Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Dollar Averaging : GTronic



GTronic : DIVED to support today ... see chart.

Let's us use the dollar-averaging method to buy into it.

Assuming we did NOT buy at RM6, ok? We shall start with RM4 ... just as similar to AEON, my previous recent example.

AEON : http://cpteh.blogspot.my/2016/07/dollar-averaging.html

Assume that each time we will buy RM10k (whatever amount we feel 'comfortable)

RM4.00 x 2,500 units = RM10k (done)

RM3.50 x 2,860 units = RM10k (done)
QUEUE TO BUY : RM3.00 x 3,330 units = RM10k

 As it is going lower, we shall continue to accumulate ... every 50cents lower.

The rule to SELL is every 50cents up for each level.

To modify this rule ... I shall place : start buying 50% below the peak.

Example : AEON ... peaked at RM4, we should only start buying at RM2.

GTronic high was at RM6.60 level ... half of it is RM3.30

So, we should only start to buy at RM3.30!! Using RM10k for each level ....

Level 1 : RM3.30 x 3030 units = RM10k

Level 2 : RM2.80 x 3570units = RM10k

This one looks more reasonable ... buying into whatever stocks we like, without using any technical support. Of coz, I am assuming that the stocks that we will buy is fundamentally strong ... GTronic giving dividends too ... just that their profit dropped 60% plus ...

Selling for level 1 is RM3.80 and so on.

Just sharing an idea ... work or not? Can try to back-test and check.

Time to zzzz

TEH

Dollar Averaging



Using AEON as an example, buy in stages and sell in stages too.

Assuming we bought at RM4. Each 50cents lower, we shall buy more using the same amount allocated.

Assume that each time we will buy RM10k (whatever amount we feel 'comfortable)

RM4.00 x 2,500 units = RM10k

RM3.50 x 2,860 units = RM10k

RM3.00 x 3,333 units = RM10k

RM2.50 x 4000 units = RM10k

Each 50cents up, SELL. Example ... we bought at RM2.50 ... sell at RM3.

For the RM3 portion, we shall sell at RM3.50.

No monitoring needed. Just key-in ... till done.

Well ... we do need to be discipline and also have enough cash in hand, consistently to collect the stocks that we like. IF POSSIBLE, buy those giving good consistent dividend (such as REITS).

Note : Personally, I disagree on such a buy 'style' but I do know some doing that.

TEH

Reminder : CUT LOSS


10.20 am : KLCI in slight red ... BAT dived some 10%. GTronic dived 6%. Nothing much discussed in the chatbox this morning ... as I was away - busy.

Didn't manage to short FKLI in opening ... and now it is in red. DOW dived 100plus points but recovered well to close 19points lower. Really ... nothing much in KLSE, except THHeavy is becoming lighter ... and those stuck inside are seeing some light too.

KKB, CMSB, HSL ... WCT ... well, the pan-borneo news. Hope one day I could really drive from KotaKinabalu to Kuching. I have only visited Kuching and Miri so far ... in my years staying in Sabah, but I have travelled most part of Sabah ... will like to go to Maliau-Basin and Kinabatangan again ... one day.

Well ... thinking of retiring. Haha ... another 3-5 yrs to go. Hopefully I m still physically able to carry-out my next journey ... next adventure --- retirement adventure.

Ok ok ... I was day-dreaming ... what am I supposed to write about today ... now? I have about half-hour before I need to run again.

Yes : CUT LOSS .... my favourite discussion and ... reminder to MANY of my readers, how important CUT-LOSS is. Let me check on ALAM .... yes yes, the one affected by O&G and owned by local funds, many retailers favourite ... or perhaps, Perisai ... not shielding well, tho.


This is ALAM's daily chart ... nothing much except that it is at LOW, breaking 32cents, we shall see historical low price. Please do not say ... 30cents, cheap leh. Sai-lang la ... haha ... kidding me?


Alam : Weekly chart ... showing from the peak RM1.60 level ... to current 32cents.

