Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Shawn Colvin - Sunny Came Home
Where have all the cowboys gone - Paula Cole
Tori Amos - Winter
May It Be - Enya
Tatu - 30 minutes
Pink - Family Portrait
Evanescence - My Immortal
Cranberries - Ode to My Family
Avril Lavigne - When You're Gone
Britney Spears - Piece of me
Colbie Caillat - Bubbly
Eurythmics - Sweet Dreams
Janet Jackson - If
Roxette- Crash! Boom! Bang!
Gwen Stefani - 4 in the morning
THE world’s stock markets, including Malaysia’s, have recovered lately.
Some analysts have viewed this recovery as window dressing activities while others have called it bear market rallies.
TEH : Whatever they call it, it is a rebound and we should ride the short-term tide.
And there are those who wonder whether we have seen the worst.
TEH : Obviously, NO. Worst is yet to come. Wait for 2Q2009 reports.
They are eager to know whether the current stock market level has reflected all the negative news, like the sharp drop in consumer spending, higher unemployment rates or lower sales and lower profits for most of the listed companies in the coming corporate result announcements.
Every investor wants to know when will the market recovers.
Some investors may be excited about the current stock market level as a lot of good quality stocks have been hammered down to attractive levels, and are keen to start accumulating them.
However, if the stock market continues to dip for long periods, certain investors may run out of “bullets” to average down their purchasing prices.
TEH : Don't average down. CUT loss is the game in BEAR market, if your buyings are against you. Accept small defeats, keep the bullets for greater war.
Then, they will start losing interest in the stock market as they do not have cash to purchase further and their earlier purchases also start to show losses.
TEH : Then, they need to LEARN first. EDUCATE yourself.
We need to prepare ourselves for the market turnaround.
TEH : Yes, fully agreed.
However, we need to be patient and wait for the right time to invest.
TEH : Hmm ... difficult to know the RIGHT time. Use strategies and plan out your buyings.
In this article, we will look into the past two major downcycles: the 1998 crash and 2000 crash versus the current 2008 crash.
From the table, it can be seen that the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled by almost 80% in a period of 18 months during the 1998 crash versus a drop of 45% in a period of 13 months during the 2000 crash.
The percentage drop and duration of the 2000 crash were much less severe and shorter compared to the 1998 crash.
For the current 2008 crash, our KLCI has plunged by 47% to its lowest level of 801 points on Oct 28.
If investors believe that the current crash is quite similar to the 2000 crash, then we may have seen the worst as the current percentage drop of 47% is near the 2000 crash of 45%.
However, if the 2008 crash mirrors the 1998 crash, then we may have to wait until the KLCI touches about the 300-point level (assuming the same 79.4% drop in the 1998 crash) before we can see any real recovery.
TEH : I think KLCI will not see 300-points. I m looking at 650, even that I m being very conservative.
Hence, we may have to wait for another nine months or until September 2009 (assuming the same duration of 18 months).
TEH : That is what most analysts predicting the location of 2008 crash bottom.
We do not think the 2008 crash is similar to the 1998 crash.
TEH : Yes, agreed too. It is DEFINITELY not the same. In 1998 crash, it was ASIAN financial crisis, it was regional and DIRECT into our financial systems. As we all know, 2008 crash is due to the sub-prime crisis started in US housing last year. Of course the domino-effects from there were tremendous. We are LESS affected by it(compared to Europe, Singapore and Hong Kong, for examples) as we are so-called DUMB enough not to know about their 'products'. Ignorance is a BLISS here. So, we are less exposed. BNM ... betul ka?
Our current economic situation, like central bank reserves, the health of the banking sector as well as economic fundamentals, are much better compared to 1998. However, as mentioned earlier, we need to prepare ourselves for the worst.
TEH : YUP. Double-yup!!
What to expect from here on?
Our market will try to absorb all the negative news.
As long as the market continues to drop as a result of negative news, we know we have not seen the bottom yet.
TEH : Yes, that is an important indicator too when we try to look for its bottom.
We have to wait for the day when the stock market refuses to come down even when it is loaded with massive negative news; that should be the right time to buy.
Unfortunately, based on our past observations, by then most investors may not have any more cash to purchase or they will still worry about the economic situation.
TEH : I might be VERY NEW and NEVER have any experiences in any bull-runs, but currently I m dealing with a BEAR market. I think we all SHOULD listen to those know-how. So, I will listen to him. Yes, I agreed.
Investors need to understand that stock market cycles are always ahead of economic cycles.
Normally, when the stock market hits the bottom, the economic situation is uncertain or is still getting worse.
TEH : Yes, about 6 months ahead. So, by the time economy recovers, markets have bottom-out.
Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser licensed by the Securities Commission and managing partner of MRR Consulting
9.15 am : Q-ing for Sime-cj at 0.11 and LCL at 0.695. Nice moves by LionInd.
10.30 am : KLCI at 882 with very thin volume. New Year Eve.
11.10 am : Turnover just reached rm100m after 2 hours trading!!
11.45 am : Done with Sime-cg moments ago. 33k units at 0.12(thought I could get at 0.11 ... never mind). I like its mom's movement at the moment ... sleak.
12.02pm : Someone just bought 100,000 units of Resorts at 2.24 = RM224,000. A quarter million of dollars, not for you and me. These are some big boss or fund managers. Sometimes I do wonder who could that be ...
2.40 pm : KLCI at 884. Turnover RM167m only.
3.00 pm : Suddenly there is a dive, Sime, IOI, Genting, Resorts, Commerz ... all in REDS. KLCI at 877.77
3.10 pm : KLCI at 876. Q-ing for WCT-wb at 0.23. Clearing most of my holdings too but KLSE diving, so I dont think so I could clear them. Need to wait for next year!!
4.00 pm : Sime-cg moves down to 0.115.
5.05 pm : KLCI FINALLY closed for 2008 at 876.75.
10.05 pm : As many preparing to celebrate New Year, I m busy closing my personal trading accounts!! Well, 2008 is NOT a good year for investors. I still lost about 25% of my capital despite many gains for past 4 months!! That was due to my HUGE cut lost in April and August. Anyway, excited to start a new year with 20% extra knowledge I hv accumulated in the whole year of 2008.
Yes, as I hv mentioned, I m migrating to SGX(may be after CNY) in stages. I still hv my KLSE babes with me. I still enjoy being in KLSE playground and especially I m currently profitting from it. In BEAR market, gaining 10% per month is NOT easy. But surely VERY possible with hard-work and discipline.
May the BULL year of 2009 bring us all the best of luck.
HAPPY NEW YEAR all. Thank You.
Don't dream It's over-Crowded House
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Is the end results important? YES! Is the results everything? NO!
