.71. DiGi 22.0. Puncak 1.96. YNH 1.15. IGB 1.31. Astro 2.55. Parkson 3.58. Tnajong 10.50. MMCCorp 1.97(Alert).

Plantations : IOI 3.04. KLK 8.0. Asiatic 3.32. Kulim 4.84. HSplant 1.47. IJMPlant 1.62. Kwantas 2.23. SIME unchanged, 6.35

Resorts 2.43 (L 2.41) and Genting 4.32 (L 4.30). New lows today. Noted.

O & G : KNM 0.63. Scomi 0.34. Sapcres 0.725. Dialog 0.805. Kencana 1.20. WaSeong 1.27.

TEH

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

DOW up 400 points. Positivity in the morning. KLSE might start folking with many punters this morning to BUY on weakness. PUNTERS = GAMBLERS taking "calculated" risk. At least they do not merely buying TOTO or MAGNUM 4D/5D. They are in KLSE to look for quick-money ... someone commented that KLSE SHOULD NOT be used as a 'casino'. He might be right, but no one will listen to him. Afterall, why would you and me in KLSE, right? Certainly we are not so patriotic to support KLSE? Huh? Not me, I m not. I m in KLSE to learn how to trade/invest ... and ONE DAY, I will start gaining from it once I hv the edge. At the moment, watching it might be the best option for me ...

And watching this hilarous 'show'. Haha



RM5b market boost

THE government will double the size of Valuecap Sdn Bhd to RM10 billion to buy undervalued shares, providing support to the local stock market, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced yesterday. Read on ... here

8.15 am : Capital rm10k. Time frame : 1 day. Volume : > 10k lots

Stock picked : LionInd at 0.74 x 13500 = rm9990. Stop loss : 0.715 (L 0.72)

Reasons :
1. Buying On Weakness this morning(Dow Green, Gov injections).
2. Broker BUY call(and many read this 'call' will BUY).
3. Penny Stock (% of increase/decrease higher)
Back-up
4. Good fundamental (to accumulate?) ---> day traders DO NOT accumulate. I do.
5. Sector play for longer term

Warrants as at 30th Sept ---> 21st Oct

1. Annjoo-WB @ 0.69(L 0.68) - 2013 ---> 0.66 ---> 0.38(L 0.33)
2. Cresbld - WA @ 0.30 ( L 0.25) 2016 ---> 0.30 ---> 0.39(L 0.10)
3. OSK - WB @ 0.215(L 0.205) - 2010 ---> 0.25 ---> 0.165 (L 0.13)
4. MPHB - WB @ ----------------------------------> 0.15 (L 0.08)
5. Salcon - WA @ 0.165(L 0.16) - 2014 ---> 0.16 ---> 0.18 (L 0.15)
6. YTLPower @ 0.52 (L 0.465) - 2018 ---> 0.53 ---> 0.49 (L 0.46)
7. YunKong - WA @ 0.15 (L 0.06) - 2013 ---> 0.145 ---> 0.12 (L 0.06)


9.15am : It is GREEN everywhere.

9.30 am : Retrace a little from an overly-optimistic opening. Still up 6points.

10. 20am : LionInd 0.755, was touching 0.765 just now. We shall see if it closing up/down. Note that many O & G counters in GREEN as crude oil price up.

10.45 am : Waseong 1.29, Sapcres 0.78, Kencana 1.26, Dialog 0.825. All up. Noted.

12.15 pm : KLSE moving sideway, waiting for signals.

3.10 pm : AT 916+, KLSE moving sideway ... everyone is waiting for closing.

Risk Management

Trading or investing ... there are certain RISKS that we need to take and manage. I do strongly believe that we need to EQUIP ourselves very well(knowledge based), know our risk level and understand our own RISK management BEFORE we intend to trade/invest. Of coz if you are a loooong term investor, your risk will be lower, provided you are not greedy to BUY cheap stock without any research. That explain why many investors prefer to look into counters that well-covered and 'strong'. Good counters do not come cheap, obviously. Cheap stocks may not be strong. By having a looonger time-frame, we could be more confident with the stock we are buying. In this sense, we are looking at it as a business-man point of view. Is the company doing well? Can it with-stands the economic turnaround? How about its liquidity? Look into its business-plan(annual reports and such), do you THINK this company could achieve its target? etc etc ... we could read these in any business/economy-books. Learning to have our own EVALUATIONs reduces the RISKs we are taking .... if we intend to BUY a stock.