I do remember during cohort-5, it was trading at 50cents to 55cents range and we were discussing on buy 50cents, sell 55cents ... range-trading. Then, O&G started to be in play and it breakout of 55cents ... 60cents ... and rallied till RM1.50-RM1.60 level as crude-oil was around USD110 level. Today, we are seeing crude-oil price below USD50 ... halved ... but the stocks which rallied and dependent on these 'theme play' ... once the theme is over, we have to GET OUT.

It is over ... once 1.30 strong support broken. Game over. Exit. Cut-loss ... and forget.

Somehow ... many buying without exit plans. Somehow ... don't know why, cant really explained but there is a good book I read which explain the finance-behaviours of traders/investors. CUT LOSS and selling is one of the most difficult ACTION and DECISION to be made. It means ... admit wrong and move on. These are one of the missing traits in most retailers.

I will need to understand more on why majority will not be able to capitalise in market-crash. One of the reason is they are STUCK inside many stocks ... some with 10-20 stocks in hands and not able to take a decision to clear them off.

Yeah ... any O&G counters ... some more resilient ones such as Dialog or Yinson ... many in historical low.

O&G is just one sector ... which in strong downtrend and not finding bottom yet. There are many stocks going into new low level.

Time to go ... just a reminder about EXIT. It is crucially important.

TEH

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Inverse ETFs







My current homework ... we could short S&P500 ... or we could buy into INVERSE ETFs.

Interestingly complex ... but will look into it as when market-crash, these will shoot up ... A LOT.

So ... I m preparing for pointer #3 : Platforms and Instruments ... as when market is crashing, we want to be readied with CASH ... put in few platforms to trade few different instruments.

TEH

#2 : Prepare cash



2.15pm : Got a comment ... and also an e-mail ... asking me, why do I need to sell 'everything'?

My next class is 2.45pm ... so, I hope I could answer in a shorter post. I m nearly 50 ... very cheong-hei type.

First of all ... my pointers #2 : Accumulation of bullets. If you have missed the post, I will try to find it and place it in 'page'.



One of the things I need to do is : SELL

I have three options : 1. Overdraft 2. Re-finance 3. SELL of my current apartment. It has doubled in price.

By selling it off, I could clear off my housing-loan and having some cash in hands!! Then, I will put the money safely into ASB (giving a good 7%) while waiting for crash!! Not to be used.

It will take me some time for me to be able to advertise, getting an agent and sell it off, anyway. So ... hope it wont take tooo long and market crashing before my cash is readied?

As for the office, decision to stop renting the office and sell off the furnitures (tables, chairs, whiteboard and everything!) so that I could re-coup some cash ... and not needing to pay monthly rentals(plus bills).

Whether it is worth or not ... I m still not sure. I don't know. I m just executing my plans ... preparing for the crash. Whether markets will crash or not, I do not know either. What I do know is ... IF ONE DAY market crashing down, I m prepared ... with cash/bullets to buy HUGELY.

Look ... there are two VITAL points to capitalise in market-crash :

1. SELL before it crashes

2. BUY when it is recovering

These simple points ... but 80% of retailers WILL miss ... and history will repeat itself.

Majority of retailers will STUCK inside stocks .... and could not cut-loss when market-crashing. A good example is O&G counters ... there are still SO SO many of them stuck inside. PROPERTY counters too ... the rally was over long time ago but they are still holding to the paper-loss. The PENNY-GST rally ... over too. The export-oriented stocks ... some still rallying ... some in downtrend.

MANY still inside .... buying yet failing to sell. Failing to cut-loss or sell befoe market-crash is a huge mistake as violated the pointer #1 : Capital Preservation.

Ok ... do let me know if anyone wish to buy my foldable bike for half-price ... or my books too. I will live my life frugally ... and in minimal-expenses ... and I told my wife/kids too. No more dinners @ restaurants ... no more expensive toys etc etc.

I need the CASH.

How do you see a RM10 note?

I m seeing it as RM20 to RM50 or RM100 ... as I could use it to generate profit ... during the crash.

So ... my RM100k might turn to be RM500k after the crash, see?

Do be prepared ... prepare as much cash as possible. SAVE ... be frugal. Live way below our means ... at least for this coming years .... I hope it wont crash soon too. I need to prepare .... more cash.