Results are NOTHING
PMR results just released and you could ALWAYS see our students getting better and better results each year!! Ever wonder WHY? 6% obtained ALL "A"s. Hmm ... I m one RARE lecturer who DO NOT bother what my students get. Not that I don't care, but I know their results are just a passport for the next level of Education. If they learn NOTHING else except GOOD results, they are a REAL failure to me. Of coz their parents and our STUPID society might want to argue about this.
Hey, ever heard of all those excellent students in PMR, SPM or whatever level living GOOD and HAPPY in their lives? Ok ok ... they might be doctors, engineers, accountants or whatever their PARENTS want them to be, but ... don't deny that YOU feel STUPID(regretting is too late, ok?) forcing your kids to get all the "A"s. Not forgetting spending TONNES of $$$ for their "education". What they obtained are called PAPER qualifications in order for them to WORK for others. Do you think they are SMART enough to earn THAT amount of $$$ you so-called invested in their 'education"? Get it right ... you are PAYING the price of that passport for them to work. Pathetic!! Many can't even be independent enough to THINK. Hmm...
I m not going to spark a debate with anyone about how I see my stupid surrounding parents(some are really pitiful as they REALLY thought excellent exams results are EVERYTHING!!) struggling to understand the whole meaning of education. Well, those of our students WILL be parents soon and they will REPEAT what their parents done to them!! Unless one fine day their minds open, the stupidity-cycle continues ... I have argued with my fella-teachers and recently with the head-master. KITA mahu semua pelajar dapat pangkat A, jika boleh. (We want ALL out students to get A, if possible). Stupid. Period.
Education is a journey
Ok, I m not going to expose your stupidity(and ignorance in terms of education). I m more into EDUCATION for INVESTING. As you could see, we DO NOT need high IQ people to excel in INVESTING. Ask Warren Buffett!!
I admit that I might be at the higher end of the IQ normal curve. Our average Malaysians IQ is at 98, lower that Singaporeans at average of 104 and Hong-Kies at 108. That is the stats I obtained years ago. I m not sure if there is a decrease in our population average in IQ(some of our MPs DEFINITELY below 98), but I wont be surprise. Afterall, every year we producing SO MANY scoring "A"s without appreciating the journey of their education!!
Higher IQ just giving me a slight advantage ... that is ability to analyse a little faster and could see clearer the whole pictures of the situation. BUT that is all the advantage, I could say. Also, being strong in my Mathematics helps a little. I could comprehend charts/graphs easier than normal humanoids. I could calculate the averages faster and could understand the meaning of compound interest and its wonder, just a little better than normal. I m NOT being humble here, but stating a fact that IQ and MATHS do not play a big role in INVESTING!!
What are the ingredients then?
Control your thoughts
I believe we have READ enough to know how crucially important our CHARACTERS and ATTITUDES in our lives. Some books used the term EQ(Emotional Quotient) and some said it is FQ(Financial Quotient). So, we need to recognise that to be SUCCESSFUL in investment, we don't have to be a rocket scientist(or Astro-naut). Just a normal IQ is needed and essential. Well, i have to say that many of our Malaysians IQ below 90(those without many simple common-sense) ... chances will be slimmer to succeed in investment.
For example those queue-ing in a LOOONG queue at TOTO/MAGNUM, in the cramped non-aircond shoplot while smoking!! You can't help this LOWER cow-dung head person, even if you want, can you? Yeah right, enlighten when they strike jackpot. Hmm ...
Anyway, we need recognise the importance of our EQ and FQ. You can't STUDY from text-book about PATIeNCE, can you? Or pro-active or taking initiative? How do you READ from book to be HONEST? In your MORAL subject in SPM? Haha. I m such a cynic. Hehe
THINK POSITIVE in every aspect of our lives, including when we invest/trade. So, help yourself with many many motivational books ...
The Education just begin ...
Once you could do that : Welcome to investment world. It is NOT the other way round. You may be an Economic guru, but if you do not have the RIGHT mentality, you will NOT know how to apply your theories. Ask Economics lecturers/teachers(surely they cant be millionaires?).
Here I would like to list the books I read for past one year. To me, it is an INVESTMENT in myself, my education.
1. Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert T. Kiyosaki
2. The Millionaire In Me by Azizi Ali
3. How You Can Get Rich from Property and Stock Markets by Milan Doshi
4. Idiot's Guide to Reaching Your Goals
5. Personal Financial Planning in Malaysia by BK Lee and Andy Ong
6. The Money Book by CAP
7. Money Is My Friend by Phil Laut
8. Cash Is King by Yeo Keng Un
9. I Love Stocks by Pauline Yong
10. Investing During Bull and Bear Markkets by Dr Othman Yong
11. Essential Stock Investment Strategies by Ho Kok Mun
12. Everything Technical Analysis by Jacinta Chan
13. How You Can Invest Like the Very Rich by Martin Wong
14. How You Can Strike Rich in Stocks by Bill Wermine
15. Millionaire Exit Strategies by Bill Wermine
16. Secrets of Millionaire Investors by Adam Khoo and Conrad A Lim
17. Guide To Investing by Robert T.K and Sharon L.L
18. Top Moneytips For Malaysians by KC Lau
.... and many more from library. As for magazines, I only buy the weekly THE EDGE(stopped since last week!!) foor a year, without a miss. Other magazines, I will read it in the library such as Business Malaysia, Economist, Personal Money and such. Of coz I read a lot through internet. Also reports from broker houses : OSK, CIMB, JPMorgan, UBS.
With that said, my EDUCATION reached 20% of what I m setting out to obtain. 20% as I m setting my GOAL for 5 years. Yes, well-planned ahead. Of coz I do know MANY in KLSE much longer than me but do not see the needs to educate themselves. We all have our own goals, k? To me, I love Education ... so, I want to end-up teaching some about INVESTMENT, or may be trading(I won't charge high fees as by then I SHOULD gained much from the markets?).
Hence, while I m learning ... I m also teaching here in my BLOG!! Hehe. The lessons are FREE. It is meant to be shared as I believe WE ALL learn from each other. Some experienced ones will share their opinions ... Thanks again for those help me along. God Bless.
Make this your RESOLUTION : I WANT TO LEARN ABOUT INVESTMENT. You will not regret that as next year the global economies present us the opportunities to gain, financially. DONT DREAM ... start doing. ASK around, or ask me how to start ... JUST DO IT.
HAPPY NEW YEAR, 2009.
p/s: Sorry as I might sound a little FRUSTRATED when I mentioned about EDUCATION. I m living with so many un-educated people around in education line?
7.15 am : ASX200 opens green. Diving down and losing 20 points. KLSE might be very quiet today as many still in holiday mood.
8.55 am : Q-ing for Sime-cg at 0.11. Nothing else ... wait and see ...