But, if we reduce the time-frame to mid-term(0.5 to 2 yrs), then our risk increases according. Can we manage the RISK? Still, buying GOOD counters and to swing-trade will certainly reduces the RISK. Our guesstimate on these good counters will be better of(and might be rewarding!) than those 'speculative' counters (example : KNM falling into this category at the moment). Since we have 0.5 - 2 yrs time frame, we certainly want to avoid speculative counters!! It too high of the RISK here. Can you manage? Hmm ....

Traders ... well, day-traders, week-traders ... contra? HIGH RISK if you dont hv the knowledge(fundamentally and technically) to go into such a play. Chances are you will lose your stake(worst, your emotions in play as you cant manage such high RISK). Then, the best advice for GENERAL(80% of them) public, never try such play. Playing with fire, do expect to get burn.

So, i m talking about EDUCATION to increase our capability of managing risk. KNOWLEDGE is power here(but CASH is KING). Once we hv that edge, we know we can manage the risk well, we TRY(while learning) to get into the real game ... Trading without that is like driving under influence, as i mentioned in my previous post. Just DONT do it. Hmm ...

Trading GOAL ... another point i will like to point it out. I believe in those GOOD trading books i read, which stating that every traders MUST have a trading GOAL before doing a trade. Seriously, I was as blind as many months ago(and get burned. OUCH!!) ... i learned my mistakes in WEEKLY basis, and my GOAL will be able to TRADE in 5yrs time!!

Yes, i hv just started to look into KLSE in Dec 2007, read that right, 10 months ONLY la. Since i m such a NOVICE, no one should listen to what i m buying. But, do READ my writings for EDUCATION purposes. I m a persistent and consistent with my learning. I do hv my trading GOAL written clearly, which i re-cite every now and then(especially when i 'lost' in a trade).

Remember, increasing your skills in management of RISK will also increase your chances when you trade/invest. For most lazy/greedy people around, dont trade at all. Markets are battlefields, in my opinion. Do yourself a favour ... get yourself educated, and market will still be there. Come back by then. All the best.

WCT - revisited





WCT caught attentions as it closed 11cents lower (Gamuda 11 cents up). Recently, it break the strong support at about 1.70, the next support is at about 1.30, tracing to mid-2006. It closed at 1.49 at 5pm just now, giving some trade chances??

Few ways you may want to trade/invest on the weakness at the moment.

INVEST

Let say you LIKE this counter(due to your own filterings), then you may want to place some % to nimble a little. Say i hv 20k aimed at the counter, the perhaps i will put 30% to buy tmr. If it reaches 1.30 and below, i can place another 30% to invest. If it still move downwards, say to its 5-yr low at 0.75, then place the last 40% into it!! Well, it is a general guideline if we REALLY focus to BUY one "good" counter. Once our trade done, do nothing ... and wait for the SUN to shine again ... many other factors to consider, as i dont like to hold forever!!

TRADE

You decided that this counter giving you some trading opportunities - then you need to read its candle-stick and interpret it according to your own guideline(look above graphs --- or use chart-nexus for more technical view check the intraday price movements too http://www.shareinvestor.com.my/tools.pl?action=factsheet&id=9679 (i m still learning that ...)). Maybe place 50% with a stop-loss(10% retracement?) to BUY tmr ... and as it moves up, on the way up place another 50% of your bets. Two entry points here(i m over-simplying it, actually). SELL once it reaches your target price. BEAR is still around and will be around for sometime, gaining 10% profit is becoming more difficult.