So ... I will be working at nights and Sundays too ... giving tuition and teach trading.

Time to go ... to give tuition ... to earn that CASH and SAVE inside the bank.

TEH

Tough decisions


Morning ... DOW minus 77 points.

At the moment, I m going through some tough decision-making times ... don't know if I m making the 'right' ones .... left to be seen in coming 3-5 yrs.

To start with, I sold my KK's apartment last Dec ... that was a difficult decision, an emotional one ... but a must to clear.

Now ... I m needing to prepare more cash and decided to sell my current apartment. That will take some time for me to settle ... hopefully by mid of next year, things are done.

It has been 4 years I m using my current office ... and I m letting it go too. So, I will be busy selling items and hope to re-coup some cash too ...

How about stocks? well .... I have sold many stocks, cut-loss in those HKSE's stocks I bought and have to move on ... I have to preserve the capitals ... tying the loose-ends and knots.


In order to focus in making these decisions ... I decided not to add in any new events or activities. Yeah .... FOCUS ...

I will have to let go of my office ... as it is under-utilised and I want to save some money on the rentals.

I will want to sell off my apartment ... to get some cash in hand and discipline enough to save (into ASB) while waiting for the crash.

Letting it go ... selling is one of my pointers in "accumulating bullets". Sell ... and sell more. Selling anything that I could SELL ... including BOOKS.



Chairs for sale : I have 20 of these chairs in my office, for sale. Half-price, very good condition.


Banquet-tables : I have about 15 of these tables (120cm x 60cm) for sale.

No matter how tough the decision could be ... I know I have to move on. I simply need to get back into act before market-crashing down. So ... I will have to keep moving ... into my plans.

Yeah ... selling my apartment will affect my 'tenant' ... rented to a good friend.

Yeah ... closing off the office will affect many of the lecturers who are renting my place here and also my ToastMaster meeting place ... I have to reluctantly informing everyone about it.


Last Friday night ... I gave a book-sharing session to few who attended (the regulars) and told them about the importance of doing what others not doing ---- FAILING.

We should THINK positively that we CAN ... and continue to do what we need to do ... despite of may criticism as those criticising us do not see our points or finding faults in our doings due to their own lacking.

So ... as I have written out my plans ... of waiting to capture the market-crash, I have to keep moving and doing what needed .... despite going against many uncomfortable situations at the moment. It needs to be executed as planned .... I do not know how long will it takes for the crash to be here ... but I m certainly nervous ... and hope I will have enough 'time' to be there ... prepared.

Crash in 2016 ... they were yelling.

Crash in 2017 ... someone said it is certain.

Crash in 2018 ... many predicting the 10-yr cycle of market crash ...

Crash in 2019 and beyond ... have you heard of these? If not, then most probably it will only crash around 2020.

Whatever it is ... I need to carry on my plans ... so, have to stay focus ... stay strong.

Here is an article about things successful people do ... in daily basis. I could not be discipline enough to do many of them!!

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/275718

This Thu ... I will have a coffee-date with a reader and Friday night, I will attend a market-talk.

Well ... sitting here, I m still wondering if these few decisions I made recently will do me good. Somehow, I knew I have to move on ... carry on my tasks.

Will write about applying for a job!! Any vacancies .... contact me.

TEH

Monday, July 25, 2016

Hot Stock : TH-Light


Monday morning ... good morning.

KLCI green ... no more Brexit fear, no more 1MDB news to create the fear ... 1USD = MYR4.07



Gadang hitting resistance after running up like crazy due to good-reports news. Sell ... or wait for breakout.



THHeavy : The crazy fella shot to 14-15 cents now ... haha ... see the two pieces of news ... one was in The Star .. another The Edge ... helping the stocks to recover? TH = tabung haji ... the operator?

KLCI at 1662 level ... DOW going into BULL rally ... so, I still feel we should BUY into US rather than KL.

As I have sold most of my stocks, I am not chasing any ... just wait for the correction to be here. In the mean time, more time to READ about fundamentals and trading strategies, while listening to clips ... about investing-trading.