10.45 am : OSK platform downed this morning. KLCI at 876, up 8 points due to Plantation play. Hmm ... someone read my blog and BUY plantation counters. Hehe. Just kidding ... I don't think so I would get Sime-cg at 0.11, but clearing my remaining IOI-cj at 0.16.
Scomi shown some movement too. Noted.
11.25 am : UP 153, Down 153. Interesting ... KLCI at 874. I m at Sabah State Library, actually. Tonnes of Economic Books beside me ... and I m reading about DEFLATION, a term used for opposite of INFLATION. China might be facing deflation ... what is the impact of such etc etc? So, I m adding some Economic knowledge inside my head.
11.45 am : Suddenly there is a push-up .. KLCI at 878.
11.55 am : GPacket and Latexx still in play. If you observe closely at the GPac trades, it is artificially planted in many occasions. So, I think someone is manipulating this counter. Everyone benefit substantial amount IF you bought it last week, but I think it is time to clear? Take profit, it touches 1.26 just now ... retraced to 1.07 before resting at 1.14 now. Look at the amount in each queue ... don't get trap, my opinion.
WCT in RED ... I didnt read local news, so I don't know why WCT in red with active trades. I might go for its warrant later. Need to check and do some homework.
Genting is GREEN in heavy trade this morning. So, Genting-cm would be a good punt. At 0.06-0.065, won't mind punt into it. Hmm ...
12.25 pm : KLCI still at 876 with only RM156m of turnover, still better than X'mas eve. Hmm ... lunch time.
2.45 pm : 江淑娜 — 问情
3.20 pm : KLCI at 878.
3.40 pm : No activities in KLSE. Q-ing for Sime-cg at 0.11, Hevea at 0.12 and WCT-wb at 0.25. I don't think so my baits will be taken today in such a thin trades.
I m reading a simple book entitled "CASH IS KING" by Yeo Keng Un(Pelanduk Publications)
4.05 pm : I bought another 20k units of IOI-cj at 0.14 just now. Making the tally back to 50k units.
Cash is King, that is true for most of majority who do not into trading markets. Cash will come handy when MALAYSIA ON SALES next year. I m not talking about shopping(only financial retarded people will spend $$ buying things they do not need now! Unless you are the 10% RICH people?). In fact, the RICH ones getting very excited as they are going to use their CASH to shop for businesses, properties and cheap stocks!
For the majority of us, SAVE that CASH ... be smart.
4.20 pm : KLCI at 878. Turnover at RM300m only.
4.30 pm : Q-ing for LCL at 0.70 ... reaching there.
5.00 pm : KLCI closed higher at 881.63, gained 14.28 points. Some window-dressing and soft year-end rally going on? IOI, Genting, Tenaga and Sime ... the giants pushed KLCI up today.
PiCorp, IE, GPacket, GPerak being 'goreng-ed' today. Nope, I m surely not in such a game, tho I do punt. Hehe
Time to go jogging with my son. New year soon ... hehe
Monday, December 29, 2008
Ten Stock Picks for 2009
1. BHIC by Affin
2. Commerz by RHB
3. Dialog by MIDF
4. IGB by HDBS
5. IOICorp by Avenue
6. QL by OSK
7. MMCCorp by Fortress
8. TanChong by KAF
9. Top Glove by Meridien
10. Tanjong by TA
The time frame is one-year. Will the picked stocks outperform the KLCI by end of 2009? The highlighted ones are in my stalking list. Could'nt really tell WHICH one(of the ten) is my favourite if I m going to BUY only one from the list in 2009. Even that, I will only look into KLSE again in 3Q2009, with reports predicting KLSE should be at its bottom by then. We shall see ...
GoodMan Group : At AUD0.69, recovering now. If AUZ on rally, I won't hesitate to grab GMG as it could easily appreciate 10-20% in one month!! Mind you, this property player came down from 52-week high of almost AUD5. I need to time WHEN to convert RM to AUD, taking advantage on the weakness of AUD, and its stock prices. GMG might be my first buy.
10.05 am : GMG at 0.73, up almost 5% now.
KLSE closed today for Awal Muharam, a public holiday in Malaysia. ASX200 opens higher by 50+points. RIO.AX at 37.37, in green too.
Sam Lee Sheng Jie - Zui Jing
10.45 am : ASX200 touching RED now. SGX up 13 points. DBS at 8.22, downed more than 10%.
1.15 pm : CNOOC at HKD 6.85. It dived from HKD10 to below HKD4 ... now recovering nicely.
2.00 pm : Peter Schiff on Impending Economic Collapse
Peter Schiff Sees More Pain Ahead - There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.
The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months.
To his credit, Schiff isn't declaring victory, noting "100% of my forecast hasn't panned out," most notably "a major collapse in the dollar" that leads to a spike commodity prices.As discussed in the accompanying video, Schiff believes the recent dollar rally and commodity price weakness will prove temporary.
2.45 pm : ASX200 closed 38.90 points higher. SGX up 20points at the moment. As expected the volumes are very thin.
5.45 pm : STI closed higher by 54.96 points. GoldenAgr at 0.23; IndoAgri at 0.515; GenInt 0.455; DBS at 8.59; OCBC at 4.91; CapitaLand at 3.07, RafflesEdu at 0.58.
Sam Lee Sheng Jie - Chi Xin Jue Dui
FTSE100 up 2% in the early opening.
11.05 pm : DOW opens slightly higher but dived down now. ROH trading at USD49, in active trades losing more than 20%. Interesting ...
11.25 pm : DOW down by 60 points now.
11.50 pm : DOW down by 80 points now.
12.30 am : DOW down by 97.97 points.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
ECM Libra has maintained an overweight rating on the plantation sector, as the recovery of crude palm oil (CPO) prices is in sight, once production starts to ease off and the stock level begins to decline.
There are also signs that CPO prices are decoupling from the weakening crude oil prices, as prices have been holding steady at around RM1,500 per tonne despite oil prices plummeting to US$30 (RM105) per barrel, said ECM Libra in its weekly review of the plantation sector.
"We believe that CPO prices are finally being influenced by their own fundamentals - and given that less than 5% of total palm oil production are being used for biodiesel, the biodiesel effect is finally losing its flavour," said ECM Libra.
Most plantation companies have staged a mild recovery in share prices over the week, led by IOI Corp Bhd which gained 11.3%. Others companies included Asiatic Development Bhd which was up by 9.8%, and KLK Bhd which went up 7.1%.
The recovery in share prices of plantation majors in the past week came despite a 3.4% fall in CPO price from RM1,590 to RM1,536. For 2009, the average CPO price is expected to hover around RM2,175 per tonne.