TEH : Personally, I wont BUY into WCT tmr as the sharp waterfall could crush me. But, with a day time, tmr i will MONITOR it movements(since i planned to trade it) before deciding if i m grabbing it next day or so. I could think of many other factors that might change my decision. Sometimes it is worth waiting for a day/two but at times, after one day, it flew off!! Hmm ... you cant win all the time, look around many more trading opportunitiies created daily/weekly. TIME and TIMING are two crucial ....

9.40pm : DOW in RED, downed 108+ points in the opening now. I seldom online at nights as I cant even afford an internet at home! Haha. To me, more interesting shows if KLSE in RED, if possible some panic-sellings. Time to trade tmr?

TEH

Monday, October 20, 2008

There are write-ups about KNM. Most are still positive about the company and have BUY call for this counter. At 0.615, it might open higher today but whether it will fly-off higher or even lower, no one could really guess. Now, if you could not know its direction, will you BUY this counter? Punters will ... speculating that MANY will be greedy for quick profit, BUY at 0.62 and sell it off IF it reaches 0.68-0.72. What IF ...

Say you are BUSY for the whole day to look into the intra-day movements, which counter will you BUY(say, u MUST buy!!) when the market opens and SELL before the market closes at 5pm?

Let me virtually BUY SCOMI at the opening price at 0.34. BUY 0.34 x 30000(300 lots) = RM10, 200. I shall calculate my gain/loss tmr. Noted.

http://www.scomigroup.com.my/

9.05am : KLCI opens GREEN and expected people rushing to BUY KNM and ScomiEng.

WHY I will BUY Scomi this morning? Some LOGIC telling me that someone read/heard about the NEWS about India(Mumbai) ...then, decided it is time to BUY into this counter. Wait ... many too BUY to take advantage of others greed. They will clear their positions once it reaches their target price. I m not given a choice. I m supposed to BUY at 9am and SELL at 5pm. Choose ONE counter from the hundreds/thousands in KLSE. All the best. Come on SCOMI, you can do it ... hehe

9.10am : KLCI in RED(more like it la) and going below 900. AT 899 at the moment. KNM at 0.57 eventho positive NEWS tried to push it up. Will you BUY KNM? I dont know ... Also not that Gamuda at 1.44, shedding 10cents.

9.35am : KLCI at 893+, moving to see the support at 880, sooner than later. SIME 6.15. LionInd 0.73. YTLPower 1.68. PPB lost 30cents. Noted.

10am : After an hour of trading, Maybank testing rm5 mark(L 4.94), PPB at 8.15 and PBBank at 8.45. Which strategy are you adopting now? 1. Cut Loss 2. Hold On or 3. Average Down? Whichever decision you are making today, it is entirely your rsponsibilities, right? Genting and AMMB lost 15 cents each. KLCI at 891 currently, will it move further down or rebound soon?

10.10am : KLCI touches the 'lucky' chinese number at 888.

10.50am : KLCI at 898, rebounded. Scomi that I 'bought' at 0.34 is at 0.35. If BUY with 34k, I will SELL it off, profiting 1k. Clear myself to go for lunch, and prepare for the afternoon trade(if any).

11.55am : KLCI back to breathe above 900, at 904 at the moment. Some bargain buying. Gamuda back to 1.52? PBBank flat at 8.65 but Maybank in GREEN. WOW.

12.30pm : We are back to 905. Some counters have recovered from the morning sell-down. Bargain buying? Gamuda, PPB, PBBank, Maybank and KLK back to GREEN. Overall, still a BEARish market, is it time to nimble GOOD counters? Your call, please.

http://www.knm.com.my/ at 0.645, up 3cents(intra-day low 0.57).

2.40pm : KLCI is green. Many BUYING and KNM at 0.655. Scomi at 0.355. Yeah ... come on, SCOMI ... maintain till 5pm or move higher, i could VIRTUALLY gain.

Well, since it is a BEAR market, if you are not buying, you could TRAIN your trading brain, virtually. And such needs discipline too, lying to yourself will not help you to improve your preceptions on market prices.

Be ready to clear and lock into your profit before DOW DOWN again these few days and it will slide back to the square one, or lower. This is trading ground ...

Constructions

I have not been tracing construction counters for a while now as I m still monitoring STEEL, O & G, and PLANTATIONS which are still moving down, reaching their bottoms soon.