We do not need to be active to trade in daily basis. We have to let-it-go ... and to clear our mind.

Wait for opportunities.

Time to go to gym and a dip into the swimming pool.

TEH

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Trader : Anton Kreil





10 Secrets to Achieve Financial Success

1. Respect Money and be Indifferent towards it (20:59)
2. Rent to Own – Define Assets and Liabilities Properly (42:33)
3. Build and Own your own Infrastructure (50:16)
4. Go Travelling, Get Perspective, Get your Dream Life (1:01:00)
5. Know that Risk is Subjective not Two Dimensional (1:07:33)
6. Seek out Alternative Education (1:17:45)
7. Learn to Value your Time Properly (1:24:30)
8. Ditch the Smart Phone (1:33:12)
9. Mainstream Media is Useless. Don’t consume it (1:40:51)
10. Choose Role Models that suit Your Objective (1:45:09)

A good collection.

TEH

RM1 : Evergreen

There are many stocks trading around RM1 ... I called them RM1-stocks. It is a critical value of being called a penny-stock. Any stock trading below RM1 is a penny-stock.

I shall start with our first candidate : Evergreen


Actually, this is an adjusted chart : bonus 1-for-2 in Jan2016.


In Jan2015, Evergren breakout of 45cents ... and started to rally. The whole furniture or so-called export-oriented sector moved. It peaked around RM1.60 level ... around Jan2016, after a whole year of uptrend.

So ... last Dec, I have asked my trading group to exit the whole sector!! Do not fall in love with our stocks once the rally is over ... catch another theme, instead.

It dived to RM1 ... and now, our RM1 is the strong support. Once RM1 broken, technically we shall see huge down side (reminded me of FLBhd broken RM2 strong support and now trading way below RM2)

Next support for Evergreen is seen around 80cents.

Can we buy Evergreen around RM1 level now? YES ... we can trade it and buy around RM1, with the fact that we MUST cut-loss if RM1 support broken.



If I have caught it much higher, say RM1.30, should I average it down?

Answer : NO. Well ... it was a mistake to buy around RM1.30 without exiting point. If one bought RM1.30 when it was uptrend, take profit in stages and one could use trailing-stop to able us to exit with profits as stock moving higher. BUT if one bought RM1.30 as it dives ... that is a mistake too. We should not be catching a knife .. but ... averaging it will not be right, either. We could try to cut-loss if it rebound to resistance around RM1.18 level, or if RM1 broken ... we have to sell.

Trading is THAT difficult ... making hard decision.

Hope this post will be used as a learning-experience.

Note : I will be watching here and make an update.

Have a nice weekend.

TEH





Saturday, July 23, 2016

Stock Watch : Acostec (update)


25th June : http://cpteh.blogspot.my/2016/06/learning-corner-acostec.html



On 28th June, it ex-dividend 2.5cents. This chart is adjusted. Sideway now ... support at 75cents. Buying around 75cents to sell around 81 cents. OR wait for next stage of breakout of 81cents.

Note : Trade at own risk .. this is just an update ... watching stage-5.

TEH

Preparing to profit






What are the best things to invest in if you think the market will crash?

Francis Hunt a technical analysis trader and coach comments. In the long run this becomes a fundamental discussion; we are currently in a fantasy kind business environment where no real interest is being paid; the liquidity this is creating is not finding its way to small businesses. In the long run we will likely have a black swan event; a market reset correction if one may but it will be unexpected. Keep cash alternatives in intrinsic physical metals; do not be highly leveraged in property. I think anyone that resets an imbalance is beneficial in the long run.

Replay the old clips ...

TEH


Friday, July 22, 2016

Friday is a rest day




Morning ... KLCI in red, minus 4 points. Nothing much ... no panic selling. DOW minus 77 points, red after days of green since breakout to new high.



FKLI is green @ 9.45 now. I just came to café ... for nice music and nice coffee.

I have sold most of my holding yesterday ... but Gadang shooting up higher today due to 'good news' report. Sitting on cash ... listening to music, smell coffee ... and relax ... while blogging.