I m still very much into Plantation as a sector. As we all could see, though at a point CPO and Crude Oil were moving in tandem, at the moment CPO iss quite steady at rm1500 level. Crude Oil are still retracing and trading below US40 now. Many plantation stocks in KLSE have been BADLY battered. Some blue-chip counters are at very attractive level. With an economic downturn still very large at the backdrop, we should still be very cautious in our trading.
IOICorp has been the top pick by many broker houses in their reports. Asiatic is another good counter to consider, if you wish to be in Plantation play. KLK and Sime are the giants, lagging behind but KLK making moves too recently. I do still like HSPlant(her mom's price breached rm2.00 recently).
All in all, I have chosen to play with a call-warrant and didnt doubt to grab IOI-cj when it was offered. I m still looking at Sime-cg. IOI-cj is my first call-warrant. I bought only 50k units at 0.12 ... and sold 20k at 0.155. It touched 0.165, actually. At the moment, market is in holiday mood, so I shall keep the other 30k to be cleared at 0.165 and above, hopefully.
What about Sime-cg? Well, I was q-ing for it at 0.11 for past few trading days. It was offered 0.12(if I m not mistaken) by OSK. I guess I will still stick with my play on plantation, with Sime-cg at 0.11(or 0.115), if possible. If not, never mind ... many more in my mind, anyway. Hehe
As you can see, America’s steepest stock market drops and most painful periods of economic decline were actually incredible opportunities for savvy investors who had the wisdom and temperament to stay the course
Sunday morning ... time to scan through the stocks that might shown some interesting features(such as bottoming, bottom-out, diving, sliding or any indications that it is going south!). At the moment, as KLSE retracing back to 850 level(or might be lower), you could see many stocks are reaching back to their lower camps respectively.
Some stocks shooting up : GPacket, Latexx, DBhd ... being 'goreng' up. I m still NOT so good in 'goreng'-ing, so I will be too cautious with these stocks. MKLand too.
陳奕迅 - 幸福摩天輪
Olympia : At 0.195, I was stalking this babe 2 weeks ago when it was at 0.14-015 level, but forgotten about it!! So, jotting it here as at 0.17-0.18 is still a very good entry point. If you know-how to see the beauty of the chart, you could appreciate that it could still appreciate another 10% with a push from KLSE, of coz.
Scomi : At 0.335 level, Scomi caught my attention again. Support at 0.28, Scomi might retrace a little bit further down. May be I could queue for it at 0.30 level. And if there is a CNY Rally(quite unlikely from the way I look at it), gaining 10% from this one is NOT that hard. Just be patient and play safe. Yes, I have lost to Scomi 3 times. I hv no intention to lose to the same player again and again. This time I will be playing white, I need to see the back-drop. That is currently in my mind ... while I m trying to clear my holdings before CNY.
KNM : At 0.40 level, with strong support at 0.39, many think that KNM could stage a rebound soon. I m not so sure about that(as I m not strong in my TA), but I do hope I could clear this one soon. Averaging at 0.445, I do need to be patient. Well, KNM is my highest $$ placed in a counter so far, at the moment. I would'nt mind clearing it slightly lower. We shall see ...
Ramunia : At 0.315, Ramunia's support at 0.30 ... and I think 0.305 is a good buy into this badly battered counter. Yes, there is still value in this company but most investors do not look too far ahead. With crude oil expected to go lower, O & G counters will certainly be hurt. Ramunia, like KNM has been building a base at current level and any siign of market-bullish rally could easily push it up above 10% increment. Personally I won't buy into this one ... well, it is still a second-boarder. Need to change my thinking about these.
Hubline : At 0.21, it touched the low of 0.195. This is another counter building a base around this level, with an increasing interest. Grabbing it at 0.20 and expecting to clear it at 0.22 is not that difficult, that is 10% increase, mind you.
Alam : At 0.635, it has started to move ... a good entry point will be at 0.58-0.60. It touched 0.52 on the 12th DEC, but shooting up strongly and finding strength. Going back to 0.70-0.80 is very like, if there is a momentum in KLSE. At the moment, the increase upward momentum is good. Should ride on it ...
WTK : At 0.735, it is still trying to halt its downward movements. Newest lows created weekly. Not time to buy yet, need a few more trading days to see if it's reaching its bottom. No one could know what the bottom-price could be, but this 'waterfall' attracts me last week when I noticed that it came to penny-stock world easily ... Worth stalking. Do notice its high volume recently.
Hevea : At 0.13, touched its historical low at 0.125. I saw one of the KLSE-blogger written about this one, and taken a look. Interesting as it came down from 0.80 level to 0.24 level and suddenly zoomed to 0.12 level now!! As it is still searching for its bottom, it worth stalking.
Well, these are only a few stocks that I m stalk and scanned last night. I have narrowed it to few sectors only. And all are in penny-world. Airasia, LionInd and many more active penny-stocks worth stalking too. If you have the TIME, stalking more than only one/two counters will give you the higher advantages. But, the dis-advantage will be difficulties in making-up your mind WHICH one to grab. That I m still learning ...
Also note that ALL the counters I listed above could only move further up 10% easily IF there is a PUSH in KLSE. Volume is aVERY important ingredient in trading.
The Motley Fool
5 Ways You Can Make the Next 5 Years the Most Profitable of Your Entire Life
Dear Fellow Investor,
“If prices keep looking attractive, my net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.”
Those aren’t my words -- they’re Warren Buffett’s.
And they’re the reason I’m convinced that right now investors like you and me are face-to-face with one of the most incredible investment opportunities we’ll see in our lifetime.
In his recent op-ed piece for The New York Times, Buffett points out that the unprecedented wave of fear gripping the market has even our country’s most sound businesses selling for just a fraction of what they’re worth.
Yet he has complete confidence that “most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10, and 20 years from now.”
That’s why he’s buying stocks right now -- and why you should be, too.
Of course, investors like us don’t have the time, resources, or cash cushion that Warren Buffett does…
Listen ... READ my yesterday's posting AGAIN, and you SHOULD take advantage on the financial situation now to PROFIT as much as possible. You may say you know nothing BUT by being ignorant, you have been doing injustice to yourslef, financially. Having the stronger financial position will help people you loved, people surround you too. Just do something ... don't be STUPID.
In fact, without 'gamblers', SMART money could'nt benefit from their stupidity, right? Then, China SSE index won't dived from unreasonable 6000 plus points to below 2000 points!! Did you watch Bloomberg or China Today?? Thousands lost their life-savings!! Should I pity them or say ... serve you right for being greedy, yet ignorant?