Currently, I started to look into Finance/Banking counters as they are started to 'feel' the pinches from the financial crisis. Many foreign news giving our financial system kinda positive outlook(compared to regional).

Anyway, let us peep at few counters STILL in my stalking list:

1. IJM 4.10 (L 3.88)
2. YTL 5.90 (L 5.20)

These two giants will recover first if our market outlook start to see lights. Smaller ones:

3. WCT 1.60 (L1.56). Registered this morning.
4. Muhibbah 0.755 (L 0.645) Registered this morning. Rebounded.
5. Gamuda 1.55 (L 1.39). Registered this morning. Stalking currently for trading.
6. Sunway 0.70 ( L 0.66). Registered this morning.

With new lows created everyday, nothing for me to look into these counters just yet.

WCT




WCT's price has dropped steeply recently(i dont know the reasons as i hv NO intention to BUY any construction counters). Construction counters will still finding the bottoms. If I m not mistaken, they hv many projects in the middle-east. Due to the high cost of STEEL and other costs, construction counters have been dumped by investors. To make thing worst, we are facing hufe financial crunch globally. Some claimed that during the Ramaddhan month, constructions slowed down in the middle-east. As Raya is over, we shall see if those projects still going on, but some under reviewed. The RISK is higher(not only the cost) now than at the beginning of this year. SO, it is logical to THINK that WCT stock price could very likely to move further down. How much lower? Everyone's guess.

What do I think of WCT? I m not concentrating much at Construction Sector. I could only say that i will NOT touch any in BEAR market. But, WCT will be a good BUY when economies globally recovers ... At the moment, we shall monitor it prices and see if it bottom-out soon. Even that, I wont dare to touch. NOT until we chase the BEAR out....

No one could TIME the bottom. Look more into fundamentals of the company. Search more for its news ... focus on few points, filter it according to your personal criteria. WCT could NOT be a BAD buy(bankcrupt?), i believe.

Personally I like WCT as many positive reports written about it. By the way, our Sabah airport ... WCT's project. http://www.wct.com.my/CMS/Template/index.aspx

6.45pm : KLCI closed slight higher at 909.51 after the morning dive. Maybank and PBBank in green. We shall see DOW tonight. Also, wait to see if KLSE reaching its bottom ...

Scomi closed at 0.35. I 'bought' at 0.34, gained 1cent x 30, 000 = +rm300 bucks with 10k capital.

Anyway, there is always next opportunity to trade. Coastal 1.37 (L 1.36). What a fall!!

LionInd at 0.735(L 0.72) but LionDiv at 0.345 (L 0.33)

Bottoming out? WahSeong 1.26. ALERT!! ALERT!!

TEH

Sunday, October 19, 2008

NOTE : I m just a learner. DO NOT believe whatever you are reading here. If you really have to read, do it at your own RISK. Like your trades, you take FULL responsibilities of your own action. For those know-hows and sharing with me their pointers, thank you. I appreciate that. I m humbled. And will continue to learn ...

Sunday is the best day to get yourself READY if you are thinking of trading next week. Or perhaps refresh some concepts/theories that you are trying to digest/apply. For novices like me, it is also time to re-read those investing books.

No one in the right frame of mind would want to PREDICT what will happen to any counters, unless you are the 'insiders' of a certain company. To most of us, we read from MEDIA, which some news are trying to target certain groups of traders/investors. Yes, playing on the emotions of the public. Is that called manipulation too?

Sampai Hati by Spring



A swing trading book by Bill Wermine, in simple language will be a good recommended book to refresh the mind of traders. Sometimes we could get too engrossed with emotions that we are clouded by many influences. It is like driving under drugs/alcohol, from a mild one such coughing syrup to few pecks of Vodka. We are ADVISED not to drive and it is in fact wrong in the eyes of law, but you drive,anyway. You are advised not to trade duriing BEAR market, you INVEST in anyway. Perhaps, by analysing our weaknesses(we are only human), we could determine our TRADING mistakes and SHOULD not do the SAME mistakes, right?