Talking about coffee ... I do have two coffee-date next week. One with my ex-tratle ... who wish to meet to discuss about market-crash preparation and another with a reader (from Sabah too ... and since he said he really like my blog posts, I make a point to see him). I do still have 10+ in list ... will call them out for my free coffee ...

Two Sundays ago ... I had a coffee-date with an ex-banker who retired but still actively trading forex!! As I do not trade forex ... we discussed about strategies (and he is using RSI-10, which I could understand) ... time frame and some significant chart-patterns. I forgotten to write about my coffee-dates and few more too ...



Book-sharing : Tonight I will have a book-sharing session ... those interested, could come join me 8pm to 9.30pm. I will talk about my failures ... base on the book above.

Math Tuition : Got 2-3 calls from parents ... wanting to check if i could coach their son/daughter Maths!! Great!! Need to promote more. haha.

Today is my girl's 8th Birthday too ... will bring her to have her favourite pasta-with-clams.

So ... I sold off most yesterday ... so that i could relax today, to be with her and also prepare for my tonight's talk with a small group of book-sharing followers.

Time to make a move again ... till then, off

TEH

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Goreng Stocks : Be aware


Hot popular stocks yang di-goring ...

#1 : XOX



XOX resistance 17cents ... playing on the news about Macquire ... I think.


How do we know it is goring type of stocks? The chart shown the 12cents to 70cents, then slammed down. See these kinda chart, it is goring. No touch for newbies.

Check also the fundamentals ... most of them are losing-money companies.

#2 : AMedia


AMedia : See the downtrending chart ... suddenly activated with high volume. That is called goring-stock ... and some distributions to trap retailers going on. Watch.


Buy 10cents, sell 15cents for 50% ... right? Yeah right ... think you can beat the operators? Think again ... I have advised the new tratle who came for my workshop last Sat not to punt into these as he is playing with 'fire'. Being only 2 months into market, he is risking himself ... too exposed.

#3 : PDZ


Long time no see PDZ ... last time goring from 8cents to 40cents ... some MARA-news la, Halim Saad etc etc ...


There ... from 6cents buy ... sell 9 cents. Profit is 50%.


EAH : Buy 6cents ... sell 9cents? Sell 12 cents?

9.45 pm e-meeting : https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/880224245

Note : This is to show how the goring the stocks ... and many greedy retailers punt into. If profit ... ok. If lose ... must cut-loss, can?

Many of these losing-money companies stocks will be in play and will be in play further to distribute to un-known newbies and to those who STUCK inside. Will discuss little about it in tonight's e-meeting.

TEH

KLCI : Bearish


Learning Corner : Stochastic


KLCI as shown this morning to my trading-group as I sold most of my holdings. As it gapped down, stochastic will be bearish.


KLCI closed below 1660 level, minus 12 points. As stochastic is above 80, we considered that as OVERBOUGHT and when it crossed, we called it bearish-crossover.

It is not what these indicators showing ... it is WHAT we do is more important. So ... it is not knowledge in technical-analysis, it is our actions.

Now ... holding cash, what is next? Wait ... wait for 1620 again? That is our strong support.

With the 1MDB coming back to haunt us, it will be safer to hold cash and wait.

TEH

1MDB in news : Bad for markets



Morning ... waking up to see news about 1MDB splashing on my FB's wall ... I do not read about politics anymore as it will be depressing me further ... enough of bad-comments on our country.

On the positive note ... DOW going into new high, yet again to close at 18695.03 level. Congrats ... we are in bull-rally ... breakout from recent high of 18350 level.


KLCI is not going into new high? Why? The 1MDB news still haunting our markets ... and MYR. But ... we are well-supported ... any selling will see local funds to support that selling. So ... we are not worry YET?

Selling and reducing our positions is one of decisions we could make. Diverse away from MYR too.

Facing reality, Malaysia is going down-hill from here ... brace ourselves. It is saddening me to see the poor state of our country. I will still stay in Malaysia ... and always will. But ... financially, we need to be in good state to sustain ... locally.

Time to watch market opening.

Do read more about 1MDB ... as the stories unfold. I m not interested to know further ...

TEH