BUT, if you know HOW to LEARN what you need to take advantage on the situation, you wouuld be as excited as I m now. Imagine your rm50k turn into half a million or more(depending on your knowledge and some luck?). For beginners, rm5k into rm50k? If I were you, i will sell off my VIOS now, buy a second-hand Kancil for personal transportation. Every dollar saved could be doubled/tripled or more in 5 years time!! EXCITED?? I AM!! hehe
Economic News : INDIA
Indian exporters have cut about 65,500 jobs as recession in the US and Europe, the nation’s biggest markets, damped overseas demand for products. A sample survey conducted by the department of commerce between August and October for 121 export-oriented companies revealed the loss of jobs, both direct and indirect. India’s exports fell in October for the first time in seven years. Flagging exports and waning domestic demand are forcing companies to cut production, weakening growth in an economy expected by the central bank to expand at the slowest pace in four years. (Bloomberg)
US housing news
US builders broke ground in November on the fewest new homes since record-keeping began, signaling the housing slump will extend into a fourth year. Construction starts on housing fell 18.9% last month to an annual rate of 625,000 that was the lowest since the government started compiling statistics in 1959, the Commerce Department said. Dwindling sales and multiplying foreclosures are forcing builders to hold off starting new homes. Decreases in construction spending continue to drag on the economy, increasing the odds of a prolonged recession. (Bloomberg)
p/s : Eason Chan, one of my favourite male singer. I like most of his songs. Hehe.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
It is written in simple language but too GENERAL. Malaysians are generally spoon-fed. You don't just get them fork and spoon and expect them to know how to use them, do you? Even after you took a simple part of the book to share, you will still struggle to explain so-so many ALIEN words to them. It is a huge challenge as I see it. Besides, asking them NOT to use their money is something NOT so good to do, right?
Yes, they are in deficits budget(and they do not even know what is that!! Who cares so much la? Tomorrow I might not be here liao, enjoy first la, can arrr?). Yes, they want to be RICH and always envy of those neighbours or their friends going places. I can BUY that also ma, in fact I bought it MORE expensive than yours!! I flew to Paris to get that LV bag, you know. etc etc
Ok ... using my newly bought book, I tried to speak to my parents-in-law last night. I was explaining the most basic concept written there: Saving = Income - Expenses.
How do we increase our savings? Errr ... no no .. that is NOT for your financial-retarded society. Most of them(especially if they are young! For some, 40-50 are still considered as young as they still have NOT start to save?) DO NOT have much SAVINGS.
So, I was emphasing on REDUCING your expenses. A change of MINDSET is needed. Phew!! That is VERY VERY challenging, if not near impossible. Changing of habits of using money, changing of lifestyles, changing of your attitude towards money ... that is VERY personal and ... might be a TABOO to many to speak about it, publicly.
BUT ... I gave an example to my wife : Look, I have a colleague who is obese. It can be SEEN obviously. NO ONE will have the guts to tell him, hey ... you are REAL FAT. That is very unpleasant, rude and inconsiderate? So, we observed his diet ... taken a few pack of keropok, with coke during leisure time!! The amount of food, especially it is a buffet-style is too tempting. Anyway, we all just watched wiith awe ... no one speak about the BAD effects, as we do not wish to be known as BAD human? BUT ... someone have to advise him??! HELP him ... he is killing himself, physically(emotionally too, actually). THAT IS TABOO ... I m not so close to him(very different wave-length in terms of BRAIN) ... so, I reserved to be a GOOD human?
Well, I believe his wife, his family members, closed friends have advised him accordingly. So, I will be seen as 'keh-poh'(busy-body) if I ever said anything about his diet, health and err ... general well-being?
Getting about to my parents-in-law ... I told my wife, I m still an 'outsiders' but wish to help them with their financial situation ... Well, she is concerned as her parents retired with very little saving!!
Yes, Saving = Income - Expenses.
Once your income reduces or nearing-zero, you still need to USE money, right? If you fail to reduce your expenses, certainly your saving might be in RED ... NEGATIVE or DEFICITS. Choose your term, in short ... you will be pok-kai(bankrupt) soon.
Hence, you are left wiith not much of choices : Get yourself productive and earn some money. And reduce your un-necessary buyings/expenses. Once you committed to that(MANY prefer to AVOID the whole financial issue ... it is TABOO. Don't speak sex to me ... arr ... you so ham-sap!), your COMMON sense will lead you on HOW to increase your income and reduce your expenses so that at the end of the month, you have POSITIVE SAVINGS!!
After about half-hour or so of explaining that SIMPLE concept, I could only hope they are not offended, and saying that I m trying to 'control' their financial lives. I hv no intention to advise ANYONE on their own financial situation(I m not qualifiied, anyway) ... but I do hope that some of young ones(MY STUDENTS??) will read these and START young. Yes, TIME = MONEY, if you know how too convert that. To me, TIME is MONEY so so much so ... as I m struggling to llearn from ground-zero, and TEACHING in the same time? Can I teach you how to be RICH? hehe ...
Anyway, at least my wife appreciate that I took the RISK of being the BAD pperson of advising them to reduce their expenses. Yes, old-habits die hard ... my half-hour talk will NOT be effective, I know. But, that is the least I could do? I m speaking about something TABOO here, ok?
Now : SAY you are those FEW financial savvy dudes/babes, will you ADVISE your parents to be prudent, your friends to invest their money according, your wife/husband to tighten their belts next/next-next year?? And without asking anything in return? Please la ... not everything also you must benefit from it. Sometimes sharing what you know is POSITIVE, if the receivers being POSITIVE too. But, if you feel strong resistance, I will say that many of things better to keep it to ourselves. SHHHH ...
For salaried person(like me), our monthly pay-check could be our largest INCOME. Well, my part-time tuition classes complement my other part of my income. By writing this blog, I could also generating some 'income'. Hence, we should ALWAYS be thinking HOW to utilise FULLY our time to EARN more ... increase your income by working part-time, or perhaps start our own business to generate some side-income. Anything LEGALLY that could increase our $$.
We surely have fixed expenses --- FOOD. Of course we need a place to stay. How about some BASIC bills like electricity, water, phone, internet, Astro ... etc bills? We CAN minimise those if we are prudent.
For example, as I just got this new internet-bill, i will CUT off my Astro(Sorry Astro). That will balance my expenses. I could download some Cartoons for my son. Reduce in hours of watching TV will be good for him, anyway. Looking for the cheapest mobile-phone package will helps too. We do not need a fix line(sorry TM) ...
There are many more ways we could think of on HOW we could reduce our daily expenses. Yes, you may call me 'kiam-siap'(stingy). But, I m determine to SAVE every dollar possible. See?
Therefore, by continue to increase my income(if possible) and reduce my expenses, naturally I shall have surplus by end of the month. I have no problem applying a 10% of my salary into saving. What I did was ... a direct CUT of 10% of my salary into Maybank, as I took a Maybank loan(specially for ASB holders only) for ASB at 5% interest rate. ASB paying an average of 7% interest rate. I still gained a 2% interest while FORCING myself to SAVE 10% of my salary!! i hv done that for passed 3 years ... with 7 years to go. By the way, my wife is a sino-kadazan with ASB a/c. Lucky me ... hehe.