PPB Group
If we have a 3-5 yrs time frame, it is wise to BUY into good counters. One of it is PPB. The graph easily shown that IF you bought at end-2003, it expired and you should have cleared you position during BEAR market. PPB trading below rm9 recently and at 8.45 at the moment.

Fundamentally, many of these counters are 'strong'. But due to the negative sentiments atmosphere, the prices are affected too. For long term players, it is time to get away from equity markets and do some planning on WHAT's next when the BULL is back. We need to get rid of the BEAR first. Gerakan, MCA and UMNO elections going on. Wait till PM steps down, wait till we know who will be our new DPM. Wait for Anwar/Pakatan to make their moves. As a long term investor, all we have is TIME. We could wait for 5yrs for prices to appreciate,surely we could wait for a better INVESTING environment.

Patience is virtue here. Let us wait ... while equip ourselves with KNOWLEDGE about certain GOOD counters.

I like the way 'sifu' SAMGOSS said in his blog : "LAN" vs TIEK". Those "LAN", no matter how cheap, never to touch. Those "TIEK" due to BAD sentiment, we need to monitor to buy.

Screening for stocks to stalk

Here are few of my NO-NO(taken out immediately).

1. PN17 and PN4 counters

2. Accounting/financial stories

3. Privatisation news/rumours

4. GLC with news/rumours

5. High PE > 20 and average > 10% of its sector PE

Stocks that we should stalk if :

1. When the sectors are bottoming

2. Stock PE <15.>

3. Fundamentally strong accounts

4. HIGH volume and widely covered

5. Proven good management over the years (>5 - 10 yrs)

6. High DY compared to peers

Steel Sectors(prices as at end of weeks)

1. AnnJoo - 2.45 --- 2.20 --- 1.65(L 1.61) ALERT!!

2. CSCSteel - 1.22 --- 1.04 --- 0.91(L 0.86)

3. HiapTeck - 1.10 --- 0.995 --- 0.87(L 0.86) ALERT!!

4. Huaan - 0.375 --- 0.32 --- 0.265 (L 0.255)

5. KianJoo - 1.17 --- 1.10 --- 1.06(L 1.06)

6. Kinsteel - 0.56 --- 0.49 --- 0.415(L 0.405) ALERT!!

7. LionInd - 1.26 --- 1.04 --- 0.75(L 0.75) ALERT!!

8. LSteel - 0.46 --- 0.43 --- 0.385(L 0.375)

9. Masteel 0.80-- 0.725 --- 0.64(L 0.615) ALERT!!

10. Mycron 0.50 --- 0.45 --- 0.395(L 0.37)

11. Perwaja - 1.25 --- 1.08 --- 0.875(L0.83)

12. PMetal - 1.03 --- 0.885 --- 0.78 (L 0.77)

13. SSteel - 1.92 --- 1.69 --- 1.60 (L 1.48) ALERT!!

Happy trading next week. NOT investing, mind you.

TEH

Note : Wah Seong bottoming? ALERT!!

Saturday, October 18, 2008

DOW downed by merely 100+ points, but we do assume that KLSE(and regional markets) will follow DJIA. KLCI moving to 900 points currently, and I m seeing 850 clearer now. Anything is possible EXCEPT a BULL run.



How the markets really work <--- sent to my e-mail by my best friend, Siva who happens to be a public listed company Financial Consultant. Just for a laugh. Thx, Siva. haha There are few possibilities on our next moves IF we are still holding to some stocks which we bought at much higher prices weeks/months ago.

1. CUT LOSS(even losing 30-50%??) : If you could see that the BEAR is still hungry and will be here for at least a year or so, then ... PAINFULLY cut losses. Salvage whatever capitals that you still have, as most of the stock prices WILL most probably going further down. For example : Maybank below rm3? Astro below 80cents? And so on. Then, IF you still love the babe(s) that you are currently holding tightly, you could acquire them in much LOWER price, right? New lows created EVERYDAY currently.