Now, the surplus of saving SHOULD be used to WORK. ASB giving good interest rate. If I am a 'pen-tan'(stupid egg) with money, I have no problem putting all my saving with ASB. It is surely one of the highest interest generated in Malaysia, rather than FD in any banks!!
But, I hv since learned that I need to get my money to work harder. You may want to look into UT or Bonds. Or save as much as possible now, and BUY a property(withdraw your EPF for this purpose too) when it is CHEAP and start to be a land-lord. Then, when the value of property apppreciates, you may want to SELL it off for huge profit and increase your holdings in more properties. That is just an idea ...
OR because I m exposed to STOCK MARKETS, I m learning to trade/invest. Yes, this is an express vehicles to WEALTH. Many in KLSE is half-right here. The only prooblem with them is tthey FORGOT that they need EDUCATION before they could profit from the markets!! INVEST in yourself before you THINK of profitting from market, that is what I m trying to say as that is what I AM DOING!!.
Are you still with me?? ever wonder how come a Maths teacher, who is driving a Kancil, could have such a thinking? Hmm ... so, don't look down on someone driving Kancil next time. He might be a future millioonaire, you know. He is driving Kancil as he wants to save MONEY on petrol, maintainance and no need to pay so much interest to the bank, right? Will you prefer to drive a TOYOTA(one of the TOP 10 most valuable brand in the WORLD) ... or going back to the lesson above? WHAT IS THAT?? Reduce your expenses-la ... hehe
周華健 - 愛相隨
Well, with new year days away ... we really need to seriously think on HOW we could increase our saving and use it to invest smartly.
We still have two more trading-days left in 2008.
Wish all well. Happy New Year. Shall we prosper together?
Friday, December 26, 2008
Hello darkness, my old friend,
I've come to talk with you again,
Because a vision softly creeping,
Left its seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Within the sound of silence.
In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone,
neath the halo of a street lamp,
I turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence.
And in the naked light I saw
Ten thousand people, maybe more.
People talking without speaking,
People hearing without listening,
People writing songs that voices never share
And no one dare
Disturb the sound of silence.
Fools said i,you do not know
Silence like a cancer grows.
Hear my words that I might teach you,
Take my arms that I might reach you.
And echoedIn the wells of silence
And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon God they made.
And the sign flashed out its warning,
In the words that it was forming.
And the signs said, the words of the prophets
Are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls.And whisper'd in the sounds of silence.
My Aunt SK and SP(my 'moms')
This song is specially for my Aunt SK who has been supportive in EVERYTHING I do. A true character in a HUMAN. My highest respect and I m very humbled by her humanity. Thank You, kor-kor. I wiill never be who I am without your guidance and supports. God Bless.
Also, to my Aunt SP who has been 'fierce' enough to discipline us kids. Without that, we will be spoilt brats/rascals ... and couldn't learn to be strong to face challenges. Thank you.
GPacket still in play ... the movement UP UP and flying higher is incredible.
Flying Without Wings <--- I m using broadband ... I m mobile. So, I m flying!! Hehe
10.20 am : Done with my celcom-broadband. It costs me rm450 to get the connection and also RM68 monthly. So, I will not need to drive to free wi-fi everywhere to get monitor markets. Anyway, the idea is to monitor US market as next year we are expecting DOW to go below 6500, and KLCI at 650.
KLCI at 864. Sime-cg at 0.110 vs 0.115. I m still q-ing for 0.11 for 30k units for the first stage of buying. I have sold 20k of IoI-cj at 0.15 days ago, and left with 30k units.
The volume is extremely thin ... no one in Markets. Many in holiday-mood or might be drunk somewhere. Hmm ... wake-up, fund managers. KLSE needs you all to goreng some counters. Hehe.
10.45 am : Putting in another queue : Resorts-ci at 0.07 for 50k units. Resorts at 2.19 now. KLCI at 867 and still trying climbing up. Turnover below rm40m. Real pathetic la.
11.50 am: I m away in SG and HK. KLCI at 867, with turnover RM56m. It is very silent ... I m missing KL, my family back home in festive season.
12.10 pm : Lunch time, I m hungry. GPac still making a show, at 1.18 now.
4.20 pm : KLSE is at a turtle-pace. And no one is out to support the turtles racing.
4.50 pm : KLCI at 864. Turnover of rm150m. Yes, from 9 am till almost closing now.
5.05 pm : KLCI closed slightly lower at 867.35, with the thinnest of volumes. Witout volume, it is without fuel. Any movements are NOT significant.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Toyota expects first loss in 70 years amid 'unprecedented emergency'
By Jonathan Soble in Nagoya
Published: December 23 2008 02:00 Last updated: December 23 2008 02:00
Toyota Motor warned yesterday that it would suffer its first loss in more than 70 years as the worldwide deterioration in vehicle demand took its toll on one of the best-run carmakers.
Katsuaki Watanabe, chief executive, said the Japanese vehicle maker would slash business investment, cancel executive bonuses and review its dividend pay-out as it cautioned that conditions were unlikely to improve in the short term.
"This is an unprecedented emergency," said Mr Watanabe. "Unfortunately, I cannot see now where the bottom will be."
The crisis at Toyota - for years the industry's most profitable producer - underscores the severity of a slump that has pushed weaker American carmakers to the brink of bankruptcy. President George W. Bush announced plans last week to lend General Motors and Chrysler $17.4bn to survive the next three months.
Mr Watanabe said the costcutting measures, which include a freeze on "virtually all" capacity expansion projects worldwide, were designed to allow Toyota to turn a profit on annual sales of as few as 7m vehicles.
Toyota sold 8.9m vehicles last year and entered 2008 expecting to become the first carmaker to top the 10m mark, before the credit crisis and recessions in the US, Japan and Europe caused an abrupt collapse in demand.
Yesterday, it cut its forecast for the year ending March 31 to 7.54m units, 15 per cent below last year's volume.
Moody's said it was reviewing its triple A debt rating on Toyota for a possible downgrade, following Standard & Poor's decision to review the company last week. Fitch lowered its rating from triple A last month. Toyota expects to generate an operating loss of Y150bn ($1.7bn) in the current fiscal year, reversing its forecast of a Y600bn profit.
Last year it earned a record Y2,270bn. At the net level, dividend payments from affiliates and other non-operating income are projected to generate a narrow profit of Y50bn, down 97 per cent year-over-year.
Toyota has not reported a loss since it began publishing its results in the 1940-41 fiscal year, although it said internal records showed a small loss in its first year of operation in 1937.
Mr Watanabe said he aimed to cut fixed costs by 10 per cent in the near term.
More of Toyota's 75 factories would move to single shifts and temporary shutdowns would become more frequent.
TEH : This is one of the many reports/articles I m reading regarding global economies. Please DO NOT believe our government that we will not be into recession. And do not believe that we SHOULD use our money to BUY BUY BUY.
Be prudent in our spending. SAVE is the key word. Brace ourselves.
At the moment, I could trade SGX through OSK(my broker) but could NOT have it live. In other words, I could not be totally in control(which is VERY important for day-traders). By the time my broker calls KL-HQ to place my order, things change. So, I still need to get a live-platform where I could fully trade online, may it be KLSE, SGX, HKSE or others. I m having the disadvantage being in Sabah(a RICH state but much behind other states in the west). We don't even have a REAL 3G. WiMax?? Not many trading in stock-markets online in Sabah, if they ever know what markets are in the first place.
Anyway, Sabah is a VACATION place ... people here are lay-back and relax-la brother ... Welcome to SABAH ... Land Below The Wind.
New Year Resolutions
I m one person who DO NOT believe in such. In general, I DO NOT believe what majority of what our society believe/do. I m VERY objective-oriented kinda person here. I could be very critical towards myself(that is BAD). I see my whole surrounding human as lack of UNDERSTANDING of what they are doing. Let's NOT elaborate on that. Hmmm ...
But, our society has this thing called NEW-YEAR resolutions!! Companies will have theirs too ... with a hope that the new-year will push them to improve themselves, a good and noble deed. BUT, most of them failed to realise their resolutions... due to many reasons(which they DONT even know why they failed!!).
If one resolution you need to put, I will suggest : I WANT TO LEARN TO TRADE or INVEST so that my MONEY will work for me, while I m working to earn money. Save and Invest. That was my resolution last DEC. Just like what we did in office, brain-storming what are needed to achieve our goals, I done a very comprehensive resolution(and realistic one) for my trading adventure....
How do I start?
Let me recall ... First of all, I know I need to change my MINDSET on how I look into MONEY and WEALTH. That is the FIRST and MOST important step we all need to get through. It might also be the MOST difficult part. WHY??
Because we all DO NOT prefer to change. Anything dealing with CHANGES, society will shun it. And we are talking about changing the WAY YOU THINK?? I could say ... near IMPOSSIBLE to MANY MANY of our un-educated society(Read Dali's writing on these to understand WHY you don't have IT in you, you might be just a spoilt brat!).
In my sense of un-educated, I m refering to FINANCE, ECONOMICS and INVESTMENTS. I was just one of the MANY un-educated degree holders when it comes to Finances. You may be a degree/PhD in Finance or Economics lecturer, but you may NOT gain anything economically or financially due to your MINDSET.
Example : Try to convince those punters q-ing at TOTO or MAGNUM not to buy lottery tickets but to BUY BJToto or MPHB, you will get ALL the resistances. You may even being viewed as an oobstacles to their path to wealth!! Don't explain to them their chances of winning or dividends yield please. Near impossible or ... worst?
Example : Try to convince those filial Fixed-Deposit people to buy Unit Trusts/Bonds, they will tell you ... No Thank You, I don't know what your BAD intentions are, but I m happy with my LOW FD interest. At least I save some money, right? Yes ... you are right to save in FD but errr ... you will never increase your wealth that way? It will be near impossible for change of mindset, agree?
Example : Try to convince those 80% of them who are trading/investing in markets and losing money that they need EDUCATION and change of the way they see stocks, you will be amazed that MANY of them THOUGHT what they are doing is RIGHT, just that their LUCKY-STAR yet to shine!!!
Give me more money to bet into this counter, I guarantee you that I will gain much more than I lost?? Hmm ... I could only shake my head in despair. No medicine to cure them ... they have GAMBLER mindset in them and THOUGHT KLSE is a platform to gamble to GET RICH QUICK.
If in the LOOONG strong bull(till Jan2008) you did not gain even rm50k(with your rm5k-10k), you are a REAL failure in market investing!! And if you still HOLD on to your buying in, say 2006-07, you are a ... errr ... loser in investment in markets. Contact me, then.
Do you need more examples? I could give you more of what I heard of from my lecturers(as I WAS one of them) or from my doctor/engineer friends. People WON'T change their MINDSET for MONEY, ok?
So, we need to change our MINDSET --- it is challenging as I m still struggling to change my wife and surrounding people mind-set, the ways they viewed MONEY. Most of them, if not ALL want to be RICH(don't be self-denial, will ya?) but most of them are NOT taught on HOW to attain such a so-called high status? To me, getting the EDUCATION is my GOAL(in order to teach trading/investment one day) ... gaining some profit from it is BONUS. Anyway, i won't mind accumulating some $$ from my trades as I have been doing for past 3/4 months. Hehe.
Once you have set your mind to CHANGE your un-educated mindset, you MIGHT be on a GOOD start. Then, I started to BUY(to invest in myself) books, The Edge, this lap-top to go online, open my CDS a/c ... these are TOOLS for me to do my work.
Then, I started to key-in ALL the KLSE counters prices in weekly basis(for JAN to APR) for me to familiarize with most of the stocks in KLSE. Then, I will look into each counters(begin with Sectors : My first were Construction and Property) ... their BUSINESS and related companies/subsidaries. I have started to BUY into KLSE ... Ranhill and Jaks. Then IGB.
While working hard for extra $$$, I save every dollars possible and make a commitment to bank in some $$$ in OSK to top-up my amount. Mind you, I was losing MONEY initially as the BEAR came in FEB. I don't even know what to do ... I was eaten alive by the bear!! Haha. I bought more investment books, some I read a few times!!
Graphs/charts naturally attractive to me ... so, I started to look into TA. Very confusing at first, and right till today, I still ignore many indicators. A simple support/resistance, MACD and MAV lines are good enough(while I m still learning ... ) for a time being. I m using the free downloaded Chart-Nexus. Many more good sites could be found and applicable. So far, I have NOT pay any money to get any of my charts etc etc, except to OSK where I could get 'free' TA in almost daily/weekly basis.
I taken a BOLD steps in April when I CUT off a few of my babes with a HUGE losses. If you bought in JAN, it is quite sure that you will lose-out when market dived in March ... in fact, if I have the the current MIND in March, I could have profitted HAPPILY. Instead, I was losing money ... few hard-earned thousands(and I don't dare to tell anyone, shy-la). But, in April ... i SOLD most of my holdings. Some not as bad, but some really badly burnt!
I took that step ... to start over again ... and looking into my learning, re-adjust what is not right(no such thing as wrong ... and the only wrong to me is failure to CHANGE your STUPID MINDSET).