Let us take GAMUDA as a good example. The SHARP increased in price last NOV when gov announced the double-tracking project. It shot up to 5.70+. At the beginning of the year, LIN reduced his holding of the company. Many long-term investors fled. If you are HOLDING at 4.00+, will you CUT LOSS NOW?? A little too late, I guess. Yu are still holding even after LIN 'leaving'(he tried to convince investors by signing a 5-yr contract but you mean you trust his commitments?) meaning to say you BELIEVE Gamuda share price will hold. They do have billions of book values, tho.

In March, GOV 'lost' the election. The stock price zoomed down to 3.00 level. Many investors at this critical point knew that Gamuda could no longer trust the Gov to provide them projects. They do have huge exposure in the middle-east. Then, the privatisation STORIES propping up now and then. GREEDY punters betting on it to be realised and BUY into the counter. You may see that during a jump from 2.00+ to 3.00+. They waited and waited for more POSITIVE news of the privatisation. They are still WAITING NOW if they have not CUT LOSS.

TEH : Personally, I do not like Gamuda as it has HIGH PE value. Also, it plays on news. But, the privatisation stories give the know-hows traders an opportunity to trade. There are differences between TRADERS and INVESTORS. IF you DO NOT know the differences, I could say tht you are NOT supposed to be in markets (may it be equities, comodities ..).

The whole financial crisis started to show its ugly manner ... NOTHING spared. The foreign funds flowing out of many stocks. We see 'waterfalls' everywhere ... CUT LOSS, someone yelled but many still holding on.

It started to trade below 2.00 at OCT 7th, just 10 days ago. Last chance to CUT LOSS, actually. Some still HOLDING on it as they bought at rm3-4!!. That is 30-50% loss. Some broker houses still have a BUY call on Gamuda LAST WEEK!!


YESTERDAY, Gamuda made headline, stealing the show from KNM. It dropped 31cents, to close at 1.54. On Monday, someone will BUY this CHEAP counter as someone else PAINFULLY release this counter, at a loss not less than 20%(it dropped 16.8% yesterday, mind u). CUT LOSS on Monday could be VERY painful but it still a MUST if you could not hold on for LOOONG term. But, you need BUYERS to buy at the price you wanted to throw. Someone will BUY Gamuda on Monday, dont worry.


2. HOLD ON( and pray?) : Whatever stocks that we have bought(for whatever reasons), and since it has been dropping drastically, but you DO NOT need the money ... then we can adopt a HOLD ON 'strategy'. ONE DAY, it might realise BACK to the value that we have bought, or even higher? We are optimistic(i m NOT, sorry to say that) that this BEAR market will be over pretty soon. So, we will HOLD ON for another 3-5 yrs with a hope that this company will NOT closed down/bankcrupt. Praying becoming our main rituals ... to me, it is NOT economically or logically wise. Those holding-on have a belief that situation may NOT be as bad as written. They believe it will be short-term bear before the bull is back soon, perhaps next year? They want to believe that those BAILOUTs will cushion the fall and in fact giving them the bouncing edge. Hold-on as it will bounce, someday.

Some good counters that we bought months ago ALSO experiencing the harsh bashing.



Take Public Bank as a good example. Let us assume that you are a LONG term investor(5 to 10 yrs) and smartly bought at 9.50 when it fell on March. Because you are a long term investor, you do not monitor much of the market(the REAL looong term investor SHOULD have cleared their positions due to the BEAR). PPBank moved up to 11.50 in the uncertain global financial situation and in the midst of our political instabilities.

One by one, financial institutions in US collapsing and HUGE bailouts injected. Even as loooong term investor, will you HOLD ON to PPBank? It is trading below rm8 currently and the financial TSUNAMI has NOT even reach our shore yet. Logically, do you think PPBank could hold-on or MOVE UP? Otherwise, perhaps it MIGHT move down? Is it wise to HOLD?

TEH : Personally, I like this stock. Who wont? High dividend, well-managed(Tan Sri TEH, my related-uncle?) and ....