At first, I admit it was hard not to think of your losses. I was so naive, but I never give-up. I have 5-years plan, remember? Luckily I could understand LEARNING and EDUCATION than most of people around. I started to see how market works, and local Economies in the whole. I started to get our of the box, so to speak. I started to look into commodities markets, global Economies and such.
When I finally cleared all my babes, I was single again. I feel FREE ... the freedom of not monitoring any of them. I m trying to apply I m learning, at the same time always updating myself with KNOWLEDGE and INFORMATION ... and once I feel I m ready to 'play' again, I moved in.
This time, trading is in my mind. Also, in August ... 08.08.08 i started this blog ... and started to record my investing idea ... and some stocks I m stalking. I have reduced many since then. Quality not quantity, please.
It is quite lengthy and difficult to describe everything that I done for the whole one year.
For those who DO NOT know how to change their mind-set, I will suggest that you BUY good books such as Zig-Zaglar, Napolean Hill, Anthony Robbin and such motivational books. Continuous to maintain POSITIVENESS in your lives, do that for 2/3 YEARS before even thinking of investing/trading!! In the mean time, SAVE as much as you can. Take one step at a time, attainable resolutions sure give us more confidence.
Wish you well, financially especially, for the year 2009. To me, the whole economic downturn and whatever crisis ... whatever bubble-bursting are GOOD news to me. Again, I do not take pleasure in others pain. Sorry. But, I m VERY excited as I know this might be my life-time opportunity for me to gain financially, if I know-how.
I do hope my readers, my friends and especially my family members will benefit from reading my blog as I sincerely wish to share my GOAL.
Share your resolutions with others will help to PUSH you to achieve your goals better. Get POSITIVE people around you for help. Ignore the many negative human.
God Bless in this blessed Christmas Day.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Learning Corner : NEVER regret and even look back into those stocks you have sold(for profit/loss). It is HISTORY, you can't re-do what done. Use your energy to FOCUS of what are currently in your hands. Learn and practise to trade/invest without EMOTIONS. Be analytical and rationale as markets are NOT.
9.45 am : KLCI at 871. TurnOver is only rm18m. Hmm ... all in festives mood.
10.05 am : In the midst of looking outside KLSE's window, I m also surfing for some properties in auctions. It will gives me the sense of what is going on in local property sector. It is ONE of the many indicators on our economy health. And, yes ... 3-5 years later, I do have an intention to buy into a property for investment purposes. KL, Penang, Johore or KK.
I always do my homework earlier ... and for property investment, I have been looking into KK market since 2 years ago. Yes, I am THAT stupid. Can you imagine that you survey the whole markets 5 years in advance, and not even buying one? Hmm ...
11.00 am : I m not looking at KLSE. Turnover at this ppoint is only RM58m! Hmm ... surely nothing to look, right? Only MK and GPac making some moves(be careful NOT to chase, as the movements are NOT REAL).
LCL moving back to 0.72, and I won't mind buying more at 0.70. Hehe.
Promoting My Blog?
How are you all? Please feel free to visit my Tradin Blog as I m VERY excited to share with others how I m learning to accumulate WEALTH by going into appropriate investment vehicles.
As you all may be aware of, the economic downturn in US WILL give us in Malaysia direct/indirect impacts. So, while we brace ourselves ... we need to be prudent too. AND more importantly, seeing this CRISIS as OPPORTUNITIES to gain some financial ground, on personal basis.
I hope you all will learn along with me and do give constructive comments.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
This is the e-mail I just sent to some my friends who knew me personally. Yes, it is easier to share with them but if they are going to see it positively, it is up to them. I have no expectation in this case.
11.35 am : KLSE diving now, at 866.Suddenly I putting everything that I m doing aside. Bought KNM at 0.395 ... my last bullets for this one. Yes, I m a believer that KNM's bottom at 0.395.
I bought some Sime-cg at 0.125 too. Market sentiments not so good today. I was thinking of Genting-cm. It drops and very attractive now.
12.45 pm : KLCI at 865.63. KNM at 0.40 and Resorts at 2.22.
Over to OZ, ASX downs 50 points; STI lost 7 points. RIO at 35.23 and G13 at 0.43. Noted.
1.35 pm : New Year Financial Resolutions?
Financial Success in 2009 by Doug Fabian
The New Year is just a couple of weeks away, and soon we'll all be resolving to not make the same mistakes we made in 2008. I suspect that many "Alert" readers can plead guilty to the charge of making bad mistakes this year, as conditions in the market were so treacherous that even the most nimble market dancers likely took a tumble or two.
If you haven't started making your financial New Year's resolutions for 2009, let me give you a little head start. Here's just a sneak peak at what I want smart investors to resolve to do next year:
I will prepare my family for a tough economic environment in 2009.
I will have a positive increase in my liquid net worth in 2009.
I will save in excess of 10% of my gross income in my retirement accounts.
I will save and safely secure at least three months of living expenses.
I will stop losing money on bad investments or bad investment advice.
As the year-end approaching, I m looking into my trading plans for next year and trying to get more idea on my investments/tradings resolutions.
DO read how to save money in 2009 : Link it here ---> http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/money-saving-tips/
Leslie Cheung- A Better Tomorrow
4.35 pm : KLCI at 867, with turnover less than rm300m. Hmm ... I m in shopping mall, but brought along my lap-top to check on markets closing. Hehe ...
p/s : I received 2 personalised SMS(my blog readers?) wishing me Merry Christmas. Yeah, I m very glad that my wordings here reaching out to some Malaysians ... that is my hope. And I m NEVER being selfish when it comes to knowledge.
These wordings encourage me further to continue to share my Trading Adventure ... it is my pleasure. Hope some will find it amusing, interesting, beneficial .... and enjoy it as a pleasurable reading. hehe.
Thanks everyone who have support me. And not forgetting those silly punters who came in here to look for TIPS(what to buy) or many e-mail I ignored as they are not so pleasant. Hehe. Smile. Be good ... as Santa is coming to KLSE?
I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha , Nebraska a few weeks back.It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!
The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.
Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totalling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.
The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, please read on.................
What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?
Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.
When do you decide to invest in a firm?
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)
What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?
I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people evenafter selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.
Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?
Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.
When do you plan to retire?
I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!
Why do stock market crashes happen?
Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."
What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?
I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Do you still hate Technology stocks?
With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."
How to think about Investing?
The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to saywhen you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated, not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?
What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?
I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have beenobserving the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.
Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street , New York ?
Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.
You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.
My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.
People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?
I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. I am an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.
I am a small time businessman from Dallas , Texas , what do I need to do to hit big time?
Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.
I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?
My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.
Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?
If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.
What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?
Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself - that would be my advice..
You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dont you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?
I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor.
Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile.
To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-"A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".
POSTED BY ZHUGE LIANG