Let us say PPBank moving below rm5, will you BUY and to hold forever? *piak* Someone slapped me, and yelling it is NOT POSSIBLE. How can PPBank move below rm5? Dont get me wrong if you really BOUGHT PPBank at 9.50, i envied your strength to HOLD ON till today. I m merely giving EXAMPLE and it is hypothetical. Sorry to say that I think it is POSSIBLE. If you are a looong term player, you would hv get out long before JAN 2008(after hearing the financial crisis in US, dont you think it will affect our finance environment too, it is a matter of time?)

So, for those with hold-forever mentality, I do hope you will have more bullets to buy PPBank at 4.50. As you could BUY PPBank at 9.50, i dont see any LOGIC you woont accumulate it at 4.50!! That is a rm5 discount, u know.

TEH : Personally, I will look into PPBank again after the financial TSUNAMI and it is trading below rm5.(please calculate its PE value and 'fair' value yourself). THEN, i will BUY to hold-forever! Haha. I m just kidding ...

3. Averaging down : NOW, you have no choice ... you have bought a stock which is about 30-50% higher priced that its current price. You may think of averaging down. Your emotions in play here, "Ce-la-ka(Malay way of cursing) I bought at so high price, it didnt respect me and dropped till no value now." To overcome your anguish and console yourself, you decided to BUY next monday so that you could(hopefully) average out this stock.

Let us take KNM as a good example. It has topped as the most actively traded counter for past weeks!! After the split, it has been moving downward BUT many are VERY optimistic about this counter(at one point, I admit i 'saw' its prospect!!) and many BUY calls on this one, KNM. It is really like a hidden treasure.

Then, without any problem, it started to trade below rm1, the penny-stock world. At 98cents, it is the BEST buy in KLSE market. Everyone RUSHING to get a hold of this babe.

Say you have bought at 0.90(for whatever reason only known to you), and it closed at 0.615 yesterday. On thursday, KNM staged the most dramatic moves(read my Thu's writings). OK, now what? You have bought at 0.90 only to realise that it has moved to 0.60 level (0.7 level on thu) and potentially moving LOWER next week/month. Where is the bottom? You get frustrated and to AVERAGE DOWN, you decided to BUY next week, hoping it could rebound to yout target average price(If you dont even know how to calculate the averaging price, please take MATHS TUITION from me, i m serious). At what price should we AVERAGE down KNM, then? 0.50? 0.45? Is there a bottom to this?

Perhaps, someone will average down at 0.50, then 0.45 and follow by 0.40 and so on ... provided you have PLANNED it that way before you bought the stock. Most of these jokers do not have a plan. I WAS one of them!!

TEH : Personally, I never like KNM for its HIGH PE and its high links with gov. Its price fluctuation scare the hell out of me. I m a chicken. Haha. But, KNM is giving many traders(the know-hows) a GREAT opportunity to trade and gain! With many losing money on this counter, definitely someone is GAINING, right? THINK ... who could that be? Smart money?

Well, if you wish to average down on any stocks during BEAR market(a very huge one this time, u know), all the best. If you really don know whether you should or not to average down, it shows you DONT KNOW anything about trading/investing. I m in NO position to give anyone any advice. Too many GREEDY, IGNORANT and FEARFUL people around, they will NEVER learn. The smart ones taking advantage on them. That explain WHY share prices are irrational as PEOPLE are irrational when it comes to money!!

4. Please LET ME KNOW what are your strategies, if any, IF you are really holding on to stocks that you bought at 30-50% higher priced AND none of the THREE points I could think of. I do appreciate any input. Thx.

Please DONT ask me which counter to BUY. It is the most irresponsible question as a trader/investor. Questions should be market related. And opinions, mere opinions, should be honestly shared. BUY at your own risk.

Here is a song dedicated to those asking me : WHAT counter to BUY ar?

How will I know? by Whitney Houston.




Reply to the comment : Thanks for the input. I do appreciate HONEST opinions. Yes, PPBank may NOT go below rm5, but i m just pointing it HYPOTHETICALLY. In fact, if PPBank really reaches 4.50, I will seriously looking to BUY. That is honest.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is buying U.S. stocks, he wrote in an opinion column in the New York Times. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett wrote in the paper.

TEH

p/s : IF I know, i wont be sitting here writing blog, k?